1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:04,220 Speaker 1: Hey y 'all, Peter Zein here coming to you from a foggy Colorado. A lot of you have written 2 00:00:04,220 --> 00:00:09,780 Speaker 1: in asking what the hell is going on in France. We've got protests again, not just labor, 3 00:00:09,900 --> 00:00:16,740 Speaker 1: this time also students. Why? Why, why, why, why, why? Okay, three things. First of all, 4 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:21,580 Speaker 1: France is going through a delayed moment that most of the rest of Europe and the bulk of 5 00:00:21,580 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 1: the advanced world already has. Birth rates started dropping in the rich world back in the 6 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:32,060 Speaker 1: vicinity of World War II with globalization's onset. People finally had access to 7 00:00:32,060 --> 00:00:36,580 Speaker 1: international markets, and so everyone could specialize. And they started taking services 8 00:00:36,580 --> 00:00:39,980 Speaker 1: and industrial jobs, and those were all in the cities. And when you live on the farm, kids 9 00:00:39,980 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 1: are free labor. You have a bunch. When you move into the city, kids are just an expense. 10 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:50,180 Speaker 1: You have fewer. And so we saw periods in the 80s, 90s, 2000s, and 2010s when various 11 00:00:50,180 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: countries across the spectrum finally reached the point of demographic inversion, where the 12 00:00:55,920 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: birth rate had been so low for so long, they were now starting to age out. And that 13 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: generates a whole host of problems. But for purposes of this conversation, it's financial. 14 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: Because when you've got a big generation, the last big generation to be born, that is in 15 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:13,580 Speaker 1: their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, then you're awash with money. And you can spend that on 16 00:01:13,580 --> 00:01:17,860 Speaker 1: infrastructure or education or social services or whatever. But when they hit their 60s, 17 00:01:17,980 --> 00:01:22,060 Speaker 1: all of a sudden that money goes away. They're no longer paying taxes. And they start taking 18 00:01:22,060 --> 00:01:26,660 Speaker 1: from the system in terms of pensions and health care. And so everyone has made this 19 00:01:26,660 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: transition ahead of France, because France was a more rural country, the land is just 20 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:39,380 Speaker 1: better, and so its transition from rural to urban happened slower. And they didn't finally 21 00:01:39,380 --> 00:01:45,140 Speaker 1: have a birth rate crunch until just this decade. And so they're at the very early stages of 22 00:01:45,140 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: that transition, and they have a very robust social security state, just like most of 23 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:54,180 Speaker 1: Europe. But this is the first time that they have actually had to deal with the fact that 24 00:01:54,180 --> 00:01:59,620 Speaker 1: the money is no longer there. And that means they have to cut programs. And wherever they 25 00:01:59,620 --> 00:02:04,060 Speaker 1: cut is going to cause a problem. Some of the biggest cuts have been in health, public 26 00:02:04,060 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 1: safety, and education. And so it's the students that are rebelling now because they see the 27 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: quality of the education and the facilities that they have just being less than their 28 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: forefathers and they're right. Other countries have found ways to make do over time, but 29 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: it's never easy and certainly isn't in France either. So that's one. Number two, France is 30 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: a little bit different. France was the first country to really centralize and for most of 31 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 1: its modern history, Paris has been large and in charge and has decided what's happened 32 00:02:32,920 --> 00:02:39,340 Speaker 1: everywhere. And that means you have a lot more smoothness when it comes to policy. So it 33 00:02:39,340 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: was really easy to put these social programs into place in the first place. When you're 34 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,540 Speaker 1: dealing with countries that are more federal, whether it's Germany or the United States, 35 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 1: there's more debate, there's more conversations, and the richer regions tend to not want to 36 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:58,500 Speaker 1: subsidize the poorer regions as much. And so the subsequent social welfare state isn't as 37 00:02:58,500 --> 00:03:02,220 Speaker 1: big, and it's easier to pare down. That doesn't happen in France, because France, 38 00:03:02,300 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: everything is centrally designed. And so if you want to protest, you just go to Paris, 39 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 1: because that's where all the power is. And so all the protests always tend to be louder. 40 00:03:11,460 --> 00:03:17,020 Speaker 1: And then the third piece is the French imperial legacy was very different from, say, the 41 00:03:17,020 --> 00:03:23,780 Speaker 1: Dutch or the British. Most European empires installed their own people in their colonies 42 00:03:23,780 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: as a layer over existing political elites and economic elites. And they certainly 43 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:35,540 Speaker 1: took their cut, but it was a more corporatist empire where the colonials actually ran their 44 00:03:35,540 --> 00:03:39,820 Speaker 1: own businesses, harnessing, of course, whatever happened to be in the colony. I don't mean 45 00:03:39,820 --> 00:03:44,300 Speaker 1: to suggest that they were, like, nice about it. but it generated an economic activity that 46 00:03:44,300 --> 00:03:50,420 Speaker 1: was left behind when they left and while they were there the colonials were involved in the 47 00:03:50,420 --> 00:03:54,700 Speaker 1: economic activity it's not really how it went down with countries like say france or 48 00:03:54,700 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: belgium or japan there to be perfectly blunt they they raped the locals sometimes literally 49 00:03:59,920 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: and destroyed the local political elites and economic elites and just took over directly 50 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: and it was more of an extractive empire so when they left there wasn't a lot of 51 00:04:11,260 --> 00:04:15,100 Speaker 1: friendly memories left. And so if you look at countries like India, which, you know, 52 00:04:15,220 --> 00:04:18,820 Speaker 1: screams about colonialism, they still have reasonably good relations with the rest of the 53 00:04:18,820 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 1: Commonwealth. And the Commonwealth exists. And London is at least tucked to. In the former 54 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,980 Speaker 1: French colonies, there's not a lot of that. There's cooperation with the security elites. 55 00:04:29,260 --> 00:04:34,700 Speaker 1: And that's about it. Well, what that meant was that the French were basically sticking a 56 00:04:34,700 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: straw in all their colonies and pulling the resources home. And they spent those resources 57 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:41,580 Speaker 1: on a lot of things, including, say, the social welfare state. And when those colonies went 58 00:04:41,580 --> 00:04:45,820 Speaker 1: away, the cost of the state got borne by the locals, so they now have some of the highest 59 00:04:45,820 --> 00:04:50,780 Speaker 1: tax rates in the world. And there's just a lack of a certain amount of economic realism. 60 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:56,340 Speaker 1: There's this concept in France called public money, where the idea is that the government 61 00:04:56,340 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 1: has the money, and it's a bottomless source, so of course we can demand the government to 62 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:05,860 Speaker 1: do whatever we want. In most countries, that's called taxpayer money, and there's a concept 63 00:05:05,860 --> 00:05:10,300 Speaker 1: that we're actually paying for all of this, so we should probably have a conversation about 64 00:05:10,300 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: how much of it we really want to pay for. 65 00:05:14,140 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 1: I think the best historical example, going back to the 1968 protests in France, which were 66 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:25,840 Speaker 1: some of the biggest, was the slogan was, be realistic, demand 67 00:05:25,840 --> 00:05:32,300 Speaker 1: everything. That's definitely what we're seeing now. It's not that the students are wrong 68 00:05:32,300 --> 00:05:37,840 Speaker 1: about what they're saying. It's just that they're part of a system now that is almost 69 00:05:37,840 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: custom designed to not cut spending. And now they're in a situation where they 70 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:50,300 Speaker 1: have to, and they just don't have a historical experience of doing that. And so here we 71 00:05:50,300 --> 00:05:54,720 Speaker 1: are. Now you just watched a video on protest in France, which wasn't supposed to air on our 72 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:59,580 Speaker 1: free list until Friday, the 23rd of October. If you want to see videos like this that 73 00:05:59,580 --> 00:06:03,720 Speaker 1: happen before the events, you need to sign up for our Patreon system. And we've got a great 74 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:08,500 Speaker 1: deal going on right now. If you pre -order the new book, Acceptable Range, we're going to 75 00:06:08,500 --> 00:06:12,900 Speaker 1: give you an analyst subscription for one month for free, which will give you all the videos 76 00:06:12,900 --> 00:06:17,180 Speaker 1: ahead of time along with everything else that we offer. Information attached here.