1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:05,140 Speaker 1: The SP is going to drop 30%. NVIDIA is going to get cut in the next two, three years. This 2 00:00:05,140 --> 00:00:10,260 Speaker 1: is the greatest cash out from billionaires in Silicon Valley we've ever seen. Run, don't 3 00:00:10,260 --> 00:00:11,100 Speaker 1: walk the other way. 4 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:21,260 Speaker 2: Joining us today, Larry McDonald, founder of Bear Traps Report. Hi, Larry. Great to 5 00:00:21,260 --> 00:00:21,440 Speaker 1: have you 6 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 2: with us. 7 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:23,420 Speaker 1: Thanks for having me. What a pleasure. 8 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:28,620 Speaker 2: Yeah, same here. So it's going to be a great convo. The work you do is all about avoiding 9 00:00:28,620 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 2: drawdowns, and it feels like we really need to be thinking about that right now. where are 10 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 2: the greatest risks investors need to be positioned for right now? What's top of your radar? 11 00:00:37,940 --> 00:00:43,580 Speaker 1: Well, you know, the year end setup is fascinating because the relationship between the 12 00:00:43,580 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 1: index, so the S &P and what I call the dark side of passive investing, 13 00:00:49,480 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: it's getting pretty crazy. Probably 60 Hall of Fame brands that are down 35 to 80 14 00:00:56,280 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: percent and the index is at all season in years where 15 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 1: the S &P's up 10, 15, 20 % and great brands are down. You want to get along the 16 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: wonderful brands and maybe think about even shorting the index or by puts on the index. But 17 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:20,620 Speaker 1: that's what we're seeing the most sophisticated institutional investors behind me in our 18 00:01:20,620 --> 00:01:23,620 Speaker 1: Bloomberg chat. That's a trade that I'm seeing people put on. 19 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 2: We asked the experts closest to the real economy to make sense of it. The people who build, 20 00:01:29,340 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 2: mine, and power real assets and put their own capital behind them. Then we connect the dots 21 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:40,860 Speaker 2: and tell you what it means for your money. Wealthion. It's interesting. It sounds like 22 00:01:40,860 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 2: rotation within equities, look for the sort 23 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:52,380 Speaker 2: of beaten down, kind of sounds like a value trade. But I hear a lot of people really 24 00:01:52,380 --> 00:01:58,580 Speaker 2: concern, listen, yeah, the S &P 500 is broken. What we look at, it doesn't represent what's 25 00:01:58,580 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 2: really going on in the economy. But equities are not the answer because everything's 26 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:08,620 Speaker 2: delivered to AI, including the economy. And it's risky. It sounds like you're not bearish 27 00:02:08,620 --> 00:02:14,380 Speaker 2: equities. You're just worried about the concentration. How do you see this? 28 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 1: Well, yeah, it's because of AI. Think about this. essentially the S &P is 50 % tech. I 29 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:27,540 Speaker 1: mean, come on, you know? And so whenever I've seen that, whenever you see, like, remember 30 00:02:27,540 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: you're, I'm a former Lehman trader and our book is right now, 1 million copies sold, 31 00:02:34,640 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 1: colossal failure of common sense and when markets speak. And I tell my wife once a month, 32 00:02:39,540 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: Maggie, if we sell a million books, we'll break even on our a Lehman stock, right? 33 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:52,420 Speaker 1: But the point I try to make is that in 2000, 2007, whenever you have one sector that is 34 00:02:52,420 --> 00:02:57,100 Speaker 1: that big a part of the market, run. Don't walk the other way. 35 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 1: And then you're going to take three IPOs. Think of the idiocy of this, right? And this is 36 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:09,220 Speaker 1: how passive investing gets gamed, right? So these three IPOs, SpaceX, Anthropic, and 37 00:03:09,220 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 1: OpenAI, three years ago were worth $360 billion. Now they're at $5 38 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 1: .1 trillion from $360 billion. And we're going to put them in the index. We're going to put 39 00:03:21,640 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: it into the NASDAQ 100. We're going to eventually get them in the S &P. This is the 40 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:30,900 Speaker 1: greatest cash out from billionaires in Silicon Valley we've ever seen. And they're dumping 41 00:03:30,900 --> 00:03:37,500 Speaker 1: the shares into the laps of Mr. and Mrs. Joe Lundqvill, average investor in their 401ks. 42 00:03:37,500 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: it's disgusting and it should be stopped 43 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:42,860 Speaker 2: so retails the exit liquidity for private correct 44 00:03:42,860 --> 00:03:43,740 Speaker 1: 100 private 45 00:03:43,740 --> 00:03:44,020 Speaker 2: money 46 00:03:44,020 --> 00:03:49,140 Speaker 1: and and it's just not exit liquidity it's evaluation look at just look at the relationship 47 00:03:49,140 --> 00:03:55,820 Speaker 1: between anthropic and google right google came public at like 35 40 billion dollars you 48 00:03:55,820 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: know anthropic's going to come public and you know whatever it is two trillion i mean it's 49 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: just it's just crazy uh the relationships out there and uh and it's really um it's really 50 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 1: quite pathetic. And nobody's really, everyone's just along for the ride. The indexes are 51 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:12,500 Speaker 1: all time high and no one really cares. 52 00:04:12,940 --> 00:04:19,420 Speaker 2: So is this a stock pickers market where these other names in the S &P 53 00:04:19,420 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 2: look attractive? Or is the AI trade, the bubble bursting going to be so 54 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:31,380 Speaker 2: damaging that it takes everything down with it, including the economy? And so even those 55 00:04:31,380 --> 00:04:33,620 Speaker 2: names get taken down. 56 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:38,020 Speaker 1: Right. That's the tough thing. Nobody knows the answer to that question. I will say we've 57 00:04:38,020 --> 00:04:44,740 Speaker 1: already had a 1987 crash in stock market. It's already happened. Anytime you have equities 58 00:04:44,740 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 1: that are down 35, and we're talking like Harley Davidson, Lenar. I mean, Buffett was buying 59 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:56,660 Speaker 1: Lenar like 20 % above where it is now. Netflix, Bill Ackman was buying Netflix 10, 15 % 60 00:04:56,660 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 1: above where it is now. I mean, these things are down 45%. So we've already crashed. No, 61 00:05:01,060 --> 00:05:03,580 Speaker 1: they can go down more. But think about this, Maggie. 62 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,600 Speaker 1: Oil and rates, the last 60, 90, 100 days. 63 00:05:10,100 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: The move in the last like six months or so, the 12 -month treasury is up 100 basis points. 64 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:24,180 Speaker 1: And oil, gas, diesel, what we call distillates, they're all up 60, 70, 120%. 65 00:05:24,660 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: So we've already had a $300 billion punch to the face of the US consumer. That's why 66 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: McDonald's and Home Depot are down at 30%, 35%. And so we've already done a lot of hiking. 67 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:43,220 Speaker 1: The ability of the Fed to hike further, I think that the economy, I'm starting to see the 68 00:05:43,220 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 1: most sophisticated investors. We work with hedge funds, mutual funds, and pension funds at 69 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:51,420 Speaker 1: the bear trap support. People are starting to look at, institutions are starting to look at 70 00:05:51,420 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 1: duration again. okay in other words long -term bonds because when you have that type it's 71 00:05:56,720 --> 00:06:03,300 Speaker 1: the economy um it's going to essentially accelerate economic risk and then it's like in the 72 00:06:03,300 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 1: 80s and 90s maggie we have these supernova economies where the economy's piping hot rates 73 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:14,840 Speaker 1: are up oils up the consumer gets slammed and all of a sudden we go into a supernova like 74 00:06:14,840 --> 00:06:18,020 Speaker 1: like a like a star burning out that's what's about to happen 75 00:06:18,020 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 2: so you see uh square square that with me that the crash has already happened but there's 76 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:30,860 Speaker 2: if you think that if it's the sophisticated investors think that a rescue it sounds like 77 00:06:30,860 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 2: you're coming lower rates are coming because something's going to break talk to me about 78 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:40,660 Speaker 2: that middle part like how much worse does it get what does that break look like in order to 79 00:06:40,660 --> 00:06:46,480 Speaker 2: be the catalyst for that sort of that that fall in long yields that's what you're saying 80 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 2: right They're buying long duration because they think that the policymakers, the Fed's 81 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 2: going to flip because they're going to need to. 82 00:06:53,140 --> 00:06:58,100 Speaker 1: That's part of it. But it's more about the relationship between, like in our lifetimes, 83 00:06:58,380 --> 00:07:04,940 Speaker 1: only maybe in the late 70s have we seen a bond market that is at this level of 84 00:07:04,940 --> 00:07:05,540 Speaker 1: crashing. 85 00:07:06,280 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 2: And 86 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:11,020 Speaker 1: the reason it's, rates were higher in the 80s right but what people don't understand is 87 00:07:11,020 --> 00:07:17,900 Speaker 1: interest rates between 2017 and 2021 30 trillion 88 00:07:17,900 --> 00:07:22,460 Speaker 1: of bonds were issued near one to zero to maybe two percent 89 00:07:22,460 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 2: there's 90 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: an apple bond behind me maggie that's trading at 47 cents on the dollar it's double a 91 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:36,700 Speaker 1: rated maggie it was issued at par 100 it's turning to 47 cents because it's a 2 92 00:07:36,700 --> 00:07:43,220 Speaker 1: .55 % coupon and rates have gone up. So that bond's worth a lot less. So the point is, if 93 00:07:43,220 --> 00:07:47,900 Speaker 1: you buy something like that, what would you rather own? Apple equity at 10 times sales, 94 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:53,700 Speaker 1: right? $5 trillion market cap. It's like brain debt to buy that thing here. Whereas you can 95 00:07:53,700 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: buy the bond that's trading at 47 cents. It's paying 2 .55%, but your actual yield's 96 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 1: much better than that. But guess what? If the 30 -year treasury for some reason and a 97 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:12,220 Speaker 1: recession goes back to 4%, that Apple bond's going to be worth about 72, 73. And the bottom 98 00:08:12,220 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 1: line for people watching us right now, that's 18 % a year if that happens in the next three 99 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 1: years. So it's like the 80s here, Maggie. Bonds are starting to offer equity like returns 100 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: because they've crashed like it's 1929. 101 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 2: So this is the smart trade, the smart money for you is everyone opportunistically looking 102 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 2: for trades that will work if interest rates go down. 103 00:08:39,180 --> 00:08:44,180 Speaker 1: Right. And another one, I mean, let me just look at, think about Nike, Maggie, right? Think 104 00:08:44,180 --> 00:08:50,780 Speaker 1: about nike uh you have you have um the olympics in 2028 right this is nike now 105 00:08:50,780 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: uh almost 75 80 off you've got free cash flow at nike near 3 106 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 1: billion over the next year 51 billion market cap and guess what in the last week 360 107 00:09:03,560 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 1: million shares traded and the float is 1 .1 billion okay 1 .1 billion 108 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:16,580 Speaker 1: shares. So 360. So in other words, the capitulation score that we're getting in Nike is 109 00:09:16,580 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 1: Category 5. It's like Exxon Mobil in November of 21. Think about that capitulation. 110 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 1: It's like Intel a year and a half ago. We're talking like Category 5 storm as in a 111 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 1: hurricane. 112 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 2: This 113 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: is what just happened to Nike. When you can buy a world -class brand that's trading 30 % 114 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:43,380 Speaker 1: below its 200 month moving average. You do that every day of the week and twice on Sunday. 115 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 2: It's funny, Larry, because you're the author of the Bear Traps Report, but this is like a 116 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 2: really bullish conversation about parts of the market that you think are 117 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,180 Speaker 2: grossly mispriced. 118 00:09:56,300 --> 00:10:02,580 Speaker 1: Yeah. Make no mistake. I think the S &P, once we get through this dumping of the IPOs, the 119 00:10:02,580 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 1: S &P is going to drop 30 % over the next year. It's probably going to be flat for eight 120 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 1: years. Let's see what happened in 2000 to 2010. The S &P didn't go down. I mean, it didn't 121 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:18,020 Speaker 1: move. It was flat. There's been two periods in the last 50 years where the S &P was flat 122 00:10:18,020 --> 00:10:23,740 Speaker 1: for seven years. This is what we're coming into. But within the market, there are gems on 123 00:10:23,740 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 1: the floor that have to be picked up. 124 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 2: I love that visual. So let's talk a little bit about what we'll dig in again about sort of 125 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 2: portfolio construction and framework in a minute. it. But let's talk a little bit about 126 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 2: bond yields, because it seems all of this is centered on yields going lower, right? That's 127 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 2: the premise, that yields have to flip at some point. So government bond yields around the 128 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 2: world rising. Demand for U .S. Treasuries at the long end has been dismal. I mean, we've 129 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:58,060 Speaker 2: seen terrible auctions, some OK, but some really bad, especially when you're talking about 130 00:10:58,060 --> 00:11:02,660 Speaker 2: 30 -year. Are we watching a sovereign bond crisis gather steam? 131 00:11:02,900 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: There's no question. Watch the European banks socked chin down, I think, 20 % in the 132 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:16,660 Speaker 1: last three, four weeks. They're exposed to French paper. And so you've got a really nasty 133 00:11:16,660 --> 00:11:23,060 Speaker 1: situation with the global bond market. That's probably going to trigger that kind of crisis 134 00:11:23,060 --> 00:11:27,300 Speaker 1: in the index, the S &P, in the next couple of months. I think yields could go a little 135 00:11:27,300 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: higher. But what I mean is in terms of, I'm sorry, the U .S. 30 -year, U .S. 10 -year. You 136 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 1: can go higher, but this is where you want to start adding in. If they do go higher, it'll 137 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:45,300 Speaker 1: be a blow -off, nasty, and then a reversal. Because from here, any more that rates 138 00:11:45,300 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 1: go up, bond prices come down, and you start to create, Maggie, massive, massive stress 139 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:56,060 Speaker 1: within the banking system. Because think of Bank of America. I mean, we're seeing guys, 140 00:11:56,400 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: we're seeing a lot of players behind me shorting Bank America because, you know, they're 141 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 1: sitting on all that commercial real estate that they sold these commercial real estate 142 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 1: loans to 2 % to 3%, right? They're going to refinance it like 7%, 8%, 10%. I mean, they're 143 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 1: sitting on hundreds of billions, not to mention, you know, they have like $300 billion of 144 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: deposits that are at zero, Maggie, zero, right? zero interest rates because there's some 145 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 1: you know retired couples out there that still have their money in these savings accounts of 146 00:12:28,560 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 1: zero guess what's going to happen maggie these muse systems that you're seeing from meta 147 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:37,940 Speaker 1: they're going to go around people are going to say oh what can i do about my banking uh 148 00:12:37,940 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 1: deposit and muse is going to go out there and say hey hey hello is anybody home why are you 149 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:49,320 Speaker 1: in the zero interest rate bank account when you can get four percent over here And you know 150 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 1: what's going to happen? 151 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:56,460 Speaker 1: $150 billion is going to leave Bank of America over the next year, maybe five years. And 152 00:12:56,460 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 1: that's a huge, juicy part of their profits. They're ripping off investors right now because 153 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 1: they're sitting on that money. They're taking in the $200 billion, $300 billion. I think 154 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: it's $600 billion total. And they're giving the clients maybe 1%, and they're putting it in 155 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 1: treasuries and getting 4 % to 5%. 156 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 2: Who? I've been hearing more and more. And of course, news just rolled out. So this is just 157 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 2: the beginning of us sort of understanding what a sort of AI assisted, you know, search will 158 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 2: look like and what that means. Who benefits from that or what companies benefit from that? 159 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 1: Well, first of all, let's talk about just for a second. Let's talk about Mr. Zuckerberg. 160 00:13:39,100 --> 00:13:45,860 Speaker 1: The guy incinerated $300 billion on the metaverse. He changed the name of the 161 00:13:45,860 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 1: company to Meta from Facebook. It's hilarious. He incinerated $300 billion. Now, he's 162 00:13:52,560 --> 00:13:57,020 Speaker 1: created a product. Think about it. They had a world -class business that's essentially a 163 00:13:57,020 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 1: monopoly, right? Instagram, Facebook, nobody can compete with them. Anybody that's come 164 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:08,320 Speaker 1: along, it's been, you've got a monopoly power. They had 30, they had like 30, $40 billion 165 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:13,220 Speaker 1: free cash flow two years ago. 40 billion, maybe two to three. Now they're going to go 166 00:14:13,220 --> 00:14:18,180 Speaker 1: negative free cash flow, minus 20 billion. Okay, so you're talking about they're 167 00:14:18,180 --> 00:14:22,780 Speaker 1: incinerating cash. They're creating a product called Muse. And guess what? Google announced 168 00:14:22,780 --> 00:14:27,420 Speaker 1: one today. Apple's going to have one. There's going to be 40 of these things. And it's a 169 00:14:27,420 --> 00:14:33,780 Speaker 1: free product, Maggie. So imagine burning the cash. You have an oligopoly, monopoly business 170 00:14:33,780 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: of cash flow. You take that cash, you're burning it, spending it on AI for this product 171 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:45,460 Speaker 1: that you're giving away, which has no barriers to entry. It's just, you know, so that's - 172 00:14:45,460 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 2: So clearly Meta, not the beneficiary of this. 173 00:14:48,300 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 1: Yeah. So me, let's get to the question. Intuitive Surgical, Baxter. there are these 174 00:14:54,160 --> 00:15:01,100 Speaker 1: companies that have the data slumber j slb they have the data maggie slumber j i 175 00:15:01,100 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 1: think the stock could potentially double triple next five ten years uh same thing with 176 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 1: intuitive surgical when you have the data think about robotics and surgeries all of these 177 00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 1: doctors around the world it's going to be a certain the percentage of robotic type 178 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:18,420 Speaker 1: surgeries globally are going to probably go up like five six hundred percent but if you 179 00:15:18,420 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: have the data that's where you can really absolutely capitalize on artificial 180 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:31,980 Speaker 1: intelligence. And so Baxter, Intuitive Surgical, and Schlumberger are three big picks for 181 00:15:31,980 --> 00:15:34,140 Speaker 1: really companies that will harness the power of AI. 182 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:38,900 Speaker 2: So the data is the moat now for 183 00:15:38,900 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: these 184 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 2: companies. What about in financials, though? This is very disruptive, what you were talking 185 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:49,260 Speaker 2: about, this idea that I understand And if you're commoditizing, giving away AI tools and 186 00:15:49,260 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 2: products, and people are reluctant to pay for them, not the winner of the AI revolution. 187 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 2: You own the data, own the moat. You're the winner of the AI revolution. But what about the 188 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:03,900 Speaker 2: disruption that's coming? If you have that kind of reallocation of 189 00:16:03,900 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 2: savings, you're talking about a bank run. And you're saying five years. I think you're 190 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 2: probably being generous, and you suspect it could be a lot quicker than that. Maybe 191 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,420 Speaker 2: generationally older people are slower to do it. let's give them a little bit more time on 192 00:16:16,420 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 2: that. That's hugely disruptive to the way the financial system works. 193 00:16:22,020 --> 00:16:28,780 Speaker 1: Yes. And the rate of change on the CapEx, the big warning sign is the capital expenditures. 194 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:35,180 Speaker 1: This is a testosterone contest in Silicon Valley. They don't have any idea when the payoff 195 00:16:35,180 --> 00:16:39,620 Speaker 1: is. And what's going to happen is the payoff is more out in the future. There's more 196 00:16:39,620 --> 00:16:45,780 Speaker 1: disruption in the near term and um then all of a sudden politicians look at the left wing 197 00:16:45,780 --> 00:16:51,180 Speaker 1: in europe and the united states they're coming at this hardcore they want to slow it down 198 00:16:51,180 --> 00:16:56,940 Speaker 1: and when once these guys start to uh slow down the capex which probably happens in the next 199 00:16:56,940 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: two to three months then you're gonna have a big reset in the mag 7 and that's where you 200 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: really don't want to touch the mag 7 or the indexes because once again the index is i mean 201 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: it should be if you're a fiduciary, right? Imagine you're like a fiduciary and somebody, 202 00:17:11,700 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: like a 75 -year -old person gives you a million dollars, right? A million dollars, you're 203 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: going to put in the stock market, 75 -year -olds going to put 500 ,000 of that as 204 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 1: essentially an AI. I mean, this is absolute madness, Maggie. It's madness and it 205 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:27,700 Speaker 1: has to be outed. 206 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 2: Everything we do on this channel has one goal, to make you a sharper, better informed 207 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:37,420 Speaker 2: investor, someone who understands the macro forces shaping your money before the mainstream 208 00:17:37,420 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 2: catches on, but information is only half of it. The other half is acting on it. And that's 209 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 2: what Wealthy on Membership is for. It's how you go from watching these conversations to 210 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:51,700 Speaker 2: putting them to work in your own portfolio. Membership opens three doors, access to 211 00:17:51,700 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 2: advisors, helping build real assets into your portfolio, and for accredited investors, 212 00:17:57,040 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 2: access to specialized funds. To learn more, the link to become a member is in the 213 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:02,100 Speaker 2: description box below. 214 00:18:03,540 --> 00:18:10,440 Speaker 2: So again, I think where you put things in terms of asset allocation depends on how you see 215 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:14,660 Speaker 2: this playing out. Let's talk about this macro regime a little bit because I think it's 216 00:18:14,660 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 2: really important. 217 00:18:17,460 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 2: What tells you that we are in a situation that's like maybe the 1980s where you have this 218 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:28,880 Speaker 2: supernova economy and then you're going to see some sort of recession or 219 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 2: you're going to see a correction and then you're going to have policymakers step in. Why? 220 00:18:34,860 --> 00:18:37,340 Speaker 2: Is that how you see it? Correct me if I'm wrong. 221 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:44,460 Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, never forget the rule of 72. So if you can get 9 % on a bond, 222 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: your money doubles in eight years. If you get 6 % on a bond, your money doubles in 12 223 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:55,660 Speaker 1: years. And so, and that's in a tax deferred account, of course. Now, once bonds start 224 00:18:55,660 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 1: offering equity -like returns like they did in the 80s, and that's because interest rates 225 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:08,060 Speaker 1: go up, bond prices come down, it starts to steal market share from the equity market. 226 00:19:08,540 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 1: And that's the big threat. The second threat is like gold and silver and hard assets. Right 227 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:18,540 Speaker 1: now, there's 43 trillion maggie in the NASDAQ 100. 228 00:19:18,980 --> 00:19:19,640 Speaker 2: In 229 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:25,880 Speaker 1: March, there was 30 trillion in the NASDAQ 100. This is America's wealth. Maggie, in the 230 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:32,440 Speaker 1: fourth quarter of 2022, there was $12 trillion in the NASDAQ 100. So we've gone from $12 to 231 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: $30 to $43 trillion. Think about that. Now, when you have a shock with 232 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:44,060 Speaker 1: interest rates, oil, multipolar world, we talk about this in our book, How to Listen to 233 00:19:44,060 --> 00:19:50,980 Speaker 1: Market Speak, that when you have a sustained inflation regime, the models start looking 234 00:19:50,980 --> 00:19:56,780 Speaker 1: at discounted cash flow. And all that means is companies that control hard assets, oil and 235 00:19:56,780 --> 00:19:57,620 Speaker 1: gas, 236 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 1: coal companies, any kind of metals, those companies tend to gain a larger portion of the 237 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:08,540 Speaker 1: market share of the market. 238 00:20:08,780 --> 00:20:08,980 Speaker 2: So 239 00:20:08,980 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 1: think about from 1968 to 81, Vietnam War, high interest rates, the Great Society, 240 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:17,140 Speaker 1: big government spending. 241 00:20:18,420 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 1: By the end of this inflation, high interest rate regime, by 1981, 50 % of the S &P 242 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 1: 500 was industrials, materials, and energy. 243 00:20:30,620 --> 00:20:37,620 Speaker 1: 50%. Today, we're like 14 % for those groups. We're not saying we're going back to 50%, but 244 00:20:37,620 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 1: over the next five years, we have to look forward not back right next five years trillions 245 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:48,340 Speaker 1: are going to come out of financial assets which are essentially growth stocks they're going 246 00:20:48,340 --> 00:20:53,160 Speaker 1: to go into companies to control hard assets and the percentage of the s p that's that's 247 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:58,500 Speaker 1: long industrials materials and energy energy that's going to go from you know 12 to 14 to 248 00:20:58,500 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 1: 20 to 30 that's where you want to you want to call your financial financial advisor and 249 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,780 Speaker 1: have them reconstruct the s p for you and both putting 250 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: more of your assets into those groups than into tech, which is essentially 50 % of the S 251 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:20,540 Speaker 1: &P. As a 70 -year -old or a 60 -year -old, you can't put a million dollars in the market 252 00:21:20,540 --> 00:21:25,740 Speaker 1: and have $500 ,000 of that essentially be the small amount of stocks that are all exposed 253 00:21:25,740 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: to AI. It's just absolute madness. It has to be outed. 254 00:21:31,740 --> 00:21:36,660 Speaker 2: And yet, if you had done that and people have been calling for that for a while, you missed 255 00:21:36,660 --> 00:21:41,880 Speaker 2: a lot of gains right it's the trade has has been to buy the dip in the nasdaq and it's 256 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:42,140 Speaker 2: worked 257 00:21:42,140 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 1: you know what people say that to me that's a lot of bs gold is crushing the net like look 258 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:52,700 Speaker 1: at the xme right there was just a metals etf last two years three years for it's basically 259 00:21:52,700 --> 00:21:57,340 Speaker 1: destroying the nasdaq but nobody knows because it's not on cnbc every day 260 00:21:57,340 --> 00:21:57,860 Speaker 2: you 261 00:21:57,860 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 1: know gold like gold over the last two, three years. It's just amazing how much 262 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:09,740 Speaker 1: airtime this gets because it's a bubble. But yeah, there's parts of the market that are 263 00:22:09,740 --> 00:22:16,300 Speaker 1: destroying the NASDAQ. Look at the MAG -7 up 15%, you know, since last October, 15, 16. 264 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:23,660 Speaker 1: The oil service names are up 50%. Schlumberger, nobody talks about it. It's crazy. The 265 00:22:23,660 --> 00:22:25,020 Speaker 1: MAG -7, it's a joke. 266 00:22:25,460 --> 00:22:29,780 Speaker 2: We talk about it a lot here on Wealthion, but this is the narrative we hear, and this is 267 00:22:29,780 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 2: why people come to us with questions, because they hear this, and then they sit with their 268 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:40,340 Speaker 2: neighbor whose portfolio is going sky high, and they say, oh, I got out of, they have that 269 00:22:40,340 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 2: regret. Like, I got out of NVIDIA. I thought it was rolling over. Everyone's kind of 270 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:48,140 Speaker 2: waiting for that crash. That doesn't seem to come. 271 00:22:48,540 --> 00:22:52,740 Speaker 1: Listen, you can't make money over the long term. You can't buy stocks that are trading at 272 00:22:52,740 --> 00:22:59,460 Speaker 1: 10, you know, Apple at 10 times sales. For 30 years, they traded between two to six 273 00:22:59,460 --> 00:23:04,440 Speaker 1: times sales. And, you know, they have, what's the new product? You know, it's, and then 274 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:09,640 Speaker 1: NVIDIA, like they're ripping off all these other guys with chips and they're overcharging 275 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 1: now. And eventually, you know, the new generations of chips, the older chips are getting 276 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:18,260 Speaker 1: cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. And NVIDIA is going to get cut in the next like two, three 277 00:23:18,260 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 1: years. 278 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,860 Speaker 2: And that is in everyone's portfolio, probably in multiple places, 279 00:23:22,940 --> 00:23:23,360 Speaker 1: which is 280 00:23:23,360 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 2: what we worry about. 281 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:31,180 Speaker 1: Maggie, in the 90s and 2000s, the top two stocks in the S &P 500 were 282 00:23:31,180 --> 00:23:37,580 Speaker 1: maybe 5 % or 6 % of the S &P. Now the top two stocks, NVIDIA is 283 00:23:37,580 --> 00:23:44,500 Speaker 1: 8%, and so call it Apple, it's like 6%, 13 % of the S &P is in two stocks. So once again, 284 00:23:44,580 --> 00:23:51,360 Speaker 1: I give you a million dollars, you get $130 ,000 in two stocks. Bob Marley, crack 285 00:23:51,360 --> 00:23:53,920 Speaker 1: smoking investing, crack smoking. 286 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,400 Speaker 2: I think everybody can relate to that. It kind of feels like getting through the day 287 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 2: anymore, Larry, with all the headlines. So let's talk about two things that are on the 288 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:10,780 Speaker 2: radar I want to get your take on. One of them is the fact that we have had China's central 289 00:24:10,780 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 2: bank making record purchases of gold in September. We have the Bundesbank president talking 290 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:21,740 Speaker 2: up the case for central banks diversifying into gold sort of out loud in popular media. How 291 00:24:21,740 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 2: much does that impact the price of gold? Because as you say, we've had the short term 292 00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 2: pulling it down. Is it a marginal support? Is this a bigger trend that is going to 293 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 2: look very different than what we've seen in past gold cycles? How are you thinking about 294 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 2: that relative to gold? 295 00:24:39,580 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 1: Well, my favorite word in our first book was hubris, and that was the Lehman management 296 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,820 Speaker 1: team. And that's just like an out -of -touch group of people. 297 00:24:50,060 --> 00:24:55,140 Speaker 1: Washington, from both Democrats and Republicans, the hubris in Washington the last 10 298 00:24:55,140 --> 00:25:00,160 Speaker 1: years, they've been hitting emerging market countries over the head with sanctions. They 299 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:06,300 Speaker 1: confiscated property from the Russians with the war, which Russia did some horrible things. 300 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:11,300 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, when you do that, other countries are like, you know what? They 301 00:25:11,300 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 1: could do that to me. 302 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:12,720 Speaker 2: And 303 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 1: that's why China's holdings of treasuries are down like 600, 700 billion in recent years. 304 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 1: And they're taking those treasury assets and they're buying gold and buying other things. 305 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:29,280 Speaker 1: And so, yeah, so the Washington basically triggered this massive incentive for all kinds 306 00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 1: of central banks to take money out of treasuries and put it into gold. They're literally 307 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,060 Speaker 1: smoking in the dynamite shed in Washington. 308 00:25:38,940 --> 00:25:45,640 Speaker 2: Now, given what we've seen going on, that we see that happening, we have 309 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:52,100 Speaker 2: all the pressure on yields. We're approaching the midterms. are you anticipating or 310 00:25:52,100 --> 00:25:57,380 Speaker 2: expecting any kind of policy action from the trump administration to try to address what 311 00:25:57,380 --> 00:26:01,660 Speaker 2: they're seeing when it comes to yields energy the economy they got their back up against 312 00:26:01,660 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 2: the wall 313 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 1: this is this is a really exciting exciting sexy story and i'm getting this remember we 314 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 1: do the ideas dinners in 10 countries a year new york next week miami palm beach over the 315 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 1: week after that um so we sit down with the best hedge funds mutual funds and pension funds 316 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 1: in a private room and we really kind of triangulate information we're trying to figure out 317 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,780 Speaker 1: okay you listen to the news cycle what's priced in 318 00:26:28,780 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 2: you 319 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:33,860 Speaker 1: know what are people what what's overpriced and what's not priced in that's what we 320 00:26:33,860 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 1: specialize in the bear trap support what's not priced in is the awareness of stable coins i 321 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:45,580 Speaker 1: sat down with john carlo the ceo of chether earlier this year in a private room, it's 322 00:26:45,580 --> 00:26:50,980 Speaker 1: absolutely jaw -dropping. You've gone from 100 billion of stablecoins. Think of stablecoins 323 00:26:50,980 --> 00:26:57,520 Speaker 1: own T -bills, Bitcoin, and gold, mostly T -bills. So there's treasuries. So you got from 324 00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:02,840 Speaker 1: 100 billion to 300 billion today, maybe 350. Look at circle equity, right? We did a trade 325 00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:08,420 Speaker 1: alert at 62 this year. It's up into the 90s. If the Clarity Act passes in Washington, 326 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 1: they're going to basically start to force money into stable coins. I think stable coins 327 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:20,360 Speaker 1: probably go in the next five years to a trillion, trillion and a half. And what that 328 00:27:20,360 --> 00:27:25,640 Speaker 1: means is they're going to force international investors. Say you have a trucking company in 329 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 1: Brazil, put your money in the bank, right? The bank in Brazil or Argentina, the currency is 330 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 1: all over the place, right? It's torture for some of these people, absolute torture. And so 331 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:39,880 Speaker 1: you take some of that money you put it into a stable coin and now all of a sudden you're in 332 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:45,500 Speaker 1: t -bills right so you have much more stability so they're going to steal trillions of 333 00:27:45,500 --> 00:27:50,160 Speaker 1: dollars from global the book global banking system they're going to actually create a 334 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 1: mechanism where they get the euro dollar clearing in london they hate that they want to 335 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 1: bring it back they want they're going to force international investors if you want to own u 336 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,860 Speaker 1: .s assets you want to own nvidia you want to own real estate you have to own a stable coin 337 00:28:01,860 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 1: first and have your money in the stable coin that'll force money into treasuries, the front 338 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 1: end of the yield curve, and that's how they can finance this $40 trillion debt hole. The 339 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:19,680 Speaker 1: only way out, Maggie, of a $40 trillion debt hole, there's two ways. Default or inflate 340 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:24,940 Speaker 1: your way out. And that's what we call financial repression. When you suppress rates through 341 00:28:24,940 --> 00:28:31,220 Speaker 1: mechanisms and tricks, you create financial repression, and that's what drives money into 342 00:28:31,220 --> 00:28:31,840 Speaker 1: hard assets. 343 00:28:32,100 --> 00:28:36,620 Speaker 2: So when they inflate the way out, I think the stablecoin story is super important. 344 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 2: First of all, who are they? When you say they, they are going to force everyone into 345 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,120 Speaker 2: stablecoin. Who are they? 346 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:53,060 Speaker 1: Well, let's be clear. This is not Republican or Democrat. This is a financial 347 00:28:53,060 --> 00:28:59,420 Speaker 1: crisis if they don't do it. Because we already saw it. China's got 600 348 00:28:59,420 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 1: billion less treasuries um japan other countries like france france is trying to finance 349 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 1: themselves you know their rates are going through the roof everyone's offering higher 350 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 1: interest rates so the u .s is going to have to they is like the the whether it be the fed 351 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 1: and the bottom line is think of world war ii okay after world war ii the fed and treasury 352 00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:25,180 Speaker 1: there are white papers out there you can explore them the fed and treasury worked much 353 00:29:25,180 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 1: closer together and because we were trying to finance this colossal war. Imagine trying to 354 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:36,180 Speaker 1: finance AI. Imagine trying to finance World War II. And so this is what we're up against. 355 00:29:36,860 --> 00:29:41,060 Speaker 1: They're going to work, when I say they, the Fed and Treasury, Republicans and Democrats, 356 00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 1: are going to create these mechanisms that are very financial repression like, and that's 357 00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 1: going to drive a lot of money from financial assets to hard assets. 358 00:29:50,180 --> 00:29:57,180 Speaker 2: And so it sounds like they, the US government at large, from all sides, are 359 00:29:57,180 --> 00:29:59,460 Speaker 2: getting ready to pull out the mother of all bazookas 360 00:29:59,460 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 1: yes because think about it the fiscal and monetary response to lehman brothers was four 361 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 1: trillion the fiscal and monetary response to covid and the regional bank crisis of 2023 362 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:17,100 Speaker 1: plus the elections and all that all the games they're playing when you run six percent 363 00:30:17,100 --> 00:30:22,700 Speaker 1: deficits the fiscal and monetary response this time since COVID is 17 trillion Maggie 364 00:30:22,700 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 1: versus four after leaving. So yeah, they are their backs against the wall here. They're 365 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 1: going to have to pull out every trick in the book to get out of this dead hole. 366 00:30:33,860 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 2: So when you're talking to all of these sort of people that are living in the future, all of 367 00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 2: these super smart folks, how I think that the average thought was that it's going to be 368 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:48,300 Speaker 2: financial repression and it's going to be yield curve control, devalue the dollar, yield 369 00:30:48,300 --> 00:30:55,080 Speaker 2: curve Control, maybe some other sort of operation, latest name. How does stable coins 370 00:30:55,080 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 2: look different or does it? Do stable coins change what that bazooka looks like? 371 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:06,980 Speaker 1: Well, in some ways, it's a part of yield curve control. In other words, they're not going 372 00:31:06,980 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 1: to come out and say yield curve control. That's like saying the pilot wants all the fannies 373 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 1: and the seats in the plane. we're 374 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:15,440 Speaker 2: crashing 375 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 1: yeah they're going to just do white paper and slowly look what they 376 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,820 Speaker 1: did with the trend mean you know this they're changing the goalposts on inflation right so 377 00:31:26,820 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 1: the definition of inflation like in the 80s and 90s and 2000s the formula we probably have 378 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:37,500 Speaker 1: like 15 inflation now use the old form they take the change of the formula your formula 379 00:31:37,500 --> 00:31:38,480 Speaker 1: again this week 380 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:38,900 Speaker 2: yeah 381 00:31:38,900 --> 00:31:44,960 Speaker 1: in the PC. So, so yeah, so stable coins are part of it. Whereas if you force an extra 2 382 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:51,500 Speaker 1: trillion in stable coins, they have to own T -bills, right? Which is treasury bills. And so 383 00:31:51,500 --> 00:31:55,020 Speaker 1: then you sell the debt on the front end of the yield curve, you got all these new buyers. 384 00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:59,340 Speaker 1: And in some ways, that's, it's not yield current control, but it's like another. 385 00:31:59,780 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 2: It's increasing demand for treasuries, which should help. Right. And then, but, but it's, 386 00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 2: it's a little bit different, I think, than people were thinking because you're also 387 00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 2: increasing demand for dollars. No, I mean, some people have pushed back on the devaluation, 388 00:32:14,300 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 2: debasement of the dollar, because if you institute some kind of global stable coin, you're 389 00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 2: basically reigning back in the euro dollar market from the wilderness, and you are 390 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 2: maintaining the dollar as a reserve currency. Yeah, 391 00:32:28,860 --> 00:32:34,820 Speaker 1: it's exactly. It's a speed bump toward the US. We talked about this in our book, When 392 00:32:34,820 --> 00:32:41,060 Speaker 1: Markets Speak. We have a bearish dollar chapter. We wrote the book in 2023. So we made a 393 00:32:41,060 --> 00:32:45,380 Speaker 1: great call. We wrote it in 22, 23. So we made a great call in dollar. Dollar is much lower 394 00:32:45,380 --> 00:32:51,040 Speaker 1: now. But in my lifetime or my kids' life, we're probably not going to lose our reserve 395 00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 1: currency status. They're going to come up with all these types of speed bumps along the 396 00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 1: way. 397 00:32:55,560 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 2: So why does that mean that hard assets 398 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:07,420 Speaker 2: are the trade as opposed to equities? If you're sort of pulling rates down, you're 399 00:33:07,420 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 2: basically creating all this liquidity to keep the whole thing going. Does that just not 400 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:16,980 Speaker 2: magnet toward equities? Because that's kind of what happens usually when we see rates 401 00:33:16,980 --> 00:33:20,840 Speaker 2: lower. It's certainly what equity people think now. I see people in chats all the time 402 00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:25,420 Speaker 2: saying Fed's eventually going to have to ease. That's just going to be rocket fuel for the 403 00:33:25,420 --> 00:33:25,960 Speaker 2: NASDAQ. 404 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:30,540 Speaker 1: Right. But I'm talking about equity. So I'm talking about companies that control hard 405 00:33:30,540 --> 00:33:34,140 Speaker 1: assets versus companies that control, say, software. So 406 00:33:34,140 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 2: you're being discerning about where that money is going to go to. There are going to be 407 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:39,760 Speaker 2: better winners. There are going to be winners out of this. 408 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:44,860 Speaker 1: So there's a scene in our book where we talk about discounted cash flows. So it's really 409 00:33:44,860 --> 00:33:50,240 Speaker 1: simple. So say you have a company, A, right? and it produces a billion dollars of cash flow 410 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 1: over 10 years, like a software company, a billion dollars of cash flow in 10 years. Think 411 00:33:55,520 --> 00:34:01,960 Speaker 1: about that. If you're in a 3 % to 6 % inflation regime with higher interest rates, that 412 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:08,440 Speaker 1: billion dollars is worth a lot less, a lot less 10 years from now. Now, company B 413 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:15,260 Speaker 1: controls oil and gas, gold, silver, in the ground, natural get all kinds of assets 414 00:34:15,260 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 1: if you're in that higher inflation regime those assets increase so 415 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:28,520 Speaker 1: the value of the company increases and that's why in that 1968 -81 regime where you had the 416 00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:33,180 Speaker 1: higher global yields and the higher inflation that's where those types of companies 417 00:34:33,180 --> 00:34:39,700 Speaker 1: flourished whereas the companies that own intellectual property tech those go out of favor 418 00:34:39,700 --> 00:34:43,280 Speaker 1: in that kind of regime, if that regime lasts for a long period of time. 419 00:34:44,820 --> 00:34:49,660 Speaker 2: There's been a, I want to stay on the bazooka issue or policy response issue for a moment. 420 00:34:49,860 --> 00:34:54,860 Speaker 2: So there, a lot of people have been watching with interest, some of the people who've been 421 00:34:54,860 --> 00:34:56,760 Speaker 2: coming onto Treasury as counselors. 422 00:34:58,540 --> 00:35:04,120 Speaker 2: We emailed briefly about this, Judy Shelton, long time sound money advocate, David Zervos, 423 00:35:04,300 --> 00:35:10,660 Speaker 2: and sort of wondering, are they cooking something up here? Do you think that there is some 424 00:35:10,660 --> 00:35:16,140 Speaker 2: chance that they revalue the gold? That's that's especially with Judy Shelton coming on. 425 00:35:16,240 --> 00:35:21,840 Speaker 2: That's one of the, you know, hypothesis that's running around. Do you see any potential for 426 00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:27,560 Speaker 2: that as a way to try to, as Scott Bestin said in the very beginning, recognize the assets 427 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,600 Speaker 2: on the balance sheet and not the debt? They've been kind of laying the groundwork for some 428 00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:36,680 Speaker 2: of this stuff. Does it seem like that is in any way imminent based on what the 429 00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:37,960 Speaker 2: conversations you're having with folks? 430 00:35:38,140 --> 00:35:44,220 Speaker 1: Right. So an empire in decline is what the United States is, kind of like the U .K. 80 431 00:35:44,220 --> 00:35:49,160 Speaker 1: years ago. And what happens along the way with the U .K. is they start moving out of Hong 432 00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:56,000 Speaker 1: Kong. They start, you know, taking, reining things in or monetizing assets. And the United 433 00:35:56,000 --> 00:36:00,660 Speaker 1: States has like all kinds of assets, Tennessee Valley Authority, parts of Yellowstone, 434 00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:07,820 Speaker 1: gold. But we have a lot more debt than our government assets. We have a lot of wealth 435 00:36:07,820 --> 00:36:13,340 Speaker 1: on that balance sheet too, which they can tax, right? But the government assets relative to 436 00:36:13,340 --> 00:36:17,020 Speaker 1: the debt is actually pretty crazy small. One of the things they could do, and this is what 437 00:36:17,020 --> 00:36:23,340 Speaker 1: an empire in decline would do, is they wouldn't reprice the gold, maybe put it up as 438 00:36:23,340 --> 00:36:28,880 Speaker 1: collateral and use it as a mechanism to support the treasury market with that collateral 439 00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:33,500 Speaker 1: somewhere. Yeah, there's a lot of tricks they can pull. We call it the sense bag of tricks, 440 00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:39,840 Speaker 1: right? We sat down with the next Treasury official at one of our dinners in recent weeks, 441 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:45,900 Speaker 1: and he was pretty confident that dissent has a number of weapons. Just think of this whole 442 00:36:45,900 --> 00:36:49,940 Speaker 1: debt ceiling thing, right? We're going to hit the debt ceiling in January. We're going to 443 00:36:49,940 --> 00:36:54,520 Speaker 1: have a split Congress, right? So most likely the House and Senate might be controlled by 444 00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:59,580 Speaker 1: the Democrats. Whenever you have that split government, maybe you go into what would hit 445 00:36:59,580 --> 00:37:04,460 Speaker 1: the debt ceiling. next thing you know treasury has a trillion dollars in the tga that's 446 00:37:04,460 --> 00:37:08,780 Speaker 1: their checking account right and then they have extraordinary measures of another 300 447 00:37:08,780 --> 00:37:14,800 Speaker 1: billion so we might not have any treasury issuance between like march april may june july 448 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:20,580 Speaker 1: next year no net issuance i'm talking about net it's complex but might have no net issuance 449 00:37:20,580 --> 00:37:26,520 Speaker 1: so that yeah there's a lot of things that they can do to to really get bond prices up over 450 00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:30,960 Speaker 1: the next uh six to nine months and this is like bonds are in a bear market we're just 451 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:36,940 Speaker 1: talking about a bear market rally right bonds are in a vicious bear um the probability of a 452 00:37:36,940 --> 00:37:42,040 Speaker 1: bear market rally look at the tlt that's something we're starting to to look at and buy 453 00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:47,800 Speaker 1: again the zroz because if you get a counter trend rally in the in the tlt and in bond 454 00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:54,240 Speaker 1: prices um between now and say in time next year you could potentially make with the coupons 455 00:37:54,240 --> 00:37:55,540 Speaker 1: 10 20 30 percent 456 00:37:55,540 --> 00:38:00,820 Speaker 2: it's probably good to ask time frame what is the time frame you're using for a lot of the 457 00:38:00,820 --> 00:38:05,160 Speaker 2: things that you're talking about? And we'll go through and sort of, you know, go over some 458 00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,540 Speaker 2: of what you've mentioned, but what's your general timeframe? 459 00:38:07,900 --> 00:38:12,260 Speaker 1: Well, I think with the Nike and the bear market rally and Nike and say bonds, that's like, 460 00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:18,480 Speaker 1: if in years where the S &P is up a lot, if you buy a basket of stocks that have that tax 461 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:24,140 Speaker 1: loss selling intensity, so the mutual fund quarter year end is typically the September 30th 462 00:38:24,140 --> 00:38:29,960 Speaker 1: October 30th. You know what, Maggie, they want these stocks off the pad, right? They don't 463 00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:34,880 Speaker 1: want to show people they own these things. So they puke them out. And then the retired 464 00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:39,820 Speaker 1: couples around the country are looking at their statement a year end. The accountant comes 465 00:38:39,820 --> 00:38:46,800 Speaker 1: in and says, hey, we need some losses. So they sell the dogs the next 30 days, and then 466 00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:52,180 Speaker 1: they buy it back in 31 days. And that's why you get this amazing January effect with the 467 00:38:52,180 --> 00:38:59,020 Speaker 1: losers. So yes, I think between now and June, July, these bonds and this kind of beat 468 00:38:59,020 --> 00:39:04,320 Speaker 1: -down basket of stocks could offer 30%, 40%, 50 % returns in some cases. 469 00:39:04,580 --> 00:39:08,160 Speaker 2: Wow. Dogs on sale. I think we want to pay attention to that. 470 00:39:08,580 --> 00:39:09,620 Speaker 1: Dogs on sale. 471 00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:17,100 Speaker 2: So just to circle back, you were talking about Apple before. And you sounded negative, 472 00:39:17,140 --> 00:39:20,920 Speaker 2: and yet you sounded interested in Apple's bonds with the idea that bond yields were going 473 00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:26,000 Speaker 2: to go down. So did I understand that correctly? And what is the distinction when you're 474 00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,340 Speaker 2: looking for some of those opportunities, 475 00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:34,020 Speaker 2: you know, equity versus bond? Because it sounds like Apple's a commodity. They, you know, 476 00:39:34,100 --> 00:39:39,200 Speaker 2: their memory costs are going up. They haven't had new products. And yet the bonds look 477 00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,080 Speaker 2: attractive if those treasury yields do go down, right? 478 00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:49,560 Speaker 1: Maggie, they're selling phones for $3 ,400. I mean, the first 479 00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,460 Speaker 1: iPhone I ever bought was like $700. 480 00:39:52,780 --> 00:39:56,120 Speaker 1: Now, granted, there's a lot more memory in there, a lot more sophistication, the whole 481 00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:56,340 Speaker 1: thing. 482 00:39:56,500 --> 00:39:58,840 Speaker 2: We're doing more with them. They're the center of your life. 483 00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:03,920 Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, yeah. But it's hard to sell. I mean, when you have McDonald's and Home Depot down 484 00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:10,720 Speaker 1: 35 % and Harley Davidson, all these consumer -facing companies, why is Apple at 485 00:40:10,720 --> 00:40:16,380 Speaker 1: $5 trillion? dollars. So I'm actually seeing people, this is a sophisticated trade, but if 486 00:40:16,380 --> 00:40:20,560 Speaker 1: you buy the bonds at 47, you take the coupons, say you put a million bucks in, you get the 487 00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:27,160 Speaker 1: coupons, maybe that's $30 ,000 on a million. And you buy like two -year puts on the Apple 488 00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:33,060 Speaker 1: equity. So think about this. So if the bonds are at 47, the only way that bond goes to 40 489 00:40:33,060 --> 00:40:37,480 Speaker 1: is if interest rates go up another one or two percent. That would decimate the economy. 490 00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:44,080 Speaker 1: That would kill Apple stock, right? Because they sell to consumers. So that's the type of 491 00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:49,140 Speaker 1: trade where bond volatility is through the roof. You're crashing over here. Stock 492 00:40:49,140 --> 00:40:55,300 Speaker 1: volatility is low and high prices. And so it's like a seesaw and it's going to flatten out. 493 00:40:55,700 --> 00:40:59,140 Speaker 1: And so that's why people are starting to look at bonds. 494 00:40:59,500 --> 00:41:03,580 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's super interesting. This is why it's not your passive game anymore, because 495 00:41:03,580 --> 00:41:08,460 Speaker 2: that is a much more sort of active view of what's going on. So let's talk about when we're 496 00:41:08,460 --> 00:41:12,160 Speaker 2: looking at the sort of portfolio a wheel. And let's face it, this is still what an awful 497 00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:17,280 Speaker 2: lot of people do. And I hear you bullish on hard assets. A lot of people interested in 498 00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:21,780 Speaker 2: commodities. We've been talking a lot with our audience about what diversification looks 499 00:41:21,780 --> 00:41:26,920 Speaker 2: like into real assets. But if the AI trade rolls over, what does that mean for commodity 500 00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:33,900 Speaker 2: demand? How much of that commodity, hard asset story, energy story is linked to 501 00:41:33,900 --> 00:41:36,640 Speaker 2: the demand, future demand that's expected to come from AI? 502 00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:42,980 Speaker 1: Right. So that is a piece of mystery meat. So the first stage of AI is very 503 00:41:42,980 --> 00:41:49,100 Speaker 1: inflationary because look at Caterpillar. The stock is up 300 % in like a year and a half. 504 00:41:49,300 --> 00:41:56,120 Speaker 1: It's nuts, you know, because all of those data centers need construction equipment and 505 00:41:56,120 --> 00:42:00,120 Speaker 1: things like that. So, and then think of all the building out of the data centers, think of 506 00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:05,940 Speaker 1: all the copper, you know, think of, think of like this, there's hundreds of thousands of 507 00:42:05,940 --> 00:42:11,120 Speaker 1: tons of copper are going to be needed for the data centers to rebuild the power grid. 508 00:42:11,780 --> 00:42:17,580 Speaker 1: Maggie, there's a billion people in India that don't have air conditioning, you know, so 509 00:42:17,580 --> 00:42:23,060 Speaker 1: you have to build out energy infrastructure over there. And so hard assets are the place to 510 00:42:23,060 --> 00:42:29,020 Speaker 1: be. But then if the AI trade slows down and you go from, say, you're supposed to do a 511 00:42:29,020 --> 00:42:34,720 Speaker 1: thousand data centers built in the next seven years, and that number comes down to seven, 512 00:42:35,100 --> 00:42:40,620 Speaker 1: you know what? It does slow down the hard asset trade. But remember, there's $43 trillion 513 00:42:40,620 --> 00:42:47,400 Speaker 1: of wealth in the NASDAQ 100, and in the metals ETF, the XME, it's like not even a trillion 514 00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:53,600 Speaker 1: dollars, right? So because there's so much wealth over here and no wealth over here 515 00:42:53,600 --> 00:43:00,320 Speaker 1: relative, household wealth in 1981, household wealth was like 4 % of assets of 516 00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:06,360 Speaker 1: American wealth was in commodities or commodity equities. Now we're like less than maybe 517 00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:07,200 Speaker 1: 1%. 518 00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:07,860 Speaker 2: And 519 00:43:07,860 --> 00:43:13,180 Speaker 1: so even if there's an AI slowdown, it's that rebalancing of the wealth globally that will 520 00:43:13,180 --> 00:43:18,180 Speaker 1: support these stocks. By the way, these stocks are cheap. You can get natural gas companies 521 00:43:18,180 --> 00:43:24,840 Speaker 1: get 8%, 9%, 10 % free cash flow yields. Look at Antero range resources. The companies are 522 00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:30,060 Speaker 1: buying back 10 % to 15 % of the equity underneath you with that free cash flow. 523 00:43:30,060 --> 00:43:30,900 Speaker 2: And 524 00:43:30,900 --> 00:43:37,280 Speaker 1: so on valuation alone, it just, I'm not saying things can't go down, but your risk -reward 525 00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:42,860 Speaker 1: to belong, something that is producing free cash with the company buying back stock 526 00:43:42,860 --> 00:43:47,660 Speaker 1: underneath you, that risk -reward is a lot better than the AI insanity. 527 00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:52,740 Speaker 2: Yeah. And we talked about stablecoin, and this is something we'll continue to look into 528 00:43:52,740 --> 00:43:57,200 Speaker 2: because this is a really big change that's coming. I'm not surprised it's all the talk at 529 00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:01,880 Speaker 2: your idea dinners. What's the trade on stablecoin? that's what i think gets people stumped 530 00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:05,840 Speaker 2: i mean is it is it circle it seems limited is there a trade there 531 00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:11,380 Speaker 1: that's the problem yeah the only one there's i mean i'm sure others are going to be circles 532 00:44:11,380 --> 00:44:15,720 Speaker 1: one of the main ones because you think of the market share globally now um you've got 533 00:44:15,720 --> 00:44:20,360 Speaker 1: tether and circle are probably 60 70 80 percent of the market there'll be new players that 534 00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:21,860 Speaker 1: come on maybe ipos that 535 00:44:21,860 --> 00:44:22,360 Speaker 2: that 536 00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,840 Speaker 1: allow you to take care of that but then there's on the other side of the coin there's 537 00:44:26,660 --> 00:44:32,920 Speaker 1: bitcoin and gold right so just look at tether when i sat down with sean carlo he's like 538 00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:37,680 Speaker 1: you know the vault he has in switzerland this gold is mind -blowing 539 00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:42,200 Speaker 2: i was obsessed when i saw the stories of them buying gold i don't think it got nearly the 540 00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:43,060 Speaker 2: amount of attention it should 541 00:44:43,060 --> 00:44:47,340 Speaker 1: oh yeah no he's backing up the truck he's got his he has his own stable coin this is his 542 00:44:47,340 --> 00:44:51,640 Speaker 1: own coin that's backed by gold then he's got the tether which is gold and t -bills and 543 00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:57,220 Speaker 1: bitcoin Bitcoin, we've been buying. We bought some this summer on the lows. You know, 544 00:44:57,280 --> 00:45:02,320 Speaker 1: Kramer put the sell on it. God bless him. But, you know, we bought some on the lows and we 545 00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:07,460 Speaker 1: recently lightened it. I'm worried about quantum computing because at the dinners, you 546 00:45:07,460 --> 00:45:11,540 Speaker 1: know, two years ago, if we said quantum computing is a threat to Bitcoin, you know, it was 547 00:45:11,540 --> 00:45:12,300 Speaker 1: like a joke. 548 00:45:12,700 --> 00:45:13,140 Speaker 2: But, 549 00:45:13,260 --> 00:45:18,900 Speaker 1: you know, now I would say 50 % of institutional investors think it's a threat five to seven 550 00:45:18,900 --> 00:45:24,420 Speaker 1: years from now. But then the other side of that coin is, you know what, if it's a threat to 551 00:45:24,420 --> 00:45:30,160 Speaker 1: Bitcoin and unlocking the code to the creation of Bitcoin, then what's it going to do to 552 00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:31,520 Speaker 1: your bank account, Maggie? 553 00:45:33,900 --> 00:45:34,360 Speaker 1: Are 554 00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:38,640 Speaker 2: you looking at cybersecurity? Are you looking at anybody who's solving? Is anybody is 555 00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:40,460 Speaker 2: anybody looking and playing in that area? 556 00:45:41,020 --> 00:45:45,560 Speaker 1: That's an area. And now the cybersecurity stocks are all crazy right now. But yeah, all the 557 00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:48,520 Speaker 1: dips. Absolutely. We've got to create a basket of those. 558 00:45:48,900 --> 00:45:53,100 Speaker 2: You know, we'll finish up here, Larry, but this has been a fascinating conversation. And I 559 00:45:53,100 --> 00:46:00,080 Speaker 2: think it just shows that you can't just have a sort of, I don't even want to call it 560 00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:03,560 Speaker 2: passive, but it sounds like we're in an environment where you have to be really nimble. You 561 00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:07,100 Speaker 2: have to be paying attention. You have to be looking at your portfolio all of the time 562 00:46:07,100 --> 00:46:12,560 Speaker 2: because there's so many cross currents. How do you stick to your investing principles when 563 00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:18,280 Speaker 2: you have this sort of, you know, bull market in this really narrow NASDAQ that never ends. 564 00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:23,980 Speaker 2: You have these signs of things changing, and then it seems like it rolls back. You have 565 00:46:23,980 --> 00:46:27,900 Speaker 2: massive government intervention in a way that we haven't seen in a long time. How do you 566 00:46:27,900 --> 00:46:29,400 Speaker 2: kind of stick to your investing principles? 567 00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:35,300 Speaker 1: Right. And that's the thing. Whenever something's too good to be true, you always want to 568 00:46:35,300 --> 00:46:41,960 Speaker 1: start to go the other way. And so passive investing, it looks like the dumb, it's really 569 00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:47,180 Speaker 1: dumb money to me, but it works because more and more money comes into passive and the 570 00:46:47,180 --> 00:46:52,640 Speaker 1: indexes have to buy the top six stocks and it just becomes dumber and dumber and dumber. 571 00:46:53,160 --> 00:47:00,100 Speaker 1: And so, but we're at a point where it's so extreme with the 50 % of the S 572 00:47:00,100 --> 00:47:06,780 Speaker 1: &P that's in one sector that people are starting, like literally the best, so about 573 00:47:06,780 --> 00:47:12,060 Speaker 1: 10 % of our clients are financial advisors and they're literally reconstructing the S &P. 574 00:47:12,220 --> 00:47:16,620 Speaker 1: I'm talking like the big guys that have like billion dollar financial advisors. They don't 575 00:47:16,620 --> 00:47:20,560 Speaker 1: trust their in -house research. They love bear trap because they can, you know, they listen 576 00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:24,340 Speaker 1: to their in -house research, but they also want to have another view. And so they're, yeah, 577 00:47:24,420 --> 00:47:30,260 Speaker 1: they're just, buy the RRSP or the S &P 500 equal weight, which is, that's another way to 578 00:47:30,260 --> 00:47:36,300 Speaker 1: own the S &P or have a financial advisor reconstruct the S &P for you that puts more weight 579 00:47:36,300 --> 00:47:37,980 Speaker 1: on companies that control hard assets. 580 00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:42,520 Speaker 2: Fantastic stuff. Larry, so fun. This went by so quick. I could keep you much longer, but, 581 00:47:42,540 --> 00:47:45,680 Speaker 2: you know, we know we see those screens blinking behind you, so we know you got a lot of 582 00:47:45,680 --> 00:47:48,800 Speaker 2: work to do. But thank you for your time, and come back and see us again soon. 583 00:47:49,220 --> 00:47:50,520 Speaker 1: Thanks, Maggie. All the best.