1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,900 Speaker 1: Hey y 'all, Peter Zion here coming to you from Colorado. If you've ever wondered what it's 2 00:00:03,900 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: like to try to grill me in person, you get your opportunity on the 23rd of October at noon 3 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:15,340 Speaker 1: Eastern. That's when we are doing our next question time and our members get to send in 4 00:00:15,340 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: questions ahead of time or try to stump me in person live. All you have to do to 5 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:27,540 Speaker 1: participate is do something you were probably planning on already, which is pre -order my 6 00:00:27,540 --> 00:00:32,520 Speaker 1: new book, acceptable range. That gets you a one -month subscription on our Patreon system 7 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 1: at the analyst level. A lot of benefits there with the analysis that comes out every day in 8 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:42,540 Speaker 1: our news digest, but really most people think the best part is to skewer me. So look for 9 00:00:42,540 --> 00:00:47,160 Speaker 1: the links attached to this communication, and we'll see you soon. Hey everybody, Peter Zine 10 00:00:47,160 --> 00:00:50,740 Speaker 1: here coming to you from Colorado. Today we're taking a question from the Patreon page, 11 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:56,980 Speaker 1: specifically at the recent summit between U .S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Chairman 12 00:00:56,980 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 1: Xi Jinping, 13 00:00:58,820 --> 00:00:58,920 UNKNOWN: uh, 14 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:04,460 Speaker 1: Xi didn't look that good. How bad is he, and what's the secession plan in China? It's like, 15 00:01:04,540 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 1: well, let's start with the first part there. Uh, yeah, he looked bad. Um, he was in the 16 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:12,180 Speaker 1: White House, you know, for quite some time, but over two -thirds of the time he was there, 17 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:17,340 Speaker 1: he was in a separate room with just his wife, basically recovering. Of course, none of that 18 00:01:17,340 --> 00:01:21,740 Speaker 1: made it into Chinese media. Everyone just talked about how Xi outsmarted and outlasted 19 00:01:21,740 --> 00:01:26,420 Speaker 1: Trump in every possible way because that's what propaganda looks like. Anyway, of the hours 20 00:01:26,420 --> 00:01:31,060 Speaker 1: that he was at the White House, they had very little contact. I mean, there was the dinner, 21 00:01:31,320 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: there was the tour, and then there were a couple of short meetings. And honestly, that was 22 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:41,540 Speaker 1: it. Not a lot was discussed because there wasn't a lot of time to discuss it. And the deals 23 00:01:41,540 --> 00:01:45,580 Speaker 1: that came out on the other side were pretty milquetoast. And then he was hustled back onto 24 00:01:45,580 --> 00:01:51,220 Speaker 1: his plane and flown home. I think he might have gone via Canada. Anyway, he didn't have a 25 00:01:51,220 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 1: particularly robust social schedule, and whether you want to view that as a repudiation of 26 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: Trump, which is fair, or you can review it as the fact that he's physically just not up to 27 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 1: it, which is also fair. Remember, this guy's 80, so to think that he's in there for the 28 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:09,900 Speaker 1: long haul is probably a stretch. Anyway, the problem we're going to have in China is that 29 00:02:09,900 --> 00:02:15,700 Speaker 1: there's nobody to take over. China's a big place, bigger than the United States. Lots of 30 00:02:15,700 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: people, lots of different geographic sub -regions, and lots of barriers between them. So 31 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:25,460 Speaker 1: historically speaking, China's kind of fallen into two categories. Either it hyper 32 00:02:25,460 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: -centralizes like it is now to the point that the bureaucracy is damaged beyond repair, the 33 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:35,800 Speaker 1: military stops functioning, and eventually this over -centralization leads to a broad 34 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:41,260 Speaker 1: political, economic, and social breakdown, which we're headed for, or the regions grab as 35 00:02:41,260 --> 00:02:47,980 Speaker 1: much autonomy as they can swallow and basically start functioning like independent states. 36 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:53,860 Speaker 1: And eventually you get a widespread civil war where the center tries to reassert control or 37 00:02:53,860 --> 00:02:57,800 Speaker 1: the regions go to war with one another. It's another viable option for where we're headed. 38 00:02:58,380 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 1: The difference this time is because China is so dependent on the rest of the world for the 39 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,300 Speaker 1: inputs for, say, its food supply, but also its manufacturing system, also to keep the 40 00:03:06,300 --> 00:03:12,980 Speaker 1: lights on, we'd be facing a de -industrialization breakdown at the same time. The only way 41 00:03:12,980 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: you might, might, might, might be able to hold that off is to have a strong ruler, somebody 42 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:23,460 Speaker 1: kind of like Xi, who can hold the system together. Here's the problem. Ever since he came 43 00:03:23,460 --> 00:03:28,860 Speaker 1: in 14 years ago now, Xi has gone after those people, put them in prison, executed them, 44 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: exiled them, intimidated them to silence. And so whether you're looking at the educational 45 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:40,060 Speaker 1: system or the media or the business community or the military or the state apparatus, all 46 00:03:40,060 --> 00:03:45,780 Speaker 1: of it has had its teeth ripped out to the point that all it can do is offer milquetoast 47 00:03:45,780 --> 00:03:51,860 Speaker 1: praise of their great leader. So if Xi were to keel over tomorrow, there simply isn't an 48 00:03:51,860 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 1: institution, much less a personality, who could potentially step forward and take over his 49 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:03,420 Speaker 1: role. And even if there was, so much competence has been deliberately bled out of the 50 00:04:03,420 --> 00:04:07,940 Speaker 1: system that whoever this person is probably wouldn't be able to rule competently anyway. 51 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,500 Speaker 1: Think of China as a ball that's been tossed up and it's at that moment at the high. We're 52 00:04:11,500 --> 00:04:14,940 Speaker 1: just kind of rotating and everyone's kind of looking around like, oh shit. Historically 53 00:04:14,940 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 1: speaking, when China loses a ruler who's of the centralized type, it's a generation of 54 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 1: freefall and a civil war and a famine before the system starts to stitch itself back 55 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:32,620 Speaker 1: together. you're doing that today and in backdrop where Chinese industrial dependency and 56 00:04:32,620 --> 00:04:37,840 Speaker 1: agricultural dependency is so huge that the population adjustment conservatively will be 57 00:04:37,840 --> 00:04:43,340 Speaker 1: half the population that assumes it can recover on the other side of this. So the 58 00:04:43,340 --> 00:04:49,380 Speaker 1: leadership issue is just one more problem the Chinese have that they have to deal with over 59 00:04:49,380 --> 00:04:50,700 Speaker 1: the next 20 to 30 years. 60 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:58,660 Speaker 1: the best case scenario is that Xi becomes the new Yeltsin or 61 00:04:58,660 --> 00:05:05,660 Speaker 1: Brezhnev and remains just alive enough that he can be propped up in a chair and 62 00:05:05,660 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: wave to the crowd every once in a while while everything slowly disintegrates around him. 63 00:05:13,460 --> 00:05:18,700 Speaker 1: The problem, of course, is that information control in China is very, very tight. And if we 64 00:05:18,700 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 1: can't get reliable population numbers or GDP numbers, we sure as shit can't get an accurate 65 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:30,660 Speaker 1: read on Xi's health. So all of this is reading between the lines and looking at historical 66 00:05:30,660 --> 00:05:33,820 Speaker 1: examples, and not one of them looks positive.