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You're just worried about the concentration. 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Think about this. essentially the S &P is 50 % tech. 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It's already happened. 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And the bottom", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 485.56, "end": 485.9, "word": " recession", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 485.9, "end": 486.16, "word": " goes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 486.16, "end": 486.38, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 486.38, "end": 486.52, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 486.52, "end": 487.12, "word": " 4%,", "probability": 0.996337890625 }, { "start": 487.12, "end": 488.44, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.44, "end": 488.74, "word": " Apple", "probability": 0.9765625 }, { "start": 488.74, "end": 489.06, "word": " bond's", "probability": 0.961669921875 }, { "start": 489.06, "end": 489.16, "word": " going", "probability": 0.77099609375 }, { "start": 489.16, "end": 489.22, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.22, "end": 489.32, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.32, "end": 489.6, "word": " worth", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.6, "end": 489.98, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.98, "end": 490.6, "word": " 72,", "probability": 0.91796875 }, { "start": 490.84, "end": 491.22, "word": " 73.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 491.52, "end": 491.86, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 491.86, "end": 491.98, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 491.98, "end": 492.22, "word": " bottom", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 492.22, "end": 498.28, "text": "line for people watching us right now, that's 18 % a year if that happens in the next three", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 492.22, "end": 492.48, "word": " line", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 492.48, "end": 492.6, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 492.6, "end": 492.82, "word": " people", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 492.82, "end": 493.14, "word": " watching", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.14, "end": 493.32, "word": " us", "probability": 0.95556640625 }, { "start": 493.32, "end": 493.48, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.48, "end": 493.68, "word": " now,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.8, "end": 493.98, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.98, "end": 494.66, "word": " 18", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 494.66, "end": 495.1, "word": "%", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 495.1, "end": 495.5, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 495.5, "end": 495.9, "word": " year", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 495.9, "end": 496.4, "word": " if", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 496.4, "end": 496.58, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 496.58, "end": 497.14, "word": " happens", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 497.14, "end": 497.7, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 497.7, "end": 497.8, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 497.8, "end": 498.02, "word": " next", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 498.02, "end": 498.28, "word": " three", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 498.28, "end": 505.08, "text": "years. So it's like the 80s here, Maggie. Bonds are starting to offer equity like returns", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 498.28, "end": 498.6, "word": " years.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 498.9, "end": 499.3, "word": " So", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 499.3, "end": 500.2, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.990966796875 }, { "start": 500.2, "end": 500.48, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 500.48, "end": 500.66, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 500.66, "end": 501.1, "word": " 80s", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 501.1, "end": 501.26, "word": " here,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 501.38, "end": 501.6, "word": " Maggie.", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 501.86, "end": 502.4, "word": " Bonds", "probability": 0.998291015625 }, { "start": 502.4, "end": 502.56, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 502.56, "end": 502.84, "word": " starting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 502.84, "end": 503.0, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 503.0, "end": 503.4, "word": " offer", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 503.4, "end": 504.04, "word": " equity", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 504.04, "end": 504.4, "word": " like", "probability": 0.7333984375 }, { "start": 504.4, "end": 505.08, "word": " returns", "probability": 0.97900390625 } ] }, { "start": 505.08, "end": 508.48, "text": "because they've crashed like it's 1929.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 505.08, "end": 505.86, "word": " because", "probability": 0.845703125 }, { "start": 505.86, "end": 506.22, "word": " they've", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 506.22, "end": 506.92, "word": " crashed", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 506.92, "end": 507.52, "word": " like", "probability": 0.931640625 }, { "start": 507.52, "end": 507.72, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 507.72, "end": 508.48, "word": " 1929.", "probability": 0.9921875 } ] }, { "start": 509.28, "end": 515.28, "text": "So this is the smart trade, the smart money for you is everyone opportunistically looking", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 509.28, "end": 509.82, "word": " So", "probability": 0.6298828125 }, { "start": 509.82, "end": 510.38, "word": " this", "probability": 0.90869140625 }, { "start": 510.38, "end": 510.6, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 510.6, "end": 510.78, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 510.78, "end": 511.1, "word": " smart", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 511.1, "end": 511.44, "word": " trade,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 511.62, "end": 511.62, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 511.62, "end": 511.86, "word": " smart", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 511.86, "end": 512.08, "word": " money", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 512.08, "end": 512.28, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 512.28, "end": 512.54, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 512.54, "end": 512.84, "word": " is", "probability": 0.3134765625 }, { "start": 512.84, "end": 513.4, "word": " everyone", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 513.4, "end": 514.78, "word": " opportunistically", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 514.78, "end": 515.28, "word": " looking", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 515.28, "end": 518.84, "text": "for trades that will work if interest rates go down.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 515.28, "end": 515.82, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 515.82, "end": 516.54, "word": " trades", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 516.54, "end": 516.74, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 516.74, "end": 516.9, "word": " will", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 516.9, "end": 517.36, "word": " work", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 517.36, "end": 517.8, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 517.8, "end": 518.12, "word": " interest", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 518.12, "end": 518.36, "word": " rates", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 518.36, "end": 518.56, "word": " go", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 518.56, "end": 518.84, "word": " down.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 519.18, "end": 524.18, "text": "Right. And another one, I mean, let me just look at, think about Nike, Maggie, right? Think", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 519.18, "end": 519.32, "word": " Right.", "probability": 0.97412109375 }, { "start": 519.96, "end": 520.14, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 520.14, "end": 520.58, "word": " another", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 520.58, "end": 520.8, "word": " one,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 521.18, "end": 521.2, "word": " I", "probability": 0.98779296875 }, { "start": 521.2, "end": 521.32, "word": " mean,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 521.4, "end": 521.44, "word": " let", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 521.44, "end": 521.54, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 521.54, "end": 521.7, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 521.7, "end": 521.88, "word": " look", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 521.88, "end": 522.22, "word": " at,", "probability": 0.94970703125 }, { "start": 522.36, "end": 522.92, "word": " think", "probability": 0.98779296875 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near 3", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 530.78, "end": 531.72, "word": " uh", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 531.72, "end": 532.32, "word": " almost", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.32, "end": 533.24, "word": " 75", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 533.24, "end": 533.6, "word": " 80", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 533.6, "end": 534.16, "word": " off", "probability": 0.9326171875 }, { "start": 534.16, "end": 535.14, "word": " you've", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 535.14, "end": 535.28, "word": " got", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 535.28, "end": 535.54, "word": " free", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 535.54, "end": 535.98, "word": " cash", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 535.98, "end": 536.22, "word": " flow", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 536.22, "end": 536.42, "word": " at", "probability": 0.97607421875 }, { "start": 536.42, "end": 536.72, "word": " nike", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { 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So 360. So in other words, the capitulation score that we're getting in Nike is", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 550.2, "end": 550.62, "word": " shares.", "probability": 0.7578125 }, { "start": 551.14, "end": 551.14, "word": " So", "probability": 0.92431640625 }, { "start": 551.14, "end": 551.52, "word": " 360.", "probability": 0.775390625 }, { "start": 552.04, "end": 552.28, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 552.28, "end": 552.38, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 552.38, "end": 552.5, "word": " other", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 552.5, "end": 552.68, "word": " words,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 553.06, "end": 553.34, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 553.34, "end": 554.24, "word": " capitulation", "probability": 0.949951171875 }, { "start": 554.24, "end": 554.68, "word": " score", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 554.68, "end": 554.84, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 554.84, "end": 554.98, "word": " we're", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 554.98, "end": 555.18, "word": " getting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 555.18, "end": 555.32, "word": " in", "probability": 0.8876953125 }, { "start": 555.32, "end": 555.6, "word": " Nike", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 555.6, "end": 556.58, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9970703125 } ] }, { "start": 556.58, "end": 563.08, "text": "Category 5. It's like Exxon Mobil in November of 21. 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We're talking like Category 5 storm as in a", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 563.4, "end": 564.0, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.996826171875 }, { "start": 564.0, "end": 564.12, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 564.12, "end": 564.7, "word": " Intel", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 564.7, "end": 565.14, "word": " a", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 565.14, "end": 565.3, "word": " year", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 565.3, "end": 565.44, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 565.44, "end": 565.5, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 565.5, "end": 565.7, "word": " half", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 565.7, "end": 565.94, "word": " ago.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 566.1, "end": 566.5, "word": " We're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 566.5, "end": 566.72, "word": " talking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 566.72, "end": 566.92, "word": " like", "probability": 0.9716796875 }, { "start": 566.92, "end": 567.4, "word": " Category", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 567.4, "end": 567.72, "word": " 5", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 567.72, "end": 568.14, "word": " storm", "probability": 0.580078125 }, { "start": 568.14, "end": 568.44, "word": " as", "probability": 0.955078125 }, { "start": 568.44, "end": 568.56, "word": " in", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 568.56, "end": 568.64, "word": " a", "probability": 0.953125 } ] }, { "start": 568.64, "end": 568.96, "text": "hurricane.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 568.64, "end": 568.96, "word": " hurricane.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 569.16, "end": 569.72, "text": "This", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 569.16, "end": 569.72, "word": " This", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 569.72, "end": 576.4, "text": "is what just happened to Nike. When you can buy a world -class brand that's trading 30 %", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 569.72, "end": 569.92, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 569.92, "end": 570.22, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 570.22, "end": 570.46, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 570.46, "end": 570.82, "word": " happened", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 570.82, "end": 570.98, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 570.98, "end": 571.28, "word": " Nike.", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 571.5, "end": 571.78, "word": " When", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 571.78, "end": 571.86, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 571.86, "end": 572.0, "word": " can", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 572.0, "end": 572.16, "word": " buy", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 572.16, "end": 572.28, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 572.28, "end": 572.52, "word": " world", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 572.52, "end": 572.84, "word": "-class", "probability": 0.96337890625 }, { "start": 572.84, "end": 573.24, "word": " brand", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 573.24, "end": 574.24, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 574.24, "end": 574.72, "word": " trading", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 574.72, "end": 575.94, "word": " 30", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 575.94, "end": 576.4, "word": "%", "probability": 0.9912109375 } ] }, { "start": 576.4, "end": 583.38, "text": "below its 200 month moving average. You do that every day of the week and twice on Sunday.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 576.4, "end": 577.36, "word": " below", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 577.36, "end": 577.64, "word": " its", "probability": 0.98876953125 }, { "start": 577.64, "end": 578.46, "word": " 200", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 578.46, "end": 579.08, "word": " month", "probability": 0.90380859375 }, { "start": 579.08, "end": 579.48, "word": " moving", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 579.48, "end": 579.92, "word": " average.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 580.78, "end": 581.22, "word": " You", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 581.22, "end": 581.38, "word": " do", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 581.38, "end": 581.6, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 581.6, "end": 581.96, "word": " every", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 581.96, "end": 582.1, "word": " day", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 582.1, "end": 582.24, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 582.24, "end": 582.3, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 582.3, "end": 582.5, "word": " week", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 582.5, "end": 582.64, "word": " and", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 582.64, "end": 582.88, "word": " twice", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 582.88, "end": 583.06, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 583.06, "end": 583.38, "word": " Sunday.", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 583.6, "end": 587.8, "text": "It's funny, Larry, because you're the author of the Bear Traps Report, but this is like a", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 583.6, "end": 583.96, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 583.96, "end": 584.14, "word": " funny,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 584.32, "end": 584.46, "word": " Larry,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 584.54, "end": 584.66, "word": " because", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 584.66, "end": 585.04, "word": " you're", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 585.04, "end": 585.14, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 585.14, "end": 585.36, "word": " author", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 585.36, "end": 585.48, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 585.48, "end": 585.58, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8759765625 }, { "start": 585.58, "end": 585.8, "word": " Bear", "probability": 0.759765625 }, { "start": 585.8, "end": 586.22, "word": " Traps", "probability": 0.9853515625 }, { "start": 586.22, "end": 586.5, "word": " Report,", "probability": 0.65087890625 }, { "start": 586.5, "end": 587.08, "word": " but", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 587.08, "end": 587.5, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 587.5, "end": 587.62, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 587.62, "end": 587.72, "word": " like", "probability": 0.59912109375 }, { "start": 587.72, "end": 587.8, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 587.8, "end": 593.8, "text": "really bullish conversation about parts of the market that you think are", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 587.8, "end": 587.98, "word": " really", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 587.98, "end": 588.56, "word": " bullish", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 588.56, "end": 589.9, "word": " conversation", "probability": 0.81494140625 }, { "start": 589.9, "end": 591.04, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 591.04, "end": 591.76, "word": " parts", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 591.76, "end": 591.86, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 591.86, "end": 591.94, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 591.94, "end": 592.28, "word": " market", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 592.28, "end": 592.82, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 592.82, "end": 593.18, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 593.18, "end": 593.46, "word": " think", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 593.46, "end": 593.8, "word": " are", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 593.8, "end": 596.18, "text": "grossly mispriced.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 593.8, "end": 595.26, "word": " grossly", "probability": 0.87451171875 }, { "start": 595.26, "end": 596.18, "word": " mispriced.", "probability": 0.9979248046875 } ] }, { "start": 596.3, "end": 602.58, "text": "Yeah. Make no mistake. 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It's probably going to be flat for eight", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 602.58, "end": 602.66, "word": " S", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 602.66, "end": 602.78, "word": "&P", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 602.78, "end": 602.9, "word": " is", "probability": 0.984375 }, { "start": 602.9, "end": 603.0, "word": " going", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 603.0, "end": 603.06, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 603.06, "end": 603.28, "word": " drop", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 603.28, "end": 603.64, "word": " 30", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 603.64, "end": 604.0, "word": "%", "probability": 0.9736328125 }, { "start": 604.0, "end": 604.86, "word": " over", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 604.86, "end": 605.0, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 605.0, "end": 605.18, "word": " next", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 605.18, "end": 605.42, "word": " year.", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 605.54, "end": 605.58, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 605.58, "end": 605.9, "word": " probably", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 605.9, "end": 606.02, "word": " going", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 606.02, "end": 606.08, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 606.08, "end": 606.18, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 606.18, "end": 606.54, "word": " flat", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 606.54, "end": 606.86, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 606.86, "end": 607.2, "word": " eight", "probability": 0.9755859375 } ] }, { "start": 607.2, "end": 612.92, "text": "years. Let's see what happened in 2000 to 2010. The S &P didn't go down. 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It was flat. 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This is what we're coming into. 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So let's talk a little bit about what we'll dig in again about sort of", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 626.04, "end": 626.48, "word": " I", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 626.48, "end": 626.64, "word": " love", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 626.64, "end": 626.8, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 626.8, "end": 627.12, "word": " visual.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 627.38, "end": 627.64, "word": " So", "probability": 0.97412109375 }, { "start": 627.64, "end": 627.92, "word": " let's", "probability": 0.975341796875 }, { "start": 627.92, "end": 628.14, "word": " talk", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 628.14, "end": 628.28, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 628.28, "end": 628.38, "word": " little", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 628.38, "end": 628.54, "word": " bit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 628.54, "end": 628.88, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 628.88, "end": 629.36, "word": " what", "probability": 0.439697265625 }, { "start": 629.36, "end": 630.14, "word": " we'll", "probability": 0.940673828125 }, { "start": 630.14, "end": 630.66, "word": " dig", "probability": 0.76171875 }, { "start": 630.66, "end": 630.84, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 630.84, "end": 631.02, "word": " again", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 631.02, "end": 631.3, "word": " about", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 631.3, "end": 631.5, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.93798828125 }, { "start": 631.5, "end": 631.6, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 631.6, "end": 637.28, "text": "portfolio construction and framework in a minute. it. But let's talk a little bit about", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 631.6, "end": 632.12, "word": " portfolio", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 632.12, "end": 633.0, "word": " construction", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 633.94, "end": 634.38, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 634.38, "end": 634.82, "word": " framework", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 634.82, "end": 635.18, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 635.18, "end": 635.5, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 635.5, "end": 635.68, "word": " minute.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 635.68, "end": 635.78, "word": " it.", "probability": 0.19677734375 }, { "start": 635.92, "end": 636.0, "word": " But", "probability": 0.95361328125 }, { "start": 636.0, "end": 636.46, "word": " let's", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 636.46, "end": 636.6, "word": " talk", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.6, "end": 636.74, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.74, "end": 636.84, "word": " little", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.84, "end": 636.96, "word": " bit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.96, "end": 637.28, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 637.28, "end": 643.2, "text": "bond yields, because it seems all of this is centered on yields going lower, right? That's", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 637.28, "end": 637.82, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 637.82, "end": 638.14, "word": " yields,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 638.18, "end": 638.42, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 638.42, "end": 638.6, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 638.6, "end": 638.86, "word": " seems", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 638.86, "end": 639.28, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 639.28, "end": 639.46, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 639.46, "end": 639.9, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 639.9, "end": 640.5, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 640.5, "end": 640.86, "word": " centered", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 640.86, "end": 641.18, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 641.18, "end": 641.5, "word": " yields", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 641.5, "end": 641.78, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 641.78, "end": 642.12, "word": " lower,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 642.74, "end": 642.82, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 642.92, "end": 643.2, "word": " That's", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 643.2, "end": 648.64, "text": "the premise, that yields have to flip at some point. So government bond yields around the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 643.2, "end": 643.3, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 643.3, "end": 643.62, "word": " premise,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 643.76, "end": 643.86, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 643.86, "end": 644.24, "word": " yields", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 644.24, "end": 644.58, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 644.58, "end": 644.92, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 644.92, "end": 645.94, "word": " flip", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 645.94, "end": 646.14, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 646.14, "end": 646.34, "word": " some", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 646.34, "end": 646.7, "word": " point.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 646.88, "end": 647.32, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 647.32, "end": 647.84, "word": " government", "probability": 0.93359375 }, { "start": 647.84, "end": 648.12, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 648.12, "end": 648.34, "word": " yields", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 648.34, "end": 648.5, "word": " around", "probability": 0.8330078125 }, { "start": 648.5, "end": 648.64, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 648.64, "end": 653.12, "text": "world rising. 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Are we watching a sovereign bond crisis gather steam?", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 658.06, "end": 658.34, "word": " 30", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 658.34, "end": 658.6, "word": "-year.", "probability": 0.8515625 }, { "start": 659.26, "end": 659.74, "word": " Are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 659.74, "end": 660.02, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.02, "end": 660.42, "word": " watching", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.42, "end": 660.62, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.62, "end": 661.0, "word": " sovereign", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 661.0, "end": 661.36, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 661.36, "end": 661.86, "word": " crisis", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 661.86, "end": 662.24, "word": " gather", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 662.24, "end": 662.66, "word": " steam?", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 662.9, "end": 669.88, "text": "There's no question. 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That's probably going to trigger that kind of crisis", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 676.66, "end": 677.34, "word": " situation", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 677.34, "end": 677.96, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 677.96, "end": 678.08, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 678.08, "end": 678.38, "word": " global", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 678.38, "end": 678.7, "word": " bond", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 678.7, "end": 679.14, "word": " market.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 679.92, "end": 680.36, "word": " That's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 680.36, "end": 680.78, "word": " probably", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 680.78, "end": 680.94, "word": " going", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 680.94, "end": 681.04, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 681.04, "end": 681.4, "word": " trigger", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 681.4, "end": 682.1, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 682.1, "end": 682.32, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 682.32, "end": 682.52, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 682.52, "end": 683.06, "word": " crisis", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 683.06, "end": 687.3, "text": "in the index, the S &P, in the next couple of months. 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But what I mean is in terms of, I'm sorry, the U .S. 30 -year, U .S. 10 -year. 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And", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 771.2, "end": 771.68, "word": " $150", "probability": 0.913818359375 }, { "start": 771.68, "end": 772.1, "word": " billion", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 772.1, "end": 772.28, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 772.28, "end": 772.38, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 772.38, "end": 772.48, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 772.48, "end": 773.02, "word": " leave", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 773.02, "end": 773.3, "word": " Bank", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 773.3, "end": 773.52, "word": " of", "probability": 0.8857421875 }, { "start": 773.52, "end": 773.84, "word": " America", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 773.84, "end": 774.14, "word": " over", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 774.14, "end": 774.22, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 774.22, "end": 774.38, "word": " next", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 774.38, "end": 774.7, "word": " year,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 774.92, "end": 775.34, "word": " maybe", "probability": 0.95849609375 }, { "start": 775.34, "end": 775.68, "word": " five", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 775.68, "end": 775.92, "word": " years.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 776.08, "end": 776.46, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9970703125 } ] }, { "start": 776.46, "end": 781.6, "text": "that's a huge, juicy part of their profits. They're ripping off investors right now because", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 776.46, "end": 776.72, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 776.72, "end": 776.86, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 776.86, "end": 777.26, "word": " huge,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 777.46, "end": 777.74, "word": " juicy", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 777.74, "end": 778.12, "word": " part", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 778.12, "end": 778.24, "word": " of", "probability": 0.90966796875 }, { "start": 778.24, "end": 778.36, "word": " their", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 778.36, "end": 778.86, "word": " profits.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 779.24, "end": 779.72, "word": " They're", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 779.72, "end": 780.18, "word": " ripping", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 780.18, "end": 780.48, "word": " off", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 780.48, "end": 780.92, "word": " investors", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 780.92, "end": 781.18, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 781.18, "end": 781.34, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 781.34, "end": 781.6, "word": " because", "probability": 0.85302734375 } ] }, { "start": 781.6, "end": 787.24, "text": "they're sitting on that money. They're taking in the $200 billion, $300 billion. I think", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 781.6, "end": 782.9, "word": " they're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 782.9, "end": 783.14, "word": " sitting", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 783.14, "end": 783.36, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 783.36, "end": 783.52, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 783.52, "end": 783.78, "word": " money.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 783.9, "end": 784.02, "word": " They're", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 784.02, "end": 784.24, "word": " taking", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 784.24, "end": 784.46, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 784.46, "end": 784.6, "word": " the", "probability": 0.96484375 }, { "start": 784.6, "end": 785.72, "word": " $200", "probability": 0.978515625 }, { "start": 785.72, "end": 785.9, "word": " billion,", "probability": 0.521484375 }, { "start": 785.9, "end": 786.06, "word": " $300", "probability": 0.994384765625 }, { "start": 786.06, "end": 787.02, "word": " billion.", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 787.1, "end": 787.16, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 787.16, "end": 787.24, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 787.24, "end": 794.12, "text": "it's $600 billion total. And they're giving the clients maybe 1%, and they're putting it in", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 787.24, "end": 787.36, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 787.36, "end": 787.64, "word": " $600", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 787.64, "end": 787.96, "word": " billion", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 787.96, "end": 788.26, "word": " total.", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 788.86, "end": 789.34, "word": " And", "probability": 0.97607421875 }, { "start": 789.34, "end": 789.8, "word": " they're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 789.8, "end": 790.94, "word": " giving", "probability": 0.9697265625 }, { "start": 790.94, "end": 791.16, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 791.16, "end": 791.74, "word": " clients", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 791.74, "end": 791.98, "word": " maybe", "probability": 0.98681640625 }, { "start": 791.98, "end": 792.52, "word": " 1%,", "probability": 0.7000732421875 }, { "start": 792.52, "end": 792.9, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 792.9, "end": 793.3, "word": " they're", "probability": 0.984130859375 }, { "start": 793.3, "end": 793.9, "word": " putting", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 793.9, "end": 794.04, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 794.04, "end": 794.12, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 794.12, "end": 795.8, "text": "treasuries and getting 4 % to 5%.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 794.12, "end": 794.52, "word": " treasuries", "probability": 0.95458984375 }, { "start": 794.52, "end": 794.66, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 794.66, "end": 794.76, "word": " getting", "probability": 0.87890625 }, { "start": 794.76, "end": 795.04, "word": " 4", "probability": 0.59521484375 }, { "start": 795.04, "end": 795.12, "word": "%", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 795.12, "end": 795.16, "word": " to", "probability": 0.6865234375 }, { "start": 795.16, "end": 795.8, "word": " 5%.", "probability": 0.997802734375 } ] }, { "start": 795.8, "end": 802.28, "text": "Who? I've been hearing more and more. And of course, news just rolled out. So this is just", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 795.8, "end": 796.28, "word": " Who?", "probability": 0.70263671875 }, { "start": 796.58, "end": 797.14, "word": " I've", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 797.14, "end": 797.28, "word": " been", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 797.28, "end": 797.58, "word": " hearing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 797.58, "end": 797.96, "word": " more", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 797.96, "end": 798.06, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 798.06, "end": 798.4, "word": " more.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 798.66, "end": 798.92, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 798.92, "end": 799.06, "word": " of", "probability": 0.861328125 }, { "start": 799.06, "end": 799.32, "word": " course,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 800.06, "end": 800.5, "word": " news", "probability": 0.66650390625 }, { "start": 800.5, "end": 800.78, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 800.78, "end": 801.06, "word": " rolled", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 801.06, "end": 801.34, "word": " out.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 801.48, "end": 801.52, "word": " So", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 801.52, "end": 801.68, "word": " this", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 801.68, "end": 801.84, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 801.84, "end": 802.28, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 802.28, "end": 807.8, "text": "the beginning of us sort of understanding what a sort of AI assisted, you know, search will", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 802.28, "end": 802.56, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 802.56, "end": 802.94, "word": " beginning", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 802.94, "end": 803.32, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 803.32, "end": 803.52, "word": " us", "probability": 0.84765625 }, { "start": 803.52, "end": 803.68, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.94384765625 }, { "start": 803.68, "end": 803.78, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 803.78, "end": 804.42, "word": " understanding", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 804.42, "end": 804.74, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 804.74, "end": 804.86, "word": " a", "probability": 0.9755859375 }, { "start": 804.86, "end": 805.0, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 805.0, "end": 805.1, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 805.1, "end": 805.48, "word": " AI", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 805.48, "end": 806.16, "word": " assisted,", "probability": 0.595703125 }, { "start": 806.2, "end": 807.06, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 807.06, "end": 807.12, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 807.26, "end": 807.5, "word": " search", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 807.5, "end": 807.8, "word": " will", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 807.8, "end": 814.8, "text": "look like and what that means. Who benefits from that or what companies benefit from that?", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 807.8, "end": 808.18, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 808.18, "end": 808.38, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 808.38, "end": 808.5, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 808.5, "end": 808.64, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 808.64, "end": 808.84, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 808.84, "end": 809.2, "word": " means.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 809.92, "end": 810.48, "word": " Who", "probability": 0.98876953125 }, { "start": 810.48, "end": 811.96, "word": " benefits", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 811.96, "end": 812.28, "word": " from", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 812.28, "end": 812.56, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 812.56, "end": 813.04, "word": " or", "probability": 0.62548828125 }, { "start": 813.04, "end": 813.42, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 813.42, "end": 813.94, "word": " companies", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 813.94, "end": 814.36, "word": " benefit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 814.36, "end": 814.6, "word": " from", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 814.6, "end": 814.8, "word": " that?", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 814.8, "end": 818.96, "text": "Well, first of all, let's talk about just for a second. Let's talk about Mr. Zuckerberg.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 814.8, "end": 815.26, "word": " Well,", "probability": 0.962890625 }, { "start": 815.34, "end": 815.48, "word": " first", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 815.48, "end": 815.64, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 815.64, "end": 815.78, "word": " all,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 815.94, "end": 816.32, "word": " let's", "probability": 0.96435546875 }, { "start": 816.32, "end": 816.72, "word": " talk", "probability": 0.88916015625 }, { "start": 816.72, "end": 816.92, "word": " about", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 816.92, "end": 817.1, "word": " just", "probability": 0.290283203125 }, { "start": 817.1, "end": 817.26, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 817.26, "end": 817.36, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 817.36, "end": 817.56, "word": " second.", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 817.68, "end": 817.74, "word": " Let's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 817.74, "end": 817.88, "word": " talk", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 817.88, "end": 818.06, "word": " about", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 818.06, "end": 818.28, "word": " Mr.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 818.44, "end": 818.96, "word": " Zuckerberg.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 819.1, "end": 825.86, "text": "The guy incinerated $300 billion on the metaverse. He changed the name of the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 819.1, "end": 819.54, "word": " The", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 819.54, "end": 819.76, "word": " guy", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 819.76, "end": 820.68, "word": " incinerated", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 820.68, "end": 821.38, "word": " $300", "probability": 0.983154296875 }, { "start": 821.38, "end": 821.78, "word": " billion", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 821.78, "end": 823.04, "word": " on", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 823.04, "end": 823.22, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 823.22, "end": 824.06, "word": " metaverse.", "probability": 0.776123046875 }, { "start": 824.38, "end": 824.64, "word": " He", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 824.64, "end": 825.14, "word": " changed", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 825.14, "end": 825.32, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 825.32, "end": 825.56, "word": " name", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 825.56, "end": 825.74, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 825.74, "end": 825.86, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 825.86, "end": 832.56, "text": "company to Meta from Facebook. It's hilarious. He incinerated $300 billion. Now, he's", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 825.86, "end": 826.34, "word": " company", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 826.34, "end": 826.62, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 826.62, "end": 827.12, "word": " Meta", "probability": 0.90576171875 }, { "start": 827.12, "end": 827.4, "word": " from", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 827.4, "end": 827.9, "word": " Facebook.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 827.9, "end": 828.34, "word": " It's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 828.34, "end": 828.82, "word": " hilarious.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 829.16, "end": 829.4, "word": " He", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 829.4, "end": 830.28, "word": " incinerated", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 830.28, "end": 830.6, "word": " $300", "probability": 0.876953125 }, { "start": 830.6, "end": 830.9, "word": " billion.", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 831.22, "end": 831.74, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 831.74, "end": 832.56, "word": " he's", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 832.56, "end": 837.02, "text": "created a product. 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Instagram, Facebook, nobody can compete with them. 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Apple's going to have one. There's going to be 40 of these things. 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So imagine burning the cash. 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It's just, you know, so that's -", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 879.2, "end": 879.4, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 879.4, "end": 879.58, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 879.58, "end": 879.88, "word": " giving", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 879.88, "end": 880.42, "word": " away,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 880.62, "end": 881.18, "word": " which", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 881.18, "end": 881.36, "word": " has", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 881.36, "end": 881.66, "word": " no", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 881.66, "end": 882.12, "word": " barriers", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 882.12, "end": 882.4, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 882.4, "end": 882.82, "word": " entry.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 883.48, "end": 883.76, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.7408447265625 }, { "start": 883.76, "end": 883.9, "word": " just,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 884.38, "end": 884.48, "word": " you", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 884.48, "end": 884.58, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 884.66, "end": 884.84, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 884.84, "end": 885.28, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 885.28, "end": 885.46, "word": "-", "probability": 0.454345703125 } ] }, { "start": 885.46, "end": 888.24, "text": "So clearly Meta, not the beneficiary of this.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 885.46, "end": 885.78, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 885.78, "end": 886.18, "word": " clearly", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 886.18, "end": 886.56, "word": " Meta,", "probability": 0.784912109375 }, { "start": 886.62, "end": 886.72, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 886.72, "end": 886.86, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 886.86, "end": 887.56, "word": " beneficiary", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 887.56, "end": 887.96, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 887.96, "end": 888.24, "word": " this.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 888.3, "end": 894.16, "text": "Yeah. So me, let's get to the question. 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What about in financials, though? This is very disruptive, what you were talking", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 939.92, "end": 940.2, "word": " companies.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 940.5, "end": 940.86, "word": " What", "probability": 0.8193359375 }, { "start": 940.86, "end": 941.2, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 941.2, "end": 941.36, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 941.36, "end": 942.0, "word": " financials,", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 942.02, "end": 942.1, "word": " though?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 942.16, "end": 942.32, "word": " This", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 942.32, "end": 942.46, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 942.46, "end": 942.88, "word": " very", "probability": 0.810546875 }, { "start": 942.88, "end": 943.44, "word": " disruptive,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 943.44, "end": 943.66, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 943.66, "end": 943.74, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 943.74, "end": 943.82, "word": " were", "probability": 0.92626953125 }, { "start": 943.82, "end": 944.12, "word": " talking", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 944.12, "end": 949.26, "text": "about, this idea that I understand And if you're commoditizing, giving away AI tools and", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 944.12, "end": 944.42, "word": " about,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 944.54, "end": 944.66, "word": " this", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 944.66, "end": 945.06, "word": " idea", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 945.06, "end": 945.38, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 945.38, "end": 945.6, "word": " I", "probability": 0.90234375 }, { "start": 945.6, "end": 946.08, "word": " understand", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 946.08, "end": 946.54, "word": " And", "probability": 0.6318359375 }, { "start": 946.54, "end": 947.08, "word": " if", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 947.08, "end": 947.22, "word": " you're", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 947.22, "end": 947.9, "word": " commoditizing,", "probability": 0.8889973958333334 }, { "start": 947.98, "end": 948.14, "word": " giving", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 948.14, "end": 948.4, "word": " away", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 948.4, "end": 948.7, "word": " AI", "probability": 0.9873046875 }, { "start": 948.7, "end": 949.08, "word": " tools", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 949.08, "end": 949.26, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 949.26, "end": 953.04, "text": "products, and people are reluctant to pay for them, not the winner of the AI revolution.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 949.26, "end": 949.64, "word": " products,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 949.82, "end": 949.92, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 949.92, "end": 950.3, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 950.3, "end": 950.46, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 950.46, "end": 950.78, "word": " reluctant", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 950.78, "end": 950.94, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 950.94, "end": 951.06, "word": " pay", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 951.06, "end": 951.26, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 951.26, "end": 951.52, "word": " them,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 951.74, "end": 951.94, "word": " not", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 951.94, "end": 952.08, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 952.08, "end": 952.24, "word": " winner", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 952.24, "end": 952.36, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 952.36, "end": 952.42, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 952.42, "end": 952.64, "word": " AI", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 952.64, "end": 953.04, "word": " revolution.", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 953.04, "end": 956.92, "text": "You own the data, own the moat. You're the winner of the AI revolution. But what about the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 953.04, "end": 953.34, "word": " You", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 953.34, "end": 953.52, "word": " own", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 953.52, "end": 953.62, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 953.62, "end": 953.82, "word": " data,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 953.96, "end": 954.06, "word": " own", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 954.06, "end": 954.16, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 954.16, "end": 954.44, "word": " moat.", "probability": 0.965087890625 }, { "start": 954.54, "end": 954.8, "word": " You're", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 954.8, "end": 954.88, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 954.88, "end": 955.04, "word": " winner", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 955.04, "end": 955.18, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 955.18, "end": 955.26, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 955.26, "end": 955.48, "word": " AI", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 955.48, "end": 955.98, "word": " revolution.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 956.1, "end": 956.5, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 956.5, "end": 956.62, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 956.62, "end": 956.78, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 956.78, "end": 956.92, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 956.92, "end": 963.9, "text": "disruption that's coming? If you have that kind of reallocation of", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 956.92, "end": 957.56, "word": " disruption", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 957.56, "end": 957.94, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 957.94, "end": 958.22, "word": " coming?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 958.6, "end": 959.0, "word": " If", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 959.0, "end": 959.36, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 959.36, "end": 960.72, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 960.72, "end": 961.18, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 961.18, "end": 961.48, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 961.48, "end": 961.88, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 961.88, "end": 963.64, "word": " reallocation", "probability": 0.9996744791666666 }, { "start": 963.64, "end": 963.9, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 963.9, "end": 968.2, "text": "savings, you're talking about a bank run. And you're saying five years. 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Let's talk about this macro regime a little bit because I think it's", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1090.44, "end": 1090.88, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1090.88, "end": 1091.14, "word": " playing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1091.14, "end": 1091.38, "word": " out.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1091.56, "end": 1091.82, "word": " Let's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1091.82, "end": 1092.04, "word": " talk", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1092.04, "end": 1092.26, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1092.26, "end": 1092.44, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1092.44, "end": 1092.78, "word": " macro", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1092.78, "end": 1093.22, "word": " regime", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1093.22, "end": 1093.38, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1093.38, "end": 1093.48, "word": " little", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1093.48, "end": 1093.78, "word": " bit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1093.78, "end": 1094.24, "word": " because", "probability": 0.495361328125 }, { "start": 1094.24, "end": 1094.38, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1094.38, "end": 1094.5, "word": " think", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1094.5, "end": 1094.66, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1094.66, "end": 1095.24, "text": "really important.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1094.66, "end": 1094.82, "word": " really", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1094.82, "end": 1095.24, "word": " important.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1097.46, "end": 1102.44, "text": "What tells you that we are in a situation that's like maybe the 1980s where you have this", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1097.46, "end": 1097.98, "word": " What", "probability": 0.93505859375 }, { "start": 1097.98, "end": 1098.7, "word": " tells", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1098.7, "end": 1098.9, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1098.9, "end": 1099.06, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1099.06, "end": 1099.22, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1099.22, "end": 1099.38, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1099.38, "end": 1099.52, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1099.52, "end": 1099.6, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1099.6, "end": 1100.02, "word": " situation", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1100.02, "end": 1100.4, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1100.4, "end": 1100.62, "word": " like", "probability": 0.96875 }, { "start": 1100.62, "end": 1100.92, "word": " maybe", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1100.92, "end": 1101.08, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1101.08, "end": 1101.84, "word": " 1980s", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1101.84, "end": 1101.98, "word": " where", "probability": 0.92626953125 }, { "start": 1101.98, "end": 1102.08, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1102.08, "end": 1102.26, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1102.26, "end": 1102.44, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 1102.44, "end": 1108.88, "text": "supernova economy and then you're going to see some sort of recession or", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1102.44, "end": 1102.98, "word": " supernova", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1102.98, "end": 1103.6, "word": " economy", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1103.6, "end": 1104.3, "word": " and", "probability": 0.806640625 }, { "start": 1104.3, "end": 1104.58, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1104.58, "end": 1105.4, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1105.4, "end": 1105.46, "word": " going", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 1105.46, "end": 1105.54, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1105.54, "end": 1105.74, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1105.74, "end": 1105.96, "word": " some", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1105.96, "end": 1106.12, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 1106.12, "end": 1106.32, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1106.32, "end": 1108.16, "word": " recession", "probability": 0.94775390625 }, { "start": 1108.16, "end": 1108.88, "word": " or", "probability": 0.9873046875 } ] }, { "start": 1108.88, "end": 1114.16, "text": "you're going to see a correction and then you're going to have policymakers step in. Why?", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1108.88, "end": 1109.48, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1109.48, "end": 1109.56, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9150390625 }, { "start": 1109.56, "end": 1109.64, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1109.64, "end": 1109.88, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1109.88, "end": 1110.28, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1110.28, "end": 1110.9, "word": " correction", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1110.9, "end": 1111.4, "word": " and", "probability": 0.5537109375 }, { "start": 1111.4, "end": 1111.52, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1111.52, "end": 1111.66, "word": " you're", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1111.66, "end": 1111.72, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1111.72, "end": 1111.78, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1111.78, "end": 1111.98, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1111.98, "end": 1112.46, "word": " policymakers", "probability": 0.94580078125 }, { "start": 1112.46, "end": 1112.96, "word": " step", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1112.96, "end": 1113.3, "word": " in.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1113.96, "end": 1114.16, "word": " Why?", "probability": 0.7646484375 } ] }, { "start": 1114.86, "end": 1117.34, "text": "Is that how you see it? Correct me if I'm wrong.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1114.86, "end": 1115.26, "word": " Is", "probability": 0.94921875 }, { "start": 1115.26, "end": 1115.82, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9873046875 }, { "start": 1115.82, "end": 1115.98, "word": " how", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1115.98, "end": 1116.16, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1116.16, "end": 1116.36, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1116.36, "end": 1116.56, "word": " it?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1116.7, "end": 1116.8, "word": " Correct", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1116.8, "end": 1116.94, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1116.94, "end": 1117.08, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1117.08, "end": 1117.14, "word": " I'm", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1117.14, "end": 1117.34, "word": " wrong.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 1117.64, "end": 1124.46, "text": "Yeah. Well, never forget the rule of 72. 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It kind of feels like getting through the day", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1435.6, "end": 1436.0, "word": " I", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 1436.0, "end": 1436.14, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1436.14, "end": 1436.46, "word": " everybody", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1436.46, "end": 1436.64, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1436.64, "end": 1436.9, "word": " relate", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1436.9, "end": 1437.04, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1437.04, "end": 1437.3, "word": " that.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1437.54, "end": 1437.58, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 1437.58, "end": 1437.66, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 1437.66, "end": 1437.76, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1437.76, "end": 1437.98, "word": " feels", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1437.98, "end": 1438.16, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1438.16, "end": 1438.4, "word": " getting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1438.4, "end": 1438.68, "word": " through", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1438.68, "end": 1438.86, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1438.86, "end": 1439.4, "word": " day", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1439.4, "end": 1443.84, "text": "anymore, Larry, with all the headlines. So let's talk about two things that are on the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1439.4, "end": 1440.16, "word": " anymore,", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 1440.38, "end": 1440.56, "word": " Larry,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1440.66, "end": 1440.74, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1440.74, "end": 1440.84, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1440.84, "end": 1440.92, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1440.92, "end": 1441.26, "word": " headlines.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1441.46, "end": 1441.74, "word": " So", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 1441.74, "end": 1441.96, "word": " let's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1441.96, "end": 1442.16, "word": " talk", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1442.16, "end": 1442.36, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1442.36, "end": 1442.58, "word": " two", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1442.58, "end": 1442.88, "word": " things", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1442.88, "end": 1443.08, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1443.08, "end": 1443.26, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1443.26, "end": 1443.74, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1443.74, "end": 1443.84, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1443.84, "end": 1450.78, "text": "radar I want to get your take on. 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We have the Bundesbank president talking", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1450.78, "end": 1451.22, "word": " bank", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1451.22, "end": 1451.82, "word": " making", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1451.82, "end": 1452.1, "word": " record", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1452.1, "end": 1452.54, "word": " purchases", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1452.54, "end": 1452.76, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1452.76, "end": 1453.04, "word": " gold", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1453.04, "end": 1453.2, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 1453.2, "end": 1453.58, "word": " September.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1453.8, "end": 1453.8, "word": " We", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1453.8, "end": 1453.9, "word": " have", "probability": 0.982421875 }, { "start": 1453.9, "end": 1454.02, "word": " the", "probability": 0.97900390625 }, { "start": 1454.02, "end": 1454.38, "word": " Bundesbank", "probability": 0.98583984375 }, { "start": 1454.38, "end": 1454.76, "word": " president", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1454.76, "end": 1455.16, "word": " talking", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1455.16, "end": 1461.74, "text": "up the case for central banks diversifying into gold sort of out loud in popular media. How", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1455.16, "end": 1455.3, "word": " up", "probability": 0.85107421875 }, { "start": 1455.3, "end": 1455.38, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1455.38, "end": 1455.66, "word": " case", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1455.66, "end": 1456.1, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1456.1, "end": 1456.44, "word": " central", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1456.44, "end": 1456.78, "word": " banks", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1456.78, "end": 1457.46, "word": " diversifying", "probability": 0.9697265625 }, { "start": 1457.46, "end": 1457.66, "word": " into", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1457.66, "end": 1457.92, "word": " gold", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1457.92, "end": 1458.08, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.5947265625 }, { "start": 1458.08, "end": 1458.16, "word": " of", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1458.16, "end": 1458.36, "word": " out", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1458.36, "end": 1458.78, "word": " loud", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1458.78, "end": 1459.32, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1459.32, "end": 1459.72, "word": " popular", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1459.72, "end": 1460.2, "word": " media.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1461.18, "end": 1461.74, "word": " How", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 1461.74, "end": 1467.76, "text": "much does that impact the price of gold? Because as you say, we've had the short term", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1461.74, "end": 1462.24, "word": " much", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1462.24, "end": 1462.64, "word": " does", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1462.64, "end": 1463.46, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1463.46, "end": 1464.3, "word": " impact", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1464.3, "end": 1465.26, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1465.26, "end": 1465.56, "word": " price", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1465.56, "end": 1465.72, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1465.72, "end": 1466.08, "word": " gold?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1466.22, "end": 1466.38, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 1466.38, "end": 1466.62, "word": " as", "probability": 0.93798828125 }, { "start": 1466.62, "end": 1466.72, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1466.72, "end": 1466.88, "word": " say,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1467.0, "end": 1467.08, "word": " we've", "probability": 0.997314453125 }, { "start": 1467.08, "end": 1467.2, "word": " had", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1467.2, "end": 1467.32, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1467.32, "end": 1467.52, "word": " short", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1467.52, "end": 1467.76, "word": " term", "probability": 0.82666015625 } ] }, { "start": 1467.76, "end": 1474.6, "text": "pulling it down. Is it a marginal support? Is this a bigger trend that is going to", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1467.76, "end": 1468.04, "word": " pulling", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 1468.04, "end": 1468.2, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1468.2, "end": 1468.44, "word": " down.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1468.68, "end": 1469.1, "word": " Is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1469.1, "end": 1469.2, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1469.2, "end": 1469.34, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1469.34, "end": 1469.78, "word": " marginal", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1469.78, "end": 1470.38, "word": " support?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1470.38, "end": 1470.94, "word": " Is", "probability": 0.880859375 }, { "start": 1470.94, "end": 1471.18, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1471.18, "end": 1471.48, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1471.48, "end": 1471.96, "word": " bigger", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1471.96, "end": 1473.24, "word": " trend", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1473.24, "end": 1473.74, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1473.74, "end": 1474.28, "word": " is", "probability": 0.93701171875 }, { "start": 1474.28, "end": 1474.48, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1474.48, "end": 1474.6, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1474.6, "end": 1478.52, "text": "look very different than what we've seen in past gold cycles? How are you thinking about", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1474.6, "end": 1474.78, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1474.78, "end": 1474.96, "word": " very", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1474.96, "end": 1475.46, "word": " different", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1475.46, "end": 1475.7, "word": " than", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1475.7, "end": 1475.88, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1475.88, "end": 1476.14, "word": " we've", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1476.14, "end": 1476.38, "word": " seen", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1476.38, "end": 1476.54, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1476.54, "end": 1476.86, "word": " past", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1476.86, "end": 1477.08, "word": " gold", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1477.08, "end": 1477.5, "word": " cycles?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1477.68, "end": 1477.8, "word": " How", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1477.8, "end": 1477.92, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1477.92, "end": 1478.02, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1478.02, "end": 1478.26, "word": " thinking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1478.26, "end": 1478.52, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1478.52, "end": 1479.32, "text": "that relative to gold?", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1478.52, "end": 1478.72, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1478.72, "end": 1478.98, "word": " relative", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1478.98, "end": 1479.14, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1479.14, "end": 1479.32, "word": " gold?", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1479.58, "end": 1485.56, "text": "Well, my favorite word in our first book was hubris, and that was the Lehman management", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1479.58, "end": 1479.96, "word": " Well,", "probability": 0.96826171875 }, { "start": 1480.12, "end": 1480.32, "word": " my", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1480.32, "end": 1480.72, "word": " favorite", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 1480.72, "end": 1481.16, "word": " word", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1481.16, "end": 1481.34, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1481.34, "end": 1481.48, "word": " our", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1481.48, "end": 1481.8, "word": " first", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1481.8, "end": 1482.18, "word": " book", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1482.18, "end": 1482.74, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1482.74, "end": 1483.3, "word": " hubris,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1484.02, "end": 1484.44, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1484.44, "end": 1484.54, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1484.54, "end": 1484.66, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1484.66, "end": 1484.78, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 1484.78, "end": 1485.14, "word": " Lehman", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 1485.14, "end": 1485.56, "word": " management", "probability": 0.83251953125 } ] }, { "start": 1485.56, "end": 1488.82, "text": "team. 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Look at circle equity, right? 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It's up into the 90s. 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Say you have a trucking company in", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1640.36, "end": 1640.66, "word": " means", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1640.66, "end": 1640.98, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1640.98, "end": 1641.24, "word": " they're", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 1641.24, "end": 1641.3, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 1641.3, "end": 1641.4, "word": " to", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1641.4, "end": 1642.06, "word": " force", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1642.06, "end": 1642.68, "word": " international", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1642.68, "end": 1643.38, "word": " investors.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1643.56, "end": 1643.7, "word": " Say", "probability": 0.953125 }, { "start": 1643.7, "end": 1643.86, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 1643.86, "end": 1644.62, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1644.62, "end": 1644.76, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1644.76, "end": 1645.16, "word": " trucking", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1645.16, "end": 1645.5, "word": " company", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1645.5, "end": 1645.64, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1645.64, "end": 1650.24, "text": "Brazil, put your money in the bank, right? 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The", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1687.28, "end": 1687.42, "word": " end", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 1687.42, "end": 1687.5, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1687.5, "end": 1687.58, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1687.58, "end": 1687.78, "word": " yield", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1687.78, "end": 1688.18, "word": " curve,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1688.28, "end": 1688.64, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1688.64, "end": 1688.84, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1688.84, "end": 1688.94, "word": " how", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1688.94, "end": 1689.08, "word": " they", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1689.08, "end": 1689.22, "word": " can", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 1689.22, "end": 1689.9, "word": " finance", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1689.9, "end": 1690.64, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 1690.64, "end": 1691.56, "word": " $40", "probability": 0.98193359375 }, { "start": 1691.56, "end": 1692.44, "word": " trillion", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 1692.44, "end": 1693.08, "word": " debt", "probability": 0.970703125 }, { "start": 1693.08, "end": 1693.34, "word": " hole.", "probability": 0.9697265625 }, { "start": 1693.46, "end": 1693.56, "word": " The", "probability": 0.998046875 } ] }, { "start": 1693.56, "end": 1699.68, "text": "only way out, Maggie, of a $40 trillion debt hole, there's two ways. 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And that's what we call financial repression. 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When you say they, they are going to force everyone into", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1718.76, "end": 1719.32, "word": " First", "probability": 0.66162109375 }, { "start": 1719.32, "end": 1719.92, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1719.92, "end": 1720.12, "word": " all,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1720.3, "end": 1720.8, "word": " who", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1720.8, "end": 1720.98, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1720.98, "end": 1721.3, "word": " they?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1721.46, "end": 1721.54, "word": " When", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1721.54, "end": 1721.66, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1721.66, "end": 1721.9, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1721.9, "end": 1722.42, "word": " they,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1722.7, "end": 1723.22, "word": " they", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1723.22, "end": 1723.58, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1723.58, "end": 1723.88, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1723.88, "end": 1724.16, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1724.16, "end": 1724.72, "word": " force", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1724.72, "end": 1725.12, "word": " everyone", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1725.12, "end": 1725.44, "word": " into", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 1725.44, "end": 1727.12, "text": "stablecoin. Who are they?", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1725.44, "end": 1726.16, "word": " stablecoin.", "probability": 0.841796875 }, { "start": 1726.38, "end": 1726.7, "word": " Who", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1726.7, "end": 1726.88, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1726.88, "end": 1727.12, "word": " they?", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1727.52, "end": 1733.06, "text": "Well, let's be clear. This is not Republican or Democrat. 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Imagine trying to finance World War II. 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They're going to come up with all these types of speed bumps along the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1971.04, "end": 1971.44, "word": " currency", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1971.44, "end": 1971.84, "word": " status.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1972.06, "end": 1972.5, "word": " They're", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1972.5, "end": 1972.58, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1972.58, "end": 1972.7, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1972.7, "end": 1972.94, "word": " come", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1972.94, "end": 1973.1, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1973.1, "end": 1973.26, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1973.26, "end": 1973.76, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1973.76, "end": 1973.96, "word": " these", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1973.96, "end": 1974.16, "word": " types", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1974.16, "end": 1974.36, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1974.36, "end": 1974.66, "word": " speed", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1974.66, "end": 1974.94, "word": " bumps", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1974.94, "end": 1975.22, "word": " along", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1975.22, "end": 1975.36, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1975.36, "end": 1975.56, "text": "way.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1975.36, "end": 1975.56, "word": " way.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1975.56, "end": 1982.4, "text": "So why does that mean that hard assets", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1975.56, "end": 1976.7, "word": " So", "probability": 0.8603515625 }, { "start": 1976.7, "end": 1977.2, "word": " why", "probability": 0.9736328125 }, { "start": 1977.2, "end": 1977.46, "word": " does", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1977.46, "end": 1977.96, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1977.96, "end": 1979.22, "word": " mean", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1979.22, "end": 1979.86, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1979.86, "end": 1981.84, "word": " hard", "probability": 0.2454833984375 }, { "start": 1981.84, "end": 1982.4, "word": " assets", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1982.4, "end": 1987.42, "text": "are the trade as opposed to equities? If you're sort of pulling rates down, you're", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1982.4, "end": 1982.66, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1982.66, "end": 1982.8, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1982.8, "end": 1983.18, "word": " trade", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1983.18, "end": 1983.48, "word": " as", "probability": 0.96337890625 }, { "start": 1983.48, "end": 1983.74, "word": " opposed", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1983.74, "end": 1983.94, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1983.94, "end": 1984.36, "word": " equities?", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1984.36, "end": 1984.74, "word": " If", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1984.74, "end": 1984.9, "word": " you're", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 1984.9, "end": 1985.1, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.8671875 }, { "start": 1985.1, "end": 1985.26, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1985.26, "end": 1985.84, "word": " pulling", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1985.84, "end": 1986.2, "word": " rates", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1986.2, "end": 1986.68, "word": " down,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1986.68, "end": 1987.42, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1987.42, "end": 1992.32, "text": "basically creating all this liquidity to keep the whole thing going. Does that just not", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1987.42, "end": 1988.08, "word": " basically", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1988.08, "end": 1988.78, "word": " creating", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1988.78, "end": 1989.06, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1989.06, "end": 1989.32, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1989.32, "end": 1989.76, "word": " liquidity", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1989.76, "end": 1990.08, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1990.08, "end": 1990.32, "word": " keep", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1990.32, "end": 1990.48, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1990.48, "end": 1990.66, "word": " whole", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1990.66, "end": 1990.9, "word": " thing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1990.9, "end": 1991.24, "word": " going.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1991.24, "end": 1991.62, "word": " Does", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1991.62, "end": 1991.82, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1991.82, "end": 1992.04, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1992.04, "end": 1992.32, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1992.32, "end": 1996.98, "text": "magnet toward equities? Because that's kind of what happens usually when we see rates", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1992.32, "end": 1992.78, "word": " magnet", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1992.78, "end": 1993.12, "word": " toward", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1993.12, "end": 1993.6, "word": " equities?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1993.76, "end": 1993.9, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1993.9, "end": 1994.22, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1994.22, "end": 1994.42, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1994.42, "end": 1994.58, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1994.58, "end": 1994.74, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1994.74, "end": 1995.24, "word": " happens", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1995.24, "end": 1995.76, "word": " usually", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 1995.76, "end": 1996.38, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1996.38, "end": 1996.52, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1996.52, "end": 1996.7, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1996.7, "end": 1996.98, "word": " rates", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1996.98, "end": 2000.84, "text": "lower. It's certainly what equity people think now. I see people in chats all the time", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 1996.98, "end": 1997.22, "word": " lower.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1997.22, "end": 1997.56, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.976806640625 }, { "start": 1997.56, "end": 1997.82, "word": " certainly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1997.82, "end": 1998.04, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1998.04, "end": 1998.32, "word": " equity", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1998.32, "end": 1998.64, "word": " people", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1998.64, "end": 1998.86, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1998.86, "end": 1999.12, "word": " now.", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 1999.26, "end": 1999.3, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1999.3, "end": 1999.46, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1999.46, "end": 1999.76, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1999.76, "end": 1999.94, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1999.94, "end": 2000.24, "word": " chats", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2000.24, "end": 2000.44, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2000.44, "end": 2000.58, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2000.58, "end": 2000.84, "word": " time", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2000.84, "end": 2005.42, "text": "saying Fed's eventually going to have to ease. That's just going to be rocket fuel for the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2000.84, "end": 2001.2, "word": " saying", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2001.2, "end": 2001.96, "word": " Fed's", "probability": 0.750244140625 }, { "start": 2001.96, "end": 2002.32, "word": " eventually", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2002.32, "end": 2002.52, "word": " going", "probability": 0.97607421875 }, { "start": 2002.52, "end": 2002.6, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2002.6, "end": 2002.78, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2002.78, "end": 2002.92, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2002.92, "end": 2003.36, "word": " ease.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2003.58, "end": 2004.0, "word": " That's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2004.0, "end": 2004.16, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2004.16, "end": 2004.3, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2004.3, "end": 2004.36, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2004.36, "end": 2004.48, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2004.48, "end": 2004.8, "word": " rocket", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2004.8, "end": 2005.12, "word": " fuel", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2005.12, "end": 2005.32, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2005.32, "end": 2005.42, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2005.42, "end": 2005.96, "text": "NASDAQ.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2005.42, "end": 2005.96, "word": " NASDAQ.", "probability": 0.8723958333333334 } ] }, { "start": 2006.36, "end": 2010.54, "text": "Right. But I'm talking about equity. So I'm talking about companies that control hard", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2006.36, "end": 2006.5, "word": " Right.", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 2006.82, "end": 2007.06, "word": " But", "probability": 0.80517578125 }, { "start": 2007.06, "end": 2007.8, "word": " I'm", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2007.8, "end": 2008.02, "word": " talking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2008.02, "end": 2008.24, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2008.24, "end": 2008.52, "word": " equity.", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 2008.64, "end": 2008.72, "word": " So", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 2008.72, "end": 2008.82, "word": " I'm", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 2008.82, "end": 2009.0, "word": " talking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2009.0, "end": 2009.2, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2009.2, "end": 2009.64, "word": " companies", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2009.64, "end": 2009.8, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2009.8, "end": 2010.22, "word": " control", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2010.22, "end": 2010.54, "word": " hard", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2010.54, "end": 2014.14, "text": "assets versus companies that control, say, software. So", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2010.54, "end": 2011.04, "word": " assets", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2011.04, "end": 2011.68, "word": " versus", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2011.68, "end": 2012.18, "word": " companies", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2012.18, "end": 2012.38, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2012.38, "end": 2012.74, "word": " control,", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2012.74, "end": 2012.98, "word": " say,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2013.1, "end": 2013.46, "word": " software.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2013.82, "end": 2014.14, "word": " So", "probability": 0.9658203125 } ] }, { "start": 2014.14, "end": 2017.72, "text": "you're being discerning about where that money is going to go to. There are going to be", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2014.14, "end": 2014.34, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2014.34, "end": 2014.48, "word": " being", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2014.48, "end": 2014.98, "word": " discerning", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2014.98, "end": 2015.24, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2015.24, "end": 2015.58, "word": " where", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2015.58, "end": 2016.0, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2016.0, "end": 2016.38, "word": " money", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2016.38, "end": 2016.5, "word": " is", "probability": 0.7548828125 }, { "start": 2016.5, "end": 2016.66, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2016.66, "end": 2016.8, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2016.8, "end": 2017.0, "word": " go", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2017.0, "end": 2017.2, "word": " to.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2017.34, "end": 2017.38, "word": " There", "probability": 0.7744140625 }, { "start": 2017.38, "end": 2017.48, "word": " are", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2017.48, "end": 2017.52, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2017.52, "end": 2017.58, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2017.58, "end": 2017.72, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2017.72, "end": 2019.76, "text": "better winners. There are going to be winners out of this.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2017.72, "end": 2018.0, "word": " better", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2018.0, "end": 2018.4, "word": " winners.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2018.54, "end": 2018.6, "word": " There", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 2018.6, "end": 2018.7, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2018.7, "end": 2018.74, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2018.74, "end": 2018.78, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2018.78, "end": 2018.88, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2018.88, "end": 2019.14, "word": " winners", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2019.14, "end": 2019.4, "word": " out", "probability": 0.97119140625 }, { "start": 2019.4, "end": 2019.56, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2019.56, "end": 2019.76, "word": " this.", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 2020.0, "end": 2024.86, "text": "So there's a scene in our book where we talk about discounted cash flows. 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But we have a lot more debt than our government assets. We have a lot of wealth", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2160.84, "end": 2161.46, "word": " gold.", "probability": 0.96484375 }, { "start": 2162.36, "end": 2162.88, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2162.88, "end": 2163.02, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2163.02, "end": 2163.14, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2163.14, "end": 2163.26, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2163.26, "end": 2163.94, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2163.94, "end": 2164.14, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2164.14, "end": 2164.4, "word": " debt", "probability": 0.98583984375 }, { "start": 2164.4, "end": 2164.58, "word": " than", "probability": 0.97021484375 }, { "start": 2164.58, "end": 2164.84, "word": " our", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2164.84, "end": 2166.12, "word": " government", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2166.12, "end": 2166.54, "word": " assets.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2166.54, "end": 2167.02, "word": " We", "probability": 0.888671875 }, { "start": 2167.02, "end": 2167.14, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2167.14, "end": 2167.22, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2167.22, "end": 2167.32, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2167.32, "end": 2167.44, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2167.44, "end": 2167.82, "word": " wealth", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2167.82, "end": 2173.34, "text": "on that balance sheet too, which they can tax, right? But the government assets relative to", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2167.82, "end": 2168.72, "word": " on", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2168.72, "end": 2168.86, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2168.86, "end": 2169.18, "word": " balance", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 2169.18, "end": 2169.4, "word": " sheet", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2169.4, "end": 2169.6, "word": " too,", "probability": 0.66015625 }, { "start": 2169.74, "end": 2169.84, "word": " which", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2169.84, "end": 2169.96, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2169.96, "end": 2170.1, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2170.1, "end": 2170.54, "word": " tax,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2170.68, "end": 2170.8, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.93017578125 }, { "start": 2171.24, "end": 2171.54, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2171.54, "end": 2171.88, "word": " the", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2171.88, "end": 2172.24, "word": " government", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2172.24, "end": 2172.68, "word": " assets", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2172.68, "end": 2173.02, "word": " relative", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2173.02, "end": 2173.34, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2173.34, "end": 2177.02, "text": "the debt is actually pretty crazy small. One of the things they could do, and this is what", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2173.34, "end": 2173.44, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2173.44, "end": 2173.62, "word": " debt", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2173.62, "end": 2173.78, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2173.78, "end": 2174.04, "word": " actually", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2174.04, "end": 2174.34, "word": " pretty", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2174.34, "end": 2174.66, "word": " crazy", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2174.66, "end": 2175.0, "word": " small.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2175.38, "end": 2175.52, "word": " One", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2175.52, "end": 2175.62, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2175.62, "end": 2175.68, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2175.68, "end": 2175.8, "word": " things", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2175.8, "end": 2175.92, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2175.92, "end": 2176.1, "word": " could", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2176.1, "end": 2176.42, "word": " do,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2176.54, "end": 2176.64, "word": " and", "probability": 0.90966796875 }, { "start": 2176.64, "end": 2176.74, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2176.74, "end": 2176.84, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2176.84, "end": 2177.02, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2177.02, "end": 2183.34, "text": "an empire in decline would do, is they wouldn't reprice the gold, maybe put it up as", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2177.02, "end": 2177.68, "word": " an", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2177.68, "end": 2177.96, "word": " empire", "probability": 0.98828125 }, { "start": 2177.96, "end": 2178.12, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 2178.12, "end": 2178.36, "word": " decline", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2178.36, "end": 2178.54, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2178.54, "end": 2178.68, "word": " do,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2178.8, "end": 2178.82, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2178.82, "end": 2178.92, "word": " they", "probability": 0.86962890625 }, { "start": 2178.92, "end": 2179.76, "word": " wouldn't", "probability": 0.6591796875 }, { "start": 2179.76, "end": 2180.6, "word": " reprice", "probability": 0.955078125 }, { "start": 2180.6, "end": 2180.74, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2180.74, "end": 2181.12, "word": " gold,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2181.4, "end": 2181.82, "word": " maybe", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2181.82, "end": 2182.14, "word": " put", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2182.14, "end": 2182.26, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2182.26, "end": 2182.48, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2182.48, "end": 2183.34, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2183.34, "end": 2188.88, "text": "collateral and use it as a mechanism to support the treasury market with that collateral", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2183.34, "end": 2183.84, "word": " collateral", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2183.84, "end": 2184.36, "word": " and", "probability": 0.802734375 }, { "start": 2184.36, "end": 2184.84, "word": " use", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2184.84, "end": 2184.96, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2184.96, "end": 2185.08, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2185.08, "end": 2185.18, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2185.18, "end": 2185.56, "word": " mechanism", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2185.56, "end": 2185.88, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2185.88, "end": 2186.6, "word": " support", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2186.6, "end": 2186.8, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2186.8, "end": 2187.1, "word": " treasury", "probability": 0.8349609375 }, { "start": 2187.1, "end": 2187.5, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2187.5, "end": 2187.7, "word": " with", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2187.7, "end": 2187.92, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2187.92, "end": 2188.88, "word": " collateral", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2188.88, "end": 2193.5, "text": "somewhere. Yeah, there's a lot of tricks they can pull. We call it the sense bag of tricks,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2188.88, "end": 2189.28, "word": " somewhere.", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2189.84, "end": 2190.08, "word": " Yeah,", "probability": 0.83154296875 }, { "start": 2190.2, "end": 2190.6, "word": " there's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2190.6, "end": 2190.68, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2190.68, "end": 2190.82, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2190.82, "end": 2190.94, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2190.94, "end": 2191.2, "word": " tricks", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2191.2, "end": 2191.4, "word": " they", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2191.4, "end": 2191.56, "word": " can", "probability": 0.98876953125 }, { "start": 2191.56, "end": 2191.82, "word": " pull.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2191.94, "end": 2192.08, "word": " We", "probability": 0.9697265625 }, { "start": 2192.08, "end": 2192.3, "word": " call", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2192.3, "end": 2192.4, "word": " it", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 2192.4, "end": 2192.6, "word": " the", "probability": 0.73046875 }, { "start": 2192.6, "end": 2192.8, "word": " sense", "probability": 0.716796875 }, { "start": 2192.8, "end": 2193.06, "word": " bag", "probability": 0.92578125 }, { "start": 2193.06, "end": 2193.26, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 2193.26, "end": 2193.5, "word": " tricks,", "probability": 0.99658203125 } ] }, { "start": 2193.68, "end": 2199.84, "text": "right? We sat down with the next Treasury official at one of our dinners in recent weeks,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2193.68, "end": 2193.82, "word": " right?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2193.82, "end": 2194.28, "word": " We", "probability": 0.82177734375 }, { "start": 2194.28, "end": 2194.5, "word": " sat", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2194.5, "end": 2194.7, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2194.7, "end": 2194.86, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2194.86, "end": 2194.96, "word": " the", "probability": 0.720703125 }, { "start": 2194.96, "end": 2195.22, "word": " next", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2195.22, "end": 2196.14, "word": " Treasury", "probability": 0.865234375 }, { "start": 2196.14, "end": 2196.62, "word": " official", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2196.62, "end": 2197.24, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2197.24, "end": 2197.4, "word": " one", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2197.4, "end": 2197.5, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2197.5, "end": 2197.62, "word": " our", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2197.62, "end": 2197.98, "word": " dinners", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2197.98, "end": 2198.44, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2198.44, "end": 2198.76, "word": " recent", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2198.76, "end": 2199.84, "word": " weeks,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2199.88, "end": 2205.9, "text": "and he was pretty confident that dissent has a number of weapons. Just think of this whole", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2199.88, "end": 2200.12, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2200.12, "end": 2200.94, "word": " he", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2200.94, "end": 2201.1, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2201.1, "end": 2201.3, "word": " pretty", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2201.3, "end": 2201.84, "word": " confident", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2201.84, "end": 2202.18, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2202.18, "end": 2202.76, "word": " dissent", "probability": 0.552581787109375 }, { "start": 2202.76, "end": 2203.1, "word": " has", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2203.1, "end": 2203.52, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2203.52, "end": 2203.76, "word": " number", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2203.76, "end": 2203.96, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2203.96, "end": 2204.4, "word": " weapons.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2204.78, "end": 2205.22, "word": " Just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2205.22, "end": 2205.44, "word": " think", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2205.44, "end": 2205.56, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2205.56, "end": 2205.7, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2205.7, "end": 2205.9, "word": " whole", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2205.9, "end": 2209.94, "text": "debt ceiling thing, right? We're going to hit the debt ceiling in January. We're going to", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2205.9, "end": 2206.16, "word": " debt", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2206.16, "end": 2206.54, "word": " ceiling", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2206.54, "end": 2206.8, "word": " thing,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2206.9, "end": 2207.02, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2207.16, "end": 2207.52, "word": " We're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2207.52, "end": 2207.56, "word": " going", "probability": 0.98779296875 }, { "start": 2207.56, "end": 2207.64, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2207.64, "end": 2207.72, "word": " hit", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2207.72, "end": 2207.86, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2207.86, "end": 2208.06, "word": " debt", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2208.06, "end": 2208.38, "word": " ceiling", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2208.38, "end": 2208.66, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2208.66, "end": 2209.12, "word": " January.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2209.4, "end": 2209.84, "word": " We're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2209.84, "end": 2209.88, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2209.88, "end": 2209.94, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2209.94, "end": 2214.52, "text": "have a split Congress, right? 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Whenever you have that split government, maybe you go into what would hit", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2214.52, "end": 2214.64, "word": " the", "probability": 0.98291015625 }, { "start": 2214.64, "end": 2215.08, "word": " Democrats.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2215.46, "end": 2215.9, "word": " Whenever", "probability": 0.94775390625 }, { "start": 2215.9, "end": 2216.1, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2216.1, "end": 2216.36, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2216.36, "end": 2216.66, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2216.66, "end": 2217.6, "word": " split", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 2217.6, "end": 2217.86, "word": " government,", "probability": 0.9765625 }, { "start": 2218.06, "end": 2218.46, "word": " maybe", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2218.46, "end": 2218.88, "word": " you", "probability": 0.64794921875 }, { "start": 2218.88, "end": 2218.98, "word": " go", "probability": 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And we'll go through and sort of, you know, go over some", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2280.82, "end": 2281.16, "word": " things", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2281.16, "end": 2281.34, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2281.34, "end": 2281.48, "word": " you're", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2281.48, "end": 2281.8, "word": " talking", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2281.8, "end": 2282.1, "word": " about?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2282.24, "end": 2282.3, "word": " And", "probability": 0.8955078125 }, { "start": 2282.3, "end": 2282.46, "word": " we'll", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 2282.46, "end": 2282.68, "word": " go", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2282.68, "end": 2282.98, "word": " through", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2282.98, "end": 2283.36, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2283.36, "end": 2283.76, "word": " sort", "probability": 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And that's why you get this amazing January effect with the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2326.8, "end": 2326.94, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2326.94, "end": 2327.2, "word": " buy", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2327.2, "end": 2327.32, "word": " it", "probability": 0.57958984375 }, { "start": 2327.32, "end": 2327.52, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2327.52, "end": 2327.7, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2327.7, "end": 2328.14, "word": " 31", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2328.14, "end": 2328.62, "word": " days.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2328.62, "end": 2329.32, "word": " And", "probability": 0.8564453125 }, { "start": 2329.32, "end": 2329.56, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 2329.56, "end": 2329.7, "word": " why", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2329.7, "end": 2329.82, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2329.82, "end": 2329.98, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2329.98, "end": 2330.22, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2330.22, "end": 2330.98, "word": " amazing", "probability": 0.94580078125 }, { "start": 2330.98, "end": 2331.42, "word": " January", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2331.42, "end": 2331.82, "word": " effect", "probability": 0.97265625 }, { "start": 2331.82, "end": 2332.02, "word": " with", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2332.02, "end": 2332.18, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99755859375 } ] }, { "start": 2332.18, "end": 2339.02, "text": "losers. 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Dogs on sale. I think we want to pay attention to that.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2344.58, "end": 2344.94, "word": " Wow.", "probability": 0.90185546875 }, { "start": 2345.1, "end": 2345.34, "word": " Dogs", "probability": 0.73583984375 }, { "start": 2345.34, "end": 2345.56, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2345.56, "end": 2345.9, "word": " sale.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2346.26, "end": 2346.78, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2346.78, "end": 2347.06, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2347.06, "end": 2347.16, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2347.16, "end": 2347.28, "word": " want", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2347.28, "end": 2347.36, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2347.36, "end": 2347.48, "word": " pay", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2347.48, "end": 2347.8, "word": " attention", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2347.8, "end": 2348.0, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2348.0, "end": 2348.16, "word": " that.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2348.58, "end": 2349.62, "text": "Dogs on sale.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2348.58, "end": 2348.68, "word": " Dogs", "probability": 0.9765625 }, { "start": 2348.68, "end": 2349.16, "word": " on", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2349.16, "end": 2349.62, "word": " sale.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2350.12, "end": 2357.1, "text": "So just to circle back, you were talking about Apple before. And you sounded negative,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2350.12, "end": 2350.64, "word": " So", "probability": 0.716796875 }, { "start": 2350.64, "end": 2352.84, "word": " just", "probability": 0.52978515625 }, { "start": 2352.84, "end": 2353.04, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2353.04, "end": 2353.3, "word": " circle", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2353.3, "end": 2353.56, "word": " back,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2353.7, "end": 2353.82, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2353.82, "end": 2353.92, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2353.92, "end": 2354.16, "word": " talking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2354.16, "end": 2354.38, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2354.38, "end": 2354.78, "word": " Apple", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2354.78, "end": 2355.24, "word": " before.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2355.24, "end": 2355.54, "word": " And", "probability": 0.529296875 }, { "start": 2355.54, "end": 2356.32, "word": " you", "probability": 0.8310546875 }, { "start": 2356.32, "end": 2356.64, "word": " sounded", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2356.64, "end": 2357.1, "word": " negative,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2357.14, "end": 2360.92, "text": "and yet you sounded interested in Apple's bonds with the idea that bond yields were going", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2357.14, "end": 2357.28, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2357.28, "end": 2357.4, "word": " yet", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2357.4, "end": 2357.52, "word": " you", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2357.52, "end": 2357.78, "word": " sounded", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2357.78, "end": 2358.2, "word": " interested", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2358.2, "end": 2358.42, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2358.42, "end": 2358.82, "word": " Apple's", "probability": 0.998291015625 }, { "start": 2358.82, "end": 2359.32, "word": " bonds", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2359.32, "end": 2359.54, "word": " with", "probability": 0.9169921875 }, { "start": 2359.54, "end": 2359.64, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2359.64, "end": 2359.84, "word": " idea", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2359.84, "end": 2360.04, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2360.04, "end": 2360.32, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2360.32, "end": 2360.6, "word": " yields", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2360.6, "end": 2360.82, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2360.82, "end": 2360.92, "word": " going", "probability": 0.98681640625 } ] }, { "start": 2360.92, "end": 2366.0, "text": "to go down. So did I understand that correctly? 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They haven't had new products. 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They're the center of your life.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2396.5, "end": 2396.56, "word": " We're", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 2396.56, "end": 2396.76, "word": " doing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2396.76, "end": 2397.08, "word": " more", "probability": 0.9765625 }, { "start": 2397.08, "end": 2397.32, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2397.32, "end": 2397.52, "word": " them.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2397.64, "end": 2397.76, "word": " They're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2397.76, "end": 2397.88, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2397.88, "end": 2398.16, "word": " center", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2398.16, "end": 2398.3, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2398.3, "end": 2398.4, "word": " your", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2398.4, "end": 2398.84, "word": " life.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2399.08, "end": 2403.92, "text": "Oh, yeah, yeah. But it's hard to sell. I mean, when you have McDonald's and Home Depot down", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2399.08, "end": 2399.24, "word": " Oh,", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 2399.3, "end": 2399.38, "word": " yeah,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2399.44, "end": 2399.56, "word": " yeah.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2399.98, "end": 2400.2, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 2400.2, "end": 2400.68, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.839599609375 }, { "start": 2400.68, "end": 2400.92, "word": " hard", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2400.92, "end": 2401.08, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2401.08, "end": 2401.3, "word": " sell.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2401.54, "end": 2401.7, "word": " I", "probability": 0.89697265625 }, { "start": 2401.7, "end": 2401.84, "word": " mean,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2402.0, "end": 2402.1, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2402.1, "end": 2402.2, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2402.2, "end": 2402.46, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2402.46, "end": 2403.1, "word": " McDonald's", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2403.1, "end": 2403.2, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2403.2, "end": 2403.38, "word": " Home", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2403.38, "end": 2403.64, "word": " Depot", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2403.64, "end": 2403.92, "word": " down", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2403.92, "end": 2410.72, "text": "35 % and Harley Davidson, all these consumer -facing companies, why is Apple at", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2403.92, "end": 2404.3, "word": " 35", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2404.3, "end": 2404.76, "word": "%", "probability": 0.67578125 }, { "start": 2405.28, "end": 2405.62, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2405.62, "end": 2406.36, "word": " Harley", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2406.36, "end": 2406.82, "word": " Davidson,", "probability": 0.5615234375 }, { "start": 2406.82, "end": 2407.48, "word": " all", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 2407.48, "end": 2407.7, "word": " these", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2407.7, "end": 2408.12, "word": " consumer", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2408.12, "end": 2408.36, "word": "-facing", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 2408.36, "end": 2408.88, "word": " companies,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2409.06, "end": 2409.54, "word": " why", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2409.54, "end": 2409.86, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2409.86, "end": 2410.4, "word": " Apple", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2410.4, "end": 2410.72, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2410.72, "end": 2416.38, "text": "$5 trillion? dollars. So I'm actually seeing people, this is a sophisticated trade, but if", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2410.72, "end": 2411.06, "word": " $5", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2411.06, "end": 2411.36, "word": " trillion?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2411.36, "end": 2411.64, "word": " dollars.", "probability": 0.54638671875 }, { "start": 2412.26, "end": 2412.34, "word": " So", "probability": 0.83544921875 }, { "start": 2412.34, "end": 2413.12, "word": " I'm", "probability": 0.905029296875 }, { "start": 2413.12, "end": 2413.34, "word": " actually", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2413.34, "end": 2413.62, "word": " seeing", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2413.62, "end": 2413.9, "word": " people,", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2413.98, "end": 2414.12, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2414.12, "end": 2414.24, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9453125 }, { "start": 2414.24, "end": 2414.42, "word": " a", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 2414.42, "end": 2415.16, "word": " sophisticated", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2415.16, "end": 2415.66, "word": " trade,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2415.76, "end": 2415.88, "word": " but", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 2415.88, "end": 2416.38, "word": " if", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2416.38, "end": 2420.56, "text": "you buy the bonds at 47, you take the coupons, say you put a million bucks in, you get the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2416.38, "end": 2416.48, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2416.48, "end": 2416.74, "word": " buy", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2416.74, "end": 2416.9, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2416.9, "end": 2417.24, "word": " bonds", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2417.24, "end": 2417.36, "word": " at", "probability": 0.8056640625 }, { "start": 2417.36, "end": 2417.74, "word": " 47,", "probability": 0.79296875 }, { "start": 2418.22, "end": 2418.44, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2418.44, "end": 2418.62, "word": " take", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2418.62, "end": 2418.78, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2418.78, "end": 2419.2, "word": " coupons,", "probability": 0.941650390625 }, { "start": 2419.28, "end": 2419.36, "word": " say", "probability": 0.9638671875 }, { "start": 2419.36, "end": 2419.44, "word": " you", "probability": 0.97412109375 }, { "start": 2419.44, "end": 2419.5, "word": " put", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2419.5, "end": 2419.58, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 2419.58, "end": 2419.76, "word": " million", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2419.76, "end": 2419.98, "word": " bucks", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2419.98, "end": 2420.1, "word": " in,", "probability": 0.95361328125 }, { "start": 2420.16, "end": 2420.28, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2420.28, "end": 2420.4, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2420.4, "end": 2420.56, "word": " the", "probability": 0.994140625 } ] }, { "start": 2420.56, "end": 2427.16, "text": "coupons, maybe that's $30 ,000 on a million. And you buy like two -year puts on the Apple", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2420.56, "end": 2421.12, "word": " coupons,", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2421.48, "end": 2421.72, "word": " maybe", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2421.72, "end": 2421.94, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2421.94, "end": 2422.18, "word": " $30", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2422.18, "end": 2422.6, "word": ",000", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2422.6, "end": 2423.38, "word": " on", "probability": 0.91650390625 }, { "start": 2423.38, "end": 2423.48, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2423.48, "end": 2423.72, "word": " million.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2424.08, "end": 2424.38, "word": " And", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2424.38, "end": 2424.48, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2424.48, "end": 2424.8, "word": " buy", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2424.8, "end": 2425.3, "word": " like", "probability": 0.6484375 }, { "start": 2425.3, "end": 2426.1, "word": " two", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2426.1, "end": 2426.3, "word": "-year", "probability": 0.761474609375 }, { "start": 2426.3, "end": 2426.58, "word": " puts", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2426.58, "end": 2426.74, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2426.74, "end": 2426.86, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2426.86, "end": 2427.16, "word": " Apple", "probability": 0.99462890625 } ] }, { "start": 2427.16, "end": 2433.06, "text": "equity. So think about this. 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Because they sell to consumers. So that's the type of", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2437.48, "end": 2437.94, "word": " That", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2437.94, "end": 2438.12, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2438.12, "end": 2438.58, "word": " kill", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2438.58, "end": 2438.92, "word": " Apple", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 2438.92, "end": 2439.28, "word": " stock,", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2439.6, "end": 2439.74, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.97119140625 }, { "start": 2440.0, "end": 2440.46, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2440.46, "end": 2440.64, "word": " they", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2440.64, "end": 2440.9, "word": " sell", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2440.9, "end": 2441.04, "word": " to", "probability": 0.97900390625 }, { "start": 2441.04, "end": 2441.46, "word": " consumers.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2442.04, "end": 2442.12, "word": " So", "probability": 0.8193359375 }, { "start": 2442.12, "end": 2443.52, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.978515625 }, { "start": 2443.52, "end": 2443.66, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2443.66, "end": 2443.88, "word": " type", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2443.88, "end": 2444.08, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2444.08, "end": 2449.14, "text": "trade where bond volatility is through the roof. You're crashing over here. 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And so it's like a seesaw and it's going to flatten out.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2449.14, "end": 2449.58, "word": " volatility", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2449.58, "end": 2449.84, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2449.84, "end": 2450.26, "word": " low", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2450.26, "end": 2450.58, "word": " and", "probability": 0.75146484375 }, { "start": 2450.58, "end": 2450.88, "word": " high", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2450.88, "end": 2451.44, "word": " prices.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2451.62, "end": 2452.06, "word": " And", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 2452.06, "end": 2452.26, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2452.26, "end": 2452.5, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2452.5, "end": 2452.64, "word": " like", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2452.64, "end": 2452.76, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2452.76, "end": 2453.4, "word": " seesaw", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2453.4, "end": 2453.7, "word": " and", "probability": 0.7861328125 }, { "start": 2453.7, "end": 2453.88, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2453.88, "end": 2453.94, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 2453.94, "end": 2454.06, "word": " to", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2454.06, "end": 2454.88, "word": " flatten", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2454.88, "end": 2455.3, "word": " out.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2455.7, "end": 2459.14, "text": "And so that's why people are starting to look at bonds.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2455.7, "end": 2455.82, "word": " And", "probability": 0.81005859375 }, { "start": 2455.82, "end": 2456.28, "word": " so", "probability": 0.5732421875 }, { "start": 2456.28, "end": 2456.64, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2456.64, "end": 2457.6, "word": " why", "probability": 0.93896484375 }, { "start": 2457.6, "end": 2458.0, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2458.0, "end": 2458.16, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2458.16, "end": 2458.38, "word": " starting", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2458.38, "end": 2458.52, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2458.52, "end": 2458.68, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2458.68, "end": 2458.78, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2458.78, "end": 2459.14, "word": " bonds.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2459.5, "end": 2463.58, "text": "Yeah, that's super interesting. This is why it's not your passive game anymore, because", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2459.5, "end": 2459.6, "word": " Yeah,", "probability": 0.9755859375 }, { "start": 2459.7, "end": 2459.9, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2459.9, "end": 2460.08, "word": " super", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2460.08, "end": 2460.42, "word": " interesting.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2460.58, "end": 2460.7, "word": " This", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2460.7, "end": 2460.82, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2460.82, "end": 2461.0, "word": " why", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2461.0, "end": 2461.24, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2461.24, "end": 2461.46, "word": " not", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2461.46, "end": 2462.04, "word": " your", "probability": 0.9736328125 }, { "start": 2462.04, "end": 2462.48, "word": " passive", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2462.48, "end": 2462.78, "word": " game", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2462.78, "end": 2463.16, "word": " anymore,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2463.16, "end": 2463.58, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2463.58, "end": 2468.46, "text": "that is a much more sort of active view of what's going on. So let's talk about when we're", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2463.58, "end": 2463.84, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2463.84, "end": 2464.02, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2464.02, "end": 2464.18, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2464.18, "end": 2464.4, "word": " much", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2464.4, "end": 2464.66, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2464.66, "end": 2464.88, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.61376953125 }, { "start": 2464.88, "end": 2465.02, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2465.02, "end": 2465.38, "word": " active", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2465.38, "end": 2465.68, "word": " view", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2465.68, "end": 2465.86, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2465.86, "end": 2466.1, "word": " what's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2466.1, "end": 2466.34, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2466.34, "end": 2466.64, "word": " on.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2466.8, "end": 2467.06, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2467.06, "end": 2467.3, "word": " let's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2467.3, "end": 2467.48, "word": " talk", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2467.48, "end": 2467.8, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2467.8, "end": 2468.32, "word": " when", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 2468.32, "end": 2468.46, "word": " we're", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2468.46, "end": 2472.16, "text": "looking at the sort of portfolio a wheel. And let's face it, this is still what an awful", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2468.46, "end": 2468.68, "word": " looking", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2468.68, "end": 2468.96, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2468.96, "end": 2469.26, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 2469.26, "end": 2469.42, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.87744140625 }, { "start": 2469.42, "end": 2469.52, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2469.52, "end": 2470.04, "word": " portfolio", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2470.04, "end": 2470.2, "word": " a", "probability": 0.8154296875 }, { "start": 2470.2, "end": 2470.44, "word": " wheel.", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2470.6, "end": 2470.64, "word": " And", "probability": 0.8984375 }, { "start": 2470.64, "end": 2470.82, "word": " let's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2470.82, "end": 2471.0, "word": " face", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2471.0, "end": 2471.16, "word": " it,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2471.24, "end": 2471.36, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2471.36, "end": 2471.46, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2471.46, "end": 2471.68, "word": " still", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2471.68, "end": 2471.86, "word": " what", "probability": 0.9755859375 }, { "start": 2471.86, "end": 2472.0, "word": " an", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2472.0, "end": 2472.16, "word": " awful", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2472.16, "end": 2477.28, "text": "lot of people do. And I hear you bullish on hard assets. A lot of people interested in", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2472.16, "end": 2472.34, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2472.34, "end": 2472.42, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2472.42, "end": 2472.64, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2472.64, "end": 2472.92, "word": " do.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2473.02, "end": 2473.08, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 2473.08, "end": 2473.2, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2473.2, "end": 2473.46, "word": " hear", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2473.46, "end": 2473.68, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2473.68, "end": 2474.12, "word": " bullish", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2474.12, "end": 2474.4, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2474.4, "end": 2474.66, "word": " hard", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2474.66, "end": 2475.3, "word": " assets.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2475.68, "end": 2476.14, "word": " A", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2476.14, "end": 2476.36, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2476.36, "end": 2476.5, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2476.5, "end": 2476.7, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2476.7, "end": 2477.08, "word": " interested", "probability": 0.92041015625 }, { "start": 2477.08, "end": 2477.28, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2477.28, "end": 2481.78, "text": "commodities. We've been talking a lot with our audience about what diversification looks", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2477.28, "end": 2477.78, "word": " commodities.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2477.96, "end": 2478.42, "word": " We've", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2478.42, "end": 2478.5, "word": " been", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2478.5, "end": 2478.78, "word": " talking", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2478.78, "end": 2479.02, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2479.02, "end": 2479.22, "word": " lot", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2479.22, "end": 2479.4, "word": " with", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2479.4, "end": 2479.54, "word": " our", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2479.54, "end": 2479.9, "word": " audience", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2479.9, "end": 2480.18, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2480.18, "end": 2480.6, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2480.6, "end": 2481.32, "word": " diversification", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2481.32, "end": 2481.78, "word": " looks", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2481.78, "end": 2486.92, "text": "like into real assets. But if the AI trade rolls over, what does that mean for commodity", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2481.78, "end": 2481.98, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2481.98, "end": 2482.18, "word": " into", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2482.18, "end": 2482.4, "word": " real", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2482.4, "end": 2482.82, "word": " assets.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2482.98, "end": 2483.28, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2483.28, "end": 2483.38, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2483.38, "end": 2483.52, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2483.52, "end": 2483.78, "word": " AI", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 2483.78, "end": 2484.2, "word": " trade", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2484.2, "end": 2484.54, "word": " rolls", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2484.54, "end": 2484.9, "word": " over,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2485.2, "end": 2485.46, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2485.46, "end": 2485.6, "word": " does", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2485.6, "end": 2485.82, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2485.82, "end": 2486.02, "word": " mean", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2486.02, "end": 2486.34, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2486.34, "end": 2486.92, "word": " commodity", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2486.92, "end": 2493.9, "text": "demand? How much of that commodity, hard asset story, energy story is linked to", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2486.92, "end": 2487.38, "word": " demand?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2487.68, "end": 2487.82, "word": " How", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2487.82, "end": 2488.04, "word": " much", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2488.04, "end": 2488.14, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2488.14, "end": 2488.32, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2488.32, "end": 2489.66, "word": " commodity,", "probability": 0.95703125 }, { "start": 2489.66, "end": 2490.86, "word": " hard", "probability": 0.8984375 }, { "start": 2490.86, "end": 2491.2, "word": " asset", "probability": 0.76318359375 }, { "start": 2491.2, "end": 2491.56, "word": " story,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2491.8, "end": 2492.06, "word": " energy", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2492.06, "end": 2492.54, "word": " story", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2492.54, "end": 2493.18, "word": " is", "probability": 0.78271484375 }, { "start": 2493.18, "end": 2493.58, "word": " linked", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2493.58, "end": 2493.9, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2493.9, "end": 2496.64, "text": "the demand, future demand that's expected to come from AI?", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2493.9, "end": 2494.04, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2494.04, "end": 2494.44, "word": " demand,", "probability": 0.91064453125 }, { "start": 2494.68, "end": 2494.84, "word": " future", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2494.84, "end": 2495.16, "word": " demand", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2495.16, "end": 2495.5, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.976806640625 }, { "start": 2495.5, "end": 2495.78, "word": " expected", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2495.78, "end": 2495.96, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2495.96, "end": 2496.12, "word": " come", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2496.12, "end": 2496.3, "word": " from", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2496.3, "end": 2496.64, "word": " AI?", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2496.64, "end": 2502.98, "text": "Right. So that is a piece of mystery meat. So the first stage of AI is very", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2496.64, "end": 2497.26, "word": " Right.", "probability": 0.91845703125 }, { "start": 2497.62, "end": 2497.72, "word": " So", "probability": 0.9296875 }, { "start": 2497.72, "end": 2498.16, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9345703125 }, { "start": 2498.16, "end": 2498.6, "word": " is", "probability": 0.97900390625 }, { "start": 2498.6, "end": 2498.74, "word": " a", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2498.74, "end": 2499.42, "word": " piece", "probability": 0.64013671875 }, { "start": 2499.42, "end": 2499.56, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2499.56, "end": 2499.88, "word": " mystery", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2499.88, "end": 2500.14, "word": " meat.", "probability": 0.94189453125 }, { "start": 2500.98, "end": 2501.5, "word": " So", "probability": 0.97412109375 }, { "start": 2501.5, "end": 2501.66, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2501.66, "end": 2501.92, "word": " first", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2501.92, "end": 2502.18, "word": " stage", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2502.18, "end": 2502.32, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2502.32, "end": 2502.54, "word": " AI", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2502.54, "end": 2502.76, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2502.76, "end": 2502.98, "word": " very", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2502.98, "end": 2509.1, "text": "inflationary because look at Caterpillar. 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It does slow down the hard asset trade. But remember, there's $43 trillion", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2555.1, "end": 2555.56, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 2555.56, "end": 2555.64, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2555.64, "end": 2555.84, "word": " what?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2555.96, "end": 2556.2, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2556.2, "end": 2556.44, "word": " does", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2556.44, "end": 2556.72, "word": " slow", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2556.72, "end": 2556.88, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2556.88, "end": 2557.02, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2557.02, "end": 2557.18, "word": " hard", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2557.18, "end": 2557.44, "word": " asset", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2557.44, "end": 2557.66, "word": " trade.", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 2557.66, "end": 2557.8, "word": " But", "probability": 0.8779296875 }, { "start": 2557.8, "end": 2558.22, "word": " remember,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2558.46, "end": 2559.44, "word": " there's", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2559.44, "end": 2560.1, "word": " $43", "probability": 0.779296875 }, { "start": 2560.1, "end": 2560.62, "word": " trillion", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2560.62, "end": 2567.4, "text": "of wealth in the NASDAQ 100, and in the metals ETF, the XME, it's like not even a trillion", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2560.62, "end": 2560.82, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2560.82, "end": 2561.18, "word": " wealth", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2561.18, "end": 2561.56, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2561.56, "end": 2561.66, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2561.66, "end": 2562.14, "word": " NASDAQ", "probability": 0.9869791666666666 }, { "start": 2562.14, "end": 2562.54, "word": " 100,", "probability": 0.837890625 }, { "start": 2562.54, "end": 2563.42, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2563.42, "end": 2563.8, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2563.8, "end": 2564.34, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2564.34, "end": 2564.7, "word": " metals", "probability": 0.9677734375 }, { "start": 2564.7, "end": 2565.06, "word": " ETF,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2565.26, "end": 2565.32, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2565.32, "end": 2565.9, "word": " XME,", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2566.14, "end": 2566.26, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2566.26, "end": 2566.36, "word": " like", "probability": 0.5419921875 }, { "start": 2566.36, "end": 2566.8, "word": " not", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2566.8, "end": 2566.96, "word": " even", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2566.96, "end": 2567.1, "word": " a", "probability": 0.9638671875 }, { "start": 2567.1, "end": 2567.4, "word": " trillion", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2567.4, "end": 2573.6, "text": "dollars, right? 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By the way, these stocks are cheap. 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Look at Antero range resources. 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"text": "underneath you, that risk -reward is a lot better than the AI insanity.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2622.86, "end": 2623.2, "word": " underneath", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2623.2, "end": 2623.52, "word": " you,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2623.68, "end": 2624.06, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2624.06, "end": 2624.28, "word": " risk", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2624.28, "end": 2624.56, "word": "-reward", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 2624.56, "end": 2624.76, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2624.76, "end": 2624.88, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2624.88, "end": 2625.02, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2625.02, "end": 2625.28, "word": " better", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2625.28, "end": 2625.56, "word": " than", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2625.56, "end": 2625.98, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 2625.98, 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And we talked about stablecoin, and this is something we'll continue to look into", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2628.2, "end": 2628.5, "word": " Yeah.", "probability": 0.8388671875 }, { "start": 2629.44, "end": 2629.96, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 2629.96, "end": 2630.1, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2630.1, "end": 2630.28, "word": " talked", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2630.28, "end": 2630.44, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2630.44, "end": 2631.02, "word": " stablecoin,", "probability": 0.75927734375 }, { "start": 2631.08, "end": 2631.16, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2631.16, "end": 2631.3, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2631.3, "end": 2631.42, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2631.42, "end": 2631.68, "word": " something", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2631.68, "end": 2631.9, "word": " we'll", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2631.9, "end": 2632.24, "word": " continue", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2632.24, "end": 2632.4, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2632.4, "end": 2632.54, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2632.54, "end": 2632.74, "word": " into", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2632.74, "end": 2637.2, "text": "because this is a really big change that's coming. 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God bless him. 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Is anybody is", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2734.36, "end": 2734.82, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2734.82, "end": 2734.96, "word": " looking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2734.96, "end": 2735.18, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2735.18, "end": 2735.74, "word": " cybersecurity?", "probability": 0.904296875 }, { "start": 2735.74, "end": 2736.16, "word": " Are", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2736.16, "end": 2736.22, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2736.22, "end": 2736.44, "word": " looking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2736.44, "end": 2736.62, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2736.62, "end": 2736.94, "word": " anybody", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2736.94, "end": 2737.26, "word": " who's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2737.26, "end": 2737.62, "word": " solving?", "probability": 0.9853515625 }, { "start": 2737.9, "end": 2738.0, "word": " Is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2738.0, "end": 2738.34, "word": " anybody", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2738.34, "end": 2738.64, "word": " is", "probability": 0.0537109375 } ] }, { "start": 2738.64, "end": 2740.46, "text": "anybody looking and playing in that area?", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2738.64, "end": 2738.98, "word": " anybody", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2738.98, "end": 2739.28, "word": " looking", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2739.28, "end": 2739.56, "word": " and", "probability": 0.62744140625 }, { "start": 2739.56, "end": 2739.88, "word": " playing", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2739.88, "end": 2740.04, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2740.04, "end": 2740.2, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2740.2, "end": 2740.46, "word": " area?", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2741.02, "end": 2745.56, "text": "That's an area. And now the cybersecurity stocks are all crazy right now. But yeah, all the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2741.02, "end": 2741.48, "word": " That's", "probability": 0.88232421875 }, { "start": 2741.48, "end": 2741.6, "word": " an", "probability": 0.69482421875 }, { "start": 2741.6, "end": 2741.74, "word": " area.", "probability": 0.92333984375 }, { "start": 2741.86, "end": 2741.92, "word": " And", "probability": 0.740234375 }, { "start": 2741.92, "end": 2742.06, "word": " now", "probability": 0.701171875 }, { "start": 2742.06, "end": 2742.22, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2742.22, "end": 2742.68, "word": " cybersecurity", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 2742.68, "end": 2743.16, "word": " stocks", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2743.16, "end": 2743.32, "word": " are", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2743.32, "end": 2743.6, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2743.6, "end": 2744.38, "word": " crazy", "probability": 0.91064453125 }, { "start": 2744.38, "end": 2744.58, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2744.58, "end": 2744.7, "word": " now.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2744.76, "end": 2744.82, "word": " But", "probability": 0.984375 }, { "start": 2744.82, "end": 2744.94, "word": " yeah,", "probability": 0.93994140625 }, { "start": 2745.02, "end": 2745.4, "word": " all", "probability": 0.533203125 }, { "start": 2745.4, "end": 2745.56, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2745.56, "end": 2748.52, "text": "dips. 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Larry, so fun. This went by so quick. I could keep you much longer, but,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2858.52, "end": 2858.96, "word": " Fantastic", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 2858.96, "end": 2859.28, "word": " stuff.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2859.42, "end": 2859.8, "word": " Larry,", "probability": 0.888671875 }, { "start": 2859.96, "end": 2860.08, "word": " so", "probability": 0.93310546875 }, { "start": 2860.08, "end": 2860.32, "word": " fun.", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2860.4, "end": 2860.48, "word": " This", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 2860.48, "end": 2860.6, "word": " went", "probability": 0.9873046875 }, { "start": 2860.6, "end": 2860.74, "word": " by", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2860.74, "end": 2860.94, "word": " so", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2860.94, "end": 2861.16, "word": " quick.", "probability": 0.98291015625 }, { "start": 2861.24, "end": 2861.3, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2861.3, "end": 2861.4, "word": " could", "probability": 0.87451171875 }, { "start": 2861.4, "end": 2861.58, "word": " keep", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2861.58, "end": 2861.72, "word": " you", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2861.72, "end": 2861.92, "word": " much", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2861.92, "end": 2862.28, "word": " longer,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2862.42, "end": 2862.52, "word": " but,", "probability": 0.99658203125 } ] }, { "start": 2862.54, "end": 2865.68, "text": "you know, we know we see those screens blinking behind you, so we know you got a lot of", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2862.54, "end": 2862.7, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2862.7, "end": 2862.76, "word": " know,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2862.86, "end": 2862.9, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 2862.9, "end": 2863.02, "word": " know", "probability": 0.51123046875 }, { "start": 2863.02, "end": 2863.24, "word": " we", "probability": 0.1558837890625 }, { "start": 2863.24, "end": 2863.54, "word": " see", "probability": 0.5087890625 }, { "start": 2863.54, "end": 2863.76, "word": " those", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 2863.76, "end": 2864.02, "word": " screens", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2864.02, "end": 2864.32, "word": " blinking", "probability": 0.97705078125 }, { "start": 2864.32, "end": 2864.58, "word": " behind", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2864.58, "end": 2864.78, "word": " you,", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 2864.86, "end": 2864.92, "word": " so", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 2864.92, "end": 2865.04, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 2865.04, "end": 2865.16, "word": " know", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2865.16, "end": 2865.26, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2865.26, "end": 2865.38, "word": " got", "probability": 0.83837890625 }, { "start": 2865.38, "end": 2865.52, "word": " a", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 2865.52, "end": 2865.58, "word": " lot", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2865.58, "end": 2865.68, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9970703125 } ] }, { "start": 2865.68, "end": 2868.8, "text": "work to do. But thank you for your time, and come back and see us again soon.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 2", "words": [ { "start": 2865.68, "end": 2865.84, "word": " work", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2865.84, "end": 2865.98, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2865.98, "end": 2866.2, "word": " do.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2866.34, "end": 2866.6, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 2866.6, "end": 2866.78, "word": " thank", "probability": 0.9658203125 }, { "start": 2866.78, "end": 2866.94, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2866.94, "end": 2867.06, "word": " for", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2867.06, "end": 2867.18, "word": " your", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2867.18, "end": 2867.44, "word": " time,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2867.52, "end": 2867.66, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2867.66, "end": 2867.82, "word": " come", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2867.82, "end": 2867.94, "word": " back", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2867.94, "end": 2868.1, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2868.1, "end": 2868.24, "word": " see", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2868.24, "end": 2868.36, "word": " us", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2868.36, "end": 2868.52, "word": " again", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2868.52, "end": 2868.8, "word": " soon.", "probability": 0.99462890625 } ] }, { "start": 2869.22, "end": 2870.52, "text": "Thanks, Maggie. All the best.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2869.22, "end": 2869.42, "word": " Thanks,", "probability": 0.9150390625 }, { "start": 2869.5, "end": 2869.68, "word": " Maggie.", "probability": 0.7392578125 }, { "start": 2869.96, "end": 2870.2, "word": " All", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2870.2, "end": 2870.28, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2870.28, "end": 2870.52, "word": " best.", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] } ], "language": "en", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2876.30225, "speech_duration": 2866.672, "processing_seconds": 29.331198443000176, "started_at": "2026-10-20T17:05:10.695495+00:00", "finished_at": "2026-10-20T17:05:40.026708+00:00", "schema_version": 1, "source": "asr", "video_id": "8F3x-mRHFUo", "title": "Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year", "channel_id": "UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A", "source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8F3x-mRHFUo", "kind": "upload", "profile": 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Great to have you with us.", "avg_logprob": -0.1757550379573899, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 19.86, "end": 19.98, "word": " Hi,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 20.1, "end": 20.38, "word": " Larry.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 20.84, "end": 21.08, "word": " Great", "probability": 0.86767578125 }, { "start": 21.08, "end": 21.26, "word": " to", "probability": 0.8125 }, { "start": 21.26, "end": 21.34, "word": " have", "probability": 0.5986328125 }, { "start": 21.34, "end": 21.44, "word": " you", "probability": 0.79345703125 }, { "start": 21.44, "end": 21.66, "word": " with", "probability": 0.285888671875 }, { "start": 21.66, "end": 21.72, "word": " us.", "probability": 0.9970703125 } ] }, { "start": 21.8, "end": 23.42, "text": "Thanks for having me. What a pleasure.", "avg_logprob": -0.1757550379573899, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 21.8, "end": 22.0, "word": " Thanks", "probability": 0.7958984375 }, { "start": 22.0, "end": 22.16, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 22.16, "end": 22.42, "word": " having", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 22.42, "end": 22.6, "word": " me.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 22.68, "end": 22.78, "word": " What", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 22.78, "end": 23.16, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 23.16, "end": 23.42, "word": " pleasure.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 23.76, "end": 26.88, "text": "Yeah, same here. So it's going to be a great convo.", "avg_logprob": -0.1757550379573899, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 23.76, "end": 23.98, "word": " Yeah,", "probability": 0.98583984375 }, { "start": 24.16, "end": 24.3, "word": " same", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 24.3, "end": 24.54, "word": " here.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 24.8, "end": 24.94, "word": " So", "probability": 0.9521484375 }, { "start": 24.94, "end": 25.78, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.923828125 }, { "start": 25.78, "end": 25.86, "word": " going", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 25.86, "end": 25.9, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 25.9, "end": 26.06, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 26.06, "end": 26.3, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 26.3, "end": 26.52, "word": " great", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 26.52, "end": 26.88, "word": " convo.", "probability": 0.899658203125 } ] }, { "start": 26.98, "end": 29.38, "text": "The work you do is all about avoiding drawdowns,", "avg_logprob": -0.1757550379573899, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 26.98, "end": 27.04, "word": " The", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 27.04, "end": 27.32, "word": " work", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 27.32, "end": 27.64, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 27.64, "end": 27.82, "word": " do", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 27.82, "end": 27.98, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 27.98, "end": 28.12, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 28.12, "end": 28.28, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 28.28, "end": 28.62, "word": " avoiding", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 28.62, "end": 29.38, "word": " drawdowns,", "probability": 0.9807942708333334 } ] }, { "start": 29.44, "end": 31.7, "text": "and it feels like we really need to be thinking about that right now.", "avg_logprob": -0.1757550379573899, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 29.44, "end": 29.5, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 29.5, "end": 29.58, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 29.58, "end": 29.74, "word": " feels", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 29.74, "end": 29.86, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 29.86, "end": 29.98, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 29.98, "end": 30.18, "word": " really", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 30.18, "end": 30.34, "word": " need", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 30.34, "end": 30.44, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 30.44, "end": 30.54, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 30.54, "end": 30.74, "word": " thinking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 30.74, "end": 30.98, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 30.98, "end": 31.16, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 31.16, "end": 31.38, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 31.38, "end": 31.7, "word": " now.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 31.7, "end": 37.22, "text": "where are the greatest risks investors need to be positioned for right now? 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Well, you know, the year end setup is fascinating because the relationship between", "avg_logprob": -0.09366319237483872, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 37.22, "end": 37.44, "word": " radar?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 37.94, "end": 38.06, "word": " Well,", "probability": 0.96875 }, { "start": 38.28, "end": 38.32, "word": " you", "probability": 0.499755859375 }, { "start": 38.32, "end": 38.38, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 38.48, "end": 38.54, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 38.54, "end": 38.86, "word": " year", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 38.86, "end": 39.08, "word": " end", "probability": 0.59033203125 }, { "start": 39.08, "end": 39.5, "word": " setup", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 39.5, "end": 39.88, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 39.88, "end": 40.56, "word": " fascinating", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 40.56, "end": 40.98, "word": " because", "probability": 0.9755859375 }, { "start": 40.98, "end": 42.32, "word": " the", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 42.32, "end": 42.92, "word": " relationship", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 42.92, "end": 43.3, "word": " between", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 43.3, "end": 51.2, "text": "the index, so the S&P and what I call the dark side of passive investing, it's getting pretty", "avg_logprob": -0.09366319237483872, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 43.3, "end": 43.58, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 43.58, "end": 44.12, "word": " index,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 44.34, "end": 44.42, "word": " so", "probability": 0.955078125 }, { "start": 44.42, "end": 44.52, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 44.52, "end": 44.7, "word": " S", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 44.7, "end": 45.04, "word": "&P", "probability": 0.995361328125 }, { "start": 45.04, "end": 46.32, "word": " and", "probability": 0.262939453125 }, { "start": 46.32, "end": 46.46, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 46.46, "end": 46.56, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 46.56, "end": 46.84, "word": " call", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 46.84, "end": 47.04, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 47.04, "end": 47.36, "word": " dark", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 47.36, "end": 47.7, "word": " side", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 47.7, "end": 48.62, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 48.62, "end": 49.02, "word": " passive", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 49.02, "end": 49.48, "word": " investing,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 49.48, "end": 50.68, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 50.68, "end": 50.92, "word": " getting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 50.92, "end": 51.2, "word": " pretty", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 51.2, "end": 61.36, "text": "crazy. Probably 60 Hall of Fame brands that are down 35 to 80 percent and the index is at all", "avg_logprob": -0.09366319237483872, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 51.2, "end": 51.7, "word": " crazy.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 51.92, "end": 52.14, "word": " Probably", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 52.14, "end": 52.68, "word": " 60", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 52.68, "end": 53.0, "word": " Hall", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 53.0, "end": 53.16, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 53.16, "end": 53.34, "word": " Fame", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 53.34, "end": 53.74, "word": " brands", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 53.74, "end": 54.66, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 54.66, "end": 54.78, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 54.78, "end": 55.06, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 55.06, "end": 55.58, "word": " 35", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 55.58, "end": 55.98, "word": " to", "probability": 0.97705078125 }, { "start": 55.98, "end": 56.28, "word": " 80", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 56.28, "end": 56.72, "word": " percent", "probability": 0.7060546875 }, { "start": 56.72, "end": 57.38, "word": " and", "probability": 0.779296875 }, { "start": 57.38, "end": 57.5, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 57.5, "end": 57.78, "word": " index", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 57.78, "end": 57.94, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 57.94, "end": 61.02, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 61.02, "end": 61.36, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 61.36, "end": 69.9, "text": "season in years where the S&P's up 10, 15, 20% and great brands are down. You want to get along", "avg_logprob": -0.08601973856750288, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 61.36, "end": 61.86, "word": " season", "probability": 0.1475830078125 }, { "start": 61.86, "end": 62.62, "word": " in", "probability": 0.6220703125 }, { "start": 62.62, "end": 62.96, "word": " years", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 62.96, "end": 63.24, "word": " where", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 63.24, "end": 63.52, "word": " the", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 63.52, "end": 63.7, "word": " S", "probability": 0.98779296875 }, { "start": 63.7, "end": 64.04, "word": "&P's", "probability": 0.7796223958333334 }, { "start": 64.04, "end": 64.54, "word": " up", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 64.54, "end": 65.28, "word": " 10,", "probability": 0.83447265625 }, { "start": 65.44, "end": 65.68, "word": " 15,", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 65.82, "end": 65.96, "word": " 20", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 65.96, "end": 66.24, "word": "%", "probability": 0.392333984375 }, { "start": 66.24, "end": 66.98, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 66.98, "end": 67.62, "word": " great", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 67.62, "end": 68.02, "word": " brands", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 68.02, "end": 68.22, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 68.22, "end": 68.58, "word": " down.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 68.98, "end": 69.28, "word": " You", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 69.28, "end": 69.4, "word": " want", "probability": 0.9306640625 }, { "start": 69.4, "end": 69.48, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 69.48, "end": 69.6, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 69.6, "end": 69.9, "word": " along", "probability": 0.7353515625 } ] }, { "start": 69.9, "end": 75.24, "text": "the wonderful brands and maybe think about even shorting the index or by puts on the index. But", "avg_logprob": -0.08601973856750288, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 69.9, "end": 70.08, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 70.08, "end": 70.4, "word": " wonderful", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 70.4, "end": 70.92, "word": " brands", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 70.92, "end": 71.62, "word": " and", "probability": 0.95751953125 }, { "start": 71.62, "end": 71.92, "word": " maybe", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 71.92, "end": 72.28, "word": " think", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 72.28, "end": 72.46, "word": " about", "probability": 0.685546875 }, { "start": 72.46, "end": 72.66, "word": " even", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 72.66, "end": 73.18, "word": " shorting", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 73.18, "end": 73.3, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 73.3, "end": 73.74, "word": " index", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 73.74, "end": 74.02, "word": " or", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 74.02, "end": 74.2, "word": " by", "probability": 0.91552734375 }, { "start": 74.2, "end": 74.46, "word": " puts", "probability": 0.87451171875 }, { "start": 74.46, "end": 74.56, "word": " on", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 74.56, "end": 74.64, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 74.64, "end": 74.86, "word": " index.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 75.0, "end": 75.24, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 75.24, "end": 81.08, "text": "that's what we're seeing the most sophisticated institutional investors behind me in our Bloomberg", "avg_logprob": -0.08601973856750288, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 75.24, "end": 75.54, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 75.54, "end": 75.66, "word": " what", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 75.66, "end": 75.86, "word": " we're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 75.86, "end": 76.18, "word": " seeing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 76.18, "end": 76.66, "word": " the", "probability": 0.66064453125 }, { "start": 76.66, "end": 76.88, "word": " most", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 76.88, "end": 77.58, "word": " sophisticated", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 77.58, "end": 78.5, "word": " institutional", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 78.5, "end": 78.98, "word": " investors", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 78.98, "end": 79.84, "word": " behind", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 79.84, "end": 80.22, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 80.22, "end": 80.46, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 80.46, "end": 80.62, "word": " our", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 80.62, "end": 81.08, "word": " Bloomberg", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 81.08, "end": 86.46, "text": "chat. That's a trade that I'm seeing people put on. We asked the experts closest to the real", "avg_logprob": -0.08601973856750288, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 81.08, "end": 81.36, "word": " chat.", "probability": 0.96435546875 }, { "start": 81.48, "end": 81.68, "word": " That's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 81.68, "end": 82.32, "word": " a", "probability": 0.78271484375 }, { "start": 82.32, "end": 82.58, "word": " trade", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 82.58, "end": 82.74, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 82.74, "end": 82.86, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 82.86, "end": 83.0, "word": " seeing", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 83.0, "end": 83.26, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 83.26, "end": 83.44, "word": " put", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 83.44, "end": 83.62, "word": " on.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 83.8, "end": 84.28, "word": " We", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 84.28, "end": 84.58, "word": " asked", "probability": 0.84912109375 }, { "start": 84.58, "end": 84.74, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 84.74, "end": 85.26, "word": " experts", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 85.26, "end": 85.82, "word": " closest", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 85.82, "end": 86.08, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 86.08, "end": 86.2, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 86.2, "end": 86.46, "word": " real", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 86.46, "end": 92.4, "text": "economy to make sense of it. The people who build, mine, and power real assets and put their own", "avg_logprob": -0.1169458762886598, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 86.46, "end": 86.88, "word": " economy", "probability": 0.87744140625 }, { "start": 86.88, "end": 87.14, "word": " to", "probability": 0.97705078125 }, { "start": 87.14, "end": 87.3, "word": " make", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 87.3, "end": 87.56, "word": " sense", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 87.56, "end": 87.74, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 87.74, "end": 87.84, "word": " it.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 87.92, "end": 88.02, "word": " The", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 88.02, "end": 88.28, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 88.28, "end": 88.46, "word": " who", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 88.46, "end": 88.96, "word": " build,", "probability": 0.9775390625 }, { "start": 89.34, "end": 89.58, "word": " mine,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 89.76, "end": 90.0, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 90.0, "end": 90.46, "word": " power", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 90.46, "end": 90.84, "word": " real", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 90.84, "end": 91.3, "word": " assets", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 91.3, "end": 91.74, "word": " and", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 91.74, "end": 91.96, "word": " put", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 91.96, "end": 92.16, "word": " their", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 92.16, "end": 92.4, "word": " own", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 92.4, "end": 98.12, "text": "capital behind them. Then we connect the dots and tell you what it means for your money. Wealthion.", "avg_logprob": -0.1169458762886598, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 92.4, "end": 92.8, "word": " capital", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 92.8, "end": 93.12, "word": " behind", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 93.12, "end": 93.48, "word": " them.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 93.62, "end": 93.74, "word": " Then", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 93.74, "end": 93.94, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 93.94, "end": 94.24, "word": " connect", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 94.24, "end": 94.4, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 94.4, "end": 94.72, "word": " dots", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 94.72, "end": 95.14, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 95.14, "end": 95.36, "word": " tell", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 95.36, "end": 95.7, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 95.7, "end": 96.02, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 96.02, "end": 96.12, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 96.12, "end": 96.4, "word": " means", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 96.4, "end": 96.58, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 96.58, "end": 96.74, "word": " your", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 96.74, "end": 97.04, "word": " money.", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 97.66, "end": 98.12, "word": " Wealthion.", "probability": 0.8145345052083334 } ] }, { "start": 99.2, "end": 108.7, "text": "It's interesting. It sounds like rotation within equities, look for the sort of beaten down,", "avg_logprob": -0.1169458762886598, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 99.2, "end": 99.72, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 99.72, "end": 100.1, "word": " interesting.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 100.28, "end": 100.32, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 100.32, "end": 100.58, "word": " sounds", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 100.58, "end": 100.86, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 100.86, "end": 101.68, "word": " rotation", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 101.68, "end": 102.48, "word": " within", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 102.48, "end": 104.88, "word": " equities,", "probability": 0.956787109375 }, { "start": 105.46, "end": 105.64, "word": " look", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 105.64, "end": 106.02, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 106.02, "end": 106.46, "word": " the", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 106.46, "end": 107.36, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.7705078125 }, { "start": 107.36, "end": 107.92, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 107.92, "end": 108.48, "word": " beaten", "probability": 0.59228515625 }, { "start": 108.48, "end": 108.7, "word": " down,", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 108.8, "end": 113.78, "text": "kind of sounds like a value trade. But I hear a lot of people really concern, listen, yeah,", "avg_logprob": -0.1169458762886598, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 108.8, "end": 108.88, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.9580078125 }, { "start": 108.88, "end": 108.98, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 108.98, "end": 109.18, "word": " sounds", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 109.18, "end": 109.32, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 109.32, "end": 109.44, "word": " a", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 109.44, "end": 109.92, "word": " value", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 109.92, "end": 110.46, "word": " trade.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 110.64, "end": 111.16, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 111.16, "end": 111.26, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 111.26, "end": 111.42, "word": " hear", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 111.42, "end": 111.6, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 111.6, "end": 111.74, "word": " lot", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 111.74, "end": 111.88, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 111.88, "end": 112.12, "word": " people", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 112.12, "end": 112.38, "word": " really", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 112.38, "end": 112.84, "word": " concern,", "probability": 0.499267578125 }, { "start": 113.12, "end": 113.38, "word": " listen,", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 113.66, "end": 113.78, "word": " yeah,", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 113.78, "end": 119.42, "text": "the S&P 500 is broken. 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And it's risky. It sounds like you're not bearish equities. 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Think of the idiocy of this, right? And this is how passive investing", "avg_logprob": -0.0679976840124086, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 179.88, "end": 179.94, "word": " going", "probability": 0.91796875 }, { "start": 179.94, "end": 180.04, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 180.04, "end": 180.34, "word": " take", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 180.34, "end": 180.74, "word": " three", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 180.74, "end": 181.38, "word": " IPOs.", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 181.5, "end": 181.62, "word": " Think", "probability": 0.845703125 }, { "start": 181.62, "end": 181.74, "word": " of", "probability": 0.97802734375 }, { "start": 181.74, "end": 181.84, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 181.84, "end": 182.22, "word": " idiocy", "probability": 0.80029296875 }, { "start": 182.22, "end": 182.42, "word": " of", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 182.42, "end": 182.58, "word": " this,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 182.68, "end": 182.78, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 182.98, "end": 183.16, "word": " And", "probability": 0.97607421875 }, { "start": 183.16, "end": 183.58, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 183.58, "end": 183.68, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 183.68, "end": 183.82, "word": " how", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 183.82, "end": 184.32, "word": " passive", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 184.32, "end": 184.74, "word": " investing", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 184.74, "end": 191.72, "text": "gets gamed, right? So these three IPOs, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, three years ago were worth", "avg_logprob": -0.0679976840124086, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 184.74, "end": 185.02, "word": " gets", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 185.02, "end": 185.56, "word": " gamed,", "probability": 0.965087890625 }, { "start": 185.7, "end": 185.88, "word": " right?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 186.12, "end": 186.54, "word": " So", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 186.54, "end": 186.86, "word": " these", "probability": 0.94384765625 }, { "start": 186.86, "end": 187.06, "word": " three", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 187.06, "end": 187.56, "word": " IPOs,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 187.68, "end": 188.08, "word": " SpaceX,", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 188.36, "end": 189.02, "word": " Anthropic,", "probability": 0.952392578125 }, { "start": 189.14, "end": 189.22, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 189.22, "end": 189.62, "word": " OpenAI,", "probability": 0.991455078125 }, { "start": 189.94, "end": 190.42, "word": " three", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 190.42, "end": 190.66, "word": " years", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 190.66, "end": 190.94, "word": " ago", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 190.94, "end": 191.42, "word": " were", "probability": 0.80419921875 }, { "start": 191.42, "end": 191.72, "word": " worth", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 192.88, "end": 200.44, "text": "$360 billion. 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And we're going to put them in the", "avg_logprob": -0.13703547887973958, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 192.88, "end": 193.32, "word": " $360", "probability": 0.927734375 }, { "start": 193.32, "end": 193.76, "word": " billion.", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 194.8, "end": 195.24, "word": " Now", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 195.24, "end": 195.46, "word": " they're", "probability": 0.9677734375 }, { "start": 195.46, "end": 195.58, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 195.58, "end": 195.96, "word": " $5", "probability": 0.93408203125 }, { "start": 195.96, "end": 196.64, "word": ".1", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 196.64, "end": 197.02, "word": " trillion", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 197.02, "end": 198.32, "word": " from", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 198.32, "end": 198.74, "word": " $360", "probability": 0.996826171875 }, { "start": 198.74, "end": 199.12, "word": " billion.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 199.28, "end": 199.52, "word": " And", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 199.52, "end": 199.66, "word": " we're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 199.66, "end": 199.78, "word": " going", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 199.78, "end": 199.86, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 199.86, "end": 200.06, "word": " put", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 200.06, "end": 200.2, "word": " them", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 200.2, "end": 200.32, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 200.32, "end": 200.44, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 200.44, "end": 204.64, "text": "index. We're going to put it into the NASDAQ 100. 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And they're", "avg_logprob": -0.13703547887973958, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 205.18, "end": 205.62, "word": " This", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 205.62, "end": 205.84, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 205.84, "end": 206.04, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 206.04, "end": 206.46, "word": " greatest", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 206.46, "end": 207.1, "word": " cash", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 207.1, "end": 207.38, "word": " out", "probability": 0.82373046875 }, { "start": 207.38, "end": 207.66, "word": " from", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 207.66, "end": 208.3, "word": " billionaires", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 208.3, "end": 208.5, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 208.5, "end": 208.82, "word": " Silicon", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 208.82, "end": 209.2, "word": " Valley", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 209.2, "end": 209.46, "word": " 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So that bond's", "avg_logprob": -0.09187199182521838, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 454.08, "end": 454.6, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.64404296875 }, { "start": 454.6, "end": 454.82, "word": " turning", "probability": 0.57373046875 }, { "start": 454.82, "end": 455.0, "word": " to", "probability": 0.7978515625 }, { "start": 455.0, "end": 455.44, "word": " 47", "probability": 0.78271484375 }, { "start": 455.44, "end": 455.86, "word": " cents", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 455.86, "end": 456.14, "word": " because", "probability": 0.97900390625 }, { "start": 456.14, "end": 456.4, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 456.4, "end": 456.5, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 456.5, "end": 456.7, "word": " 2", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 456.7, "end": 457.34, "word": ".55", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 457.34, "end": 457.8, "word": "%", "probability": 0.80615234375 }, { "start": 457.8, "end": 458.4, "word": " coupon", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 458.4, "end": 459.38, "word": " and", "probability": 0.8759765625 }, { "start": 459.38, "end": 459.76, "word": " rates", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 459.76, "end": 459.92, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 459.92, "end": 460.1, "word": " gone", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 460.1, "end": 460.52, "word": " up.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 460.82, "end": 460.86, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 460.86, "end": 461.0, "word": " that", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 461.0, "end": 461.3, "word": " bond's", "probability": 0.968017578125 } ] }, { "start": 461.3, "end": 465.86, "text": "worth a lot less. So the point is, if you buy something like that, what would you rather own?", "avg_logprob": -0.09187199182521838, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 461.3, "end": 461.52, "word": " worth", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 461.52, "end": 461.68, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 461.68, "end": 461.82, "word": " lot", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 461.82, "end": 462.08, "word": " less.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 462.28, "end": 462.54, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 462.54, "end": 462.64, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 462.64, "end": 462.88, "word": " point", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 462.88, "end": 463.06, "word": " is,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 463.16, "end": 463.22, "word": " if", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 463.22, "end": 463.32, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 463.32, "end": 463.62, "word": " buy", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 463.62, "end": 464.0, "word": " something", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 464.0, "end": 464.26, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 464.26, "end": 464.52, "word": " that,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 464.88, "end": 465.18, "word": " what", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 465.18, "end": 465.3, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 465.3, "end": 465.38, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 465.38, "end": 465.6, "word": " rather", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 465.6, "end": 465.86, "word": " own?", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 466.0, "end": 471.9, "text": "Apple equity at 10 times sales, right? $5 trillion market cap. It's like brain debt to", "avg_logprob": -0.09187199182521838, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 466.0, "end": 466.3, "word": " Apple", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 466.3, "end": 466.68, "word": " equity", "probability": 0.94287109375 }, { "start": 466.68, "end": 466.88, "word": " at", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 466.88, "end": 467.06, "word": " 10", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 467.06, "end": 467.4, "word": " times", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 467.4, "end": 467.9, "word": " sales,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 468.36, "end": 468.46, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.939453125 }, { "start": 468.64, "end": 469.04, "word": " $5", "probability": 0.968017578125 }, { "start": 469.04, "end": 469.36, "word": " trillion", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 469.36, "end": 470.0, "word": " market", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 470.0, "end": 470.44, "word": " cap.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 470.62, "end": 470.94, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 470.94, "end": 471.06, "word": " like", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 471.06, "end": 471.46, "word": " brain", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 471.46, "end": 471.74, "word": " debt", "probability": 0.984375 }, { "start": 471.74, "end": 471.9, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 471.9, "end": 478.64, "text": "buy that thing here. Whereas you can buy the bond that's trading at 47 cents. It's paying 2.55%,", "avg_logprob": -0.09187199182521838, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 471.9, "end": 472.12, "word": " buy", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 472.12, "end": 472.36, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 472.36, "end": 472.56, "word": " thing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 472.56, "end": 472.8, "word": " here.", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 473.06, "end": 473.48, "word": " Whereas", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 473.48, "end": 473.6, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 473.6, "end": 473.7, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 473.7, "end": 473.82, "word": " buy", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 473.82, "end": 473.94, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 473.94, "end": 474.48, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 474.48, "end": 475.2, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.990478515625 }, { "start": 475.2, "end": 475.48, "word": " trading", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 475.48, "end": 475.62, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 475.62, "end": 476.04, "word": " 47", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 476.04, "end": 476.68, "word": " cents.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 476.84, "end": 477.22, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 477.22, "end": 477.46, "word": " paying", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 477.46, "end": 477.68, "word": " 2", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 477.68, "end": 478.64, "word": ".55%,", "probability": 0.9156901041666666 } ] }, { "start": 478.64, "end": 484.84, "text": "but your actual yield's much better than that. But guess what? If the 30-year treasury for some", "avg_logprob": -0.10164222037609742, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 478.64, "end": 479.5, "word": " but", "probability": 0.71240234375 }, { "start": 479.5, "end": 479.86, "word": " your", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 479.86, "end": 480.26, "word": " actual", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 480.26, "end": 480.6, "word": " yield's", "probability": 0.722412109375 }, { "start": 480.6, "end": 480.94, "word": " much", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 480.94, "end": 481.22, "word": " better", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 481.22, "end": 481.44, "word": " than", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 481.44, "end": 481.64, "word": " that.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 481.74, "end": 481.82, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 481.82, "end": 482.02, "word": " guess", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 482.02, "end": 482.28, "word": " what?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 482.64, "end": 482.98, "word": " If", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 482.98, "end": 483.22, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 483.22, "end": 483.52, "word": " 30", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 483.52, "end": 483.72, "word": "-year", "probability": 0.978515625 }, { "start": 483.72, "end": 484.12, "word": " treasury", "probability": 0.63671875 }, { "start": 484.12, "end": 484.5, "word": " for", "probability": 0.475341796875 }, { "start": 484.5, "end": 484.84, "word": " some", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 484.84, "end": 491.22, "text": "reason and a recession goes back to 4%, that Apple bond's going to be worth about 72, 73.", "avg_logprob": -0.10164222037609742, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 484.84, "end": 485.26, "word": " reason", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 485.26, "end": 485.46, "word": " and", "probability": 0.409912109375 }, { "start": 485.46, "end": 485.56, "word": " a", "probability": 0.94970703125 }, { "start": 485.56, "end": 485.9, "word": " recession", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 485.9, "end": 486.16, "word": " goes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 486.16, "end": 486.38, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 486.38, "end": 486.52, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 486.52, "end": 487.12, "word": " 4%,", "probability": 0.996337890625 }, { "start": 487.12, "end": 488.44, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.44, "end": 488.74, "word": " Apple", "probability": 0.9765625 }, { "start": 488.74, "end": 489.06, "word": " bond's", "probability": 0.961669921875 }, { "start": 489.06, "end": 489.16, "word": " going", "probability": 0.77099609375 }, { "start": 489.16, "end": 489.22, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.22, "end": 489.32, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.32, "end": 489.6, "word": " worth", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.6, "end": 489.98, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.98, "end": 490.6, "word": " 72,", "probability": 0.91796875 }, { "start": 490.84, "end": 491.22, "word": " 73.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 491.52, "end": 497.14, "text": "And the bottom line for people watching us right now, that's 18% a year if that happens", "avg_logprob": -0.10164222037609742, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 491.52, "end": 491.86, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 491.86, "end": 491.98, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 491.98, "end": 492.22, "word": " bottom", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 492.22, "end": 492.48, "word": " line", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 492.48, "end": 492.6, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 492.6, "end": 492.82, "word": " people", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 492.82, "end": 493.14, "word": " watching", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.14, "end": 493.32, "word": " us", "probability": 0.95556640625 }, { "start": 493.32, "end": 493.48, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.48, "end": 493.68, "word": " now,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.8, "end": 493.98, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.98, "end": 494.66, "word": " 18", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 494.66, "end": 495.1, "word": "%", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 495.1, "end": 495.5, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 495.5, "end": 495.9, "word": " year", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 495.9, "end": 496.4, "word": " if", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 496.4, "end": 496.58, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 496.58, "end": 497.14, "word": " happens", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 497.14, "end": 504.04, "text": "in the next three years. So it's like the 80s here, Maggie. Bonds are starting to offer equity", "avg_logprob": -0.10164222037609742, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 497.14, "end": 497.7, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 497.7, "end": 497.8, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 497.8, "end": 498.02, "word": " next", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 498.02, "end": 498.28, "word": " three", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 498.28, "end": 498.6, "word": " years.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 498.9, "end": 499.3, "word": " So", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 499.3, "end": 500.2, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.990966796875 }, { "start": 500.2, "end": 500.48, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 500.48, "end": 500.66, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 500.66, "end": 501.1, "word": " 80s", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 501.1, "end": 501.26, "word": " here,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 501.38, "end": 501.6, "word": " Maggie.", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 501.86, "end": 502.4, "word": " Bonds", "probability": 0.998291015625 }, { "start": 502.4, "end": 502.56, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 502.56, "end": 502.84, "word": " starting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 502.84, "end": 503.0, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 503.0, "end": 503.4, "word": " offer", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 503.4, "end": 504.04, "word": " equity", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 504.04, "end": 512.08, "text": "like returns because they've crashed like it's 1929. So this is the smart trade, the smart money", "avg_logprob": -0.09326840998375252, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 504.04, "end": 504.4, "word": " like", "probability": 0.7333984375 }, { "start": 504.4, "end": 505.08, "word": " returns", "probability": 0.97900390625 }, { "start": 505.08, "end": 505.86, "word": " because", "probability": 0.845703125 }, { "start": 505.86, "end": 506.22, "word": " they've", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 506.22, "end": 506.92, "word": " crashed", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 506.92, "end": 507.52, "word": " like", "probability": 0.931640625 }, { "start": 507.52, "end": 507.72, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 507.72, "end": 508.48, "word": " 1929.", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 509.28, "end": 509.82, "word": " So", "probability": 0.6298828125 }, { "start": 509.82, "end": 510.38, "word": " this", "probability": 0.90869140625 }, { "start": 510.38, "end": 510.6, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 510.6, "end": 510.78, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 510.78, "end": 511.1, "word": " smart", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 511.1, "end": 511.44, "word": " trade,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 511.62, "end": 511.62, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 511.62, "end": 511.86, "word": " smart", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 511.86, "end": 512.08, "word": " money", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 512.08, "end": 518.84, "text": "for you is everyone opportunistically looking for trades that will work if interest rates go down.", "avg_logprob": -0.09326840998375252, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 512.08, "end": 512.28, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 512.28, "end": 512.54, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 512.54, "end": 512.84, "word": " is", "probability": 0.3134765625 }, { "start": 512.84, "end": 513.4, "word": " everyone", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 513.4, "end": 514.78, "word": " opportunistically", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 514.78, "end": 515.28, "word": " looking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 515.28, "end": 515.82, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 515.82, "end": 516.54, "word": " trades", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 516.54, "end": 516.74, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 516.74, "end": 516.9, "word": " will", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 516.9, "end": 517.36, "word": " work", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 517.36, "end": 517.8, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 517.8, "end": 518.12, "word": " interest", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 518.12, "end": 518.36, "word": " rates", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 518.36, "end": 518.56, "word": " go", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 518.56, "end": 518.84, "word": " down.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 519.18, "end": 524.36, "text": "Right. And another one, I mean, let me just look at, think about Nike, Maggie, right? Think about", "avg_logprob": -0.09326840998375252, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 519.18, "end": 519.32, "word": " Right.", "probability": 0.97412109375 }, { "start": 519.96, "end": 520.14, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 520.14, "end": 520.58, "word": " another", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 520.58, "end": 520.8, "word": " one,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 521.18, "end": 521.2, "word": " I", "probability": 0.98779296875 }, { "start": 521.2, "end": 521.32, "word": " mean,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 521.4, "end": 521.44, "word": " let", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 521.44, "end": 521.54, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 521.54, "end": 521.7, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 521.7, "end": 521.88, "word": " look", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 521.88, "end": 522.22, "word": " at,", "probability": 0.94970703125 }, { "start": 522.36, "end": 522.92, "word": " think", "probability": 0.98779296875 }, { "start": 522.92, "end": 523.1, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 523.1, "end": 523.48, "word": " Nike,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 523.76, "end": 523.78, "word": " Maggie,", "probability": 0.497314453125 }, { "start": 523.94, "end": 523.98, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 524.08, "end": 524.18, "word": " Think", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 524.18, "end": 524.36, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 524.36, "end": 534.16, "text": "nike uh you have you have um the olympics in 2028 right this is nike now uh almost 75 80 off", "avg_logprob": -0.08233172895434575, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 524.36, "end": 524.64, "word": " nike", "probability": 0.523651123046875 }, { "start": 524.64, "end": 525.54, "word": " uh", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 525.54, "end": 525.86, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 525.86, 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530.78, "end": 531.72, "word": " uh", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 531.72, "end": 532.32, "word": " almost", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.32, "end": 533.24, "word": " 75", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 533.24, "end": 533.6, "word": " 80", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 533.6, "end": 534.16, "word": " off", "probability": 0.9326171875 } ] }, { "start": 534.16, "end": 541.74, "text": "you've got free cash flow at nike near 3 billion over the next year 51 billion market cap and guess", "avg_logprob": -0.08233172895434575, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 534.16, "end": 535.14, "word": " you've", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 535.14, "end": 535.28, "word": " got", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 535.28, "end": 535.54, "word": " free", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 535.54, "end": 535.98, "word": " cash", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 535.98, "end": 536.22, "word": " flow", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { 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540.78, "word": " cap", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 540.78, "end": 541.52, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 541.52, "end": 541.74, "word": " guess", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 541.74, "end": 550.2, "text": "what in the last week 360 million shares traded and the float is 1.1 billion okay 1.1 billion", "avg_logprob": -0.08233172895434575, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 541.74, "end": 542.04, "word": " what", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 542.04, "end": 542.26, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 542.26, "end": 542.34, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 542.34, "end": 542.62, "word": " last", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 542.62, "end": 542.9, "word": " week", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 542.9, "end": 543.56, "word": " 360", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 543.56, "end": 544.64, "word": " million", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 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So 360. 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It's like Exxon Mobil in November of 21. Think about that capitulation. 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We're talking like Category 5 storm as in a hurricane. 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You do that every day of the week and twice on Sunday.", "avg_logprob": -0.0892949350609267, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 578.46, "end": 579.08, "word": " month", "probability": 0.90380859375 }, { "start": 579.08, "end": 579.48, "word": " moving", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 579.48, "end": 579.92, "word": " average.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 580.78, "end": 581.22, "word": " You", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 581.22, "end": 581.38, "word": " do", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 581.38, "end": 581.6, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 581.6, "end": 581.96, "word": " every", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 581.96, "end": 582.1, "word": " day", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 582.1, "end": 582.24, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 582.24, "end": 582.3, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 582.3, "end": 582.5, "word": " week", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 582.5, "end": 582.64, "word": " and", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 582.64, "end": 582.88, "word": " twice", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 582.88, "end": 583.06, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 583.06, "end": 583.38, "word": " Sunday.", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 583.6, "end": 587.98, "text": "It's funny, Larry, because you're the author of the Bear Traps Report, but this is like a really", "avg_logprob": -0.0892949350609267, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 583.6, "end": 583.96, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 583.96, "end": 584.14, "word": " funny,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 584.32, "end": 584.46, "word": " Larry,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 584.54, "end": 584.66, "word": " because", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 584.66, "end": 585.04, "word": " you're", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 585.04, "end": 585.14, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 585.14, "end": 585.36, "word": " author", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 585.36, "end": 585.48, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 585.48, "end": 585.58, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8759765625 }, { "start": 585.58, "end": 585.8, "word": " Bear", "probability": 0.759765625 }, { "start": 585.8, "end": 586.22, "word": " Traps", "probability": 0.9853515625 }, { "start": 586.22, "end": 586.5, "word": " Report,", "probability": 0.65087890625 }, { "start": 586.5, "end": 587.08, "word": " but", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 587.08, "end": 587.5, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 587.5, "end": 587.62, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 587.62, "end": 587.72, "word": " like", "probability": 0.59912109375 }, { "start": 587.72, "end": 587.8, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 587.8, "end": 587.98, "word": " really", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 587.98, "end": 596.18, "text": "bullish conversation about parts of the market that you think are grossly mispriced.", "avg_logprob": -0.0892949350609267, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 587.98, "end": 588.56, "word": " bullish", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 588.56, "end": 589.9, "word": " conversation", "probability": 0.81494140625 }, { "start": 589.9, "end": 591.04, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 591.04, "end": 591.76, "word": " parts", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 591.76, "end": 591.86, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 591.86, "end": 591.94, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 591.94, "end": 592.28, "word": " market", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 592.28, "end": 592.82, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 592.82, "end": 593.18, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 593.18, "end": 593.46, "word": " think", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 593.46, "end": 593.8, "word": " are", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 593.8, "end": 595.26, "word": " grossly", "probability": 0.87451171875 }, { "start": 595.26, "end": 596.18, "word": " mispriced.", "probability": 0.9979248046875 } ] }, { "start": 596.3, "end": 602.46, "text": "Yeah. Make no mistake. 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But let's talk a little bit about bond yields, because it seems all of this is centered on yields", "avg_logprob": -0.11243749809265137, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 635.68, "end": 635.78, "word": " it.", "probability": 0.19677734375 }, { "start": 635.92, "end": 636.0, "word": " But", "probability": 0.95361328125 }, { "start": 636.0, "end": 636.46, "word": " let's", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 636.46, "end": 636.6, "word": " talk", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.6, "end": 636.74, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.74, "end": 636.84, "word": " little", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.84, "end": 636.96, "word": " bit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.96, "end": 637.28, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 637.28, "end": 637.82, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 637.82, "end": 638.14, "word": " yields,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 638.18, "end": 638.42, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 638.42, "end": 638.6, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 638.6, "end": 638.86, "word": " seems", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 638.86, "end": 639.28, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 639.28, "end": 639.46, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 639.46, "end": 639.9, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 639.9, "end": 640.5, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 640.5, "end": 640.86, "word": " centered", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 640.86, "end": 641.18, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 641.18, "end": 641.5, "word": " yields", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 641.5, "end": 647.84, "text": "going lower, right? That's the premise, that yields have to flip at some point. So government", "avg_logprob": -0.11243749809265137, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 641.5, "end": 641.78, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 641.78, "end": 642.12, "word": " lower,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 642.74, "end": 642.82, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 642.92, "end": 643.2, "word": " That's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 643.2, "end": 643.3, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 643.3, "end": 643.62, "word": " premise,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 643.76, "end": 643.86, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 643.86, "end": 644.24, "word": " yields", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 644.24, "end": 644.58, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 644.58, "end": 644.92, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 644.92, "end": 645.94, "word": " flip", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 645.94, "end": 646.14, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 646.14, "end": 646.34, "word": " some", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 646.34, "end": 646.7, "word": " point.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 646.88, "end": 647.32, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 647.32, "end": 647.84, "word": " government", "probability": 0.93359375 } ] }, { "start": 647.84, "end": 652.64, "text": "bond yields around the world rising. 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Are we watching a sovereign bond crisis gather steam? There's no question.", "avg_logprob": -0.11243749809265137, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 657.86, "end": 658.06, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 658.06, "end": 658.34, "word": " 30", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 658.34, "end": 658.6, "word": "-year.", "probability": 0.8515625 }, { "start": 659.26, "end": 659.74, "word": " Are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 659.74, "end": 660.02, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.02, "end": 660.42, "word": " watching", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.42, "end": 660.62, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.62, "end": 661.0, "word": " sovereign", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 661.0, "end": 661.36, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 661.36, "end": 661.86, "word": " crisis", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 661.86, "end": 662.24, "word": " gather", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 662.24, "end": 662.66, "word": " steam?", 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really", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 676.14, "end": 676.66, "word": " nasty", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 676.66, "end": 677.34, "word": " situation", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 677.34, "end": 677.96, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 677.96, "end": 678.08, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 678.08, "end": 678.38, "word": " global", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 678.38, "end": 678.7, "word": " bond", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 678.7, "end": 679.14, "word": " market.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 679.92, "end": 685.82, "text": "That's probably going to trigger that kind of crisis in the index, the S&P, in the next couple of months.", "avg_logprob": -0.1740345559953674, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 679.92, "end": 680.36, "word": " That's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 680.36, "end": 680.78, "word": " probably", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 680.78, "end": 680.94, "word": " going", 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{ "start": 756.92, "end": 762.82, "text": "about my banking uh deposit and muse is going to go out there and say hey hey hello is anybody home", "avg_logprob": -0.06542968660317085, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 756.92, "end": 757.1, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 757.1, "end": 757.28, "word": " my", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 757.28, "end": 757.7, "word": " banking", "probability": 0.9619140625 }, { "start": 757.7, "end": 757.94, "word": " uh", "probability": 0.91943359375 }, { "start": 757.94, "end": 758.42, "word": " deposit", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 758.42, "end": 758.86, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 758.86, "end": 759.08, "word": " muse", "probability": 0.7431640625 }, { "start": 759.08, "end": 759.24, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 759.24, "end": 759.34, "word": " going", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 759.34, "end": 759.4, "word": " to", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { 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here", "avg_logprob": -0.06542968660317085, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 762.82, "end": 763.3, "word": " why", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 763.3, "end": 763.62, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 763.62, "end": 763.8, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 763.8, "end": 764.16, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 764.16, "end": 764.48, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8818359375 }, { "start": 764.48, "end": 764.96, "word": " zero", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 764.96, "end": 765.34, "word": " interest", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 765.34, "end": 765.66, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 765.66, "end": 766.28, "word": " bank", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 766.28, "end": 766.66, "word": " account", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 766.66, "end": 766.88, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 766.88, "end": 767.02, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 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"probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 780.92, "end": 781.18, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 781.18, "end": 781.34, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 781.34, "end": 781.6, "word": " because", "probability": 0.85302734375 }, { "start": 781.6, "end": 782.9, "word": " they're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 782.9, "end": 783.14, "word": " sitting", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 783.14, "end": 783.36, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 783.36, "end": 783.52, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 783.52, "end": 783.78, "word": " money.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 783.9, "end": 787.02, "text": "They're taking in the $200 billion, $300 billion.", "avg_logprob": -0.181250003973643, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 783.9, "end": 784.02, "word": " They're", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 784.02, "end": 784.24, "word": " taking", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 784.24, "end": 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"end": 814.8, "text": "Who? I've been hearing more and more. And of course, news just rolled out. So this is just the beginning of us sort of understanding what a sort of AI assisted, you know, search will look like and what that means. Who benefits from that or what companies benefit from that?", "avg_logprob": -0.10223388543818146, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 795.8, "end": 796.28, "word": " Who?", "probability": 0.70263671875 }, { "start": 796.58, "end": 797.14, "word": " I've", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 797.14, "end": 797.28, "word": " been", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 797.28, "end": 797.58, "word": " hearing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 797.58, "end": 797.96, "word": " more", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 797.96, "end": 798.06, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 798.06, "end": 798.4, "word": " more.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 798.66, "end": 798.92, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 798.92, "end": 799.06, "word": " of", "probability": 0.861328125 }, { "start": 799.06, "end": 799.32, "word": " course,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 800.06, "end": 800.5, "word": " news", "probability": 0.66650390625 }, { "start": 800.5, "end": 800.78, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 800.78, "end": 801.06, "word": " rolled", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 801.06, "end": 801.34, "word": " out.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 801.48, "end": 801.52, "word": " So", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 801.52, "end": 801.68, "word": " this", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 801.68, "end": 801.84, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 801.84, "end": 802.28, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 802.28, "end": 802.56, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 802.56, "end": 802.94, "word": " beginning", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 802.94, "end": 803.32, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 803.32, "end": 803.52, "word": " us", "probability": 0.84765625 }, { "start": 803.52, "end": 803.68, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.94384765625 }, { "start": 803.68, "end": 803.78, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 803.78, "end": 804.42, "word": " understanding", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 804.42, "end": 804.74, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 804.74, "end": 804.86, "word": " a", "probability": 0.9755859375 }, { "start": 804.86, "end": 805.0, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 805.0, "end": 805.1, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 805.1, "end": 805.48, "word": " AI", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 805.48, "end": 806.16, "word": " assisted,", "probability": 0.595703125 }, { "start": 806.2, "end": 807.06, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 807.06, "end": 807.12, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 807.26, "end": 807.5, "word": " search", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 807.5, "end": 807.8, "word": " will", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 807.8, "end": 808.18, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 808.18, "end": 808.38, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 808.38, "end": 808.5, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 808.5, "end": 808.64, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 808.64, "end": 808.84, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 808.84, "end": 809.2, "word": " means.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 809.92, "end": 810.48, "word": " Who", "probability": 0.98876953125 }, { "start": 810.48, "end": 811.96, "word": " benefits", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 811.96, "end": 812.28, "word": " from", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 812.28, "end": 812.56, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 812.56, "end": 813.04, "word": " or", "probability": 0.62548828125 }, { "start": 813.04, "end": 813.42, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 813.42, "end": 813.94, "word": " companies", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 813.94, "end": 814.36, "word": " benefit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 814.36, "end": 814.6, "word": " from", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 814.6, "end": 814.8, "word": " that?", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 814.8, "end": 837.98, "text": "Well, first of all, let's talk about just for a second. Let's talk about Mr. Zuckerberg. The guy incinerated $300 billion on the metaverse. He changed the name of the company to Meta from Facebook. It's hilarious. He incinerated $300 billion. Now, he's created a product. Think about it. 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So again, I think where you put things in terms of asset allocation depends on how you", "avg_logprob": -0.043505323375319385, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1081.38, "end": 1081.78, "word": " box", "probability": 0.96240234375 }, { "start": 1081.78, "end": 1082.1, "word": " below.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1083.54, "end": 1083.98, "word": " So", "probability": 0.485107421875 }, { "start": 1083.98, "end": 1084.54, "word": " again,", "probability": 0.8662109375 }, { "start": 1084.78, "end": 1085.42, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1085.42, "end": 1085.58, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1085.58, "end": 1085.86, "word": " where", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1085.86, "end": 1086.1, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1086.1, "end": 1086.36, "word": " put", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1086.36, "end": 1086.72, "word": " things", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1086.72, "end": 1087.62, "word": " in", "probability": 0.341064453125 }, { "start": 1087.62, "end": 1088.08, "word": " terms", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1088.08, "end": 1088.24, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1088.24, "end": 1088.5, "word": " asset", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1088.5, "end": 1089.04, "word": " allocation", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1089.04, "end": 1089.6, "word": " depends", "probability": 0.94189453125 }, { "start": 1089.6, "end": 1089.92, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1089.92, "end": 1090.08, "word": " how", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1090.08, "end": 1090.24, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1090.24, "end": 1094.82, "text": "see this playing out. 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What tells you that we are in a situation that's like maybe the 1980s where", "avg_logprob": -0.043505323375319385, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1094.82, "end": 1095.24, "word": " important.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1097.46, "end": 1097.98, "word": " What", "probability": 0.93505859375 }, { "start": 1097.98, "end": 1098.7, "word": " tells", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1098.7, "end": 1098.9, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1098.9, "end": 1099.06, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1099.06, "end": 1099.22, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1099.22, "end": 1099.38, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1099.38, "end": 1099.52, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1099.52, "end": 1099.6, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1099.6, "end": 1100.02, "word": " situation", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1100.02, "end": 1100.4, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1100.4, "end": 1100.62, "word": " like", "probability": 0.96875 }, { "start": 1100.62, "end": 1100.92, "word": " maybe", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1100.92, "end": 1101.08, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1101.08, "end": 1101.84, "word": " 1980s", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1101.84, "end": 1101.98, "word": " where", "probability": 0.92626953125 } ] }, { "start": 1101.98, "end": 1109.48, "text": "you have this supernova economy and then you're going to see some sort of recession or you're", "avg_logprob": -0.043505323375319385, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1101.98, "end": 1102.08, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1102.08, "end": 1102.26, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1102.26, "end": 1102.44, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1102.44, "end": 1102.98, "word": " supernova", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1102.98, "end": 1103.6, "word": " economy", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1103.6, "end": 1104.3, "word": " and", "probability": 0.806640625 }, { "start": 1104.3, "end": 1104.58, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1104.58, "end": 1105.4, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1105.4, "end": 1105.46, "word": " going", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 1105.46, "end": 1105.54, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1105.54, "end": 1105.74, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1105.74, "end": 1105.96, "word": " some", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1105.96, "end": 1106.12, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 1106.12, "end": 1106.32, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1106.32, "end": 1108.16, "word": " recession", "probability": 0.94775390625 }, { "start": 1108.16, "end": 1108.88, "word": " or", "probability": 0.9873046875 }, { "start": 1108.88, "end": 1109.48, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1109.48, "end": 1115.98, "text": "going to see a correction and then you're going to have policymakers step in. Why? Is that how", "avg_logprob": -0.0457175907989343, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1109.48, "end": 1109.56, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9150390625 }, { "start": 1109.56, "end": 1109.64, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1109.64, "end": 1109.88, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1109.88, "end": 1110.28, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1110.28, "end": 1110.9, "word": " correction", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1110.9, "end": 1111.4, "word": " and", "probability": 0.5537109375 }, { "start": 1111.4, "end": 1111.52, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1111.52, "end": 1111.66, "word": " you're", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1111.66, "end": 1111.72, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1111.72, "end": 1111.78, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1111.78, "end": 1111.98, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1111.98, "end": 1112.46, "word": " policymakers", "probability": 0.94580078125 }, { "start": 1112.46, "end": 1112.96, "word": " step", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1112.96, "end": 1113.3, "word": " in.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1113.96, "end": 1114.16, "word": " Why?", "probability": 0.7646484375 }, { "start": 1114.86, "end": 1115.26, "word": " Is", "probability": 0.94921875 }, { "start": 1115.26, "end": 1115.82, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9873046875 }, { "start": 1115.82, "end": 1115.98, "word": " how", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 1115.98, "end": 1121.78, "text": "you see it? Correct me if I'm wrong. Yeah. Well, never forget the rule of 72. 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And so, and that's in a tax deferred account, of course. 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}, { "start": 1437.54, "end": 1441.26, "text": "It kind of feels like getting through the day anymore, Larry, with all the headlines.", "avg_logprob": -0.19479167179928886, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1437.54, "end": 1437.58, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 1437.58, "end": 1437.66, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 1437.66, "end": 1437.76, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1437.76, "end": 1437.98, "word": " feels", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1437.98, "end": 1438.16, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1438.16, "end": 1438.4, "word": " getting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1438.4, "end": 1438.68, "word": " through", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1438.68, "end": 1438.86, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1438.86, "end": 1439.4, "word": " day", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1439.4, "end": 1440.16, "word": " anymore,", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { 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Think of stablecoins own T-bills, Bitcoin, and gold, mostly T-bills. 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So you got from 100 billion to 300 billion today, maybe 350. Look at circle equity,", "avg_logprob": -0.10235091825144006, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1615.8, "end": 1616.28, "word": " treasuries.", "probability": 0.9689127604166666 }, { "start": 1616.62, "end": 1617.16, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 1617.16, "end": 1617.24, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1617.24, "end": 1617.34, "word": " got", "probability": 0.76953125 }, { "start": 1617.34, "end": 1617.52, "word": " from", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1617.52, "end": 1617.78, "word": " 100", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1617.78, "end": 1618.08, "word": " billion", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1618.08, "end": 1618.26, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1618.26, "end": 1618.56, "word": " 300", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1618.56, "end": 1618.9, "word": " billion", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1618.9, "end": 1619.16, "word": " today,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1619.28, "end": 1619.4, "word": " maybe", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 1619.4, "end": 1619.82, "word": " 350.", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 1620.14, "end": 1620.46, "word": " Look", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1620.46, "end": 1620.62, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1620.62, "end": 1621.0, "word": " circle", "probability": 0.63525390625 }, { "start": 1621.0, "end": 1621.46, "word": " equity,", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 1621.66, "end": 1627.86, "text": "right? We did a trade alert at 62 this year. It's up into the 90s. 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I think stable", "avg_logprob": -0.04359653911420277, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1627.86, "end": 1628.42, "word": " Washington,", "probability": 0.712890625 }, { "start": 1629.24, "end": 1629.52, "word": " they're", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 1629.52, "end": 1629.56, "word": " going", "probability": 0.94287109375 }, { "start": 1629.56, "end": 1629.66, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1629.66, "end": 1629.92, "word": " basically", "probability": 0.98291015625 }, { "start": 1629.92, "end": 1630.32, "word": " start", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1630.32, "end": 1630.5, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1630.5, "end": 1631.0, "word": " force", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1631.0, "end": 1631.4, "word": " money", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1631.4, "end": 1631.68, "word": " into", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1631.68, "end": 1632.0, "word": " stable", "probability": 0.97802734375 }, { "start": 1632.0, "end": 1632.34, "word": " coins.", "probability": 0.517578125 }, { "start": 1632.48, "end": 1632.56, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 1632.56, "end": 1632.72, "word": " think", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1632.72, "end": 1633.08, "word": " stable", "probability": 0.99755859375 } ] }, { "start": 1633.08, "end": 1640.36, "text": "coins probably go in the next five years to a trillion, trillion and a half. 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The only way out, Maggie, of a $40 trillion debt hole, there's two", "avg_logprob": -0.08429622086657196, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1689.9, "end": 1690.64, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 1690.64, "end": 1691.56, "word": " $40", "probability": 0.98193359375 }, { "start": 1691.56, "end": 1692.44, "word": " trillion", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 1692.44, "end": 1693.08, "word": " debt", "probability": 0.970703125 }, { "start": 1693.08, "end": 1693.34, "word": " hole.", "probability": 0.9697265625 }, { "start": 1693.46, "end": 1693.56, "word": " The", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1693.56, "end": 1693.88, "word": " only", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1693.88, "end": 1694.08, "word": " way", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1694.08, "end": 1694.36, "word": " out,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1694.46, "end": 1694.68, "word": " Maggie,", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 1695.0, "end": 1695.12, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1695.12, "end": 1695.24, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1695.24, "end": 1695.56, "word": " $40", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1695.56, "end": 1695.96, "word": " trillion", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1695.96, "end": 1696.34, "word": " debt", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 1696.34, "end": 1696.6, "word": " hole,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1696.68, "end": 1696.9, "word": " there's", "probability": 0.9814453125 }, { "start": 1696.9, "end": 1697.02, "word": " two", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 1697.02, "end": 1703.66, "text": "ways. Default or inflate your way out. And that's what we call financial repression. 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First of all, who are they? 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Who are they? Well, let's be clear. 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This is a financial crisis if they don't do it. Because we already saw it. 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Do stable coins change what that bazooka looks like? 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It's a speed bump toward the US. 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We have a bearish dollar chapter. We wrote the book in 2023. 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We wrote it in 22, 23. So we made a great call in dollar. 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They're going to come up with all these types of speed bumps along the way.", "avg_logprob": -0.14667338024704688, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1971.44, "end": 1971.84, "word": " status.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1972.06, "end": 1972.5, "word": " They're", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1972.5, "end": 1972.58, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1972.58, "end": 1972.7, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1972.7, "end": 1972.94, "word": " come", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1972.94, "end": 1973.1, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1973.1, "end": 1973.26, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1973.26, "end": 1973.76, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1973.76, "end": 1973.96, "word": " these", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1973.96, "end": 1974.16, "word": " types", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1974.16, "end": 1974.36, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1974.36, "end": 1974.66, "word": " speed", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1974.66, "end": 1974.94, "word": " bumps", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1974.94, "end": 1975.22, "word": " along", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1975.22, "end": 1975.36, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1975.36, "end": 1975.56, "word": " way.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1975.56, "end": 1997.22, "text": "So why does that mean that hard assets are the trade as opposed to equities? If you're sort of pulling rates down, you're basically creating all this liquidity to keep the whole thing going. Does that just not magnet toward equities? 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But it's hard to sell. I mean, when you have McDonald's and Home Depot down 35%", "avg_logprob": -0.18455430462223585, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2399.08, "end": 2399.24, "word": " Oh,", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 2399.3, "end": 2399.38, "word": " yeah,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2399.44, "end": 2399.56, "word": " yeah.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2399.98, "end": 2400.2, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 2400.2, "end": 2400.68, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.839599609375 }, { "start": 2400.68, "end": 2400.92, "word": " hard", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2400.92, "end": 2401.08, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2401.08, "end": 2401.3, "word": " sell.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2401.54, "end": 2401.7, "word": " I", "probability": 0.89697265625 }, { "start": 2401.7, "end": 2401.84, "word": " mean,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2402.0, "end": 2402.1, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2402.1, "end": 2402.2, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2402.2, "end": 2402.46, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2402.46, "end": 2403.1, "word": " McDonald's", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2403.1, "end": 2403.2, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2403.2, "end": 2403.38, "word": " Home", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2403.38, "end": 2403.64, "word": " Depot", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2403.64, "end": 2403.92, "word": " down", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2403.92, "end": 2404.3, "word": " 35", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2404.3, "end": 2404.76, "word": "%", "probability": 0.67578125 } ] }, { "start": 2405.28, "end": 2411.36, "text": "and Harley Davidson, all these consumer-facing companies, why is Apple at $5 trillion?", "avg_logprob": -0.18455430462223585, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2405.28, "end": 2405.62, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2405.62, "end": 2406.36, "word": " Harley", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2406.36, "end": 2406.82, "word": " Davidson,", "probability": 0.5615234375 }, { "start": 2406.82, "end": 2407.48, "word": " all", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 2407.48, "end": 2407.7, "word": " these", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2407.7, "end": 2408.12, "word": " consumer", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2408.12, "end": 2408.36, "word": "-facing", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 2408.36, "end": 2408.88, "word": " companies,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2409.06, "end": 2409.54, "word": " why", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2409.54, "end": 2409.86, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2409.86, "end": 2410.4, "word": " Apple", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2410.4, "end": 2410.72, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2410.72, "end": 2411.06, "word": " $5", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2411.06, "end": 2411.36, "word": " trillion?", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2411.36, "end": 2417.36, "text": "dollars. So I'm actually seeing people, this is a sophisticated trade, but if you buy the bonds at", "avg_logprob": -0.07329436886401577, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2411.36, "end": 2411.64, "word": " dollars.", "probability": 0.54638671875 }, { "start": 2412.26, "end": 2412.34, "word": " So", "probability": 0.83544921875 }, { "start": 2412.34, "end": 2413.12, "word": " I'm", "probability": 0.905029296875 }, { "start": 2413.12, "end": 2413.34, "word": " actually", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2413.34, "end": 2413.62, "word": " seeing", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2413.62, "end": 2413.9, "word": " people,", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2413.98, "end": 2414.12, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2414.12, "end": 2414.24, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9453125 }, { "start": 2414.24, "end": 2414.42, "word": " a", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 2414.42, "end": 2415.16, "word": " sophisticated", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2415.16, "end": 2415.66, "word": " trade,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2415.76, "end": 2415.88, "word": " but", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 2415.88, "end": 2416.38, "word": " if", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2416.38, "end": 2416.48, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2416.48, "end": 2416.74, "word": " buy", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2416.74, "end": 2416.9, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2416.9, "end": 2417.24, "word": " bonds", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2417.24, "end": 2417.36, "word": " at", "probability": 0.8056640625 } ] }, { "start": 2417.36, "end": 2422.6, "text": "47, you take the coupons, say you put a million bucks in, you get the coupons, maybe that's $30,000", "avg_logprob": -0.07329436886401577, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2417.36, "end": 2417.74, "word": " 47,", "probability": 0.79296875 }, { "start": 2418.22, "end": 2418.44, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2418.44, "end": 2418.62, "word": " take", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2418.62, "end": 2418.78, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2418.78, "end": 2419.2, "word": " coupons,", "probability": 0.941650390625 }, { "start": 2419.28, "end": 2419.36, "word": " say", "probability": 0.9638671875 }, { "start": 2419.36, "end": 2419.44, "word": " you", "probability": 0.97412109375 }, { "start": 2419.44, "end": 2419.5, "word": " put", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2419.5, "end": 2419.58, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 2419.58, "end": 2419.76, "word": " million", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2419.76, "end": 2419.98, "word": " bucks", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2419.98, "end": 2420.1, "word": " in,", "probability": 0.95361328125 }, { "start": 2420.16, "end": 2420.28, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2420.28, "end": 2420.4, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2420.4, "end": 2420.56, "word": " the", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2420.56, "end": 2421.12, "word": " coupons,", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2421.48, "end": 2421.72, "word": " maybe", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2421.72, "end": 2421.94, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2421.94, "end": 2422.18, "word": " $30", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2422.18, "end": 2422.6, "word": ",000", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2422.6, "end": 2429.7, "text": "on a million. And you buy like two-year puts on the Apple equity. So think about this. So if the", "avg_logprob": -0.07329436886401577, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2422.6, "end": 2423.38, "word": " on", "probability": 0.91650390625 }, { "start": 2423.38, "end": 2423.48, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2423.48, "end": 2423.72, "word": " million.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2424.08, "end": 2424.38, "word": " And", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2424.38, "end": 2424.48, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2424.48, "end": 2424.8, "word": " buy", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2424.8, "end": 2425.3, "word": " like", "probability": 0.6484375 }, { "start": 2425.3, "end": 2426.1, "word": " two", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2426.1, "end": 2426.3, "word": "-year", "probability": 0.761474609375 }, { "start": 2426.3, "end": 2426.58, "word": " puts", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2426.58, "end": 2426.74, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2426.74, "end": 2426.86, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2426.86, "end": 2427.16, "word": " Apple", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 2427.16, "end": 2427.48, "word": " equity.", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2427.98, "end": 2428.44, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2428.44, "end": 2428.6, "word": " think", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 2428.6, "end": 2428.76, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2428.76, "end": 2428.98, "word": " this.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2429.2, "end": 2429.44, "word": " So", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 2429.44, "end": 2429.58, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 2429.58, "end": 2429.7, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2429.7, "end": 2435.42, "text": "bonds are at 47, the only way that bond goes to 40 is if interest rates go up another one or two", "avg_logprob": -0.07329436886401577, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2429.7, "end": 2429.96, "word": " bonds", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2429.96, "end": 2430.06, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2430.06, "end": 2430.18, "word": " at", "probability": 0.51806640625 }, { "start": 2430.18, "end": 2430.58, "word": " 47,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2430.84, "end": 2431.14, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2431.14, "end": 2431.46, "word": " only", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2431.46, "end": 2431.64, "word": " way", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2431.64, "end": 2431.82, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2431.82, "end": 2432.26, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2432.26, "end": 2432.58, "word": " goes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2432.58, "end": 2432.72, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2432.72, "end": 2433.06, "word": " 40", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2433.06, "end": 2433.74, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 2433.74, "end": 2433.88, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2433.88, "end": 2434.08, "word": " interest", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2434.08, "end": 2434.34, "word": " rates", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2434.34, "end": 2434.48, "word": " go", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2434.48, "end": 2434.6, "word": " up", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2434.6, "end": 2434.88, "word": " another", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2434.88, "end": 2435.18, "word": " one", "probability": 0.9208984375 }, { "start": 2435.18, "end": 2435.28, "word": " or", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2435.28, "end": 2435.42, "word": " two", "probability": 0.19921875 } ] }, { "start": 2435.42, "end": 2440.9, "text": "percent. That would decimate the economy. That would kill Apple stock, right? Because they sell", "avg_logprob": -0.07329436886401577, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2435.42, "end": 2435.78, "word": " percent.", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2436.12, "end": 2436.44, "word": " That", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2436.44, "end": 2436.58, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2436.58, "end": 2436.98, "word": " decimate", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2436.98, "end": 2437.12, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2437.12, "end": 2437.48, "word": " economy.", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2437.48, "end": 2437.94, "word": " That", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2437.94, "end": 2438.12, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2438.12, "end": 2438.58, "word": " kill", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2438.58, "end": 2438.92, "word": " Apple", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 2438.92, "end": 2439.28, "word": " stock,", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2439.6, "end": 2439.74, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.97119140625 }, { "start": 2440.0, "end": 2440.46, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2440.46, "end": 2440.64, "word": " they", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2440.64, "end": 2440.9, "word": " sell", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 2440.9, "end": 2447.48, "text": "to consumers. So that's the type of trade where bond volatility is through the roof. You're", "avg_logprob": -0.054235537190082644, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2440.9, "end": 2441.04, "word": " to", "probability": 0.97900390625 }, { "start": 2441.04, "end": 2441.46, "word": " consumers.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2442.04, "end": 2442.12, "word": " So", "probability": 0.8193359375 }, { "start": 2442.12, "end": 2443.52, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.978515625 }, { "start": 2443.52, "end": 2443.66, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2443.66, "end": 2443.88, "word": " type", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2443.88, "end": 2444.08, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2444.08, "end": 2444.4, "word": " trade", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2444.4, "end": 2444.76, "word": " where", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2444.76, "end": 2445.66, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2445.66, "end": 2446.24, "word": " volatility", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2446.24, "end": 2446.7, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2446.7, "end": 2446.96, "word": " through", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2446.96, "end": 2447.1, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2447.1, "end": 2447.26, "word": " roof.", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2447.4, "end": 2447.48, "word": " You're", "probability": 0.99755859375 } ] }, { "start": 2447.48, "end": 2453.88, "text": "crashing over here. Stock volatility is low and high prices. 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And so that's why people are starting to look at bonds. 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This is why it's not your passive game anymore, because that is a much more sort", "avg_logprob": -0.054235537190082644, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2460.08, "end": 2460.42, "word": " interesting.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2460.58, "end": 2460.7, "word": " This", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2460.7, "end": 2460.82, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2460.82, "end": 2461.0, "word": " why", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2461.0, "end": 2461.24, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2461.24, "end": 2461.46, "word": " not", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2461.46, "end": 2462.04, "word": " your", "probability": 0.9736328125 }, { "start": 2462.04, "end": 2462.48, "word": " passive", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2462.48, "end": 2462.78, "word": " game", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2462.78, "end": 2463.16, "word": " anymore,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2463.16, "end": 2463.58, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2463.58, "end": 2463.84, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2463.84, "end": 2464.02, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2464.02, "end": 2464.18, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2464.18, "end": 2464.4, "word": " much", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2464.4, "end": 2464.66, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2464.66, "end": 2464.88, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.61376953125 } ] }, { "start": 2464.88, "end": 2470.04, "text": "of active view of what's going on. 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And let's face it, this is still what an awful lot of people do. And I hear you bullish on", "avg_logprob": -0.07972935407555529, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2470.04, "end": 2470.2, "word": " a", "probability": 0.8154296875 }, { "start": 2470.2, "end": 2470.44, "word": " wheel.", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2470.6, "end": 2470.64, "word": " And", "probability": 0.8984375 }, { "start": 2470.64, "end": 2470.82, "word": " let's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2470.82, "end": 2471.0, "word": " face", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2471.0, "end": 2471.16, "word": " it,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2471.24, "end": 2471.36, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2471.36, "end": 2471.46, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2471.46, "end": 2471.68, "word": " still", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2471.68, "end": 2471.86, "word": " what", "probability": 0.9755859375 }, { "start": 2471.86, "end": 2472.0, "word": " an", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2472.0, "end": 2472.16, "word": " awful", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2472.16, "end": 2472.34, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2472.34, "end": 2472.42, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2472.42, "end": 2472.64, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2472.64, "end": 2472.92, "word": " do.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2473.02, "end": 2473.08, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 2473.08, "end": 2473.2, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2473.2, "end": 2473.46, "word": " hear", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2473.46, "end": 2473.68, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2473.68, "end": 2474.12, "word": " bullish", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2474.12, "end": 2474.4, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2474.4, "end": 2479.4, "text": "hard assets. A lot of people interested in commodities. We've been talking a lot with", "avg_logprob": -0.07972935407555529, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2474.4, "end": 2474.66, "word": " hard", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2474.66, "end": 2475.3, "word": " assets.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2475.68, "end": 2476.14, "word": " A", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2476.14, "end": 2476.36, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2476.36, "end": 2476.5, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2476.5, "end": 2476.7, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2476.7, "end": 2477.08, "word": " interested", "probability": 0.92041015625 }, { "start": 2477.08, "end": 2477.28, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2477.28, "end": 2477.78, "word": " commodities.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2477.96, "end": 2478.42, "word": " We've", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2478.42, "end": 2478.5, "word": " been", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2478.5, "end": 2478.78, "word": " talking", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2478.78, "end": 2479.02, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2479.02, "end": 2479.22, "word": " lot", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2479.22, "end": 2479.4, "word": " with", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2479.4, "end": 2484.9, "text": "our audience about what diversification looks like into real assets. 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So that is a piece of mystery meat. So the first stage of AI is very inflationary because look at Caterpillar. The stock is up 300% in like a year and a half. 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And we talked about stablecoin, and this is something we'll continue to look into because this is a really big change that's coming. I'm not surprised it's all the talk at your idea dinners. What's the trade on stablecoin?", "avg_logprob": -0.12873640941536946, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2628.2, "end": 2628.5, "word": " Yeah.", "probability": 0.8388671875 }, { "start": 2629.44, "end": 2629.96, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 2629.96, "end": 2630.1, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2630.1, "end": 2630.28, "word": " talked", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2630.28, "end": 2630.44, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2630.44, "end": 2631.02, "word": " stablecoin,", "probability": 0.75927734375 }, { "start": 2631.08, "end": 2631.16, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2631.16, "end": 2631.3, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2631.3, "end": 2631.42, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2631.42, "end": 2631.68, "word": " something", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2631.68, "end": 2631.9, "word": " we'll", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2631.9, "end": 2632.24, 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"speakers_with_asr_words": [ "Speaker 1", "Speaker 2" ], "speakers_without_asr_words": [], "untranscribed_speaker_turns": [] }, "speaker_name_provenance": "Anonymous IDs within this video; names not inferred" }