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Speaker 1: hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptiverse today we're going to talk

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Speaker 1: about bitcoin and we're going to discuss the extreme uncertainty that

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Speaker 1: sits with the market right now if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the

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Speaker 1: channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptiverse

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Speaker 1: premium at into the cryptiverse .com as a reminder we do have the first investing

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Speaker 1: through the cycles conference coming up in just over a month. So make sure you guys get

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Speaker 1: your ticket prices will be going up on November 1st link is in the description below or the

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Speaker 1: pinned comment. Now, right now, you know, I've been sort of tracking Bitcoin for

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Speaker 1: a long time, right? And publicly, I've been talking about it with with you guys since

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Speaker 1: 2019. When I started the YouTube channel, and there are certainly times where uncertainty

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Speaker 1: gets to some pretty high levels and and it feels like it's there's forces

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Speaker 1: pulling Bitcoin in either direction. And in those cases, both the bulls and the bears have

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Speaker 1: a point. And today, I think we find ourselves in a similar situation.

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Speaker 1: But I would argue that uncertainty now is higher for Bitcoin than it has been in

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Speaker 1: the past just because of the forces that are simultaneously pulling on Bitcoin. In

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Speaker 1: one camp, you have the bulls and the bulls have a great argument

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Speaker 1: for Bitcoin right now.

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Speaker 1: The bears are in another camp, but they have some things they can point two as well when it

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Speaker 1: comes to investing we have to all recognize that no one actually knows what's going to

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Speaker 1: happen on on crypto youtube and crypto twitter there's this idea that you know people are

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Speaker 1: going to know for sure what's going to happen and the people that speak the most loudly

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Speaker 1: that speak the the most confidently those are often those people are often given a large

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Speaker 1: platform to sort of voice their their opinions. And no, I've fallen into that as well.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes I get very deterministic about what I think is going to happen. And that has

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Speaker 1: served me well, in some cases, and then in other cases, it has not. And so what I want to

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Speaker 1: do is I want to go through what exactly is going on in the market. So if you're a bull, you

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Speaker 1: could understand the bear, the bear case. And if you're a bear, you can understand the bull

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Speaker 1: case. And what I think is happening right now is we are about at a decision point. I

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Speaker 1: don't think we're going to sit here much longer in the low 80s. We're either going to go up

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Speaker 1: and print a new local high above 87k really, really soon. Or it's going to be a fake

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Speaker 1: breakout and then all the technical indicators break down. So let's go through so that you

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Speaker 1: can understand where we are and why there is so much disagreement. Okay. The

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Speaker 1: bulls, in this case, have a lot going for them. And they've had a lot going for them for a

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Speaker 1: while. From a pure technical perspective, right? If you're just looking at technical

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Speaker 1: analysis and, you know, the RSI, the MACD, there's a lot that they can point to. And one of

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Speaker 1: the simplest things that they can point to is the fact that Bitcoin had a golden cross,

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Speaker 1: right? It had a golden cross, had a correction after the golden cross, and it continued

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Speaker 1: higher. And as it stands right now, it is still holding just above the 50 day moving

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Speaker 1: average. Okay. So everything that Bitcoin has done since the breakout to to 87k

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Speaker 1: could be construed as just a normal correction that is backtesting the prior high. And this

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Speaker 1: would be fairly normal, right? Like you can't, if you're a bear, you can't look at that and

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Speaker 1: say that that's necessarily bearish on its own. It is retesting a prior high. And

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Speaker 1: what you'll notice is that when Bitcoin has previously broken down from sort of like a wick

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Speaker 1: low, that formed a bottom that then yielded a new high. So as it stands

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Speaker 1: right now, that is something that the bulls can point to and say, look,

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Speaker 1: so what if we swept the low? Why can't we just do the same thing we did last time, right?

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Speaker 1: Sweep the low, consolidate over the weekend, you know, potentially, and then head back up

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Speaker 1: by Sunday night. Okay. Now, this is certainly a compelling case. Now, I've,

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm at the point now where if Bitcoin were to break down, it might almost

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Speaker 1: be one of those things where where you have to almost like be careful what you wish for,

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Speaker 1: because obviously going into Q4 and really going in, I mean, in Q3,

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Speaker 1: I said that I thought we were forming a low for Bitcoin at 57K. But

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Speaker 1: what I was not expecting was I was not expecting the rally to take out the prior high. OK,

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Speaker 1: and that kind of messed me up a little bit because it made sense for the low to occur. at

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Speaker 1: around 57k. I mean, in 2018, we had a low at 5700. And we talked a lot about how the

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Speaker 1: structure of the market is very similar in terms of like, you know, a February low in both

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Speaker 1: cases, and then a lower high in May, and then a lower low in the summer. And then you get

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Speaker 1: your your summer rally in q3. And then you get your typical q4 dump. And that was kind of

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Speaker 1: what I said was the most likely the outcome and um obviously with bitcoin putting in a

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Speaker 1: higher high that has called things into question and has made me a little bit less

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Speaker 1: deterministic so i've you know i really want to understand what the bull case is and so one

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Speaker 1: of the things you can look towards is you can say look this is a normal stair -stepping

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Speaker 1: pattern after you know after you form a low when you look at the

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Speaker 1: longer term moving averages, right? You could say, look, Bitcoin is now above the 50 -week

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Speaker 1: moving average. And when you look at prior bear markets that started at the end of a post

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Speaker 1: -halving year, once Bitcoin is above the 50 -week and staying above it, like it has been

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Speaker 1: recently, normally it means the bear market's over, right? And you can see that happened

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Speaker 1: many, many times. And from a RSI perspective, right, if you were to look at the relative

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Speaker 1: strength index, you can see that, you know, it looks like Bitcoin here, technically

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Speaker 1: speaking, has done what it does every bear market, right? And that's go down to these lows.

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Speaker 1: And then it goes up and it kind of, you know, catches some people off guard. So there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of indicators that the bulls can point to. And I think that that is what has one of the

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Speaker 1: things that's been pulling Bitcoin higher is because there's a lot of people that are going

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Speaker 1: to look at these indicators and just simply believe that history is going to repeat itself.

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Speaker 1: And, and I've struggled with this because it goes against what normally happens

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Speaker 1: in Bitcoin's, you know, cycle around around now, right? Normally around now, Bitcoin

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Speaker 1: is dropping, or at least not spending a lot of time above a prior high, right

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Speaker 1: so the bulls have a case and if you want to

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Speaker 1: compare to 2019 which i think is a relevant comparison in fact i've been making that

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Speaker 1: comparison for years that this entire move here is more like this move

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Speaker 1: and for a long time a lot of people sort of went against that they're like no, this is not

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Speaker 1: like 2019. But now, of course, it makes more sense for them to favor it because it more so

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Speaker 1: aligns with their bias. And so what I was saying was that the 2019 post

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Speaker 1: apathetic top downturn would align with the 2026 bear market.

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Speaker 1: Now, what's interesting is if you overlay the 2019 bear market with where Bitcoin is

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Speaker 1: now, you can see that the lows would have occurred at around the same time. But what's

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Speaker 1: different is that in 2019, there was price -based capitulation where we reset

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Speaker 1: a lot of the on -chain indicators, right? So if you're just looking at it like this, you

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Speaker 1: could say, well, look, Bitcoin had about a nine -month bear market, but it also had a nine

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Speaker 1: -month bear market after the 2019 apathetic top as well. So why is that not enough? And if

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Speaker 1: you extend that out to the next peak, who's to say, right, that it can't just follow a

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Speaker 1: weaker version of what we saw back then? Now, if you're a bear, you're just simply going to

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Speaker 1: point out that the reason why we had such a euphoric rally back then was due to the

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Speaker 1: monetary policy response from the pandemic. from right from the pandemic and

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Speaker 1: if you're a bear you're going to say well hold on a second the reason why bitcoin was

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Speaker 1: breaking out so much was because the fed was printing trillions of dollars and if you look

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Speaker 1: at global net liquidity or sorry this is just total assets held by the federal reserve what

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Speaker 1: you'll notice is that bitcoin didn't really start moving to those levels until after the

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Speaker 1: balance sheet started to expand after the crisis. But right now, we're not really seeing

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Speaker 1: the balance sheet expand. It's sort of in this phase here, pre -expansion. And last time,

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Speaker 1: it required a crisis to get the balance sheet to really start expanding. And we don't know

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Speaker 1: what would have happened back then had that not occurred okay so in in in one

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Speaker 1: sense in one sense the bulls can simply say look we had a nine

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Speaker 1: -month fair market like 2019 why does it need to reset the on -chain indicators if we don't

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Speaker 1: go to the highs why do we have to go to the lows and what i mean by that is if you look at

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Speaker 1: things like the mbrb z score the market value realized value z score or there's some other

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Speaker 1: on -chain indicators as well historically this thing bottoms you know after it goes below

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Speaker 1: zero now you could argue that the etfs have kind of messed with that in some ways but

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Speaker 1: normally it bottoms below zero but it also normally tops well above where it did top

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Speaker 1: previously in 2019 it also topped near where it did this cycle as well and we still went

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Speaker 1: below zero if you're a bull you would probably look at the supply in profit or loss and

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Speaker 1: just simply say that look after they cross historically the bull market is in effect

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Speaker 1: although the bears could simply say look they crossed in 2022 and then they crossed again

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Speaker 1: later on and in 2018 they crossed and then they crossed again in 2020 when we had a

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Speaker 1: recession so that's kind of the elephant in the room as well as you know there's been a

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Speaker 1: discussion about a recession for probably about four or five years now and it hasn't

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Speaker 1: materialized and so in 2019 it was the recession that kind of killed

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Speaker 1: things right because if you look at the 50 -week moving average um bitcoin also

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Speaker 1: went below the 50 week moving average in that bear market and then got above it but then

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Speaker 1: went back below it right so it's not like there's no precedent for this either when you

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Speaker 1: compare it to the 2019 move so So the bulls have a case and it's because of that case

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Speaker 1: that Bitcoin has been doing so well, right?

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Speaker 1: Can't deny it, right? You can't deny it. The bears also have a point and I'll talk about,

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Speaker 1: you know, how I'm thinking about it at the end. Like, I'm not just going to, you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: not just here to sit here and point out everything possible, but I'm just trying to put the

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Speaker 1: evidence in front of you so that you can understand what the other side is thinking and

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Speaker 1: why, if you're a bull, you're probably wondering, like, why is Bitcoin not higher right

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Speaker 1: now? Because normally, when Bitcoin breaks through the 50 week moving average, after a

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Speaker 1: midterm year bear market, it explodes higher, right? I mean, it just simply explodes

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Speaker 1: higher. And it doesn't sit there and wait around and go and back test the 50 week moving

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Speaker 1: average, right? I mean, that's not something that normally happens. The only time that it's

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Speaker 1: really struggled once passing the 50 week, arguably, is in 2019, where it begrudgingly went

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Speaker 1: higher until the recession arrived so the bulls have a case now

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Speaker 1: the bears could simply say look that's great right like that's great

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Speaker 1: but what if you still have to have price -based capitulation like what if the

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Speaker 1: the things like the mvrv z score

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Speaker 1: do have to reset before we get another bull run and that's what's like

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Speaker 1: causing this tug of war because on one hand the bulls are going to point out that we

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Speaker 1: didn't go to extreme levels to the upside so why does it have to happen to the downside

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Speaker 1: right the bulls are going to point that out but the bears could simply say look when the

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Speaker 1: fed raised rates in the past right if you look at what bitcoin did after the first rate

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Speaker 1: hike in march of 2022 and look at it what it did here in

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Speaker 1: 2026 it popped up for a little bit and then fell off if you look at what it did in

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Speaker 1: 2015 the low was already in but bitcoin did go down about 20 after the rate

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Speaker 1: hike okay now if you average those out and look at 2026 this is

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Speaker 1: the bear case right like the bear case is just simply that after the rate hike bitcoin pops

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Speaker 1: up for a few weeks and then it and then it has that drop into q4 anyways right and and that

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Speaker 1: would put you at a day about day 94 and we're currently on day 30 right so that'd be 64

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Speaker 1: days from now so you're looking at at about mid to late december now mid to late December

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Speaker 1: seems like a pretty long bear market, right? Because that's not your typical year -long

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Speaker 1: bear market. And if you're looking at late December, that's closer to 60 weeks rather

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Speaker 1: than 52 or 54. And if you look at the last two bear markets, the last one was about 54

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Speaker 1: weeks, and the one before that was about 52 weeks. As it stands right now

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Speaker 1: where the current low is, this bear market was about 38 weeks, which is more in

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Speaker 1: line with what happened in 2019, where it was about 37 weeks. However, again, back then we

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Speaker 1: had price based capitulation. Now, if you go further back, there are bear markets that are

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Speaker 1: longer. For instance, the bear market in 2013 actually lasted about 59 weeks. So it's not

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Speaker 1: like there's never, it's not like there's no prior bear markets for Bitcoin that have gone

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Speaker 1: on longer than a year, a 59 -week bear market would actually put you in late November for

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Speaker 1: a low if it were to take as long as it did in 2014. But the main difference between now and

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Speaker 1: 2014 is that in 2014, Bitcoin was not above the 50 -week moving average, right? So

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, when you look at all of this, I think the most relevant view

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Speaker 1: is this 2019 view, because that's the only time where Bitcoin topped on

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Speaker 1: apathy rather than euphoria. It's the only time we had that quantitative

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Speaker 1: tightening came to an end and then Bitcoin topped just before QT ended and then went into

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Speaker 1: this digestion phase, right? Same thing. It's the only time that Bitcoin topped in that way

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Speaker 1: in the same year that Bitcoin had, that the Fed cut rates three times. 2019, there were

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Speaker 1: three rate cuts. 2025, there were three rate cuts. But what's happening now is

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Speaker 1: different than what happened in 2019. In 2019, Bitcoin was struggling

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Speaker 1: to break out, but the Fed was cutting rates. They just weren't cutting rates fast enough.

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Speaker 1: And then once they did cut rates fast enough, then Bitcoin really broke out. One way to

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Speaker 1: sort of visualize this is to look at Bitcoin and divide it by interest rates. I know that's

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Speaker 1: kind of a weird thing to do. But if you look at what Bitcoin was doing in 2019,

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Speaker 1: through that digestion phase, it was basically in a channel. And then if you

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Speaker 1: overlay interest rates, right, if you overlay interest rates, it was after interest rates

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Speaker 1: fell to the floor that then bitcoin broke out you see that well now we're kind of in a

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Speaker 1: similar channel right like there's this channel here where when you look at it bitcoin like

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Speaker 1: this bitcoin is still you know it's still around where the may high was when you divide by

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Speaker 1: interest rates and so the the point is that this time they're not lowering rates they're

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Speaker 1: raising rates they're actually doing the opposite of what they did in 2019 and the reason

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Speaker 1: is because of it is because of inflation coming back so there's issues

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Speaker 1: today that we're having to deal with that we didn't have to deal with back in 2019 and 2020

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Speaker 1: because this was when they were lowering rates this is

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Speaker 1: raising rates and you can see back then we went back and forth between these levels for a

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Speaker 1: long time before there was a decision, right? And that's, I think, what's making everyone

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Speaker 1: so frustrated now is that the bulls have every reason to be bullish based on the technical

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Speaker 1: indicators alone. They do.

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Speaker 1: The bears have a point, but it's an uncomfortable point, right? It's a, are we going to go

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Speaker 1: all macro bro on this rather than just listen to the chart, right? so i think there's

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Speaker 1: there's competing forces and when you look at the roi of bitcoin after a rate hike in

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Speaker 1: september of a midterm year you can see that the last two

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Speaker 1: times there was a rate hike in september of a midterm year bitcoin was flat for like 40 to

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Speaker 1: 50 days after that and then the drop occurred after about day 50

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Speaker 1: and we're currently on day 30 right so in this case and by the way

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Speaker 1: even if we were to follow what happened in 2022 that wouldn't even yield a new low for

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Speaker 1: bitcoin it would actually be a higher low even if we had a 20 drop so there's there's

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Speaker 1: there is a case on the bear side it's just simply that look after a rate hike bitcoin often

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Speaker 1: rallies at least out of two examples we have and then following that the market then drops

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Speaker 1: now because we don't have a lot of history for bitcoin it might be worthwhile to look at

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Speaker 1: the s p because when you look at the s p you can see there's a lot more um uh examples

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Speaker 1: we're going to go actually after after the first rate hike not just after a rate hike in

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Speaker 1: september of a midterm year because it's kind of oddly specific so if you look at what what

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Speaker 1: uh the the s p is doing right in september of 2026

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Speaker 1: now look at december 2020 uh 2015 you can see it kind of held for a bit and then dropped

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Speaker 1: and then if you look at march 2022 the s &p held for a bit and then had this bear market um

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Speaker 1: if you compare it to 1955 you had a little bit of a drop kind of around now in the s

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Speaker 1: &p and then it went up if you look at 1958 there was not much of a drop but there was

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Speaker 1: initially and then we went up so again there's not not every case does it have to go down

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Speaker 1: um continuing july of 1963 it was mostly just up 1967 it was

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Speaker 1: up for about 50 days right which kind of aligns with what we saw with bitcoin and then

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Speaker 1: there was a drop we're currently again we're currently on day about 30 or so so about 20

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Speaker 1: more days would be around when that would occur 1968 it just dropped 1971

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Speaker 1: we dropped held and then dropped further and then had a rally 1973 mostly just

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Speaker 1: down into the bear market 77 was a bear market for a little bit uh 1980 kind of just

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Speaker 1: chopped around for a year 1984 you can see it rallied for a bit and then dropped

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Speaker 1: into the sort of days 80 90 etc and then had another rally um 87

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Speaker 1: that's kind of a scary one right where it kind of holds and then has a massive drop uh 1994

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Speaker 1: holds and then drops 97 drops initially and then

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Speaker 1: goes up that's what i was thinking would happen i thought that the smp would just kind of

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Speaker 1: have a drop right after the rate hike uh and then go up but instead it's kind of held on

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Speaker 1: 1999 you can see it went up dropped and then had sort of one final rally before the dot

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Speaker 1: -com boom or the bust and then you have june of 2004 where it dropped almost immediately.

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Speaker 1: And if you average all of them, you can see that on average, the S &P drops following a

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Speaker 1: rate hike. And it often bottoms around day like 45, and then kind of retest those lows

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Speaker 1: around day 70. Which when you look at it like that, was the rationale that I had for saying

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Speaker 1: that the most likely outcome would be that the S &P would drop after the rate hike. and

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Speaker 1: that would allow for that low in Q4 to occur for Bitcoin. And then we would just kind of

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Speaker 1: continue on like we normally do. It was more so just looking at what happens on average.

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Speaker 1: And while there are other extremes that do happen, like there's extremes where you just

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Speaker 1: have a two to three year bear market, there's extremes where we just go up. I have to base

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Speaker 1: my decisions on, or at least what I communicate the most, is like what normally happens,

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Speaker 1: right? On average, what normally happens. and so I do that and I'd say about 70 % of the

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Speaker 1: time it works out and people are happy and then about 30 % of the time it doesn't and

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Speaker 1: that's where people get upset but you have to remember that it's not like there's a a one

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Speaker 1: size fits all for these things like sometimes the market goes up sometimes the market goes

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Speaker 1: down so yes I'm saying it could go up or down but the point is what does it do on average

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Speaker 1: after certain outcomes and those are the outcomes that I tend to focus a little bit more on

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Speaker 1: right so the bears are going to say look from this

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Speaker 1: perspective you could have argued why it would have happened okay now the

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Speaker 1: bulls are have they don't have this yet but they could have it relatively soon and that is

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Speaker 1: the roi after the low chart in midterm years because normally what happens is that bitcoin

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Speaker 1: bottoms uh out of the last two times right it bottomed on day like 1432 and 1436, we're

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Speaker 1: currently on day 1425. So we're only about 10 days away from where the last two cycles

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Speaker 1: ended up bottoming, right? I mean, we're only about 10 days away. So right now, you could

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Speaker 1: argue that this is on the bear side, but in not too much longer, this would be something

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Speaker 1: that the bulls would point to as a bull case, right? That the low, if there

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Speaker 1: was going to be a low it should occur really really soon and if it doesn't happen by the

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Speaker 1: end of October

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Speaker 1: then that would be another point for the bulls right now when you look at this chart when

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Speaker 1: you look at this chart through a different lens right if you if you look at it through the

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Speaker 1: 2019 lens for example the only way that that chart could still favor

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Speaker 1: the bears

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Speaker 1: and then it's still become a point for the bulls is if you have a

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Speaker 1: pandemic -like crash. That's the only way, right? It's the only way. Because someone's got

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Speaker 1: to be wrong if there's not a or a 2015 -like crash, right? And what I mean by

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Speaker 1: that is, you know, Bitcoin is at a really critical level right now. And what I would argue

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Speaker 1: is that if Bitcoin were to give up, 83k on the weekly timeframe after a week or two close,

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Speaker 1: then a lot of people will then completely question this entire breakout. And if they

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Speaker 1: do, this whole thing probably doesn't unwind over many, many months. It probably unwinds

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Speaker 1: like that, right? Because everyone that was relying on the technical indicators, the RSI,

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Speaker 1: the MACD, the Golden Cross, all that stuff, all that stuff becomes pointless and you have a

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Speaker 1: fake breakout to convince everyone and then it just goes down so if that were to happen if

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Speaker 1: bitcoin were to give up this level then i think it unwinds almost immediately and then the

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Speaker 1: 2019 view comes into play where you have a rally and then it stalls for a couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: and then you see how it just collapsed down within like two to three weeks same thing in

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Speaker 1: 2015 right after after it turned out that this was a false breakout

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Speaker 1: in 2015 it all collapsed within about two weeks or so right you had you had your

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Speaker 1: first

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Speaker 1: when you had your first close back below right like well below it was only two more weeks

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Speaker 1: after that when the actual low occurred and it was a sweep of the low that had happened

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Speaker 1: previously so that's why i'm saying like if this is a fake breakout if this is a

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Speaker 1: fake breakout then it unwinds almost immediately and if that were to happen then this chart

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Speaker 1: ends up forming a low just what it always does and then but it doesn't necessarily need to

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Speaker 1: be a much lower low so this is kind of where it's tricky because i feel like we're coming

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Speaker 1: up to a point where we're going to have a decision be made and arguably it's gonna it could

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Speaker 1: happen as early as this weekend right a lot of indicators say you know as early as this

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Speaker 1: weekend we could start to see um the finality of this discussion that we've

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Speaker 1: been kind of going back and forth on i'm of the opinion right and as i've said before that

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Speaker 1: if you close below these levels like you know then that would start to make me more be in

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Speaker 1: the camp that it's a fake out right and i i'm trying to like i'm giving myself that

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Speaker 1: as a as sort of like a um

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Speaker 1: invalidation for either view because i i don't want to be super deterministic

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Speaker 1: about which way because i already wasn't expecting this move to begin with so

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Speaker 1: it's only natural if you're not expecting a move to then go to the rooftop and then scream

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Speaker 1: that you know it's the market that's wrong and not you but it's probably better for our

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Speaker 1: egos to just say actually you know i was wrong not the market right and so if if it does

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Speaker 1: accept back below

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UNKNOWN: then

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Speaker 1: then the cycle just plays out like it always has theoretically speaking now

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Speaker 1: there's a few more things um that i want to talk about and and this is uh one of the bare

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Speaker 1: cases is this is that the 10 year yield right the 10 year yield is is starting to struggle

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Speaker 1: a little bit and you might say well isn't that a good thing it would make sense that it

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Speaker 1: would be but the problem is if you were to overlay bitcoin onto the chart the major

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Speaker 1: lows that occurred for bitcoin this year in sort of the february march time frame and in

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Speaker 1: the june july time frame actually occurred while the 10 year was going down, not up.

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Speaker 1: In fact, it was while the 10 year was going up that Bitcoin was generally doing okay. You

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Speaker 1: see? Now, the reason this sort of poses a potential problem is that

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Speaker 1: if the 10 year were to drop, then who's to say that it's not because of a growth scare,

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Speaker 1: and therefore Bitcoin ends up kind of completing the bear market just as it always has so

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Speaker 1: what i look at with that is again seasonality again it doesn't always work right i mean

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Speaker 1: sometimes it works sometimes it does not but if you look at the 10 -year yield

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Speaker 1: in 2026 and compare it to 2018 you can see that we're in we're potentially in a

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Speaker 1: topping process for the 10 -year yield what normally happens at least if look at say 2018

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Speaker 1: and also 2022 is that the 10 -year forms a high in october or november

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Speaker 1: and then it forms if the high is in october it then forms a slightly lower high in november

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Speaker 1: or it could be a slightly higher high around the midterms i don't know think about it like

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Speaker 1: around the midterms but then after the midterms the 10 -year typically drops after the

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Speaker 1: after the midterms what you'll notice for Bitcoin is that all prior lows

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Speaker 1: that occurred actually happened after the midterms when the 10 -year yield was

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Speaker 1: dropping in the last two midterm years, right? So if you look at the last cycle, you can

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Speaker 1: see the final drop was right around the midterms. In 2018, the final drop occurred right

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Speaker 1: after the midterms. And in 2014, the final drop occurred right after the midterms

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Speaker 1: which aligns with when the 10 -year yield was going down in late 2018 and late 2022

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Speaker 1: so if the 10 -year yield is destined to go down after the midterms then

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Speaker 1: perhaps bitcoin plays out just like it always has right now

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Speaker 1: i was trying to think like what would cause this to happen right like what would cause this

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Speaker 1: to happen well they say the the uh the common saying is that the solution to high rates as

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Speaker 1: high rates. If you have high rates long enough, it's going to affect a lot of companies.

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Speaker 1: And I know the S &P is essentially just pinned to prior all time highs.

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Speaker 1: The Nasdaq is starting to show a little bit of weakness, right?

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Speaker 1: The Dow Jones has shown some strength recently, arguably because rates have gone down a

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Speaker 1: little bit. But there are times where the Dow drops first, and then rebounds and then drops

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Speaker 1: more. In fact, that's what happened in, you know, 2024. It's also what happened in uh 2018

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Speaker 1: i believe actually no it dropped a little rallied in all -time highs and then sorry here it

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Speaker 1: dropped rallied back up and then dropped more right so it's not like it can't drop again if

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Speaker 1: you look at the russell the russell's just been getting hammered right i mean it's just

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Speaker 1: been down week after week after week and you know i'm starting to wonder is this is this

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Speaker 1: kind of the destination for the Russell. Because right now, we have a 10 -year yield

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Speaker 1: that is down after a hot CPI report and a hot PPI report,

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Speaker 1: okay? To me, that's the sign that yields are in the topping process. When you have a bad

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Speaker 1: print and yields come down, is that not a sign that

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Speaker 1: perhaps the market is starting to worry a little bit more about growth than inflation.

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Speaker 1: What could cause the 10 -year to go back up? Because a lot of times, remember, as we said,

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Speaker 1: a lot of times what happens is the 10 -year drops like it does now, but then it bounces

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Speaker 1: back up again around the midterms.

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Speaker 1: If you look at rate hike expectations, the odds of a rate hike now in October are 85%.

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Speaker 1: 85%, right?

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Speaker 1: Now, if they don't raise rates in October, because of some, hey, we're going into the

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Speaker 1: midterms, let's not raise rates, let's wait until December. By the way, in 2018, they

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Speaker 1: raised rates in September and December, and they skipped the meeting around the midterms.

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Speaker 1: So the market thinks the Fed should raise rates. And, you know, there's a disagreement

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Speaker 1: about whether this is a sort of what the market thinks the Fed should do or what they think

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Speaker 1: the market or what they think the market or what the market thinks the Fed will do. But

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Speaker 1: according to the market, there's an 85 % chance of a rate hike. Imagine if they don't raise

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Speaker 1: rates. The 10 -year yield likely bounces back up to the highs because the market starts to

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Speaker 1: get concerned as will the Fed actually do what they need to do. If the 10 -year yield were

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Speaker 1: to bounce back up, then things like the Russell, which has been dropping, and

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Speaker 1: the Dow Jones, those would start to come back down. I mean, the Russell's already been

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Speaker 1: going down, but the Dow Jones would likely start to struggle again as well, because it

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Speaker 1: would be, it more so benefits from rates coming down, whereas the S &P

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Speaker 1: hasn't been nearly as affected by this, okay? So there's

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Speaker 1: a strong consideration there that if the fed doesn't raise rates

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Speaker 1: then perhaps this just bounces back up spooks everyone comes down after the midterms

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Speaker 1: gives us a recession scare and then hopefully just kind of continues back up after that

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Speaker 1: hopefully there's not actually an immediate recession right so that's the sort of the the

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Speaker 1: the bear case would be that bitcoin ends up dropping after after that because what normally

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Speaker 1: happens is that metals bottom around the time that yields top so

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Speaker 1: if you look at gold for instance um if you look at gold you can see

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Speaker 1: that in 2018 or sorry in 2022 you know it bottomed in the october to early november time

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Speaker 1: frame when yields were topping And in 2018, gold bottomed in the August

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Speaker 1: to October time frame, again, when yields were topping. So gold

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Speaker 1: bottomed when yields topped, but Bitcoin bottomed when yields were going

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Speaker 1: down. So that's the bear case. But here's the problem with all that. And this is why I say,

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Speaker 1: you know, you almost have to be careful what you wish for, right? and i've struggled with

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Speaker 1: this too is if we do break down and this is a fake out and it just

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Speaker 1: completely fools all the bulls i have to ask myself is that really what i want at this

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Speaker 1: point you know i mean it the problem with that is it break i mean all the indicators that

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Speaker 1: have fired off that have fired off at the end of other bear markets would be completely

369
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:41,720
Speaker 1: null and void and part of it with Bitcoin is just believing that the same thing is going to

370
00:35:41,720 --> 00:35:48,220
Speaker 1: happen that has happened is going to keep happening. And if that were to fail, I would

371
00:35:48,220 --> 00:35:54,240
Speaker 1: actually be concerned that it would actually kill the market for years, not just a few

372
00:35:54,240 --> 00:36:00,620
Speaker 1: months, but for years. And the reason why I say that is because imagine Bitcoin comes back

373
00:36:00,620 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 1: down to 60k and then bounces back up, right? Everyone who

374
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 1: bought up here who believed in all those indicators are probably going to be selling

375
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:20,820
Speaker 1: pressure now so who's to say that it couldn't just come back up and then drop and then we

376
00:36:20,820 --> 00:36:27,660
Speaker 1: go down in 2027 that's not like my base case but it is a consideration to to be made

377
00:36:27,660 --> 00:36:32,060
Speaker 1: and the only reason i bring it up and i've i've shown you this guy this chart a couple of

378
00:36:32,060 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 1: times now uh it's the silver chart right it's the it's after the silver rally uh from 2011

379
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 1: where you had to move up you came down you then had a big move up above that

380
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 1: was a fake out you then came down so imagine it's like your february for bitcoin it's like

381
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 1: your february low your july low and then your q4 low and then you go back up and it's like

382
00:36:56,400 --> 00:37:02,220
Speaker 1: surely now we can break through and then it ends up being a low or high and then you break

383
00:37:02,220 --> 00:37:06,380
Speaker 1: down and then every all the on -chain indicators finally reset right but then that that

384
00:37:06,380 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 1: kills the market for years and i think the reason it kills the market for years is because

385
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:16,620
Speaker 1: if you have a fake out like that where everyone gets all bowled up calling for new highs

386
00:37:16,620 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 1: and it fails then all those guys are going to be selling pressure when it comes back up

387
00:37:23,260 --> 00:37:27,380
Speaker 1: because all the indicators they put their faith in now no longer work

388
00:37:28,690 --> 00:37:34,950
Speaker 1: so that's why i'm saying it's like a a be careful what you wish for type thing right

389
00:37:34,950 --> 00:37:41,950
Speaker 1: because if that's how it plays out if that's a fake out and it comes back down and we just

390
00:37:41,950 --> 00:37:47,910
Speaker 1: and let's say we print a higher low and we go back up who's to say that the uh

391
00:37:47,910 --> 00:37:54,850
Speaker 1: you know this long -awaited recession won't finally kick in think about it like this do

392
00:37:54,850 --> 00:37:59,030
Speaker 1: you guys remember how a lot of people were waiting for alt season last cycle and it never

393
00:37:59,030 --> 00:38:04,970
Speaker 1: happened and the reason it never happened is because when it would normally occur

394
00:38:04,970 --> 00:38:11,570
Speaker 1: in q4 right of the post having year when it would normally

395
00:38:11,570 --> 00:38:18,550
Speaker 1: occur the bear market for bitcoin started had the bear market not started we

396
00:38:19,860 --> 00:38:23,280
Speaker 1: probably would have had an alt season because Bitcoin would have had a euphoric rally, you

397
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:28,500
Speaker 1: know, would have gone to 200k and there would have been that rotation. But instead, the

398
00:38:28,500 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: Bitcoin bear market started. So it made it so that the higher risk

399
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 1: assets like altcoins were then unable to catch a bid because the bear market had started.

400
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:49,460
Speaker 1: So the things that are the if you think about like a risk curve, right? Altcoins are way

401
00:38:49,460 --> 00:38:53,760
Speaker 1: over here, right? So you have alts that are way up here, they're really high risk, right?

402
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:58,580
Speaker 1: And then below that, you've got Bitcoin. Okay, so think about it like that.

403
00:39:00,630 --> 00:39:06,910
Speaker 1: Alts did not get their bull market rally at the end, because Bitcoin went into a bear

404
00:39:06,910 --> 00:39:12,510
Speaker 1: market. Okay, now, that's where you have to start thinking about the S &P 500. If you look

405
00:39:12,510 --> 00:39:18,530
Speaker 1: at the S &P 500, people have been calling for a recession for years, right? For years. And

406
00:39:18,530 --> 00:39:22,550
Speaker 1: the reality is, is no one really knows when it's going to happen. If you look at initial

407
00:39:22,550 --> 00:39:28,610
Speaker 1: claims, initial claims are relatively low, right? Like you can't look at initial claims and

408
00:39:28,610 --> 00:39:33,530
Speaker 1: say that you're in a recession right now because this is not recessionary territory

409
00:39:33,530 --> 00:39:40,410
Speaker 1: historically. I even have a recession risk dashboard that shows right now

410
00:39:40,410 --> 00:39:47,210
Speaker 1: that it's kind of low. And given the fact that we have the Anthropic IPO and the

411
00:39:47,210 --> 00:39:53,210
Speaker 1: OpenAI IPO, it would seem kind of strange if we go into a recession before that, right? It

412
00:39:53,210 --> 00:39:56,910
Speaker 1: would make more sense to me that it would happen after that. And we haven't had either of

413
00:39:56,910 --> 00:40:02,450
Speaker 1: those yet. If you look at these, though, a lot of these aren't going to really show concern

414
00:40:02,450 --> 00:40:07,210
Speaker 1: until after stocks start to drop because stocks move first, then it shows up in the

415
00:40:07,210 --> 00:40:13,090
Speaker 1: economy. The only one of these that is sort of designed to show a little bit more concern

416
00:40:13,090 --> 00:40:19,030
Speaker 1: first is the interest rate risk. And if you look at the spread on the 10 -year and the

417
00:40:19,030 --> 00:40:25,070
Speaker 1: three -month, it's this metric that starts to show up first. Now, it's been going up

418
00:40:25,070 --> 00:40:25,550
Speaker 1: recently.

419
00:40:26,990 --> 00:40:31,790
Speaker 1: not a lot right i mean it's not like it's all the way up at one but it has been going up

420
00:40:31,790 --> 00:40:36,430
Speaker 1: and it makes sense because think about what's happened with yields recently okay so this

421
00:40:36,430 --> 00:40:42,030
Speaker 1: has gone up now the the reason why this is the only one that i allow to really go up before

422
00:40:42,030 --> 00:40:47,730
Speaker 1: there's more of a correction is because i want a signal the problem is if you allow it to

423
00:40:47,730 --> 00:40:53,430
Speaker 1: do that there's going to be a lot of false positives for instance in the 1990s you can see

424
00:40:53,430 --> 00:40:57,430
Speaker 1: this went all the way up and then it dropped there was a drop in the stock market but then

425
00:40:57,430 --> 00:41:03,390
Speaker 1: we went marginally higher before the bear market actually began and you can see there's

426
00:41:03,390 --> 00:41:09,290
Speaker 1: other times as well where this thing spikes right you can see it also spiked in 96 and

427
00:41:09,290 --> 00:41:14,810
Speaker 1: there was no recession but all prior recessions saw this thing spiking right it saw it

428
00:41:14,810 --> 00:41:21,470
Speaker 1: spiking and it tends to spike before the other things so that's been going up recently so

429
00:41:21,470 --> 00:41:27,530
Speaker 1: it is a little concerning but again with initial claims where they are it's not really

430
00:41:27,530 --> 00:41:32,770
Speaker 1: recessionary it's not really recession territory the problem is that it's lower asset

431
00:41:32,770 --> 00:41:36,990
Speaker 1: prices that then lead to recession territory it's not recession territory that then leads

432
00:41:36,990 --> 00:41:41,290
Speaker 1: to lower asset prices at least not that's not how the feedback loop begins it might be what

433
00:41:41,290 --> 00:41:48,150
Speaker 1: happens eventually but it's not how it begins okay so i was thinking like you know with the

434
00:41:48,150 --> 00:41:54,870
Speaker 1: s &p is it possible that we are near a top sort of a

435
00:41:54,870 --> 00:42:00,490
Speaker 1: macro top rather than a local top i would like to believe that with these major ipos coming

436
00:42:00,490 --> 00:42:07,470
Speaker 1: up that there could still be another sort of move for the S &P, right?

437
00:42:07,970 --> 00:42:12,110
Speaker 1: But I was looking, you know, I was looking at the 90s, and I've, I've, I've done this

438
00:42:12,110 --> 00:42:17,450
Speaker 1: before. And you have to remember that that fractals don't really often play out. They tend

439
00:42:17,450 --> 00:42:21,110
Speaker 1: not to, especially when you're talking about like sort of the down, the down phase of it.

440
00:42:22,050 --> 00:42:28,070
Speaker 1: But just to kind of put it on your radar, as to what would stop a Bitcoin bull market,

441
00:42:28,370 --> 00:42:34,690
Speaker 1: it would be an S &P bear market. So if you if you sort of look at what the S &P did in the

442
00:42:34,690 --> 00:42:39,930
Speaker 1: 90s with the dotcom boom, and then just kind of overlay it to what it's done since the AI

443
00:42:39,930 --> 00:42:46,090
Speaker 1: boom, you can see that you have a lot of these sort of patterns line up, right? You have

444
00:42:46,090 --> 00:42:51,570
Speaker 1: this little correction there, you have the correction in late 2024 2025, which we called

445
00:42:51,570 --> 00:42:56,830
Speaker 1: for back then I said in late 2024, we were going to have about a 20 % drop. And that was

446
00:42:56,830 --> 00:43:01,670
Speaker 1: actually based on the S &P divided by M2 chart, right? Because if you look at the S &P

447
00:43:01,670 --> 00:43:08,070
Speaker 1: divided by M2, when we reach this level, I said, all right, guys, it's time for a 20 %

448
00:43:08,070 --> 00:43:14,410
Speaker 1: drop. Because in the same move, in the 1990s, we had this 20 % drop, right? And we and in

449
00:43:14,410 --> 00:43:19,590
Speaker 1: fact, it played out the exact same way, right? You had a 20 % drop, and then we rallied to

450
00:43:19,590 --> 00:43:24,610
Speaker 1: all -time highs. And then after rallying up, you can see we had another drop about right

451
00:43:24,610 --> 00:43:30,650
Speaker 1: there, which aligns right there, right? It's the same thing. And so the question is, are we

452
00:43:30,650 --> 00:43:37,350
Speaker 1: just repeating this to the point that if you look at this fractal, what's

453
00:43:37,350 --> 00:43:43,590
Speaker 1: interesting is that the months are flipped. So back then, the lows were in

454
00:43:43,590 --> 00:43:50,470
Speaker 1: October leading into it right so if you look at the 90s it

455
00:43:50,470 --> 00:43:57,410
Speaker 1: was um i believe it was october yeah october of 97 october of 98

456
00:43:57,410 --> 00:44:03,710
Speaker 1: and then here october of 99 and then the top

457
00:44:03,710 --> 00:44:09,670
Speaker 1: was in march right so it was october october october march

458
00:44:09,670 --> 00:44:15,670
Speaker 1: but this time the lows were first

459
00:44:17,910 --> 00:44:22,730
Speaker 1: one was october right But then the next one was March, and then the one after that was

460
00:44:22,730 --> 00:44:29,610
Speaker 1: March. Right now, we're in October. So October and March seem to be periods for the S &P

461
00:44:29,610 --> 00:44:34,530
Speaker 1: where it's kind of like a turnaround point. Either March or October seem to mark these

462
00:44:34,530 --> 00:44:41,150
Speaker 1: levels. What's interesting is that the S &P could still stall out, drop into Q4,

463
00:44:42,950 --> 00:44:48,450
Speaker 1: get everyone to believe that that's the four -year cycle low. we go back up into the

464
00:44:48,450 --> 00:44:54,190
Speaker 1: Anthropic IPO, the OpenAI IPO, everyone's ready for the bull market. And then the bear

465
00:44:54,190 --> 00:44:59,290
Speaker 1: market finally hits. Now, I'm not a big believer, honestly, in these fractals. I've done

466
00:44:59,290 --> 00:45:05,390
Speaker 1: this long enough to know that anytime you overlay a fractal onto a chart like this, it's

467
00:45:05,390 --> 00:45:10,990
Speaker 1: not going to play out, right? It's just not. And I'm only showing this, not to say that

468
00:45:10,990 --> 00:45:17,350
Speaker 1: this is what's going to happen. But just to say, these are things that could stop a Bitcoin

469
00:45:17,350 --> 00:45:23,990
Speaker 1: bull market, right? If the AI bubble were to sort of pop, if you will. I don't think that

470
00:45:23,990 --> 00:45:30,910
Speaker 1: we are in the same type of bubble territory now that we were back then. If you look at

471
00:45:30,910 --> 00:45:36,670
Speaker 1: the S &P divided by gold, for instance, the valuation of the S &P against gold is nowhere

472
00:45:36,670 --> 00:45:42,050
Speaker 1: near what it was in the dot com era right back then the the ratio was around five to six

473
00:45:42,050 --> 00:45:47,330
Speaker 1: today it's between one and two right we're we're sort of at a sort of a level where there's

474
00:45:47,330 --> 00:45:53,510
Speaker 1: a resistance here right there's certainly a resistance as there was in 1973 and and also

475
00:45:53,510 --> 00:46:00,490
Speaker 1: right here in in 2015 2016 but it's not as frothy as it was during the dot -com

476
00:46:00,490 --> 00:46:07,170
Speaker 1: crash so when i think about like okay what if

477
00:46:07,170 --> 00:46:13,790
Speaker 1: if the bears are right and we go down my concern at that

478
00:46:13,790 --> 00:46:20,450
Speaker 1: point would be that it might kill the market for years if we just go back to say 60k and

479
00:46:20,450 --> 00:46:25,070
Speaker 1: then bounce back up because then you're just rinsing everyone out right you're just you're

480
00:46:25,070 --> 00:46:28,250
Speaker 1: you're you're wrecking the bears you're wrecking the bulls you're just going back and forth

481
00:46:28,250 --> 00:46:31,610
Speaker 1: and and eventually people are just going to give up and they're going to be apathetic about

482
00:46:31,610 --> 00:46:37,470
Speaker 1: the whole thing right so i think it's one of those things where like you got to be careful

483
00:46:37,470 --> 00:46:42,990
Speaker 1: what you wish for and then i mean of course on the bull side you know if if this holds then

484
00:46:42,990 --> 00:46:47,490
Speaker 1: what likely happens is it just goes up into the recession right until the recession

485
00:46:47,490 --> 00:46:53,950
Speaker 1: actually arrives whether it's 2027 2028 2029 who who really knows um i think that's what

486
00:46:53,950 --> 00:46:59,670
Speaker 1: makes it particularly difficult is because if you are buying you know what the potential

487
00:46:59,670 --> 00:47:05,010
Speaker 1: headwind is right like you know like okay how long is it going to take for you know for all

488
00:47:05,010 --> 00:47:09,170
Speaker 1: this uncertainty to really start to affect markets because markets in general don't like

489
00:47:09,170 --> 00:47:14,230
Speaker 1: uncertainty if you look at the world uncertainty index the world uncertainty index is

490
00:47:14,230 --> 00:47:19,170
Speaker 1: pretty high right now right like it's higher you know i mean it's been high ever since

491
00:47:19,170 --> 00:47:24,910
Speaker 1: really the the new administration right ever since Trump took office, when he implemented

492
00:47:24,910 --> 00:47:28,810
Speaker 1: tariffs, and I mean, all the different headlines, obviously, that's going to introduce

493
00:47:28,810 --> 00:47:35,430
Speaker 1: uncertainty. Markets are still at all time highs. But oftentimes, you know, uncertainty is

494
00:47:35,430 --> 00:47:40,630
Speaker 1: not great for markets. If you look at the economic policy uncertainty index, that's also

495
00:47:40,630 --> 00:47:43,710
Speaker 1: been more elevated than it normally is.

496
00:47:46,170 --> 00:47:52,590
Speaker 1: So I think this is what makes it so difficult is that the the technical sort of the pure

497
00:47:52,590 --> 00:47:58,430
Speaker 1: technical indicators for bitcoin are bullish the rsi is bullish the macd is bullish the

498
00:47:58,430 --> 00:48:04,710
Speaker 1: golden cross is bullish above the 50 -week moving average that's all bullish and it's hard

499
00:48:04,710 --> 00:48:11,410
Speaker 1: to like ignore that but the bearish view is that a lot of the on -chain stuff

500
00:48:11,410 --> 00:48:18,330
Speaker 1: never actually reset and in 2019 we went down didn't reset we

501
00:48:18,330 --> 00:48:24,150
Speaker 1: went up convinced everyone that we were back in business and then the recession arrived and

502
00:48:24,150 --> 00:48:30,050
Speaker 1: then we still triggered all this all the on -chain indicators anyways it still it still all

503
00:48:30,050 --> 00:48:35,470
Speaker 1: got triggered regardless because the recession finally arrived i think that's what makes it

504
00:48:35,470 --> 00:48:41,350
Speaker 1: so difficult is because you know i thought the most likely outcome for bitcoin going into

505
00:48:41,350 --> 00:48:48,250
Speaker 1: this was that the rate hike the rate hike would cause bitcoin to drop

506
00:48:48,250 --> 00:48:54,590
Speaker 1: go below the realized price right go below the realized price which is around like 53k or

507
00:48:54,590 --> 00:49:00,390
Speaker 1: so and then have a rally after that that's what i thought

508
00:49:00,390 --> 00:49:07,150
Speaker 1: because i assumed that when we had a rate hike it would spook the

509
00:49:07,150 --> 00:49:13,410
Speaker 1: market initially like it does on average. Again, the S &P 500,

510
00:49:13,990 --> 00:49:20,610
Speaker 1: on average, after, sorry, I need to look at the right thing. After a rate hike,

511
00:49:24,060 --> 00:49:26,460
Speaker 1: on average, the S &P goes down.

512
00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:35,460
Speaker 1: So I thought, you know, I was all, I thought, oh, I'm very smart. Like, I'm going to look

513
00:49:35,460 --> 00:49:40,260
Speaker 1: at this and say, look, we're going to get a rate hike. The S &P is going to drop. And it

514
00:49:40,260 --> 00:49:44,980
Speaker 1: looks like it's going to bottom right around, you know, the the sort of the mid to in part

515
00:49:44,980 --> 00:49:49,400
Speaker 1: of q4 that's going to lead to the four year cycle low for bitcoin everyone's going to freak

516
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:53,840
Speaker 1: out and call for a recession but instead we're going to get a lot more rate hikes and we're

517
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:57,380
Speaker 1: just going to go up for another year and a half right that was what i was thinking um and

518
00:49:57,380 --> 00:50:03,860
Speaker 1: the reason i thought that was because when the in the 90s when the fed started raising

519
00:50:03,860 --> 00:50:10,580
Speaker 1: rates again they had to raise rates look at i was a complete mess back then imagine if we

520
00:50:10,580 --> 00:50:14,300
Speaker 1: have to deal with this this time like look at this in the 90s you see they they they

521
00:50:14,300 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 1: lowered rates and then they raised rates 25 basis points so i was thinking we were kind of

522
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:24,260
Speaker 1: like in this in this part i was thinking we were like right there we get a rate hike s &p

523
00:50:24,260 --> 00:50:29,280
Speaker 1: gets a drop people freak out think it's a recession but then we go up for another couple

524
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 1: years markets go like this we then eventually get a few rate cuts maybe

525
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:39,820
Speaker 1: that then leads to the final phase of the bull market. Maybe that's when people get their

526
00:50:39,820 --> 00:50:45,720
Speaker 1: finally long awaited alt season. And then we raise rates again, and then it kills the

527
00:50:45,720 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 1: market. Right? That, that was kind of what I was somewhat basing it on. But then the market

528
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:57,400
Speaker 1: basically ripped me a new one, when we got the rate hike. And instead of the S &P dropping,

529
00:50:57,700 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 1: it went up instead. Right? So that that's kind of like where I got a little bit off base.

530
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:08,900
Speaker 1: And then that's why I don't want to be overly deterministic here. So what I would say is

531
00:51:08,900 --> 00:51:15,120
Speaker 1: this, right? We're coming up on a pretty important time for Bitcoin right now. And

532
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:21,900
Speaker 1: I would say this, if Bitcoin closes below these levels, then

533
00:51:21,900 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 1: I would then more so defer towards the fake out move in 2015

534
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:34,200
Speaker 1: or 2020. I would, right? That's what I would defer to. Because again,

535
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's a pandemic. What I'm saying is that when you have a move where you

536
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:46,100
Speaker 1: convince everyone that the bull market is back on, like in 2020, and like in 2015,

537
00:51:46,700 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 1: if you give back that, then it unwinds immediately. It does not take six months to

538
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:59,500
Speaker 1: unwind. It just unwinds overnight, practically, because then everyone who was bullish now

539
00:51:59,500 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 1: realizes the bear market's not over. Okay?

540
00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:11,440
Speaker 1: That's why I'm saying respect the closes. Respect the closes. As long as

541
00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:16,700
Speaker 1: we're closing up here, the bulls can just simply say, look, things are fine. But if you

542
00:52:16,700 --> 00:52:22,580
Speaker 1: close below, that's where it becomes a problem. And that's where you would want to lean

543
00:52:22,580 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 1: into the bear narrative a lot more.

544
00:52:25,780 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 1: Now, we're going to look at another thing. The daily timeframe for bitcoin

545
00:52:31,640 --> 00:52:37,780
Speaker 1: bitcoin right now is doing a very similar thing that it did after the may high right and

546
00:52:37,780 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 1: i'll show you what i mean look and actually it might be a little bit better to look on

547
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:44,900
Speaker 1: total market cap because i think that's a little bit more relevant here look at total

548
00:52:44,900 --> 00:52:50,860
Speaker 1: market cap look at what it did after the may high it came down swept it

549
00:52:50,860 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 1: swept it there right see same thing rallied back up rallied back up came back down

550
00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 1: again close below it just like it did over here and then it rallied for about

551
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 1: three days three to four days we're currently in day two of that but you see that you see

552
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:17,260
Speaker 1: how it how it did that and then it was the next week it unwound

553
00:53:17,260 --> 00:53:24,080
Speaker 1: so if you look at this let's say we're right here and let's say the bears are

554
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:30,980
Speaker 1: right It would only take 12 days to basically print the

555
00:53:30,980 --> 00:53:37,080
Speaker 1: low, right? It would only take 12 days. And if you look at

556
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:43,720
Speaker 1: that ROI chart that we were talking about from the low,

557
00:53:44,140 --> 00:53:49,820
Speaker 1: right? If you look at the ROI after the cycle bottom, you go out to the next bottom. We're

558
00:53:49,820 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 1: currently on day 1425.

559
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 1: remember last cycle bottomed on 1436 that's 11 days from now

560
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:06,020
Speaker 1: that's why that's why i'm saying that if if bitcoin if total market cap repeats

561
00:54:06,020 --> 00:54:12,800
Speaker 1: this the the low is not is unlikely to be six months from now it would be

562
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:18,980
Speaker 1: immediate right it would be it would it would happen so quickly that i'm not going to have

563
00:54:18,980 --> 00:54:22,700
Speaker 1: time to even like almost come on here and talk about it very much because it would happen

564
00:54:22,700 --> 00:54:27,860
Speaker 1: practically overnight. That's why, and I've said this for a long time, bear markets make

565
00:54:27,860 --> 00:54:32,660
Speaker 1: fools of both bulls and bears. Because for most of the bear

566
00:54:32,660 --> 00:54:39,620
Speaker 1: market, Bitcoin actually goes up. That's why bears look like

567
00:54:39,620 --> 00:54:46,240
Speaker 1: idiots in bear markets. Because Bitcoin generally likes to trend higher and then it breaks

568
00:54:46,240 --> 00:54:50,700
Speaker 1: down very quickly. And then it just slowly trends up for a long time before then like

569
00:54:50,700 --> 00:54:57,320
Speaker 1: breaking down. look at this cycle, right? When it drops, it drops fairly quickly. And then

570
00:54:57,320 --> 00:55:02,860
Speaker 1: it spends months trending up and then dropped quickly, months trending up and then drops

571
00:55:02,860 --> 00:55:07,700
Speaker 1: quickly. That's why it's so hard to be a bear in a bear market, because you spend the

572
00:55:07,700 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 1: entire bear market thinking you're wrong, because there's only like 10 or 12 days every few

573
00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:17,660
Speaker 1: months where you feel like a genius and you're like, well, see, I told you so. And by the

574
00:55:17,660 --> 00:55:22,300
Speaker 1: time you say I told you so, that's the next low and then you spend the next three months

575
00:55:22,300 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 1: wishing you hadn't said that right so if you're looking at total

576
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:32,220
Speaker 1: market if you're looking at total market cap

577
00:55:34,230 --> 00:55:40,770
Speaker 1: this is why i think we're the the uncertainty is about to unwind right we're going to make

578
00:55:40,770 --> 00:55:46,110
Speaker 1: a decision here we're either going to break back up or we're not and it's going to happen i

579
00:55:46,110 --> 00:55:51,270
Speaker 1: think really really soon the total market cap has swept the low, just like it did over here

580
00:55:51,270 --> 00:55:57,030
Speaker 1: previously. But look at what it did back in May. It also swept the low. See this?

581
00:55:58,110 --> 00:56:04,830
Speaker 1: Swept the low, rallied around the 50 -day, and then sold off. Just because it sold off back

582
00:56:04,830 --> 00:56:10,150
Speaker 1: then does not mean it has to sell off today. What I'm saying is if it does sell off,

583
00:56:10,430 --> 00:56:16,470
Speaker 1: recognize it's going to be over before you can blink. It's going to be over before you can

584
00:56:16,470 --> 00:56:16,630
Speaker 1: blink.

585
00:56:17,870 --> 00:56:21,430
Speaker 1: And if it rallies, it'll probably be over before you can blink too. Just like it was over

586
00:56:21,430 --> 00:56:26,410
Speaker 1: here, right? You get like a week of a rally and then you spend another two months

587
00:56:26,410 --> 00:56:32,330
Speaker 1: consolidating. And that's what happened in 2019, right? Bitcoin just sort of stair -stepped

588
00:56:32,330 --> 00:56:39,130
Speaker 1: up for months. If you don't know what I'm talking about, if you look at the Bitcoin chart

589
00:56:39,130 --> 00:56:43,070
Speaker 1: and you go all the way back to 2019,

590
00:56:44,730 --> 00:56:48,630
Speaker 1: and you sort of zoom in here what that's what bitcoin did right like it just sort of stair

591
00:56:48,630 --> 00:56:53,910
Speaker 1: stepped upwards where it would put in a high hold it as a hold it as support and then just

592
00:56:53,910 --> 00:57:00,830
Speaker 1: kind of just slowly did that for a while and then eventually it swept below it

593
00:57:00,830 --> 00:57:07,770
Speaker 1: rallied and then it was over quickly and look how look how quickly it became

594
00:57:07,770 --> 00:57:10,890
Speaker 1: over once that final rally ended

595
00:57:12,410 --> 00:57:19,290
Speaker 1: it was over in two to three weeks in 2015 when the final rally

596
00:57:19,290 --> 00:57:25,530
Speaker 1: ended and we sort of broke back down below the 50 -day moving average it was over in 10

597
00:57:25,530 --> 00:57:32,290
Speaker 1: days so i it's hard because like i i see the bull case right like i'm not

598
00:57:32,290 --> 00:57:36,790
Speaker 1: some people think like i'm blind to it that they think that i can't understand there's an

599
00:57:36,790 --> 00:57:40,870
Speaker 1: rsi that looks good and that the golden cross and that we're above the I get all that,

600
00:57:41,030 --> 00:57:46,310
Speaker 1: right? And that's why I said back in July, the accumulation phase had begun. I mean, I

601
00:57:46,310 --> 00:57:51,130
Speaker 1: clearly said that, and I've said it in practically every video since, that my strategy for

602
00:57:51,130 --> 00:57:56,510
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is to just simply DCA throughout the second half of the midterm year, right? That's

603
00:57:56,510 --> 00:58:00,070
Speaker 1: what I've normally done. That's what I did in 2018. That's what I did in 2022. That's what

604
00:58:00,070 --> 00:58:01,130
Speaker 1: I said I'm going to do in 2026.

605
00:58:04,380 --> 00:58:09,620
Speaker 1: Because I know how hard it is. I know how hard it is to navigate the latter part of the

606
00:58:09,620 --> 00:58:10,200
Speaker 1: midterm year.

607
00:58:12,540 --> 00:58:18,500
Speaker 1: so this is where we are right this is i hope that you can at least leave this video

608
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:26,120
Speaker 1: understanding why there is so much uncertainty right because you're probably if you're if

609
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:30,380
Speaker 1: you're a bull you're like what what is ben talking about like why is he ignoring these

610
00:58:30,380 --> 00:58:37,160
Speaker 1: indicators why is he ignoring it i'm not i i i recognize them and that's why i said i

611
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:41,860
Speaker 1: thought there was back in August, I said, I think there's a 65 % chance the low is ahead of

612
00:58:41,860 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 1: us and 35 % that it's behind us. I still gave some probability to the low being in. It just

613
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:53,640
Speaker 1: wasn't my base case. Maybe it should have been my base case, right? But it wasn't my base

614
00:58:53,640 --> 00:58:57,900
Speaker 1: case back then. I didn't say it couldn't be in. I just said it wasn't my base case.

615
00:59:00,070 --> 00:59:06,470
Speaker 1: So here we are. I understand the bull case. completely understand it okay you don't have to

616
00:59:06,470 --> 00:59:12,830
Speaker 1: convince me i mean i get it i also understand the bear case from a more macro perspective

617
00:59:12,830 --> 00:59:17,950
Speaker 1: by the way in 2019 when we were breaking out there were not a lot of people talking about

618
00:59:17,950 --> 00:59:23,910
Speaker 1: it being a false breakout and and also heading back down you couldn't predict the pandemic

619
00:59:23,910 --> 00:59:28,450
Speaker 1: right but i and i don't i'm not suggesting we're about to have a pandemic but what i am

620
00:59:28,450 --> 00:59:33,810
Speaker 1: saying is that there are other things that are concerning right and and And one of those

621
00:59:33,810 --> 00:59:39,890
Speaker 1: things is just simply the price of oil, right? I mean, oil just keeps on going up and who

622
00:59:39,890 --> 00:59:44,370
Speaker 1: knows when it's ever going to stop. And I imagine that's weighing on people. And really, I

623
00:59:44,370 --> 00:59:49,850
Speaker 1: think inflation is, you know, if you look at like the producer price index as it just had

624
00:59:49,850 --> 00:59:56,550
Speaker 1: that big move up, I think that's also sort of weighing because it just means that rates are

625
00:59:56,550 --> 01:00:00,890
Speaker 1: going to start going higher. It doesn't mean you can't have a bull market. But what it does

626
01:00:00,890 --> 01:00:04,190
Speaker 1: mean for crypto is that if rates are going back up and they're going to become more

627
01:00:04,190 --> 01:00:10,250
Speaker 1: restrictive, you should expect Bitcoin dominance to go back up like it is as the market

628
01:00:10,250 --> 01:00:15,170
Speaker 1: starts to realize we need rate hikes, rate hikes and not rate cuts. The dollar generally

629
01:00:15,170 --> 01:00:21,050
Speaker 1: wants to go higher. That's at least my interpretation of of all of this. So

630
01:00:21,050 --> 01:00:27,890
Speaker 1: I hope you recognize why it's it's hard to sort of make videos that I know like

631
01:00:27,890 --> 01:00:33,130
Speaker 1: 100 ,000 people are going to see because people want answers and you know there's a common

632
01:00:33,130 --> 01:00:36,830
Speaker 1: saying there's a time to go long there's a time to go short and there's a time to go

633
01:00:36,830 --> 01:00:42,330
Speaker 1: fishing and I don't fish actually I've never been fishing in my entire life I like to just

634
01:00:42,330 --> 01:00:45,850
Speaker 1: go play chess right there's a time to go long there's time to go short there's a time to go

635
01:00:45,850 --> 01:00:49,910
Speaker 1: play chess for me there's a time to go play chess right I mean I'm just playing chess every

636
01:00:49,910 --> 01:00:54,250
Speaker 1: day just trying to see like waiting to see what happens but waiting to basically see who's

637
01:00:54,250 --> 01:00:59,690
Speaker 1: right right like are the are the bulls right or are the bears right and i was way more

638
01:00:59,690 --> 01:01:05,930
Speaker 1: convinced the bears were right a few weeks ago than than i am now with with these breakouts

639
01:01:05,930 --> 01:01:11,870
Speaker 1: right way more convinced back then um but i would say you know be willing to pivot very

640
01:01:11,870 --> 01:01:17,650
Speaker 1: quickly on whether this holds or not because if it if it if it holds

641
01:01:18,350 --> 01:01:25,330
Speaker 1: then we should be testing these highs probably before the end of the month right like you

642
01:01:25,330 --> 01:01:31,610
Speaker 1: can't Bitcoin can't just hang out down here without people starting to lose faith, okay? So

643
01:01:31,610 --> 01:01:38,330
Speaker 1: if this holds, if the 50 -day holds, we should be at new local highs before the end of the

644
01:01:38,330 --> 01:01:43,190
Speaker 1: month. And if it doesn't hold, then we should be heading back down to the bottom of the

645
01:01:43,190 --> 01:01:49,850
Speaker 1: range really, really soon. So this is what you got to watch, right? These levels right

646
01:01:49,850 --> 01:01:50,050
Speaker 1: here.

647
01:01:51,630 --> 01:01:55,150
Speaker 1: By the way, I mean, certain things are already below these levels. if you look like

648
01:01:55,150 --> 01:01:59,770
Speaker 1: ethereum it's been struggling a lot more total two i think total three has been a little

649
01:01:59,770 --> 01:02:03,890
Speaker 1: stronger it's it's actually below the 50 day but there's times where total three gets below

650
01:02:03,890 --> 01:02:08,910
Speaker 1: it and then recovers without bitcoin going below it so don't put too much faith into that

651
01:02:08,910 --> 01:02:13,830
Speaker 1: same thing with total two right like total two is already below it total is the one i think

652
01:02:13,830 --> 01:02:20,030
Speaker 1: to track and really right now bitcoin looks stronger at these levels than it did back in

653
01:02:20,030 --> 01:02:25,090
Speaker 1: may because if you look at where it is it's actually above the 50 day right now uh you know

654
01:02:25,090 --> 01:02:30,050
Speaker 1: several percent above it whereas back in may it was kind of just right on the line after

655
01:02:30,050 --> 01:02:35,750
Speaker 1: after that drop like basically saying that this drop here this wick down is kind of similar

656
01:02:35,750 --> 01:02:36,230
Speaker 1: to this one

657
01:02:38,540 --> 01:02:45,440
Speaker 1: so decision time is coming very very soon

658
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:51,240
Speaker 1: one more thing i know this video is is kind of short right now so let me make it even

659
01:02:51,240 --> 01:02:57,060
Speaker 1: longer um the bitcoin silver valuation and the bitcoin gold valuation

660
01:02:57,060 --> 01:03:02,920
Speaker 1: this is tricky the bitcoin silver valuation to me

661
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:08,680
Speaker 1: i can't i can't sit here on the bitcoin silver valuation and call for for much lower than i

662
01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:14,260
Speaker 1: already went because i was already under the impression that just sweeping the low would be

663
01:03:14,260 --> 01:03:20,940
Speaker 1: good enough. So against silver, I would say Bitcoin probably has

664
01:03:20,940 --> 01:03:26,660
Speaker 1: bottomed for a long time. But the problem is against gold.

665
01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:33,420
Speaker 1: Against gold, I don't know that it has. I really don't know because I, you know, when you

666
01:03:33,420 --> 01:03:38,220
Speaker 1: have these ranges like this, normally what happens is you eventually test them. Even though

667
01:03:38,220 --> 01:03:43,840
Speaker 1: you don't want to, you eventually test them. It's no different than the ETH Bitcoin chart,

668
01:03:44,200 --> 01:03:49,660
Speaker 1: the ETH market cap divided by the Bitcoin market cap chart. I spent years telling people

669
01:03:49,660 --> 01:03:54,060
Speaker 1: that this thing was heading back down to the floor. And it did eventually, right? It did

670
01:03:54,060 --> 01:03:59,400
Speaker 1: eventually. It took a long time. And eventually it did. Same thing with Solana. I spent

671
01:03:59,400 --> 01:04:03,820
Speaker 1: years telling people that this thing was heading back down to the floor. Guess what? It

672
01:04:03,820 --> 01:04:08,920
Speaker 1: hasn't yet. And guess what? I will continue to spend years telling you that it probably

673
01:04:08,920 --> 01:04:13,000
Speaker 1: eventually will and i might be wrong about it there are a few altcoins that go against what

674
01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:18,980
Speaker 1: i think but it's hard to look at these charts and not just assume that eventually this just

675
01:04:18,980 --> 01:04:22,620
Speaker 1: comes back down to the lows the range lows people didn't think it was going to happen with

676
01:04:22,620 --> 01:04:28,440
Speaker 1: eth and it did i think it'll happen with solana too and when you look at the bitcoin gold

677
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:30,120
Speaker 1: valuation that

678
01:04:33,120 --> 01:04:36,440
Speaker 1: was my base case when i sort of said it a few weeks ago and then bitcoin just kind of kept

679
01:04:36,440 --> 01:04:42,520
Speaker 1: going up you might say well how is this possible like how could how could bitcoin have

680
01:04:42,520 --> 01:04:48,600
Speaker 1: bottomed against silver but not against gold that's a great question right but i have a

681
01:04:48,600 --> 01:04:54,220
Speaker 1: great answer for it in 1974 that's probably exactly what you thought i was going to say

682
01:04:54,220 --> 01:05:01,140
Speaker 1: next right in 1974 silver had a similar move it topped in in early part

683
01:05:01,140 --> 01:05:07,540
Speaker 1: in like february of 1974 and it dropped and it stayed at the lows for a couple of years

684
01:05:07,540 --> 01:05:11,800
Speaker 1: before going back up. But gold put

685
01:05:13,370 --> 01:05:15,770
Speaker 1: in a high in 1974

686
01:05:17,210 --> 01:05:24,090
Speaker 1: and then put in a higher high in late 1974, early 1975. So

687
01:05:24,090 --> 01:05:30,910
Speaker 1: that's exactly how it could happen. What if gold

688
01:05:30,910 --> 01:05:37,650
Speaker 1: bottoms soon, right? because yields are topping and gold starts to head back up. But

689
01:05:37,650 --> 01:05:44,350
Speaker 1: remember, in 1974, when gold went back up, silver went up, but not near the highs,

690
01:05:45,050 --> 01:05:52,010
Speaker 1: right? It consolidated for a while. And what you'll notice here is if you zoom out,

691
01:05:52,850 --> 01:05:59,590
Speaker 1: you look at the bar pattern in 1974 to silver's next top. I'm

692
01:05:59,590 --> 01:06:05,230
Speaker 1: saying, what if this is a similar type of move where silver spins a what maybe it rallies

693
01:06:05,230 --> 01:06:10,050
Speaker 1: soon as well like I could see it going back up into the mid 70s but then what if it kind of

694
01:06:10,050 --> 01:06:14,370
Speaker 1: consolidates and doesn't get another big move until the next midterm year

695
01:06:16,100 --> 01:06:22,740
Speaker 1: but during that period in 1974 gold dropped but then eventually it went back up

696
01:06:22,740 --> 01:06:28,060
Speaker 1: and if you don't know what I'm talking about or having a hard time visualizing it look at

697
01:06:28,060 --> 01:06:34,740
Speaker 1: the year -to -date ROI, right? If you look at the year -to -date ROI of gold in

698
01:06:37,240 --> 01:06:40,320
Speaker 1: 2026, right, and 1974,

699
01:06:42,300 --> 01:06:46,220
Speaker 1: you can see it rallied, it then dropped, and then it rallied to new highs before the end of

700
01:06:46,220 --> 01:06:50,740
Speaker 1: the year. But in that same year, when you look at silver,

701
01:06:54,110 --> 01:06:57,090
Speaker 1: we don't have it on here. Of course, we only go back to 1976.

702
01:06:58,330 --> 01:07:02,970
Speaker 1: But you can imagine, right? Like we sort of showed it on this chart. Silver put in a high

703
01:07:02,970 --> 01:07:07,350
Speaker 1: and i was just a lower high while it was a lower high in december while gold was going to

704
01:07:07,350 --> 01:07:13,690
Speaker 1: new all -time highs that is how is a way that this could all make sense that's the way in

705
01:07:13,690 --> 01:07:20,250
Speaker 1: which the bitcoin gold valuation could go back down here but the bitcoin silver

706
01:07:20,250 --> 01:07:27,230
Speaker 1: valuation has already bottomed because maybe silver doesn't participate in the

707
01:07:27,230 --> 01:07:29,790
Speaker 1: next rally to new highs like gold does

708
01:07:31,290 --> 01:07:36,550
Speaker 1: so that that's the way in which i think this could all make sense is that bitcoin bottomed

709
01:07:36,550 --> 01:07:42,790
Speaker 1: against silver but not yet against gold and what's interesting is is this ratio

710
01:07:42,790 --> 01:07:49,570
Speaker 1: of 10 is where it bottomed back over here so imagine imagine gold

711
01:07:49,570 --> 01:07:55,150
Speaker 1: you know ends up being that ratio you can do the math right i mean it's just if if bitcoin

712
01:07:55,150 --> 01:08:01,710
Speaker 1: if gold is 5k that puts bitcoin at 50k if gold is 6k that puts bitcoin at 60k right so you

713
01:08:01,710 --> 01:08:06,850
Speaker 1: can see where that ratio like what the price of bitcoin would be if the bitcoin gold

714
01:08:06,850 --> 01:08:13,830
Speaker 1: valuation hits 10 right you can kind of see that right you just it's 10x right it's

715
01:08:13,830 --> 01:08:20,690
Speaker 1: just 10x the move so if if the s p is uh or sorry if gold is 7 000 that's bitcoin at 70

716
01:08:20,690 --> 01:08:27,430
Speaker 1: 000. if gold is at 4 000 that's bitcoin at 40 000. but that is is

717
01:08:27,630 --> 01:08:30,950
Speaker 1: sort of the the thing i'm watching because you have sort of this move and it's kind of

718
01:08:30,950 --> 01:08:37,410
Speaker 1: going up if if bitcoin is a fake out and gold bottoms while bitcoin is topping

719
01:08:37,410 --> 01:08:42,070
Speaker 1: then this could quickly come back down and then you start back up just like it did with

720
01:08:42,070 --> 01:08:46,690
Speaker 1: silver it's just that with silver it already completely unwound but for gold it hasn't

721
01:08:46,690 --> 01:08:51,770
Speaker 1: completely unwound because it never swept the low, but it did for silver.

722
01:08:53,470 --> 01:08:58,910
Speaker 1: That's a lot, right? And I hope that... I know when I do these videos, a lot of people are

723
01:08:58,910 --> 01:09:02,750
Speaker 1: like, oh, well, you're saying it could go up or down. Yes, but I hope that some of you can

724
01:09:02,750 --> 01:09:09,170
Speaker 1: at least appreciate the intricacies of all of this stuff and why it is so complicated

725
01:09:09,170 --> 01:09:14,270
Speaker 1: to just say that this is what's exactly going to happen when so much of it just simply

726
01:09:14,270 --> 01:09:20,090
Speaker 1: depends on things that are completely outside of my control. I mean, if Trump comes out

727
01:09:20,090 --> 01:09:24,250
Speaker 1: tomorrow and says the war on Iran's over, then yields probably plummet and risk assets go

728
01:09:24,250 --> 01:09:28,830
Speaker 1: up, right? Like, who knows what's going to happen? That's why there's a lot of uncertainty.

729
01:09:29,310 --> 01:09:36,170
Speaker 1: That's why you defer to the chart and say, if this is a fake out, the chart

730
01:09:36,170 --> 01:09:36,870
Speaker 1: will tell me.

731
01:09:38,250 --> 01:09:41,690
Speaker 1: and if the chart doesn't tell me within the next week or two

732
01:09:43,470 --> 01:09:47,890
Speaker 1: more of the bear indicators are going to become bull indicators right people that are

733
01:09:47,890 --> 01:09:53,670
Speaker 1: bearish because it's q4 are going to turn bullish if this doesn't break down soon so that's

734
01:09:53,670 --> 01:09:59,070
Speaker 1: why where we are right now is so critical and and one of those things where i keep thinking

735
01:09:59,070 --> 01:10:03,190
Speaker 1: be careful what you wish for as much as it would have made sense for me to bitcoin to go

736
01:10:03,190 --> 01:10:09,710
Speaker 1: down in q4 it still very much could. If it does, it might, you know, it might really affect

737
01:10:09,710 --> 01:10:16,350
Speaker 1: the psyche of people that that were in this breakout. They would probably become sellers

738
01:10:16,350 --> 01:10:22,150
Speaker 1: in a few months if we if we rally back up. Now, if we if we drop down and put in a new low

739
01:10:22,150 --> 01:10:26,430
Speaker 1: by the end of the year, then I'm, you know, just sign me up for the bull market in 2027.

740
01:10:26,670 --> 01:10:31,210
Speaker 1: Right. But I'm saying if we if we just drop back down for a higher low and then come back

741
01:10:31,210 --> 01:10:35,970
Speaker 1: up, I mean, we'll cross that bridge if it happens. hopefully that's not what happens out of

742
01:10:35,970 --> 01:10:39,310
Speaker 1: all three scenarios that's what i would like the least right like if you had to tell me

743
01:10:39,310 --> 01:10:46,190
Speaker 1: there's three scenarios option one is we just bounce here and go up option two is we

744
01:10:46,190 --> 01:10:53,190
Speaker 1: break to a new low and then go up and option three is we break down and print a

745
01:10:53,190 --> 01:10:59,850
Speaker 1: higher low and go up the option i like the least is this one because this one is the one

746
01:10:59,850 --> 01:11:06,450
Speaker 1: that is most likely to lead to a longer downturn that would last a lot longer whereas the

747
01:11:06,450 --> 01:11:08,590
Speaker 1: other two outcomes i

748
01:11:09,840 --> 01:11:12,860
Speaker 1: think you could just say that this time's not different right like it's just more or less

749
01:11:12,860 --> 01:11:16,380
Speaker 1: the same stuff you know either one of these outcomes could theoretically end the same way

750
01:11:16,380 --> 01:11:20,760
Speaker 1: um so those are my views thank you guys for tuning in subscribe give the video a thumbs up

751
01:11:20,760 --> 01:11:25,220
Speaker 1: uh i know these videos are relatively short so my apologies for that we'll try to make the

752
01:11:25,220 --> 01:11:29,140
Speaker 1: next one longer um but those that's what i think if you guys want to come talk about this

753
01:11:29,140 --> 01:11:32,260
Speaker 1: stuff at the conference we have the investing through the cycles conference coming up i'm

754
01:11:32,260 --> 01:11:34,520
Speaker 1: going to be there we'll also have a lot of other people there they're going to have their

755
01:11:34,520 --> 01:11:39,980
Speaker 1: own opinions uh learn from them because as you know i'm certainly not always right uh in

756
01:11:39,980 --> 01:11:44,740
Speaker 1: fact i i had a pretty good run for a little while there uh recently i think uh i i've taken

757
01:11:44,740 --> 01:11:49,760
Speaker 1: a couple of hits but um that's normal in markets you just got to get back on your feet and

758
01:11:49,760 --> 01:11:53,180
Speaker 1: and try to recover from that so thank you guys for being here subscribe give the video a

759
01:11:53,180 --> 01:11:54,560
Speaker 1: thumbs up and i'll see you next time bye