Wall Street Drops Saylor As $24 Trillion Opens To Bitcoin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1r_fRDFMz7U
Language: en | ASR: large-v3-turbo @ 0a363e9161cbc7ed1431c9597a8ceaf0c4f78fcf

[00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.660] Speaker 1: The company holding 4 % of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist is getting thrown out of
[00:00:04.660 --> 00:00:09.480] Speaker 1: one of the biggest families of stock indexes on the planet. It's set to trigger billions of
[00:00:09.480 --> 00:00:14.020] Speaker 1: dollars worth of forced selling, and the clock is already ticking. In 43 days, at the
[00:00:14.020 --> 00:00:19.340] Speaker 1: closing bell on November 30th, every fund tracking MSCI's global stock indexes has to sell
[00:00:19.340 --> 00:00:24.620] Speaker 1: Michael Saylor's strategy, up to $2 .8 billion of it. Half of financial media is calling
[00:00:24.620 --> 00:00:29.400] Speaker 1: this the start of another Black Monday, and ironically enough, tomorrow is the anniversary
[00:00:29.400 --> 00:00:34.360] Speaker 1: of Black Monday, the worst day in stock market history. Saylor went on Bloomberg TV and
[00:00:34.360 --> 00:00:38.880] Speaker 1: said that the money involved is too small to matter. I think both camps are reading this
[00:00:38.880 --> 00:00:44.040] Speaker 1: completely wrong. The crash camp is missing that this forces zero Bitcoin onto the market,
[00:00:44.200 --> 00:00:49.400] Speaker 1: but the too small to matter crowd is missing two things. The timing of the sale and the
[00:00:49.400 --> 00:00:54.220] Speaker 1: dangerous precedent it hands every other stock index committee, including the one that runs
[00:00:54.220 --> 00:00:59.820] Speaker 1: the S &P 500. And this matters to you whether you own Bitcoin, whether you own MSTR, or
[00:00:59.820 --> 00:01:04.480] Speaker 1: you've never touched either one. Because the funds being forced to sell are the same index
[00:01:04.480 --> 00:01:10.940] Speaker 1: funds sitting inside most 401ks in America. Strategy stock fell almost 10 % on Friday on
[00:01:10.940 --> 00:01:15.560] Speaker 1: the news, and Bitcoin fell about 1%. And this morning, Saylor signaled that he's buying
[00:01:15.560 --> 00:01:21.220] Speaker 1: more Bitcoin anyway. Bitcoin is sitting at about $81 ,000 right now. So by the end of this
[00:01:21.220 --> 00:01:25.020] Speaker 1: video, you're going to know exactly how big this force selling really is and why Bitcoin
[00:01:25.020 --> 00:01:29.740] Speaker 1: barely flinched, the enormous wave of Wall Street money being built to hit Bitcoin that
[00:01:29.740 --> 00:01:34.980] Speaker 1: makes this force $2. billion sale look like a rounding error and what all of this means for
[00:01:34.980 --> 00:01:38.740] Speaker 1: the price of your Bitcoin. And stick around at the very end because I'm going to show you
[00:01:38.740 --> 00:01:43.460] Speaker 1: why $100 ,000 won't be the wall that it was last cycle, why Bitcoin is slated to blow
[00:01:43.460 --> 00:01:47.880] Speaker 1: straight through it, and the math on why this bull run could be the biggest dollar move
[00:01:47.880 --> 00:01:52.120] Speaker 1: that Bitcoin has ever made. Let's get into it. So there are two things I want you to hold
[00:01:52.120 --> 00:01:56.600] Speaker 1: in your head for the rest of this video. The first is a moment, the closing bell on
[00:01:56.600 --> 00:02:01.100] Speaker 1: November 30th. And the second is a number. It tells you whether the biggest corporate buyer
[00:02:01.100 --> 00:02:05.720] Speaker 1: of Bitcoin on earth keeps buying through all of this. And right now, it's sitting around
[00:02:05.720 --> 00:02:10.880] Speaker 1: one. We're coming back to both of those. So here's how we got here in the first place. On
[00:02:10.880 --> 00:02:15.860] Speaker 1: October 15th, after the market closed, MSCI locked in rules that put strategy on track to
[00:02:15.860 --> 00:02:21.020] Speaker 1: get removed from its stock indexes. On November 11th, 24 days from now, it publishes the
[00:02:21.020 --> 00:02:26.240] Speaker 1: final list, and at the close on November 30th, the cut takes effect, and every fund that
[00:02:26.240 --> 00:02:31.480] Speaker 1: tracks those indexes has to sell. MSCI builds the world and international indexes that
[00:02:31.480 --> 00:02:36.260] Speaker 1: trillions of dollars of index fund money follow. It created a brand new category called non
[00:02:36.260 --> 00:02:40.640] Speaker 1: -operating companies, meaning businesses that mainly hold assets instead of running an
[00:02:40.640 --> 00:02:45.820] Speaker 1: operation, and when it tested companies against that rule, three of them failed. Strategy,
[00:02:46.100 --> 00:02:51.040] Speaker 1: the biggest by far, MetaPlanet, Japan's version of Strategy, and a company called Yellow
[00:02:51.040 --> 00:02:56.680] Speaker 1: Cake that just holds physical uranium. The test never mentions Bitcoin explicitly, but it
[00:02:56.680 --> 00:03:01.360] Speaker 1: catches anyone who holds an asset and basically sits on it. Saylor went straight at the
[00:03:01.360 --> 00:03:07.060] Speaker 1: logic. He said MSCI counts oil, natural gas, land, and machinery as capital. And in his
[00:03:07.060 --> 00:03:12.300] Speaker 1: words, refusing to do the same for Bitcoin is a value judgment, with MSCI acting like an
[00:03:12.300 --> 00:03:17.300] Speaker 1: unregistered financial advisor. And that's why this matters far past just one stock.
[00:03:17.720 --> 00:03:22.380] Speaker 1: Strategy already got passed over for the S &P 500 once last year. If the biggest index
[00:03:22.380 --> 00:03:26.500] Speaker 1: provider in the world now says that Bitcoin on a balance sheet doesn't count as running a
[00:03:26.500 --> 00:03:32.100] Speaker 1: business, every other committee gets cover to say the exact same thing. JP Morgan puts
[00:03:32.100 --> 00:03:37.780] Speaker 1: another $8 .8 billion of selling at risk if they do. So let's take this in three parts. The
[00:03:37.780 --> 00:03:42.060] Speaker 1: selling, the money coming in and what it actually means for the price of Bitcoin. So
[00:03:42.060 --> 00:03:46.100] Speaker 1: starting with part one, the selling, because this is the number scaring people. Funds
[00:03:46.100 --> 00:03:52.000] Speaker 1: tracking MSCI's indexes hold about 3 .1 % of strategy shares, roughly 13 million of them.
[00:03:52.400 --> 00:03:57.460] Speaker 1: Estimates for what they'll have to dump run from about $1 .9 billion up to JP Morgan's $2
[00:03:57.460 --> 00:04:02.980] Speaker 1: .8 billion estimate. That sounds like a crushing amount until you set it next to how much
[00:04:02.980 --> 00:04:07.440] Speaker 1: of this stock actually trades. Take a look at this chart. Just one week of strategy
[00:04:07.440 --> 00:04:13.700] Speaker 1: trading, the week ending October 9th, was $15 .3 billion. An average single day of trading
[00:04:13.700 --> 00:04:20.200] Speaker 1: for strategy stock this year is $2 .9 billion. So the entire forced sale that everyone is
[00:04:20.200 --> 00:04:25.900] Speaker 1: in a panic about fits inside less than one normal trading day for the stock. Now I'm not
[00:04:25.900 --> 00:04:29.640] Speaker 1: going to tell you it's nothing, because the timing is what makes this thing really stink.
[00:04:30.120 --> 00:04:35.500] Speaker 1: Index funds don't spread their selling out. Their job is to match the index exactly. So
[00:04:35.500 --> 00:04:39.920] Speaker 1: they will sell at the closing bell on the day that the change takes effect, which means
[00:04:39.920 --> 00:04:46.280] Speaker 1: most of that $2 .8 billion hits in a single day on November 30th. Every trader on Wall
[00:04:46.280 --> 00:04:51.280] Speaker 1: Street knows the date and roughly the size, so they get there first. They front run it and
[00:04:51.280 --> 00:04:55.480] Speaker 1: they sell ahead of time in planning to buy the stock back from the index funds at the
[00:04:55.480 --> 00:04:59.940] Speaker 1: close. If we go back and look at 30 years worth of data from other stocks getting dropped
[00:04:59.940 --> 00:05:05.220] Speaker 1: from the S &P 500, the Russell, and the NASDAQ, it shows the same thing. Nearly all of the
[00:05:05.220 --> 00:05:09.960] Speaker 1: price damage happens between the announcement and the deadline. Well, you watched it start
[00:05:09.960 --> 00:05:16.720] Speaker 1: on Friday. Strategy closed down 9 .5 % at $136 .72, its ugliest day in months.
[00:05:16.960 --> 00:05:20.800] Speaker 1: Now, look at what Bitcoin did on the exact same day, and it'll tell you everything you need
[00:05:20.800 --> 00:05:25.640] Speaker 1: to know about whether or not this actually matters for Bitcoin. From Thursday's close to
[00:05:25.640 --> 00:05:31.340] Speaker 1: Friday's close, Bitcoin fell about 1%. That's half of what the NASDAQ lost and about a
[00:05:31.340 --> 00:05:36.760] Speaker 1: tenth of strategies dropped. It never broke $80 ,000, and it's held there all weekend. Zoom
[00:05:36.760 --> 00:05:41.880] Speaker 1: out to October 2nd, and it's the same picture. Strategy stock is down about 15%, chip
[00:05:41.880 --> 00:05:48.060] Speaker 1: stocks are down almost 14%, and Bitcoin is down just 4%. For reference, that's better than
[00:05:48.060 --> 00:05:52.980] Speaker 1: the NASDAQ and the S &P 500. The index is that Bitcoin is typically more sensitive than.
[00:05:53.160 --> 00:05:57.880] Speaker 1: For an asset people still call too volatile to own, Bitcoin just held its ground while
[00:05:57.880 --> 00:06:02.840] Speaker 1: basically everything around it that it's supposed to be correlated to is blowing up. I can
[00:06:02.840 --> 00:06:06.200] Speaker 1: already hear the comments, wait a minute, Joe, billions of dollars are for selling and
[00:06:06.200 --> 00:06:11.680] Speaker 1: Bitcoin is supposed to shrug that off. Well, here's why it can. Not just the price data
[00:06:11.680 --> 00:06:16.940] Speaker 1: that I showed you a moment ago, but when index funds sell strategies stock, not one Bitcoin
[00:06:16.940 --> 00:06:21.800] Speaker 1: gets sold. The funds just sell shares to other buyers of shares. Think about it like a
[00:06:21.800 --> 00:06:26.480] Speaker 1: house getting sold. The deed changes hands, but the house doesn't move an inch. You don't
[00:06:26.480 --> 00:06:31.460] Speaker 1: pick it up and move it somewhere else. Strategy is roughly 850 ,000 Bitcoin, worth about
[00:06:31.460 --> 00:06:37.080] Speaker 1: $69 billion to stay right on its balance sheet. But there's one place that this can hurt
[00:06:37.080 --> 00:06:41.060] Speaker 1: Bitcoin, and it's that number that I told you to hold on to at the beginning. Strategy buys
[00:06:41.060 --> 00:06:46.040] Speaker 1: Bitcoin by selling new stock and a dividend -paying share called STRC, and then it turns
[00:06:46.040 --> 00:06:50.960] Speaker 1: that cash into new Bitcoin purchases. Well, that only works well when the stock trades for
[00:06:50.960 --> 00:06:56.000] Speaker 1: more than the Bitcoin behind it. The number for that is called MNAV, or the ratio of the
[00:06:56.000 --> 00:07:00.840] Speaker 1: market value to the net asset value, which is basically the stock's price compared with the
[00:07:00.840 --> 00:07:06.380] Speaker 1: Bitcoin the company actually owns. Above 1, every new share strategy sells brings in more
[00:07:06.380 --> 00:07:11.640] Speaker 1: Bitcoin than it gives away. And at 1, the machine stalls. Well, right now, it's sitting
[00:07:11.640 --> 00:07:16.860] Speaker 1: right around 1, and $2 .8 billion of force selling makes it harder to push back above. So
[00:07:16.860 --> 00:07:22.200] Speaker 1: for a stretch, the single biggest corporate buyer of Bitcoin on Earth could buy less. And
[00:07:22.200 --> 00:07:26.980] Speaker 1: that's a real headwind into November. And yet, the people paid to study this stock aren't
[00:07:26.980 --> 00:07:31.280] Speaker 1: selling. They're actually more bullish on it than basically everything else in the market.
[00:07:31.560 --> 00:07:35.780] Speaker 1: Take a look right here. This board ranks the biggest stocks in the market by how bullish
[00:07:35.780 --> 00:07:40.680] Speaker 1: analysts are on them. Using Wall Street ratings plus market analysts scored on how often
[00:07:40.680 --> 00:07:44.180] Speaker 1: they've been right, with the paid promoters totally thrown out. So this is an objective
[00:07:44.180 --> 00:07:50.100] Speaker 1: analysis. And over the last 30 days, 57 analysts weighed in on MSTR, Strategies Common
[00:07:50.100 --> 00:07:56.320] Speaker 1: Stock, and it came out 92 % bullish. For reference, this ranked first on the board, ahead
[00:07:56.320 --> 00:08:01.060] Speaker 1: of every single one of the Magnificent Seven, the most valuable companies in the world. The
[00:08:01.060 --> 00:08:05.800] Speaker 1: bear case they list is Bitcoin itself collapsing. They are more bullish on strategy stock
[00:08:05.800 --> 00:08:11.280] Speaker 1: than any other stock in the US stock market today. And none of them list the MSCI removal
[00:08:11.280 --> 00:08:16.160] Speaker 1: as a reason to be bearish. And since August 2020, right before its first Bitcoin buy,
[00:08:16.340 --> 00:08:22.680] Speaker 1: strategy is up more than 1000 % through Friday's drop, against 128 % for the S &P 500 and
[00:08:22.680 --> 00:08:28.680] Speaker 1: 137 % for the NASDAQ. So to say this differently, a rule changed, so a computer is being
[00:08:28.680 --> 00:08:34.660] Speaker 1: forced to sell. The people who actually looked are more bullish than ever. So that's part
[00:08:34.660 --> 00:08:39.200] Speaker 1: one, that's the selling. Part two is what's lining up on the other side of it. And it's a
[00:08:39.200 --> 00:08:43.860] Speaker 1: part that almost nobody's putting next to this doom and gloom headline about MSCI's ruling.
[00:08:43.860 --> 00:08:48.540] Speaker 1: On Thursday, the same day that MSCI published his decision, Charles Schwab, one of the
[00:08:48.540 --> 00:08:53.980] Speaker 1: biggest brokerages in America, finished rolling out Bitcoin access to its customers. Schwab
[00:08:53.980 --> 00:09:00.980] Speaker 1: has 40 .3 million active brokerage accounts and $13 .33 trillion in client assets. Trading
[00:09:00.980 --> 00:09:05.980] Speaker 1: opened up in May, and as of this week, customers can now move Bitcoin in and out, not just
[00:09:05.980 --> 00:09:10.920] Speaker 1: the Bitcoin ETFs. Vanguard, the giant of index fund investing and a firm that spent years
[00:09:10.920 --> 00:09:15.620] Speaker 1: refusing to touch Bitcoin, opened its platform to the Spot Bitcoin Funds last December, and
[00:09:15.620 --> 00:09:20.260] Speaker 1: it has more than 50 million brokerage customers and over $11 trillion. In a Bank of
[00:09:20.260 --> 00:09:25.720] Speaker 1: America's Merrill, advisors can now recommend putting 1 % to 4 % of a client's portfolio in
[00:09:25.720 --> 00:09:30.440] Speaker 1: Bitcoin, retirement accounts included, with no minimum net worth. If you just put Schwamm
[00:09:30.440 --> 00:09:36.060] Speaker 1: and Vanguard together, that's roughly $24 trillion in client assets that now sits one click
[00:09:36.060 --> 00:09:41.100] Speaker 1: away from Bitcoin. If Schwa's clients put 1 % of their assets into Bitcoin, the low end of
[00:09:41.100 --> 00:09:47.740] Speaker 1: what Merrill's advisors can now recommend, that's $133 billion. That's roughly 47 times the
[00:09:47.740 --> 00:09:52.760] Speaker 1: entire forced sale of strategy stock, which, to remind you again, is lower than one day of
[00:09:52.760 --> 00:09:57.900] Speaker 1: strategy's volume. Coming from one brokerage at the most conservative allocation on the
[00:09:57.900 --> 00:10:02.500] Speaker 1: table. The biggest banks are building the plumbing, too. Deutsche Bank, the largest bank in
[00:10:02.500 --> 00:10:06.560] Speaker 1: Germany, got the regulatory green light on October 12th, just a few days ago, and it says
[00:10:06.560 --> 00:10:11.180] Speaker 1: Bitcoin custody for its corporate and institutional clients is just weeks away with Asia
[00:10:11.180 --> 00:10:16.700] Speaker 1: coming next. And the money that's already inside isn't leaving. The U .S. spot Bitcoin ETFs
[00:10:16.700 --> 00:10:22.740] Speaker 1: hold about 1 .28 million Bitcoin, more than $105 billion, after roughly $57 billion of net
[00:10:22.740 --> 00:10:27.940] Speaker 1: inflows since they launched. One asset manager surveyed 15 of the largest institutions in
[00:10:27.940 --> 00:10:32.540] Speaker 1: the world, so pensions, endowments and sovereign wealth funds, and not one of them cut its
[00:10:32.540 --> 00:10:38.740] Speaker 1: Bitcoin during the brutal 50 % drop from our all -time high at $126 ,000 to $58 ,000.
[00:10:39.240 --> 00:10:44.060] Speaker 1: Several of them bought even more. At least one sovereign wealth fund sold part of its gold
[00:10:44.060 --> 00:10:48.920] Speaker 1: in currency reserves just to buy more Bitcoin. That's how much the large institutions are
[00:10:48.920 --> 00:10:53.460] Speaker 1: valuing Bitcoin right now. And Washington has a proposed rule on the table that would open
[00:10:53.460 --> 00:10:58.640] Speaker 1: 401k plans, one of the largest pools of savings in the country to Bitcoin. It isn't final
[00:10:58.640 --> 00:11:03.540] Speaker 1: yet, but it's moving. I want to be honest about one thing. The doors are open, and the
[00:11:03.540 --> 00:11:08.120] Speaker 1: money hasn't fully walked through them yet. The ETFs have seen about $760 million of net
[00:11:08.120 --> 00:11:13.120] Speaker 1: outflows since October 7th. But compare the size of what's being built with the size of
[00:11:13.120 --> 00:11:19.640] Speaker 1: what MSCI is forcing out. On one side, $2 .8 billion of a single stock on a single day. On
[00:11:19.640 --> 00:11:24.640] Speaker 1: the other, tens of millions of investors and tens of trillions of dollars that just got a
[00:11:24.640 --> 00:11:28.300] Speaker 1: Bitcoin button. So that's the answer to what Wall Street kicking Saylor out does to
[00:11:28.300 --> 00:11:32.540] Speaker 1: Bitcoin. It hits the stock, it could slow the biggest corporate buyer for a brief period of
[00:11:32.540 --> 00:11:37.660] Speaker 1: time, but ultimately it forces zero Bitcoin to be sold onto the market, while the biggest
[00:11:37.660 --> 00:11:42.540] Speaker 1: firms on Wall Street build the on -ramps for everyone else. But that still leaves part
[00:11:42.540 --> 00:11:46.160] Speaker 1: three, the number that matters most for your Bitcoin. In a minute, I'll show you what
[00:11:46.160 --> 00:11:50.760] Speaker 1: Saylor did this morning and why the next trip to $100 ,000 and beyond should look nothing
[00:11:50.760 --> 00:11:55.100] Speaker 1: like the last one. Real quick, a word from today's video sponsors, these guys make this
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[00:14:15.620 --> 00:14:20.120] Speaker 1: Colshi for sponsoring today's video, and now back to the show. MSCI publishes the final
[00:14:20.120 --> 00:14:24.140] Speaker 1: list of companies that it's going to exclude from its indexes on November 11th. If you want
[00:14:24.140 --> 00:14:28.000] Speaker 1: to know the second that it drops, hit subscribe, and I'll break it down that day. Now, back
[00:14:28.000 --> 00:14:32.700] Speaker 1: to this morning, because the man at the center of all of this just showed you exactly how
[00:14:32.700 --> 00:14:38.940] Speaker 1: he sees it. Tomorrow is October 19th, the same date as the 1987 crash, when the Dow lost 22
[00:14:38.940 --> 00:14:45.660] Speaker 1: .6 % in a single day, its biggest one -day drop ever. Into all of that at 8 .45 a .m. this
[00:14:45.660 --> 00:14:51.720] Speaker 1: morning, Michael Saylor posted his chart with one line, we found more room for art. It
[00:14:51.720 --> 00:14:56.780] Speaker 1: shows 118 separate Bitcoin purchases since 2020 through both bull markets, bear markets,
[00:14:56.900 --> 00:15:03.460] Speaker 1: and we're experiencing now. An average cost of $75 ,444 a coin and a gain of about $5
[00:15:03.460 --> 00:15:09.060] Speaker 1: .2 billion even after the horrible year that Bitcoin has had. Historically, that Sunday
[00:15:09.060 --> 00:15:14.200] Speaker 1: post has come the day before strategy announces another purchase it isn't filed yet so
[00:15:14.200 --> 00:15:18.740] Speaker 1: treat it as a signal until tomorrow morning but three days after the worst index news that
[00:15:18.740 --> 00:15:23.300] Speaker 1: strategy has received in years with its stock under billions of dollars before selling on
[00:15:23.300 --> 00:15:27.740] Speaker 1: the eve of the most famous crash anniversary on the calendar the man running the company is
[00:15:27.740 --> 00:15:33.960] Speaker 1: signaling he's still buying bitcoin which brings us to part three for years 100 000 was the
[00:15:33.960 --> 00:15:38.320] Speaker 1: number most people never thought Bitcoin would even get there. And when it finally did, the
[00:15:38.320 --> 00:15:43.280] Speaker 1: selling was enormous. The day Bitcoin first broke $100 ,000, long -term holders, the people
[00:15:43.280 --> 00:15:50.060] Speaker 1: who'd held for months or years, took profits at a record $2 .1 billion a day. Over the
[00:15:50.060 --> 00:15:56.040] Speaker 1: cycle, they cashed out more than 3 .4 million Bitcoin, more than in the entire 2021 cycle.
[00:15:56.340 --> 00:16:01.160] Speaker 1: One investor from Bitcoin's earliest days sold more than 80 ,000 coins, over $9 billion, in
[00:16:01.160 --> 00:16:06.400] Speaker 1: one of the largest Bitcoin trades in history. And where every earlier cycle had one big
[00:16:06.400 --> 00:16:11.500] Speaker 1: wave of long -term holders selling, this one had three. And that selling is why the last
[00:16:11.500 --> 00:16:17.740] Speaker 1: cycle was the smallest on record. We only went from $16 ,500 up to $126 ,000.
[00:16:18.120 --> 00:16:24.160] Speaker 1: Look at this chart. From the low to its high, Bitcoin's 2011 cycle ran about 574 times. In
[00:16:24.160 --> 00:16:30.680] Speaker 1: 2013, about 539 times. 2017, more than 100 times. 2021, about 21 times. In the last cycle,
[00:16:30.820 --> 00:16:37.720] Speaker 1: from about $15 ,500 to $126 ,000, Bitcoin ran just 8 .2 times. Most people
[00:16:37.720 --> 00:16:42.760] Speaker 1: take the wrong lesson from that chart and assume Bitcoin's best runs are a thing of the
[00:16:42.760 --> 00:16:47.900] Speaker 1: past, and it's not going to be an outperformer anytime soon. A lot of that shrinking is due
[00:16:47.900 --> 00:16:52.460] Speaker 1: to Bitcoin just becoming a bigger asset, and it's more difficult to grow a bigger asset by
[00:16:52.460 --> 00:16:56.980] Speaker 1: the same percentage just because of the law of large numbers. but a huge share of the last
[00:16:56.980 --> 00:17:01.780] Speaker 1: cycle went to absorbing every holder who'd been waiting their entire life to sell Bitcoin
[00:17:01.780 --> 00:17:07.320] Speaker 1: at six figures. And that selling is done. The people who wanted out at the psychological
[00:17:07.320 --> 00:17:13.720] Speaker 1: milestone of $100 ,000 got out. Selling at a loss by long -term holders is down about 85 %
[00:17:13.720 --> 00:17:19.680] Speaker 1: from its August peak. Holders in profit are now moving about four coins for every one sold
[00:17:19.680 --> 00:17:25.520] Speaker 1: at a loss. And at the June low, it was one for every 12th. The bear market that followed
[00:17:25.520 --> 00:17:32.440] Speaker 1: fell about 52%, the shallowest in Bitcoin's history, against 78%, 84%, and 87 %
[00:17:32.440 --> 00:17:36.840] Speaker 1: in the cycles that preceded it. It never closed below the average price that every holder
[00:17:36.840 --> 00:17:42.000] Speaker 1: paid for their coins, which it did in both 2018 and 2022. Now look, I'm not going to tell
[00:17:42.000 --> 00:17:46.240] Speaker 1: you there's no one left to sell. Plenty of people who bought in the last year or two have
[00:17:46.240 --> 00:17:51.280] Speaker 1: an average cost between 88K and 100K, and some of them will sell to get their money back on
[00:17:51.280 --> 00:17:54.400] Speaker 1: the way up. And in fact, it's one of the reasons why Bitcoin is stuck where it is right
[00:17:54.400 --> 00:17:59.220] Speaker 1: now. We are working through those sellers. But the crowd that sold because $100 ,000 was
[00:17:59.220 --> 00:18:05.060] Speaker 1: the dream has already sold. So the next time Bitcoin gets to 100K, I don't think it chops
[00:18:05.060 --> 00:18:10.180] Speaker 1: around there. I think it goes straight through it. And the next real milestone after that
[00:18:10.180 --> 00:18:15.900] Speaker 1: is $250 ,000, a quarter of the way to million. That's about three times from here and about
[00:18:15.900 --> 00:18:21.780] Speaker 1: $5 trillion of market value. Bigger than all but a handful of companies on earth. And it
[00:18:21.780 --> 00:18:27.140] Speaker 1: would add roughly $191 ,000 per Bitcoin from this cycle's low. The last cycle added about
[00:18:27.140 --> 00:18:33.460] Speaker 1: $111 ,000 per coin. The most Bitcoin had ever gained in a single run. So $250K would be
[00:18:33.460 --> 00:18:37.760] Speaker 1: close to double the biggest dollar move in Bitcoin's history. You probably see some
[00:18:37.760 --> 00:18:43.760] Speaker 1: resistance at $250K. The real wall is $500 ,000. And that's no coincidence, to beat the
[00:18:43.760 --> 00:18:50.200] Speaker 1: last cycle's 8 .2x, Bitcoin has to get to about $482 ,000. That's the level where this
[00:18:50.200 --> 00:18:54.800] Speaker 1: becomes a bigger cycle than the last one, and it's where I'd expect a real fight between
[00:18:54.800 --> 00:19:00.340] Speaker 1: buyers and sellers. So could the road there get bumpy at first? Of course. Hedge funds are
[00:19:00.340 --> 00:19:05.460] Speaker 1: still unwinding, the midterms are November 3rd, and a drift back towards $75k is on the
[00:19:05.460 --> 00:19:11.180] Speaker 1: table. Near term, expect plenty of choppiness. But zoom out. In strategy's removal from
[00:19:11.180 --> 00:19:16.640] Speaker 1: MSCI is a speed bump on the road to get what could be the biggest run of this entire
[00:19:16.640 --> 00:19:22.100] Speaker 1: asset's life. So what does this mean for you? The headline is about a stock, and that stock
[00:19:22.100 --> 00:19:26.800] Speaker 1: is going to take hits through November. Your Bitcoin is an entirely separate asset with the
[00:19:26.800 --> 00:19:32.120] Speaker 1: same 21 million coins it had last week and the week before that. And a wall of Wall Street
[00:19:32.120 --> 00:19:36.760] Speaker 1: money now has a door to it. So let me bring this home. Remember the two things I asked you
[00:19:36.760 --> 00:19:41.040] Speaker 1: to hold onto at the start of the video. The first was the closing bell on November 30th. In
[00:19:41.040 --> 00:19:46.280] Speaker 1: 43 days, a rulebook forces up to $2 .8 billion of strategy stock onto the market. And
[00:19:46.280 --> 00:19:51.900] Speaker 1: history says most of that damage gets done before the bell even rings. The second was that
[00:19:51.900 --> 00:19:57.020] Speaker 1: number sitting around one. That's MNAV. If it climbs back above one, once the four sellers
[00:19:57.020 --> 00:20:02.020] Speaker 1: are gone, the biggest corporate buyer of Bitcoin on Earth is back with fresh fuel. The
[00:20:02.020 --> 00:20:06.680] Speaker 1: index funds have no choice. Sailor, a day before Black Monday's anniversary is choosing to
[00:20:06.680 --> 00:20:11.720] Speaker 1: buy more Bitcoin, and firms holding tens of trillions of dollars just put a Bitcoin button
[00:20:11.720 --> 00:20:16.040] Speaker 1: in front of tens of millions of investors. And the sellers who spent a decade waiting for
[00:20:16.040 --> 00:20:21.040] Speaker 1: $100K already got their exit. Bitcoin fell about 1 % on the worst headline its biggest
[00:20:21.040 --> 00:20:26.960] Speaker 1: buyer has had in years. That's what a speed bump on a long and large bull market looks
[00:20:26.960 --> 00:20:31.160] Speaker 1: like. Let me know in the comments when Bitcoin gets back to $100 ,000. Do you guys think it
[00:20:31.160 --> 00:20:34.960] Speaker 1: chops around or does it go straight through if you want the full map for the next few weeks
[00:20:34.960 --> 00:20:38.600] Speaker 1: i laid out the five tests bitcoin has to get through before the midterms in my video from
[00:20:38.600 --> 00:20:42.520] Speaker 1: thursday and it's right here go watch that one next and i'll see you over there and if you
[00:20:42.520 --> 00:20:45.900] Speaker 1: enjoyed today's video hit the subscribe button down below and turn on the notifications so
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[00:20:54.040 --> 00:20:57.700] Speaker 1: dashboard that shows you exactly where we are in the cycle link for that is at the video
[00:20:57.700 --> 00:21:01.500] Speaker 1: description and if you want my take in your inbox every single morning, sign up for my free
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