1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:04,660 Speaker 1: The company holding 4 % of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist is getting thrown out of 2 00:00:04,660 --> 00:00:09,480 Speaker 1: one of the biggest families of stock indexes on the planet. It's set to trigger billions of 3 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:14,020 Speaker 1: dollars worth of forced selling, and the clock is already ticking. In 43 days, at the 4 00:00:14,020 --> 00:00:19,340 Speaker 1: closing bell on November 30th, every fund tracking MSCI's global stock indexes has to sell 5 00:00:19,340 --> 00:00:24,620 Speaker 1: Michael Saylor's strategy, up to $2 .8 billion of it. Half of financial media is calling 6 00:00:24,620 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: this the start of another Black Monday, and ironically enough, tomorrow is the anniversary 7 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 1: of Black Monday, the worst day in stock market history. Saylor went on Bloomberg TV and 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 1: said that the money involved is too small to matter. I think both camps are reading this 9 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: completely wrong. The crash camp is missing that this forces zero Bitcoin onto the market, 10 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 1: but the too small to matter crowd is missing two things. The timing of the sale and the 11 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:54,220 Speaker 1: dangerous precedent it hands every other stock index committee, including the one that runs 12 00:00:54,220 --> 00:00:59,820 Speaker 1: the S &P 500. And this matters to you whether you own Bitcoin, whether you own MSTR, or 13 00:00:59,820 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: you've never touched either one. Because the funds being forced to sell are the same index 14 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:10,940 Speaker 1: funds sitting inside most 401ks in America. Strategy stock fell almost 10 % on Friday on 15 00:01:10,940 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 1: the news, and Bitcoin fell about 1%. And this morning, Saylor signaled that he's buying 16 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:21,220 Speaker 1: more Bitcoin anyway. Bitcoin is sitting at about $81 ,000 right now. So by the end of this 17 00:01:21,220 --> 00:01:25,020 Speaker 1: video, you're going to know exactly how big this force selling really is and why Bitcoin 18 00:01:25,020 --> 00:01:29,740 Speaker 1: barely flinched, the enormous wave of Wall Street money being built to hit Bitcoin that 19 00:01:29,740 --> 00:01:34,980 Speaker 1: makes this force $2. billion sale look like a rounding error and what all of this means for 20 00:01:34,980 --> 00:01:38,740 Speaker 1: the price of your Bitcoin. And stick around at the very end because I'm going to show you 21 00:01:38,740 --> 00:01:43,460 Speaker 1: why $100 ,000 won't be the wall that it was last cycle, why Bitcoin is slated to blow 22 00:01:43,460 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: straight through it, and the math on why this bull run could be the biggest dollar move 23 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 1: that Bitcoin has ever made. Let's get into it. So there are two things I want you to hold 24 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: in your head for the rest of this video. The first is a moment, the closing bell on 25 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:01,100 Speaker 1: November 30th. And the second is a number. It tells you whether the biggest corporate buyer 26 00:02:01,100 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 1: of Bitcoin on earth keeps buying through all of this. And right now, it's sitting around 27 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: one. We're coming back to both of those. So here's how we got here in the first place. On 28 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:15,860 Speaker 1: October 15th, after the market closed, MSCI locked in rules that put strategy on track to 29 00:02:15,860 --> 00:02:21,020 Speaker 1: get removed from its stock indexes. On November 11th, 24 days from now, it publishes the 30 00:02:21,020 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: final list, and at the close on November 30th, the cut takes effect, and every fund that 31 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: tracks those indexes has to sell. MSCI builds the world and international indexes that 32 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:36,260 Speaker 1: trillions of dollars of index fund money follow. It created a brand new category called non 33 00:02:36,260 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 1: -operating companies, meaning businesses that mainly hold assets instead of running an 34 00:02:40,640 --> 00:02:45,820 Speaker 1: operation, and when it tested companies against that rule, three of them failed. Strategy, 35 00:02:46,100 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: the biggest by far, MetaPlanet, Japan's version of Strategy, and a company called Yellow 36 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: Cake that just holds physical uranium. The test never mentions Bitcoin explicitly, but it 37 00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 1: catches anyone who holds an asset and basically sits on it. Saylor went straight at the 38 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:07,060 Speaker 1: logic. He said MSCI counts oil, natural gas, land, and machinery as capital. And in his 39 00:03:07,060 --> 00:03:12,300 Speaker 1: words, refusing to do the same for Bitcoin is a value judgment, with MSCI acting like an 40 00:03:12,300 --> 00:03:17,300 Speaker 1: unregistered financial advisor. And that's why this matters far past just one stock. 41 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:22,380 Speaker 1: Strategy already got passed over for the S &P 500 once last year. If the biggest index 42 00:03:22,380 --> 00:03:26,500 Speaker 1: provider in the world now says that Bitcoin on a balance sheet doesn't count as running a 43 00:03:26,500 --> 00:03:32,100 Speaker 1: business, every other committee gets cover to say the exact same thing. JP Morgan puts 44 00:03:32,100 --> 00:03:37,780 Speaker 1: another $8 .8 billion of selling at risk if they do. So let's take this in three parts. The 45 00:03:37,780 --> 00:03:42,060 Speaker 1: selling, the money coming in and what it actually means for the price of Bitcoin. So 46 00:03:42,060 --> 00:03:46,100 Speaker 1: starting with part one, the selling, because this is the number scaring people. Funds 47 00:03:46,100 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: tracking MSCI's indexes hold about 3 .1 % of strategy shares, roughly 13 million of them. 48 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:57,460 Speaker 1: Estimates for what they'll have to dump run from about $1 .9 billion up to JP Morgan's $2 49 00:03:57,460 --> 00:04:02,980 Speaker 1: .8 billion estimate. That sounds like a crushing amount until you set it next to how much 50 00:04:02,980 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 1: of this stock actually trades. Take a look at this chart. Just one week of strategy 51 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:13,700 Speaker 1: trading, the week ending October 9th, was $15 .3 billion. An average single day of trading 52 00:04:13,700 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 1: for strategy stock this year is $2 .9 billion. So the entire forced sale that everyone is 53 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:25,900 Speaker 1: in a panic about fits inside less than one normal trading day for the stock. Now I'm not 54 00:04:25,900 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 1: going to tell you it's nothing, because the timing is what makes this thing really stink. 55 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:35,500 Speaker 1: Index funds don't spread their selling out. Their job is to match the index exactly. So 56 00:04:35,500 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 1: they will sell at the closing bell on the day that the change takes effect, which means 57 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:46,280 Speaker 1: most of that $2 .8 billion hits in a single day on November 30th. Every trader on Wall 58 00:04:46,280 --> 00:04:51,280 Speaker 1: Street knows the date and roughly the size, so they get there first. They front run it and 59 00:04:51,280 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 1: they sell ahead of time in planning to buy the stock back from the index funds at the 60 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,940 Speaker 1: close. If we go back and look at 30 years worth of data from other stocks getting dropped 61 00:04:59,940 --> 00:05:05,220 Speaker 1: from the S &P 500, the Russell, and the NASDAQ, it shows the same thing. Nearly all of the 62 00:05:05,220 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: price damage happens between the announcement and the deadline. Well, you watched it start 63 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 1: on Friday. Strategy closed down 9 .5 % at $136 .72, its ugliest day in months. 64 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 1: Now, look at what Bitcoin did on the exact same day, and it'll tell you everything you need 65 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: to know about whether or not this actually matters for Bitcoin. From Thursday's close to 66 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:31,340 Speaker 1: Friday's close, Bitcoin fell about 1%. That's half of what the NASDAQ lost and about a 67 00:05:31,340 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: tenth of strategies dropped. It never broke $80 ,000, and it's held there all weekend. Zoom 68 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 1: out to October 2nd, and it's the same picture. Strategy stock is down about 15%, chip 69 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:48,060 Speaker 1: stocks are down almost 14%, and Bitcoin is down just 4%. For reference, that's better than 70 00:05:48,060 --> 00:05:52,980 Speaker 1: the NASDAQ and the S &P 500. The index is that Bitcoin is typically more sensitive than. 71 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: For an asset people still call too volatile to own, Bitcoin just held its ground while 72 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:02,840 Speaker 1: basically everything around it that it's supposed to be correlated to is blowing up. I can 73 00:06:02,840 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: already hear the comments, wait a minute, Joe, billions of dollars are for selling and 74 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 1: Bitcoin is supposed to shrug that off. Well, here's why it can. Not just the price data 75 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:16,940 Speaker 1: that I showed you a moment ago, but when index funds sell strategies stock, not one Bitcoin 76 00:06:16,940 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: gets sold. The funds just sell shares to other buyers of shares. Think about it like a 77 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 1: house getting sold. The deed changes hands, but the house doesn't move an inch. You don't 78 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:31,460 Speaker 1: pick it up and move it somewhere else. Strategy is roughly 850 ,000 Bitcoin, worth about 79 00:06:31,460 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 1: $69 billion to stay right on its balance sheet. But there's one place that this can hurt 80 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:41,060 Speaker 1: Bitcoin, and it's that number that I told you to hold on to at the beginning. Strategy buys 81 00:06:41,060 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 1: Bitcoin by selling new stock and a dividend -paying share called STRC, and then it turns 82 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: that cash into new Bitcoin purchases. Well, that only works well when the stock trades for 83 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: more than the Bitcoin behind it. The number for that is called MNAV, or the ratio of the 84 00:06:56,000 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 1: market value to the net asset value, which is basically the stock's price compared with the 85 00:07:00,840 --> 00:07:06,380 Speaker 1: Bitcoin the company actually owns. Above 1, every new share strategy sells brings in more 86 00:07:06,380 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: Bitcoin than it gives away. And at 1, the machine stalls. Well, right now, it's sitting 87 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:16,860 Speaker 1: right around 1, and $2 .8 billion of force selling makes it harder to push back above. So 88 00:07:16,860 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: for a stretch, the single biggest corporate buyer of Bitcoin on Earth could buy less. And 89 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:26,980 Speaker 1: that's a real headwind into November. And yet, the people paid to study this stock aren't 90 00:07:26,980 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: selling. They're actually more bullish on it than basically everything else in the market. 91 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:35,780 Speaker 1: Take a look right here. This board ranks the biggest stocks in the market by how bullish 92 00:07:35,780 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 1: analysts are on them. Using Wall Street ratings plus market analysts scored on how often 93 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:44,180 Speaker 1: they've been right, with the paid promoters totally thrown out. So this is an objective 94 00:07:44,180 --> 00:07:50,100 Speaker 1: analysis. And over the last 30 days, 57 analysts weighed in on MSTR, Strategies Common 95 00:07:50,100 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: Stock, and it came out 92 % bullish. For reference, this ranked first on the board, ahead 96 00:07:56,320 --> 00:08:01,060 Speaker 1: of every single one of the Magnificent Seven, the most valuable companies in the world. The 97 00:08:01,060 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: bear case they list is Bitcoin itself collapsing. They are more bullish on strategy stock 98 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: than any other stock in the US stock market today. And none of them list the MSCI removal 99 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: as a reason to be bearish. And since August 2020, right before its first Bitcoin buy, 100 00:08:16,340 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 1: strategy is up more than 1000 % through Friday's drop, against 128 % for the S &P 500 and 101 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 1: 137 % for the NASDAQ. So to say this differently, a rule changed, so a computer is being 102 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:34,660 Speaker 1: forced to sell. The people who actually looked are more bullish than ever. So that's part 103 00:08:34,660 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 1: one, that's the selling. Part two is what's lining up on the other side of it. And it's a 104 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:43,860 Speaker 1: part that almost nobody's putting next to this doom and gloom headline about MSCI's ruling. 105 00:08:43,860 --> 00:08:48,540 Speaker 1: On Thursday, the same day that MSCI published his decision, Charles Schwab, one of the 106 00:08:48,540 --> 00:08:53,980 Speaker 1: biggest brokerages in America, finished rolling out Bitcoin access to its customers. Schwab 107 00:08:53,980 --> 00:09:00,980 Speaker 1: has 40 .3 million active brokerage accounts and $13 .33 trillion in client assets. Trading 108 00:09:00,980 --> 00:09:05,980 Speaker 1: opened up in May, and as of this week, customers can now move Bitcoin in and out, not just 109 00:09:05,980 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 1: the Bitcoin ETFs. Vanguard, the giant of index fund investing and a firm that spent years 110 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:15,620 Speaker 1: refusing to touch Bitcoin, opened its platform to the Spot Bitcoin Funds last December, and 111 00:09:15,620 --> 00:09:20,260 Speaker 1: it has more than 50 million brokerage customers and over $11 trillion. In a Bank of 112 00:09:20,260 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 1: America's Merrill, advisors can now recommend putting 1 % to 4 % of a client's portfolio in 113 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:30,440 Speaker 1: Bitcoin, retirement accounts included, with no minimum net worth. If you just put Schwamm 114 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:36,060 Speaker 1: and Vanguard together, that's roughly $24 trillion in client assets that now sits one click 115 00:09:36,060 --> 00:09:41,100 Speaker 1: away from Bitcoin. If Schwa's clients put 1 % of their assets into Bitcoin, the low end of 116 00:09:41,100 --> 00:09:47,740 Speaker 1: what Merrill's advisors can now recommend, that's $133 billion. That's roughly 47 times the 117 00:09:47,740 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 1: entire forced sale of strategy stock, which, to remind you again, is lower than one day of 118 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:57,900 Speaker 1: strategy's volume. Coming from one brokerage at the most conservative allocation on the 119 00:09:57,900 --> 00:10:02,500 Speaker 1: table. The biggest banks are building the plumbing, too. Deutsche Bank, the largest bank in 120 00:10:02,500 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: Germany, got the regulatory green light on October 12th, just a few days ago, and it says 121 00:10:06,560 --> 00:10:11,180 Speaker 1: Bitcoin custody for its corporate and institutional clients is just weeks away with Asia 122 00:10:11,180 --> 00:10:16,700 Speaker 1: coming next. And the money that's already inside isn't leaving. The U .S. spot Bitcoin ETFs 123 00:10:16,700 --> 00:10:22,740 Speaker 1: hold about 1 .28 million Bitcoin, more than $105 billion, after roughly $57 billion of net 124 00:10:22,740 --> 00:10:27,940 Speaker 1: inflows since they launched. One asset manager surveyed 15 of the largest institutions in 125 00:10:27,940 --> 00:10:32,540 Speaker 1: the world, so pensions, endowments and sovereign wealth funds, and not one of them cut its 126 00:10:32,540 --> 00:10:38,740 Speaker 1: Bitcoin during the brutal 50 % drop from our all -time high at $126 ,000 to $58 ,000. 127 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:44,060 Speaker 1: Several of them bought even more. At least one sovereign wealth fund sold part of its gold 128 00:10:44,060 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: in currency reserves just to buy more Bitcoin. That's how much the large institutions are 129 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:53,460 Speaker 1: valuing Bitcoin right now. And Washington has a proposed rule on the table that would open 130 00:10:53,460 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 1: 401k plans, one of the largest pools of savings in the country to Bitcoin. It isn't final 131 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:03,540 Speaker 1: yet, but it's moving. I want to be honest about one thing. The doors are open, and the 132 00:11:03,540 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 1: money hasn't fully walked through them yet. The ETFs have seen about $760 million of net 133 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 1: outflows since October 7th. But compare the size of what's being built with the size of 134 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: what MSCI is forcing out. On one side, $2 .8 billion of a single stock on a single day. On 135 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: the other, tens of millions of investors and tens of trillions of dollars that just got a 136 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:28,300 Speaker 1: Bitcoin button. So that's the answer to what Wall Street kicking Saylor out does to 137 00:11:28,300 --> 00:11:32,540 Speaker 1: Bitcoin. It hits the stock, it could slow the biggest corporate buyer for a brief period of 138 00:11:32,540 --> 00:11:37,660 Speaker 1: time, but ultimately it forces zero Bitcoin to be sold onto the market, while the biggest 139 00:11:37,660 --> 00:11:42,540 Speaker 1: firms on Wall Street build the on -ramps for everyone else. But that still leaves part 140 00:11:42,540 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: three, the number that matters most for your Bitcoin. In a minute, I'll show you what 141 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: Saylor did this morning and why the next trip to $100 ,000 and beyond should look nothing 142 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:55,100 Speaker 1: like the last one. Real quick, a word from today's video sponsors, these guys make this 143 00:11:55,100 --> 00:11:59,820 Speaker 1: content possible. Most people watching this own Bitcoin the exact same way. They paid full 144 00:11:59,820 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 1: price on an exchange, but a smaller group of business owners, family offices, and investors 145 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:08,620 Speaker 1: is getting theirs a different way. They own the machines that make it. You buy the miners 146 00:12:08,620 --> 00:12:12,620 Speaker 1: and Simple Mining hosts and run them at their Iowa facilities on industrial power rates 147 00:12:12,620 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 1: you'd never be able to get on your own. The Bitcoin goes straight from your machines to 148 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:20,460 Speaker 1: your wallet. There are a few reasons this matters right now. First, cheap power can let you 149 00:12:20,460 --> 00:12:24,740 Speaker 1: acquire Bitcoin below the price that everyone else pays. And second, if you had a big 150 00:12:24,740 --> 00:12:29,620 Speaker 1: income year, miners count as computer equipment and qualifying buyers can write off the 151 00:12:29,620 --> 00:12:34,680 Speaker 1: entire purchase in year one. Simple Mining runs over 40 ,000 machines and was ranked Iowa's 152 00:12:34,680 --> 00:12:39,320 Speaker 1: fastest growing company on the Inc. 500. Grab their free 2027 Bitcoin Mining Blueprint at 153 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:44,580 Speaker 1: simplemining .io slash joe. That's simplemining .io slash joe. Quick note, this one's also 154 00:12:44,580 --> 00:12:48,900 Speaker 1: sponsored by Salt. What actually stops people from borrowing against their Bitcoin isn't 155 00:12:48,900 --> 00:12:53,900 Speaker 1: the Wraith, it's a picture of your Bitcoin being forced sold at the bottom of a drawdown by 156 00:12:53,900 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 1: an algorithm while you're asleep. Well, Salt Shield by Salt Lending is the answer to that. 157 00:12:58,940 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: It's an optional upgrade to your Bitcoin -backed loan, it's a one -time fee, and it takes 158 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:07,660 Speaker 1: price -related liquidation risk off the table for the life of your loan. As long as you're 159 00:13:07,660 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: current on payments, Bitcoin can fall as hard as it wants, and your stack doesn't get sold 160 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:15,620 Speaker 1: out from under you. Which matters because the reason to borrow hasn't changed. You might 161 00:13:15,620 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 1: need cash, you don't want to sell, and selling costs you everything those coins do 162 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:23,320 Speaker 1: afterwards. Not to mention, Salt's been doing this since 2016. They're the original Bitcoin 163 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 1: -backed lenders, still here while most of the names you remember from 2022 aren't. I got an 164 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:31,980 Speaker 1: exclusive rate discount on a new loan just for you guys. Visit saltlending .com slash joe, 165 00:13:31,980 --> 00:13:37,340 Speaker 1: that's saltlending .com slash joe, and use code joe50salt to claim it. Never sell it, 166 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 1: borrow against it. And every cycle, the drawdown comes, and most holders just sit there and 167 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:46,340 Speaker 1: take it. But serious money hedges instead. It hedges the downside on what it already holds, 168 00:13:46,460 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 1: and it hedges the upside on what it's still waiting to buy. Well, now you can do both with 169 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:54,660 Speaker 1: Bitcoin perps on call sheet. Open a small short size to the part of your stack you want 170 00:13:54,660 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 1: hedged, and if the cycle turns, gains on that hedge offset part of the drawdown. But if 171 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 1: Bitcoin keeps running, the hedge costs you, and that's the price of protection. If you're 172 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:07,140 Speaker 1: buying soon and worried price runs first, a small long position covers that side until you 173 00:14:07,140 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 1: can buy a spot. Keep leverage low and treat it like insurance. Use my link below and get 174 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:15,620 Speaker 1: $25 once you put your first $50 position on. Special thanks to Simple Mining, Salt, and 175 00:14:15,620 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 1: Colshi for sponsoring today's video, and now back to the show. MSCI publishes the final 176 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:24,140 Speaker 1: list of companies that it's going to exclude from its indexes on November 11th. If you want 177 00:14:24,140 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: to know the second that it drops, hit subscribe, and I'll break it down that day. Now, back 178 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:32,700 Speaker 1: to this morning, because the man at the center of all of this just showed you exactly how 179 00:14:32,700 --> 00:14:38,940 Speaker 1: he sees it. Tomorrow is October 19th, the same date as the 1987 crash, when the Dow lost 22 180 00:14:38,940 --> 00:14:45,660 Speaker 1: .6 % in a single day, its biggest one -day drop ever. Into all of that at 8 .45 a .m. this 181 00:14:45,660 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 1: morning, Michael Saylor posted his chart with one line, we found more room for art. It 182 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:56,780 Speaker 1: shows 118 separate Bitcoin purchases since 2020 through both bull markets, bear markets, 183 00:14:56,900 --> 00:15:03,460 Speaker 1: and we're experiencing now. An average cost of $75 ,444 a coin and a gain of about $5 184 00:15:03,460 --> 00:15:09,060 Speaker 1: .2 billion even after the horrible year that Bitcoin has had. Historically, that Sunday 185 00:15:09,060 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: post has come the day before strategy announces another purchase it isn't filed yet so 186 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:18,740 Speaker 1: treat it as a signal until tomorrow morning but three days after the worst index news that 187 00:15:18,740 --> 00:15:23,300 Speaker 1: strategy has received in years with its stock under billions of dollars before selling on 188 00:15:23,300 --> 00:15:27,740 Speaker 1: the eve of the most famous crash anniversary on the calendar the man running the company is 189 00:15:27,740 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: signaling he's still buying bitcoin which brings us to part three for years 100 000 was the 190 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 1: number most people never thought Bitcoin would even get there. And when it finally did, the 191 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: selling was enormous. The day Bitcoin first broke $100 ,000, long -term holders, the people 192 00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:50,060 Speaker 1: who'd held for months or years, took profits at a record $2 .1 billion a day. Over the 193 00:15:50,060 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 1: cycle, they cashed out more than 3 .4 million Bitcoin, more than in the entire 2021 cycle. 194 00:15:56,340 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 1: One investor from Bitcoin's earliest days sold more than 80 ,000 coins, over $9 billion, in 195 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 1: one of the largest Bitcoin trades in history. And where every earlier cycle had one big 196 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:11,500 Speaker 1: wave of long -term holders selling, this one had three. And that selling is why the last 197 00:16:11,500 --> 00:16:17,740 Speaker 1: cycle was the smallest on record. We only went from $16 ,500 up to $126 ,000. 198 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: Look at this chart. From the low to its high, Bitcoin's 2011 cycle ran about 574 times. In 199 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 1: 2013, about 539 times. 2017, more than 100 times. 2021, about 21 times. In the last cycle, 200 00:16:30,820 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: from about $15 ,500 to $126 ,000, Bitcoin ran just 8 .2 times. Most people 201 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 1: take the wrong lesson from that chart and assume Bitcoin's best runs are a thing of the 202 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:47,900 Speaker 1: past, and it's not going to be an outperformer anytime soon. A lot of that shrinking is due 203 00:16:47,900 --> 00:16:52,460 Speaker 1: to Bitcoin just becoming a bigger asset, and it's more difficult to grow a bigger asset by 204 00:16:52,460 --> 00:16:56,980 Speaker 1: the same percentage just because of the law of large numbers. but a huge share of the last 205 00:16:56,980 --> 00:17:01,780 Speaker 1: cycle went to absorbing every holder who'd been waiting their entire life to sell Bitcoin 206 00:17:01,780 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: at six figures. And that selling is done. The people who wanted out at the psychological 207 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 1: milestone of $100 ,000 got out. Selling at a loss by long -term holders is down about 85 % 208 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:19,680 Speaker 1: from its August peak. Holders in profit are now moving about four coins for every one sold 209 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 1: at a loss. And at the June low, it was one for every 12th. The bear market that followed 210 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:32,440 Speaker 1: fell about 52%, the shallowest in Bitcoin's history, against 78%, 84%, and 87 % 211 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: in the cycles that preceded it. It never closed below the average price that every holder 212 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 1: paid for their coins, which it did in both 2018 and 2022. Now look, I'm not going to tell 213 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 1: you there's no one left to sell. Plenty of people who bought in the last year or two have 214 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 1: an average cost between 88K and 100K, and some of them will sell to get their money back on 215 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:54,400 Speaker 1: the way up. And in fact, it's one of the reasons why Bitcoin is stuck where it is right 216 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:59,220 Speaker 1: now. We are working through those sellers. But the crowd that sold because $100 ,000 was 217 00:17:59,220 --> 00:18:05,060 Speaker 1: the dream has already sold. So the next time Bitcoin gets to 100K, I don't think it chops 218 00:18:05,060 --> 00:18:10,180 Speaker 1: around there. I think it goes straight through it. And the next real milestone after that 219 00:18:10,180 --> 00:18:15,900 Speaker 1: is $250 ,000, a quarter of the way to million. That's about three times from here and about 220 00:18:15,900 --> 00:18:21,780 Speaker 1: $5 trillion of market value. Bigger than all but a handful of companies on earth. And it 221 00:18:21,780 --> 00:18:27,140 Speaker 1: would add roughly $191 ,000 per Bitcoin from this cycle's low. The last cycle added about 222 00:18:27,140 --> 00:18:33,460 Speaker 1: $111 ,000 per coin. The most Bitcoin had ever gained in a single run. So $250K would be 223 00:18:33,460 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: close to double the biggest dollar move in Bitcoin's history. You probably see some 224 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: resistance at $250K. The real wall is $500 ,000. And that's no coincidence, to beat the 225 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:50,200 Speaker 1: last cycle's 8 .2x, Bitcoin has to get to about $482 ,000. That's the level where this 226 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: becomes a bigger cycle than the last one, and it's where I'd expect a real fight between 227 00:18:54,800 --> 00:19:00,340 Speaker 1: buyers and sellers. So could the road there get bumpy at first? Of course. Hedge funds are 228 00:19:00,340 --> 00:19:05,460 Speaker 1: still unwinding, the midterms are November 3rd, and a drift back towards $75k is on the 229 00:19:05,460 --> 00:19:11,180 Speaker 1: table. Near term, expect plenty of choppiness. But zoom out. In strategy's removal from 230 00:19:11,180 --> 00:19:16,640 Speaker 1: MSCI is a speed bump on the road to get what could be the biggest run of this entire 231 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:22,100 Speaker 1: asset's life. So what does this mean for you? The headline is about a stock, and that stock 232 00:19:22,100 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: is going to take hits through November. Your Bitcoin is an entirely separate asset with the 233 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:32,120 Speaker 1: same 21 million coins it had last week and the week before that. And a wall of Wall Street 234 00:19:32,120 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: money now has a door to it. So let me bring this home. Remember the two things I asked you 235 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 1: to hold onto at the start of the video. The first was the closing bell on November 30th. In 236 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: 43 days, a rulebook forces up to $2 .8 billion of strategy stock onto the market. And 237 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:51,900 Speaker 1: history says most of that damage gets done before the bell even rings. The second was that 238 00:19:51,900 --> 00:19:57,020 Speaker 1: number sitting around one. That's MNAV. If it climbs back above one, once the four sellers 239 00:19:57,020 --> 00:20:02,020 Speaker 1: are gone, the biggest corporate buyer of Bitcoin on Earth is back with fresh fuel. The 240 00:20:02,020 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 1: index funds have no choice. Sailor, a day before Black Monday's anniversary is choosing to 241 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 1: buy more Bitcoin, and firms holding tens of trillions of dollars just put a Bitcoin button 242 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 1: in front of tens of millions of investors. And the sellers who spent a decade waiting for 243 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 1: $100K already got their exit. Bitcoin fell about 1 % on the worst headline its biggest 244 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: buyer has had in years. That's what a speed bump on a long and large bull market looks 245 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 1: like. Let me know in the comments when Bitcoin gets back to $100 ,000. Do you guys think it 246 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 1: chops around or does it go straight through if you want the full map for the next few weeks 247 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 1: i laid out the five tests bitcoin has to get through before the midterms in my video from 248 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 1: thursday and it's right here go watch that one next and i'll see you over there and if you 249 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:45,900 Speaker 1: enjoyed today's video hit the subscribe button down below and turn on the notifications so 250 00:20:45,900 --> 00:20:49,980 Speaker 1: you get notified whenever a new video goes live and check out the hard money room it's a 251 00:20:49,980 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: community i built for serious bitcoin investors weekly live discussions with me plus a live 252 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:57,700 Speaker 1: dashboard that shows you exactly where we are in the cycle link for that is at the video 253 00:20:57,700 --> 00:21:01,500 Speaker 1: description and if you want my take in your inbox every single morning, sign up for my free 254 00:21:01,500 --> 00:21:03,660 Speaker 1: newsletter down below. I'll see you in the next one.