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And what I think is happening right now is we are about at a decision point. I", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 159.04, "end": 159.32, "word": " case.", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 159.46, "end": 159.88, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 159.88, "end": 160.14, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 160.14, "end": 160.3, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 160.3, "end": 160.58, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 160.58, "end": 160.74, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 160.74, "end": 161.08, "word": " happening", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 161.08, "end": 161.32, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 161.32, "end": 161.7, "word": " now", "probability": 0.96826171875 }, { "start": 161.7, "end": 162.88, "word": " is", "probability": 0.89990234375 }, { "start": 162.88, "end": 163.06, "word": " we", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 163.06, "end": 163.28, "word": " are", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 163.28, "end": 164.5, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 164.5, "end": 164.7, "word": " at", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 164.7, "end": 164.74, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 164.74, "end": 165.02, "word": " decision", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 165.02, "end": 165.3, "word": " point.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 165.46, "end": 165.78, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 165.78, "end": 170.32, "text": "don't think we're going to sit here much longer in the low 80s. We're either going to go up", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 165.78, "end": 166.08, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 166.08, "end": 166.28, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 166.28, "end": 166.46, "word": " we're", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 166.46, "end": 166.56, "word": " going", "probability": 0.97119140625 }, { "start": 166.56, "end": 166.66, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 166.66, "end": 166.86, "word": " sit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 166.86, "end": 167.2, "word": " here", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 167.2, "end": 167.5, "word": " much", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 167.5, "end": 167.86, "word": " longer", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 167.86, "end": 168.12, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 168.12, "end": 168.2, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 168.2, "end": 168.36, "word": " low", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 168.36, "end": 168.82, "word": " 80s.", "probability": 0.993408203125 }, { "start": 168.9, "end": 169.36, "word": " We're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 169.36, "end": 169.54, "word": " either", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 169.54, "end": 169.7, "word": " going", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 169.7, "end": 169.78, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 169.78, "end": 169.98, "word": " go", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 169.98, "end": 170.32, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 170.32, "end": 177.2, "text": "and print a new local high above 87k really, really soon. Or it's going to be a fake", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 170.32, "end": 171.2, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 171.2, "end": 171.7, "word": " print", "probability": 0.96923828125 }, { "start": 171.7, "end": 171.86, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 171.86, "end": 172.0, "word": " new", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 172.0, "end": 172.32, "word": " local", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 172.32, "end": 172.72, "word": " high", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 172.72, "end": 173.16, "word": " above", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 173.16, "end": 173.8, "word": " 87k", "probability": 0.900634765625 }, { "start": 173.8, "end": 174.56, "word": " really,", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 174.68, "end": 174.82, "word": " really", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 174.82, "end": 175.18, "word": " soon.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 175.38, "end": 175.92, "word": " Or", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 175.92, "end": 176.62, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 176.62, "end": 176.7, "word": " going", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 176.7, "end": 176.78, "word": " to", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 176.78, "end": 176.86, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 176.86, "end": 176.98, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 176.98, "end": 177.2, "word": " fake", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 177.2, "end": 182.44, "text": "breakout and then all the technical indicators break down. So let's go through so that you", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 177.2, "end": 177.66, "word": " breakout", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 177.66, "end": 177.96, "word": " and", "probability": 0.67724609375 }, { "start": 177.96, "end": 178.08, "word": " then", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 178.08, "end": 178.24, "word": " all", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 178.24, "end": 178.4, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 178.4, "end": 178.7, "word": " technical", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 178.7, "end": 179.18, "word": " indicators", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 179.18, "end": 179.4, "word": " break", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 179.4, "end": 179.56, "word": " down.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 179.72, "end": 180.14, "word": " So", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 180.14, "end": 180.94, "word": " let's", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 180.94, "end": 181.1, "word": " go", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 181.1, "end": 181.42, "word": " through", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 181.42, "end": 182.08, "word": " so", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 182.08, "end": 182.24, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 182.24, "end": 182.44, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 182.44, "end": 189.26, "text": "can understand where we are and why there is so much disagreement. Okay. 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And one of", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 200.6, "end": 201.16, "word": " analysis", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 201.16, "end": 201.9, "word": " and,", "probability": 0.85302734375 }, { "start": 201.9, "end": 202.46, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 202.46, "end": 202.54, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 202.6, "end": 202.7, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 202.7, "end": 203.36, "word": " RSI,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 203.68, "end": 203.7, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 203.7, "end": 204.1, "word": " MACD,", "probability": 0.974365234375 }, { "start": 204.38, "end": 204.86, "word": " there's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 204.86, "end": 204.96, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 204.96, "end": 205.38, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 205.38, "end": 205.62, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 205.62, "end": 205.74, "word": " they", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 205.74, "end": 205.9, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 205.9, "end": 206.14, "word": " point", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 206.14, "end": 206.32, "word": " to.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 206.46, "end": 206.56, "word": " And", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 206.56, "end": 207.14, "word": " one", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 207.14, "end": 207.24, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 207.24, "end": 213.08, "text": "the simplest things that they can point to is the fact that Bitcoin had a golden cross,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 207.24, "end": 207.38, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 207.38, "end": 207.78, "word": " simplest", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 207.78, "end": 208.18, "word": " things", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 208.18, "end": 208.4, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 208.4, "end": 208.52, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 208.52, "end": 208.68, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 208.68, "end": 208.9, "word": " point", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 208.9, "end": 209.14, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 209.14, "end": 209.82, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 209.82, "end": 209.98, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 209.98, "end": 210.3, "word": " fact", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 210.3, "end": 210.66, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 210.66, "end": 211.14, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 211.14, "end": 212.3, "word": " had", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 212.3, "end": 212.44, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 212.44, "end": 212.62, "word": " golden", "probability": 0.91796875 }, { "start": 212.62, "end": 213.08, "word": " cross,", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 213.46, "end": 217.9, "text": "right? 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Like you can't, if you're a bear, you can't look at that and", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 236.26, "end": 236.48, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 236.48, "end": 236.66, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 236.66, "end": 237.1, "word": " fairly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 237.1, "end": 237.52, "word": " normal,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 237.76, "end": 237.92, "word": " right?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 238.02, "end": 238.14, "word": " Like", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 238.14, "end": 238.26, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 238.26, "end": 238.7, "word": " can't,", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 238.8, "end": 239.36, "word": " if", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 239.36, "end": 239.52, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 239.52, "end": 239.6, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 239.6, "end": 239.84, "word": " bear,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 240.04, "end": 240.12, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 240.12, "end": 240.38, "word": " can't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 240.38, "end": 240.52, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 240.52, "end": 240.66, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 240.66, "end": 240.92, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 240.92, "end": 241.1, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 241.1, "end": 247.78, "text": "say that that's necessarily bearish on its own. It is retesting a prior high. And", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 241.1, "end": 241.3, "word": " say", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 241.3, "end": 241.56, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 241.56, "end": 241.96, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 241.96, "end": 242.56, "word": " necessarily", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 242.56, "end": 243.06, "word": " bearish", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 243.06, "end": 243.22, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 243.22, "end": 243.38, "word": " its", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 243.38, "end": 243.68, "word": " own.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 243.96, "end": 244.62, "word": " It", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 244.62, "end": 245.0, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 245.0, "end": 245.98, "word": " retesting", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 245.98, "end": 246.24, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 246.24, "end": 246.54, "word": " prior", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 246.54, "end": 246.9, "word": " high.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 247.12, "end": 247.78, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99560546875 } ] }, { "start": 247.78, "end": 254.32, "text": "what you'll notice is that when Bitcoin has previously broken down from sort of like a wick", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 247.78, "end": 248.14, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 248.14, "end": 248.32, "word": " you'll", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 248.32, "end": 248.6, "word": " notice", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 248.6, "end": 249.02, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 249.02, "end": 249.32, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 249.32, "end": 250.06, "word": " when", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 250.06, "end": 250.46, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 250.46, "end": 251.2, "word": " has", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 251.2, "end": 252.0, "word": " previously", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 252.0, "end": 252.46, "word": " broken", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 252.46, "end": 252.84, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 252.84, "end": 253.12, "word": " from", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 253.12, "end": 253.3, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.97900390625 }, { "start": 253.3, "end": 253.4, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 253.4, "end": 253.56, "word": " like", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 253.56, "end": 253.76, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 253.76, "end": 254.32, "word": " wick", "probability": 0.964111328125 } ] }, { "start": 254.32, "end": 261.24, "text": "low, that formed a bottom that then yielded a new high. 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Why can't we just do the same thing we did last time, right?", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 267.62, "end": 268.84, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 268.84, "end": 269.16, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 269.16, "end": 269.58, "word": " if", "probability": 0.98828125 }, { "start": 269.58, "end": 269.76, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 269.76, "end": 270.12, "word": " swept", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 270.12, "end": 270.34, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 270.34, "end": 270.58, "word": " low?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 270.78, "end": 271.18, "word": " Why", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 271.18, "end": 271.54, "word": " can't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 271.54, "end": 271.74, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 271.74, "end": 272.3, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 272.3, "end": 273.04, "word": " do", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 273.04, "end": 273.18, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 273.18, "end": 273.34, "word": " same", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 273.34, "end": 273.46, "word": " thing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 273.46, "end": 273.6, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 273.6, "end": 273.7, "word": " did", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 273.7, "end": 273.94, "word": " last", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 273.94, "end": 274.16, "word": " time,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 274.26, "end": 274.32, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99462890625 } ] }, { "start": 274.48, "end": 279.44, "text": "Sweep the low, consolidate over the weekend, you know, potentially, and then head back up", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 274.48, "end": 274.68, "word": " Sweep", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 274.68, "end": 274.84, "word": " the", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 274.84, "end": 275.12, "word": " low,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 275.64, "end": 276.12, "word": " consolidate", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 276.12, "end": 276.46, "word": " over", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 276.46, "end": 276.6, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 276.6, "end": 277.04, "word": " weekend,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 277.32, "end": 277.7, "word": " you", "probability": 0.85888671875 }, { "start": 277.7, "end": 277.8, "word": " know,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 277.96, "end": 278.26, "word": " potentially,", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 278.54, "end": 278.62, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 278.62, "end": 278.76, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 278.76, "end": 278.98, "word": " head", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 278.98, "end": 279.24, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 279.24, "end": 279.44, "word": " up", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 279.44, "end": 286.22, "text": "by Sunday night. Okay. Now, this is certainly a compelling case. Now, I've,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 279.44, "end": 279.66, "word": " by", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 279.66, "end": 279.98, "word": " Sunday", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 279.98, "end": 280.24, "word": " night.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 280.46, "end": 280.98, "word": " Okay.", "probability": 0.90478515625 }, { "start": 281.62, "end": 282.14, "word": " Now,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 282.3, "end": 283.08, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 283.08, "end": 283.62, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 283.62, "end": 284.38, "word": " certainly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 284.38, "end": 284.6, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 284.6, "end": 284.88, "word": " compelling", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 284.88, "end": 285.2, "word": " case.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 285.38, "end": 285.68, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 285.92, "end": 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But", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 305.1, "end": 305.44, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 305.44, "end": 306.36, "word": " said", "probability": 0.796875 }, { "start": 306.36, "end": 306.56, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 306.56, "end": 306.74, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 306.74, "end": 307.14, "word": " thought", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 307.14, "end": 307.34, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 307.34, "end": 307.44, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 307.44, "end": 307.76, "word": " forming", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 307.76, "end": 308.04, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 308.04, "end": 308.38, "word": " low", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 308.38, "end": 308.64, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 308.64, "end": 309.02, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 309.02, "end": 309.86, "word": " at", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 309.86, "end": 310.68, "word": " 57K.", "probability": 0.745849609375 }, { "start": 311.14, "end": 311.68, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 311.68, "end": 317.98, "text": "what I was not expecting was I was not expecting the rally to take out the prior high. OK,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 311.68, "end": 312.2, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 312.2, "end": 312.32, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 312.32, "end": 312.52, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 312.52, "end": 312.82, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 312.82, "end": 313.4, "word": " expecting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 313.4, "end": 314.04, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 314.04, "end": 314.58, "word": " I", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 314.58, "end": 314.74, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 314.74, "end": 315.0, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 315.0, "end": 315.48, "word": " expecting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 315.48, "end": 315.66, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 315.66, "end": 316.0, "word": " rally", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 316.0, "end": 316.28, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 316.28, "end": 316.5, "word": " take", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 316.5, "end": 316.66, "word": " out", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 316.66, "end": 316.82, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 316.82, "end": 317.06, "word": " prior", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 317.06, "end": 317.42, "word": " high.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 317.62, "end": 317.98, "word": " OK,", "probability": 0.89306640625 } ] }, { "start": 318.34, "end": 324.64, "text": "and that kind of messed me up a little bit because it made sense for the low to occur. at", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 318.34, "end": 318.64, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 318.64, "end": 318.94, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 318.94, "end": 319.14, "word": " kind", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 319.14, "end": 319.32, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 319.32, "end": 320.3, "word": " messed", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 320.3, "end": 320.48, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 320.48, "end": 320.7, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 320.7, "end": 320.84, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 320.84, "end": 320.94, "word": " little", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 320.94, "end": 321.14, "word": " bit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 321.14, "end": 321.4, "word": " because", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 321.4, "end": 321.66, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 321.66, "end": 321.98, "word": " made", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 321.98, "end": 322.46, "word": " sense", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 322.46, "end": 322.8, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 322.8, "end": 322.96, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 322.96, "end": 323.22, "word": " low", "probability": 0.97802734375 }, { "start": 323.22, "end": 323.48, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 323.48, "end": 323.84, "word": " occur.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 324.1, "end": 324.64, "word": " at", "probability": 0.82568359375 } ] }, { "start": 324.64, "end": 330.46, "text": "around 57k. I mean, in 2018, we had a low at 5700. And we talked a lot about how the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 324.64, "end": 324.88, "word": " around", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 324.88, "end": 325.6, "word": " 57k.", "probability": 0.769287109375 }, { "start": 325.8, "end": 325.8, "word": " I", "probability": 0.98193359375 }, { "start": 325.8, "end": 325.88, "word": " mean,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 326.0, "end": 326.02, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 326.02, "end": 326.42, "word": " 2018,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 326.44, "end": 326.78, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 326.78, "end": 326.94, "word": " had", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 326.94, "end": 327.02, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 327.02, "end": 327.24, "word": " low", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 327.24, "end": 327.48, "word": " at", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 327.48, "end": 328.2, "word": " 5700.", "probability": 0.89599609375 }, { "start": 328.22, "end": 328.68, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 328.68, "end": 329.14, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 329.14, "end": 329.4, "word": " talked", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 329.4, "end": 329.6, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 329.6, "end": 329.74, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 329.74, "end": 329.94, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 329.94, "end": 330.24, "word": " how", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 330.24, "end": 330.46, "word": " the", "probability": 0.98095703125 } ] }, { "start": 330.46, "end": 336.82, "text": "structure of the market is very similar in terms of like, you know, a February low in both", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 330.46, "end": 331.12, "word": " structure", "probability": 0.98681640625 }, { "start": 331.12, "end": 331.3, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 331.3, "end": 331.4, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 331.4, "end": 331.72, "word": " market", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 331.72, "end": 332.5, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 332.5, "end": 332.8, "word": " very", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 332.8, "end": 333.18, "word": " similar", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 333.18, "end": 333.42, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 333.42, "end": 333.64, "word": " terms", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 333.64, "end": 333.84, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 333.84, "end": 334.04, "word": " like,", "probability": 0.97314453125 }, { "start": 334.08, "end": 334.2, "word": " you", "probability": 0.970703125 }, { "start": 334.2, "end": 334.28, "word": " know,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 334.72, "end": 335.02, "word": " a", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 335.02, "end": 335.38, "word": " February", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 335.38, "end": 335.84, "word": " low", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 335.84, "end": 336.62, "word": " in", "probability": 0.93505859375 }, { "start": 336.62, "end": 336.82, "word": " both", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 336.82, "end": 343.44, "text": "cases, and then a lower high in May, and then a lower low in the summer. And then you get", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 336.82, "end": 337.28, "word": " cases,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 337.28, "end": 337.94, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 337.94, "end": 338.08, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 338.08, "end": 338.44, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 338.44, "end": 339.6, "word": " lower", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 339.6, "end": 339.92, "word": " high", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 339.92, "end": 340.3, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 340.3, "end": 340.68, "word": " May,", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 340.86, "end": 341.24, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 341.24, "end": 341.32, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 341.32, "end": 341.42, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 341.42, "end": 341.64, "word": " lower", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 341.64, "end": 341.86, "word": " low", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 341.86, "end": 342.04, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 342.04, "end": 342.12, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 342.12, "end": 342.38, "word": " summer.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 342.54, "end": 343.0, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 343.0, "end": 343.12, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 343.12, "end": 343.24, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 343.24, "end": 343.44, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 343.44, "end": 349.1, "text": "your your summer rally in q3. And then you get your typical q4 dump. And that was kind of", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 343.44, "end": 343.8, "word": " your", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 343.8, "end": 344.12, "word": " your", "probability": 0.50537109375 }, { "start": 344.12, "end": 344.52, "word": " summer", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 344.52, "end": 344.96, "word": " rally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 344.96, "end": 345.18, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9365234375 }, { "start": 345.18, "end": 345.76, "word": " q3.", "probability": 0.6217041015625 }, { "start": 346.08, "end": 346.54, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 346.54, "end": 346.68, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 346.68, "end": 346.8, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 346.8, "end": 346.94, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 346.94, "end": 347.08, "word": " your", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 347.08, "end": 347.36, "word": " typical", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 347.36, "end": 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You could say, look, Bitcoin is now above the 50 -week", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 376.48, "end": 376.96, "word": " longer", "probability": 0.83203125 }, { "start": 376.96, "end": 377.24, "word": " term", "probability": 0.80517578125 }, { "start": 377.24, "end": 377.5, "word": " moving", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 377.5, "end": 377.94, "word": " averages,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 378.44, "end": 378.56, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.89404296875 }, { "start": 378.74, "end": 378.82, "word": " You", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 378.82, "end": 378.96, "word": " could", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 378.96, "end": 379.14, "word": " say,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 379.26, "end": 379.42, "word": " look,", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 379.56, "end": 379.96, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 379.96, "end": 380.76, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 380.76, "end": 381.04, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 381.04, "end": 381.28, "word": " above", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 381.28, "end": 381.42, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 381.42, "end": 381.66, "word": " 50", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 381.66, "end": 381.8, "word": "-week", "probability": 0.67724609375 } ] }, { "start": 381.8, "end": 386.76, "text": "moving average. 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477.36, "text": "comparison for years that this entire move here is more like this move", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 471.16, "end": 471.54, "word": " comparison", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 471.54, "end": 471.86, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 471.86, "end": 472.26, "word": " years", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 472.26, "end": 473.0, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 473.0, "end": 473.42, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 473.42, "end": 474.04, "word": " entire", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 474.04, "end": 474.48, "word": " move", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 474.48, "end": 474.88, "word": " here", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 475.64, "end": 476.24, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 476.24, "end": 476.5, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 476.5, "end": 476.78, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 476.78, "end": 477.08, "word": " this", 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But now, of course, it makes more sense for them to favor it because it more so", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 485.25, "end": 485.41, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 485.41, "end": 485.81, "word": " 2019.", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 486.03, "end": 486.47, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 486.47, "end": 486.95, "word": " now,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 487.15, "end": 488.19, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.19, "end": 488.35, "word": " course,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.47, "end": 488.57, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.57, "end": 488.75, "word": " makes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.75, "end": 488.93, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.93, "end": 489.19, "word": " sense", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.19, "end": 489.33, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.33, "end": 489.45, "word": " them", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 489.45, "end": 489.63, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.63, "end": 490.15, "word": " favor", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 490.15, "end": 490.33, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 490.33, "end": 490.59, "word": " because", "probability": 0.94873046875 }, { "start": 490.59, "end": 490.83, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 490.83, "end": 491.05, "word": " more", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 491.05, "end": 491.23, "word": " so", "probability": 0.998046875 } ] }, { "start": 491.23, "end": 497.69, "text": "aligns with their bias. And so what I was saying was that the 2019 post", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 491.23, "end": 491.61, "word": " aligns", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 491.61, "end": 491.71, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 491.71, "end": 491.85, "word": " their", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 491.85, "end": 492.21, "word": " bias.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 492.41, "end": 492.93, "word": " And", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 492.93, "end": 493.17, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.17, "end": 493.69, "word": " what", "probability": 0.98486328125 }, { "start": 493.69, "end": 493.83, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.83, "end": 493.97, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.97, "end": 494.23, "word": " saying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 494.23, "end": 494.57, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 494.57, "end": 495.25, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 495.25, "end": 495.85, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 495.85, "end": 496.55, "word": " 2019", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 496.55, "end": 497.69, "word": " post", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 497.69, "end": 504.27, "text": "apathetic top downturn would align with the 2026 bear market.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 497.69, "end": 498.77, "word": " apathetic", "probability": 0.7915852864583334 }, { "start": 498.77, "end": 499.13, "word": " top", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 499.13, "end": 499.93, "word": " downturn", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 499.93, "end": 500.71, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 500.71, "end": 501.39, "word": " align", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 501.39, "end": 501.93, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 501.93, "end": 502.11, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 502.11, "end": 503.09, "word": " 2026", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 503.09, "end": 503.85, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 503.85, "end": 504.27, "word": " market.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 504.47, "end": 511.47, "text": "Now, what's interesting is if you overlay the 2019 bear market with where Bitcoin is", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 504.47, "end": 504.95, "word": " Now,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 505.11, "end": 505.31, "word": " what's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 505.31, "end": 505.79, "word": " interesting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 505.79, "end": 506.23, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 506.23, "end": 506.41, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 506.41, "end": 506.57, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 506.57, "end": 507.39, "word": " overlay", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 507.39, "end": 508.33, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 508.33, "end": 508.93, "word": " 2019", "probability": 0.9462890625 }, { "start": 508.93, "end": 509.33, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 509.33, "end": 509.79, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 509.79, "end": 510.61, "word": " with", "probability": 0.8544921875 }, { "start": 510.61, "end": 510.81, "word": " where", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 510.81, "end": 511.09, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 511.09, "end": 511.47, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 511.47, "end": 516.45, "text": "now, you can see that the lows would have occurred at around the same time. But what's", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 511.47, "end": 511.83, "word": " now,", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 512.07, "end": 512.49, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 512.49, "end": 512.67, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 512.67, "end": 512.89, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 512.89, "end": 513.09, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 513.09, "end": 513.23, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 513.23, "end": 513.71, "word": " lows", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 513.71, "end": 513.93, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 513.93, "end": 514.01, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 514.01, "end": 514.29, "word": " occurred", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 514.29, "end": 514.51, "word": " at", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 514.51, "end": 514.71, "word": " around", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 514.71, "end": 514.87, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 514.87, "end": 515.09, "word": " same", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 515.09, "end": 515.47, "word": " time.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 515.73, "end": 516.17, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 516.17, "end": 516.45, "word": " what's", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 516.45, "end": 522.81, "text": "different is that in 2019, there was price -based capitulation where we reset", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 516.45, "end": 517.01, "word": " different", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 517.01, "end": 517.85, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 517.85, "end": 518.03, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 518.03, "end": 518.19, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 518.19, "end": 518.81, "word": " 2019,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 518.81, "end": 519.51, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 519.51, "end": 519.71, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 519.71, "end": 520.27, "word": " price", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 520.27, "end": 520.55, "word": "-based", "probability": 0.80615234375 }, { "start": 520.55, "end": 521.29, "word": " capitulation", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 521.29, "end": 521.95, "word": " where", "probability": 0.916015625 }, { "start": 521.95, "end": 522.17, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 522.17, "end": 522.81, "word": " reset", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 522.81, "end": 528.63, "text": "a lot of the on -chain indicators, right? So if you're just looking at it like this, you", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 522.81, "end": 523.59, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 523.59, "end": 523.71, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 523.71, "end": 523.83, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 523.83, "end": 523.91, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 523.91, "end": 524.11, "word": " on", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 524.11, "end": 524.25, "word": "-chain", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 524.25, "end": 524.81, "word": " indicators,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 525.39, "end": 525.59, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 525.89, "end": 526.33, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 526.33, "end": 527.13, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9462890625 }, { "start": 527.13, "end": 527.29, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 527.29, "end": 527.51, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 527.51, "end": 527.77, "word": " looking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 527.77, "end": 527.95, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 527.95, "end": 528.03, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 528.03, "end": 528.19, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 528.19, "end": 528.47, "word": " this,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 528.59, "end": 528.63, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 528.63, "end": 533.71, "text": "could say, well, look, Bitcoin had about a nine -month bear market, but it also had a nine", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 528.63, "end": 528.73, "word": " could", "probability": 0.984375 }, { "start": 528.73, "end": 528.87, "word": " say,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 528.97, "end": 529.03, "word": " well,", "probability": 0.98486328125 }, { "start": 529.15, "end": 529.33, "word": " look,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 529.79, "end": 530.23, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 530.23, "end": 530.57, "word": " had", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 530.57, "end": 530.79, "word": " about", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 530.79, "end": 530.95, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 530.95, "end": 531.23, "word": " nine", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 531.23, "end": 531.45, "word": "-month", "probability": 0.981689453125 }, { "start": 531.45, "end": 531.65, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 531.65, "end": 532.07, "word": " market,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.07, "end": 533.05, "word": " but", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 533.05, "end": 533.15, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 533.15, "end": 533.33, "word": " also", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 533.33, "end": 533.49, "word": " had", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 533.49, "end": 533.55, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 533.55, "end": 533.71, "word": " nine", "probability": 0.9970703125 } ] }, { "start": 533.71, "end": 539.85, "text": "-month bear market after the 2019 apathetic top as well. So why is that not enough? 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You can't deny it. 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Like, I'm not just going to, you know, I'm", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 726.78, "end": 726.86, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 726.86, "end": 726.9, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 726.98, "end": 727.06, "word": " how", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 727.06, "end": 727.24, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 727.24, "end": 727.44, "word": " thinking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 727.44, "end": 727.62, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 727.62, "end": 727.74, "word": " it", "probability": 0.93701171875 }, { "start": 727.74, "end": 727.84, "word": " at", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 727.84, "end": 727.88, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 727.88, "end": 728.04, "word": " end.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 728.12, "end": 728.18, "word": " Like,", "probability": 0.974609375 }, { "start": 728.2, "end": 728.3, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, 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right? Because that's not your typical year -long", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 869.98, "end": 870.86, "word": " seems", "probability": 0.85986328125 }, { "start": 870.86, "end": 871.04, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 871.04, "end": 871.18, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 871.18, "end": 871.5, "word": " pretty", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 871.5, "end": 871.84, "word": " long", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 871.84, "end": 872.06, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 872.06, "end": 872.52, "word": " market,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 872.76, "end": 872.88, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.9501953125 }, { "start": 873.02, "end": 873.24, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 873.24, "end": 873.58, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 873.58, "end": 873.92, "word": " not", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 873.92, "end": 875.08, "word": " your", "probability": 0.6015625 }, { "start": 875.08, "end": 875.46, "word": " typical", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 875.46, "end": 875.82, "word": " year", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 875.82, "end": 876.0, "word": "-long", "probability": 0.7420654296875 } ] }, { "start": 876.0, "end": 882.66, "text": "bear market. And if you're looking at late December, that's closer to 60 weeks rather", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 876.0, "end": 876.26, "word": " bear", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 876.26, "end": 876.7, "word": " market.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 876.86, "end": 877.32, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 877.32, "end": 877.72, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 877.72, "end": 877.86, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 877.86, "end": 878.1, "word": " looking", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 878.1, "end": 878.36, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 878.36, "end": 878.88, "word": " late", "probability": 0.9775390625 }, { "start": 878.88, "end": 879.48, "word": " December,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 879.48, "end": 880.36, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 880.36, "end": 880.72, "word": " closer", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 880.72, "end": 881.12, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 881.12, "end": 881.64, "word": " 60", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 881.64, "end": 882.06, "word": " weeks", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 882.06, "end": 882.66, "word": " rather", "probability": 0.966796875 } ] }, { "start": 882.66, "end": 889.6, "text": "than 52 or 54. And if you look at the last two bear markets, the last one was about 54", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 882.66, "end": 883.08, "word": " than", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 883.08, "end": 884.1, "word": " 52", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 884.1, "end": 884.42, "word": " or", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 884.42, "end": 884.84, "word": " 54.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 885.18, "end": 885.56, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 885.56, "end": 885.7, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 885.7, "end": 885.76, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 885.76, "end": 885.9, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 885.9, "end": 885.98, "word": " at", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 885.98, "end": 886.06, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 886.06, "end": 886.3, "word": " last", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 886.3, "end": 886.48, "word": " two", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 886.48, "end": 886.68, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 886.68, "end": 887.2, "word": " markets,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 887.48, "end": 887.96, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 887.96, "end": 888.26, "word": " last", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 888.26, "end": 888.42, "word": " one", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 888.42, "end": 888.6, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 888.6, "end": 888.92, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 888.92, "end": 889.6, "word": " 54", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 889.6, "end": 896.56, "text": "weeks, and the one before that was about 52 weeks. As it stands right now", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 889.6, "end": 890.12, "word": " weeks,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 890.12, "end": 890.9, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 890.9, "end": 891.02, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 891.02, "end": 891.16, "word": " one", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 891.16, "end": 891.44, "word": " before", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 891.44, "end": 891.92, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 891.92, "end": 892.92, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 892.92, "end": 893.26, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 893.26, "end": 894.04, "word": " 52", "probability": 0.8173828125 }, { "start": 894.04, "end": 894.74, "word": " weeks.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 894.92, "end": 895.56, "word": " As", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 895.56, "end": 895.68, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 895.68, "end": 896.02, "word": " stands", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 896.02, "end": 896.26, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 896.26, "end": 896.56, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 896.56, "end": 903.5, "text": "where the current low is, this bear market was about 38 weeks, which is more in", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 896.56, "end": 896.76, "word": " where", "probability": 0.48828125 }, { "start": 896.76, "end": 896.9, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 896.9, "end": 897.14, "word": " current", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 897.14, "end": 897.48, "word": " low", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 897.48, "end": 897.98, "word": " is,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 897.98, "end": 898.72, "word": " this", "probability": 0.771484375 }, { "start": 898.72, "end": 898.92, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 898.92, "end": 899.3, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 899.3, "end": 900.62, "word": " was", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 900.62, "end": 901.06, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 901.06, "end": 901.74, "word": " 38", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 901.74, "end": 902.26, "word": " weeks,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 902.48, "end": 902.78, "word": " which", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 902.78, "end": 902.94, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 902.94, "end": 903.28, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 903.28, "end": 903.5, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 903.5, "end": 909.86, "text": "line with what happened in 2019, where it was about 37 weeks. However, again, back then we", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 903.5, "end": 903.72, "word": " line", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 903.72, "end": 903.9, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 903.9, "end": 904.04, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 904.04, "end": 904.38, "word": " happened", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 904.38, "end": 904.56, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 904.56, "end": 905.1, "word": " 2019,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 905.1, "end": 905.94, "word": " where", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 905.94, "end": 906.04, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 906.04, "end": 906.14, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 906.14, "end": 906.34, "word": " about", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 906.34, "end": 906.82, "word": " 37", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 906.82, "end": 907.34, "word": " weeks.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 907.72, "end": 907.92, "word": " However,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 908.52, "end": 908.8, "word": " again,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 909.14, "end": 909.44, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 909.44, "end": 909.68, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 909.68, "end": 909.86, "word": " we", "probability": 0.77978515625 } ] }, { "start": 909.86, "end": 915.72, "text": "had price based capitulation. Now, if you go further back, there are bear markets that are", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 909.86, "end": 910.12, "word": " had", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 910.12, "end": 910.5, "word": " price", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 910.5, "end": 910.74, "word": " based", "probability": 0.8037109375 }, { "start": 910.74, "end": 911.36, "word": " capitulation.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 911.78, "end": 912.34, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 912.5, "end": 912.72, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 912.72, "end": 912.84, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 912.84, "end": 913.0, "word": " go", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 913.0, "end": 913.44, "word": " further", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 913.44, "end": 913.92, "word": " back,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 914.16, "end": 914.58, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 914.58, "end": 914.86, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 914.86, "end": 915.06, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 915.06, "end": 915.46, "word": " markets", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 915.46, "end": 915.62, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 915.62, "end": 915.72, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 915.72, "end": 921.66, "text": "longer. For instance, the bear market in 2013 actually lasted about 59 weeks. So it's not", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 915.72, "end": 916.06, "word": " longer.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 916.22, "end": 916.3, "word": " For", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 916.3, "end": 916.58, "word": " instance,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 916.78, "end": 916.84, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 916.84, "end": 916.98, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 916.98, "end": 917.26, "word": " market", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 917.26, "end": 917.4, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 917.4, "end": 917.94, "word": " 2013", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 917.94, "end": 918.68, "word": " actually", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 918.68, "end": 919.1, "word": " lasted", "probability": 0.489501953125 }, { "start": 919.1, "end": 919.44, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 919.44, "end": 920.1, "word": " 59", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 920.1, "end": 920.72, "word": " weeks.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 920.8, "end": 921.22, "word": " So", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 921.22, "end": 921.44, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 921.44, "end": 921.66, "word": " not", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 921.66, "end": 926.38, "text": "like there's never, it's not like there's no prior bear markets for Bitcoin that have gone", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 921.66, "end": 921.96, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 921.96, "end": 922.28, "word": " there's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 922.28, "end": 922.58, "word": " never,", "probability": 0.7890625 }, { "start": 922.82, "end": 923.58, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 923.58, "end": 923.76, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 923.76, "end": 923.92, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 923.92, "end": 924.2, "word": " there's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 924.2, "end": 924.52, "word": " no", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 924.52, "end": 924.86, "word": " prior", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 924.86, "end": 925.08, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 925.08, "end": 925.4, "word": " markets", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 925.4, "end": 925.6, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 925.6, "end": 925.86, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 925.86, "end": 926.12, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 926.12, "end": 926.22, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 926.22, "end": 926.38, "word": " gone", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 926.38, "end": 933.2, "text": "on longer than a year, a 59 -week bear market would actually put you in late November for", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 926.38, "end": 926.58, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 926.58, "end": 926.96, "word": " longer", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 926.96, "end": 927.56, "word": " than", "probability": 0.98681640625 }, { "start": 927.56, "end": 927.7, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 927.7, "end": 928.06, "word": " year,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 928.3, "end": 929.36, "word": " a", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 929.36, "end": 929.82, "word": " 59", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 929.82, "end": 930.18, "word": "-week", "probability": 0.7646484375 }, { "start": 930.18, "end": 930.38, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 930.38, "end": 930.7, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 930.7, "end": 930.92, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 930.92, "end": 931.16, "word": " actually", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 931.16, "end": 931.38, "word": " put", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 931.38, "end": 931.54, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 931.54, "end": 931.7, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 931.7, "end": 931.92, "word": " late", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 931.92, "end": 932.36, "word": " November", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 932.36, "end": 933.2, "word": " for", "probability": 0.9931640625 } ] }, { "start": 933.2, "end": 940.0, "text": "a low if it were to take as long as it did in 2014. But the main difference between now and", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 933.2, "end": 933.78, "word": " a", "probability": 0.9677734375 }, { "start": 933.78, "end": 934.02, "word": " low", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 934.02, "end": 934.62, "word": " if", "probability": 0.8701171875 }, { "start": 934.62, "end": 934.72, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 934.72, "end": 934.8, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 934.8, "end": 934.9, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 934.9, "end": 935.08, "word": " take", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 935.08, "end": 935.24, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 935.24, "end": 935.5, "word": " long", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 935.5, "end": 935.78, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 935.78, "end": 935.86, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 935.86, "end": 936.04, "word": " did", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 936.04, "end": 936.3, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 936.3, "end": 936.78, "word": " 2014.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 937.58, "end": 938.08, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 938.08, "end": 938.56, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 938.56, "end": 938.74, "word": " main", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 938.74, "end": 939.12, "word": " difference", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 939.12, "end": 939.38, "word": " between", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 939.38, "end": 939.76, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 939.76, "end": 940.0, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 940.0, "end": 946.9, "text": "2014 is that in 2014, Bitcoin was not above the 50 -week moving average, right? So", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 940.0, "end": 940.54, "word": " 2014", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 940.54, "end": 941.4, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 941.4, "end": 941.68, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 941.68, "end": 942.0, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 942.0, "end": 942.56, "word": " 2014,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 943.32, "end": 943.82, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 943.82, "end": 944.28, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 944.28, "end": 944.56, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 944.56, "end": 944.8, "word": " above", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 944.8, "end": 944.92, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 944.92, "end": 945.12, "word": " 50", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 945.12, "end": 945.24, "word": "-week", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 945.24, "end": 945.42, "word": " moving", "probability": 0.955078125 }, { "start": 945.42, "end": 945.74, "word": " average,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 945.94, "end": 946.3, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 946.52, "end": 946.9, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 946.9, "end": 953.12, "text": "I think, you know, when you look at all of this, I think the most relevant view", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 946.9, "end": 947.62, "word": " I", "probability": 0.9619140625 }, { "start": 947.62, "end": 948.12, "word": " think,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 948.32, "end": 948.66, "word": " you", "probability": 0.88671875 }, { "start": 948.66, "end": 948.7, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 948.78, "end": 948.84, "word": " when", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 948.84, "end": 948.94, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 948.94, "end": 949.1, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 949.1, "end": 949.22, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 949.22, "end": 949.46, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 949.46, "end": 949.58, "word": " of", "probability": 0.62451171875 }, { "start": 949.58, "end": 949.88, "word": " this,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 950.08, "end": 950.16, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 950.16, "end": 950.36, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 950.36, "end": 950.52, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 950.52, "end": 951.02, "word": " most", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 951.02, "end": 951.66, "word": " relevant", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 951.66, "end": 953.12, "word": " view", "probability": 0.998046875 } ] }, { "start": 953.12, "end": 959.56, "text": "is this 2019 view, because that's the only time where Bitcoin topped on", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 953.12, "end": 954.14, "word": " is", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 954.14, "end": 954.4, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 954.4, "end": 954.94, "word": " 2019", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 954.94, "end": 955.5, "word": " view,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 955.5, "end": 956.12, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 956.12, "end": 956.48, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 956.48, "end": 956.58, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 956.58, "end": 956.82, "word": " only", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 956.82, "end": 957.18, "word": " time", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 957.18, "end": 957.88, "word": " where", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 957.88, "end": 958.3, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 958.3, "end": 959.16, "word": " topped", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 959.16, "end": 959.56, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 959.56, "end": 966.36, "text": "apathy rather than euphoria. It's the only time we had that quantitative", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 959.56, "end": 960.26, "word": " apathy", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 960.26, "end": 961.3, "word": " rather", "probability": 0.9482421875 }, { "start": 961.3, "end": 961.54, "word": " than", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 961.54, "end": 961.94, "word": " euphoria.", "probability": 0.997314453125 }, { "start": 962.4, "end": 962.96, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 962.96, "end": 963.06, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 963.06, "end": 963.28, "word": " only", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 963.28, "end": 963.74, "word": " time", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 963.74, "end": 964.38, "word": " we", "probability": 0.55078125 }, { "start": 964.38, "end": 964.64, "word": " had", "probability": 0.84814453125 }, { "start": 964.64, "end": 965.64, "word": " that", "probability": 0.708984375 }, { "start": 965.64, "end": 966.36, "word": " quantitative", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 966.36, "end": 971.3, "text": "tightening came to an end and then Bitcoin topped just before QT ended and then went into", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 966.36, "end": 966.78, "word": " tightening", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 966.78, "end": 967.1, "word": " came", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 967.1, "end": 967.3, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 967.3, "end": 967.44, "word": " an", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 967.44, "end": 967.68, "word": " end", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 967.68, "end": 967.86, "word": " and", "probability": 0.7666015625 }, { "start": 967.86, "end": 967.96, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 967.96, "end": 968.32, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 968.32, "end": 968.74, "word": " topped", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 968.74, "end": 969.26, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 969.26, "end": 969.66, "word": " before", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 969.66, "end": 970.12, "word": " QT", "probability": 0.97314453125 }, { "start": 970.12, "end": 970.4, "word": " ended", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 970.4, "end": 970.68, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 970.68, "end": 970.8, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 970.8, "end": 970.98, "word": " went", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 970.98, "end": 971.3, "word": " into", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 971.3, "end": 977.6, "text": "this digestion phase, right? Same thing. It's the only time that Bitcoin topped in that way", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 971.3, "end": 971.52, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 971.52, "end": 971.96, "word": " digestion", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 971.96, "end": 972.4, "word": " phase,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 973.02, "end": 973.16, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 973.36, "end": 973.52, "word": " Same", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 973.52, "end": 973.78, "word": " thing.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 974.38, "end": 975.06, "word": " It's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 975.06, "end": 975.2, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 975.2, "end": 975.42, "word": " only", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 975.42, "end": 975.74, "word": " time", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 975.74, "end": 976.02, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 976.02, "end": 976.4, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 976.4, "end": 976.76, "word": " topped", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 976.76, "end": 977.04, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 977.04, "end": 977.24, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 977.24, "end": 977.6, "word": " way", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 977.6, "end": 984.4, "text": "in the same year that Bitcoin had, that the Fed cut rates three times. 2019, there were", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 977.6, "end": 978.32, "word": " in", "probability": 0.65185546875 }, { "start": 978.32, "end": 978.98, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 978.98, "end": 979.2, "word": " same", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 979.2, "end": 979.48, "word": " year", "probability": 0.83154296875 }, { "start": 979.48, "end": 979.7, "word": " that", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 979.7, "end": 980.0, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.703125 }, { "start": 980.0, "end": 980.42, "word": " had,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 980.54, "end": 980.88, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 980.88, "end": 981.06, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 981.06, "end": 981.3, "word": " Fed", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 981.3, "end": 981.6, "word": " cut", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 981.6, "end": 981.96, "word": " rates", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 981.96, "end": 982.24, "word": " three", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 982.24, "end": 982.7, "word": " times.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 983.34, "end": 983.94, "word": " 2019,", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 983.94, "end": 984.28, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 984.28, "end": 984.4, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 984.4, "end": 991.06, "text": "three rate cuts. 2025, there were three rate cuts. But what's happening now is", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 984.4, "end": 984.54, "word": " three", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 984.54, "end": 984.72, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 984.72, "end": 985.04, "word": " cuts.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 985.24, "end": 985.66, "word": " 2025,", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 986.16, "end": 986.68, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 986.68, "end": 986.82, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 986.82, "end": 987.0, "word": " three", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 987.0, "end": 987.18, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 987.18, "end": 987.54, "word": " cuts.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 988.08, "end": 988.68, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 988.68, "end": 989.44, "word": " what's", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 989.44, "end": 989.7, "word": " happening", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 989.7, "end": 990.24, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 990.24, "end": 991.06, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 991.06, "end": 997.26, "text": "different than what happened in 2019. In 2019, Bitcoin was struggling", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 991.06, "end": 991.48, "word": " different", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 991.48, "end": 991.8, "word": " than", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 991.8, "end": 991.94, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 991.94, "end": 992.3, "word": " happened", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 992.3, "end": 992.64, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 992.64, "end": 993.14, "word": " 2019.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 993.56, "end": 994.16, "word": " In", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 994.16, "end": 994.76, "word": " 2019,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 995.6, "end": 995.96, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 995.96, "end": 996.76, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 996.76, "end": 997.26, "word": " struggling", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 997.26, "end": 1003.76, "text": "to break out, but the Fed was cutting rates. They just weren't cutting rates fast enough.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 997.26, "end": 998.16, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 998.16, "end": 999.1, "word": " break", "probability": 0.96923828125 }, { "start": 999.1, "end": 999.74, "word": " out,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 999.76, "end": 1000.88, "word": " but", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1000.88, "end": 1001.04, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1001.04, "end": 1001.24, "word": " Fed", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1001.24, "end": 1001.42, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1001.42, "end": 1001.68, "word": " cutting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1001.68, "end": 1002.04, "word": " rates.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1002.14, "end": 1002.2, "word": " They", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1002.2, "end": 1002.36, "word": " just", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1002.36, "end": 1002.56, "word": " weren't", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1002.56, "end": 1002.78, "word": " cutting", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1002.78, "end": 1003.08, "word": " rates", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1003.08, "end": 1003.42, "word": " fast", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1003.42, "end": 1003.76, "word": " enough.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1004.0, "end": 1008.8, "text": "And then once they did cut rates fast enough, then Bitcoin really broke out. 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And then we would just kind of", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1325.0, "end": 1325.16, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1325.16, "end": 1325.34, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1325.34, "end": 1325.7, "word": " allow", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1325.7, "end": 1325.96, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1325.96, "end": 1326.2, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1326.2, "end": 1326.74, "word": " low", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1326.74, "end": 1326.96, "word": " in", "probability": 0.98095703125 }, { "start": 1326.96, "end": 1327.42, "word": " Q4", "probability": 0.985107421875 }, { "start": 1327.42, "end": 1327.68, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1327.68, "end": 1328.04, "word": " occur", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1328.04, "end": 1328.66, "word": " for", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1328.66, "end": 1329.0, "word": " Bitcoin.", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 1329.1, "end": 1329.52, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 1329.52, "end": 1329.64, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1329.64, "end": 1329.76, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1329.76, "end": 1329.88, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1329.88, "end": 1330.0, "word": " just", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1330.0, "end": 1330.12, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 1330.12, "end": 1330.22, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1330.22, "end": 1334.7, "text": "continue on like we normally do. 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That's the only way, right? It's the only way. 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And what I mean by", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1474.2, "end": 1474.3, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1474.3, "end": 1474.42, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1474.42, "end": 1474.8, "word": " wrong", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1474.8, "end": 1475.5, "word": " if", "probability": 0.97705078125 }, { "start": 1475.5, "end": 1475.8, "word": " there's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1475.8, "end": 1476.1, "word": " not", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1476.1, "end": 1476.7, "word": " a", "probability": 0.80126953125 }, { "start": 1476.7, "end": 1477.28, "word": " or", "probability": 0.76416015625 }, { "start": 1477.28, "end": 1477.76, "word": " a", "probability": 0.6708984375 }, { "start": 1477.76, "end": 1478.26, "word": " 2015", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1478.26, "end": 1478.74, "word": "-like", "probability": 0.997802734375 }, { "start": 1478.74, "end": 1479.22, "word": " crash,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1479.42, "end": 1479.78, "word": " right?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1480.02, "end": 1480.56, "word": " And", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1480.56, "end": 1480.7, "word": " what", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1480.7, "end": 1480.8, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1480.8, "end": 1480.94, "word": " mean", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1480.94, "end": 1481.1, "word": " by", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1481.1, "end": 1487.08, "text": "that is, you know, Bitcoin is at a really critical level right now. And what I would argue", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1481.1, "end": 1481.38, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1481.38, "end": 1481.84, "word": " is,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1482.39, "end": 1482.66, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9609375 }, { "start": 1482.66, "end": 1482.82, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1483.54, "end": 1483.84, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 1483.84, "end": 1484.12, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1484.12, "end": 1484.22, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1484.22, "end": 1484.3, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1484.3, "end": 1484.46, "word": " really", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1484.46, "end": 1484.8, "word": " critical", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1484.8, "end": 1485.06, "word": " level", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1485.06, "end": 1485.24, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1485.24, "end": 1485.48, "word": " now.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1485.64, "end": 1486.18, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1486.18, "end": 1486.56, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1486.56, "end": 1486.68, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1486.68, "end": 1486.82, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1486.82, "end": 1487.08, "word": " argue", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1487.08, "end": 1493.48, "text": "is that if Bitcoin were to give up, 83k on the weekly timeframe after a week or two close,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1487.08, "end": 1487.32, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1487.32, "end": 1487.54, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1487.54, "end": 1488.14, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1488.14, "end": 1488.52, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1488.52, "end": 1488.78, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1488.78, "end": 1488.9, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1488.9, "end": 1489.1, "word": " give", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1489.1, "end": 1489.32, "word": " up,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1489.44, "end": 1490.26, "word": " 83k", "probability": 0.481689453125 }, { "start": 1490.26, "end": 1490.94, "word": " on", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 1490.94, "end": 1491.06, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1491.06, "end": 1491.36, "word": " weekly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1491.36, "end": 1491.76, "word": " timeframe", "probability": 0.6396484375 }, { "start": 1491.76, "end": 1492.58, "word": " after", "probability": 0.59326171875 }, { "start": 1492.58, "end": 1492.7, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1492.7, "end": 1492.88, "word": " week", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1492.88, "end": 1492.98, "word": " or", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1492.98, "end": 1493.12, "word": " two", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1493.12, "end": 1493.48, "word": " close,", "probability": 0.95849609375 } ] }, { "start": 1493.74, "end": 1500.72, "text": "then a lot of people will then completely question this entire breakout. 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Now, the reason this sort of poses a potential problem is that", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1719.0, "end": 1719.2, "word": " see?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1720.12, "end": 1720.68, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1721.06, "end": 1721.12, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1721.12, "end": 1721.92, "word": " reason", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 1721.92, "end": 1722.12, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1722.12, "end": 1722.28, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 1722.28, "end": 1722.38, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1722.38, "end": 1722.76, "word": " poses", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1722.76, "end": 1723.02, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1723.02, "end": 1723.8, "word": " potential", "probability": 0.98876953125 }, { "start": 1723.8, "end": 1724.36, "word": " problem", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1724.36, 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" who's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1729.38, "end": 1729.52, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1729.52, "end": 1729.9, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1729.9, "end": 1730.74, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1730.74, "end": 1730.94, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1730.94, "end": 1731.1, "word": " not", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1731.1, "end": 1731.36, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1731.36, "end": 1731.5, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1731.5, "end": 1731.6, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1731.6, "end": 1731.9, "word": " growth", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1731.9, "end": 1732.34, "word": " scare,", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 1732.5, "end": 1737.84, "text": "and therefore Bitcoin ends up kind of completing the bear market just as it always has so", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 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"end": 1802.75, "text": "dropping in the last two midterm years, right? So if you look at the last cycle, you can", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1797.81, "end": 1798.15, "word": " dropping", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1798.15, "end": 1798.53, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1798.53, "end": 1798.61, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1798.61, "end": 1798.81, "word": " last", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1798.81, "end": 1798.99, "word": " two", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1798.99, "end": 1799.33, "word": " midterm", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 1799.33, "end": 1799.59, "word": " years,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1799.71, "end": 1799.75, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1799.85, "end": 1799.93, "word": " So", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 1799.93, "end": 1800.03, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9423828125 }, { "start": 1800.03, "end": 1800.09, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1800.09, "end": 1800.27, "word": " look", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1800.27, "end": 1800.53, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1800.53, "end": 1801.29, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1801.29, "end": 1801.55, "word": " last", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1801.55, "end": 1801.99, "word": " cycle,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1802.23, "end": 1802.61, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1802.61, "end": 1802.75, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1802.75, "end": 1808.59, "text": "see the final drop was right around the midterms. In 2018, the final drop occurred right", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1802.75, "end": 1802.91, "word": " see", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1802.91, "end": 1803.03, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1803.03, "end": 1803.33, "word": " final", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1803.33, "end": 1803.75, "word": " drop", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1803.75, "end": 1804.37, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1804.37, "end": 1804.69, "word": " right", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1804.69, "end": 1805.07, "word": " around", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1805.07, "end": 1805.21, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1805.21, "end": 1805.77, "word": " midterms.", "probability": 0.9996744791666666 }, { "start": 1805.95, "end": 1806.19, "word": " In", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1806.19, "end": 1806.67, "word": " 2018,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1806.67, "end": 1807.43, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1807.43, "end": 1807.69, "word": " final", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1807.69, "end": 1807.99, "word": " drop", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1807.99, "end": 1808.33, "word": " occurred", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1808.33, "end": 1808.59, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1808.59, "end": 1814.31, "text": "after the midterms. 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If you have high rates long enough, it's going to affect a lot of companies.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1842.72, "end": 1842.84, "word": " high", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1842.84, "end": 1843.18, "word": " rates.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1843.56, "end": 1844.0, "word": " If", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1844.0, "end": 1844.1, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1844.1, "end": 1844.28, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1844.28, "end": 1844.44, "word": " high", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1844.44, "end": 1844.68, "word": " rates", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1844.68, "end": 1844.92, "word": " long", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1844.92, "end": 1845.2, "word": " enough,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1845.38, "end": 1845.52, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1845.52, "end": 1845.62, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1845.62, "end": 1845.74, "word": " 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"The Dow Jones has shown some strength recently, arguably because rates have gone down a", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1857.8, "end": 1858.24, "word": " The", "probability": 0.97705078125 }, { "start": 1858.24, "end": 1858.44, "word": " Dow", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1858.44, "end": 1858.94, "word": " Jones", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1858.94, "end": 1859.42, "word": " has", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1859.42, "end": 1859.62, "word": " shown", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1859.62, "end": 1859.84, "word": " some", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1859.84, "end": 1860.18, "word": " strength", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1860.18, "end": 1860.66, "word": " recently,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1861.1, "end": 1861.72, "word": " arguably", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1861.72, "end": 1862.0, "word": " because", "probability": 0.86328125 }, { "start": 1862.0, "end": 1862.3, "word": " rates", "probability": 1.0 }, { 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But there are times where the Dow drops first, and then rebounds and then drops", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1863.12, "end": 1863.24, "word": " little", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1863.24, "end": 1863.44, "word": " bit.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1863.62, "end": 1863.74, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1863.74, "end": 1864.18, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1864.18, "end": 1864.3, "word": " are", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 1864.3, "end": 1864.62, "word": " times", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1864.62, "end": 1864.82, "word": " where", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1864.82, "end": 1864.94, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1864.94, "end": 1865.12, "word": " Dow", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 1865.12, "end": 1865.5, "word": " drops", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1865.5, "end": 1865.86, "word": " first,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1866.08, "end": 1866.14, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1866.14, "end": 1866.26, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1866.26, "end": 1866.72, "word": " rebounds", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1866.72, "end": 1866.88, "word": " and", "probability": 0.90185546875 }, { "start": 1866.88, "end": 1867.0, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1867.0, "end": 1867.26, "word": " drops", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 1867.26, "end": 1873.26, "text": "more. In fact, that's what happened in, you know, 2024. It's also what happened in uh 2018", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1867.26, "end": 1867.52, "word": " more.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1867.8, "end": 1868.24, "word": " In", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1868.24, "end": 1868.4, "word": " fact,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1868.52, "end": 1868.72, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1868.72, "end": 1868.82, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1868.82, "end": 1869.18, "word": " happened", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1869.18, "end": 1869.44, "word": " in,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1869.46, "end": 1869.98, "word": " you", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1869.98, "end": 1870.02, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1870.14, "end": 1870.44, "word": " 2024.", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 1870.88, "end": 1871.26, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1871.26, "end": 1871.4, "word": " also", "probability": 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Because right now, we have a 10 -year yield", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1893.4, "end": 1893.58, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1893.58, "end": 1893.7, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1893.7, "end": 1893.8, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 1893.8, "end": 1894.22, "word": " destination", "probability": 0.966796875 }, { "start": 1894.22, "end": 1894.5, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 1894.5, "end": 1894.6, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1894.6, "end": 1894.84, "word": " Russell.", "probability": 0.9716796875 }, { "start": 1895.62, "end": 1896.36, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 1896.36, "end": 1897.86, "word": " right", "probability": 0.98681640625 }, { "start": 1897.86, "end": 1898.12, "word": " now,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1898.12, "end": 1898.52, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1898.52, "end": 1898.76, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1898.76, "end": 1898.86, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1898.86, "end": 1899.1, "word": " 10", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 1899.1, "end": 1899.28, "word": "-year", "probability": 0.89990234375 }, { "start": 1899.28, "end": 1899.76, "word": " yield", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1899.76, "end": 1906.08, "text": "that is down after a hot CPI report and a hot PPI report,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1899.76, "end": 1900.54, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1900.54, "end": 1900.96, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1900.96, "end": 1901.6, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1901.6, "end": 1902.18, "word": " after", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1902.18, "end": 1902.8, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1902.8, "end": 1903.08, "word": " hot", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 1903.08, "end": 1903.56, "word": " CPI", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1903.56, "end": 1903.96, "word": " report", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1903.96, "end": 1904.72, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9599609375 }, { "start": 1904.72, "end": 1904.86, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1904.86, "end": 1905.12, "word": " hot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1905.12, "end": 1905.6, "word": " PPI", "probability": 0.998779296875 }, { "start": 1905.6, "end": 1906.08, "word": " report,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1906.82, "end": 1913.02, "text": "okay? To me, that's the sign that yields are in the topping process. When you have a bad", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1906.82, "end": 1906.94, "word": " okay?", "probability": 0.97021484375 }, { "start": 1907.3, "end": 1908.04, "word": " To", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1908.04, "end": 1908.32, "word": " me,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1908.5, "end": 1908.78, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1908.78, "end": 1908.92, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1908.92, "end": 1909.36, "word": " sign", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1909.36, "end": 1910.12, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1910.12, "end": 1910.42, "word": " yields", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1910.42, "end": 1910.58, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1910.58, "end": 1910.68, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1910.68, "end": 1910.78, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1910.78, "end": 1911.0, "word": " topping", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 1911.0, "end": 1911.44, "word": " process.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1911.44, "end": 1911.96, "word": " When", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1911.96, "end": 1912.08, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1912.08, "end": 1912.44, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1912.44, "end": 1912.64, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1912.64, "end": 1913.02, "word": " bad", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 1913.02, "end": 1918.14, "text": "print and yields come down, is that not a sign that", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1913.02, "end": 1913.52, "word": " print", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 1913.52, "end": 1914.4, "word": " and", "probability": 0.95849609375 }, { "start": 1914.4, "end": 1914.9, "word": " yields", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1914.9, "end": 1915.1, "word": " come", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1915.1, "end": 1915.36, "word": " down,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1915.8, "end": 1916.26, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1916.26, "end": 1916.46, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1916.46, "end": 1916.64, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1916.64, "end": 1916.82, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1916.82, "end": 1917.18, "word": " sign", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1917.18, "end": 1918.14, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9892578125 } ] }, { "start": 1918.14, "end": 1924.1, "text": "perhaps the market is starting to worry a little bit more about growth than inflation.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1918.14, "end": 1920.18, "word": " perhaps", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 1920.18, "end": 1920.7, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1920.7, "end": 1921.0, "word": " market", "probability": 0.89013671875 }, { "start": 1921.0, "end": 1921.2, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1921.2, "end": 1921.48, "word": " starting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1921.48, "end": 1921.62, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1921.62, "end": 1921.78, "word": " worry", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1921.78, "end": 1921.88, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1921.88, "end": 1921.98, "word": " little", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1921.98, "end": 1922.1, "word": " bit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1922.1, "end": 1922.24, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1922.24, "end": 1922.46, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1922.46, "end": 1922.92, "word": " growth", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1922.92, "end": 1923.68, "word": " than", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1923.68, "end": 1924.1, "word": " inflation.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1925.82, "end": 1929.96, "text": "What could cause the 10 -year to go back up? Because a lot of times, remember, as we said,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 1925.82, "end": 1926.26, "word": " What", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1926.26, "end": 1926.44, "word": " could", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1926.44, "end": 1926.78, "word": " cause", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1926.78, "end": 1926.96, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1926.96, "end": 1927.16, "word": " 10", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 1927.16, "end": 1927.28, "word": "-year", "probability": 0.8388671875 }, { "start": 1927.28, "end": 1927.4, "word": " to", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1927.4, "end": 1927.52, "word": " go", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1927.52, "end": 1927.72, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1927.72, "end": 1928.0, "word": " up?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1928.18, "end": 1928.3, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 1928.3, "end": 1928.52, "word": 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be completely", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2131.86, "end": 2132.02, "word": " have", "probability": 0.98828125 }, { "start": 2132.02, "end": 2132.28, "word": " fired", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2132.28, "end": 2132.74, "word": " off", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2132.74, "end": 2133.24, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2133.24, "end": 2133.38, "word": " have", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 2133.38, "end": 2133.6, "word": " fired", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2133.6, "end": 2133.78, "word": " off", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2133.78, "end": 2133.92, "word": " at", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2133.92, "end": 2134.0, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2134.0, "end": 2134.1, "word": " end", "probability": 0.98583984375 }, { "start": 2134.1, "end": 2134.2, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2134.2, "end": 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And if that were to fail, I would", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2141.72, "end": 2142.0, "word": " happen", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2142.0, "end": 2142.36, "word": " that", "probability": 0.54345703125 }, { "start": 2142.36, "end": 2142.6, "word": " has", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2142.6, "end": 2142.88, "word": " happened", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2142.88, "end": 2143.06, "word": " is", "probability": 0.98583984375 }, { "start": 2143.06, "end": 2143.18, "word": " going", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2143.18, "end": 2143.26, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2143.26, "end": 2143.44, "word": " keep", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2143.44, "end": 2143.76, "word": " happening.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2144.0, "end": 2144.44, "word": " And", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2144.44, "end": 2144.68, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2144.68, "end": 2145.02, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2145.02, "end": 2145.18, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2145.18, "end": 2145.4, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2145.4, "end": 2146.36, "word": " fail,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2146.66, "end": 2148.06, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2148.06, "end": 2148.22, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2148.22, "end": 2154.24, "text": "actually be concerned that it would actually kill the market for years, not just a few", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2148.22, "end": 2148.5, "word": " actually", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2148.5, "end": 2148.74, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2148.74, "end": 2149.42, "word": " concerned", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2149.42, "end": 2150.6, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2150.6, "end": 2150.68, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2150.68, "end": 2150.78, "word": " would", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2150.78, "end": 2151.08, "word": " actually", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 2151.08, "end": 2151.44, "word": " kill", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2151.44, "end": 2151.64, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2151.64, "end": 2151.96, "word": " market", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2151.96, "end": 2152.4, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2152.4, "end": 2153.0, "word": " years,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2153.24, "end": 2153.62, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2153.62, "end": 2153.96, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2153.96, "end": 2154.12, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2154.12, "end": 2154.24, "word": " few", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2154.24, "end": 2160.62, "text": "months, but for years. And the reason why I say that is because imagine Bitcoin comes back", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2154.24, "end": 2154.54, "word": " months,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2154.64, "end": 2154.72, "word": " but", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2154.72, "end": 2154.88, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2154.88, "end": 2155.32, "word": " years.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2155.78, "end": 2156.34, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2156.34, "end": 2156.44, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2156.44, "end": 2156.62, "word": " reason", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2156.62, "end": 2156.78, "word": " why", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2156.78, "end": 2156.92, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2156.92, "end": 2157.1, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2157.1, "end": 2157.4, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2157.4, "end": 2158.02, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2158.02, "end": 2158.34, "word": " because", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2158.34, "end": 2159.18, "word": " imagine", "probability": 0.98876953125 }, { "start": 2159.18, "end": 2159.58, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2159.58, "end": 2160.38, "word": " comes", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2160.38, "end": 2160.62, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2160.62, "end": 2167.36, "text": "down to 60k and then bounces back up, right? Everyone who", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2160.62, "end": 2160.9, "word": " down", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2160.9, "end": 2161.48, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2161.48, "end": 2162.04, "word": " 60k", "probability": 0.654052734375 }, { "start": 2162.04, "end": 2163.3, "word": " and", "probability": 0.7705078125 }, { "start": 2163.3, "end": 2163.46, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2163.46, "end": 2163.9, "word": " bounces", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2163.9, "end": 2164.3, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2164.3, "end": 2164.6, "word": " up,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2164.72, "end": 2165.88, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2166.6, "end": 2167.16, "word": " Everyone", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 2167.16, "end": 2167.36, "word": " who", "probability": 0.94677734375 } ] }, { "start": 2167.36, "end": 2173.88, "text": 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So you have alts that are way up here, they're really high risk, right?", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2329.46, "end": 2329.66, "word": " over", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2329.66, "end": 2329.92, "word": " here,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2330.12, "end": 2330.2, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2330.24, "end": 2330.36, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2330.36, "end": 2330.44, "word": " you", "probability": 0.96142578125 }, { "start": 2330.44, "end": 2330.64, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2330.64, "end": 2331.16, "word": " alts", "probability": 0.97216796875 }, { "start": 2331.16, "end": 2331.42, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2331.42, "end": 2331.5, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2331.5, "end": 2331.62, "word": " way", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2331.62, "end": 2331.76, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2331.76, "end": 2331.86, "word": " here,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2331.98, "end": 2332.06, "word": " they're", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 2332.06, "end": 2332.34, "word": " really", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2332.34, "end": 2332.62, "word": " high", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2332.62, "end": 2333.12, "word": " risk,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2333.42, "end": 2333.76, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2333.88, "end": 2338.58, "text": "And then below that, you've got Bitcoin. Okay, so think about it like that.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2333.88, "end": 2333.94, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2333.94, "end": 2334.04, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2334.04, "end": 2334.34, "word": " below", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2334.34, "end": 2334.74, "word": " that,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2334.98, "end": 2335.44, "word": " you've", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2335.44, "end": 2335.62, "word": " got", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2335.62, "end": 2336.04, "word": " Bitcoin.", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 2337.0, "end": 2337.48, "word": " Okay,", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2337.68, "end": 2337.78, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2337.78, "end": 2337.92, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2337.92, "end": 2338.06, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2338.06, "end": 2338.14, "word": " it", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2338.14, "end": 2338.28, "word": " like", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2338.28, "end": 2338.58, "word": " that.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2340.63, "end": 2346.91, "text": "Alts did not get their bull market rally at the end, because Bitcoin went into a bear", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2340.63, "end": 2341.11, "word": " Alts", "probability": 0.979736328125 }, { "start": 2341.11, "end": 2341.55, "word": " did", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2341.55, "end": 2341.81, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2341.81, "end": 2342.11, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2342.11, "end": 2342.57, "word": " their", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2342.57, "end": 2343.05, "word": " bull", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2343.05, "end": 2343.41, "word": " market", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2343.41, "end": 2343.87, "word": " rally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2343.87, "end": 2344.11, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2344.11, "end": 2344.25, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2344.25, "end": 2344.59, "word": " end,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2344.87, "end": 2345.21, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2345.21, "end": 2345.71, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2345.71, "end": 2346.25, "word": " went", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2346.25, "end": 2346.53, "word": " into", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2346.53, "end": 2346.69, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2346.69, "end": 2346.91, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 2346.91, "end": 2352.51, "text": "market. Okay, now, that's where you have to start thinking about the S &P 500. 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For years. And", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2352.51, "end": 2352.59, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2352.59, "end": 2352.69, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2352.69, "end": 2352.89, "word": " S", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2352.89, "end": 2353.07, "word": "&P", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2353.07, "end": 2353.55, "word": " 500,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2353.55, "end": 2354.49, "word": " people", "probability": 0.92236328125 }, { "start": 2354.49, "end": 2354.63, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2354.63, "end": 2354.73, "word": " been", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2354.73, "end": 2354.97, "word": " calling", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2354.97, "end": 2355.17, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2355.17, "end": 2355.31, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2355.31, "end": 2355.75, "word": " recession", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2355.75, "end": 2356.31, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2356.31, "end": 2356.97, "word": " years,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2357.31, "end": 2357.47, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.9599609375 }, { "start": 2357.63, "end": 2357.71, "word": " For", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 2357.71, "end": 2358.09, "word": " years.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2358.29, "end": 2358.53, "word": " And", "probability": 0.962890625 } ] }, { "start": 2358.53, "end": 2362.55, "text": "the reality is, is no one really knows when it's going to happen. If you look at initial", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2358.53, "end": 2358.61, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2358.61, "end": 2358.87, "word": " reality", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2358.87, "end": 2359.11, "word": " is,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2359.13, "end": 2359.23, "word": " is", "probability": 0.95068359375 }, { "start": 2359.23, "end": 2359.41, "word": " no", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2359.41, "end": 2359.53, "word": " one", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2359.53, "end": 2359.73, "word": " really", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2359.73, "end": 2360.11, "word": " knows", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2360.11, "end": 2360.47, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2360.47, "end": 2360.63, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2360.63, "end": 2360.73, "word": " going", "probability": 0.95458984375 }, { "start": 2360.73, "end": 2360.79, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2360.79, "end": 2361.09, "word": " happen.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2361.29, "end": 2361.73, "word": " If", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2361.73, "end": 2361.85, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2361.85, "end": 2362.03, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2362.03, "end": 2362.21, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2362.21, "end": 2362.55, "word": " initial", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2362.55, "end": 2368.61, "text": "claims, initial claims are relatively low, right? Like you can't look at initial claims and", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2362.55, "end": 2363.11, "word": " claims,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2363.45, "end": 2364.01, "word": " initial", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2364.01, "end": 2364.45, "word": " claims", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2364.45, "end": 2364.73, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2364.73, "end": 2365.41, "word": " relatively", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2365.41, "end": 2365.97, "word": " low,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2366.25, "end": 2366.43, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2366.57, "end": 2366.69, "word": " Like", "probability": 0.859375 }, { "start": 2366.69, "end": 2366.81, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9482421875 }, { "start": 2366.81, "end": 2367.13, "word": " can't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2367.13, "end": 2367.35, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2367.35, "end": 2367.49, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2367.49, "end": 2367.83, "word": " initial", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2367.83, "end": 2368.33, "word": " claims", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2368.33, "end": 2368.61, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2368.61, "end": 2373.53, "text": "say that you're in a recession right now because this is not recessionary territory", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2368.61, "end": 2368.99, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2368.99, "end": 2369.21, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2369.21, "end": 2369.45, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2369.45, "end": 2369.55, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2369.55, "end": 2369.63, "word": " a", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2369.63, "end": 2369.97, "word": " recession", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2369.97, "end": 2370.19, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2370.19, "end": 2370.41, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2370.41, "end": 2370.67, "word": " because", "probability": 0.62646484375 }, { "start": 2370.67, "end": 2371.45, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2371.45, "end": 2371.63, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2371.63, "end": 2372.01, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2372.01, "end": 2372.97, "word": " recessionary", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2372.97, "end": 2373.53, "word": " territory", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2373.53, "end": 2380.41, "text": "historically. I even have a recession risk dashboard that shows right now", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2373.53, "end": 2374.19, "word": " historically.", "probability": 0.8603515625 }, { "start": 2374.63, "end": 2375.11, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2375.11, "end": 2375.35, "word": " even", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2375.35, "end": 2375.71, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2375.71, "end": 2375.97, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2375.97, "end": 2376.63, "word": " recession", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2376.63, "end": 2377.41, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.9697265625 }, { "start": 2377.41, "end": 2378.31, "word": " dashboard", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2378.31, "end": 2379.23, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 2379.23, "end": 2379.73, "word": " shows", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2379.73, "end": 2380.11, "word": " right", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2380.11, "end": 2380.41, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2380.41, "end": 2387.21, "text": "that it's kind of low. And given the fact that we have the Anthropic IPO and the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2380.41, "end": 2380.73, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2380.73, "end": 2382.59, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2382.59, "end": 2382.77, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.904296875 }, { "start": 2382.77, "end": 2382.91, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2382.91, "end": 2383.25, "word": " low.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2383.49, "end": 2383.91, "word": " And", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 2383.91, "end": 2384.21, "word": " given", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2384.21, "end": 2384.41, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2384.41, "end": 2384.71, "word": " fact", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2384.71, "end": 2384.93, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2384.93, "end": 2385.05, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2385.05, "end": 2385.31, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2385.31, "end": 2385.53, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2385.53, "end": 2386.19, "word": " Anthropic", "probability": 0.926025390625 }, { "start": 2386.19, "end": 2386.65, "word": " IPO", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2386.65, "end": 2387.09, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2387.09, "end": 2387.21, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2387.21, "end": 2393.21, "text": "OpenAI IPO, it would seem kind of strange if we go into a recession before that, right? It", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2387.21, "end": 2387.71, "word": " OpenAI", "probability": 0.98583984375 }, { "start": 2387.71, "end": 2388.25, "word": " IPO,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2388.69, "end": 2389.47, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2389.47, "end": 2389.63, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2389.63, "end": 2389.89, "word": " seem", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2389.89, "end": 2390.17, "word": " kind", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2390.17, "end": 2390.29, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2390.29, "end": 2390.69, "word": " strange", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2390.69, "end": 2391.01, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2391.01, "end": 2391.11, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2391.11, "end": 2391.27, "word": " go", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2391.27, "end": 2391.47, "word": " into", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2391.47, "end": 2391.61, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2391.61, "end": 2392.01, "word": " recession", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2392.01, "end": 2392.35, "word": " before", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2392.35, "end": 2392.73, "word": " that,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2392.93, "end": 2393.03, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2393.11, "end": 2393.21, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2393.21, "end": 2396.91, "text": "would make more sense to me that it would happen after that. And we haven't had either of", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2393.21, "end": 2393.33, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2393.33, "end": 2393.49, "word": " make", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2393.49, "end": 2393.67, "word": " more", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2393.67, "end": 2393.93, "word": " sense", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2393.93, "end": 2394.07, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2394.07, "end": 2394.25, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2394.25, "end": 2394.45, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2394.45, "end": 2394.53, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2394.53, "end": 2394.61, "word": " would", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2394.61, "end": 2394.87, "word": " happen", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2394.87, "end": 2395.15, "word": " after", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2395.15, "end": 2395.49, "word": " that.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2395.57, "end": 2395.93, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2395.93, "end": 2396.05, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2396.05, "end": 2396.31, "word": " haven't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2396.31, "end": 2396.47, "word": " had", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2396.47, "end": 2396.75, "word": " either", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2396.75, "end": 2396.91, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2396.91, "end": 2402.45, "text": "those yet. If you look at these, though, a lot of these aren't going to really show concern", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2396.91, "end": 2397.07, "word": " those", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2397.07, "end": 2397.29, "word": " yet.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2398.03, "end": 2398.47, "word": " If", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2398.47, "end": 2398.61, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2398.61, "end": 2398.95, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2398.95, "end": 2399.59, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2399.59, "end": 2399.85, "word": " these,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2399.97, "end": 2400.01, "word": " though,", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2400.17, "end": 2400.21, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2400.21, "end": 2400.33, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2400.33, "end": 2400.43, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2400.43, "end": 2400.57, "word": " these", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2400.57, "end": 2400.85, "word": " aren't", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2400.85, "end": 2401.07, "word": " going", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2401.07, "end": 2401.23, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2401.23, "end": 2401.43, "word": " really", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2401.43, "end": 2401.75, "word": " show", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2401.75, "end": 2402.45, "word": " concern", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2402.45, "end": 2407.21, "text": "until after stocks start to drop because stocks move first, then it shows up in the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2402.45, "end": 2402.95, "word": " until", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2402.95, "end": 2403.35, "word": " after", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2403.35, "end": 2403.95, "word": " stocks", "probability": 0.9580078125 }, { "start": 2403.95, "end": 2404.29, "word": " start", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2404.29, "end": 2404.45, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2404.45, "end": 2404.67, "word": " drop", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2404.67, "end": 2404.95, "word": " because", "probability": 0.52783203125 }, { "start": 2404.95, "end": 2405.39, "word": " stocks", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2405.39, "end": 2405.71, "word": " move", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2405.71, "end": 2406.17, "word": " first,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2406.39, "end": 2406.55, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2406.55, "end": 2406.67, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2406.67, "end": 2406.87, "word": " shows", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2406.87, "end": 2407.03, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2407.03, "end": 2407.13, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2407.13, "end": 2407.21, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 2407.21, "end": 2413.09, "text": "economy. The only one of these that is sort of designed to show a little bit more concern", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2407.21, "end": 2407.59, "word": " economy.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2407.83, "end": 2408.25, "word": " The", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2408.25, "end": 2408.41, "word": " only", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2408.41, "end": 2408.59, "word": " one", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2408.59, "end": 2408.71, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2408.71, "end": 2408.93, "word": " these", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2408.93, "end": 2409.15, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2409.15, "end": 2409.35, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2409.35, "end": 2409.67, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.9384765625 }, { "start": 2409.67, "end": 2409.79, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2409.79, "end": 2410.35, "word": " designed", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2410.35, "end": 2411.07, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2411.07, "end": 2411.75, "word": " show", "probability": 0.94482421875 }, { "start": 2411.75, "end": 2412.01, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2412.01, "end": 2412.17, "word": " little", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2412.17, "end": 2412.35, "word": " bit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2412.35, "end": 2412.59, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2412.59, "end": 2413.09, "word": " concern", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 2413.09, "end": 2419.03, "text": "first is the interest rate risk. 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Now, it's been going up", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2419.03, "end": 2419.21, "word": " three", "probability": 0.80517578125 }, { "start": 2419.21, "end": 2419.49, "word": "-month,", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 2419.79, "end": 2420.33, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2420.33, "end": 2420.77, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2420.77, "end": 2421.21, "word": " metric", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2421.21, "end": 2421.99, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2421.99, "end": 2422.37, "word": " starts", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2422.37, "end": 2422.55, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2422.55, "end": 2422.83, "word": " show", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2422.83, "end": 2423.05, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2423.05, "end": 2423.51, "word": " first.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2423.67, "end": 2423.81, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { 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And you have to remember that that fractals don't really often play out. 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And that was", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2571.57, "end": 2571.79, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2571.79, "end": 2571.99, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 2571.99, "end": 2572.17, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2572.17, "end": 2572.37, "word": " I", "probability": 0.58837890625 }, { "start": 2572.37, "end": 2572.73, "word": " said", "probability": 0.59765625 }, { "start": 2572.73, "end": 2572.89, "word": " in", "probability": 0.97802734375 }, { "start": 2572.89, "end": 2573.09, "word": " late", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2573.09, "end": 2573.55, "word": " 2024,", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2573.93, "end": 2574.29, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2574.29, "end": 2574.41, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2574.41, "end": 2574.49, "word": " going", "probability": 0.958984375 }, { "start": 2574.49, "end": 2574.55, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2574.55, "end": 2574.75, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2574.75, "end": 2574.95, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2574.95, "end": 2575.11, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2575.11, "end": 2575.37, "word": " 20", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2575.37, "end": 2575.65, "word": "%", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 2575.65, "end": 2576.03, "word": " drop.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2576.11, "end": 2576.51, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 2576.51, "end": 2576.65, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2576.65, "end": 2576.83, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2576.83, "end": 2581.67, "text": "actually based on the S &P divided by M2 chart, right? 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Because in the same move, in the 1990s, we had this 20 % drop, right? 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And then after rallying up, you can see we had another drop about right", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2599.59, "end": 2599.73, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2599.73, "end": 2599.87, "word": "-time", "probability": 0.894775390625 }, { "start": 2599.87, "end": 2600.15, "word": " highs.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2600.45, "end": 2600.91, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9638671875 }, { "start": 2600.91, "end": 2601.17, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2601.17, "end": 2601.57, "word": " after", "probability": 0.87744140625 }, { "start": 2601.57, "end": 2601.95, "word": " rallying", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2601.95, "end": 2602.13, "word": " up,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2602.37, "end": 2602.45, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2602.45, "end": 2602.59, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2602.59, "end": 2602.71, "word": " see", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2602.71, "end": 2602.81, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 2602.81, "end": 2602.97, "word": " had", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2602.97, "end": 2603.27, "word": " another", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2603.27, "end": 2603.63, "word": " drop", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2603.63, "end": 2604.09, "word": " about", "probability": 0.9453125 }, { "start": 2604.09, "end": 2604.61, "word": " right", "probability": 0.53955078125 } ] }, { "start": 2604.61, "end": 2610.65, "text": "there, which aligns right there, right? It's the same thing. 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Now, I'm not a big believer, honestly, in these fractals. 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It's just not. And I'm only showing this, not to say that", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2705.39, "end": 2705.55, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2705.55, "end": 2705.69, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9150390625 }, { "start": 2705.69, "end": 2705.77, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2705.77, "end": 2705.95, "word": " play", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2705.95, "end": 2706.23, "word": " out,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2706.51, "end": 2706.65, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2706.77, "end": 2706.95, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.995361328125 }, { "start": 2706.95, "end": 2707.09, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2707.09, "end": 2707.41, "word": " not.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2707.81, "end": 2708.31, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2708.31, "end": 2709.15, "word": " I'm", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2709.15, "end": 2709.37, "word": " only", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2709.37, "end": 2709.73, "word": " showing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2709.73, "end": 2710.13, "word": " this,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2710.25, "end": 2710.53, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2710.53, "end": 2710.67, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2710.67, "end": 2710.85, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2710.85, "end": 2710.99, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2710.99, "end": 2717.35, "text": "this is what's going to happen. But just to say, these are things that could stop a Bitcoin", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2710.99, "end": 2711.13, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2711.13, "end": 2711.23, "word": " is", "probability": 0.298828125 }, { "start": 2711.23, "end": 2711.41, "word": " what's", "probability": 0.995361328125 }, { "start": 2711.41, "end": 2711.51, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9052734375 }, { "start": 2711.51, "end": 2711.59, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2711.59, "end": 2711.91, "word": " happen.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2712.21, "end": 2712.69, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2712.69, "end": 2712.93, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2712.93, "end": 2713.09, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2713.09, "end": 2713.37, "word": " say,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2713.55, "end": 2714.33, "word": " these", "probability": 0.6611328125 }, { "start": 2714.33, "end": 2715.23, "word": " are", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2715.23, "end": 2715.63, "word": " things", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2715.63, "end": 2716.05, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2716.05, "end": 2716.33, "word": " could", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2716.33, "end": 2716.79, "word": " stop", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2716.79, "end": 2717.03, "word": " a", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2717.03, "end": 2717.35, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9873046875 } ] }, { "start": 2717.35, "end": 2723.99, "text": "bull market, right? If the AI bubble were to sort of pop, if you will. 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Markets are still at all time highs. But oftentimes, you know, uncertainty is", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2848.81, "end": 2849.29, "word": " uncertainty.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2849.75, "end": 2850.13, "word": " Markets", "probability": 0.998291015625 }, { "start": 2850.13, "end": 2850.25, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2850.25, "end": 2850.39, "word": " still", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2850.39, "end": 2850.55, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2850.55, "end": 2850.65, "word": " all", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2850.65, "end": 2850.81, "word": " time", "probability": 0.8017578125 }, { "start": 2850.81, "end": 2851.27, "word": " highs.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2851.59, "end": 2852.09, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2852.09, "end": 2853.61, "word": " oftentimes,", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2854.51, "end": 2854.57, "word": " you", "probability": 0.92724609375 }, { "start": 2854.57, "end": 2854.67, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2854.75, "end": 2855.11, "word": " uncertainty", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2855.11, "end": 2855.43, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2855.43, "end": 2860.63, "text": "not great for markets. 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Like, I'm going to look", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 2968.76, "end": 2969.12, "word": " So", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 2969.12, "end": 2969.28, "word": " I", "probability": 0.92724609375 }, { "start": 2969.28, "end": 2969.6, "word": " thought,", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 2969.84, "end": 2970.02, "word": " you", "probability": 0.88720703125 }, { "start": 2970.02, "end": 2970.2, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2970.72, "end": 2971.7, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2971.7, "end": 2971.88, "word": " was", "probability": 0.94580078125 }, { "start": 2971.88, "end": 2972.14, "word": " all,", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2972.28, "end": 2972.36, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 2972.36, "end": 2972.52, "word": " thought,", "probability": 0.9794921875 }, { "start": 2972.62, "end": 2972.96, "word": " oh,", "probability": 0.8125 }, { "start": 2973.0, "end": 2973.34, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2973.34, "end": 2973.52, "word": " very", "probability": 0.9814453125 }, { "start": 2973.52, "end": 2973.92, "word": " smart.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2974.18, "end": 2974.42, "word": " Like,", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 2974.56, "end": 2974.7, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2974.7, "end": 2974.78, "word": " going", "probability": 0.70556640625 }, { "start": 2974.78, "end": 2974.88, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2974.88, "end": 2975.46, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2975.46, "end": 2980.26, "text": "at this and say, look, we're going to get a rate hike. The S &P is going to drop. 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Maybe that's when people get their", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3036.16, "end": 3036.38, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3036.38, "end": 3036.56, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3036.56, "end": 3036.76, "word": " leads", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3036.76, "end": 3036.88, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3036.88, "end": 3037.0, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3037.0, "end": 3037.3, "word": " final", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3037.3, "end": 3037.66, "word": " phase", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3037.66, "end": 3037.82, "word": " of", "probability": 0.55908203125 }, { "start": 3037.82, "end": 3037.9, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3037.9, "end": 3038.02, "word": " bull", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3038.02, "end": 3038.38, "word": " market.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3038.58, "end": 3038.92, "word": " Maybe", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3038.92, "end": 3039.16, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3039.16, "end": 3039.28, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3039.28, "end": 3039.5, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3039.5, "end": 3039.68, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3039.68, "end": 3039.82, "word": " their", "probability": 0.86767578125 } ] }, { "start": 3039.82, "end": 3045.72, "text": "finally long awaited alt season. And then we raise rates again, and then it kills the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3039.82, "end": 3040.2, "word": " finally", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 3040.2, "end": 3040.96, "word": " long", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 3040.96, "end": 3041.36, "word": " awaited", "probability": 0.81494140625 }, { "start": 3041.36, "end": 3041.52, "word": " alt", "probability": 0.92333984375 }, { "start": 3041.52, "end": 3041.88, "word": " season.", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 3042.66, "end": 3043.1, "word": " And", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3043.1, "end": 3043.44, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3043.44, "end": 3044.04, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3044.04, "end": 3044.26, "word": " raise", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3044.26, "end": 3044.46, "word": " rates", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3044.46, "end": 3044.76, "word": " again,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3044.92, "end": 3045.02, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3045.02, "end": 3045.22, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3045.22, "end": 3045.34, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3045.34, "end": 3045.58, "word": " kills", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3045.58, "end": 3045.72, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3045.72, "end": 3051.6, "text": "market. Right? That, that was kind of what I was somewhat basing it on. But then the market", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3045.72, "end": 3046.02, "word": " market.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3046.26, "end": 3046.64, "word": " Right?", "probability": 0.77587890625 }, { "start": 3046.78, "end": 3046.94, "word": " That,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3047.14, "end": 3047.54, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3047.54, "end": 3047.66, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3047.66, "end": 3047.8, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3047.8, "end": 3047.9, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3047.9, "end": 3048.02, "word": " what", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3048.02, "end": 3048.14, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3048.14, "end": 3048.44, "word": " was", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3048.44, "end": 3049.04, "word": " somewhat", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3049.04, "end": 3049.5, "word": " basing", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3049.5, "end": 3049.62, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3049.62, "end": 3049.82, "word": " on.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3050.24, "end": 3050.68, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3050.68, "end": 3051.0, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3051.0, "end": 3051.24, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3051.24, "end": 3051.6, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3051.6, "end": 3057.4, "text": "basically ripped me a new one, when we got the rate hike. And instead of the S &P dropping,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3051.6, "end": 3052.92, "word": " basically", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 3052.92, "end": 3053.14, "word": " ripped", "probability": 0.947265625 }, { "start": 3053.14, "end": 3053.28, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3053.28, "end": 3053.38, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3053.38, "end": 3053.48, "word": " new", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3053.48, "end": 3053.76, "word": " one,", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 3053.92, "end": 3054.34, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3054.34, "end": 3054.68, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3054.68, "end": 3054.88, "word": " got", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3054.88, "end": 3055.04, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3055.04, "end": 3055.24, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3055.24, "end": 3055.52, "word": " hike.", "probability": 0.86328125 }, { "start": 3055.7, "end": 3056.14, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3056.14, "end": 3056.36, "word": " instead", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3056.36, "end": 3056.48, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3056.48, "end": 3056.58, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3056.58, "end": 3056.8, "word": " S", "probability": 0.98291015625 }, { "start": 3056.8, "end": 3056.94, "word": "&P", "probability": 0.9794921875 }, { "start": 3056.94, "end": 3057.4, "word": " dropping,", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3057.7, "end": 3064.48, "text": "it went up instead. Right? So that that's kind of like where I got a little bit off base.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3057.7, "end": 3058.26, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3058.26, "end": 3058.44, "word": " went", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3058.44, "end": 3058.62, "word": " up", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3058.62, "end": 3058.92, "word": " instead.", "probability": 0.57763671875 }, { "start": 3059.32, "end": 3059.76, "word": " Right?", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3059.84, "end": 3059.96, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3059.96, "end": 3060.12, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3060.12, "end": 3060.66, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.6787109375 }, { "start": 3060.66, "end": 3060.82, "word": " kind", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3060.82, "end": 3060.96, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3060.96, "end": 3061.16, "word": " like", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 3061.16, "end": 3061.54, "word": " where", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3061.54, "end": 3062.48, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3062.48, "end": 3062.8, "word": " got", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3062.8, "end": 3063.18, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3063.18, "end": 3063.44, "word": " little", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3063.44, "end": 3063.72, "word": " bit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3063.72, "end": 3064.06, "word": " off", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3064.06, "end": 3064.48, "word": " base.", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 3064.48, "end": 3068.9, "text": "And then that's why I don't want to be overly deterministic here. So what I would say is", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3064.48, "end": 3064.88, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3064.88, "end": 3065.06, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3065.06, "end": 3065.34, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3065.34, "end": 3065.52, "word": " why", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3065.52, "end": 3065.84, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3065.84, "end": 3066.1, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3066.1, "end": 3066.2, "word": " want", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3066.2, "end": 3066.28, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3066.28, "end": 3066.36, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3066.36, "end": 3066.64, "word": " overly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3066.64, "end": 3067.16, "word": " deterministic", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3067.16, "end": 3067.38, "word": " here.", "probability": 0.72314453125 }, { "start": 3067.56, "end": 3067.8, "word": " So", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 3067.8, "end": 3068.36, "word": " what", "probability": 0.95263671875 }, { "start": 3068.36, "end": 3068.48, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3068.48, "end": 3068.6, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3068.6, "end": 3068.74, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3068.74, "end": 3068.9, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3068.9, "end": 3075.12, "text": "this, right? We're coming up on a pretty important time for Bitcoin right now. And", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3068.9, "end": 3069.2, "word": " this,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3069.5, "end": 3069.62, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.974609375 }, { "start": 3070.32, "end": 3070.88, "word": " We're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3070.88, "end": 3071.08, "word": " coming", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3071.08, "end": 3071.28, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3071.28, "end": 3071.38, "word": " on", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3071.38, "end": 3071.46, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3071.46, "end": 3071.74, "word": " pretty", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3071.74, "end": 3072.22, "word": " important", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3072.22, "end": 3072.74, "word": " time", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3072.74, "end": 3073.28, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3073.28, "end": 3073.6, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3073.6, "end": 3073.84, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3073.84, "end": 3074.12, "word": " now.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3074.56, "end": 3075.12, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 3075.12, "end": 3081.9, "text": "I would say this, if Bitcoin closes below these levels, then", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3075.12, "end": 3076.46, "word": " I", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3076.46, "end": 3076.62, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3076.62, "end": 3076.78, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3076.78, "end": 3077.12, "word": " this,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3077.34, "end": 3078.48, "word": " if", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3078.48, "end": 3078.84, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3078.84, "end": 3079.32, "word": " closes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3079.32, "end": 3080.04, "word": " below", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3080.04, "end": 3080.28, "word": " these", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3080.28, "end": 3080.66, "word": " levels,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3081.2, "end": 3081.9, "word": " then", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 3081.9, "end": 3088.08, "text": "I would then more so defer towards the fake out move in 2015", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3081.9, "end": 3083.04, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3083.04, "end": 3083.26, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3083.26, "end": 3083.44, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3083.44, "end": 3083.92, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3083.92, "end": 3084.2, "word": " so", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3084.2, "end": 3084.62, "word": " defer", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3084.62, "end": 3085.98, "word": " towards", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3085.98, "end": 3086.56, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3086.56, "end": 3086.86, "word": " fake", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3086.86, "end": 3087.04, "word": " out", "probability": 0.84033203125 }, { "start": 3087.04, "end": 3087.3, "word": " move", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3087.3, "end": 3087.44, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3087.44, "end": 3088.08, "word": " 2015", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3088.08, "end": 3094.2, "text": "or 2020. I would, right? That's what I would defer to. Because again,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3088.08, "end": 3090.24, "word": " or", "probability": 0.89453125 }, { "start": 3090.24, "end": 3090.64, "word": " 2020.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3091.56, "end": 3092.12, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3092.12, "end": 3092.32, "word": " would,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3092.58, "end": 3092.66, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3092.76, "end": 3092.88, "word": " That's", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3092.88, "end": 3092.96, "word": " what", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3092.96, "end": 3093.04, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3093.04, "end": 3093.14, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 3093.14, "end": 3093.32, "word": " defer", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3093.32, "end": 3093.52, "word": " to.", "probability": 0.96484375 }, { "start": 3093.7, "end": 3093.82, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 3093.82, "end": 3094.2, "word": " again,", "probability": 0.92626953125 } ] }, { "start": 3094.48, "end": 3099.48, "text": "I'm not saying it's a pandemic. What I'm saying is that when you have a move where you", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3094.48, "end": 3095.24, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3095.24, "end": 3095.4, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3095.4, "end": 3095.72, "word": " saying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3095.72, "end": 3095.96, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3095.96, "end": 3096.02, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3096.02, "end": 3096.46, "word": " pandemic.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3096.66, "end": 3096.78, "word": " What", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3096.78, "end": 3096.92, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3096.92, "end": 3097.16, "word": " saying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3097.16, "end": 3097.34, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3097.34, "end": 3097.48, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 3097.48, "end": 3097.72, "word": " when", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3097.72, "end": 3097.9, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3097.9, "end": 3098.16, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3098.16, "end": 3098.3, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3098.3, "end": 3098.64, "word": " move", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3098.64, "end": 3099.28, "word": " where", "probability": 0.83740234375 }, { "start": 3099.28, "end": 3099.48, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3099.48, "end": 3106.1, "text": "convince everyone that the bull market is back on, like in 2020, and like in 2015,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3099.48, "end": 3100.1, "word": " convince", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3100.1, "end": 3100.9, "word": " everyone", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3100.9, "end": 3101.58, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3101.58, "end": 3101.7, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3101.7, "end": 3101.86, "word": " bull", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3101.86, "end": 3102.16, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3102.16, "end": 3102.34, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3102.34, "end": 3102.54, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3102.54, "end": 3102.86, "word": " on,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3103.06, "end": 3103.62, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3103.62, "end": 3103.78, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3103.78, "end": 3104.26, "word": " 2020,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3104.26, "end": 3105.16, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3105.16, "end": 3105.42, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3105.42, "end": 3105.54, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3105.54, "end": 3106.1, "word": " 2015,", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3106.7, "end": 3113.64, "text": "if you give back that, then it unwinds immediately. It does not take six months to", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3106.7, "end": 3107.22, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3107.22, "end": 3107.4, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3107.4, "end": 3107.78, "word": " give", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3107.78, "end": 3108.32, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3108.32, "end": 3109.06, "word": " that,", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3109.44, "end": 3109.86, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3109.86, "end": 3109.98, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3109.98, "end": 3110.56, "word": " unwinds", "probability": 0.9988606770833334 }, { "start": 3110.56, "end": 3111.02, "word": " immediately.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3111.02, "end": 3111.48, "word": " It", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3111.48, "end": 3111.6, "word": " does", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3111.6, "end": 3111.84, "word": " not", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3111.84, "end": 3112.36, "word": " take", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3112.36, "end": 3113.22, "word": " six", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3113.22, "end": 3113.48, "word": " months", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3113.48, "end": 3113.64, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3113.64, "end": 3119.5, "text": "unwind. It just unwinds overnight, practically, because then everyone who was bullish now", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3113.64, "end": 3114.04, "word": " unwind.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3114.2, "end": 3114.36, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3114.36, "end": 3114.48, "word": " just", "probability": 0.87744140625 }, { "start": 3114.48, "end": 3115.36, "word": " unwinds", "probability": 0.6833292643229166 }, { "start": 3115.36, "end": 3116.32, "word": " overnight,", "probability": 0.927734375 }, { "start": 3116.94, "end": 3117.28, "word": " practically,", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 3117.46, "end": 3117.64, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3117.64, "end": 3117.82, "word": " then", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3117.82, "end": 3118.12, "word": " everyone", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3118.12, "end": 3118.32, "word": " who", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3118.32, "end": 3118.5, "word": " was", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3118.5, "end": 3118.98, "word": " bullish", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3118.98, "end": 3119.5, "word": " now", "probability": 0.99169921875 } ] }, { "start": 3119.5, "end": 3121.92, "text": "realizes the bear market's not over. Okay?", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3119.5, "end": 3119.92, "word": " realizes", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 3119.92, "end": 3120.1, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 3120.1, "end": 3120.22, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3120.22, "end": 3120.56, "word": " market's", "probability": 0.80126953125 }, { "start": 3120.56, "end": 3120.7, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3120.7, "end": 3120.94, "word": " over.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3121.44, "end": 3121.92, "word": " Okay?", "probability": 0.80908203125 } ] }, { "start": 3124.44, "end": 3131.44, "text": "That's why I'm saying respect the closes. Respect the closes. As long as", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3124.44, "end": 3124.96, "word": " That's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3124.96, "end": 3125.1, "word": " why", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3125.1, "end": 3125.28, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3125.28, "end": 3125.56, "word": " saying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3125.56, "end": 3126.64, "word": " respect", "probability": 0.8046875 }, { "start": 3126.64, "end": 3127.66, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3127.66, "end": 3128.04, "word": " closes.", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3128.8, "end": 3129.32, "word": " Respect", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 3129.32, "end": 3129.56, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3129.56, "end": 3129.88, "word": " closes.", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3130.58, "end": 3131.1, "word": " As", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3131.1, "end": 3131.26, "word": " long", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3131.26, "end": 3131.44, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3131.44, "end": 3136.7, "text": "we're closing up here, the bulls can just simply say, look, things are fine. But if you", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3131.44, "end": 3131.56, "word": " we're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3131.56, "end": 3131.84, "word": " closing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3131.84, "end": 3132.06, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3132.06, "end": 3132.34, "word": " here,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3132.54, "end": 3133.6, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3133.6, "end": 3133.9, "word": " bulls", "probability": 0.991455078125 }, { "start": 3133.9, "end": 3134.08, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3134.08, "end": 3134.26, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3134.26, "end": 3134.56, "word": " simply", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3134.56, "end": 3134.82, "word": " say,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3134.94, "end": 3135.02, "word": " look,", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 3135.12, "end": 3135.28, "word": " things", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3135.28, "end": 3135.4, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3135.4, "end": 3135.68, "word": " fine.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3135.86, "end": 3136.38, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3136.38, "end": 3136.52, "word": " if", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3136.52, "end": 3136.7, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3136.7, "end": 3142.58, "text": "close below, that's where it becomes a problem. And that's where you would want to lean", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3136.7, "end": 3137.34, "word": " close", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3137.34, "end": 3137.8, "word": " below,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3138.46, "end": 3139.32, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3139.32, "end": 3139.44, "word": " where", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3139.44, "end": 3139.54, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3139.54, "end": 3139.8, "word": " becomes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3139.8, "end": 3139.94, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3139.94, "end": 3140.3, "word": " problem.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3140.6, "end": 3141.12, "word": " And", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3141.12, "end": 3141.52, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3141.52, "end": 3141.72, "word": " where", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3141.72, "end": 3141.96, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3141.96, "end": 3142.08, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3142.08, "end": 3142.2, "word": " want", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 3142.2, "end": 3142.3, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3142.3, "end": 3142.58, "word": " lean", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 3142.58, "end": 3144.16, "text": "into the bear narrative a lot more.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3142.58, "end": 3142.86, "word": " into", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3142.86, "end": 3143.0, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3143.0, "end": 3143.18, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 3143.18, "end": 3143.52, "word": " narrative", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3143.52, "end": 3143.78, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3143.78, "end": 3143.94, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3143.94, "end": 3144.16, "word": " more.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3145.78, "end": 3151.64, "text": "Now, we're going to look at another thing. The daily timeframe for bitcoin", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3145.78, "end": 3146.3, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3146.5, "end": 3147.62, "word": " we're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3147.62, "end": 3147.7, "word": " going", "probability": 0.91845703125 }, { "start": 3147.7, "end": 3147.72, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3147.72, "end": 3147.84, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3147.84, "end": 3147.94, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3147.94, "end": 3148.16, "word": " another", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3148.16, "end": 3148.44, "word": " thing.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3149.22, "end": 3149.74, "word": " The", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3149.74, "end": 3150.0, "word": " daily", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3150.0, "end": 3150.36, "word": " timeframe", "probability": 0.2354736328125 }, { "start": 3150.36, "end": 3151.28, 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Because for most of the bear", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3267.86, "end": 3268.22, "word": " fools", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3268.22, "end": 3268.6, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3268.6, "end": 3268.98, "word": " both", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3268.98, "end": 3269.62, "word": " bulls", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 3269.62, "end": 3269.98, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3269.98, "end": 3270.4, "word": " bears.", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3270.88, "end": 3271.5, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3271.5, "end": 3271.84, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3271.84, "end": 3272.18, "word": " most", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3272.18, "end": 3272.34, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3272.34, "end": 3272.44, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3272.44, "end": 3272.66, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.72705078125 } ] }, { "start": 3272.66, "end": 3279.62, "text": "market, Bitcoin actually goes up. 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Because Bitcoin generally likes to trend higher and then it breaks", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3279.62, "end": 3280.08, "word": " idiots", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3280.08, "end": 3281.2, "word": " in", "probability": 0.98876953125 }, { "start": 3281.2, "end": 3281.38, "word": " bear", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3281.38, "end": 3281.84, "word": " markets.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3282.12, "end": 3282.56, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3282.56, "end": 3282.96, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3282.96, "end": 3283.42, "word": " generally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3283.42, "end": 3283.84, "word": " likes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3283.84, "end": 3284.04, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3284.04, "end": 3284.5, "word": " trend", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3284.5, "end": 3285.02, "word": " higher", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3285.02, "end": 3285.58, "word": " and", "probability": 0.4775390625 }, { "start": 3285.58, "end": 3285.7, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3285.7, "end": 3285.8, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3285.8, "end": 3286.24, "word": " breaks", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3286.24, "end": 3290.7, "text": "down very quickly. And then it just slowly trends up for a long time before then like", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3286.24, "end": 3286.48, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3286.48, "end": 3286.72, "word": " very", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3286.72, "end": 3287.06, "word": " quickly.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3287.22, "end": 3287.48, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3287.48, "end": 3287.56, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3287.56, "end": 3287.64, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3287.64, "end": 3287.78, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3287.78, "end": 3288.38, "word": " slowly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3288.38, "end": 3288.7, "word": " trends", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 3288.7, "end": 3288.88, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3288.88, "end": 3289.02, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3289.02, "end": 3289.12, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3289.12, "end": 3289.28, "word": " long", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3289.28, "end": 3289.68, "word": " time", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3289.68, "end": 3290.22, "word": " before", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3290.22, "end": 3290.5, "word": " then", "probability": 0.96630859375 }, { "start": 3290.5, "end": 3290.7, "word": " like", "probability": 0.59814453125 } ] }, { "start": 3290.7, "end": 3297.32, "text": "breaking down. look at this cycle, right? When it drops, it drops fairly quickly. 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That's why it's so hard to be a bear in a bear market, because you spend the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3302.86, "end": 3303.2, "word": " quickly.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3303.36, "end": 3303.7, "word": " That's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3303.7, "end": 3303.82, "word": " why", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3303.82, "end": 3304.02, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3304.02, "end": 3304.16, "word": " so", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3304.16, "end": 3304.4, "word": " hard", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3304.4, "end": 3304.52, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3304.52, "end": 3304.68, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3304.68, "end": 3304.82, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3304.82, "end": 3305.06, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3305.06, "end": 3305.48, "word": " in", "probability": 0.98876953125 }, { "start": 3305.48, "end": 3305.54, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3305.54, "end": 3305.68, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3305.68, "end": 3306.02, "word": " market,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3306.02, "end": 3306.48, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3306.48, "end": 3306.7, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3306.7, "end": 3307.14, "word": " spend", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3307.14, "end": 3307.7, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3307.7, "end": 3313.16, "text": "entire bear market thinking you're wrong, because there's only like 10 or 12 days every few", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3307.7, "end": 3307.98, "word": " entire", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3307.98, "end": 3308.24, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3308.24, "end": 3308.66, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3308.66, "end": 3309.42, "word": " thinking", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 3309.42, "end": 3309.7, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3309.7, "end": 3310.02, "word": " wrong,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3310.06, "end": 3310.7, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3310.7, "end": 3311.02, "word": " there's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3311.02, "end": 3311.26, "word": " only", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3311.26, "end": 3311.52, "word": " like", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 3311.52, "end": 3311.84, "word": " 10", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3311.84, "end": 3312.0, "word": " or", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3312.0, "end": 3312.28, "word": " 12", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3312.28, "end": 3312.58, "word": " days", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3312.58, "end": 3312.92, "word": " every", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3312.92, "end": 3313.16, "word": " few", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3313.16, "end": 3317.66, "text": "months where you feel like a genius and you're like, well, see, I told you so. 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But look at what it did back in May. It also swept the low. See this?", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3351.27, "end": 3352.27, "word": " previously.", "probability": 0.9716796875 }, { "start": 3352.69, "end": 3353.13, "word": " But", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3353.13, "end": 3353.33, "word": " look", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3353.33, "end": 3353.43, "word": " at", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3353.43, "end": 3353.53, "word": " what", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3353.53, "end": 3353.63, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3353.63, "end": 3353.77, "word": " did", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3353.77, "end": 3354.05, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3354.05, "end": 3354.25, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3354.25, "end": 3354.47, "word": " May.", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 3354.63, "end": 3354.73, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3354.73, "end": 3355.03, "word": " also", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3355.03, "end": 3355.49, "word": " swept", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3355.49, "end": 3355.67, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3355.67, "end": 3355.93, "word": " low.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3356.25, "end": 3356.69, "word": " See", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3356.69, "end": 3357.03, "word": " this?", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3358.11, "end": 3364.83, "text": "Swept the low, rallied around the 50 -day, and then sold off. Just because it sold off back", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3358.11, "end": 3358.55, "word": " Swept", "probability": 0.98583984375 }, { "start": 3358.55, "end": 3358.71, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3358.71, "end": 3358.97, "word": " low,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3359.41, "end": 3359.93, "word": " rallied", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3359.93, "end": 3360.31, "word": " around", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3360.31, "end": 3360.49, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3360.49, "end": 3360.77, "word": " 50", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 3360.77, "end": 3361.11, "word": "-day,", "probability": 0.838623046875 }, { "start": 3362.15, "end": 3362.59, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3362.59, "end": 3362.71, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3362.71, "end": 3362.97, "word": " sold", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3362.97, "end": 3363.29, "word": " off.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3363.49, "end": 3363.89, "word": " Just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3363.89, "end": 3364.11, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3364.11, "end": 3364.25, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3364.25, "end": 3364.45, "word": " sold", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3364.45, "end": 3364.63, "word": " off", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3364.63, "end": 3364.83, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3364.83, "end": 3370.15, "text": "then does not mean it has to sell off today. What I'm saying is if it does sell off,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3364.83, "end": 3365.13, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3365.13, "end": 3365.65, "word": " does", "probability": 0.91455078125 }, { "start": 3365.65, "end": 3365.99, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3365.99, "end": 3366.21, "word": " mean", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3366.21, "end": 3366.37, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3366.37, "end": 3366.61, "word": " has", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3366.61, "end": 3366.77, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3366.77, "end": 3366.99, "word": " sell", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3366.99, "end": 3367.19, "word": " off", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3367.19, "end": 3367.43, "word": " today.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3367.61, "end": 3367.93, "word": " What", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3367.93, "end": 3368.09, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3368.09, "end": 3368.37, "word": " saying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3368.37, "end": 3368.91, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3368.91, "end": 3369.05, "word": " if", "probability": 0.93408203125 }, { "start": 3369.05, "end": 3369.19, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3369.19, "end": 3369.55, "word": " does", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3369.55, "end": 3369.87, "word": " sell", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3369.87, "end": 3370.15, "word": " off,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3370.43, "end": 3376.47, "text": "recognize it's going to be over before you can blink. It's going to be over before you can", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3370.43, "end": 3371.25, "word": " recognize", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3371.25, "end": 3372.17, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3372.17, "end": 3372.27, "word": " going", "probability": 0.97607421875 }, { "start": 3372.27, "end": 3372.35, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3372.35, "end": 3372.49, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3372.49, "end": 3372.89, "word": " over", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3372.89, "end": 3373.87, "word": " before", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3373.87, "end": 3374.15, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3374.15, "end": 3374.35, "word": " can", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3374.35, "end": 3374.55, "word": " blink.", "probability": 0.92919921875 }, { "start": 3375.27, "end": 3375.63, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.9638671875 }, { "start": 3375.63, "end": 3375.73, "word": " going", "probability": 0.91845703125 }, { "start": 3375.73, "end": 3375.77, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3375.77, "end": 3375.83, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3375.83, "end": 3375.99, "word": " over", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3375.99, "end": 3376.21, "word": " before", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3376.21, "end": 3376.35, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3376.35, "end": 3376.47, "word": " can", "probability": 0.9970703125 } ] }, { "start": 3376.47, "end": 3376.63, "text": "blink.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3376.47, "end": 3376.63, "word": " blink.", "probability": 0.99609375 } ] }, { "start": 3377.87, "end": 3381.43, "text": "And if it rallies, it'll probably be over before you can blink too. Just like it was over", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3377.87, "end": 3378.23, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 3378.23, "end": 3378.37, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3378.37, "end": 3378.47, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3378.47, "end": 3378.81, "word": " rallies,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3378.95, "end": 3379.07, "word": " it'll", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 3379.07, "end": 3379.29, "word": " probably", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3379.29, "end": 3379.41, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3379.41, "end": 3379.57, "word": " over", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3379.57, "end": 3379.79, "word": " before", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3379.79, "end": 3379.91, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3379.91, "end": 3380.01, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3380.01, "end": 3380.19, "word": " blink", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3380.19, "end": 3380.41, "word": " too.", "probability": 0.75732421875 }, { "start": 3380.61, "end": 3380.91, "word": " Just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3380.91, "end": 3381.07, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3381.07, "end": 3381.15, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3381.15, "end": 3381.29, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3381.29, "end": 3381.43, "word": " over", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3381.43, "end": 3386.41, "text": "here, right? You get like a week of a rally and then you spend another two months", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3381.43, "end": 3381.59, "word": " here,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3381.69, "end": 3381.75, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3381.79, "end": 3381.89, "word": " You", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3381.89, "end": 3382.07, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3382.07, "end": 3382.29, "word": " like", "probability": 0.87939453125 }, { "start": 3382.29, "end": 3382.93, "word": " a", "probability": 0.98779296875 }, { "start": 3382.93, "end": 3383.33, "word": " week", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3383.33, "end": 3383.99, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3383.99, "end": 3384.11, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3384.11, "end": 3384.45, "word": " rally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3384.45, "end": 3385.33, "word": " and", "probability": 0.53857421875 }, { "start": 3385.33, "end": 3385.45, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3385.45, "end": 3385.53, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3385.53, "end": 3385.73, "word": " spend", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3385.73, "end": 3385.97, "word": " another", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3385.97, "end": 3386.19, "word": " two", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 3386.19, "end": 3386.41, "word": " months", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3386.41, "end": 3392.33, "text": "consolidating. And that's what happened in 2019, right? Bitcoin just sort of stair -stepped", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3386.41, "end": 3387.01, "word": " consolidating.", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3387.57, "end": 3387.93, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3387.93, "end": 3388.09, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3388.09, "end": 3388.19, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3388.19, "end": 3388.43, "word": " happened", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3388.43, "end": 3388.55, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3388.55, "end": 3388.97, "word": " 2019,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3389.41, "end": 3389.55, "word": " right?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3390.65, "end": 3391.01, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3391.01, "end": 3391.37, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3391.37, "end": 3391.53, "word": " sort", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3391.53, "end": 3391.67, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3391.67, "end": 3391.97, "word": " stair", "probability": 0.97314453125 }, { "start": 3391.97, "end": 3392.33, "word": "-stepped", "probability": 0.9103190104166666 } ] }, { "start": 3392.33, "end": 3399.13, "text": "up for months. If you don't know what I'm talking about, if you look at the Bitcoin chart", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3392.33, "end": 3392.59, "word": " up", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3392.59, "end": 3393.05, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3393.05, "end": 3394.11, "word": " months.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3394.73, "end": 3395.09, "word": " If", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3395.09, "end": 3395.13, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3395.13, "end": 3395.25, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3395.25, "end": 3395.31, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3395.31, "end": 3395.41, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3395.41, "end": 3395.47, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3395.47, "end": 3395.65, "word": " talking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3395.65, "end": 3395.89, "word": " about,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3396.25, "end": 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"text": "some people think like i'm blind to it that they think that i can't understand there's an", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3452.29, "end": 3452.81, "word": " some", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3452.81, "end": 3453.03, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3453.03, "end": 3453.29, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3453.29, "end": 3453.45, "word": " like", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3453.45, "end": 3453.63, "word": " i'm", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3453.63, "end": 3454.01, "word": " blind", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3454.01, "end": 3454.25, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3454.25, "end": 3454.41, "word": " it", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3454.41, "end": 3454.65, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3454.65, "end": 3454.81, "word": " they", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3454.81, "end": 3455.09, "word": " 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And that's why I said back in July, the accumulation phase had begun. 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That's", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3471.13, "end": 3471.51, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3471.51, "end": 3472.27, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3472.27, "end": 3472.43, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3472.43, "end": 3472.61, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3472.61, "end": 3473.01, "word": " simply", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3473.01, "end": 3473.81, "word": " DCA", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 3473.81, "end": 3474.37, "word": " throughout", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3474.37, "end": 3474.59, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3474.59, "end": 3474.85, "word": " second", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3474.85, "end": 3475.15, "word": " half", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3475.15, "end": 3475.31, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3475.31, "end": 3475.35, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3475.35, "end": 3475.65, "word": " midterm", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3475.65, "end": 3475.91, "word": " year,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3476.13, "end": 3476.27, "word": " right?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3476.29, "end": 3476.51, "word": " That's", "probability": 0.999267578125 } ] }, { "start": 3476.51, "end": 3480.07, "text": "what I've normally done. That's what I did in 2018. That's what I did in 2022. 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Maybe it should have been my base case, right? But it wasn't my base", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3528.4, "end": 3528.64, "word": " wasn't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3528.64, "end": 3528.78, "word": " my", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3528.78, "end": 3529.12, "word": " base", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3529.12, "end": 3529.52, "word": " case.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3529.7, "end": 3530.1, "word": " Maybe", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3530.1, "end": 3530.26, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3530.26, "end": 3530.44, "word": " should", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3530.44, "end": 3530.56, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3530.56, "end": 3530.8, "word": " been", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3530.8, "end": 3531.16, "word": " my", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3531.16, "end": 3531.4, "word": " base", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3531.4, "end": 3531.78, "word": " case,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3532.02, "end": 3532.36, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.953125 }, { "start": 3532.52, "end": 3532.8, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3532.8, "end": 3532.92, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3532.92, "end": 3533.26, "word": " wasn't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3533.26, "end": 3533.4, "word": " my", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3533.4, "end": 3533.64, "word": " base", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3533.64, "end": 3537.9, "text": "case back then. I didn't say it couldn't be in. I just said it wasn't my base case.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3533.64, "end": 3533.86, "word": " case", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3533.86, "end": 3534.06, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3534.06, "end": 3534.24, "word": " then.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3534.36, "end": 3534.6, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3534.6, "end": 3534.84, "word": " didn't", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3534.84, "end": 3535.02, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3535.02, "end": 3535.16, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3535.16, "end": 3535.46, "word": " couldn't", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3535.46, "end": 3535.6, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3535.6, "end": 3535.78, "word": " in.", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3535.94, "end": 3536.2, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3536.2, "end": 3536.36, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3536.36, "end": 3536.58, "word": " said", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3536.58, "end": 3536.7, "word": " it", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3536.7, "end": 3537.04, "word": " wasn't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3537.04, "end": 3537.22, "word": " my", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3537.22, "end": 3537.5, "word": " base", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3537.5, "end": 3537.9, "word": " case.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3540.07, "end": 3546.47, "text": "So here we are. I understand the bull case. completely understand it okay you don't have to", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3540.07, "end": 3540.51, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 3540.51, "end": 3540.73, "word": " here", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 3540.73, "end": 3540.85, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3540.85, "end": 3541.07, "word": " are.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3541.69, "end": 3542.13, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3542.13, "end": 3542.57, "word": " understand", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3542.57, "end": 3542.71, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3542.71, "end": 3542.83, "word": " bull", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 3542.83, "end": 3543.25, "word": " case.", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 3544.07, "end": 3544.55, "word": " completely", "probability": 0.4443359375 }, { "start": 3544.55, "end": 3544.99, "word": " understand", "probability": 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I mean, oil just keeps on going up and who", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3573.81, "end": 3574.13, "word": " things", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3574.13, "end": 3574.39, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3574.39, "end": 3574.59, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3574.59, "end": 3575.01, "word": " simply", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3575.01, "end": 3577.07, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9814453125 }, { "start": 3577.07, "end": 3577.27, "word": " price", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3577.27, "end": 3577.39, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3577.39, "end": 3577.55, "word": " oil,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3577.75, "end": 3577.83, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3577.97, "end": 3577.97, "word": " I", "probability": 0.9658203125 }, { "start": 3577.97, "end": 3578.05, "word": " mean,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3578.17, "end": 3578.29, "word": " oil", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3578.29, "end": 3578.47, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3578.47, "end": 3578.67, "word": " keeps", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3578.67, "end": 3578.85, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3578.85, "end": 3579.01, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3579.01, "end": 3579.25, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3579.25, "end": 3579.55, "word": " and", "probability": 0.4775390625 }, { "start": 3579.55, "end": 3579.89, "word": " who", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3579.89, "end": 3584.37, "text": "knows when it's ever going to stop. And I imagine that's weighing on people. 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It doesn't mean you can't have a bull market. 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The dollar generally", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3610.25, "end": 3610.57, "word": " starts", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3610.57, "end": 3610.77, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3610.77, "end": 3611.15, "word": " realize", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3611.15, "end": 3611.51, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3611.51, "end": 3611.67, "word": " need", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3611.67, "end": 3611.89, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3611.89, "end": 3612.37, "word": " hikes,", "probability": 0.969482421875 }, { "start": 3612.55, "end": 3612.73, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3612.73, "end": 3613.09, "word": " hikes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3613.09, "end": 3613.21, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 3613.21, "end": 3613.33, "word": " not", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3613.33, "end": 3613.51, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3613.51, "end": 3613.91, "word": " cuts.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3614.19, "end": 3614.55, "word": " The", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3614.55, "end": 3614.85, "word": " dollar", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3614.85, "end": 3615.17, "word": " generally", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3615.17, "end": 3621.05, "text": "wants to go higher. That's at least my interpretation of of all of this. 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And if it doesn't hold, then we should be heading back down to the bottom of the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3698.33, "end": 3698.55, "word": " month.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3698.95, "end": 3699.39, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3699.39, "end": 3699.53, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3699.53, "end": 3699.63, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3699.63, "end": 3700.01, "word": " doesn't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3700.01, "end": 3700.29, "word": " hold,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3700.97, "end": 3701.41, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3701.41, "end": 3701.55, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3701.55, "end": 3701.71, "word": " should", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3701.71, "end": 3701.89, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3701.89, "end": 3702.19, "word": " heading", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3702.19, "end": 3702.43, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3702.43, "end": 3702.67, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3702.67, "end": 3702.79, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3702.79, "end": 3702.87, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3702.87, "end": 3703.03, "word": " bottom", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3703.03, "end": 3703.13, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3703.13, "end": 3703.19, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3703.19, "end": 3709.85, "text": "range really, really soon. So this is what you got to watch, right? These levels right", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3703.19, "end": 3703.59, "word": " range", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3703.59, "end": 3704.45, "word": " really,", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 3704.45, "end": 3704.79, "word": " really", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3704.79, "end": 3705.11, "word": " soon.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3706.25, "end": 3706.69, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3706.69, "end": 3706.91, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3706.91, "end": 3707.03, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3707.03, "end": 3707.15, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3707.15, "end": 3707.25, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3707.25, "end": 3707.37, "word": " got", "probability": 0.8369140625 }, { "start": 3707.37, "end": 3707.47, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3707.47, "end": 3707.85, "word": " watch,", 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3719.77, "text": "ethereum it's been struggling a lot more total two i think total three has been a little", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3715.15, "end": 3715.63, "word": " ethereum", "probability": 0.61492919921875 }, { "start": 3715.63, "end": 3715.95, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.947998046875 }, { "start": 3715.95, "end": 3716.07, "word": " been", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3716.07, "end": 3716.43, "word": " struggling", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3716.43, "end": 3716.61, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3716.61, "end": 3716.67, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3716.67, "end": 3716.87, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3716.87, "end": 3717.53, "word": " total", "probability": 0.95458984375 }, { "start": 3717.53, "end": 3717.97, "word": " two", "probability": 0.837890625 }, { "start": 3717.97, "end": 3718.61, "word": " i", "probability": 0.97119140625 }, { "start": 3718.61, "end": 3718.81, "word": " think", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3718.81, "end": 3719.09, "word": " total", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3719.09, "end": 3719.33, "word": " three", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3719.33, "end": 3719.47, "word": " has", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3719.47, "end": 3719.57, "word": " been", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3719.57, "end": 3719.67, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3719.67, "end": 3719.77, "word": " little", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3719.77, "end": 3723.89, "text": "stronger it's it's actually below the 50 day but there's times where total three gets below", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3719.77, "end": 3720.19, "word": " stronger", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3720.19, "end": 3720.51, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3720.51, "end": 3720.73, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.933349609375 }, { "start": 3720.73, "end": 3720.95, "word": " actually", 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"it and then recovers without bitcoin going below it so don't put too much faith into that", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3723.89, "end": 3724.17, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3724.17, "end": 3724.75, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3724.75, "end": 3724.87, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3724.87, "end": 3725.49, "word": " recovers", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3725.49, "end": 3726.21, "word": " without", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3726.21, "end": 3726.67, "word": " bitcoin", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3726.67, "end": 3726.99, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3726.99, "end": 3727.21, "word": " below", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3727.21, "end": 3727.43, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3727.43, "end": 3727.61, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3727.61, "end": 3727.85, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 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"probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3750.05, "end": 3755.75, "text": "after that drop like basically saying that this drop here this wick down is kind of similar", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3750.05, "end": 3750.43, "word": " after", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3750.43, "end": 3750.65, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3750.65, "end": 3750.85, "word": " drop", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3750.85, "end": 3751.07, "word": " like", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 3751.07, "end": 3751.61, "word": " basically", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3751.61, "end": 3751.99, "word": " saying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3751.99, "end": 3752.27, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3752.27, "end": 3753.01, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3753.01, "end": 3753.43, "word": " drop", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3753.43, "end": 3753.87, "word": " here", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3753.87, "end": 3754.53, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3754.53, "end": 3754.79, "word": " wick", "probability": 0.97314453125 }, { "start": 3754.79, "end": 3755.03, "word": " down", "probability": 0.9716796875 }, { "start": 3755.03, "end": 3755.25, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3755.25, "end": 3755.41, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3755.41, "end": 3755.49, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3755.49, "end": 3755.75, "word": " similar", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3755.75, "end": 3756.23, "text": "to this one", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3755.75, "end": 3755.89, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3755.89, "end": 3756.05, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3756.05, "end": 3756.23, "word": " one", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 3758.54, "end": 3765.44, "text": "so decision time is coming very very soon", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3758.54, "end": 3759.6, "word": " so", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3759.6, "end": 3761.5, "word": " decision", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3761.5, "end": 3761.96, "word": " time", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3761.96, "end": 3762.88, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3762.88, "end": 3763.6, "word": " coming", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3764.5, "end": 3764.94, "word": " very", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3764.94, "end": 3765.16, "word": " very", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3765.16, "end": 3765.44, "word": " soon", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3765.44, "end": 3771.24, "text": "one more thing i know this video is is kind of short right now so let me make it even", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3765.44, "end": 3767.26, "word": " one", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3767.26, "end": 3767.42, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3767.42, "end": 3767.68, "word": " thing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3767.68, "end": 3768.1, "word": " i", "probability": 0.98828125 }, { "start": 3768.1, "end": 3768.22, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3768.22, "end": 3768.4, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3768.4, "end": 3768.66, "word": " video", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3768.66, "end": 3769.16, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3769.16, "end": 3769.42, "word": " is", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 3769.42, "end": 3769.6, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3769.6, "end": 3769.7, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3769.7, "end": 3769.96, "word": " short", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3769.96, "end": 3770.16, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3770.16, "end": 3770.36, "word": " now", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3770.36, "end": 3770.6, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3770.6, "end": 3770.7, "word": " let", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3770.7, "end": 3770.8, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3770.8, "end": 3771.0, "word": " make", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3771.0, "end": 3771.1, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3771.1, "end": 3771.24, "word": " even", "probability": 0.921875 } ] }, { "start": 3771.24, "end": 3777.06, "text": "longer um the bitcoin silver valuation and the bitcoin gold valuation", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3771.24, "end": 3771.6, "word": " longer", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3771.6, "end": 3772.48, "word": " um", "probability": 0.321533203125 }, { "start": 3772.48, "end": 3773.54, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3773.54, "end": 3773.88, "word": " bitcoin", "probability": 0.8701171875 }, { "start": 3773.88, "end": 3774.52, "word": " silver", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3774.52, "end": 3775.0, "word": " valuation", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 3775.0, "end": 3776.02, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3776.02, "end": 3776.12, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3776.12, "end": 3776.36, "word": " bitcoin", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3776.36, "end": 3776.62, "word": " gold", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3776.62, "end": 3777.06, "word": " valuation", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 3777.06, "end": 3782.92, "text": "this is tricky the bitcoin silver valuation to me", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3777.06, "end": 3778.58, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3778.58, "end": 3778.72, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3778.72, "end": 3779.0, "word": " tricky", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3779.76, "end": 3780.4, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3780.4, "end": 3780.74, "word": " bitcoin", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3780.74, "end": 3781.18, "word": " silver", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3781.18, "end": 3781.72, "word": " valuation", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3781.72, "end": 3782.58, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3782.58, "end": 3782.92, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3782.92, "end": 3788.68, "text": "i can't i can't sit here on the bitcoin silver valuation and call for for much lower than i", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3782.92, "end": 3784.08, "word": " i", "probability": 0.943359375 }, { "start": 3784.08, "end": 3784.6, "word": " can't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3784.6, "end": 3784.98, "word": " i", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3784.98, "end": 3785.3, "word": " can't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3785.3, "end": 3785.5, "word": " sit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3785.5, "end": 3785.66, "word": " here", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3785.66, 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"word": " i", "probability": 0.76708984375 } ] }, { "start": 3788.68, "end": 3794.26, "text": "already went because i was already under the impression that just sweeping the low would be", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3788.68, "end": 3788.78, "word": " already", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 3788.78, "end": 3789.02, "word": " went", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3789.02, "end": 3789.58, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3789.58, "end": 3789.84, "word": " i", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3789.84, "end": 3790.02, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3790.02, "end": 3790.32, "word": " already", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3790.32, "end": 3790.52, "word": " under", "probability": 0.92822265625 }, { "start": 3790.52, "end": 3790.64, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3790.64, "end": 3791.02, "word": " impression", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3791.02, "end": 3791.88, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3791.88, "end": 3793.36, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3793.36, "end": 3793.7, "word": " sweeping", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3793.7, "end": 3793.84, "word": " the", "probability": 0.947265625 }, { "start": 3793.84, "end": 3794.02, "word": " low", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 3794.02, "end": 3794.18, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3794.18, "end": 3794.26, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3794.26, "end": 3800.94, "text": "good enough. So against silver, I would say Bitcoin probably has", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3794.26, "end": 3794.42, "word": " good", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3794.42, "end": 3794.72, "word": " enough.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3795.52, "end": 3795.66, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 3795.66, "end": 3797.0, "word": " against", "probability": 0.94091796875 }, { "start": 3797.0, "end": 3797.82, "word": " silver,", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 3797.82, "end": 3799.68, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3799.68, "end": 3799.84, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3799.84, "end": 3800.0, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3800.0, "end": 3800.34, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 3800.34, "end": 3800.72, "word": " probably", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3800.72, "end": 3800.94, "word": " has", "probability": 0.99658203125 } ] }, { "start": 3800.94, "end": 3806.66, "text": "bottomed for a long time. But the problem is against gold.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3800.94, "end": 3801.36, "word": " bottomed", "probability": 0.996826171875 }, { "start": 3801.36, "end": 3801.6, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3801.6, "end": 3801.86, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3801.86, "end": 3801.98, "word": " long", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3801.98, "end": 3802.3, "word": " time.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3803.34, "end": 3803.86, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3803.86, "end": 3804.0, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3804.0, "end": 3804.54, "word": " problem", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3804.54, "end": 3805.76, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3805.76, "end": 3806.1, "word": " against", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3806.1, "end": 3806.66, "word": " gold.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3807.48, "end": 3813.42, "text": "Against gold, I don't know that it has. I really don't know because I, you know, when you", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3807.48, "end": 3808.0, "word": " Against", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3808.0, "end": 3808.54, "word": " gold,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3808.54, "end": 3809.0, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3809.0, "end": 3809.48, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3809.48, "end": 3809.76, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3809.76, "end": 3809.96, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3809.96, "end": 3810.08, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3810.08, "end": 3810.54, "word": " has.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3810.76, "end": 3811.04, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3811.04, "end": 3811.3, "word": " really", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3811.3, "end": 3811.62, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3811.62, "end": 3811.86, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3811.86, "end": 3812.14, "word": " because", "probability": 0.5625 }, { "start": 3812.14, "end": 3812.56, "word": " I,", "probability": 0.646484375 }, { "start": 3812.8, "end": 3813.08, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3813.08, "end": 3813.12, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3813.22, "end": 3813.3, "word": " when", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3813.3, "end": 3813.42, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3813.42, "end": 3818.22, "text": "have these ranges like this, normally what happens is you eventually test them. Even though", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3813.42, "end": 3813.66, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3813.66, "end": 3813.9, "word": " these", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3813.9, "end": 3814.26, "word": " ranges", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3814.26, "end": 3814.6, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3814.6, "end": 3814.98, "word": " this,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3815.2, "end": 3815.48, "word": " normally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3815.48, "end": 3815.64, "word": " what", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 3815.64, "end": 3816.04, "word": " happens", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3816.04, "end": 3816.38, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3816.38, "end": 3816.52, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3816.52, "end": 3817.0, "word": " eventually", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3817.0, "end": 3817.38, "word": " test", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3817.38, "end": 3817.68, "word": " them.", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3817.94, "end": 3818.08, "word": " Even", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3818.08, "end": 3818.22, "word": " though", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3818.22, "end": 3823.84, "text": "you don't want to, you eventually test them. It's no different than the ETH Bitcoin chart,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3818.22, "end": 3818.36, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3818.36, "end": 3818.56, "word": " don't", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3818.56, "end": 3818.72, "word": " want", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3818.72, "end": 3818.96, "word": " to,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3819.22, "end": 3819.5, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3819.5, "end": 3819.88, "word": " eventually", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3819.88, "end": 3820.18, "word": " test", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3820.18, "end": 3820.36, "word": " them.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3820.44, "end": 3820.6, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3820.6, "end": 3820.84, "word": " no", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3820.84, "end": 3821.3, "word": " different", "probability": 0.97900390625 }, { "start": 3821.3, "end": 3822.06, "word": " than", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3822.06, "end": 3822.6, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3822.6, "end": 3822.96, "word": " ETH", "probability": 0.96533203125 }, { "start": 3822.96, "end": 3823.42, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.982421875 }, { "start": 3823.42, "end": 3823.84, "word": " chart,", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3824.2, "end": 3829.66, "text": "the ETH market cap divided by the Bitcoin market cap chart. I spent years telling people", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3824.2, "end": 3824.56, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3824.56, "end": 3824.8, "word": " ETH", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3824.8, "end": 3825.16, "word": " market", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 3825.16, "end": 3825.54, "word": " cap", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3825.54, "end": 3826.18, "word": " divided", "probability": 0.98193359375 }, { "start": 3826.18, "end": 3826.44, "word": " by", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3826.44, "end": 3826.58, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3826.58, "end": 3826.92, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3826.92, "end": 3827.24, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3827.24, "end": 3827.48, "word": " cap", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3827.48, "end": 3827.72, "word": " chart.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3827.92, "end": 3828.28, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3828.28, "end": 3828.58, "word": " spent", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3828.58, "end": 3829.04, "word": " years", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3829.04, "end": 3829.34, "word": " telling", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3829.34, "end": 3829.66, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3829.66, "end": 3834.06, "text": "that this thing was heading back down to the floor. And it did eventually, right? It did", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3829.66, "end": 3829.82, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3829.82, "end": 3830.0, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3830.0, "end": 3830.12, "word": " thing", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3830.12, "end": 3830.28, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3830.28, "end": 3830.46, "word": " heading", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3830.46, "end": 3830.66, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3830.66, "end": 3830.86, "word": " down", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3830.86, "end": 3830.98, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 3830.98, "end": 3831.06, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3831.06, "end": 3831.32, "word": " floor.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3831.64, "end": 3832.04, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 3832.04, "end": 3832.18, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3832.18, "end": 3832.38, "word": " did", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3832.38, "end": 3832.88, "word": " eventually,", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3833.56, "end": 3833.72, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 3833.9, "end": 3833.9, "word": " It", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3833.9, "end": 3834.06, "word": " did", "probability": 0.98974609375 } ] }, { "start": 3834.06, "end": 3839.4, "text": "eventually. It took a long time. And eventually it did. Same thing with Solana. I spent", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3834.06, "end": 3834.36, "word": " eventually.", "probability": 0.98193359375 }, { "start": 3834.48, "end": 3834.52, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3834.52, "end": 3834.66, "word": " took", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3834.66, "end": 3834.78, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3834.78, "end": 3834.92, "word": " long", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3834.92, "end": 3835.34, "word": " time.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3835.62, "end": 3836.02, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3836.02, "end": 3836.34, "word": " eventually", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3836.34, "end": 3836.52, "word": " it", "probability": 0.90966796875 }, { "start": 3836.52, "end": 3836.68, "word": " did.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3836.88, "end": 3837.28, "word": " Same", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3837.28, "end": 3837.48, "word": " thing", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3837.48, "end": 3837.68, "word": " with", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3837.68, "end": 3838.12, "word": " Solana.", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 3838.48, "end": 3838.88, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3838.88, "end": 3839.4, "word": " spent", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3839.4, "end": 3843.82, "text": "years telling people that this thing was heading back down to the floor. Guess what? It", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3839.4, "end": 3839.96, "word": " years", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3839.96, "end": 3840.86, "word": " telling", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3840.86, "end": 3841.22, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3841.22, "end": 3841.68, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3841.68, "end": 3841.86, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3841.86, "end": 3842.0, "word": " thing", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3842.0, "end": 3842.14, "word": " was", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3842.14, "end": 3842.28, "word": " heading", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3842.28, "end": 3842.48, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3842.48, "end": 3842.66, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3842.66, "end": 3842.8, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3842.8, "end": 3842.84, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3842.84, "end": 3843.0, "word": " floor.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3843.16, "end": 3843.3, "word": " Guess", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3843.3, "end": 3843.52, "word": " what?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3843.68, "end": 3843.82, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3843.82, "end": 3848.92, "text": "hasn't yet. And guess what? I will continue to spend years telling you that it probably", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3843.82, "end": 3844.14, "word": " hasn't", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3844.14, "end": 3844.36, "word": " yet.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3844.88, "end": 3845.28, "word": " And", "probability": 0.8388671875 }, { "start": 3845.28, "end": 3845.42, "word": " guess", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3845.42, "end": 3845.62, "word": " what?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3845.7, "end": 3845.82, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3845.82, "end": 3845.96, "word": " will", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3845.96, "end": 3846.34, "word": " continue", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3846.34, "end": 3846.52, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3846.52, "end": 3846.68, "word": " spend", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3846.68, "end": 3847.08, "word": " years", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3847.08, "end": 3847.78, "word": " telling", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 3847.78, "end": 3848.04, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3848.04, "end": 3848.42, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 3848.42, "end": 3848.52, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3848.52, "end": 3848.92, "word": " probably", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3848.92, "end": 3853.0, "text": "eventually will and i might be wrong about it there are a few altcoins that go against what", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3848.92, "end": 3849.3, "word": " eventually", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3849.3, "end": 3849.68, "word": " will", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3849.68, "end": 3849.92, "word": " and", "probability": 0.35546875 }, { "start": 3849.92, "end": 3850.06, "word": " i", "probability": 0.71826171875 }, { "start": 3850.06, "end": 3850.28, "word": " might", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3850.28, "end": 3850.44, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3850.44, "end": 3850.68, "word": " wrong", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3850.68, "end": 3850.9, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3850.9, "end": 3851.08, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3851.08, "end": 3851.24, "word": " there", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3851.24, "end": 3851.42, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3851.42, "end": 3851.54, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3851.54, "end": 3851.64, "word": " few", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3851.64, "end": 3852.16, "word": " altcoins", "probability": 0.885498046875 }, { "start": 3852.16, "end": 3852.4, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3852.4, "end": 3852.54, "word": " go", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3852.54, "end": 3852.82, "word": " against", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3852.82, "end": 3853.0, "word": " what", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3853.0, "end": 3858.98, "text": "i think but it's hard to look at these charts and not just assume that eventually this just", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3853.0, "end": 3853.12, "word": " i", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3853.12, "end": 3853.48, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3853.48, "end": 3854.16, "word": " but", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3854.16, "end": 3854.78, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3854.78, "end": 3855.08, "word": " hard", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3855.08, "end": 3855.32, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3855.32, "end": 3855.5, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3855.5, "end": 3855.6, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3855.6, "end": 3855.8, "word": " these", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3855.8, "end": 3856.22, "word": " charts", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3856.22, "end": 3856.88, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3856.88, "end": 3857.06, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3857.06, "end": 3857.28, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3857.28, "end": 3857.66, "word": " assume", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3857.66, "end": 3857.82, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3857.82, "end": 3858.22, "word": " eventually", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3858.22, "end": 3858.78, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3858.78, "end": 3858.98, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3858.98, "end": 3862.62, "text": "comes back down to the lows the range lows people didn't think it was going to happen with", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3858.98, "end": 3859.22, "word": " comes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3859.22, "end": 3859.4, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3859.4, "end": 3859.62, "word": " down", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3859.62, "end": 3859.76, "word": " to", "probability": 0.75830078125 }, { "start": 3859.76, "end": 3859.84, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3859.84, "end": 3860.12, "word": " lows", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3860.12, "end": 3860.46, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3860.46, "end": 3860.7, "word": " range", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3860.7, "end": 3860.96, "word": " lows", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3860.96, "end": 3861.46, "word": " people", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3861.46, "end": 3861.7, "word": " didn't", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3861.7, "end": 3861.84, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3861.84, "end": 3861.94, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3861.94, "end": 3862.04, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3862.04, "end": 3862.12, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9794921875 }, { "start": 3862.12, "end": 3862.2, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3862.2, "end": 3862.4, "word": " happen", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3862.4, "end": 3862.62, "word": " with", "probability": 0.9970703125 } ] }, { "start": 3862.62, "end": 3868.44, "text": "eth and it did i think it'll happen with solana too and when you look at the bitcoin gold", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3862.62, "end": 3862.82, "word": " eth", "probability": 0.58154296875 }, { "start": 3862.82, "end": 3863.5, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3863.5, "end": 3863.64, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3863.64, "end": 3863.94, "word": " did", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3863.94, "end": 3864.7, "word": " i", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3864.7, "end": 3864.88, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3864.88, "end": 3865.06, "word": " it'll", "probability": 0.998291015625 }, { "start": 3865.06, "end": 3865.26, "word": " happen", 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"words": [ { "start": 3868.44, "end": 3869.04, "word": " valuation", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3869.04, "end": 3870.12, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3873.12, "end": 3876.44, "text": "was my base case when i sort of said it a few weeks ago and then bitcoin just kind of kept", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3873.12, "end": 3873.26, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3873.26, "end": 3873.42, "word": " my", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3873.42, "end": 3873.64, "word": " base", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 3873.64, "end": 3873.94, "word": " case", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3873.94, "end": 3874.18, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3874.18, "end": 3874.28, "word": " i", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3874.28, "end": 3874.48, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3874.48, "end": 3874.58, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { 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3876.28, "end": 3876.44, "word": " kept", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3876.44, "end": 3882.52, "text": "going up you might say well how is this possible like how could how could bitcoin have", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3876.44, "end": 3876.66, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3876.66, "end": 3876.92, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3876.92, "end": 3878.3, "word": " you", "probability": 0.1524658203125 }, { "start": 3878.3, "end": 3878.42, "word": " might", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3878.42, "end": 3878.56, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3878.56, "end": 3878.68, "word": " well", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 3878.68, "end": 3878.84, "word": " how", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3878.84, "end": 3879.0, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3879.0, "end": 3879.12, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3879.12, "end": 3879.54, 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But gold put", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3907.54, "end": 3908.02, "word": " before", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 3908.02, "end": 3908.32, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3908.32, "end": 3908.5, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3908.5, "end": 3908.86, "word": " up.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3909.3, "end": 3910.04, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3910.04, "end": 3910.68, "word": " gold", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 3910.68, "end": 3911.8, "word": " put", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3913.37, "end": 3915.77, "text": "in a high in 1974", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3913.37, "end": 3913.53, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3913.53, "end": 3913.61, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3913.61, "end": 3914.01, "word": " high", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3914.01, "end": 3915.09, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3915.09, "end": 3915.77, "word": " 1974", "probability": 0.99658203125 } ] }, { "start": 3917.21, "end": 3924.09, "text": "and then put in a higher high in late 1974, early 1975. So", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3917.21, "end": 3918.01, "word": " and", "probability": 0.95703125 }, { "start": 3918.01, "end": 3918.13, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3918.13, "end": 3918.31, "word": " put", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3918.31, "end": 3918.43, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3918.43, "end": 3918.51, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3918.51, "end": 3918.83, "word": " higher", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3918.83, "end": 3919.23, "word": " high", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3919.23, "end": 3920.03, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3920.03, "end": 3920.33, "word": " late", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3920.33, "end": 3921.07, "word": " 1974,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3921.57, "end": 3922.07, "word": " early", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3922.07, "end": 3922.69, "word": " 1975.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3923.37, "end": 3924.09, "word": " So", "probability": 0.98779296875 } ] }, { "start": 3924.09, "end": 3930.91, "text": "that's exactly how it could happen. What if gold", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3924.09, "end": 3926.09, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.90576171875 }, { "start": 3926.09, "end": 3926.49, "word": " exactly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3926.49, "end": 3926.73, "word": " how", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3926.73, "end": 3926.91, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3926.91, "end": 3927.03, "word": " could", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3927.03, "end": 3927.35, "word": " happen.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3928.35, "end": 3929.15, "word": " What", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3929.15, "end": 3929.65, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3929.65, "end": 3930.91, "word": " gold", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3930.91, "end": 3937.65, "text": "bottoms soon, right? because yields are topping and gold starts to head back up. But", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3930.91, "end": 3931.69, "word": " bottoms", "probability": 0.96142578125 }, { "start": 3931.69, "end": 3932.29, "word": " soon,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3932.71, "end": 3933.11, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.9853515625 }, { "start": 3933.11, "end": 3933.89, "word": " because", "probability": 0.6240234375 }, { "start": 3933.89, "end": 3934.23, "word": " yields", "probability": 0.861328125 }, { "start": 3934.23, "end": 3934.41, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3934.41, "end": 3934.79, "word": " topping", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3934.79, "end": 3935.49, "word": " and", "probability": 0.6962890625 }, { "start": 3935.49, "end": 3935.85, "word": " gold", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3935.85, "end": 3936.19, "word": " starts", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3936.19, "end": 3936.33, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3936.33, "end": 3936.47, "word": " head", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3936.47, "end": 3936.69, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3936.69, "end": 3937.01, "word": " up.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3937.23, "end": 3937.65, "word": " But", "probability": 0.98876953125 } ] }, { "start": 3937.65, "end": 3944.35, "text": "remember, in 1974, when gold went back up, silver went up, but not near the highs,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3937.65, "end": 3937.97, "word": " remember,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3938.15, "end": 3938.19, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3938.19, "end": 3938.91, "word": " 1974,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3939.41, "end": 3939.73, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3939.73, "end": 3940.05, "word": " gold", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3940.05, "end": 3940.27, "word": " went", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3940.27, "end": 3940.49, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3940.49, "end": 3940.81, "word": " up,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3941.33, "end": 3941.65, "word": " silver", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3941.65, "end": 3942.41, "word": " went", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3942.41, "end": 3942.75, "word": " up,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3942.85, "end": 3943.21, "word": " but", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3943.21, "end": 3943.43, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3943.43, "end": 3943.63, "word": " near", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3943.63, "end": 3943.79, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3943.79, "end": 3944.35, "word": " highs,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3945.05, "end": 3952.01, "text": "right? It consolidated for a while. And what you'll notice here is if you zoom out,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3945.05, "end": 3945.17, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3945.17, "end": 3945.45, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3945.45, "end": 3946.23, "word": " consolidated", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3946.23, "end": 3947.11, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3947.11, "end": 3947.23, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3947.23, "end": 3947.47, "word": " while.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3948.27, "end": 3948.59, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 3948.59, "end": 3948.79, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3948.79, "end": 3948.99, "word": " you'll", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3948.99, "end": 3949.35, "word": " notice", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3949.35, "end": 3949.77, "word": " here", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3950.43, "end": 3951.07, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 3951.07, "end": 3951.23, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 3951.23, "end": 3951.35, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3951.35, "end": 3951.63, "word": " zoom", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3951.63, "end": 3952.01, "word": " out,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3952.85, "end": 3959.59, "text": "you look at the bar pattern in 1974 to silver's next top. I'm", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3952.85, "end": 3953.49, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3953.49, "end": 3953.65, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3953.65, "end": 3953.75, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3953.75, "end": 3953.85, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3953.85, "end": 3954.11, "word": " bar", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3954.11, "end": 3954.57, "word": " pattern", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3954.57, "end": 3954.99, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3954.99, "end": 3956.01, "word": " 1974", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3956.01, "end": 3956.83, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 3956.83, "end": 3957.49, "word": " silver's", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3957.49, "end": 3958.07, "word": " next", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3958.07, "end": 3958.53, "word": " top.", "probability": 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3994.74, "text": "the year -to -date ROI, right? If you look at the year -to -date ROI of gold in", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3988.06, "end": 3988.14, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3988.14, "end": 3988.28, "word": " year", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 3988.28, "end": 3988.4, "word": "-to", "probability": 0.92822265625 }, { "start": 3988.4, "end": 3988.5, "word": "-date", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3988.5, "end": 3988.88, "word": " ROI,", "probability": 0.94775390625 }, { "start": 3989.34, "end": 3989.48, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.9794921875 }, { "start": 3989.72, "end": 3989.94, "word": " If", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3989.94, "end": 3990.0, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3990.0, "end": 3990.14, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3990.14, "end": 3990.24, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3990.24, "end": 3990.32, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3990.32, "end": 3990.42, "word": " year", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3990.42, "end": 3990.54, "word": "-to", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3990.54, "end": 3990.62, "word": "-date", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3990.62, "end": 3990.94, "word": " ROI", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3990.94, "end": 3992.38, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3992.38, "end": 3993.6, "word": " gold", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3993.6, "end": 3994.74, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3997.24, "end": 4000.32, "text": "2026, right, and 1974,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 3997.24, "end": 3998.04, "word": " 2026,", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3998.4, "end": 3998.86, "word": " right,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3999.42, "end": 3999.7, "word": " and", "probability": 0.92724609375 }, { "start": 3999.7, "end": 4000.32, "word": " 1974,", "probability": 0.99609375 } ] }, { "start": 4002.3, "end": 4006.22, "text": "you can see it rallied, it then dropped, and then it rallied to new highs before the end of", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 4002.3, "end": 4002.62, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4002.62, "end": 4002.74, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4002.74, "end": 4002.9, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4002.9, "end": 4003.06, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4003.06, "end": 4003.72, "word": " rallied,", "probability": 0.9248046875 }, { "start": 4003.8, "end": 4003.92, "word": " it", "probability": 0.96533203125 }, { "start": 4003.92, "end": 4004.06, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 4004.06, "end": 4004.48, "word": " dropped,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4004.54, "end": 4004.7, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4004.7, "end": 4004.78, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4004.78, "end": 4004.92, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4004.92, "end": 4005.3, "word": " rallied", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4005.3, "end": 4005.4, "word": " to", "probability": 0.91015625 }, { "start": 4005.4, "end": 4005.5, "word": " new", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 4005.5, "end": 4005.76, "word": " highs", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4005.76, "end": 4006.0, "word": " before", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 4006.0, "end": 4006.1, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4006.1, "end": 4006.16, "word": " end", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 4006.16, "end": 4006.22, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 4006.22, "end": 4010.74, "text": "the year. But in that same year, when you look at silver,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 4006.22, "end": 4006.28, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 4006.28, "end": 4006.44, "word": " year.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4006.76, "end": 4007.08, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4007.08, "end": 4007.4, "word": " in", "probability": 0.98828125 }, { "start": 4007.4, "end": 4007.66, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4007.66, "end": 4008.06, "word": " same", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4008.06, "end": 4008.52, "word": " year,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4008.7, "end": 4009.86, "word": " when", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 4009.86, "end": 4009.94, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4009.94, "end": 4010.12, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4010.12, "end": 4010.3, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4010.3, "end": 4010.74, "word": " silver,", "probability": 0.99072265625 } ] }, { "start": 4014.11, "end": 4017.09, "text": "we don't have it on here. Of course, we only go back to 1976.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 4014.11, "end": 4014.87, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4014.87, "end": 4014.97, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4014.97, "end": 4015.15, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4015.15, "end": 4015.23, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4015.23, "end": 4015.33, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4015.33, "end": 4015.49, "word": " here.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4015.61, "end": 4015.73, "word": " Of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4015.73, "end": 4015.95, "word": " course,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4016.01, "end": 4016.13, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4016.13, "end": 4016.25, "word": " only", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4016.25, "end": 4016.35, "word": " go", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4016.35, "end": 4016.47, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4016.47, "end": 4016.55, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4016.55, "end": 4017.09, "word": " 1976.", "probability": 0.998046875 } ] }, { "start": 4018.33, "end": 4022.97, "text": "But you can imagine, right? Like we sort of showed it on this chart. 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much could. If it does, it might, you know, it might really affect", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 4203.19, "end": 4203.33, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4203.33, "end": 4203.45, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 4203.45, "end": 4203.81, "word": " q4", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4203.81, "end": 4204.05, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4204.05, "end": 4204.21, "word": " still", "probability": 0.98828125 }, { "start": 4204.21, "end": 4204.41, "word": " very", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4204.41, "end": 4204.59, "word": " much", "probability": 0.9609375 }, { "start": 4204.59, "end": 4204.93, "word": " could.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4205.25, "end": 4205.65, "word": " If", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4205.65, "end": 4205.79, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4205.79, "end": 4206.19, "word": " does,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4206.65, "end": 4207.41, "word": " it", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 4207.41, "end": 4207.75, "word": " might,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4207.79, "end": 4208.57, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 4208.57, "end": 4208.65, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4208.71, "end": 4208.89, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4208.89, "end": 4209.07, "word": " might", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4209.07, "end": 4209.33, "word": " really", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4209.33, "end": 4209.71, "word": " affect", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 4209.71, "end": 4216.35, "text": "the psyche of people that that were in this breakout. They would probably become sellers", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 4209.71, "end": 4210.01, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4210.01, "end": 4210.39, "word": " psyche", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4210.39, "end": 4210.57, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4210.57, "end": 4210.89, "word": " people", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 4210.89, "end": 4211.37, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4211.37, "end": 4211.95, "word": " that", "probability": 0.2587890625 }, { "start": 4211.95, "end": 4212.45, "word": " were", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 4212.45, "end": 4213.55, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4213.55, "end": 4213.73, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4213.73, "end": 4214.11, "word": " breakout.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4214.85, "end": 4215.25, "word": " They", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4215.25, "end": 4215.35, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4215.35, "end": 4215.61, "word": " probably", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4215.61, "end": 4215.91, "word": " become", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4215.91, "end": 4216.35, "word": " sellers", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 4216.35, "end": 4222.15, "text": "in a few months if we if we rally back up. 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When I started the YouTube channel, and there are certainly times", "avg_logprob": -0.12275598491442964, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 50.5, "end": 50.9, "word": " with", "probability": 0.95947265625 }, { "start": 50.9, "end": 51.06, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 51.06, "end": 51.34, "word": " guys", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 51.34, "end": 51.92, "word": " since", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 51.92, "end": 52.4, "word": " 2019.", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 53.16, "end": 53.68, "word": " When", "probability": 0.966796875 }, { "start": 53.68, "end": 53.78, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 53.78, "end": 54.0, "word": " started", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 54.0, "end": 54.12, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 54.12, "end": 54.3, "word": " YouTube", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 54.3, "end": 54.62, "word": " channel,", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 54.64, "end": 55.3, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 55.3, "end": 55.74, "word": " there", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 55.74, "end": 55.96, "word": " are", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 55.96, "end": 56.8, "word": " certainly", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 56.8, "end": 57.34, "word": " times", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 57.34, "end": 66.16, "text": "where uncertainty gets to some pretty high levels and and it feels like it's there's forces pulling", "avg_logprob": -0.13534007988431873, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 57.34, "end": 58.1, "word": " where", "probability": 0.61962890625 }, { "start": 58.1, "end": 58.92, "word": " uncertainty", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 58.92, "end": 59.28, "word": " gets", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 59.28, "end": 59.46, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 59.46, "end": 59.64, "word": " some", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 59.64, "end": 60.06, "word": " pretty", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 60.06, "end": 60.38, "word": " high", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 60.38, "end": 60.86, "word": " levels", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 60.86, "end": 61.88, "word": " and", "probability": 0.381103515625 }, { "start": 61.88, "end": 62.24, "word": " and", "probability": 0.2230224609375 }, { "start": 62.24, "end": 62.44, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 62.44, "end": 63.38, "word": " feels", "probability": 0.982421875 }, { "start": 63.38, "end": 63.8, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 63.8, "end": 64.12, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.983154296875 }, { "start": 64.12, "end": 64.74, "word": " there's", "probability": 0.990966796875 }, { "start": 64.74, "end": 65.64, "word": " forces", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 65.64, "end": 66.16, "word": " pulling", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 66.16, "end": 72.32, "text": "Bitcoin in either direction. 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So if you're a bull, you could understand the bear, the bear", "avg_logprob": -0.0583169284298664, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 150.42, "end": 150.98, "word": " exactly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 150.98, "end": 151.2, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 151.2, "end": 151.36, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 151.36, "end": 151.52, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 151.52, "end": 151.62, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 151.62, "end": 151.68, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 151.68, "end": 151.92, "word": " market.", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 152.12, "end": 152.52, "word": " So", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 152.52, "end": 152.96, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 152.96, "end": 153.2, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 153.2, "end": 153.42, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 153.42, "end": 153.82, "word": " bull,", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 154.12, "end": 154.46, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 154.46, "end": 154.72, "word": " could", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 154.72, "end": 155.24, "word": " understand", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 155.24, "end": 155.46, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 155.46, "end": 155.74, "word": " bear,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 155.94, "end": 156.18, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 156.18, "end": 156.36, "word": " bear", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 156.36, "end": 161.32, "text": "case. 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Or", "avg_logprob": -0.08968750052154065, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 168.2, "end": 168.36, "word": " low", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 168.36, "end": 168.82, "word": " 80s.", "probability": 0.993408203125 }, { "start": 168.9, "end": 169.36, "word": " We're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 169.36, "end": 169.54, "word": " either", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 169.54, "end": 169.7, "word": " going", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 169.7, "end": 169.78, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 169.78, "end": 169.98, "word": " go", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 169.98, "end": 170.32, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 170.32, "end": 171.2, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 171.2, "end": 171.7, "word": " print", "probability": 0.96923828125 }, { "start": 171.7, "end": 171.86, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 171.86, "end": 172.0, "word": " new", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 172.0, "end": 172.32, "word": " local", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 172.32, "end": 172.72, "word": " high", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 172.72, "end": 173.16, "word": " above", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 173.16, "end": 173.8, "word": " 87k", "probability": 0.900634765625 }, { "start": 173.8, "end": 174.56, "word": " really,", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 174.68, "end": 174.82, "word": " really", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 174.82, "end": 175.18, "word": " soon.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 175.38, "end": 175.92, "word": " Or", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 175.92, "end": 181.1, "text": "it's going to be a fake breakout and then all the technical indicators break down. 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Okay.", "avg_logprob": -0.08968750052154065, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 181.1, "end": 181.42, "word": " through", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 181.42, "end": 182.08, "word": " so", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 182.08, "end": 182.24, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 182.24, "end": 182.44, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 182.44, "end": 182.66, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 182.66, "end": 183.4, "word": " understand", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 183.4, "end": 184.4, "word": " where", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 184.4, "end": 184.56, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 184.56, "end": 184.88, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 184.88, "end": 185.18, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 185.18, "end": 185.5, "word": " why", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 185.5, "end": 185.74, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 185.74, 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And as it stands right now, it is still holding just above the 50 day", "avg_logprob": -0.06911671192062144, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 216.28, "end": 216.74, "word": " and", "probability": 0.55859375 }, { "start": 216.74, "end": 217.52, "word": " it", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 217.52, "end": 217.9, "word": " continued", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 217.9, "end": 218.26, "word": " higher.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 218.54, "end": 219.06, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 219.06, "end": 219.24, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 219.24, "end": 219.36, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 219.36, "end": 219.62, "word": " stands", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 219.62, "end": 219.8, "word": " right", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 219.8, "end": 220.08, "word": " now,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 220.3, "end": 220.78, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 220.78, "end": 220.9, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 220.9, "end": 221.1, "word": " still", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 221.1, "end": 221.44, "word": " holding", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 221.44, "end": 221.84, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 221.84, "end": 222.12, "word": " above", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 222.12, "end": 222.3, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 222.3, "end": 222.52, "word": " 50", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 222.52, "end": 222.62, "word": " day", "probability": 0.482666015625 } ] }, { "start": 222.62, "end": 230.44, "text": "moving average. Okay. 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It is retesting a prior high. And what you'll notice is that", "avg_logprob": -0.051296657210008964, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 241.96, "end": 242.56, "word": " necessarily", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 242.56, "end": 243.06, "word": " bearish", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 243.06, "end": 243.22, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 243.22, "end": 243.38, "word": " its", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 243.38, "end": 243.68, "word": " own.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 243.96, "end": 244.62, "word": " It", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 244.62, "end": 245.0, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 245.0, "end": 245.98, "word": " retesting", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 245.98, "end": 246.24, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 246.24, "end": 246.54, "word": " prior", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 246.54, "end": 246.9, "word": " high.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 247.12, "end": 247.78, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 247.78, "end": 248.14, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 248.14, "end": 248.32, "word": " you'll", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 248.32, "end": 248.6, "word": " notice", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 248.6, "end": 249.02, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 249.02, "end": 249.32, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 249.32, "end": 257.34, "text": "when Bitcoin has previously broken down from sort of like a wick low, that formed a bottom", "avg_logprob": -0.051296657210008964, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 249.32, "end": 250.06, "word": " when", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 250.06, "end": 250.46, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 250.46, "end": 251.2, "word": " has", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 251.2, "end": 252.0, "word": " previously", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 252.0, "end": 252.46, "word": " broken", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 252.46, "end": 252.84, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 252.84, "end": 253.12, "word": " from", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 253.12, "end": 253.3, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.97900390625 }, { "start": 253.3, "end": 253.4, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 253.4, "end": 253.56, "word": " like", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 253.56, "end": 253.76, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 253.76, "end": 254.32, "word": " wick", "probability": 0.964111328125 }, { "start": 254.32, "end": 254.66, "word": " low,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 254.94, "end": 255.76, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 255.76, "end": 256.72, "word": " formed", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 256.72, "end": 257.08, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 257.08, "end": 257.34, "word": " bottom", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 257.34, "end": 264.76, "text": "that then yielded a new high. So as it stands right now, that is something that the bulls can", "avg_logprob": -0.051296657210008964, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 257.34, "end": 257.8, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 257.8, "end": 257.98, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 257.98, "end": 258.58, "word": " yielded", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 258.58, "end": 258.78, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 258.78, "end": 259.06, "word": " new", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 259.06, "end": 259.48, "word": " high.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 259.78, "end": 260.44, "word": " So", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 260.44, "end": 260.88, "word": " as", "probability": 0.970703125 }, { "start": 260.88, "end": 261.0, "word": " it", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 261.0, "end": 261.24, "word": " stands", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 261.24, "end": 261.46, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 261.46, "end": 261.84, "word": " now,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 262.1, "end": 263.16, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 263.16, "end": 263.36, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 263.36, "end": 263.74, "word": " something", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 263.74, "end": 264.06, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 264.06, "end": 264.24, "word": " the", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 264.24, "end": 264.6, "word": " bulls", "probability": 0.991455078125 }, { "start": 264.6, "end": 264.76, "word": " can", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 264.76, "end": 273.7, "text": "point to and say, look, so what if we swept the low? Why can't we just do the same thing we did", "avg_logprob": -0.03983638126332805, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 264.76, "end": 264.98, "word": " point", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 264.98, "end": 265.26, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 265.26, "end": 266.04, "word": " and", "probability": 0.8916015625 }, { "start": 266.04, "end": 266.42, "word": " say,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 266.76, "end": 267.36, "word": " look,", "probability": 0.94384765625 }, { "start": 267.62, "end": 268.84, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 268.84, "end": 269.16, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 269.16, "end": 269.58, "word": " if", "probability": 0.98828125 }, { "start": 269.58, "end": 269.76, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 269.76, "end": 270.12, "word": " swept", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 270.12, "end": 270.34, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 270.34, "end": 270.58, "word": " low?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 270.78, "end": 271.18, "word": " Why", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 271.18, "end": 271.54, "word": " can't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 271.54, "end": 271.74, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 271.74, "end": 272.3, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 272.3, "end": 273.04, "word": " do", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 273.04, "end": 273.18, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 273.18, "end": 273.34, "word": " same", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 273.34, "end": 273.46, "word": " thing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 273.46, "end": 273.6, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 273.6, "end": 273.7, "word": " did", "probability": 0.99609375 } ] }, { "start": 273.7, "end": 278.98, "text": "last time, right? Sweep the low, consolidate over the weekend, you know, potentially, and then head", "avg_logprob": -0.03983638126332805, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 273.7, "end": 273.94, "word": " last", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 273.94, "end": 274.16, "word": " time,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 274.26, "end": 274.32, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 274.48, "end": 274.68, "word": " Sweep", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 274.68, "end": 274.84, "word": " the", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 274.84, "end": 275.12, "word": " low,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 275.64, "end": 276.12, "word": " consolidate", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 276.12, "end": 276.46, "word": " over", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 276.46, "end": 276.6, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 276.6, "end": 277.04, "word": " weekend,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 277.32, "end": 277.7, "word": " you", "probability": 0.85888671875 }, { "start": 277.7, "end": 277.8, "word": " know,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 277.96, "end": 278.26, "word": " potentially,", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 278.54, "end": 278.62, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 278.62, "end": 278.76, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 278.76, "end": 278.98, "word": " head", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 278.98, "end": 286.54, "text": "back up by Sunday night. Okay. Now, this is certainly a compelling case. Now, I've, you know,", "avg_logprob": -0.03983638126332805, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 278.98, "end": 279.24, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 279.24, "end": 279.44, "word": " up", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 279.44, "end": 279.66, "word": " by", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 279.66, "end": 279.98, "word": " Sunday", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 279.98, "end": 280.24, "word": " night.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 280.46, "end": 280.98, "word": " Okay.", "probability": 0.90478515625 }, { "start": 281.62, "end": 282.14, "word": " Now,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 282.3, "end": 283.08, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 283.08, "end": 283.62, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 283.62, "end": 284.38, "word": " certainly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 284.38, "end": 284.6, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 284.6, "end": 284.88, "word": " compelling", "probability": 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But what I was not expecting was I was not expecting the rally to take out the prior high.", "avg_logprob": -0.13746843885893772, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 309.02, "end": 309.86, "word": " at", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 309.86, "end": 310.68, "word": " 57K.", "probability": 0.745849609375 }, { "start": 311.14, "end": 311.68, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 311.68, "end": 312.2, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 312.2, "end": 312.32, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 312.32, "end": 312.52, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 312.52, "end": 312.82, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 312.82, "end": 313.4, "word": " expecting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 313.4, "end": 314.04, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 314.04, "end": 314.58, "word": " I", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 314.58, "end": 314.74, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 314.74, "end": 315.0, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 315.0, "end": 315.48, "word": " expecting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 315.48, "end": 315.66, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 315.66, "end": 316.0, "word": " rally", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 316.0, "end": 316.28, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 316.28, "end": 316.5, "word": " take", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 316.5, "end": 316.66, "word": " out", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 316.66, "end": 316.82, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 316.82, "end": 317.06, "word": " prior", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 317.06, "end": 317.42, "word": " high.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 317.62, "end": 323.84, "text": "OK, and that kind of messed me up a little bit because it made sense for the low to occur.", "avg_logprob": -0.13746843885893772, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 317.62, "end": 317.98, "word": " OK,", "probability": 0.89306640625 }, { "start": 318.34, "end": 318.64, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 318.64, "end": 318.94, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 318.94, "end": 319.14, "word": " kind", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 319.14, "end": 319.32, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 319.32, "end": 320.3, "word": " messed", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 320.3, "end": 320.48, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 320.48, "end": 320.7, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 320.7, "end": 320.84, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 320.84, "end": 320.94, "word": " little", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 320.94, "end": 321.14, "word": " bit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 321.14, "end": 321.4, "word": " because", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 321.4, "end": 321.66, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 321.66, "end": 321.98, "word": " made", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 321.98, "end": 322.46, "word": " sense", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 322.46, "end": 322.8, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 322.8, "end": 322.96, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 322.96, "end": 323.22, "word": " low", "probability": 0.97802734375 }, { "start": 323.22, "end": 323.48, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 323.48, "end": 323.84, "word": " occur.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 324.1, "end": 331.12, "text": "at around 57k. I mean, in 2018, we had a low at 5700. 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And you can see that happened many, many times.", "avg_logprob": -0.11144497735887511, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 393.3, "end": 393.78, "word": " normally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 393.78, "end": 394.0, "word": " it", "probability": 0.91845703125 }, { "start": 394.0, "end": 394.22, "word": " means", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 394.22, "end": 394.36, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 394.36, "end": 394.52, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 394.52, "end": 394.96, "word": " market's", "probability": 0.992431640625 }, { "start": 394.96, "end": 395.2, "word": " over,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 395.38, "end": 395.72, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 395.88, "end": 396.0, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 396.0, "end": 396.32, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 396.32, "end": 396.46, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 396.46, "end": 396.62, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 396.62, "end": 396.78, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 396.78, "end": 397.18, "word": " happened", "probability": 0.97412109375 }, { "start": 397.18, "end": 397.84, "word": " many,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 397.96, "end": 398.12, "word": " many", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 398.12, "end": 398.56, "word": " times.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 399.5, "end": 404.72, "text": "And from a RSI perspective, right, if you were to look at the relative strength index,", "avg_logprob": -0.11144497735887511, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 399.5, "end": 399.98, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 399.98, "end": 400.46, "word": " from", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 400.46, "end": 400.9, "word": " a", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 400.9, "end": 401.64, "word": " RSI", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 401.64, "end": 402.44, "word": " perspective,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 402.82, "end": 402.9, "word": " right,", "probability": 0.95751953125 }, { "start": 402.96, "end": 403.04, "word": " if", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 403.04, "end": 403.1, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 403.1, "end": 403.16, "word": " were", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 403.16, "end": 403.24, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 403.24, "end": 403.34, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 403.34, "end": 403.44, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 403.44, "end": 403.54, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 403.54, "end": 403.9, "word": " relative", "probability": 0.74560546875 }, { "start": 403.9, "end": 404.22, "word": " strength", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 404.22, "end": 404.72, "word": " index,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 405.12, "end": 412.2, "text": "you can see that, you know, it looks like Bitcoin here, technically speaking, has done what it does", "avg_logprob": -0.06259765736758709, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 405.12, "end": 405.48, "word": " you", "probability": 0.60302734375 }, { "start": 405.48, "end": 405.66, "word": " can", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 405.66, "end": 405.9, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 405.9, "end": 406.26, "word": " that,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 406.3, "end": 406.56, "word": " you", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 406.56, "end": 406.66, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 406.82, "end": 406.94, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 406.94, "end": 407.24, "word": " looks", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 407.24, "end": 407.62, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 407.62, "end": 408.26, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 408.26, "end": 408.84, "word": " here,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 409.42, "end": 409.96, "word": " technically", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 409.96, "end": 410.4, "word": " speaking,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 410.76, "end": 411.44, "word": " has", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 411.44, "end": 411.7, "word": " done", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 411.7, "end": 411.86, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 411.86, "end": 411.98, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 411.98, "end": 412.2, "word": " does", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 412.2, "end": 417.04, "text": "every bear market, right? And that's go down to these lows. And then it goes up and it kind of,", "avg_logprob": -0.06259765736758709, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 412.2, "end": 412.5, "word": " every", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 412.5, "end": 412.68, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.97705078125 }, { "start": 412.68, "end": 413.04, "word": " market,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 413.26, "end": 413.34, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 413.42, "end": 413.5, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 413.5, "end": 413.68, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.9814453125 }, { "start": 413.68, "end": 413.84, "word": " go", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 413.84, "end": 414.02, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 414.02, "end": 414.16, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 414.16, "end": 414.32, "word": " these", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 414.32, "end": 414.68, "word": " lows.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 414.96, "end": 415.4, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 415.4, "end": 415.54, "word": " then", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 415.54, "end": 415.66, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 415.66, "end": 415.92, "word": " goes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 415.92, "end": 416.22, "word": " up", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 416.22, "end": 416.38, "word": " and", "probability": 0.86669921875 }, { "start": 416.38, "end": 416.52, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 416.52, "end": 416.74, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 416.74, "end": 417.04, "word": " of,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 417.14, "end": 424.06, "text": "you know, catches some people off guard. 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bulls have a case and if you want to compare to 2019 which i think is a relevant", "avg_logprob": -0.05879480632788995, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 458.0, "end": 458.52, "word": " right", "probability": 0.22216796875 }, { "start": 458.52, "end": 459.48, "word": " so", "probability": 0.1954345703125 }, { "start": 459.48, "end": 460.3, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 460.3, "end": 460.98, "word": " bulls", "probability": 0.94384765625 }, { "start": 460.98, "end": 462.24, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 462.24, "end": 462.36, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 462.36, "end": 462.8, "word": " case", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 462.8, "end": 463.68, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 463.68, "end": 464.34, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 464.34, "end": 464.48, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 464.48, "end": 464.72, "word": " want", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 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"text": "no, this is not like 2019. But now, of course, it makes more sense for them to favor it because it", "avg_logprob": -0.06199269364406536, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 484.29, "end": 484.51, "word": " no,", "probability": 0.671875 }, { "start": 484.67, "end": 484.97, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 484.97, "end": 485.11, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 485.11, "end": 485.25, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 485.25, "end": 485.41, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 485.41, "end": 485.81, "word": " 2019.", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 486.03, "end": 486.47, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 486.47, "end": 486.95, "word": " now,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 487.15, "end": 488.19, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.19, "end": 488.35, "word": " course,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.47, "end": 488.57, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.57, "end": 488.75, "word": " makes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.75, "end": 488.93, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 488.93, "end": 489.19, "word": " sense", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.19, "end": 489.33, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.33, "end": 489.45, "word": " them", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 489.45, "end": 489.63, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 489.63, "end": 490.15, "word": " favor", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 490.15, "end": 490.33, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 490.33, "end": 490.59, "word": " because", "probability": 0.94873046875 }, { "start": 490.59, "end": 490.83, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 490.83, "end": 499.13, "text": "more so aligns with their bias. And so what I was saying was that the 2019 post apathetic top", "avg_logprob": -0.06199269364406536, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 490.83, "end": 491.05, "word": " more", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 491.05, "end": 491.23, "word": " so", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 491.23, "end": 491.61, "word": " aligns", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 491.61, "end": 491.71, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 491.71, "end": 491.85, "word": " their", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 491.85, "end": 492.21, "word": " bias.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 492.41, "end": 492.93, "word": " And", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 492.93, "end": 493.17, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.17, "end": 493.69, "word": " what", "probability": 0.98486328125 }, { "start": 493.69, "end": 493.83, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.83, "end": 493.97, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 493.97, "end": 494.23, "word": " saying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 494.23, "end": 494.57, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 494.57, "end": 495.25, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 495.25, "end": 495.85, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 495.85, "end": 496.55, "word": " 2019", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 496.55, "end": 497.69, "word": " post", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 497.69, "end": 498.77, "word": " apathetic", "probability": 0.7915852864583334 }, { "start": 498.77, "end": 499.13, "word": " top", "probability": 0.9931640625 } ] }, { "start": 499.13, "end": 508.33, "text": "downturn would align with the 2026 bear market. Now, what's interesting is if you overlay the", "avg_logprob": -0.06199269364406536, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 499.13, "end": 499.93, "word": " downturn", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 499.93, "end": 500.71, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 500.71, "end": 501.39, "word": " align", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 501.39, "end": 501.93, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 501.93, "end": 502.11, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 502.11, "end": 503.09, "word": " 2026", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 503.09, "end": 503.85, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 503.85, "end": 504.27, "word": " market.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 504.47, "end": 504.95, "word": " Now,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 505.11, "end": 505.31, "word": " what's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 505.31, "end": 505.79, "word": " interesting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 505.79, "end": 506.23, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 506.23, "end": 506.41, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 506.41, "end": 506.57, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 506.57, "end": 507.39, "word": " overlay", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 507.39, "end": 508.33, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 508.33, "end": 514.71, "text": "2019 bear market with where Bitcoin is now, you can see that the lows would have occurred at around", "avg_logprob": -0.031694769859313965, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 508.33, "end": 508.93, "word": " 2019", "probability": 0.9462890625 }, { "start": 508.93, "end": 509.33, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 509.33, "end": 509.79, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 509.79, "end": 510.61, "word": " with", "probability": 0.8544921875 }, { "start": 510.61, "end": 510.81, "word": " where", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 510.81, "end": 511.09, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 511.09, "end": 511.47, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 511.47, "end": 511.83, "word": " now,", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 512.07, "end": 512.49, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 512.49, "end": 512.67, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 512.67, "end": 512.89, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 512.89, "end": 513.09, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 513.09, "end": 513.23, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 513.23, "end": 513.71, "word": " lows", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 513.71, "end": 513.93, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 513.93, "end": 514.01, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 514.01, "end": 514.29, "word": " occurred", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 514.29, "end": 514.51, "word": " at", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 514.51, "end": 514.71, "word": " around", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 514.71, "end": 521.95, "text": "the same time. But what's different is that in 2019, there was price-based capitulation where", "avg_logprob": -0.031694769859313965, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 514.71, "end": 514.87, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 514.87, "end": 515.09, "word": " same", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 515.09, "end": 515.47, "word": " time.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 515.73, "end": 516.17, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 516.17, "end": 516.45, "word": " what's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 516.45, "end": 517.01, "word": " different", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 517.01, "end": 517.85, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 517.85, "end": 518.03, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 518.03, "end": 518.19, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 518.19, "end": 518.81, "word": " 2019,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 518.81, "end": 519.51, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 519.51, "end": 519.71, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 519.71, "end": 520.27, "word": " price", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 520.27, "end": 520.55, "word": "-based", "probability": 0.80615234375 }, { "start": 520.55, "end": 521.29, "word": " capitulation", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 521.29, "end": 521.95, "word": " where", "probability": 0.916015625 } ] }, { "start": 521.95, "end": 528.63, "text": "we reset a lot of the on-chain indicators, right? So if you're just looking at it like this, you", "avg_logprob": -0.031694769859313965, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 521.95, "end": 522.17, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 522.17, "end": 522.81, "word": " reset", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 522.81, "end": 523.59, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 523.59, "end": 523.71, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 523.71, "end": 523.83, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 523.83, "end": 523.91, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 523.91, "end": 524.11, "word": " on", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 524.11, "end": 524.25, "word": "-chain", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 524.25, "end": 524.81, "word": " indicators,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 525.39, "end": 525.59, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 525.89, "end": 526.33, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 526.33, "end": 527.13, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9462890625 }, { "start": 527.13, "end": 527.29, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 527.29, "end": 527.51, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 527.51, "end": 527.77, "word": " looking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 527.77, "end": 527.95, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 527.95, "end": 528.03, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 528.03, "end": 528.19, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 528.19, "end": 528.47, "word": " this,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 528.59, "end": 528.63, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 528.63, "end": 533.89, "text": "could say, well, look, Bitcoin had about a nine-month bear market, but it also had a nine-month", "avg_logprob": -0.031694769859313965, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 528.63, "end": 528.73, "word": " could", "probability": 0.984375 }, { "start": 528.73, "end": 528.87, "word": " say,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 528.97, "end": 529.03, "word": " well,", "probability": 0.98486328125 }, { "start": 529.15, "end": 529.33, "word": " look,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 529.79, "end": 530.23, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 530.23, "end": 530.57, "word": " had", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 530.57, "end": 530.79, "word": " about", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 530.79, "end": 530.95, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 530.95, "end": 531.23, "word": " nine", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 531.23, "end": 531.45, "word": "-month", "probability": 0.981689453125 }, { "start": 531.45, "end": 531.65, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 531.65, "end": 532.07, "word": " market,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.07, "end": 533.05, "word": " but", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 533.05, "end": 533.15, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 533.15, "end": 533.33, "word": " also", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 533.33, "end": 533.49, "word": " had", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 533.49, "end": 533.55, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 533.55, "end": 533.71, "word": " nine", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 533.71, "end": 533.89, "word": "-month", "probability": 0.999755859375 } ] }, { "start": 533.89, "end": 540.57, "text": "bear market after the 2019 apathetic top as well. So why is that not enough? 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Because that's not your typical", "avg_logprob": -0.11344400971817474, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 869.14, "end": 869.28, "word": " to", "probability": 0.72802734375 }, { "start": 869.28, "end": 869.48, "word": " late", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 869.48, "end": 869.98, "word": " December", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 869.98, "end": 870.86, "word": " seems", "probability": 0.85986328125 }, { "start": 870.86, "end": 871.04, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 871.04, "end": 871.18, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 871.18, "end": 871.5, "word": " pretty", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 871.5, "end": 871.84, "word": " long", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 871.84, "end": 872.06, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 872.06, "end": 872.52, "word": " market,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 872.76, "end": 872.88, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.9501953125 }, { "start": 873.02, "end": 873.24, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 873.24, "end": 873.58, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 873.58, "end": 873.92, "word": " not", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 873.92, "end": 875.08, "word": " your", "probability": 0.6015625 }, { "start": 875.08, "end": 875.46, "word": " typical", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 875.46, "end": 882.66, "text": "year-long bear market. And if you're looking at late December, that's closer to 60 weeks rather", "avg_logprob": -0.11344400971817474, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 875.46, "end": 875.82, "word": " year", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 875.82, "end": 876.0, "word": "-long", "probability": 0.7420654296875 }, { "start": 876.0, "end": 876.26, "word": " bear", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 876.26, "end": 876.7, "word": " market.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 876.86, "end": 877.32, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 877.32, "end": 877.72, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 877.72, "end": 877.86, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 877.86, "end": 878.1, "word": " looking", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 878.1, "end": 878.36, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 878.36, "end": 878.88, "word": " late", "probability": 0.9775390625 }, { "start": 878.88, "end": 879.48, "word": " December,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 879.48, "end": 880.36, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 880.36, "end": 880.72, "word": " closer", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 880.72, "end": 881.12, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 881.12, "end": 881.64, "word": " 60", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 881.64, "end": 882.06, "word": " weeks", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 882.06, "end": 882.66, "word": " rather", "probability": 0.966796875 } ] }, { "start": 882.66, "end": 890.12, "text": "than 52 or 54. And if you look at the last two bear markets, the last one was about 54 weeks,", "avg_logprob": -0.11344400971817474, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 882.66, "end": 883.08, "word": " than", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 883.08, "end": 884.1, "word": " 52", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 884.1, "end": 884.42, "word": " or", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 884.42, "end": 884.84, "word": " 54.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 885.18, "end": 885.56, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 885.56, "end": 885.7, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 885.7, "end": 885.76, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 885.76, "end": 885.9, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 885.9, "end": 885.98, "word": " at", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 885.98, "end": 886.06, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 886.06, "end": 886.3, "word": " last", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 886.3, "end": 886.48, "word": " two", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 886.48, "end": 886.68, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 886.68, "end": 887.2, "word": " markets,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 887.48, "end": 887.96, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 887.96, "end": 888.26, "word": " last", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 888.26, "end": 888.42, "word": " one", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 888.42, "end": 888.6, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 888.6, "end": 888.92, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 888.92, "end": 889.6, "word": " 54", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 889.6, "end": 890.12, "word": " weeks,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 890.12, "end": 897.98, "text": "and the one before that was about 52 weeks. As it stands right now where the current low is,", "avg_logprob": -0.11344400971817474, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 890.12, "end": 890.9, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 890.9, "end": 891.02, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 891.02, "end": 891.16, "word": " one", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 891.16, "end": 891.44, "word": " before", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 891.44, "end": 891.92, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 891.92, "end": 892.92, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 892.92, "end": 893.26, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 893.26, "end": 894.04, "word": " 52", "probability": 0.8173828125 }, { "start": 894.04, "end": 894.74, "word": " weeks.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 894.92, "end": 895.56, "word": " As", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 895.56, "end": 895.68, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 895.68, "end": 896.02, "word": " stands", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 896.02, "end": 896.26, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 896.26, "end": 896.56, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 896.56, "end": 896.76, "word": " where", "probability": 0.48828125 }, { "start": 896.76, "end": 896.9, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 896.9, "end": 897.14, "word": " current", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 897.14, "end": 897.48, "word": " low", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 897.48, "end": 897.98, "word": " is,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 897.98, "end": 905.1, "text": "this bear market was about 38 weeks, which is more in line with what happened in 2019,", "avg_logprob": -0.13938376001108474, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 897.98, "end": 898.72, "word": " this", "probability": 0.771484375 }, { "start": 898.72, "end": 898.92, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 898.92, "end": 899.3, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 899.3, "end": 900.62, "word": " was", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 900.62, "end": 901.06, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 901.06, "end": 901.74, "word": " 38", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 901.74, "end": 902.26, "word": " weeks,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 902.48, "end": 902.78, "word": " which", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 902.78, "end": 902.94, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 902.94, "end": 903.28, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 903.28, "end": 903.5, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 903.5, "end": 903.72, "word": " line", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 903.72, "end": 903.9, "word": " with", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 903.9, "end": 904.04, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 904.04, "end": 904.38, "word": " happened", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 904.38, "end": 904.56, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 904.56, "end": 905.1, "word": " 2019,", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 905.1, "end": 911.36, "text": "where it was about 37 weeks. However, again, back then we had price based capitulation.", "avg_logprob": -0.13938376001108474, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 905.1, "end": 905.94, "word": " where", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 905.94, "end": 906.04, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 906.04, "end": 906.14, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 906.14, "end": 906.34, "word": " about", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 906.34, "end": 906.82, "word": " 37", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 906.82, "end": 907.34, "word": " weeks.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 907.72, "end": 907.92, "word": " However,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 908.52, "end": 908.8, "word": " again,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 909.14, "end": 909.44, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 909.44, "end": 909.68, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 909.68, "end": 909.86, "word": " we", "probability": 0.77978515625 }, { "start": 909.86, "end": 910.12, "word": " had", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 910.12, "end": 910.5, "word": " price", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 910.5, "end": 910.74, "word": " based", "probability": 0.8037109375 }, { "start": 910.74, "end": 911.36, "word": " capitulation.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 911.78, "end": 916.58, "text": "Now, if you go further back, there are bear markets that are longer. For instance,", "avg_logprob": -0.13938376001108474, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 911.78, "end": 912.34, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 912.5, "end": 912.72, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 912.72, "end": 912.84, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 912.84, "end": 913.0, "word": " go", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 913.0, "end": 913.44, "word": " further", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 913.44, "end": 913.92, "word": " back,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 914.16, "end": 914.58, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 914.58, "end": 914.86, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 914.86, "end": 915.06, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 915.06, "end": 915.46, "word": " markets", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 915.46, "end": 915.62, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 915.62, "end": 915.72, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 915.72, "end": 916.06, "word": " longer.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 916.22, "end": 916.3, "word": " For", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 916.3, "end": 916.58, "word": " instance,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 916.78, "end": 922.58, "text": "the bear market in 2013 actually lasted about 59 weeks. So it's not like there's never,", "avg_logprob": -0.13938376001108474, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 916.78, "end": 916.84, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 916.84, "end": 916.98, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 916.98, "end": 917.26, "word": " market", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 917.26, "end": 917.4, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 917.4, "end": 917.94, "word": " 2013", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 917.94, "end": 918.68, "word": " actually", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 918.68, "end": 919.1, "word": " lasted", "probability": 0.489501953125 }, { "start": 919.1, "end": 919.44, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 919.44, "end": 920.1, "word": " 59", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 920.1, "end": 920.72, "word": " weeks.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 920.8, "end": 921.22, "word": " So", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 921.22, "end": 921.44, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 921.44, "end": 921.66, "word": " not", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 921.66, "end": 921.96, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 921.96, "end": 922.28, "word": " there's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 922.28, "end": 922.58, "word": " never,", "probability": 0.7890625 } ] }, { "start": 922.82, "end": 926.96, "text": "it's not like there's no prior bear markets for Bitcoin that have gone on longer", "avg_logprob": -0.13938376001108474, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 922.82, "end": 923.58, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 923.58, "end": 923.76, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 923.76, "end": 923.92, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 923.92, "end": 924.2, "word": " there's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 924.2, "end": 924.52, "word": " no", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 924.52, "end": 924.86, "word": " prior", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 924.86, "end": 925.08, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 925.08, "end": 925.4, "word": " markets", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 925.4, "end": 925.6, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 925.6, "end": 925.86, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 925.86, "end": 926.12, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 926.12, "end": 926.22, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 926.22, "end": 926.38, "word": " gone", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 926.38, "end": 926.58, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 926.58, "end": 926.96, "word": " longer", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 926.96, "end": 934.9, "text": "than a year, a 59-week bear market would actually put you in late November for a low if it were to", "avg_logprob": -0.08089398941661738, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 926.96, "end": 927.56, "word": " than", "probability": 0.98681640625 }, { "start": 927.56, "end": 927.7, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 927.7, "end": 928.06, "word": " year,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 928.3, "end": 929.36, "word": " a", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 929.36, "end": 929.82, "word": " 59", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 929.82, "end": 930.18, "word": "-week", "probability": 0.7646484375 }, { "start": 930.18, "end": 930.38, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 930.38, "end": 930.7, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 930.7, "end": 930.92, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 930.92, "end": 931.16, "word": " actually", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 931.16, "end": 931.38, "word": " put", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 931.38, "end": 931.54, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 931.54, "end": 931.7, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 931.7, "end": 931.92, "word": " late", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 931.92, "end": 932.36, "word": " November", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 932.36, "end": 933.2, "word": " for", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 933.2, "end": 933.78, "word": " a", "probability": 0.9677734375 }, { "start": 933.78, "end": 934.02, "word": " low", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 934.02, "end": 934.62, "word": " if", "probability": 0.8701171875 }, { "start": 934.62, "end": 934.72, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 934.72, "end": 934.8, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 934.8, "end": 934.9, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 934.9, "end": 942.56, "text": "take as long as it did in 2014. But the main difference between now and 2014 is that in 2014,", "avg_logprob": -0.08089398941661738, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 934.9, "end": 935.08, "word": " take", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 935.08, "end": 935.24, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 935.24, "end": 935.5, "word": " long", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 935.5, "end": 935.78, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 935.78, "end": 935.86, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 935.86, "end": 936.04, "word": " did", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 936.04, "end": 936.3, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 936.3, "end": 936.78, "word": " 2014.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 937.58, "end": 938.08, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 938.08, "end": 938.56, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 938.56, "end": 938.74, "word": " main", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 938.74, "end": 939.12, "word": " difference", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 939.12, "end": 939.38, "word": " between", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 939.38, "end": 939.76, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 939.76, "end": 940.0, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 940.0, "end": 940.54, "word": " 2014", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 940.54, "end": 941.4, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 941.4, "end": 941.68, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 941.68, "end": 942.0, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 942.0, "end": 942.56, "word": " 2014,", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 943.32, "end": 949.46, "text": "Bitcoin was not above the 50-week moving average, right? So I think, you know, when you look at all", "avg_logprob": -0.08089398941661738, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 943.32, "end": 943.82, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 943.82, "end": 944.28, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 944.28, "end": 944.56, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 944.56, "end": 944.8, "word": " above", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 944.8, "end": 944.92, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 944.92, "end": 945.12, "word": " 50", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 945.12, "end": 945.24, "word": "-week", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 945.24, "end": 945.42, "word": " moving", "probability": 0.955078125 }, { "start": 945.42, "end": 945.74, "word": " average,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 945.94, "end": 946.3, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 946.52, "end": 946.9, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 946.9, "end": 947.62, "word": " I", "probability": 0.9619140625 }, { "start": 947.62, "end": 948.12, "word": " think,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 948.32, "end": 948.66, "word": " you", "probability": 0.88671875 }, { "start": 948.66, "end": 948.7, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 948.78, "end": 948.84, "word": " when", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 948.84, "end": 948.94, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 948.94, "end": 949.1, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 949.1, "end": 949.22, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 949.22, "end": 949.46, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 949.46, "end": 957.88, "text": "of this, I think the most relevant view is this 2019 view, because that's the only time where", "avg_logprob": -0.06610576759327899, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 949.46, "end": 949.58, "word": " of", "probability": 0.62451171875 }, { "start": 949.58, "end": 949.88, "word": " this,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 950.08, "end": 950.16, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 950.16, "end": 950.36, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 950.36, "end": 950.52, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 950.52, "end": 951.02, "word": " most", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 951.02, "end": 951.66, "word": " relevant", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 951.66, "end": 953.12, "word": " view", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 953.12, "end": 954.14, "word": " is", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 954.14, "end": 954.4, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 954.4, "end": 954.94, "word": " 2019", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 954.94, "end": 955.5, "word": " view,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 955.5, "end": 956.12, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 956.12, "end": 956.48, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 956.48, "end": 956.58, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 956.58, "end": 956.82, "word": " only", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 956.82, "end": 957.18, "word": " time", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 957.18, "end": 957.88, "word": " where", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 957.88, "end": 966.36, "text": "Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria. It's the only time we had that quantitative", "avg_logprob": -0.06610576759327899, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 957.88, "end": 958.3, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 958.3, "end": 959.16, "word": " topped", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 959.16, "end": 959.56, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 959.56, "end": 960.26, "word": " apathy", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 960.26, "end": 961.3, "word": " rather", "probability": 0.9482421875 }, { "start": 961.3, "end": 961.54, "word": " than", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 961.54, "end": 961.94, "word": " euphoria.", "probability": 0.997314453125 }, { "start": 962.4, "end": 962.96, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 962.96, "end": 963.06, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 963.06, "end": 963.28, "word": " only", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 963.28, "end": 963.74, "word": " time", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 963.74, "end": 964.38, "word": " we", "probability": 0.55078125 }, { "start": 964.38, "end": 964.64, "word": " had", "probability": 0.84814453125 }, { "start": 964.64, "end": 965.64, "word": " that", "probability": 0.708984375 }, { "start": 965.64, "end": 966.36, "word": " quantitative", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 966.36, "end": 971.52, "text": "tightening came to an end and then Bitcoin topped just before QT ended and then went into this", "avg_logprob": -0.06610576759327899, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 966.36, "end": 966.78, "word": " tightening", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 966.78, "end": 967.1, "word": " came", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 967.1, "end": 967.3, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 967.3, "end": 967.44, "word": " an", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 967.44, "end": 967.68, "word": " end", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 967.68, "end": 967.86, "word": " and", "probability": 0.7666015625 }, { "start": 967.86, "end": 967.96, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 967.96, "end": 968.32, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 968.32, "end": 968.74, "word": " topped", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 968.74, "end": 969.26, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 969.26, "end": 969.66, "word": " before", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 969.66, "end": 970.12, "word": " QT", "probability": 0.97314453125 }, { "start": 970.12, "end": 970.4, "word": " ended", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 970.4, "end": 970.68, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 970.68, "end": 970.8, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 970.8, "end": 970.98, "word": " went", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 970.98, "end": 971.3, "word": " into", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 971.3, "end": 971.52, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 971.52, "end": 979.2, "text": "digestion phase, right? Same thing. 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But what's happening now is different than what happened", "avg_logprob": -0.0649739584989018, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 985.24, "end": 985.66, "word": " 2025,", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 986.16, "end": 986.68, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 986.68, "end": 986.82, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 986.82, "end": 987.0, "word": " three", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 987.0, "end": 987.18, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 987.18, "end": 987.54, "word": " cuts.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 988.08, "end": 988.68, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 988.68, "end": 989.44, "word": " what's", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 989.44, "end": 989.7, "word": " happening", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 989.7, "end": 990.24, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 990.24, "end": 991.06, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 991.06, "end": 991.48, "word": " different", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 991.48, "end": 991.8, "word": " than", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 991.8, "end": 991.94, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 991.94, "end": 992.3, "word": " happened", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 992.3, "end": 1002.36, "text": "in 2019. In 2019, Bitcoin was struggling to break out, but the Fed was cutting rates. They just", "avg_logprob": -0.0649739584989018, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 992.3, "end": 992.64, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 992.64, "end": 993.14, "word": " 2019.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 993.56, "end": 994.16, "word": " In", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 994.16, "end": 994.76, "word": " 2019,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 995.6, "end": 995.96, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 995.96, "end": 996.76, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 996.76, "end": 997.26, "word": " struggling", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 997.26, "end": 998.16, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 998.16, "end": 999.1, "word": " break", "probability": 0.96923828125 }, { "start": 999.1, "end": 999.74, "word": " out,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 999.76, "end": 1000.88, "word": " but", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1000.88, "end": 1001.04, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1001.04, "end": 1001.24, "word": " Fed", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1001.24, "end": 1001.42, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1001.42, "end": 1001.68, "word": " cutting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1001.68, "end": 1002.04, "word": " rates.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1002.14, "end": 1002.2, "word": " They", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1002.2, "end": 1002.36, "word": " just", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 1002.36, "end": 1006.7, "text": "weren't cutting rates fast enough. 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And then if you overlay", "avg_logprob": -0.04989919178588416, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1018.84, "end": 1019.16, "word": " doing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1019.16, "end": 1019.92, "word": " in", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1019.92, "end": 1020.54, "word": " 2019,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1020.54, "end": 1022.4, "word": " through", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1022.4, "end": 1022.62, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1022.62, "end": 1023.14, "word": " digestion", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 1023.14, "end": 1023.54, "word": " phase,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1023.54, "end": 1024.0, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1024.0, "end": 1024.14, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1024.14, "end": 1024.58, "word": " basically", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1024.58, "end": 1024.94, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1024.94, "end": 1025.06, 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"end": 1112.06, "text": "rather than just listen to the chart, right?", "avg_logprob": -0.1318359419416923, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1108.96, "end": 1109.28, "word": " rather", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 1109.28, "end": 1109.56, "word": " than", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1109.56, "end": 1109.78, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1109.78, "end": 1110.96, "word": " listen", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1110.96, "end": 1111.1, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1111.1, "end": 1111.22, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1111.22, "end": 1111.58, "word": " chart,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1111.6, "end": 1112.06, "word": " right?", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1112.06, "end": 1119.68, "text": "so i think there's there's competing forces and when you look at the roi of bitcoin after a rate", "avg_logprob": -0.052552081644535065, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 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that do happen,", "avg_logprob": -0.18542479758616537, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1335.14, "end": 1335.56, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1335.56, "end": 1335.88, "word": " while", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1335.88, "end": 1336.04, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1336.04, "end": 1336.28, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1336.28, "end": 1336.56, "word": " other", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1336.56, "end": 1337.04, "word": " extremes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1337.04, "end": 1337.32, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1337.32, "end": 1337.46, "word": " do", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1337.46, "end": 1337.84, "word": " happen,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1337.98, "end": 1340.8, "text": "like there's extremes where you just have a two to three year bear market,", "avg_logprob": -0.18542479758616537, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1337.98, "end": 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"end": 1463.64, "word": " bulls", "probability": 0.987548828125 } ] }, { "start": 1463.64, "end": 1469.32, "text": "is if you have a pandemic-like crash.", "avg_logprob": -0.1999446881555878, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1463.64, "end": 1464.58, "word": " is", "probability": 0.61669921875 }, { "start": 1464.58, "end": 1465.08, "word": " if", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1465.08, "end": 1466.38, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 1466.38, "end": 1466.8, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1466.8, "end": 1467.42, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1467.42, "end": 1468.02, "word": " pandemic", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1468.02, "end": 1468.7, "word": "-like", "probability": 0.865966796875 }, { "start": 1468.7, "end": 1469.32, "word": " crash.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1469.66, "end": 1471.48, "text": "That's the only way, right?", "avg_logprob": -0.1999446881555878, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1469.66, "end": 1470.2, "word": " That's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 1470.2, "end": 1470.32, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1470.32, "end": 1470.54, "word": " only", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1470.54, "end": 1470.84, "word": " way,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1471.34, "end": 1471.48, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 1471.58, "end": 1472.22, "text": "It's the only way.", "avg_logprob": -0.1999446881555878, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1471.58, "end": 1471.74, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.989990234375 }, { "start": 1471.74, "end": 1471.82, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1471.82, "end": 1471.98, "word": " only", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1471.98, "end": 1472.22, "word": " way.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1472.44, "end": 1474.8, "text": "Because someone's got to be wrong", "avg_logprob": 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It probably unwinds like that, right? Because everyone that was relying on the", "avg_logprob": -0.0471658902044626, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1504.76, "end": 1504.98, "word": " many,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1505.04, "end": 1505.14, "word": " many", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1505.14, "end": 1505.54, "word": " months.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1505.58, "end": 1506.3, "word": " It", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1506.3, "end": 1506.64, "word": " probably", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1506.64, "end": 1507.46, "word": " unwinds", "probability": 0.9993489583333334 }, { "start": 1507.46, "end": 1508.1, "word": " like", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1508.1, "end": 1508.36, "word": " that,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1508.8, "end": 1508.92, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 1509.04, "end": 1509.3, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1509.3, "end": 1509.8, "word": " everyone", "probability": 1.0 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You see? Now, the reason this sort of poses a potential problem is that if the 10 year", "avg_logprob": -0.07817573013243737, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1716.8, "end": 1717.04, "word": " doing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1717.04, "end": 1717.46, "word": " okay.", "probability": 0.61376953125 }, { "start": 1718.44, "end": 1719.0, "word": " You", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 1719.0, "end": 1719.2, "word": " see?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1720.12, "end": 1720.68, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1721.06, "end": 1721.12, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1721.12, "end": 1721.92, "word": " reason", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 1721.92, "end": 1722.12, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1722.12, "end": 1722.28, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 1722.28, "end": 1722.38, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1722.38, "end": 1722.76, "word": " poses", 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or", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1774.23, "end": 1774.33, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1774.33, "end": 1774.43, "word": " could", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1774.43, "end": 1774.53, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1774.53, "end": 1774.65, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1774.65, "end": 1778.75, "text": "slightly higher high around the midterms i don't know think about it like around the midterms", "avg_logprob": -0.05472579616688046, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1774.65, "end": 1774.87, "word": " slightly", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 1774.87, "end": 1775.25, "word": " higher", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1775.25, "end": 1775.51, "word": " high", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 1775.51, "end": 1776.01, "word": " around", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1776.01, "end": 1776.15, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1776.15, "end": 1776.65, "word": " 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drops after the after the midterms what you'll", "avg_logprob": -0.05472579616688046, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1778.75, "end": 1779.43, "word": " but", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1779.43, "end": 1779.57, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1779.57, "end": 1779.85, "word": " after", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1779.85, "end": 1780.01, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1780.01, "end": 1780.55, "word": " midterms", "probability": 0.9993489583333334 }, { "start": 1780.55, "end": 1781.05, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1781.05, "end": 1781.33, "word": " 10", "probability": 0.9814453125 }, { "start": 1781.33, "end": 1781.59, "word": "-year", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 1781.59, "end": 1782.83, "word": " typically", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1782.83, "end": 1783.39, "word": " drops", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1783.39, "end": 1784.15, "word": " after", "probability": 1.0 }, { 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the 10-year yield was dropping in the last two midterm years, right? So if you look at", "avg_logprob": -0.057081652745123834, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1796.23, "end": 1796.71, "word": " when", "probability": 0.5556640625 }, { "start": 1796.71, "end": 1796.89, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1796.89, "end": 1797.13, "word": " 10", "probability": 0.98681640625 }, { "start": 1797.13, "end": 1797.27, "word": "-year", "probability": 0.767333984375 }, { "start": 1797.27, "end": 1797.61, "word": " yield", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1797.61, "end": 1797.81, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1797.81, "end": 1798.15, "word": " dropping", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1798.15, "end": 1798.53, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1798.53, "end": 1798.61, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1798.61, "end": 1798.81, "word": " last", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1798.81, "end": 1798.99, "word": " two", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1798.99, "end": 1799.33, "word": " midterm", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 1799.33, "end": 1799.59, "word": " years,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1799.71, "end": 1799.75, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1799.85, "end": 1799.93, "word": " So", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 1799.93, "end": 1800.03, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9423828125 }, { "start": 1800.03, "end": 1800.09, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1800.09, "end": 1800.27, "word": " look", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1800.27, "end": 1800.53, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1800.53, "end": 1807.69, "text": "the last cycle, you can see the final drop was right around the midterms. In 2018, the final", "avg_logprob": -0.057081652745123834, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1800.53, "end": 1801.29, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1801.29, "end": 1801.55, "word": " last", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1801.55, "end": 1801.99, "word": " cycle,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1802.23, "end": 1802.61, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1802.61, "end": 1802.75, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1802.75, "end": 1802.91, "word": " see", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1802.91, "end": 1803.03, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1803.03, "end": 1803.33, "word": " final", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1803.33, "end": 1803.75, "word": " drop", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1803.75, "end": 1804.37, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1804.37, "end": 1804.69, "word": " right", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1804.69, "end": 1805.07, "word": " around", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1805.07, "end": 1805.21, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1805.21, "end": 1805.77, "word": " midterms.", "probability": 0.9996744791666666 }, { "start": 1805.95, "end": 1806.19, "word": " In", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1806.19, "end": 1806.67, "word": " 2018,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1806.67, "end": 1807.43, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1807.43, "end": 1807.69, "word": " final", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 1807.69, "end": 1813.77, "text": "drop occurred right after the midterms. And in 2014, the final drop occurred right after the", "avg_logprob": -0.057081652745123834, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1807.69, "end": 1807.99, "word": " drop", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1807.99, "end": 1808.33, "word": " occurred", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1808.33, "end": 1808.59, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1808.59, "end": 1808.85, "word": " after", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1808.85, "end": 1808.97, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1808.97, "end": 1809.41, "word": " midterms.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1809.57, "end": 1809.65, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 1809.65, "end": 1809.77, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1809.77, "end": 1810.47, "word": " 2014,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1810.47, "end": 1811.35, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1811.35, "end": 1811.61, "word": " final", "probability": 1.0 }, { 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But there are times where the Dow drops first, and", "avg_logprob": -0.048891130444263256, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1861.72, "end": 1862.0, "word": " because", "probability": 0.86328125 }, { "start": 1862.0, "end": 1862.3, "word": " rates", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1862.3, "end": 1862.44, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1862.44, "end": 1862.66, "word": " gone", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1862.66, "end": 1862.94, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1862.94, "end": 1863.12, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1863.12, "end": 1863.24, "word": " little", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1863.24, "end": 1863.44, "word": " bit.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1863.62, "end": 1863.74, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 1863.74, "end": 1864.18, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1864.18, "end": 1864.3, "word": " are", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 1864.3, "end": 1864.62, "word": " times", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1864.62, "end": 1864.82, "word": " where", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1864.82, "end": 1864.94, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1864.94, "end": 1865.12, "word": " Dow", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 1865.12, "end": 1865.5, "word": " drops", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 1865.5, "end": 1865.86, "word": " first,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1866.08, "end": 1866.14, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 1866.14, "end": 1871.58, "text": "then rebounds and then drops more. In fact, that's what happened in, you know, 2024. It's also what", "avg_logprob": -0.048891130444263256, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1866.14, "end": 1866.26, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1866.26, "end": 1866.72, "word": " rebounds", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1866.72, "end": 1866.88, "word": " and", "probability": 0.90185546875 }, { "start": 1866.88, "end": 1867.0, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 1867.0, "end": 1867.26, "word": " drops", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1867.26, "end": 1867.52, "word": " more.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1867.8, "end": 1868.24, "word": " In", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1868.24, "end": 1868.4, "word": " fact,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1868.52, "end": 1868.72, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1868.72, "end": 1868.82, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1868.82, "end": 1869.18, "word": " happened", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1869.18, "end": 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To me, that's the sign that yields are in the topping", "avg_logprob": -0.060958059896764005, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 1903.08, "end": 1903.56, "word": " CPI", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1903.56, "end": 1903.96, "word": " report", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1903.96, "end": 1904.72, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9599609375 }, { "start": 1904.72, "end": 1904.86, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1904.86, "end": 1905.12, "word": " hot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1905.12, "end": 1905.6, "word": " PPI", "probability": 0.998779296875 }, { "start": 1905.6, "end": 1906.08, "word": " report,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1906.82, "end": 1906.94, "word": " okay?", "probability": 0.97021484375 }, { "start": 1907.3, "end": 1908.04, "word": " To", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1908.04, "end": 1908.32, "word": " me,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1908.5, "end": 1908.78, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1908.78, "end": 1908.92, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1908.92, "end": 1909.36, "word": " sign", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1909.36, "end": 1910.12, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1910.12, "end": 1910.42, "word": " yields", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1910.42, "end": 1910.58, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 1910.58, "end": 1910.68, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1910.68, "end": 1910.78, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 1910.78, "end": 1911.0, "word": " topping", "probability": 0.9912109375 } ] }, { "start": 1911.0, "end": 1920.7, "text": "process. 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So the things that are the if you think about like a risk curve,", "avg_logprob": -0.09655231277903785, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2320.76, "end": 2321.18, "word": " because", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2321.18, "end": 2321.38, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2321.38, "end": 2321.5, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 2321.5, "end": 2321.78, "word": " market", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2321.78, "end": 2321.92, "word": " had", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2321.92, "end": 2322.12, "word": " started.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2322.84, "end": 2323.4, "word": " So", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2323.4, "end": 2324.24, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2324.24, "end": 2324.86, "word": " things", "probability": 0.89404296875 }, { "start": 2324.86, "end": 2325.06, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2325.06, "end": 2325.22, "word": " are", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2325.22, "end": 2325.82, "word": " the", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 2325.82, "end": 2326.46, "word": " if", "probability": 0.79541015625 }, { "start": 2326.46, "end": 2326.54, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2326.54, "end": 2326.62, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2326.62, "end": 2326.76, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2326.76, "end": 2326.9, "word": " like", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2326.9, "end": 2327.02, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2327.02, "end": 2327.34, "word": " risk", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2327.34, "end": 2327.68, "word": " curve,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2327.68, "end": 2332.34, "text": "right? Altcoins are way over here, right? So you have alts that are way up here, they're really", "avg_logprob": -0.12320814466257708, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2327.68, "end": 2328.0, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.1558837890625 }, { "start": 2328.62, "end": 2329.1, "word": " Altcoins", "probability": 0.86328125 }, { "start": 2329.1, "end": 2329.32, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2329.32, "end": 2329.46, "word": " way", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2329.46, "end": 2329.66, "word": " over", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2329.66, "end": 2329.92, "word": " here,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2330.12, "end": 2330.2, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2330.24, "end": 2330.36, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2330.36, "end": 2330.44, "word": " you", "probability": 0.96142578125 }, { "start": 2330.44, "end": 2330.64, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2330.64, "end": 2331.16, "word": " alts", "probability": 0.97216796875 }, { "start": 2331.16, "end": 2331.42, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2331.42, "end": 2331.5, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2331.5, "end": 2331.62, "word": " way", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2331.62, "end": 2331.76, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2331.76, "end": 2331.86, "word": " here,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2331.98, "end": 2332.06, "word": " they're", "probability": 0.99267578125 }, { "start": 2332.06, "end": 2332.34, "word": " really", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2332.34, "end": 2338.58, "text": "high risk, right? And then below that, you've got Bitcoin. Okay, so think about it like that.", "avg_logprob": -0.12320814466257708, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2332.34, "end": 2332.62, "word": " high", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2332.62, "end": 2333.12, "word": " risk,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2333.42, "end": 2333.76, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2333.88, "end": 2333.94, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2333.94, "end": 2334.04, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2334.04, "end": 2334.34, "word": " below", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2334.34, "end": 2334.74, "word": " that,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2334.98, "end": 2335.44, "word": " you've", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2335.44, "end": 2335.62, "word": " got", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2335.62, "end": 2336.04, "word": " Bitcoin.", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 2337.0, "end": 2337.48, "word": " Okay,", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2337.68, "end": 2337.78, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2337.78, "end": 2337.92, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2337.92, "end": 2338.06, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2338.06, "end": 2338.14, "word": " it", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2338.14, "end": 2338.28, "word": " like", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2338.28, "end": 2338.58, "word": " that.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2340.63, "end": 2347.31, "text": "Alts did not get their bull market rally at the end, because Bitcoin went into a bear market.", "avg_logprob": -0.12320814466257708, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2340.63, "end": 2341.11, "word": " Alts", "probability": 0.979736328125 }, { "start": 2341.11, "end": 2341.55, "word": " did", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2341.55, "end": 2341.81, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2341.81, "end": 2342.11, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2342.11, "end": 2342.57, "word": " their", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2342.57, "end": 2343.05, "word": " bull", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2343.05, "end": 2343.41, "word": " market", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2343.41, "end": 2343.87, "word": " rally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2343.87, "end": 2344.11, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2344.11, "end": 2344.25, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2344.25, "end": 2344.59, "word": " end,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2344.87, "end": 2345.21, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2345.21, "end": 2345.71, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2345.71, "end": 2346.25, "word": " went", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2346.25, "end": 2346.53, "word": " into", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2346.53, "end": 2346.69, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2346.69, "end": 2346.91, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2346.91, "end": 2347.31, "word": " market.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2347.57, "end": 2353.55, "text": "Okay, now, that's where you have to start thinking about the S&P 500. 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For years. And the reality is,", "avg_logprob": -0.06377282437313808, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2353.55, "end": 2354.49, "word": " people", "probability": 0.92236328125 }, { "start": 2354.49, "end": 2354.63, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2354.63, "end": 2354.73, "word": " been", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2354.73, "end": 2354.97, "word": " calling", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2354.97, "end": 2355.17, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2355.17, "end": 2355.31, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2355.31, "end": 2355.75, "word": " recession", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2355.75, "end": 2356.31, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2356.31, "end": 2356.97, "word": " years,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2357.31, "end": 2357.47, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.9599609375 }, { "start": 2357.63, "end": 2357.71, "word": " For", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 2357.71, "end": 2358.09, "word": " years.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2358.29, "end": 2358.53, "word": " And", "probability": 0.962890625 }, { "start": 2358.53, "end": 2358.61, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2358.61, "end": 2358.87, "word": " reality", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2358.87, "end": 2359.11, "word": " is,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2359.13, "end": 2364.73, "text": "is no one really knows when it's going to happen. 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Like you can't look at initial claims and say that you're in a recession", "avg_logprob": -0.06377282437313808, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2364.73, "end": 2365.41, "word": " relatively", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2365.41, "end": 2365.97, "word": " low,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2366.25, "end": 2366.43, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2366.57, "end": 2366.69, "word": " Like", "probability": 0.859375 }, { "start": 2366.69, "end": 2366.81, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9482421875 }, { "start": 2366.81, "end": 2367.13, "word": " can't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2367.13, "end": 2367.35, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2367.35, "end": 2367.49, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2367.49, "end": 2367.83, "word": " initial", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2367.83, "end": 2368.33, "word": " claims", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2368.33, "end": 2368.61, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2368.61, "end": 2368.99, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2368.99, "end": 2369.21, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2369.21, "end": 2369.45, "word": " you're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2369.45, "end": 2369.55, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2369.55, "end": 2369.63, "word": " a", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2369.63, "end": 2369.97, "word": " recession", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 2369.97, "end": 2376.63, "text": "right now because this is not recessionary territory historically. I even have a recession", "avg_logprob": -0.06377282437313808, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2369.97, "end": 2370.19, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2370.19, "end": 2370.41, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2370.41, "end": 2370.67, "word": " because", "probability": 0.62646484375 }, { "start": 2370.67, "end": 2371.45, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2371.45, "end": 2371.63, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2371.63, "end": 2372.01, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2372.01, "end": 2372.97, "word": " recessionary", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2372.97, "end": 2373.53, "word": " territory", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2373.53, "end": 2374.19, "word": " historically.", "probability": 0.8603515625 }, { "start": 2374.63, "end": 2375.11, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2375.11, "end": 2375.35, "word": " even", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2375.35, "end": 2375.71, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2375.71, "end": 2375.97, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2375.97, "end": 2376.63, "word": " recession", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2376.63, "end": 2385.31, "text": "risk dashboard that shows right now that it's kind of low. And given the fact that we have", "avg_logprob": -0.024872448618466755, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2376.63, "end": 2377.41, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.9697265625 }, { "start": 2377.41, "end": 2378.31, "word": " dashboard", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2378.31, "end": 2379.23, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 2379.23, "end": 2379.73, "word": " shows", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2379.73, "end": 2380.11, "word": " right", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2380.11, "end": 2380.41, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2380.41, "end": 2380.73, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2380.73, "end": 2382.59, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2382.59, "end": 2382.77, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.904296875 }, { "start": 2382.77, "end": 2382.91, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2382.91, "end": 2383.25, "word": " low.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2383.49, "end": 2383.91, "word": " And", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 2383.91, "end": 2384.21, "word": " given", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2384.21, "end": 2384.41, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2384.41, "end": 2384.71, "word": " fact", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2384.71, "end": 2384.93, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2384.93, "end": 2385.05, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2385.05, "end": 2385.31, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2385.31, "end": 2392.01, "text": "the Anthropic IPO and the OpenAI IPO, it would seem kind of strange if we go into a recession", "avg_logprob": -0.024872448618466755, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2385.31, "end": 2385.53, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2385.53, "end": 2386.19, "word": " Anthropic", "probability": 0.926025390625 }, { "start": 2386.19, "end": 2386.65, "word": " IPO", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2386.65, "end": 2387.09, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2387.09, "end": 2387.21, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2387.21, "end": 2387.71, "word": " OpenAI", "probability": 0.98583984375 }, { "start": 2387.71, "end": 2388.25, "word": " IPO,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2388.69, "end": 2389.47, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2389.47, "end": 2389.63, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2389.63, "end": 2389.89, "word": " seem", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2389.89, "end": 2390.17, "word": " kind", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2390.17, "end": 2390.29, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2390.29, "end": 2390.69, "word": " strange", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2390.69, "end": 2391.01, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2391.01, "end": 2391.11, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2391.11, "end": 2391.27, "word": " go", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2391.27, "end": 2391.47, "word": " into", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2391.47, "end": 2391.61, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2391.61, "end": 2392.01, "word": " recession", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2392.01, "end": 2396.31, "text": "before that, right? It would make more sense to me that it would happen after that. And we haven't", "avg_logprob": -0.024872448618466755, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2392.01, "end": 2392.35, "word": " before", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2392.35, "end": 2392.73, "word": " that,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2392.93, "end": 2393.03, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2393.11, "end": 2393.21, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2393.21, "end": 2393.33, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2393.33, "end": 2393.49, "word": " make", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2393.49, "end": 2393.67, "word": " more", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2393.67, "end": 2393.93, "word": " sense", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2393.93, "end": 2394.07, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2394.07, "end": 2394.25, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2394.25, "end": 2394.45, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2394.45, "end": 2394.53, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2394.53, "end": 2394.61, "word": " would", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2394.61, "end": 2394.87, "word": " happen", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2394.87, "end": 2395.15, "word": " after", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2395.15, "end": 2395.49, "word": " that.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2395.57, "end": 2395.93, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2395.93, "end": 2396.05, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2396.05, "end": 2396.31, "word": " haven't", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2396.31, "end": 2401.43, "text": "had either of those yet. If you look at these, though, a lot of these aren't going to really", "avg_logprob": -0.024872448618466755, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2396.31, "end": 2396.47, "word": " had", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2396.47, "end": 2396.75, "word": " either", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2396.75, "end": 2396.91, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2396.91, "end": 2397.07, "word": " those", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2397.07, "end": 2397.29, "word": " yet.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2398.03, "end": 2398.47, "word": " If", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2398.47, "end": 2398.61, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2398.61, "end": 2398.95, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2398.95, "end": 2399.59, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2399.59, "end": 2399.85, "word": " these,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2399.97, "end": 2400.01, "word": " though,", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2400.17, "end": 2400.21, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2400.21, "end": 2400.33, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2400.33, "end": 2400.43, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2400.43, "end": 2400.57, "word": " these", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2400.57, "end": 2400.85, "word": " aren't", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2400.85, "end": 2401.07, "word": " going", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2401.07, "end": 2401.23, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2401.23, "end": 2401.43, "word": " really", "probability": 0.99755859375 } ] }, { "start": 2401.43, "end": 2407.13, "text": "show concern until after stocks start to drop because stocks move first, then it shows up in", "avg_logprob": -0.08938171754601182, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2401.43, "end": 2401.75, "word": " show", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2401.75, "end": 2402.45, "word": " concern", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2402.45, "end": 2402.95, "word": " until", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2402.95, "end": 2403.35, "word": " after", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2403.35, "end": 2403.95, "word": " stocks", "probability": 0.9580078125 }, { "start": 2403.95, "end": 2404.29, "word": " start", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2404.29, "end": 2404.45, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2404.45, "end": 2404.67, "word": " drop", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2404.67, "end": 2404.95, "word": " because", "probability": 0.52783203125 }, { "start": 2404.95, "end": 2405.39, "word": " stocks", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2405.39, "end": 2405.71, "word": " move", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2405.71, "end": 2406.17, "word": " first,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2406.39, "end": 2406.55, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2406.55, "end": 2406.67, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2406.67, "end": 2406.87, "word": " shows", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2406.87, "end": 2407.03, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2407.03, "end": 2407.13, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2407.13, "end": 2413.53, "text": "the economy. The only one of these that is sort of designed to show a little bit more concern first", "avg_logprob": -0.08938171754601182, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2407.13, "end": 2407.21, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2407.21, "end": 2407.59, "word": " economy.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2407.83, "end": 2408.25, "word": " The", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2408.25, "end": 2408.41, "word": " only", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2408.41, "end": 2408.59, "word": " one", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2408.59, "end": 2408.71, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2408.71, "end": 2408.93, "word": " these", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2408.93, "end": 2409.15, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2409.15, "end": 2409.35, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2409.35, "end": 2409.67, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.9384765625 }, { "start": 2409.67, "end": 2409.79, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2409.79, "end": 2410.35, "word": " designed", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2410.35, "end": 2411.07, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2411.07, "end": 2411.75, "word": " show", "probability": 0.94482421875 }, { "start": 2411.75, "end": 2412.01, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2412.01, "end": 2412.17, "word": " little", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2412.17, "end": 2412.35, "word": " bit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2412.35, "end": 2412.59, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2412.59, "end": 2413.09, "word": " concern", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2413.09, "end": 2413.53, "word": " first", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 2413.53, "end": 2419.49, "text": "is the interest rate risk. And if you look at the spread on the 10-year and the three-month,", "avg_logprob": -0.08938171754601182, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2413.53, "end": 2414.23, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2414.23, "end": 2414.41, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2414.41, "end": 2414.77, "word": " interest", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2414.77, "end": 2415.01, "word": " rate", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2415.01, "end": 2415.43, "word": " risk.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2415.57, "end": 2415.93, "word": " And", "probability": 0.97998046875 }, { "start": 2415.93, "end": 2416.07, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2416.07, "end": 2416.17, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2416.17, "end": 2416.37, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2416.37, "end": 2416.53, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2416.53, "end": 2416.71, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2416.71, "end": 2417.07, "word": " spread", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2417.07, "end": 2418.23, "word": " on", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2418.23, "end": 2418.35, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2418.35, "end": 2418.59, "word": " 10", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2418.59, "end": 2418.81, "word": "-year", "probability": 0.7166748046875 }, { "start": 2418.81, "end": 2418.95, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2418.95, "end": 2419.03, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2419.03, "end": 2419.21, "word": " three", "probability": 0.80517578125 }, { "start": 2419.21, "end": 2419.49, "word": "-month,", "probability": 0.99267578125 } ] }, { "start": 2419.79, "end": 2425.55, "text": "it's this metric that starts to show up first. Now, it's been going up recently.", "avg_logprob": -0.08938171754601182, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2419.79, "end": 2420.33, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2420.33, "end": 2420.77, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2420.77, "end": 2421.21, "word": " metric", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2421.21, "end": 2421.99, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2421.99, "end": 2422.37, "word": " starts", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2422.37, "end": 2422.55, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2422.55, "end": 2422.83, "word": " show", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2422.83, "end": 2423.05, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2423.05, "end": 2423.51, "word": " first.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2423.67, "end": 2423.81, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2423.99, "end": 2424.41, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2424.41, "end": 2424.57, "word": " been", 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right? But I was looking, you know, I was looking at the 90s,", "avg_logprob": -0.09710864388497076, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2523.73, "end": 2524.53, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.88818359375 }, { "start": 2524.53, "end": 2524.65, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2524.65, "end": 2525.03, "word": " move", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2525.03, "end": 2526.25, "word": " for", "probability": 0.98486328125 }, { "start": 2526.25, "end": 2526.37, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2526.37, "end": 2526.57, "word": " S", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 2526.57, "end": 2526.73, "word": "&P,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2527.29, "end": 2527.47, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2527.97, "end": 2528.37, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2528.37, "end": 2528.51, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2528.51, "end": 2528.65, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2528.65, "end": 2528.93, "word": " looking,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2529.03, "end": 2529.11, "word": " you", "probability": 0.97119140625 }, { "start": 2529.11, "end": 2529.11, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2529.17, "end": 2529.17, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 2529.17, "end": 2529.29, "word": " was", "probability": 0.97509765625 }, { "start": 2529.29, "end": 2529.45, "word": " looking", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2529.45, "end": 2529.63, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2529.63, "end": 2529.75, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2529.75, "end": 2530.29, "word": " 90s,", "probability": 0.994384765625 } ] }, { "start": 2530.39, "end": 2535.41, "text": "and I've, I've, I've done this before. And you have to remember that that fractals don't really", "avg_logprob": -0.09710864388497076, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2530.39, "end": 2530.45, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2530.45, "end": 2530.69, "word": " I've,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2530.69, "end": 2531.27, "word": " I've,", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2531.27, "end": 2531.71, "word": " I've", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2531.71, "end": 2531.95, "word": " done", "probability": 0.75048828125 }, { "start": 2531.95, "end": 2532.11, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2532.11, "end": 2532.43, "word": " before.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2532.61, "end": 2532.71, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2532.71, "end": 2532.97, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2532.97, "end": 2533.13, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2533.13, "end": 2533.19, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2533.19, "end": 2533.43, "word": " remember", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2533.43, "end": 2533.65, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2533.65, "end": 2533.85, "word": " that", "probability": 0.5439453125 }, { "start": 2533.85, "end": 2534.49, "word": " fractals", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2534.49, "end": 2535.01, "word": " don't", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2535.01, "end": 2535.41, "word": " really", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2535.41, "end": 2539.91, "text": "often play out. They tend not to, especially when you're talking about like sort of the down,", "avg_logprob": -0.09710864388497076, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2535.41, "end": 2535.89, "word": " often", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2535.89, "end": 2536.29, "word": " play", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2536.29, "end": 2536.63, "word": " out.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2536.77, "end": 2537.17, "word": " They", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2537.17, "end": 2537.45, "word": " tend", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2537.45, "end": 2537.71, "word": " not", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2537.71, "end": 2537.93, "word": " to,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2538.13, "end": 2538.51, "word": " especially", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2538.51, "end": 2538.71, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2538.71, "end": 2538.81, "word": " you're", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2538.81, "end": 2538.97, "word": " talking", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2538.97, "end": 2539.15, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2539.15, "end": 2539.31, "word": " like", "probability": 0.87548828125 }, { "start": 2539.31, "end": 2539.45, "word": " sort", "probability": 0.78466796875 }, { "start": 2539.45, "end": 2539.53, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2539.53, "end": 2539.63, "word": " the", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2539.63, "end": 2539.91, "word": " down,", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2540.09, "end": 2547.41, "text": "the down phase of it. 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It's the same thing. 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Now, I'm not a big believer, honestly, in these fractals.", "avg_logprob": -0.11272321258272444, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2693.09, "end": 2693.59, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2693.59, "end": 2693.87, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2693.87, "end": 2694.03, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2694.03, "end": 2694.19, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2694.19, "end": 2694.49, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2694.49, "end": 2694.77, "word": " finally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2694.77, "end": 2695.13, "word": " hits.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2695.49, "end": 2695.99, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2696.13, "end": 2696.35, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2696.35, "end": 2696.49, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2696.49, "end": 2696.61, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2696.61, "end": 2696.75, "word": " big", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2696.75, "end": 2697.17, "word": " believer,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2697.61, "end": 2697.95, "word": " honestly,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2698.15, "end": 2698.23, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2698.23, "end": 2698.35, "word": " these", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2698.35, "end": 2698.79, "word": " fractals.", "probability": 0.998291015625 } ] }, { "start": 2698.95, "end": 2704.45, "text": "I've done this long enough to know that anytime you overlay a fractal onto a chart like this,", "avg_logprob": -0.11272321258272444, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2698.95, "end": 2699.13, "word": " I've", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2699.13, "end": 2699.29, "word": " done", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2699.29, "end": 2699.51, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2699.51, "end": 2699.79, "word": " long", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2699.79, "end": 2700.05, "word": " enough", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2700.05, "end": 2700.25, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2700.25, "end": 2700.55, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2700.55, "end": 2701.25, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2701.25, "end": 2701.67, "word": " anytime", "probability": 0.83740234375 }, { "start": 2701.67, "end": 2702.09, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2702.09, "end": 2702.53, "word": " overlay", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2702.53, "end": 2702.71, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2702.71, "end": 2703.23, "word": " fractal", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2703.23, "end": 2703.45, "word": " onto", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2703.45, "end": 2703.61, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2703.61, "end": 2703.85, "word": " chart", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2703.85, "end": 2704.05, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2704.05, "end": 2704.45, "word": " this,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2704.65, "end": 2711.13, "text": "it's not going to play out, right? It's just not. And I'm only showing this, not to say that this", "avg_logprob": -0.11272321258272444, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2704.65, "end": 2705.39, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2705.39, "end": 2705.55, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2705.55, "end": 2705.69, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9150390625 }, { "start": 2705.69, "end": 2705.77, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2705.77, "end": 2705.95, "word": " play", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2705.95, "end": 2706.23, "word": " out,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2706.51, "end": 2706.65, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2706.77, "end": 2706.95, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.995361328125 }, { "start": 2706.95, "end": 2707.09, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2707.09, "end": 2707.41, "word": " not.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2707.81, "end": 2708.31, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2708.31, "end": 2709.15, "word": " I'm", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 2709.15, "end": 2709.37, "word": " only", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2709.37, "end": 2709.73, "word": " showing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2709.73, "end": 2710.13, "word": " this,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2710.25, "end": 2710.53, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2710.53, "end": 2710.67, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2710.67, "end": 2710.85, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2710.85, "end": 2710.99, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2710.99, "end": 2711.13, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2711.13, "end": 2717.91, "text": "is what's going to happen. But just to say, these are things that could stop a Bitcoin bull market,", "avg_logprob": -0.07496093854308128, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2711.13, "end": 2711.23, "word": " is", "probability": 0.298828125 }, { "start": 2711.23, "end": 2711.41, "word": " what's", "probability": 0.995361328125 }, { "start": 2711.41, "end": 2711.51, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9052734375 }, { "start": 2711.51, "end": 2711.59, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2711.59, "end": 2711.91, "word": " happen.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2712.21, "end": 2712.69, "word": " But", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 2712.69, "end": 2712.93, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2712.93, "end": 2713.09, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2713.09, "end": 2713.37, "word": " say,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2713.55, "end": 2714.33, "word": " these", "probability": 0.6611328125 }, { "start": 2714.33, "end": 2715.23, "word": " are", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2715.23, "end": 2715.63, "word": " things", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2715.63, "end": 2716.05, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2716.05, "end": 2716.33, "word": " could", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2716.33, "end": 2716.79, "word": " stop", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2716.79, "end": 2717.03, "word": " a", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 2717.03, "end": 2717.35, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9873046875 }, { "start": 2717.35, "end": 2717.55, "word": " bull", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 2717.55, "end": 2717.91, "word": " market,", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 2718.05, "end": 2724.71, "text": "right? 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Markets are still at all time highs. But oftentimes,", "avg_logprob": -0.1445312468541993, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2847.91, "end": 2848.19, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2848.19, "end": 2848.31, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2848.31, "end": 2848.43, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2848.43, "end": 2848.81, "word": " introduce", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2848.81, "end": 2849.29, "word": " uncertainty.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2849.75, "end": 2850.13, "word": " Markets", "probability": 0.998291015625 }, { "start": 2850.13, "end": 2850.25, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2850.25, "end": 2850.39, "word": " still", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2850.39, "end": 2850.55, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2850.55, "end": 2850.65, "word": " all", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2850.65, "end": 2850.81, "word": " time", "probability": 0.8017578125 }, { "start": 2850.81, "end": 2851.27, "word": " highs.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2851.59, "end": 2852.09, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2852.09, "end": 2853.61, "word": " oftentimes,", "probability": 0.99755859375 } ] }, { "start": 2854.51, "end": 2859.51, "text": "you know, uncertainty is not great for markets. If you look at the economic policy uncertainty index,", "avg_logprob": -0.1445312468541993, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2854.51, "end": 2854.57, "word": " you", "probability": 0.92724609375 }, { "start": 2854.57, "end": 2854.67, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2854.75, "end": 2855.11, "word": " uncertainty", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2855.11, "end": 2855.43, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2855.43, "end": 2855.61, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2855.61, "end": 2855.87, "word": " great", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2855.87, "end": 2856.07, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2856.07, "end": 2856.49, "word": " markets.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2856.53, "end": 2857.03, "word": " If", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2857.03, "end": 2857.09, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2857.09, "end": 2857.21, "word": " look", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2857.21, "end": 2857.31, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2857.31, "end": 2857.43, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2857.43, "end": 2857.81, "word": " economic", "probability": 0.61474609375 }, { "start": 2857.81, "end": 2858.45, "word": " policy", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2858.45, "end": 2859.01, "word": " uncertainty", "probability": 0.984375 }, { "start": 2859.01, "end": 2859.51, "word": " index,", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 2859.79, "end": 2869.57, "text": "that's also been more elevated than it normally is. 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"text": "because you know i thought the most likely outcome for bitcoin going into this was that the rate hike", "avg_logprob": -0.08959652238254305, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2916.35, "end": 2916.69, "word": " because", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2916.69, "end": 2917.63, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2917.63, "end": 2917.81, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2917.81, "end": 2918.71, "word": " i", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2918.71, "end": 2919.03, "word": " thought", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2919.03, "end": 2919.27, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2919.27, "end": 2919.45, "word": " most", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2919.45, "end": 2919.73, "word": " likely", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2919.73, "end": 2920.09, "word": " outcome", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2920.09, "end": 2920.35, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2920.35, 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Again, the S&P 500, on average, after, sorry, I need to look at the right thing.", "avg_logprob": -0.09316406479726234, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2949.89, "end": 2950.27, "word": " on", "probability": 0.93408203125 }, { "start": 2950.27, "end": 2950.91, "word": " average.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2951.77, "end": 2952.13, "word": " Again,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2952.67, "end": 2952.79, "word": " the", "probability": 0.73193359375 }, { "start": 2952.79, "end": 2952.89, "word": " S", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2952.89, "end": 2953.05, "word": "&P", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2953.05, "end": 2953.41, "word": " 500,", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 2953.99, "end": 2954.57, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2954.57, "end": 2955.09, "word": " average,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2956.27, "end": 2957.13, "word": " after,", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2957.53, "end": 2958.17, "word": " sorry,", "probability": 0.468017578125 }, { "start": 2958.21, "end": 2958.25, "word": " I", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 2958.25, "end": 2958.35, "word": " need", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2958.35, "end": 2958.41, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2958.41, "end": 2958.51, "word": " look", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2958.51, "end": 2958.59, "word": " at", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2958.59, "end": 2958.65, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 2958.65, "end": 2958.79, "word": " right", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 2958.79, "end": 2959.09, "word": " thing.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 2959.61, "end": 2972.52, "text": "After a rate hike, on average, the S&P goes down. So I thought, you know, I was all, I thought,", "avg_logprob": -0.09316406479726234, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 2959.61, "end": 2959.97, "word": " After", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2959.97, "end": 2960.13, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2960.13, "end": 2960.33, "word": " rate", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2960.33, "end": 2960.61, "word": " hike,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2964.06, "end": 2964.68, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2964.68, "end": 2964.98, "word": " average,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2965.1, "end": 2965.16, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2965.16, "end": 2965.36, "word": " S", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2965.36, "end": 2965.54, "word": "&P", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2965.54, "end": 2966.24, "word": " goes", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 2966.24, "end": 2966.46, "word": " down.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2968.76, "end": 2969.12, "word": " So", "probability": 0.9892578125 }, { "start": 2969.12, "end": 2969.28, "word": " I", "probability": 0.92724609375 }, { "start": 2969.28, "end": 2969.6, "word": " thought,", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 2969.84, "end": 2970.02, "word": " you", "probability": 0.88720703125 }, { "start": 2970.02, "end": 2970.2, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2970.72, "end": 2971.7, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 2971.7, "end": 2971.88, "word": " was", "probability": 0.94580078125 }, { "start": 2971.88, "end": 2972.14, "word": " all,", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 2972.28, "end": 2972.36, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 2972.36, "end": 2972.52, "word": " thought,", "probability": 0.9794921875 } ] }, { "start": 2972.62, "end": 2977.48, "text": "oh, I'm very smart. 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Maybe that's when people get their finally long awaited alt season. And then", "avg_logprob": -0.07793898620302715, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3037.66, "end": 3037.82, "word": " of", "probability": 0.55908203125 }, { "start": 3037.82, "end": 3037.9, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3037.9, "end": 3038.02, "word": " bull", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3038.02, "end": 3038.38, "word": " market.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3038.58, "end": 3038.92, "word": " Maybe", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3038.92, "end": 3039.16, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3039.16, "end": 3039.28, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3039.28, "end": 3039.5, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3039.5, "end": 3039.68, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3039.68, "end": 3039.82, "word": " their", "probability": 0.86767578125 }, { "start": 3039.82, "end": 3040.2, "word": " finally", "probability": 0.9833984375 }, { "start": 3040.2, "end": 3040.96, "word": " long", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 3040.96, "end": 3041.36, "word": " awaited", "probability": 0.81494140625 }, { "start": 3041.36, "end": 3041.52, "word": " alt", "probability": 0.92333984375 }, { "start": 3041.52, "end": 3041.88, "word": " season.", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 3042.66, "end": 3043.1, "word": " And", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3043.1, "end": 3043.44, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3043.44, "end": 3048.44, "text": "we raise rates again, and then it kills the market. Right? That, that was kind of what I was", "avg_logprob": -0.07793898620302715, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3043.44, "end": 3044.04, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3044.04, "end": 3044.26, "word": " raise", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3044.26, "end": 3044.46, "word": " rates", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3044.46, "end": 3044.76, "word": " again,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3044.92, "end": 3045.02, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3045.02, "end": 3045.22, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3045.22, "end": 3045.34, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3045.34, "end": 3045.58, "word": " kills", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3045.58, "end": 3045.72, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3045.72, "end": 3046.02, "word": " market.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3046.26, "end": 3046.64, "word": " Right?", "probability": 0.77587890625 }, { "start": 3046.78, "end": 3046.94, "word": " That,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3047.14, "end": 3047.54, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3047.54, "end": 3047.66, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3047.66, "end": 3047.8, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3047.8, "end": 3047.9, "word": " of", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3047.9, "end": 3048.02, "word": " what", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3048.02, "end": 3048.14, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3048.14, "end": 3048.44, "word": " was", "probability": 0.9990234375 } ] }, { "start": 3048.44, "end": 3055.04, "text": "somewhat basing it on. But then the market basically ripped me a new one, when we got the", "avg_logprob": -0.07793898620302715, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3048.44, "end": 3049.04, "word": " somewhat", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3049.04, "end": 3049.5, "word": " basing", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3049.5, "end": 3049.62, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3049.62, "end": 3049.82, "word": " on.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3050.24, "end": 3050.68, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3050.68, "end": 3051.0, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3051.0, "end": 3051.24, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3051.24, "end": 3051.6, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3051.6, "end": 3052.92, "word": " basically", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 3052.92, "end": 3053.14, "word": " ripped", "probability": 0.947265625 }, { "start": 3053.14, "end": 3053.28, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3053.28, "end": 3053.38, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3053.38, "end": 3053.48, "word": " new", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3053.48, "end": 3053.76, "word": " one,", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 3053.92, "end": 3054.34, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3054.34, "end": 3054.68, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3054.68, "end": 3054.88, "word": " got", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3054.88, "end": 3055.04, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3055.04, "end": 3060.96, "text": "rate hike. And instead of the S&P dropping, it went up instead. Right? So that that's kind of", "avg_logprob": -0.07793898620302715, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3055.04, "end": 3055.24, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3055.24, "end": 3055.52, "word": " hike.", "probability": 0.86328125 }, { "start": 3055.7, "end": 3056.14, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3056.14, "end": 3056.36, "word": " instead", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3056.36, "end": 3056.48, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3056.48, "end": 3056.58, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3056.58, "end": 3056.8, "word": " S", "probability": 0.98291015625 }, { "start": 3056.8, "end": 3056.94, "word": "&P", "probability": 0.9794921875 }, { "start": 3056.94, "end": 3057.4, "word": " dropping,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3057.7, "end": 3058.26, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3058.26, "end": 3058.44, "word": " went", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3058.44, "end": 3058.62, "word": " up", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3058.62, "end": 3058.92, "word": " instead.", "probability": 0.57763671875 }, { "start": 3059.32, "end": 3059.76, "word": " Right?", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3059.84, "end": 3059.96, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3059.96, "end": 3060.12, "word": " that", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3060.12, "end": 3060.66, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.6787109375 }, { "start": 3060.66, "end": 3060.82, "word": " kind", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3060.82, "end": 3060.96, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3060.96, "end": 3067.16, "text": "like where I got a little bit off base. And then that's why I don't want to be overly deterministic", "avg_logprob": -0.07793898620302715, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3060.96, "end": 3061.16, "word": " like", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 3061.16, "end": 3061.54, "word": " where", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3061.54, "end": 3062.48, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3062.48, "end": 3062.8, "word": " got", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3062.8, "end": 3063.18, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3063.18, "end": 3063.44, "word": " little", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3063.44, "end": 3063.72, "word": " bit", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3063.72, "end": 3064.06, "word": " off", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3064.06, "end": 3064.48, "word": " base.", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3064.48, "end": 3064.88, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3064.88, "end": 3065.06, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3065.06, "end": 3065.34, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3065.34, "end": 3065.52, "word": " why", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3065.52, "end": 3065.84, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3065.84, "end": 3066.1, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3066.1, "end": 3066.2, "word": " want", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3066.2, "end": 3066.28, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3066.28, "end": 3066.36, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3066.36, "end": 3066.64, "word": " overly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3066.64, "end": 3067.16, "word": " deterministic", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3067.16, "end": 3073.6, "text": "here. So what I would say is this, right? We're coming up on a pretty important time for Bitcoin", "avg_logprob": -0.05046875139077504, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3067.16, "end": 3067.38, "word": " here.", "probability": 0.72314453125 }, { "start": 3067.56, "end": 3067.8, "word": " So", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 3067.8, "end": 3068.36, "word": " what", "probability": 0.95263671875 }, { "start": 3068.36, "end": 3068.48, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3068.48, "end": 3068.6, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3068.6, "end": 3068.74, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3068.74, "end": 3068.9, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3068.9, "end": 3069.2, "word": " this,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3069.5, "end": 3069.62, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.974609375 }, { "start": 3070.32, "end": 3070.88, "word": " We're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3070.88, "end": 3071.08, "word": " coming", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3071.08, "end": 3071.28, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3071.28, "end": 3071.38, "word": " on", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3071.38, "end": 3071.46, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3071.46, "end": 3071.74, "word": " pretty", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3071.74, "end": 3072.22, "word": " important", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3072.22, "end": 3072.74, "word": " time", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3072.74, "end": 3073.28, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3073.28, "end": 3073.6, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99755859375 } ] }, { "start": 3073.6, "end": 3083.44, "text": "right now. And I would say this, if Bitcoin closes below these levels, then I would then", "avg_logprob": -0.05046875139077504, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3073.6, "end": 3073.84, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3073.84, "end": 3074.12, "word": " now.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3074.56, "end": 3075.12, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3075.12, "end": 3076.46, "word": " I", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3076.46, "end": 3076.62, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3076.62, "end": 3076.78, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3076.78, "end": 3077.12, "word": " this,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3077.34, "end": 3078.48, "word": " if", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3078.48, "end": 3078.84, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3078.84, "end": 3079.32, "word": " closes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3079.32, "end": 3080.04, "word": " below", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3080.04, "end": 3080.28, "word": " these", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3080.28, "end": 3080.66, "word": " levels,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3081.2, "end": 3081.9, "word": " then", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3081.9, "end": 3083.04, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3083.04, "end": 3083.26, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3083.26, "end": 3083.44, "word": " then", "probability": 0.99658203125 } ] }, { "start": 3083.44, "end": 3093.32, "text": "more so defer towards the fake out move in 2015 or 2020. I would, right? That's what I would defer", "avg_logprob": -0.05046875139077504, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3083.44, "end": 3083.92, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3083.92, "end": 3084.2, "word": " so", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3084.2, "end": 3084.62, "word": " defer", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3084.62, "end": 3085.98, "word": " towards", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3085.98, "end": 3086.56, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3086.56, "end": 3086.86, "word": " fake", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3086.86, "end": 3087.04, "word": " out", "probability": 0.84033203125 }, { "start": 3087.04, "end": 3087.3, "word": " move", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3087.3, "end": 3087.44, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3087.44, "end": 3088.08, "word": " 2015", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3088.08, "end": 3090.24, "word": " or", "probability": 0.89453125 }, { "start": 3090.24, "end": 3090.64, "word": " 2020.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3091.56, "end": 3092.12, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3092.12, "end": 3092.32, "word": " would,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3092.58, "end": 3092.66, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3092.76, "end": 3092.88, "word": " That's", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3092.88, "end": 3092.96, "word": " what", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3092.96, "end": 3093.04, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3093.04, "end": 3093.14, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 3093.14, "end": 3093.32, "word": " defer", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3093.32, "end": 3098.64, "text": "to. Because again, I'm not saying it's a pandemic. What I'm saying is that when you have a move", "avg_logprob": -0.07629145263713233, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3093.32, "end": 3093.52, "word": " to.", "probability": 0.96484375 }, { "start": 3093.7, "end": 3093.82, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.9921875 }, { "start": 3093.82, "end": 3094.2, "word": " again,", "probability": 0.92626953125 }, { "start": 3094.48, "end": 3095.24, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3095.24, "end": 3095.4, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3095.4, "end": 3095.72, "word": " saying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3095.72, "end": 3095.96, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3095.96, "end": 3096.02, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3096.02, "end": 3096.46, "word": " pandemic.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3096.66, "end": 3096.78, "word": " What", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3096.78, "end": 3096.92, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3096.92, "end": 3097.16, "word": " saying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3097.16, "end": 3097.34, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3097.34, "end": 3097.48, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 3097.48, "end": 3097.72, "word": " when", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3097.72, "end": 3097.9, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3097.9, "end": 3098.16, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3098.16, "end": 3098.3, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3098.3, "end": 3098.64, "word": " move", "probability": 0.99755859375 } ] }, { "start": 3098.64, "end": 3106.1, "text": "where you convince everyone that the bull market is back on, like in 2020, and like in 2015,", "avg_logprob": -0.07629145263713233, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3098.64, "end": 3099.28, "word": " where", "probability": 0.83740234375 }, { "start": 3099.28, "end": 3099.48, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3099.48, "end": 3100.1, "word": " convince", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3100.1, "end": 3100.9, "word": " everyone", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3100.9, "end": 3101.58, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3101.58, "end": 3101.7, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3101.7, "end": 3101.86, "word": " bull", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3101.86, "end": 3102.16, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3102.16, "end": 3102.34, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3102.34, "end": 3102.54, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3102.54, "end": 3102.86, "word": " on,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3103.06, "end": 3103.62, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3103.62, "end": 3103.78, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3103.78, "end": 3104.26, "word": " 2020,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3104.26, "end": 3105.16, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3105.16, "end": 3105.42, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3105.42, "end": 3105.54, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3105.54, "end": 3106.1, "word": " 2015,", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3106.7, "end": 3114.48, "text": "if you give back that, then it unwinds immediately. It does not take six months to unwind. It just", "avg_logprob": -0.07629145263713233, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3106.7, "end": 3107.22, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3107.22, "end": 3107.4, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3107.4, "end": 3107.78, "word": " give", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3107.78, "end": 3108.32, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3108.32, "end": 3109.06, "word": " that,", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3109.44, "end": 3109.86, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3109.86, "end": 3109.98, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3109.98, "end": 3110.56, "word": " unwinds", "probability": 0.9988606770833334 }, { "start": 3110.56, "end": 3111.02, "word": " immediately.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3111.02, "end": 3111.48, "word": " It", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3111.48, "end": 3111.6, "word": " does", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3111.6, "end": 3111.84, "word": " not", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3111.84, "end": 3112.36, "word": " take", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3112.36, "end": 3113.22, "word": " six", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3113.22, "end": 3113.48, "word": " months", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3113.48, "end": 3113.64, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3113.64, "end": 3114.04, "word": " unwind.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3114.2, "end": 3114.36, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3114.36, "end": 3114.48, "word": " just", "probability": 0.87744140625 } ] }, { "start": 3114.48, "end": 3120.22, "text": "unwinds overnight, practically, because then everyone who was bullish now realizes the bear", "avg_logprob": -0.07629145263713233, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3114.48, "end": 3115.36, "word": " unwinds", "probability": 0.6833292643229166 }, { "start": 3115.36, "end": 3116.32, "word": " overnight,", "probability": 0.927734375 }, { "start": 3116.94, "end": 3117.28, "word": " practically,", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 3117.46, "end": 3117.64, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3117.64, "end": 3117.82, "word": " then", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3117.82, "end": 3118.12, "word": " everyone", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3118.12, "end": 3118.32, "word": " who", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3118.32, "end": 3118.5, "word": " was", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3118.5, "end": 3118.98, "word": " bullish", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3118.98, "end": 3119.5, "word": " now", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 3119.5, "end": 3119.92, "word": " realizes", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 3119.92, "end": 3120.1, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 3120.1, "end": 3120.22, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.9970703125 } ] }, { "start": 3120.22, "end": 3131.26, "text": "market's not over. Okay? That's why I'm saying respect the closes. Respect the closes. As long", "avg_logprob": -0.05679687492549419, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3120.22, "end": 3120.56, "word": " market's", "probability": 0.80126953125 }, { "start": 3120.56, "end": 3120.7, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3120.7, "end": 3120.94, "word": " over.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3121.44, "end": 3121.92, "word": " Okay?", "probability": 0.80908203125 }, { "start": 3124.44, "end": 3124.96, "word": " That's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3124.96, "end": 3125.1, "word": " why", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3125.1, "end": 3125.28, "word": " I'm", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3125.28, "end": 3125.56, "word": " saying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3125.56, "end": 3126.64, "word": " respect", "probability": 0.8046875 }, { "start": 3126.64, "end": 3127.66, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3127.66, "end": 3128.04, "word": " closes.", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3128.8, "end": 3129.32, "word": " Respect", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 3129.32, "end": 3129.56, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3129.56, "end": 3129.88, "word": " closes.", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3130.58, "end": 3131.1, "word": " As", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3131.1, "end": 3131.26, "word": " long", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3131.26, "end": 3136.7, "text": "as we're closing up here, the bulls can just simply say, look, things are fine. But if you", "avg_logprob": -0.05679687492549419, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3131.26, "end": 3131.44, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3131.44, "end": 3131.56, "word": " we're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3131.56, "end": 3131.84, "word": " closing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3131.84, "end": 3132.06, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3132.06, "end": 3132.34, "word": " here,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3132.54, "end": 3133.6, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3133.6, "end": 3133.9, "word": " bulls", "probability": 0.991455078125 }, { "start": 3133.9, "end": 3134.08, "word": " can", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3134.08, "end": 3134.26, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3134.26, "end": 3134.56, "word": " simply", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3134.56, "end": 3134.82, "word": " say,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3134.94, "end": 3135.02, "word": " look,", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 3135.12, "end": 3135.28, "word": " things", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3135.28, "end": 3135.4, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3135.4, "end": 3135.68, "word": " fine.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3135.86, "end": 3136.38, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3136.38, "end": 3136.52, "word": " if", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3136.52, "end": 3136.7, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3136.7, "end": 3143.0, "text": "close below, that's where it becomes a problem. And that's where you would want to lean into the", "avg_logprob": -0.05679687492549419, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3136.7, "end": 3137.34, "word": " close", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3137.34, "end": 3137.8, "word": " below,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3138.46, "end": 3139.32, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3139.32, "end": 3139.44, "word": " where", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3139.44, "end": 3139.54, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3139.54, "end": 3139.8, "word": " becomes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3139.8, "end": 3139.94, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3139.94, "end": 3140.3, "word": " problem.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3140.6, "end": 3141.12, "word": " And", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3141.12, "end": 3141.52, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3141.52, "end": 3141.72, "word": " where", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3141.72, "end": 3141.96, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3141.96, "end": 3142.08, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3142.08, "end": 3142.2, "word": " want", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 3142.2, "end": 3142.3, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3142.3, "end": 3142.58, "word": " lean", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3142.58, "end": 3142.86, "word": " into", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3142.86, "end": 3143.0, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3143.0, "end": 3151.28, "text": "bear narrative a lot more. Now, we're going to look at another thing. The daily timeframe for", "avg_logprob": -0.05679687492549419, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3143.0, "end": 3143.18, "word": " bear", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 3143.18, "end": 3143.52, "word": " narrative", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3143.52, "end": 3143.78, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3143.78, "end": 3143.94, "word": " lot", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3143.94, "end": 3144.16, "word": " more.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3145.78, "end": 3146.3, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3146.5, "end": 3147.62, "word": " we're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3147.62, "end": 3147.7, "word": " going", "probability": 0.91845703125 }, { "start": 3147.7, "end": 3147.72, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3147.72, "end": 3147.84, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3147.84, "end": 3147.94, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3147.94, "end": 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every video since, that", "avg_logprob": -0.1469983545769202, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3465.53, "end": 3465.87, "word": " I", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3465.87, "end": 3465.97, "word": " mean,", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 3466.03, "end": 3466.31, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3466.31, "end": 3466.73, "word": " clearly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3466.73, "end": 3467.05, "word": " said", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3467.05, "end": 3467.29, "word": " that,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3467.39, "end": 3467.41, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3467.41, "end": 3467.59, "word": " I've", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3467.59, "end": 3467.77, "word": " said", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3467.77, "end": 3467.89, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3467.89, "end": 3468.03, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3468.03, "end": 3468.43, "word": " practically", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3468.43, "end": 3468.71, "word": " every", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3468.71, "end": 3469.01, "word": " video", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3469.01, "end": 3469.33, "word": " since,", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 3469.67, "end": 3469.95, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3469.95, "end": 3475.65, "text": "my strategy for Bitcoin is to just simply DCA throughout the second half of the midterm", "avg_logprob": -0.1469983545769202, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3469.95, "end": 3470.29, "word": " my", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3470.29, "end": 3470.83, "word": " strategy", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3470.83, "end": 3471.13, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3471.13, "end": 3471.51, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3471.51, "end": 3472.27, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3472.27, "end": 3472.43, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3472.43, "end": 3472.61, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3472.61, "end": 3473.01, "word": " simply", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3473.01, "end": 3473.81, "word": " DCA", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 3473.81, "end": 3474.37, "word": " throughout", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3474.37, "end": 3474.59, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3474.59, "end": 3474.85, "word": " second", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3474.85, "end": 3475.15, "word": " half", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3475.15, "end": 3475.31, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3475.31, "end": 3475.35, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3475.35, "end": 3475.65, "word": " midterm", "probability": 0.99853515625 } ] }, { "start": 3475.65, "end": 3476.27, "text": "year, right?", "avg_logprob": -0.1469983545769202, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3475.65, "end": 3475.91, "word": " year,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3476.13, "end": 3476.27, "word": " right?", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3476.29, "end": 3477.23, "text": "That's what I've normally done.", "avg_logprob": -0.1469983545769202, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3476.29, "end": 3476.51, "word": " That's", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 3476.51, "end": 3476.61, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3476.61, "end": 3476.77, "word": " I've", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3476.77, "end": 3477.03, "word": " normally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3477.03, "end": 3477.23, "word": " done.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3477.37, "end": 3478.17, "text": "That's what I did in 2018.", "avg_logprob": -0.1469983545769202, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3477.37, "end": 3477.43, "word": " That's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3477.43, "end": 3477.51, "word": " what", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3477.51, "end": 3477.59, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3477.59, "end": 3477.67, "word": " did", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3477.67, "end": 3477.79, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3477.79, "end": 3478.17, "word": " 2018.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3478.17, "end": 3479.35, "text": "That's what I did in 2022.", "avg_logprob": -0.1469983545769202, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3478.17, "end": 3478.51, "word": " That's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3478.51, "end": 3478.61, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3478.61, "end": 3478.69, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3478.69, "end": 3478.79, "word": " did", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3478.79, "end": 3478.91, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3478.91, "end": 3479.35, "word": " 2022.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3479.65, "end": 3481.13, "text": "That's what I said I'm going to do in 2026.", "avg_logprob": -0.1469983545769202, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3479.65, "end": 3479.99, "word": " That's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3479.99, "end": 3480.07, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3480.07, "end": 3480.13, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3480.13, "end": 3480.21, "word": " said", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 3480.21, "end": 3480.37, "word": " I'm", "probability": 0.995849609375 }, { "start": 3480.37, "end": 3480.41, "word": " going", "probability": 0.93701171875 }, { "start": 3480.41, "end": 3480.45, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3480.45, "end": 3480.53, "word": " do", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3480.53, "end": 3480.61, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3480.61, "end": 3481.13, "word": " 2026.", "probability": 0.998046875 } ] }, { "start": 3484.38, "end": 3485.96, "text": "Because I know how hard it is.", "avg_logprob": -0.1469983545769202, 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3685.79, "end": 3686.43, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.97509765625 }, { "start": 3686.43, "end": 3686.83, "word": " can't", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3686.83, "end": 3686.95, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3686.95, "end": 3687.23, "word": " hang", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3687.23, "end": 3687.57, "word": " out", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3687.57, "end": 3687.93, "word": " down", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 3687.93, "end": 3688.35, "word": " here", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3688.35, "end": 3690.75, "text": "without people starting to lose faith, okay?", "avg_logprob": -0.19724999666213988, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3688.35, "end": 3688.75, "word": " without", "probability": 0.97509765625 }, { "start": 3688.75, "end": 3689.11, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3689.11, "end": 3689.43, "word": " starting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3689.43, "end": 3689.55, "word": 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0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3734.33, "end": 3735.17, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3735.17, "end": 3741.83, "text": "really right now bitcoin looks stronger at these levels than it did back in may because if you look", "avg_logprob": -0.058045505987186184, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3735.17, "end": 3735.45, "word": " really", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3735.45, "end": 3735.69, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3735.69, "end": 3735.95, "word": " now", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3735.95, "end": 3736.39, "word": " bitcoin", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3736.39, "end": 3736.85, "word": " looks", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3736.85, "end": 3737.47, "word": " stronger", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3737.47, "end": 3738.45, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3738.45, "end": 3738.71, "word": " these", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3738.71, "end": 3739.07, "word": " levels", 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3743.97, "end": 3744.63, "word": " uh", "probability": 0.97412109375 }, { "start": 3744.63, "end": 3745.03, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3745.03, "end": 3745.09, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3745.09, "end": 3745.43, "word": " several", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3745.43, "end": 3745.77, "word": " percent", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3745.77, "end": 3745.97, "word": " above", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3745.97, "end": 3746.15, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3746.15, "end": 3751.61, "text": "whereas back in may it was kind of just right on the line after after that drop like basically", "avg_logprob": -0.04228940241686676, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3746.15, "end": 3746.41, "word": " whereas", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3746.41, "end": 3746.67, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3746.67, "end": 3746.83, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { 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"probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3750.65, "end": 3750.85, "word": " drop", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3750.85, "end": 3751.07, "word": " like", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 3751.07, "end": 3751.61, "word": " basically", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3751.61, "end": 3763.6, "text": "saying that this drop here this wick down is kind of similar to this one so decision time is coming", "avg_logprob": -0.04228940241686676, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3751.61, "end": 3751.99, "word": " saying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3751.99, "end": 3752.27, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3752.27, "end": 3753.01, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3753.01, "end": 3753.43, "word": " drop", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3753.43, "end": 3753.87, "word": " here", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3753.87, "end": 3754.53, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3754.53, "end": 3754.79, "word": " wick", "probability": 0.97314453125 }, { "start": 3754.79, "end": 3755.03, "word": " down", "probability": 0.9716796875 }, { "start": 3755.03, "end": 3755.25, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3755.25, "end": 3755.41, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3755.41, "end": 3755.49, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3755.49, "end": 3755.75, "word": " similar", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3755.75, "end": 3755.89, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3755.89, "end": 3756.05, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3756.05, "end": 3756.23, "word": " one", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3758.54, "end": 3759.6, "word": " so", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3759.6, "end": 3761.5, "word": " decision", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3761.5, "end": 3761.96, "word": " time", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3761.96, "end": 3762.88, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3762.88, "end": 3763.6, "word": " coming", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3764.5, "end": 3771.1, "text": "very very soon one more thing i know this video is is kind of short right now so let me make it", "avg_logprob": -0.04228940241686676, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3764.5, "end": 3764.94, "word": " very", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3764.94, "end": 3765.16, "word": " very", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3765.16, "end": 3765.44, "word": " soon", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3765.44, "end": 3767.26, "word": " one", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 3767.26, "end": 3767.42, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3767.42, "end": 3767.68, "word": " thing", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3767.68, "end": 3768.1, "word": " i", "probability": 0.98828125 }, { "start": 3768.1, "end": 3768.22, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3768.22, "end": 3768.4, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3768.4, "end": 3768.66, "word": " video", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3768.66, "end": 3769.16, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3769.16, "end": 3769.42, "word": " is", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 3769.42, "end": 3769.6, "word": " kind", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3769.6, "end": 3769.7, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3769.7, "end": 3769.96, "word": " short", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3769.96, "end": 3770.16, "word": " right", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3770.16, "end": 3770.36, "word": " now", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3770.36, "end": 3770.6, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3770.6, "end": 3770.7, "word": " let", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3770.7, "end": 3770.8, "word": " me", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3770.8, "end": 3771.0, "word": " make", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3771.0, "end": 3771.1, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3771.1, "end": 3779.0, "text": "even longer um the bitcoin silver valuation and the bitcoin gold valuation this is tricky", "avg_logprob": -0.0535849301565078, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3771.1, "end": 3771.24, "word": " even", "probability": 0.921875 }, { "start": 3771.24, "end": 3771.6, "word": " longer", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3771.6, "end": 3772.48, "word": " um", "probability": 0.321533203125 }, { "start": 3772.48, "end": 3773.54, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3773.54, "end": 3773.88, "word": " bitcoin", "probability": 0.8701171875 }, { "start": 3773.88, "end": 3774.52, "word": " silver", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3774.52, "end": 3775.0, "word": " valuation", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 3775.0, "end": 3776.02, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3776.02, "end": 3776.12, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3776.12, "end": 3776.36, "word": " bitcoin", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3776.36, "end": 3776.62, "word": " gold", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3776.62, "end": 3777.06, "word": " valuation", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3777.06, "end": 3778.58, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 3778.58, "end": 3778.72, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3778.72, "end": 3779.0, "word": " tricky", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3779.76, "end": 3787.56, "text": "the bitcoin silver valuation to me i can't i can't sit here on the bitcoin silver valuation and call", "avg_logprob": -0.0535849301565078, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3779.76, "end": 3780.4, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3780.4, "end": 3780.74, "word": " bitcoin", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3780.74, "end": 3781.18, "word": " silver", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3781.18, "end": 3781.72, "word": " valuation", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { 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"probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3786.96, "end": 3787.28, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3787.28, "end": 3787.56, "word": " call", "probability": 0.9970703125 } ] }, { "start": 3787.56, "end": 3793.7, "text": "for for much lower than i already went because i was already under the impression that just sweeping", "avg_logprob": -0.0535849301565078, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3787.56, "end": 3787.8, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3787.8, "end": 3788.04, "word": " for", "probability": 0.9775390625 }, { "start": 3788.04, "end": 3788.18, "word": " much", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3788.18, "end": 3788.44, "word": " lower", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3788.44, "end": 3788.56, "word": " than", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3788.56, "end": 3788.68, "word": " i", "probability": 0.76708984375 }, { "start": 3788.68, "end": 3788.78, "word": " already", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 3788.78, "end": 3789.02, "word": " went", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3789.02, "end": 3789.58, "word": " because", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3789.58, "end": 3789.84, "word": " i", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3789.84, "end": 3790.02, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3790.02, "end": 3790.32, "word": " already", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3790.32, "end": 3790.52, "word": " under", "probability": 0.92822265625 }, { "start": 3790.52, "end": 3790.64, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3790.64, "end": 3791.02, "word": " impression", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 3791.02, "end": 3791.88, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3791.88, "end": 3793.36, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3793.36, "end": 3793.7, "word": " sweeping", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3793.7, "end": 3801.86, "text": "the low would be good enough. So against silver, I would say Bitcoin probably has bottomed for a", "avg_logprob": -0.04382324385611961, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3793.7, "end": 3793.84, "word": " the", "probability": 0.947265625 }, { "start": 3793.84, "end": 3794.02, "word": " low", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 3794.02, "end": 3794.18, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3794.18, "end": 3794.26, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3794.26, "end": 3794.42, "word": " good", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3794.42, "end": 3794.72, "word": " enough.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3795.52, "end": 3795.66, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 3795.66, "end": 3797.0, "word": " against", "probability": 0.94091796875 }, { "start": 3797.0, "end": 3797.82, "word": " silver,", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 3797.82, "end": 3799.68, "word": " I", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3799.68, "end": 3799.84, "word": " would", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3799.84, "end": 3800.0, "word": " say", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3800.0, "end": 3800.34, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.990234375 }, { "start": 3800.34, "end": 3800.72, "word": " probably", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3800.72, "end": 3800.94, "word": " has", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3800.94, "end": 3801.36, "word": " bottomed", "probability": 0.996826171875 }, { "start": 3801.36, "end": 3801.6, "word": " for", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3801.6, "end": 3801.86, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3801.86, "end": 3811.3, "text": "long time. But the problem is against gold. Against gold, I don't know that it has. I really", "avg_logprob": -0.04382324385611961, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3801.86, "end": 3801.98, "word": " long", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3801.98, "end": 3802.3, "word": " time.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3803.34, "end": 3803.86, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3803.86, "end": 3804.0, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3804.0, "end": 3804.54, "word": " problem", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3804.54, "end": 3805.76, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3805.76, "end": 3806.1, "word": " against", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3806.1, "end": 3806.66, "word": " gold.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3807.48, "end": 3808.0, "word": " Against", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3808.0, "end": 3808.54, "word": " gold,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3808.54, "end": 3809.0, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3809.0, "end": 3809.48, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3809.48, "end": 3809.76, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3809.76, "end": 3809.96, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3809.96, "end": 3810.08, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3810.08, "end": 3810.54, "word": " has.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3810.76, "end": 3811.04, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3811.04, "end": 3811.3, "word": " really", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3811.3, "end": 3816.04, "text": "don't know because I, you know, when you have these ranges like this, normally what happens", "avg_logprob": -0.04382324385611961, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3811.3, "end": 3811.62, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3811.62, "end": 3811.86, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3811.86, "end": 3812.14, "word": " because", "probability": 0.5625 }, { "start": 3812.14, "end": 3812.56, "word": " I,", "probability": 0.646484375 }, { "start": 3812.8, "end": 3813.08, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3813.08, "end": 3813.12, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3813.22, "end": 3813.3, "word": " when", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3813.3, "end": 3813.42, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3813.42, "end": 3813.66, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3813.66, "end": 3813.9, "word": " these", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3813.9, "end": 3814.26, "word": " ranges", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3814.26, "end": 3814.6, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3814.6, "end": 3814.98, "word": " this,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3815.2, "end": 3815.48, "word": " normally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3815.48, "end": 3815.64, "word": " what", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 3815.64, "end": 3816.04, "word": " happens", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3816.04, "end": 3820.84, "text": "is you eventually test them. Even though you don't want to, you eventually test them. It's no", "avg_logprob": -0.04382324385611961, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3816.04, "end": 3816.38, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3816.38, "end": 3816.52, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3816.52, "end": 3817.0, "word": " eventually", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3817.0, "end": 3817.38, "word": " test", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3817.38, "end": 3817.68, "word": " them.", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3817.94, "end": 3818.08, "word": " Even", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3818.08, "end": 3818.22, "word": " though", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3818.22, "end": 3818.36, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3818.36, "end": 3818.56, "word": " don't", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3818.56, "end": 3818.72, "word": " want", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3818.72, "end": 3818.96, "word": " to,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3819.22, "end": 3819.5, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3819.5, "end": 3819.88, "word": " eventually", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3819.88, "end": 3820.18, "word": " test", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3820.18, "end": 3820.36, "word": " them.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3820.44, "end": 3820.6, "word": " It's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3820.6, "end": 3820.84, "word": " no", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3820.84, "end": 3827.48, "text": "different than the ETH Bitcoin chart, the ETH market cap divided by the Bitcoin market cap", "avg_logprob": -0.07650619087455508, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3820.84, "end": 3821.3, "word": " different", "probability": 0.97900390625 }, { "start": 3821.3, "end": 3822.06, "word": " than", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3822.06, "end": 3822.6, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3822.6, "end": 3822.96, "word": " ETH", "probability": 0.96533203125 }, { "start": 3822.96, "end": 3823.42, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.982421875 }, { "start": 3823.42, "end": 3823.84, "word": " chart,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3824.2, "end": 3824.56, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3824.56, "end": 3824.8, "word": " ETH", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3824.8, "end": 3825.16, "word": " market", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 3825.16, "end": 3825.54, "word": " cap", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3825.54, "end": 3826.18, "word": " divided", "probability": 0.98193359375 }, { "start": 3826.18, "end": 3826.44, "word": " by", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3826.44, "end": 3826.58, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3826.58, "end": 3826.92, "word": " Bitcoin", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3826.92, "end": 3827.24, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3827.24, "end": 3827.48, "word": " cap", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3827.48, "end": 3831.32, "text": "chart. I spent years telling people that this thing was heading back down to the floor.", "avg_logprob": -0.07650619087455508, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3827.48, "end": 3827.72, "word": " chart.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3827.92, "end": 3828.28, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3828.28, "end": 3828.58, "word": " spent", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3828.58, "end": 3829.04, "word": " years", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3829.04, "end": 3829.34, "word": " telling", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3829.34, "end": 3829.66, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3829.66, "end": 3829.82, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3829.82, "end": 3830.0, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3830.0, "end": 3830.12, "word": " thing", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3830.12, "end": 3830.28, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3830.28, "end": 3830.46, "word": " heading", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3830.46, "end": 3830.66, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3830.66, "end": 3830.86, "word": " down", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3830.86, "end": 3830.98, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 3830.98, "end": 3831.06, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3831.06, "end": 3831.32, "word": " floor.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 3831.64, "end": 3836.68, "text": "And it did eventually, right? It did eventually. It took a long time. And eventually it did.", "avg_logprob": -0.07650619087455508, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3831.64, "end": 3832.04, "word": " And", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 3832.04, "end": 3832.18, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3832.18, "end": 3832.38, "word": " did", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3832.38, "end": 3832.88, "word": " eventually,", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3833.56, "end": 3833.72, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 3833.9, "end": 3833.9, "word": " It", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3833.9, "end": 3834.06, "word": " did", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 3834.06, "end": 3834.36, "word": " eventually.", "probability": 0.98193359375 }, { "start": 3834.48, "end": 3834.52, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3834.52, "end": 3834.66, "word": " took", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3834.66, "end": 3834.78, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3834.78, "end": 3834.92, "word": " long", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3834.92, "end": 3835.34, "word": " time.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3835.62, "end": 3836.02, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3836.02, "end": 3836.34, "word": " eventually", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3836.34, "end": 3836.52, "word": " it", "probability": 0.90966796875 }, { "start": 3836.52, "end": 3836.68, "word": " did.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3836.88, "end": 3842.66, "text": "Same thing with Solana. I spent years telling people that this thing was heading back down", "avg_logprob": -0.07650619087455508, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3836.88, "end": 3837.28, "word": " Same", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3837.28, "end": 3837.48, "word": " thing", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3837.48, "end": 3837.68, "word": " with", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3837.68, "end": 3838.12, "word": " Solana.", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 3838.48, "end": 3838.88, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3838.88, "end": 3839.4, "word": " spent", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3839.4, "end": 3839.96, "word": " years", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3839.96, "end": 3840.86, "word": " telling", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3840.86, "end": 3841.22, "word": " people", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3841.22, "end": 3841.68, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3841.68, "end": 3841.86, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3841.86, "end": 3842.0, "word": " thing", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3842.0, "end": 3842.14, "word": " was", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3842.14, "end": 3842.28, "word": " heading", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3842.28, "end": 3842.48, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3842.48, "end": 3842.66, "word": " down", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3842.66, "end": 3847.08, "text": "to the floor. Guess what? It hasn't yet. And guess what? I will continue to spend years", "avg_logprob": -0.07650619087455508, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3842.66, "end": 3842.8, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3842.8, "end": 3842.84, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3842.84, "end": 3843.0, "word": " floor.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3843.16, "end": 3843.3, "word": " Guess", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 3843.3, "end": 3843.52, "word": " what?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3843.68, "end": 3843.82, "word": " It", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3843.82, "end": 3844.14, "word": " hasn't", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3844.14, "end": 3844.36, "word": " yet.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3844.88, "end": 3845.28, "word": " And", "probability": 0.8388671875 }, { "start": 3845.28, "end": 3845.42, "word": " guess", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3845.42, "end": 3845.62, "word": " what?", "probability": 1.0 }, { 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right", "avg_logprob": -0.07350852348926393, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3888.78, "end": 3889.08, "word": " answer", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3889.08, "end": 3889.32, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3889.32, "end": 3889.54, "word": " it", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3889.54, "end": 3890.88, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3890.88, "end": 3891.5, "word": " 1974", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 3891.5, "end": 3892.6, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 3892.6, "end": 3892.8, "word": " probably", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3892.8, "end": 3893.2, "word": " exactly", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3893.2, "end": 3893.48, "word": " what", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3893.48, "end": 3893.58, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 3893.58, "end": 3893.72, "word": " thought", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { 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head back up.", "avg_logprob": -0.2777453176329069, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3934.79, "end": 3935.49, "word": " and", "probability": 0.6962890625 }, { "start": 3935.49, "end": 3935.85, "word": " gold", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 3935.85, "end": 3936.19, "word": " starts", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3936.19, "end": 3936.33, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3936.33, "end": 3936.47, "word": " head", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3936.47, "end": 3936.69, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 3936.69, "end": 3937.01, "word": " up.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 3937.23, "end": 3938.91, "text": "But remember, in 1974,", "avg_logprob": -0.2777453176329069, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 3937.23, "end": 3937.65, "word": " But", "probability": 0.98876953125 }, { "start": 3937.65, "end": 3937.97, "word": " remember,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 3938.15, "end": 3938.19, "word": " in", 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4123.25, "text": "back down and then you start back up just like it did with silver it's just that with silver", "avg_logprob": -0.06342169742905691, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 4118.83, "end": 4119.03, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4119.03, "end": 4119.33, "word": " down", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4119.33, "end": 4119.79, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4119.79, "end": 4120.17, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4120.17, "end": 4120.71, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4120.71, "end": 4120.95, "word": " start", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 4120.95, "end": 4121.11, "word": " back", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4121.11, "end": 4121.37, "word": " up", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4121.37, "end": 4121.57, "word": " just", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 4121.57, "end": 4121.71, "word": " like", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { 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That's a lot, right? And I hope that... 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