Bitcoin Extreme Uncertainty
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_JhpNaRPl8
Language: en | ASR: large-v3-turbo @ 0a363e9161cbc7ed1431c9597a8ceaf0c4f78fcf

[00:00:00.720 --> 00:00:06.180] Speaker 1: hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptiverse today we're going to talk
[00:00:06.180 --> 00:00:12.920] Speaker 1: about bitcoin and we're going to discuss the extreme uncertainty that
[00:00:12.920 --> 00:00:17.780] Speaker 1: sits with the market right now if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the
[00:00:17.780 --> 00:00:22.020] Speaker 1: channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptiverse
[00:00:22.020 --> 00:00:28.660] Speaker 1: premium at into the cryptiverse .com as a reminder we do have the first investing
[00:00:28.660 --> 00:00:33.340] Speaker 1: through the cycles conference coming up in just over a month. So make sure you guys get
[00:00:33.340 --> 00:00:38.320] Speaker 1: your ticket prices will be going up on November 1st link is in the description below or the
[00:00:38.320 --> 00:00:45.300] Speaker 1: pinned comment. Now, right now, you know, I've been sort of tracking Bitcoin for
[00:00:45.300 --> 00:00:51.920] Speaker 1: a long time, right? And publicly, I've been talking about it with with you guys since
[00:00:51.920 --> 00:00:58.920] Speaker 1: 2019. When I started the YouTube channel, and there are certainly times where uncertainty
[00:00:58.920 --> 00:01:05.640] Speaker 1: gets to some pretty high levels and and it feels like it's there's forces
[00:01:05.640 --> 00:01:11.920] Speaker 1: pulling Bitcoin in either direction. And in those cases, both the bulls and the bears have
[00:01:11.920 --> 00:01:17.940] Speaker 1: a point. And today, I think we find ourselves in a similar situation.
[00:01:18.200 --> 00:01:25.180] Speaker 1: But I would argue that uncertainty now is higher for Bitcoin than it has been in
[00:01:25.180 --> 00:01:32.180] Speaker 1: the past just because of the forces that are simultaneously pulling on Bitcoin. In
[00:01:32.180 --> 00:01:38.280] Speaker 1: one camp, you have the bulls and the bulls have a great argument
[00:01:38.280 --> 00:01:40.580] Speaker 1: for Bitcoin right now.
[00:01:41.860 --> 00:01:47.740] Speaker 1: The bears are in another camp, but they have some things they can point two as well when it
[00:01:47.740 --> 00:01:53.800] Speaker 1: comes to investing we have to all recognize that no one actually knows what's going to
[00:01:53.800 --> 00:02:00.800] Speaker 1: happen on on crypto youtube and crypto twitter there's this idea that you know people are
[00:02:00.800 --> 00:02:05.280] Speaker 1: going to know for sure what's going to happen and the people that speak the most loudly
[00:02:05.280 --> 00:02:11.820] Speaker 1: that speak the the most confidently those are often those people are often given a large
[00:02:11.820 --> 00:02:16.580] Speaker 1: platform to sort of voice their their opinions. And no, I've fallen into that as well.
[00:02:16.900 --> 00:02:21.780] Speaker 1: Sometimes I get very deterministic about what I think is going to happen. And that has
[00:02:21.780 --> 00:02:28.620] Speaker 1: served me well, in some cases, and then in other cases, it has not. And so what I want to
[00:02:28.620 --> 00:02:34.460] Speaker 1: do is I want to go through what exactly is going on in the market. So if you're a bull, you
[00:02:34.460 --> 00:02:39.040] Speaker 1: could understand the bear, the bear case. And if you're a bear, you can understand the bull
[00:02:39.040 --> 00:02:45.780] Speaker 1: case. And what I think is happening right now is we are about at a decision point. I
[00:02:45.780 --> 00:02:50.320] Speaker 1: don't think we're going to sit here much longer in the low 80s. We're either going to go up
[00:02:50.320 --> 00:02:57.200] Speaker 1: and print a new local high above 87k really, really soon. Or it's going to be a fake
[00:02:57.200 --> 00:03:02.440] Speaker 1: breakout and then all the technical indicators break down. So let's go through so that you
[00:03:02.440 --> 00:03:09.260] Speaker 1: can understand where we are and why there is so much disagreement. Okay. The
[00:03:09.260 --> 00:03:14.820] Speaker 1: bulls, in this case, have a lot going for them. And they've had a lot going for them for a
[00:03:14.820 --> 00:03:20.600] Speaker 1: while. From a pure technical perspective, right? If you're just looking at technical
[00:03:20.600 --> 00:03:27.240] Speaker 1: analysis and, you know, the RSI, the MACD, there's a lot that they can point to. And one of
[00:03:27.240 --> 00:03:33.080] Speaker 1: the simplest things that they can point to is the fact that Bitcoin had a golden cross,
[00:03:33.460 --> 00:03:37.900] Speaker 1: right? It had a golden cross, had a correction after the golden cross, and it continued
[00:03:37.900 --> 00:03:42.860] Speaker 1: higher. And as it stands right now, it is still holding just above the 50 day moving
[00:03:42.860 --> 00:03:49.340] Speaker 1: average. Okay. So everything that Bitcoin has done since the breakout to to 87k
[00:03:49.340 --> 00:03:56.260] Speaker 1: could be construed as just a normal correction that is backtesting the prior high. And this
[00:03:56.260 --> 00:04:01.100] Speaker 1: would be fairly normal, right? Like you can't, if you're a bear, you can't look at that and
[00:04:01.100 --> 00:04:07.780] Speaker 1: say that that's necessarily bearish on its own. It is retesting a prior high. And
[00:04:07.780 --> 00:04:14.320] Speaker 1: what you'll notice is that when Bitcoin has previously broken down from sort of like a wick
[00:04:14.320 --> 00:04:21.240] Speaker 1: low, that formed a bottom that then yielded a new high. So as it stands
[00:04:21.240 --> 00:04:27.360] Speaker 1: right now, that is something that the bulls can point to and say, look,
[00:04:27.620 --> 00:04:34.320] Speaker 1: so what if we swept the low? Why can't we just do the same thing we did last time, right?
[00:04:34.480 --> 00:04:39.440] Speaker 1: Sweep the low, consolidate over the weekend, you know, potentially, and then head back up
[00:04:39.440 --> 00:04:46.220] Speaker 1: by Sunday night. Okay. Now, this is certainly a compelling case. Now, I've,
[00:04:46.400 --> 00:04:53.260] Speaker 1: you know, I'm at the point now where if Bitcoin were to break down, it might almost
[00:04:53.260 --> 00:04:57.860] Speaker 1: be one of those things where where you have to almost like be careful what you wish for,
[00:04:58.120 --> 00:05:04.420] Speaker 1: because obviously going into Q4 and really going in, I mean, in Q3,
[00:05:05.100 --> 00:05:11.680] Speaker 1: I said that I thought we were forming a low for Bitcoin at 57K. But
[00:05:11.680 --> 00:05:17.980] Speaker 1: what I was not expecting was I was not expecting the rally to take out the prior high. OK,
[00:05:18.340 --> 00:05:24.640] Speaker 1: and that kind of messed me up a little bit because it made sense for the low to occur. at
[00:05:24.640 --> 00:05:30.460] Speaker 1: around 57k. I mean, in 2018, we had a low at 5700. And we talked a lot about how the
[00:05:30.460 --> 00:05:36.820] Speaker 1: structure of the market is very similar in terms of like, you know, a February low in both
[00:05:36.820 --> 00:05:43.440] Speaker 1: cases, and then a lower high in May, and then a lower low in the summer. And then you get
[00:05:43.440 --> 00:05:49.100] Speaker 1: your your summer rally in q3. And then you get your typical q4 dump. And that was kind of
[00:05:49.100 --> 00:05:55.900] Speaker 1: what I said was the most likely the outcome and um obviously with bitcoin putting in a
[00:05:55.900 --> 00:05:59.560] Speaker 1: higher high that has called things into question and has made me a little bit less
[00:05:59.560 --> 00:06:05.620] Speaker 1: deterministic so i've you know i really want to understand what the bull case is and so one
[00:06:05.620 --> 00:06:09.760] Speaker 1: of the things you can look towards is you can say look this is a normal stair -stepping
[00:06:09.760 --> 00:06:15.120] Speaker 1: pattern after you know after you form a low when you look at the
[00:06:16.480 --> 00:06:21.800] Speaker 1: longer term moving averages, right? You could say, look, Bitcoin is now above the 50 -week
[00:06:21.800 --> 00:06:26.760] Speaker 1: moving average. And when you look at prior bear markets that started at the end of a post
[00:06:26.760 --> 00:06:32.180] Speaker 1: -halving year, once Bitcoin is above the 50 -week and staying above it, like it has been
[00:06:32.180 --> 00:06:37.180] Speaker 1: recently, normally it means the bear market's over, right? And you can see that happened
[00:06:37.180 --> 00:06:43.900] Speaker 1: many, many times. And from a RSI perspective, right, if you were to look at the relative
[00:06:43.900 --> 00:06:49.960] Speaker 1: strength index, you can see that, you know, it looks like Bitcoin here, technically
[00:06:49.960 --> 00:06:54.680] Speaker 1: speaking, has done what it does every bear market, right? And that's go down to these lows.
[00:06:54.960 --> 00:07:01.960] Speaker 1: And then it goes up and it kind of, you know, catches some people off guard. So there's a
[00:07:01.960 --> 00:07:08.160] Speaker 1: lot of indicators that the bulls can point to. And I think that that is what has one of the
[00:07:08.160 --> 00:07:12.900] Speaker 1: things that's been pulling Bitcoin higher is because there's a lot of people that are going
[00:07:12.900 --> 00:07:17.480] Speaker 1: to look at these indicators and just simply believe that history is going to repeat itself.
[00:07:18.340 --> 00:07:24.840] Speaker 1: And, and I've struggled with this because it goes against what normally happens
[00:07:24.840 --> 00:07:31.800] Speaker 1: in Bitcoin's, you know, cycle around around now, right? Normally around now, Bitcoin
[00:07:31.800 --> 00:07:38.520] Speaker 1: is dropping, or at least not spending a lot of time above a prior high, right
[00:07:38.520 --> 00:07:45.040] Speaker 1: so the bulls have a case and if you want to
[00:07:45.040 --> 00:07:51.160] Speaker 1: compare to 2019 which i think is a relevant comparison in fact i've been making that
[00:07:51.160 --> 00:07:57.360] Speaker 1: comparison for years that this entire move here is more like this move
[00:07:59.150 --> 00:08:05.250] Speaker 1: and for a long time a lot of people sort of went against that they're like no, this is not
[00:08:05.250 --> 00:08:11.230] Speaker 1: like 2019. But now, of course, it makes more sense for them to favor it because it more so
[00:08:11.230 --> 00:08:17.690] Speaker 1: aligns with their bias. And so what I was saying was that the 2019 post
[00:08:17.690 --> 00:08:24.270] Speaker 1: apathetic top downturn would align with the 2026 bear market.
[00:08:24.470 --> 00:08:31.470] Speaker 1: Now, what's interesting is if you overlay the 2019 bear market with where Bitcoin is
[00:08:31.470 --> 00:08:36.450] Speaker 1: now, you can see that the lows would have occurred at around the same time. But what's
[00:08:36.450 --> 00:08:42.810] Speaker 1: different is that in 2019, there was price -based capitulation where we reset
[00:08:42.810 --> 00:08:48.630] Speaker 1: a lot of the on -chain indicators, right? So if you're just looking at it like this, you
[00:08:48.630 --> 00:08:53.710] Speaker 1: could say, well, look, Bitcoin had about a nine -month bear market, but it also had a nine
[00:08:53.710 --> 00:08:59.850] Speaker 1: -month bear market after the 2019 apathetic top as well. So why is that not enough? And if
[00:08:59.850 --> 00:09:05.490] Speaker 1: you extend that out to the next peak, who's to say, right, that it can't just follow a
[00:09:05.490 --> 00:09:11.210] Speaker 1: weaker version of what we saw back then? Now, if you're a bear, you're just simply going to
[00:09:11.210 --> 00:09:16.810] Speaker 1: point out that the reason why we had such a euphoric rally back then was due to the
[00:09:16.810 --> 00:09:23.090] Speaker 1: monetary policy response from the pandemic. from right from the pandemic and
[00:09:23.090 --> 00:09:28.910] Speaker 1: if you're a bear you're going to say well hold on a second the reason why bitcoin was
[00:09:28.910 --> 00:09:33.870] Speaker 1: breaking out so much was because the fed was printing trillions of dollars and if you look
[00:09:33.870 --> 00:09:39.910] Speaker 1: at global net liquidity or sorry this is just total assets held by the federal reserve what
[00:09:39.910 --> 00:09:46.250] Speaker 1: you'll notice is that bitcoin didn't really start moving to those levels until after the
[00:09:46.250 --> 00:09:52.210] Speaker 1: balance sheet started to expand after the crisis. But right now, we're not really seeing
[00:09:52.210 --> 00:09:58.610] Speaker 1: the balance sheet expand. It's sort of in this phase here, pre -expansion. And last time,
[00:09:58.790 --> 00:10:03.970] Speaker 1: it required a crisis to get the balance sheet to really start expanding. And we don't know
[00:10:03.970 --> 00:10:10.850] Speaker 1: what would have happened back then had that not occurred okay so in in in one
[00:10:10.850 --> 00:10:17.770] Speaker 1: sense in one sense the bulls can simply say look we had a nine
[00:10:17.770 --> 00:10:23.370] Speaker 1: -month fair market like 2019 why does it need to reset the on -chain indicators if we don't
[00:10:23.370 --> 00:10:27.750] Speaker 1: go to the highs why do we have to go to the lows and what i mean by that is if you look at
[00:10:27.750 --> 00:10:33.010] Speaker 1: things like the mbrb z score the market value realized value z score or there's some other
[00:10:33.010 --> 00:10:38.310] Speaker 1: on -chain indicators as well historically this thing bottoms you know after it goes below
[00:10:38.310 --> 00:10:43.150] Speaker 1: zero now you could argue that the etfs have kind of messed with that in some ways but
[00:10:43.150 --> 00:10:48.910] Speaker 1: normally it bottoms below zero but it also normally tops well above where it did top
[00:10:48.910 --> 00:10:54.570] Speaker 1: previously in 2019 it also topped near where it did this cycle as well and we still went
[00:10:54.570 --> 00:11:00.650] Speaker 1: below zero if you're a bull you would probably look at the supply in profit or loss and
[00:11:00.650 --> 00:11:06.410] Speaker 1: just simply say that look after they cross historically the bull market is in effect
[00:11:06.410 --> 00:11:11.890] Speaker 1: although the bears could simply say look they crossed in 2022 and then they crossed again
[00:11:11.890 --> 00:11:16.990] Speaker 1: later on and in 2018 they crossed and then they crossed again in 2020 when we had a
[00:11:16.990 --> 00:11:21.090] Speaker 1: recession so that's kind of the elephant in the room as well as you know there's been a
[00:11:21.090 --> 00:11:25.370] Speaker 1: discussion about a recession for probably about four or five years now and it hasn't
[00:11:25.370 --> 00:11:31.930] Speaker 1: materialized and so in 2019 it was the recession that kind of killed
[00:11:31.930 --> 00:11:38.770] Speaker 1: things right because if you look at the 50 -week moving average um bitcoin also
[00:11:38.770 --> 00:11:42.930] Speaker 1: went below the 50 week moving average in that bear market and then got above it but then
[00:11:42.930 --> 00:11:48.830] Speaker 1: went back below it right so it's not like there's no precedent for this either when you
[00:11:48.830 --> 00:11:55.390] Speaker 1: compare it to the 2019 move so So the bulls have a case and it's because of that case
[00:11:55.390 --> 00:11:57.930] Speaker 1: that Bitcoin has been doing so well, right?
[00:12:00.900 --> 00:12:06.660] Speaker 1: Can't deny it, right? You can't deny it. The bears also have a point and I'll talk about,
[00:12:06.780 --> 00:12:09.120] Speaker 1: you know, how I'm thinking about it at the end. Like, I'm not just going to, you know, I'm
[00:12:09.120 --> 00:12:13.960] Speaker 1: not just here to sit here and point out everything possible, but I'm just trying to put the
[00:12:13.960 --> 00:12:18.040] Speaker 1: evidence in front of you so that you can understand what the other side is thinking and
[00:12:18.040 --> 00:12:23.080] Speaker 1: why, if you're a bull, you're probably wondering, like, why is Bitcoin not higher right
[00:12:23.080 --> 00:12:27.360] Speaker 1: now? Because normally, when Bitcoin breaks through the 50 week moving average, after a
[00:12:27.360 --> 00:12:32.560] Speaker 1: midterm year bear market, it explodes higher, right? I mean, it just simply explodes
[00:12:32.560 --> 00:12:36.880] Speaker 1: higher. And it doesn't sit there and wait around and go and back test the 50 week moving
[00:12:36.880 --> 00:12:40.760] Speaker 1: average, right? I mean, that's not something that normally happens. The only time that it's
[00:12:40.760 --> 00:12:46.660] Speaker 1: really struggled once passing the 50 week, arguably, is in 2019, where it begrudgingly went
[00:12:46.660 --> 00:12:53.040] Speaker 1: higher until the recession arrived so the bulls have a case now
[00:12:53.040 --> 00:12:59.700] Speaker 1: the bears could simply say look that's great right like that's great
[00:12:59.700 --> 00:13:06.440] Speaker 1: but what if you still have to have price -based capitulation like what if the
[00:13:06.440 --> 00:13:09.480] Speaker 1: the things like the mvrv z score
[00:13:11.280 --> 00:13:17.760] Speaker 1: do have to reset before we get another bull run and that's what's like
[00:13:17.760 --> 00:13:24.740] Speaker 1: causing this tug of war because on one hand the bulls are going to point out that we
[00:13:24.740 --> 00:13:27.640] Speaker 1: didn't go to extreme levels to the upside so why does it have to happen to the downside
[00:13:27.640 --> 00:13:34.280] Speaker 1: right the bulls are going to point that out but the bears could simply say look when the
[00:13:34.280 --> 00:13:39.100] Speaker 1: fed raised rates in the past right if you look at what bitcoin did after the first rate
[00:13:39.100 --> 00:13:45.680] Speaker 1: hike in march of 2022 and look at it what it did here in
[00:13:45.680 --> 00:13:52.220] Speaker 1: 2026 it popped up for a little bit and then fell off if you look at what it did in
[00:13:52.220 --> 00:13:59.220] Speaker 1: 2015 the low was already in but bitcoin did go down about 20 after the rate
[00:13:59.220 --> 00:14:06.120] Speaker 1: hike okay now if you average those out and look at 2026 this is
[00:14:06.120 --> 00:14:11.220] Speaker 1: the bear case right like the bear case is just simply that after the rate hike bitcoin pops
[00:14:11.220 --> 00:14:17.780] Speaker 1: up for a few weeks and then it and then it has that drop into q4 anyways right and and that
[00:14:17.780 --> 00:14:24.700] Speaker 1: would put you at a day about day 94 and we're currently on day 30 right so that'd be 64
[00:14:24.700 --> 00:14:29.980] Speaker 1: days from now so you're looking at at about mid to late december now mid to late December
[00:14:29.980 --> 00:14:36.000] Speaker 1: seems like a pretty long bear market, right? Because that's not your typical year -long
[00:14:36.000 --> 00:14:42.660] Speaker 1: bear market. And if you're looking at late December, that's closer to 60 weeks rather
[00:14:42.660 --> 00:14:49.600] Speaker 1: than 52 or 54. And if you look at the last two bear markets, the last one was about 54
[00:14:49.600 --> 00:14:56.560] Speaker 1: weeks, and the one before that was about 52 weeks. As it stands right now
[00:14:56.560 --> 00:15:03.500] Speaker 1: where the current low is, this bear market was about 38 weeks, which is more in
[00:15:03.500 --> 00:15:09.860] Speaker 1: line with what happened in 2019, where it was about 37 weeks. However, again, back then we
[00:15:09.860 --> 00:15:15.720] Speaker 1: had price based capitulation. Now, if you go further back, there are bear markets that are
[00:15:15.720 --> 00:15:21.660] Speaker 1: longer. For instance, the bear market in 2013 actually lasted about 59 weeks. So it's not
[00:15:21.660 --> 00:15:26.380] Speaker 1: like there's never, it's not like there's no prior bear markets for Bitcoin that have gone
[00:15:26.380 --> 00:15:33.200] Speaker 1: on longer than a year, a 59 -week bear market would actually put you in late November for
[00:15:33.200 --> 00:15:40.000] Speaker 1: a low if it were to take as long as it did in 2014. But the main difference between now and
[00:15:40.000 --> 00:15:46.900] Speaker 1: 2014 is that in 2014, Bitcoin was not above the 50 -week moving average, right? So
[00:15:46.900 --> 00:15:53.120] Speaker 1: I think, you know, when you look at all of this, I think the most relevant view
[00:15:53.120 --> 00:15:59.560] Speaker 1: is this 2019 view, because that's the only time where Bitcoin topped on
[00:15:59.560 --> 00:16:06.360] Speaker 1: apathy rather than euphoria. It's the only time we had that quantitative
[00:16:06.360 --> 00:16:11.300] Speaker 1: tightening came to an end and then Bitcoin topped just before QT ended and then went into
[00:16:11.300 --> 00:16:17.600] Speaker 1: this digestion phase, right? Same thing. It's the only time that Bitcoin topped in that way
[00:16:17.600 --> 00:16:24.400] Speaker 1: in the same year that Bitcoin had, that the Fed cut rates three times. 2019, there were
[00:16:24.400 --> 00:16:31.060] Speaker 1: three rate cuts. 2025, there were three rate cuts. But what's happening now is
[00:16:31.060 --> 00:16:37.260] Speaker 1: different than what happened in 2019. In 2019, Bitcoin was struggling
[00:16:37.260 --> 00:16:43.760] Speaker 1: to break out, but the Fed was cutting rates. They just weren't cutting rates fast enough.
[00:16:44.000 --> 00:16:48.800] Speaker 1: And then once they did cut rates fast enough, then Bitcoin really broke out. One way to
[00:16:48.800 --> 00:16:54.380] Speaker 1: sort of visualize this is to look at Bitcoin and divide it by interest rates. I know that's
[00:16:54.380 --> 00:17:00.540] Speaker 1: kind of a weird thing to do. But if you look at what Bitcoin was doing in 2019,
[00:17:00.540 --> 00:17:07.280] Speaker 1: through that digestion phase, it was basically in a channel. And then if you
[00:17:07.280 --> 00:17:12.100] Speaker 1: overlay interest rates, right, if you overlay interest rates, it was after interest rates
[00:17:12.100 --> 00:17:17.960] Speaker 1: fell to the floor that then bitcoin broke out you see that well now we're kind of in a
[00:17:17.960 --> 00:17:22.700] Speaker 1: similar channel right like there's this channel here where when you look at it bitcoin like
[00:17:22.700 --> 00:17:27.680] Speaker 1: this bitcoin is still you know it's still around where the may high was when you divide by
[00:17:27.680 --> 00:17:34.600] Speaker 1: interest rates and so the the point is that this time they're not lowering rates they're
[00:17:34.600 --> 00:17:39.820] Speaker 1: raising rates they're actually doing the opposite of what they did in 2019 and the reason
[00:17:39.820 --> 00:17:46.520] Speaker 1: is because of it is because of inflation coming back so there's issues
[00:17:46.520 --> 00:17:52.180] Speaker 1: today that we're having to deal with that we didn't have to deal with back in 2019 and 2020
[00:17:52.180 --> 00:17:59.180] Speaker 1: because this was when they were lowering rates this is
[00:17:59.180 --> 00:18:05.800] Speaker 1: raising rates and you can see back then we went back and forth between these levels for a
[00:18:05.800 --> 00:18:10.760] Speaker 1: long time before there was a decision, right? And that's, I think, what's making everyone
[00:18:10.760 --> 00:18:17.000] Speaker 1: so frustrated now is that the bulls have every reason to be bullish based on the technical
[00:18:17.000 --> 00:18:18.860] Speaker 1: indicators alone. They do.
[00:18:20.400 --> 00:18:27.180] Speaker 1: The bears have a point, but it's an uncomfortable point, right? It's a, are we going to go
[00:18:27.180 --> 00:18:33.880] Speaker 1: all macro bro on this rather than just listen to the chart, right? so i think there's
[00:18:33.880 --> 00:18:40.500] Speaker 1: there's competing forces and when you look at the roi of bitcoin after a rate hike in
[00:18:40.500 --> 00:18:47.220] Speaker 1: september of a midterm year you can see that the last two
[00:18:47.220 --> 00:18:53.180] Speaker 1: times there was a rate hike in september of a midterm year bitcoin was flat for like 40 to
[00:18:53.180 --> 00:19:00.060] Speaker 1: 50 days after that and then the drop occurred after about day 50
[00:19:00.060 --> 00:19:07.040] Speaker 1: and we're currently on day 30 right so in this case and by the way
[00:19:07.040 --> 00:19:11.400] Speaker 1: even if we were to follow what happened in 2022 that wouldn't even yield a new low for
[00:19:11.400 --> 00:19:17.960] Speaker 1: bitcoin it would actually be a higher low even if we had a 20 drop so there's there's
[00:19:17.960 --> 00:19:24.860] Speaker 1: there is a case on the bear side it's just simply that look after a rate hike bitcoin often
[00:19:24.860 --> 00:19:30.480] Speaker 1: rallies at least out of two examples we have and then following that the market then drops
[00:19:30.480 --> 00:19:34.420] Speaker 1: now because we don't have a lot of history for bitcoin it might be worthwhile to look at
[00:19:34.420 --> 00:19:40.160] Speaker 1: the s p because when you look at the s p you can see there's a lot more um uh examples
[00:19:40.160 --> 00:19:43.800] Speaker 1: we're going to go actually after after the first rate hike not just after a rate hike in
[00:19:43.800 --> 00:19:48.140] Speaker 1: september of a midterm year because it's kind of oddly specific so if you look at what what
[00:19:48.140 --> 00:19:54.500] Speaker 1: uh the the s p is doing right in september of 2026
[00:19:54.500 --> 00:19:59.720] Speaker 1: now look at december 2020 uh 2015 you can see it kind of held for a bit and then dropped
[00:19:59.720 --> 00:20:05.420] Speaker 1: and then if you look at march 2022 the s &p held for a bit and then had this bear market um
[00:20:05.420 --> 00:20:12.300] Speaker 1: if you compare it to 1955 you had a little bit of a drop kind of around now in the s
[00:20:12.300 --> 00:20:17.660] Speaker 1: &p and then it went up if you look at 1958 there was not much of a drop but there was
[00:20:17.660 --> 00:20:22.080] Speaker 1: initially and then we went up so again there's not not every case does it have to go down
[00:20:22.080 --> 00:20:28.820] Speaker 1: um continuing july of 1963 it was mostly just up 1967 it was
[00:20:28.820 --> 00:20:33.440] Speaker 1: up for about 50 days right which kind of aligns with what we saw with bitcoin and then
[00:20:33.440 --> 00:20:38.100] Speaker 1: there was a drop we're currently again we're currently on day about 30 or so so about 20
[00:20:38.100 --> 00:20:44.060] Speaker 1: more days would be around when that would occur 1968 it just dropped 1971
[00:20:44.060 --> 00:20:50.880] Speaker 1: we dropped held and then dropped further and then had a rally 1973 mostly just
[00:20:50.880 --> 00:20:56.020] Speaker 1: down into the bear market 77 was a bear market for a little bit uh 1980 kind of just
[00:20:56.020 --> 00:21:02.540] Speaker 1: chopped around for a year 1984 you can see it rallied for a bit and then dropped
[00:21:02.540 --> 00:21:09.400] Speaker 1: into the sort of days 80 90 etc and then had another rally um 87
[00:21:09.400 --> 00:21:15.760] Speaker 1: that's kind of a scary one right where it kind of holds and then has a massive drop uh 1994
[00:21:15.760 --> 00:21:22.640] Speaker 1: holds and then drops 97 drops initially and then
[00:21:22.640 --> 00:21:26.080] Speaker 1: goes up that's what i was thinking would happen i thought that the smp would just kind of
[00:21:26.080 --> 00:21:30.440] Speaker 1: have a drop right after the rate hike uh and then go up but instead it's kind of held on
[00:21:30.440 --> 00:21:35.880] Speaker 1: 1999 you can see it went up dropped and then had sort of one final rally before the dot
[00:21:35.880 --> 00:21:40.240] Speaker 1: -com boom or the bust and then you have june of 2004 where it dropped almost immediately.
[00:21:40.440 --> 00:21:46.400] Speaker 1: And if you average all of them, you can see that on average, the S &P drops following a
[00:21:46.400 --> 00:21:52.020] Speaker 1: rate hike. And it often bottoms around day like 45, and then kind of retest those lows
[00:21:52.020 --> 00:21:58.960] Speaker 1: around day 70. Which when you look at it like that, was the rationale that I had for saying
[00:21:58.960 --> 00:22:05.000] Speaker 1: that the most likely outcome would be that the S &P would drop after the rate hike. and
[00:22:05.000 --> 00:22:10.220] Speaker 1: that would allow for that low in Q4 to occur for Bitcoin. And then we would just kind of
[00:22:10.220 --> 00:22:14.700] Speaker 1: continue on like we normally do. It was more so just looking at what happens on average.
[00:22:15.140 --> 00:22:19.060] Speaker 1: And while there are other extremes that do happen, like there's extremes where you just
[00:22:19.060 --> 00:22:23.760] Speaker 1: have a two to three year bear market, there's extremes where we just go up. I have to base
[00:22:23.760 --> 00:22:29.280] Speaker 1: my decisions on, or at least what I communicate the most, is like what normally happens,
[00:22:29.440 --> 00:22:35.560] Speaker 1: right? On average, what normally happens. and so I do that and I'd say about 70 % of the
[00:22:35.560 --> 00:22:39.260] Speaker 1: time it works out and people are happy and then about 30 % of the time it doesn't and
[00:22:39.260 --> 00:22:43.820] Speaker 1: that's where people get upset but you have to remember that it's not like there's a a one
[00:22:43.820 --> 00:22:47.760] Speaker 1: size fits all for these things like sometimes the market goes up sometimes the market goes
[00:22:47.760 --> 00:22:51.700] Speaker 1: down so yes I'm saying it could go up or down but the point is what does it do on average
[00:22:51.700 --> 00:22:56.320] Speaker 1: after certain outcomes and those are the outcomes that I tend to focus a little bit more on
[00:22:56.320 --> 00:23:03.120] Speaker 1: right so the bears are going to say look from this
[00:23:03.120 --> 00:23:09.540] Speaker 1: perspective you could have argued why it would have happened okay now the
[00:23:09.540 --> 00:23:15.120] Speaker 1: bulls are have they don't have this yet but they could have it relatively soon and that is
[00:23:15.120 --> 00:23:21.060] Speaker 1: the roi after the low chart in midterm years because normally what happens is that bitcoin
[00:23:21.060 --> 00:23:27.820] Speaker 1: bottoms uh out of the last two times right it bottomed on day like 1432 and 1436, we're
[00:23:27.820 --> 00:23:34.720] Speaker 1: currently on day 1425. So we're only about 10 days away from where the last two cycles
[00:23:34.720 --> 00:23:40.380] Speaker 1: ended up bottoming, right? I mean, we're only about 10 days away. So right now, you could
[00:23:40.380 --> 00:23:46.500] Speaker 1: argue that this is on the bear side, but in not too much longer, this would be something
[00:23:46.500 --> 00:23:53.460] Speaker 1: that the bulls would point to as a bull case, right? That the low, if there
[00:23:53.460 --> 00:23:58.700] Speaker 1: was going to be a low it should occur really really soon and if it doesn't happen by the
[00:23:58.700 --> 00:23:59.260] Speaker 1: end of October
[00:24:00.520 --> 00:24:06.820] Speaker 1: then that would be another point for the bulls right now when you look at this chart when
[00:24:06.820 --> 00:24:11.920] Speaker 1: you look at this chart through a different lens right if you if you look at it through the
[00:24:11.920 --> 00:24:18.860] Speaker 1: 2019 lens for example the only way that that chart could still favor
[00:24:18.860 --> 00:24:19.440] Speaker 1: the bears
[00:24:20.800 --> 00:24:27.420] Speaker 1: and then it's still become a point for the bulls is if you have a
[00:24:27.420 --> 00:24:34.200] Speaker 1: pandemic -like crash. That's the only way, right? It's the only way. Because someone's got
[00:24:34.200 --> 00:24:41.100] Speaker 1: to be wrong if there's not a or a 2015 -like crash, right? And what I mean by
[00:24:41.100 --> 00:24:47.080] Speaker 1: that is, you know, Bitcoin is at a really critical level right now. And what I would argue
[00:24:47.080 --> 00:24:53.480] Speaker 1: is that if Bitcoin were to give up, 83k on the weekly timeframe after a week or two close,
[00:24:53.740 --> 00:25:00.720] Speaker 1: then a lot of people will then completely question this entire breakout. And if they
[00:25:00.720 --> 00:25:07.460] Speaker 1: do, this whole thing probably doesn't unwind over many, many months. It probably unwinds
[00:25:07.460 --> 00:25:13.640] Speaker 1: like that, right? Because everyone that was relying on the technical indicators, the RSI,
[00:25:14.060 --> 00:25:19.560] Speaker 1: the MACD, the Golden Cross, all that stuff, all that stuff becomes pointless and you have a
[00:25:19.560 --> 00:25:25.240] Speaker 1: fake breakout to convince everyone and then it just goes down so if that were to happen if
[00:25:25.240 --> 00:25:31.840] Speaker 1: bitcoin were to give up this level then i think it unwinds almost immediately and then the
[00:25:31.840 --> 00:25:37.560] Speaker 1: 2019 view comes into play where you have a rally and then it stalls for a couple of weeks
[00:25:37.560 --> 00:25:43.420] Speaker 1: and then you see how it just collapsed down within like two to three weeks same thing in
[00:25:43.420 --> 00:25:50.340] Speaker 1: 2015 right after after it turned out that this was a false breakout
[00:25:50.340 --> 00:25:57.020] Speaker 1: in 2015 it all collapsed within about two weeks or so right you had you had your
[00:25:57.020 --> 00:25:57.580] Speaker 1: first
[00:25:59.140 --> 00:26:04.960] Speaker 1: when you had your first close back below right like well below it was only two more weeks
[00:26:04.960 --> 00:26:09.440] Speaker 1: after that when the actual low occurred and it was a sweep of the low that had happened
[00:26:09.440 --> 00:26:16.440] Speaker 1: previously so that's why i'm saying like if this is a fake breakout if this is a
[00:26:16.440 --> 00:26:22.560] Speaker 1: fake breakout then it unwinds almost immediately and if that were to happen then this chart
[00:26:22.560 --> 00:26:27.940] Speaker 1: ends up forming a low just what it always does and then but it doesn't necessarily need to
[00:26:27.940 --> 00:26:33.020] Speaker 1: be a much lower low so this is kind of where it's tricky because i feel like we're coming
[00:26:33.020 --> 00:26:38.420] Speaker 1: up to a point where we're going to have a decision be made and arguably it's gonna it could
[00:26:38.420 --> 00:26:43.240] Speaker 1: happen as early as this weekend right a lot of indicators say you know as early as this
[00:26:43.240 --> 00:26:50.200] Speaker 1: weekend we could start to see um the finality of this discussion that we've
[00:26:50.200 --> 00:26:55.880] Speaker 1: been kind of going back and forth on i'm of the opinion right and as i've said before that
[00:26:55.880 --> 00:27:02.740] Speaker 1: if you close below these levels like you know then that would start to make me more be in
[00:27:02.740 --> 00:27:08.780] Speaker 1: the camp that it's a fake out right and i i'm trying to like i'm giving myself that
[00:27:08.780 --> 00:27:11.420] Speaker 1: as a as sort of like a um
[00:27:13.240 --> 00:27:19.860] Speaker 1: invalidation for either view because i i don't want to be super deterministic
[00:27:19.860 --> 00:27:26.580] Speaker 1: about which way because i already wasn't expecting this move to begin with so
[00:27:26.580 --> 00:27:31.760] Speaker 1: it's only natural if you're not expecting a move to then go to the rooftop and then scream
[00:27:31.760 --> 00:27:36.740] Speaker 1: that you know it's the market that's wrong and not you but it's probably better for our
[00:27:36.740 --> 00:27:43.740] Speaker 1: egos to just say actually you know i was wrong not the market right and so if if it does
[00:27:43.740 --> 00:27:44.820] Speaker 1: accept back below
[00:27:46.140 --> 00:27:46.660] UNKNOWN: then
[00:27:46.660 --> 00:27:52.480] Speaker 1: then the cycle just plays out like it always has theoretically speaking now
[00:27:52.480 --> 00:27:59.340] Speaker 1: there's a few more things um that i want to talk about and and this is uh one of the bare
[00:27:59.340 --> 00:28:05.620] Speaker 1: cases is this is that the 10 year yield right the 10 year yield is is starting to struggle
[00:28:05.620 --> 00:28:12.360] Speaker 1: a little bit and you might say well isn't that a good thing it would make sense that it
[00:28:12.360 --> 00:28:19.340] Speaker 1: would be but the problem is if you were to overlay bitcoin onto the chart the major
[00:28:19.340 --> 00:28:25.180] Speaker 1: lows that occurred for bitcoin this year in sort of the february march time frame and in
[00:28:25.180 --> 00:28:32.140] Speaker 1: the june july time frame actually occurred while the 10 year was going down, not up.
[00:28:32.380 --> 00:28:39.000] Speaker 1: In fact, it was while the 10 year was going up that Bitcoin was generally doing okay. You
[00:28:39.000 --> 00:28:45.480] Speaker 1: see? Now, the reason this sort of poses a potential problem is that
[00:28:45.480 --> 00:28:52.340] Speaker 1: if the 10 year were to drop, then who's to say that it's not because of a growth scare,
[00:28:52.500 --> 00:28:57.840] Speaker 1: and therefore Bitcoin ends up kind of completing the bear market just as it always has so
[00:28:57.840 --> 00:29:03.580] Speaker 1: what i look at with that is again seasonality again it doesn't always work right i mean
[00:29:03.580 --> 00:29:08.820] Speaker 1: sometimes it works sometimes it does not but if you look at the 10 -year yield
[00:29:10.710 --> 00:29:17.630] Speaker 1: in 2026 and compare it to 2018 you can see that we're in we're potentially in a
[00:29:17.630 --> 00:29:22.510] Speaker 1: topping process for the 10 -year yield what normally happens at least if look at say 2018
[00:29:22.510 --> 00:29:28.750] Speaker 1: and also 2022 is that the 10 -year forms a high in october or november
[00:29:28.750 --> 00:29:33.730] Speaker 1: and then it forms if the high is in october it then forms a slightly lower high in november
[00:29:33.730 --> 00:29:37.810] Speaker 1: or it could be a slightly higher high around the midterms i don't know think about it like
[00:29:37.810 --> 00:29:44.310] Speaker 1: around the midterms but then after the midterms the 10 -year typically drops after the
[00:29:44.310 --> 00:29:51.030] Speaker 1: after the midterms what you'll notice for Bitcoin is that all prior lows
[00:29:51.030 --> 00:29:57.810] Speaker 1: that occurred actually happened after the midterms when the 10 -year yield was
[00:29:57.810 --> 00:30:02.750] Speaker 1: dropping in the last two midterm years, right? So if you look at the last cycle, you can
[00:30:02.750 --> 00:30:08.590] Speaker 1: see the final drop was right around the midterms. In 2018, the final drop occurred right
[00:30:08.590 --> 00:30:14.310] Speaker 1: after the midterms. And in 2014, the final drop occurred right after the midterms
[00:30:14.310 --> 00:30:20.970] Speaker 1: which aligns with when the 10 -year yield was going down in late 2018 and late 2022
[00:30:20.970 --> 00:30:26.830] Speaker 1: so if the 10 -year yield is destined to go down after the midterms then
[00:30:26.830 --> 00:30:33.170] Speaker 1: perhaps bitcoin plays out just like it always has right now
[00:30:34.840 --> 00:30:38.880] Speaker 1: i was trying to think like what would cause this to happen right like what would cause this
[00:30:38.880 --> 00:30:42.720] Speaker 1: to happen well they say the the uh the common saying is that the solution to high rates as
[00:30:42.720 --> 00:30:46.620] Speaker 1: high rates. If you have high rates long enough, it's going to affect a lot of companies.
[00:30:46.780 --> 00:30:50.780] Speaker 1: And I know the S &P is essentially just pinned to prior all time highs.
[00:30:52.040 --> 00:30:56.120] Speaker 1: The Nasdaq is starting to show a little bit of weakness, right?
[00:30:57.800 --> 00:31:03.120] Speaker 1: The Dow Jones has shown some strength recently, arguably because rates have gone down a
[00:31:03.120 --> 00:31:07.260] Speaker 1: little bit. But there are times where the Dow drops first, and then rebounds and then drops
[00:31:07.260 --> 00:31:13.260] Speaker 1: more. In fact, that's what happened in, you know, 2024. It's also what happened in uh 2018
[00:31:13.260 --> 00:31:19.380] Speaker 1: i believe actually no it dropped a little rallied in all -time highs and then sorry here it
[00:31:19.380 --> 00:31:24.500] Speaker 1: dropped rallied back up and then dropped more right so it's not like it can't drop again if
[00:31:24.500 --> 00:31:28.820] Speaker 1: you look at the russell the russell's just been getting hammered right i mean it's just
[00:31:28.820 --> 00:31:33.400] Speaker 1: been down week after week after week and you know i'm starting to wonder is this is this
[00:31:33.400 --> 00:31:39.760] Speaker 1: kind of the destination for the Russell. Because right now, we have a 10 -year yield
[00:31:39.760 --> 00:31:46.080] Speaker 1: that is down after a hot CPI report and a hot PPI report,
[00:31:46.820 --> 00:31:53.020] Speaker 1: okay? To me, that's the sign that yields are in the topping process. When you have a bad
[00:31:53.020 --> 00:31:58.140] Speaker 1: print and yields come down, is that not a sign that
[00:31:58.140 --> 00:32:04.100] Speaker 1: perhaps the market is starting to worry a little bit more about growth than inflation.
[00:32:05.820 --> 00:32:09.960] Speaker 1: What could cause the 10 -year to go back up? Because a lot of times, remember, as we said,
[00:32:10.400 --> 00:32:17.160] Speaker 1: a lot of times what happens is the 10 -year drops like it does now, but then it bounces
[00:32:17.160 --> 00:32:18.940] Speaker 1: back up again around the midterms.
[00:32:20.220 --> 00:32:27.140] Speaker 1: If you look at rate hike expectations, the odds of a rate hike now in October are 85%.
[00:32:29.680 --> 00:32:30.580] Speaker 1: 85%, right?
[00:32:32.320 --> 00:32:39.140] Speaker 1: Now, if they don't raise rates in October, because of some, hey, we're going into the
[00:32:39.140 --> 00:32:43.380] Speaker 1: midterms, let's not raise rates, let's wait until December. By the way, in 2018, they
[00:32:43.380 --> 00:32:48.840] Speaker 1: raised rates in September and December, and they skipped the meeting around the midterms.
[00:32:49.500 --> 00:32:55.800] Speaker 1: So the market thinks the Fed should raise rates. And, you know, there's a disagreement
[00:32:55.800 --> 00:32:59.740] Speaker 1: about whether this is a sort of what the market thinks the Fed should do or what they think
[00:32:59.740 --> 00:33:04.460] Speaker 1: the market or what they think the market or what the market thinks the Fed will do. But
[00:33:04.460 --> 00:33:09.300] Speaker 1: according to the market, there's an 85 % chance of a rate hike. Imagine if they don't raise
[00:33:09.300 --> 00:33:15.240] Speaker 1: rates. The 10 -year yield likely bounces back up to the highs because the market starts to
[00:33:15.240 --> 00:33:21.040] Speaker 1: get concerned as will the Fed actually do what they need to do. If the 10 -year yield were
[00:33:21.040 --> 00:33:27.760] Speaker 1: to bounce back up, then things like the Russell, which has been dropping, and
[00:33:27.760 --> 00:33:32.360] Speaker 1: the Dow Jones, those would start to come back down. I mean, the Russell's already been
[00:33:32.360 --> 00:33:35.920] Speaker 1: going down, but the Dow Jones would likely start to struggle again as well, because it
[00:33:35.920 --> 00:33:42.420] Speaker 1: would be, it more so benefits from rates coming down, whereas the S &P
[00:33:42.420 --> 00:33:49.220] Speaker 1: hasn't been nearly as affected by this, okay? So there's
[00:33:49.220 --> 00:33:55.460] Speaker 1: a strong consideration there that if the fed doesn't raise rates
[00:33:55.460 --> 00:34:02.040] Speaker 1: then perhaps this just bounces back up spooks everyone comes down after the midterms
[00:34:02.040 --> 00:34:07.520] Speaker 1: gives us a recession scare and then hopefully just kind of continues back up after that
[00:34:07.520 --> 00:34:13.200] Speaker 1: hopefully there's not actually an immediate recession right so that's the sort of the the
[00:34:13.200 --> 00:34:19.660] Speaker 1: the bear case would be that bitcoin ends up dropping after after that because what normally
[00:34:19.660 --> 00:34:26.580] Speaker 1: happens is that metals bottom around the time that yields top so
[00:34:26.580 --> 00:34:33.580] Speaker 1: if you look at gold for instance um if you look at gold you can see
[00:34:33.580 --> 00:34:39.740] Speaker 1: that in 2018 or sorry in 2022 you know it bottomed in the october to early november time
[00:34:39.740 --> 00:34:46.640] Speaker 1: frame when yields were topping And in 2018, gold bottomed in the August
[00:34:46.640 --> 00:34:52.780] Speaker 1: to October time frame, again, when yields were topping. So gold
[00:34:52.780 --> 00:34:59.740] Speaker 1: bottomed when yields topped, but Bitcoin bottomed when yields were going
[00:34:59.740 --> 00:35:06.720] Speaker 1: down. So that's the bear case. But here's the problem with all that. And this is why I say,
[00:35:06.940 --> 00:35:12.020] Speaker 1: you know, you almost have to be careful what you wish for, right? and i've struggled with
[00:35:12.020 --> 00:35:18.700] Speaker 1: this too is if we do break down and this is a fake out and it just
[00:35:18.700 --> 00:35:25.040] Speaker 1: completely fools all the bulls i have to ask myself is that really what i want at this
[00:35:25.040 --> 00:35:31.860] Speaker 1: point you know i mean it the problem with that is it break i mean all the indicators that
[00:35:31.860 --> 00:35:36.400] Speaker 1: have fired off that have fired off at the end of other bear markets would be completely
[00:35:36.400 --> 00:35:41.720] Speaker 1: null and void and part of it with Bitcoin is just believing that the same thing is going to
[00:35:41.720 --> 00:35:48.220] Speaker 1: happen that has happened is going to keep happening. And if that were to fail, I would
[00:35:48.220 --> 00:35:54.240] Speaker 1: actually be concerned that it would actually kill the market for years, not just a few
[00:35:54.240 --> 00:36:00.620] Speaker 1: months, but for years. And the reason why I say that is because imagine Bitcoin comes back
[00:36:00.620 --> 00:36:07.360] Speaker 1: down to 60k and then bounces back up, right? Everyone who
[00:36:07.360 --> 00:36:13.880] Speaker 1: bought up here who believed in all those indicators are probably going to be selling
[00:36:13.880 --> 00:36:20.820] Speaker 1: pressure now so who's to say that it couldn't just come back up and then drop and then we
[00:36:20.820 --> 00:36:27.660] Speaker 1: go down in 2027 that's not like my base case but it is a consideration to to be made
[00:36:27.660 --> 00:36:32.060] Speaker 1: and the only reason i bring it up and i've i've shown you this guy this chart a couple of
[00:36:32.060 --> 00:36:37.640] Speaker 1: times now uh it's the silver chart right it's the it's after the silver rally uh from 2011
[00:36:37.640 --> 00:36:44.600] Speaker 1: where you had to move up you came down you then had a big move up above that
[00:36:44.600 --> 00:36:50.400] Speaker 1: was a fake out you then came down so imagine it's like your february for bitcoin it's like
[00:36:50.400 --> 00:36:56.400] Speaker 1: your february low your july low and then your q4 low and then you go back up and it's like
[00:36:56.400 --> 00:37:02.220] Speaker 1: surely now we can break through and then it ends up being a low or high and then you break
[00:37:02.220 --> 00:37:06.380] Speaker 1: down and then every all the on -chain indicators finally reset right but then that that
[00:37:06.380 --> 00:37:11.200] Speaker 1: kills the market for years and i think the reason it kills the market for years is because
[00:37:11.200 --> 00:37:16.620] Speaker 1: if you have a fake out like that where everyone gets all bowled up calling for new highs
[00:37:16.620 --> 00:37:21.880] Speaker 1: and it fails then all those guys are going to be selling pressure when it comes back up
[00:37:23.260 --> 00:37:27.380] Speaker 1: because all the indicators they put their faith in now no longer work
[00:37:28.690 --> 00:37:34.950] Speaker 1: so that's why i'm saying it's like a a be careful what you wish for type thing right
[00:37:34.950 --> 00:37:41.950] Speaker 1: because if that's how it plays out if that's a fake out and it comes back down and we just
[00:37:41.950 --> 00:37:47.910] Speaker 1: and let's say we print a higher low and we go back up who's to say that the uh
[00:37:47.910 --> 00:37:54.850] Speaker 1: you know this long -awaited recession won't finally kick in think about it like this do
[00:37:54.850 --> 00:37:59.030] Speaker 1: you guys remember how a lot of people were waiting for alt season last cycle and it never
[00:37:59.030 --> 00:38:04.970] Speaker 1: happened and the reason it never happened is because when it would normally occur
[00:38:04.970 --> 00:38:11.570] Speaker 1: in q4 right of the post having year when it would normally
[00:38:11.570 --> 00:38:18.550] Speaker 1: occur the bear market for bitcoin started had the bear market not started we
[00:38:19.860 --> 00:38:23.280] Speaker 1: probably would have had an alt season because Bitcoin would have had a euphoric rally, you
[00:38:23.280 --> 00:38:28.500] Speaker 1: know, would have gone to 200k and there would have been that rotation. But instead, the
[00:38:28.500 --> 00:38:35.120] Speaker 1: Bitcoin bear market started. So it made it so that the higher risk
[00:38:35.120 --> 00:38:42.120] Speaker 1: assets like altcoins were then unable to catch a bid because the bear market had started.
[00:38:42.840 --> 00:38:49.460] Speaker 1: So the things that are the if you think about like a risk curve, right? Altcoins are way
[00:38:49.460 --> 00:38:53.760] Speaker 1: over here, right? So you have alts that are way up here, they're really high risk, right?
[00:38:53.880 --> 00:38:58.580] Speaker 1: And then below that, you've got Bitcoin. Okay, so think about it like that.
[00:39:00.630 --> 00:39:06.910] Speaker 1: Alts did not get their bull market rally at the end, because Bitcoin went into a bear
[00:39:06.910 --> 00:39:12.510] Speaker 1: market. Okay, now, that's where you have to start thinking about the S &P 500. If you look
[00:39:12.510 --> 00:39:18.530] Speaker 1: at the S &P 500, people have been calling for a recession for years, right? For years. And
[00:39:18.530 --> 00:39:22.550] Speaker 1: the reality is, is no one really knows when it's going to happen. If you look at initial
[00:39:22.550 --> 00:39:28.610] Speaker 1: claims, initial claims are relatively low, right? Like you can't look at initial claims and
[00:39:28.610 --> 00:39:33.530] Speaker 1: say that you're in a recession right now because this is not recessionary territory
[00:39:33.530 --> 00:39:40.410] Speaker 1: historically. I even have a recession risk dashboard that shows right now
[00:39:40.410 --> 00:39:47.210] Speaker 1: that it's kind of low. And given the fact that we have the Anthropic IPO and the
[00:39:47.210 --> 00:39:53.210] Speaker 1: OpenAI IPO, it would seem kind of strange if we go into a recession before that, right? It
[00:39:53.210 --> 00:39:56.910] Speaker 1: would make more sense to me that it would happen after that. And we haven't had either of
[00:39:56.910 --> 00:40:02.450] Speaker 1: those yet. If you look at these, though, a lot of these aren't going to really show concern
[00:40:02.450 --> 00:40:07.210] Speaker 1: until after stocks start to drop because stocks move first, then it shows up in the
[00:40:07.210 --> 00:40:13.090] Speaker 1: economy. The only one of these that is sort of designed to show a little bit more concern
[00:40:13.090 --> 00:40:19.030] Speaker 1: first is the interest rate risk. And if you look at the spread on the 10 -year and the
[00:40:19.030 --> 00:40:25.070] Speaker 1: three -month, it's this metric that starts to show up first. Now, it's been going up
[00:40:25.070 --> 00:40:25.550] Speaker 1: recently.
[00:40:26.990 --> 00:40:31.790] Speaker 1: not a lot right i mean it's not like it's all the way up at one but it has been going up
[00:40:31.790 --> 00:40:36.430] Speaker 1: and it makes sense because think about what's happened with yields recently okay so this
[00:40:36.430 --> 00:40:42.030] Speaker 1: has gone up now the the reason why this is the only one that i allow to really go up before
[00:40:42.030 --> 00:40:47.730] Speaker 1: there's more of a correction is because i want a signal the problem is if you allow it to
[00:40:47.730 --> 00:40:53.430] Speaker 1: do that there's going to be a lot of false positives for instance in the 1990s you can see
[00:40:53.430 --> 00:40:57.430] Speaker 1: this went all the way up and then it dropped there was a drop in the stock market but then
[00:40:57.430 --> 00:41:03.390] Speaker 1: we went marginally higher before the bear market actually began and you can see there's
[00:41:03.390 --> 00:41:09.290] Speaker 1: other times as well where this thing spikes right you can see it also spiked in 96 and
[00:41:09.290 --> 00:41:14.810] Speaker 1: there was no recession but all prior recessions saw this thing spiking right it saw it
[00:41:14.810 --> 00:41:21.470] Speaker 1: spiking and it tends to spike before the other things so that's been going up recently so
[00:41:21.470 --> 00:41:27.530] Speaker 1: it is a little concerning but again with initial claims where they are it's not really
[00:41:27.530 --> 00:41:32.770] Speaker 1: recessionary it's not really recession territory the problem is that it's lower asset
[00:41:32.770 --> 00:41:36.990] Speaker 1: prices that then lead to recession territory it's not recession territory that then leads
[00:41:36.990 --> 00:41:41.290] Speaker 1: to lower asset prices at least not that's not how the feedback loop begins it might be what
[00:41:41.290 --> 00:41:48.150] Speaker 1: happens eventually but it's not how it begins okay so i was thinking like you know with the
[00:41:48.150 --> 00:41:54.870] Speaker 1: s &p is it possible that we are near a top sort of a
[00:41:54.870 --> 00:42:00.490] Speaker 1: macro top rather than a local top i would like to believe that with these major ipos coming
[00:42:00.490 --> 00:42:07.470] Speaker 1: up that there could still be another sort of move for the S &P, right?
[00:42:07.970 --> 00:42:12.110] Speaker 1: But I was looking, you know, I was looking at the 90s, and I've, I've, I've done this
[00:42:12.110 --> 00:42:17.450] Speaker 1: before. And you have to remember that that fractals don't really often play out. They tend
[00:42:17.450 --> 00:42:21.110] Speaker 1: not to, especially when you're talking about like sort of the down, the down phase of it.
[00:42:22.050 --> 00:42:28.070] Speaker 1: But just to kind of put it on your radar, as to what would stop a Bitcoin bull market,
[00:42:28.370 --> 00:42:34.690] Speaker 1: it would be an S &P bear market. So if you if you sort of look at what the S &P did in the
[00:42:34.690 --> 00:42:39.930] Speaker 1: 90s with the dotcom boom, and then just kind of overlay it to what it's done since the AI
[00:42:39.930 --> 00:42:46.090] Speaker 1: boom, you can see that you have a lot of these sort of patterns line up, right? You have
[00:42:46.090 --> 00:42:51.570] Speaker 1: this little correction there, you have the correction in late 2024 2025, which we called
[00:42:51.570 --> 00:42:56.830] Speaker 1: for back then I said in late 2024, we were going to have about a 20 % drop. And that was
[00:42:56.830 --> 00:43:01.670] Speaker 1: actually based on the S &P divided by M2 chart, right? Because if you look at the S &P
[00:43:01.670 --> 00:43:08.070] Speaker 1: divided by M2, when we reach this level, I said, all right, guys, it's time for a 20 %
[00:43:08.070 --> 00:43:14.410] Speaker 1: drop. Because in the same move, in the 1990s, we had this 20 % drop, right? And we and in
[00:43:14.410 --> 00:43:19.590] Speaker 1: fact, it played out the exact same way, right? You had a 20 % drop, and then we rallied to
[00:43:19.590 --> 00:43:24.610] Speaker 1: all -time highs. And then after rallying up, you can see we had another drop about right
[00:43:24.610 --> 00:43:30.650] Speaker 1: there, which aligns right there, right? It's the same thing. And so the question is, are we
[00:43:30.650 --> 00:43:37.350] Speaker 1: just repeating this to the point that if you look at this fractal, what's
[00:43:37.350 --> 00:43:43.590] Speaker 1: interesting is that the months are flipped. So back then, the lows were in
[00:43:43.590 --> 00:43:50.470] Speaker 1: October leading into it right so if you look at the 90s it
[00:43:50.470 --> 00:43:57.410] Speaker 1: was um i believe it was october yeah october of 97 october of 98
[00:43:57.410 --> 00:44:03.710] Speaker 1: and then here october of 99 and then the top
[00:44:03.710 --> 00:44:09.670] Speaker 1: was in march right so it was october october october march
[00:44:09.670 --> 00:44:15.670] Speaker 1: but this time the lows were first
[00:44:17.910 --> 00:44:22.730] Speaker 1: one was october right But then the next one was March, and then the one after that was
[00:44:22.730 --> 00:44:29.610] Speaker 1: March. Right now, we're in October. So October and March seem to be periods for the S &P
[00:44:29.610 --> 00:44:34.530] Speaker 1: where it's kind of like a turnaround point. Either March or October seem to mark these
[00:44:34.530 --> 00:44:41.150] Speaker 1: levels. What's interesting is that the S &P could still stall out, drop into Q4,
[00:44:42.950 --> 00:44:48.450] Speaker 1: get everyone to believe that that's the four -year cycle low. we go back up into the
[00:44:48.450 --> 00:44:54.190] Speaker 1: Anthropic IPO, the OpenAI IPO, everyone's ready for the bull market. And then the bear
[00:44:54.190 --> 00:44:59.290] Speaker 1: market finally hits. Now, I'm not a big believer, honestly, in these fractals. I've done
[00:44:59.290 --> 00:45:05.390] Speaker 1: this long enough to know that anytime you overlay a fractal onto a chart like this, it's
[00:45:05.390 --> 00:45:10.990] Speaker 1: not going to play out, right? It's just not. And I'm only showing this, not to say that
[00:45:10.990 --> 00:45:17.350] Speaker 1: this is what's going to happen. But just to say, these are things that could stop a Bitcoin
[00:45:17.350 --> 00:45:23.990] Speaker 1: bull market, right? If the AI bubble were to sort of pop, if you will. I don't think that
[00:45:23.990 --> 00:45:30.910] Speaker 1: we are in the same type of bubble territory now that we were back then. If you look at
[00:45:30.910 --> 00:45:36.670] Speaker 1: the S &P divided by gold, for instance, the valuation of the S &P against gold is nowhere
[00:45:36.670 --> 00:45:42.050] Speaker 1: near what it was in the dot com era right back then the the ratio was around five to six
[00:45:42.050 --> 00:45:47.330] Speaker 1: today it's between one and two right we're we're sort of at a sort of a level where there's
[00:45:47.330 --> 00:45:53.510] Speaker 1: a resistance here right there's certainly a resistance as there was in 1973 and and also
[00:45:53.510 --> 00:46:00.490] Speaker 1: right here in in 2015 2016 but it's not as frothy as it was during the dot -com
[00:46:00.490 --> 00:46:07.170] Speaker 1: crash so when i think about like okay what if
[00:46:07.170 --> 00:46:13.790] Speaker 1: if the bears are right and we go down my concern at that
[00:46:13.790 --> 00:46:20.450] Speaker 1: point would be that it might kill the market for years if we just go back to say 60k and
[00:46:20.450 --> 00:46:25.070] Speaker 1: then bounce back up because then you're just rinsing everyone out right you're just you're
[00:46:25.070 --> 00:46:28.250] Speaker 1: you're you're wrecking the bears you're wrecking the bulls you're just going back and forth
[00:46:28.250 --> 00:46:31.610] Speaker 1: and and eventually people are just going to give up and they're going to be apathetic about
[00:46:31.610 --> 00:46:37.470] Speaker 1: the whole thing right so i think it's one of those things where like you got to be careful
[00:46:37.470 --> 00:46:42.990] Speaker 1: what you wish for and then i mean of course on the bull side you know if if this holds then
[00:46:42.990 --> 00:46:47.490] Speaker 1: what likely happens is it just goes up into the recession right until the recession
[00:46:47.490 --> 00:46:53.950] Speaker 1: actually arrives whether it's 2027 2028 2029 who who really knows um i think that's what
[00:46:53.950 --> 00:46:59.670] Speaker 1: makes it particularly difficult is because if you are buying you know what the potential
[00:46:59.670 --> 00:47:05.010] Speaker 1: headwind is right like you know like okay how long is it going to take for you know for all
[00:47:05.010 --> 00:47:09.170] Speaker 1: this uncertainty to really start to affect markets because markets in general don't like
[00:47:09.170 --> 00:47:14.230] Speaker 1: uncertainty if you look at the world uncertainty index the world uncertainty index is
[00:47:14.230 --> 00:47:19.170] Speaker 1: pretty high right now right like it's higher you know i mean it's been high ever since
[00:47:19.170 --> 00:47:24.910] Speaker 1: really the the new administration right ever since Trump took office, when he implemented
[00:47:24.910 --> 00:47:28.810] Speaker 1: tariffs, and I mean, all the different headlines, obviously, that's going to introduce
[00:47:28.810 --> 00:47:35.430] Speaker 1: uncertainty. Markets are still at all time highs. But oftentimes, you know, uncertainty is
[00:47:35.430 --> 00:47:40.630] Speaker 1: not great for markets. If you look at the economic policy uncertainty index, that's also
[00:47:40.630 --> 00:47:43.710] Speaker 1: been more elevated than it normally is.
[00:47:46.170 --> 00:47:52.590] Speaker 1: So I think this is what makes it so difficult is that the the technical sort of the pure
[00:47:52.590 --> 00:47:58.430] Speaker 1: technical indicators for bitcoin are bullish the rsi is bullish the macd is bullish the
[00:47:58.430 --> 00:48:04.710] Speaker 1: golden cross is bullish above the 50 -week moving average that's all bullish and it's hard
[00:48:04.710 --> 00:48:11.410] Speaker 1: to like ignore that but the bearish view is that a lot of the on -chain stuff
[00:48:11.410 --> 00:48:18.330] Speaker 1: never actually reset and in 2019 we went down didn't reset we
[00:48:18.330 --> 00:48:24.150] Speaker 1: went up convinced everyone that we were back in business and then the recession arrived and
[00:48:24.150 --> 00:48:30.050] Speaker 1: then we still triggered all this all the on -chain indicators anyways it still it still all
[00:48:30.050 --> 00:48:35.470] Speaker 1: got triggered regardless because the recession finally arrived i think that's what makes it
[00:48:35.470 --> 00:48:41.350] Speaker 1: so difficult is because you know i thought the most likely outcome for bitcoin going into
[00:48:41.350 --> 00:48:48.250] Speaker 1: this was that the rate hike the rate hike would cause bitcoin to drop
[00:48:48.250 --> 00:48:54.590] Speaker 1: go below the realized price right go below the realized price which is around like 53k or
[00:48:54.590 --> 00:49:00.390] Speaker 1: so and then have a rally after that that's what i thought
[00:49:00.390 --> 00:49:07.150] Speaker 1: because i assumed that when we had a rate hike it would spook the
[00:49:07.150 --> 00:49:13.410] Speaker 1: market initially like it does on average. Again, the S &P 500,
[00:49:13.990 --> 00:49:20.610] Speaker 1: on average, after, sorry, I need to look at the right thing. After a rate hike,
[00:49:24.060 --> 00:49:26.460] Speaker 1: on average, the S &P goes down.
[00:49:28.760 --> 00:49:35.460] Speaker 1: So I thought, you know, I was all, I thought, oh, I'm very smart. Like, I'm going to look
[00:49:35.460 --> 00:49:40.260] Speaker 1: at this and say, look, we're going to get a rate hike. The S &P is going to drop. And it
[00:49:40.260 --> 00:49:44.980] Speaker 1: looks like it's going to bottom right around, you know, the the sort of the mid to in part
[00:49:44.980 --> 00:49:49.400] Speaker 1: of q4 that's going to lead to the four year cycle low for bitcoin everyone's going to freak
[00:49:49.400 --> 00:49:53.840] Speaker 1: out and call for a recession but instead we're going to get a lot more rate hikes and we're
[00:49:53.840 --> 00:49:57.380] Speaker 1: just going to go up for another year and a half right that was what i was thinking um and
[00:49:57.380 --> 00:50:03.860] Speaker 1: the reason i thought that was because when the in the 90s when the fed started raising
[00:50:03.860 --> 00:50:10.580] Speaker 1: rates again they had to raise rates look at i was a complete mess back then imagine if we
[00:50:10.580 --> 00:50:14.300] Speaker 1: have to deal with this this time like look at this in the 90s you see they they they
[00:50:14.300 --> 00:50:19.000] Speaker 1: lowered rates and then they raised rates 25 basis points so i was thinking we were kind of
[00:50:19.000 --> 00:50:24.260] Speaker 1: like in this in this part i was thinking we were like right there we get a rate hike s &p
[00:50:24.260 --> 00:50:29.280] Speaker 1: gets a drop people freak out think it's a recession but then we go up for another couple
[00:50:29.280 --> 00:50:36.160] Speaker 1: years markets go like this we then eventually get a few rate cuts maybe
[00:50:36.160 --> 00:50:39.820] Speaker 1: that then leads to the final phase of the bull market. Maybe that's when people get their
[00:50:39.820 --> 00:50:45.720] Speaker 1: finally long awaited alt season. And then we raise rates again, and then it kills the
[00:50:45.720 --> 00:50:51.600] Speaker 1: market. Right? That, that was kind of what I was somewhat basing it on. But then the market
[00:50:51.600 --> 00:50:57.400] Speaker 1: basically ripped me a new one, when we got the rate hike. And instead of the S &P dropping,
[00:50:57.700 --> 00:51:04.480] Speaker 1: it went up instead. Right? So that that's kind of like where I got a little bit off base.
[00:51:04.480 --> 00:51:08.900] Speaker 1: And then that's why I don't want to be overly deterministic here. So what I would say is
[00:51:08.900 --> 00:51:15.120] Speaker 1: this, right? We're coming up on a pretty important time for Bitcoin right now. And
[00:51:15.120 --> 00:51:21.900] Speaker 1: I would say this, if Bitcoin closes below these levels, then
[00:51:21.900 --> 00:51:28.080] Speaker 1: I would then more so defer towards the fake out move in 2015
[00:51:28.080 --> 00:51:34.200] Speaker 1: or 2020. I would, right? That's what I would defer to. Because again,
[00:51:34.480 --> 00:51:39.480] Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's a pandemic. What I'm saying is that when you have a move where you
[00:51:39.480 --> 00:51:46.100] Speaker 1: convince everyone that the bull market is back on, like in 2020, and like in 2015,
[00:51:46.700 --> 00:51:53.640] Speaker 1: if you give back that, then it unwinds immediately. It does not take six months to
[00:51:53.640 --> 00:51:59.500] Speaker 1: unwind. It just unwinds overnight, practically, because then everyone who was bullish now
[00:51:59.500 --> 00:52:01.920] Speaker 1: realizes the bear market's not over. Okay?
[00:52:04.440 --> 00:52:11.440] Speaker 1: That's why I'm saying respect the closes. Respect the closes. As long as
[00:52:11.440 --> 00:52:16.700] Speaker 1: we're closing up here, the bulls can just simply say, look, things are fine. But if you
[00:52:16.700 --> 00:52:22.580] Speaker 1: close below, that's where it becomes a problem. And that's where you would want to lean
[00:52:22.580 --> 00:52:24.160] Speaker 1: into the bear narrative a lot more.
[00:52:25.780 --> 00:52:31.640] Speaker 1: Now, we're going to look at another thing. The daily timeframe for bitcoin
[00:52:31.640 --> 00:52:37.780] Speaker 1: bitcoin right now is doing a very similar thing that it did after the may high right and
[00:52:37.780 --> 00:52:41.040] Speaker 1: i'll show you what i mean look and actually it might be a little bit better to look on
[00:52:41.040 --> 00:52:44.900] Speaker 1: total market cap because i think that's a little bit more relevant here look at total
[00:52:44.900 --> 00:52:50.860] Speaker 1: market cap look at what it did after the may high it came down swept it
[00:52:50.860 --> 00:52:57.520] Speaker 1: swept it there right see same thing rallied back up rallied back up came back down
[00:52:57.520 --> 00:53:04.520] Speaker 1: again close below it just like it did over here and then it rallied for about
[00:53:04.520 --> 00:53:11.080] Speaker 1: three days three to four days we're currently in day two of that but you see that you see
[00:53:11.080 --> 00:53:17.260] Speaker 1: how it how it did that and then it was the next week it unwound
[00:53:17.260 --> 00:53:24.080] Speaker 1: so if you look at this let's say we're right here and let's say the bears are
[00:53:24.080 --> 00:53:30.980] Speaker 1: right It would only take 12 days to basically print the
[00:53:30.980 --> 00:53:37.080] Speaker 1: low, right? It would only take 12 days. And if you look at
[00:53:37.080 --> 00:53:43.720] Speaker 1: that ROI chart that we were talking about from the low,
[00:53:44.140 --> 00:53:49.820] Speaker 1: right? If you look at the ROI after the cycle bottom, you go out to the next bottom. We're
[00:53:49.820 --> 00:53:52.040] Speaker 1: currently on day 1425.
[00:53:53.480 --> 00:53:59.440] Speaker 1: remember last cycle bottomed on 1436 that's 11 days from now
[00:53:59.440 --> 00:54:06.020] Speaker 1: that's why that's why i'm saying that if if bitcoin if total market cap repeats
[00:54:06.020 --> 00:54:12.800] Speaker 1: this the the low is not is unlikely to be six months from now it would be
[00:54:12.800 --> 00:54:18.980] Speaker 1: immediate right it would be it would it would happen so quickly that i'm not going to have
[00:54:18.980 --> 00:54:22.700] Speaker 1: time to even like almost come on here and talk about it very much because it would happen
[00:54:22.700 --> 00:54:27.860] Speaker 1: practically overnight. That's why, and I've said this for a long time, bear markets make
[00:54:27.860 --> 00:54:32.660] Speaker 1: fools of both bulls and bears. Because for most of the bear
[00:54:32.660 --> 00:54:39.620] Speaker 1: market, Bitcoin actually goes up. That's why bears look like
[00:54:39.620 --> 00:54:46.240] Speaker 1: idiots in bear markets. Because Bitcoin generally likes to trend higher and then it breaks
[00:54:46.240 --> 00:54:50.700] Speaker 1: down very quickly. And then it just slowly trends up for a long time before then like
[00:54:50.700 --> 00:54:57.320] Speaker 1: breaking down. look at this cycle, right? When it drops, it drops fairly quickly. And then
[00:54:57.320 --> 00:55:02.860] Speaker 1: it spends months trending up and then dropped quickly, months trending up and then drops
[00:55:02.860 --> 00:55:07.700] Speaker 1: quickly. That's why it's so hard to be a bear in a bear market, because you spend the
[00:55:07.700 --> 00:55:13.160] Speaker 1: entire bear market thinking you're wrong, because there's only like 10 or 12 days every few
[00:55:13.160 --> 00:55:17.660] Speaker 1: months where you feel like a genius and you're like, well, see, I told you so. And by the
[00:55:17.660 --> 00:55:22.300] Speaker 1: time you say I told you so, that's the next low and then you spend the next three months
[00:55:22.300 --> 00:55:29.120] Speaker 1: wishing you hadn't said that right so if you're looking at total
[00:55:29.120 --> 00:55:32.220] Speaker 1: market if you're looking at total market cap
[00:55:34.230 --> 00:55:40.770] Speaker 1: this is why i think we're the the uncertainty is about to unwind right we're going to make
[00:55:40.770 --> 00:55:46.110] Speaker 1: a decision here we're either going to break back up or we're not and it's going to happen i
[00:55:46.110 --> 00:55:51.270] Speaker 1: think really really soon the total market cap has swept the low, just like it did over here
[00:55:51.270 --> 00:55:57.030] Speaker 1: previously. But look at what it did back in May. It also swept the low. See this?
[00:55:58.110 --> 00:56:04.830] Speaker 1: Swept the low, rallied around the 50 -day, and then sold off. Just because it sold off back
[00:56:04.830 --> 00:56:10.150] Speaker 1: then does not mean it has to sell off today. What I'm saying is if it does sell off,
[00:56:10.430 --> 00:56:16.470] Speaker 1: recognize it's going to be over before you can blink. It's going to be over before you can
[00:56:16.470 --> 00:56:16.630] Speaker 1: blink.
[00:56:17.870 --> 00:56:21.430] Speaker 1: And if it rallies, it'll probably be over before you can blink too. Just like it was over
[00:56:21.430 --> 00:56:26.410] Speaker 1: here, right? You get like a week of a rally and then you spend another two months
[00:56:26.410 --> 00:56:32.330] Speaker 1: consolidating. And that's what happened in 2019, right? Bitcoin just sort of stair -stepped
[00:56:32.330 --> 00:56:39.130] Speaker 1: up for months. If you don't know what I'm talking about, if you look at the Bitcoin chart
[00:56:39.130 --> 00:56:43.070] Speaker 1: and you go all the way back to 2019,
[00:56:44.730 --> 00:56:48.630] Speaker 1: and you sort of zoom in here what that's what bitcoin did right like it just sort of stair
[00:56:48.630 --> 00:56:53.910] Speaker 1: stepped upwards where it would put in a high hold it as a hold it as support and then just
[00:56:53.910 --> 00:57:00.830] Speaker 1: kind of just slowly did that for a while and then eventually it swept below it
[00:57:00.830 --> 00:57:07.770] Speaker 1: rallied and then it was over quickly and look how look how quickly it became
[00:57:07.770 --> 00:57:10.890] Speaker 1: over once that final rally ended
[00:57:12.410 --> 00:57:19.290] Speaker 1: it was over in two to three weeks in 2015 when the final rally
[00:57:19.290 --> 00:57:25.530] Speaker 1: ended and we sort of broke back down below the 50 -day moving average it was over in 10
[00:57:25.530 --> 00:57:32.290] Speaker 1: days so i it's hard because like i i see the bull case right like i'm not
[00:57:32.290 --> 00:57:36.790] Speaker 1: some people think like i'm blind to it that they think that i can't understand there's an
[00:57:36.790 --> 00:57:40.870] Speaker 1: rsi that looks good and that the golden cross and that we're above the I get all that,
[00:57:41.030 --> 00:57:46.310] Speaker 1: right? And that's why I said back in July, the accumulation phase had begun. I mean, I
[00:57:46.310 --> 00:57:51.130] Speaker 1: clearly said that, and I've said it in practically every video since, that my strategy for
[00:57:51.130 --> 00:57:56.510] Speaker 1: Bitcoin is to just simply DCA throughout the second half of the midterm year, right? That's
[00:57:56.510 --> 00:58:00.070] Speaker 1: what I've normally done. That's what I did in 2018. That's what I did in 2022. That's what
[00:58:00.070 --> 00:58:01.130] Speaker 1: I said I'm going to do in 2026.
[00:58:04.380 --> 00:58:09.620] Speaker 1: Because I know how hard it is. I know how hard it is to navigate the latter part of the
[00:58:09.620 --> 00:58:10.200] Speaker 1: midterm year.
[00:58:12.540 --> 00:58:18.500] Speaker 1: so this is where we are right this is i hope that you can at least leave this video
[00:58:20.680 --> 00:58:26.120] Speaker 1: understanding why there is so much uncertainty right because you're probably if you're if
[00:58:26.120 --> 00:58:30.380] Speaker 1: you're a bull you're like what what is ben talking about like why is he ignoring these
[00:58:30.380 --> 00:58:37.160] Speaker 1: indicators why is he ignoring it i'm not i i i recognize them and that's why i said i
[00:58:37.160 --> 00:58:41.860] Speaker 1: thought there was back in August, I said, I think there's a 65 % chance the low is ahead of
[00:58:41.860 --> 00:58:48.400] Speaker 1: us and 35 % that it's behind us. I still gave some probability to the low being in. It just
[00:58:48.400 --> 00:58:53.640] Speaker 1: wasn't my base case. Maybe it should have been my base case, right? But it wasn't my base
[00:58:53.640 --> 00:58:57.900] Speaker 1: case back then. I didn't say it couldn't be in. I just said it wasn't my base case.
[00:59:00.070 --> 00:59:06.470] Speaker 1: So here we are. I understand the bull case. completely understand it okay you don't have to
[00:59:06.470 --> 00:59:12.830] Speaker 1: convince me i mean i get it i also understand the bear case from a more macro perspective
[00:59:12.830 --> 00:59:17.950] Speaker 1: by the way in 2019 when we were breaking out there were not a lot of people talking about
[00:59:17.950 --> 00:59:23.910] Speaker 1: it being a false breakout and and also heading back down you couldn't predict the pandemic
[00:59:23.910 --> 00:59:28.450] Speaker 1: right but i and i don't i'm not suggesting we're about to have a pandemic but what i am
[00:59:28.450 --> 00:59:33.810] Speaker 1: saying is that there are other things that are concerning right and and And one of those
[00:59:33.810 --> 00:59:39.890] Speaker 1: things is just simply the price of oil, right? I mean, oil just keeps on going up and who
[00:59:39.890 --> 00:59:44.370] Speaker 1: knows when it's ever going to stop. And I imagine that's weighing on people. And really, I
[00:59:44.370 --> 00:59:49.850] Speaker 1: think inflation is, you know, if you look at like the producer price index as it just had
[00:59:49.850 --> 00:59:56.550] Speaker 1: that big move up, I think that's also sort of weighing because it just means that rates are
[00:59:56.550 --> 01:00:00.890] Speaker 1: going to start going higher. It doesn't mean you can't have a bull market. But what it does
[01:00:00.890 --> 01:00:04.190] Speaker 1: mean for crypto is that if rates are going back up and they're going to become more
[01:00:04.190 --> 01:00:10.250] Speaker 1: restrictive, you should expect Bitcoin dominance to go back up like it is as the market
[01:00:10.250 --> 01:00:15.170] Speaker 1: starts to realize we need rate hikes, rate hikes and not rate cuts. The dollar generally
[01:00:15.170 --> 01:00:21.050] Speaker 1: wants to go higher. That's at least my interpretation of of all of this. So
[01:00:21.050 --> 01:00:27.890] Speaker 1: I hope you recognize why it's it's hard to sort of make videos that I know like
[01:00:27.890 --> 01:00:33.130] Speaker 1: 100 ,000 people are going to see because people want answers and you know there's a common
[01:00:33.130 --> 01:00:36.830] Speaker 1: saying there's a time to go long there's a time to go short and there's a time to go
[01:00:36.830 --> 01:00:42.330] Speaker 1: fishing and I don't fish actually I've never been fishing in my entire life I like to just
[01:00:42.330 --> 01:00:45.850] Speaker 1: go play chess right there's a time to go long there's time to go short there's a time to go
[01:00:45.850 --> 01:00:49.910] Speaker 1: play chess for me there's a time to go play chess right I mean I'm just playing chess every
[01:00:49.910 --> 01:00:54.250] Speaker 1: day just trying to see like waiting to see what happens but waiting to basically see who's
[01:00:54.250 --> 01:00:59.690] Speaker 1: right right like are the are the bulls right or are the bears right and i was way more
[01:00:59.690 --> 01:01:05.930] Speaker 1: convinced the bears were right a few weeks ago than than i am now with with these breakouts
[01:01:05.930 --> 01:01:11.870] Speaker 1: right way more convinced back then um but i would say you know be willing to pivot very
[01:01:11.870 --> 01:01:17.650] Speaker 1: quickly on whether this holds or not because if it if it if it holds
[01:01:18.350 --> 01:01:25.330] Speaker 1: then we should be testing these highs probably before the end of the month right like you
[01:01:25.330 --> 01:01:31.610] Speaker 1: can't Bitcoin can't just hang out down here without people starting to lose faith, okay? So
[01:01:31.610 --> 01:01:38.330] Speaker 1: if this holds, if the 50 -day holds, we should be at new local highs before the end of the
[01:01:38.330 --> 01:01:43.190] Speaker 1: month. And if it doesn't hold, then we should be heading back down to the bottom of the
[01:01:43.190 --> 01:01:49.850] Speaker 1: range really, really soon. So this is what you got to watch, right? These levels right
[01:01:49.850 --> 01:01:50.050] Speaker 1: here.
[01:01:51.630 --> 01:01:55.150] Speaker 1: By the way, I mean, certain things are already below these levels. if you look like
[01:01:55.150 --> 01:01:59.770] Speaker 1: ethereum it's been struggling a lot more total two i think total three has been a little
[01:01:59.770 --> 01:02:03.890] Speaker 1: stronger it's it's actually below the 50 day but there's times where total three gets below
[01:02:03.890 --> 01:02:08.910] Speaker 1: it and then recovers without bitcoin going below it so don't put too much faith into that
[01:02:08.910 --> 01:02:13.830] Speaker 1: same thing with total two right like total two is already below it total is the one i think
[01:02:13.830 --> 01:02:20.030] Speaker 1: to track and really right now bitcoin looks stronger at these levels than it did back in
[01:02:20.030 --> 01:02:25.090] Speaker 1: may because if you look at where it is it's actually above the 50 day right now uh you know
[01:02:25.090 --> 01:02:30.050] Speaker 1: several percent above it whereas back in may it was kind of just right on the line after
[01:02:30.050 --> 01:02:35.750] Speaker 1: after that drop like basically saying that this drop here this wick down is kind of similar
[01:02:35.750 --> 01:02:36.230] Speaker 1: to this one
[01:02:38.540 --> 01:02:45.440] Speaker 1: so decision time is coming very very soon
[01:02:45.440 --> 01:02:51.240] Speaker 1: one more thing i know this video is is kind of short right now so let me make it even
[01:02:51.240 --> 01:02:57.060] Speaker 1: longer um the bitcoin silver valuation and the bitcoin gold valuation
[01:02:57.060 --> 01:03:02.920] Speaker 1: this is tricky the bitcoin silver valuation to me
[01:03:02.920 --> 01:03:08.680] Speaker 1: i can't i can't sit here on the bitcoin silver valuation and call for for much lower than i
[01:03:08.680 --> 01:03:14.260] Speaker 1: already went because i was already under the impression that just sweeping the low would be
[01:03:14.260 --> 01:03:20.940] Speaker 1: good enough. So against silver, I would say Bitcoin probably has
[01:03:20.940 --> 01:03:26.660] Speaker 1: bottomed for a long time. But the problem is against gold.
[01:03:27.480 --> 01:03:33.420] Speaker 1: Against gold, I don't know that it has. I really don't know because I, you know, when you
[01:03:33.420 --> 01:03:38.220] Speaker 1: have these ranges like this, normally what happens is you eventually test them. Even though
[01:03:38.220 --> 01:03:43.840] Speaker 1: you don't want to, you eventually test them. It's no different than the ETH Bitcoin chart,
[01:03:44.200 --> 01:03:49.660] Speaker 1: the ETH market cap divided by the Bitcoin market cap chart. I spent years telling people
[01:03:49.660 --> 01:03:54.060] Speaker 1: that this thing was heading back down to the floor. And it did eventually, right? It did
[01:03:54.060 --> 01:03:59.400] Speaker 1: eventually. It took a long time. And eventually it did. Same thing with Solana. I spent
[01:03:59.400 --> 01:04:03.820] Speaker 1: years telling people that this thing was heading back down to the floor. Guess what? It
[01:04:03.820 --> 01:04:08.920] Speaker 1: hasn't yet. And guess what? I will continue to spend years telling you that it probably
[01:04:08.920 --> 01:04:13.000] Speaker 1: eventually will and i might be wrong about it there are a few altcoins that go against what
[01:04:13.000 --> 01:04:18.980] Speaker 1: i think but it's hard to look at these charts and not just assume that eventually this just
[01:04:18.980 --> 01:04:22.620] Speaker 1: comes back down to the lows the range lows people didn't think it was going to happen with
[01:04:22.620 --> 01:04:28.440] Speaker 1: eth and it did i think it'll happen with solana too and when you look at the bitcoin gold
[01:04:28.440 --> 01:04:30.120] Speaker 1: valuation that
[01:04:33.120 --> 01:04:36.440] Speaker 1: was my base case when i sort of said it a few weeks ago and then bitcoin just kind of kept
[01:04:36.440 --> 01:04:42.520] Speaker 1: going up you might say well how is this possible like how could how could bitcoin have
[01:04:42.520 --> 01:04:48.600] Speaker 1: bottomed against silver but not against gold that's a great question right but i have a
[01:04:48.600 --> 01:04:54.220] Speaker 1: great answer for it in 1974 that's probably exactly what you thought i was going to say
[01:04:54.220 --> 01:05:01.140] Speaker 1: next right in 1974 silver had a similar move it topped in in early part
[01:05:01.140 --> 01:05:07.540] Speaker 1: in like february of 1974 and it dropped and it stayed at the lows for a couple of years
[01:05:07.540 --> 01:05:11.800] Speaker 1: before going back up. But gold put
[01:05:13.370 --> 01:05:15.770] Speaker 1: in a high in 1974
[01:05:17.210 --> 01:05:24.090] Speaker 1: and then put in a higher high in late 1974, early 1975. So
[01:05:24.090 --> 01:05:30.910] Speaker 1: that's exactly how it could happen. What if gold
[01:05:30.910 --> 01:05:37.650] Speaker 1: bottoms soon, right? because yields are topping and gold starts to head back up. But
[01:05:37.650 --> 01:05:44.350] Speaker 1: remember, in 1974, when gold went back up, silver went up, but not near the highs,
[01:05:45.050 --> 01:05:52.010] Speaker 1: right? It consolidated for a while. And what you'll notice here is if you zoom out,
[01:05:52.850 --> 01:05:59.590] Speaker 1: you look at the bar pattern in 1974 to silver's next top. I'm
[01:05:59.590 --> 01:06:05.230] Speaker 1: saying, what if this is a similar type of move where silver spins a what maybe it rallies
[01:06:05.230 --> 01:06:10.050] Speaker 1: soon as well like I could see it going back up into the mid 70s but then what if it kind of
[01:06:10.050 --> 01:06:14.370] Speaker 1: consolidates and doesn't get another big move until the next midterm year
[01:06:16.100 --> 01:06:22.740] Speaker 1: but during that period in 1974 gold dropped but then eventually it went back up
[01:06:22.740 --> 01:06:28.060] Speaker 1: and if you don't know what I'm talking about or having a hard time visualizing it look at
[01:06:28.060 --> 01:06:34.740] Speaker 1: the year -to -date ROI, right? If you look at the year -to -date ROI of gold in
[01:06:37.240 --> 01:06:40.320] Speaker 1: 2026, right, and 1974,
[01:06:42.300 --> 01:06:46.220] Speaker 1: you can see it rallied, it then dropped, and then it rallied to new highs before the end of
[01:06:46.220 --> 01:06:50.740] Speaker 1: the year. But in that same year, when you look at silver,
[01:06:54.110 --> 01:06:57.090] Speaker 1: we don't have it on here. Of course, we only go back to 1976.
[01:06:58.330 --> 01:07:02.970] Speaker 1: But you can imagine, right? Like we sort of showed it on this chart. Silver put in a high
[01:07:02.970 --> 01:07:07.350] Speaker 1: and i was just a lower high while it was a lower high in december while gold was going to
[01:07:07.350 --> 01:07:13.690] Speaker 1: new all -time highs that is how is a way that this could all make sense that's the way in
[01:07:13.690 --> 01:07:20.250] Speaker 1: which the bitcoin gold valuation could go back down here but the bitcoin silver
[01:07:20.250 --> 01:07:27.230] Speaker 1: valuation has already bottomed because maybe silver doesn't participate in the
[01:07:27.230 --> 01:07:29.790] Speaker 1: next rally to new highs like gold does
[01:07:31.290 --> 01:07:36.550] Speaker 1: so that that's the way in which i think this could all make sense is that bitcoin bottomed
[01:07:36.550 --> 01:07:42.790] Speaker 1: against silver but not yet against gold and what's interesting is is this ratio
[01:07:42.790 --> 01:07:49.570] Speaker 1: of 10 is where it bottomed back over here so imagine imagine gold
[01:07:49.570 --> 01:07:55.150] Speaker 1: you know ends up being that ratio you can do the math right i mean it's just if if bitcoin
[01:07:55.150 --> 01:08:01.710] Speaker 1: if gold is 5k that puts bitcoin at 50k if gold is 6k that puts bitcoin at 60k right so you
[01:08:01.710 --> 01:08:06.850] Speaker 1: can see where that ratio like what the price of bitcoin would be if the bitcoin gold
[01:08:06.850 --> 01:08:13.830] Speaker 1: valuation hits 10 right you can kind of see that right you just it's 10x right it's
[01:08:13.830 --> 01:08:20.690] Speaker 1: just 10x the move so if if the s p is uh or sorry if gold is 7 000 that's bitcoin at 70
[01:08:20.690 --> 01:08:27.430] Speaker 1: 000. if gold is at 4 000 that's bitcoin at 40 000. but that is is
[01:08:27.630 --> 01:08:30.950] Speaker 1: sort of the the thing i'm watching because you have sort of this move and it's kind of
[01:08:30.950 --> 01:08:37.410] Speaker 1: going up if if bitcoin is a fake out and gold bottoms while bitcoin is topping
[01:08:37.410 --> 01:08:42.070] Speaker 1: then this could quickly come back down and then you start back up just like it did with
[01:08:42.070 --> 01:08:46.690] Speaker 1: silver it's just that with silver it already completely unwound but for gold it hasn't
[01:08:46.690 --> 01:08:51.770] Speaker 1: completely unwound because it never swept the low, but it did for silver.
[01:08:53.470 --> 01:08:58.910] Speaker 1: That's a lot, right? And I hope that... I know when I do these videos, a lot of people are
[01:08:58.910 --> 01:09:02.750] Speaker 1: like, oh, well, you're saying it could go up or down. Yes, but I hope that some of you can
[01:09:02.750 --> 01:09:09.170] Speaker 1: at least appreciate the intricacies of all of this stuff and why it is so complicated
[01:09:09.170 --> 01:09:14.270] Speaker 1: to just say that this is what's exactly going to happen when so much of it just simply
[01:09:14.270 --> 01:09:20.090] Speaker 1: depends on things that are completely outside of my control. I mean, if Trump comes out
[01:09:20.090 --> 01:09:24.250] Speaker 1: tomorrow and says the war on Iran's over, then yields probably plummet and risk assets go
[01:09:24.250 --> 01:09:28.830] Speaker 1: up, right? Like, who knows what's going to happen? That's why there's a lot of uncertainty.
[01:09:29.310 --> 01:09:36.170] Speaker 1: That's why you defer to the chart and say, if this is a fake out, the chart
[01:09:36.170 --> 01:09:36.870] Speaker 1: will tell me.
[01:09:38.250 --> 01:09:41.690] Speaker 1: and if the chart doesn't tell me within the next week or two
[01:09:43.470 --> 01:09:47.890] Speaker 1: more of the bear indicators are going to become bull indicators right people that are
[01:09:47.890 --> 01:09:53.670] Speaker 1: bearish because it's q4 are going to turn bullish if this doesn't break down soon so that's
[01:09:53.670 --> 01:09:59.070] Speaker 1: why where we are right now is so critical and and one of those things where i keep thinking
[01:09:59.070 --> 01:10:03.190] Speaker 1: be careful what you wish for as much as it would have made sense for me to bitcoin to go
[01:10:03.190 --> 01:10:09.710] Speaker 1: down in q4 it still very much could. If it does, it might, you know, it might really affect
[01:10:09.710 --> 01:10:16.350] Speaker 1: the psyche of people that that were in this breakout. They would probably become sellers
[01:10:16.350 --> 01:10:22.150] Speaker 1: in a few months if we if we rally back up. Now, if we if we drop down and put in a new low
[01:10:22.150 --> 01:10:26.430] Speaker 1: by the end of the year, then I'm, you know, just sign me up for the bull market in 2027.
[01:10:26.670 --> 01:10:31.210] Speaker 1: Right. But I'm saying if we if we just drop back down for a higher low and then come back
[01:10:31.210 --> 01:10:35.970] Speaker 1: up, I mean, we'll cross that bridge if it happens. hopefully that's not what happens out of
[01:10:35.970 --> 01:10:39.310] Speaker 1: all three scenarios that's what i would like the least right like if you had to tell me
[01:10:39.310 --> 01:10:46.190] Speaker 1: there's three scenarios option one is we just bounce here and go up option two is we
[01:10:46.190 --> 01:10:53.190] Speaker 1: break to a new low and then go up and option three is we break down and print a
[01:10:53.190 --> 01:10:59.850] Speaker 1: higher low and go up the option i like the least is this one because this one is the one
[01:10:59.850 --> 01:11:06.450] Speaker 1: that is most likely to lead to a longer downturn that would last a lot longer whereas the
[01:11:06.450 --> 01:11:08.590] Speaker 1: other two outcomes i
[01:11:09.840 --> 01:11:12.860] Speaker 1: think you could just say that this time's not different right like it's just more or less
[01:11:12.860 --> 01:11:16.380] Speaker 1: the same stuff you know either one of these outcomes could theoretically end the same way
[01:11:16.380 --> 01:11:20.760] Speaker 1: um so those are my views thank you guys for tuning in subscribe give the video a thumbs up
[01:11:20.760 --> 01:11:25.220] Speaker 1: uh i know these videos are relatively short so my apologies for that we'll try to make the
[01:11:25.220 --> 01:11:29.140] Speaker 1: next one longer um but those that's what i think if you guys want to come talk about this
[01:11:29.140 --> 01:11:32.260] Speaker 1: stuff at the conference we have the investing through the cycles conference coming up i'm
[01:11:32.260 --> 01:11:34.520] Speaker 1: going to be there we'll also have a lot of other people there they're going to have their
[01:11:34.520 --> 01:11:39.980] Speaker 1: own opinions uh learn from them because as you know i'm certainly not always right uh in
[01:11:39.980 --> 01:11:44.740] Speaker 1: fact i i had a pretty good run for a little while there uh recently i think uh i i've taken
[01:11:44.740 --> 01:11:49.760] Speaker 1: a couple of hits but um that's normal in markets you just got to get back on your feet and
[01:11:49.760 --> 01:11:53.180] Speaker 1: and try to recover from that so thank you guys for being here subscribe give the video a
[01:11:53.180 --> 01:11:54.560] Speaker 1: thumbs up and i'll see you next time bye