1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:05,700 Speaker 1: Bitcoin has been consolidating for quite some time and everyone is confused and some even 2 00:00:05,700 --> 00:00:10,040 Speaker 1: believe that this entire bull run has been a massive fake out. But we've just seen 3 00:00:10,040 --> 00:00:14,380 Speaker 1: something very unusual and some even believe that we're moving towards a financial crisis. 4 00:00:14,660 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: In this video, I'm going to give you all the levels I'm watching at, what direction I 5 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:22,920 Speaker 1: expect Bitcoin to go in and the four warning signs that I look at before I reconsider my 6 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,940 Speaker 1: portfolio. So as I said, ladies and gentlemen, Bitcoin has been consolidating for quite a 7 00:00:26,940 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 1: while. It seemingly found a strong level of resistance here at 84 000 which also happens to 8 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: be the point of control of a previous range now more importantly if any of you have been 9 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:41,500 Speaker 1: watching my videos well then you'd know how much i stressed this level as a potential buy 10 00:00:41,500 --> 00:00:45,660 Speaker 1: level i have publicly said on this youtube channel for weeks if not months that everyone 11 00:00:45,660 --> 00:00:49,740 Speaker 1: should be looking at this level as a great time to buy now bitcoin hit this level and then 12 00:00:49,740 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 1: immediately went up over four percent and i don't just talk the talk i walk the walk which 13 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: is exactly why i'm floating four thousand two hundred dollars in profit with my breakeven 14 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 1: level at the same resistance level that has sent bitcoin down bitcoin is right now as you 15 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 1: guys can see struggling at the 60 period moving average which has also been used as 16 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:12,060 Speaker 1: resistance previously however this time it managed to close above and if it can stay above 17 00:01:12,060 --> 00:01:16,740 Speaker 1: that well then i think it highlights that the demand for bitcoin is increasing and later in 18 00:01:16,740 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: this video i'm going to show you something to back that statement up and something that 19 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 1: will likely piss a lot of the bitcoin bears off and right now ladies and gentlemen my 20 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:29,580 Speaker 1: personal exchange blowfin the one i sincerely believe is the best crypto exchange out there 21 00:01:29,580 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 1: is offering my audience ridiculous deposit bonuses so you guys can see here when you 22 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: deposit well then you get free money in return alongside vip one for 30 days entirely for 23 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:46,780 Speaker 1: free the first 300 people that uses my link will also get 10 for free which can turn into a 24 00:01:46,780 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: heck of a lot more so if that's of any interest make sure you check out the link down below 25 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:54,060 Speaker 1: now do i expect bitcoin to go higher from this point forward well let's have a look at 26 00:01:54,060 --> 00:01:57,980 Speaker 1: something that could tell us a little bit more about the direction so first of all i 27 00:01:57,980 --> 00:02:02,900 Speaker 1: mentioned the 80 000 level also because it is a level where a lot of trading took place 28 00:02:02,900 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 1: look at all these green bubbles right here that again represents extremely large orders 29 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: being executed at that very level if we go back you can see that at this wick near 80 or 81 30 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: 000 there's also a lot of trading volume and that's often where price is going to find 31 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:20,860 Speaker 1: support now if we take a look out here to the right you can see that we do have some 32 00:02:20,860 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 1: liquidity mostly around 78 8 ,000. If we scroll up, it's not even comparable to the 33 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:30,860 Speaker 1: liquidity we have towards the upside. I mean, you know, it just keeps going. We have 130, 34 00:02:31,300 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 1: 150, even at $160 ,000, do we have an immense amount of sell orders. And 35 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: again, this can often act as a magnet for price and is again, a massive reason for Bitcoin 36 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:47,820 Speaker 1: to continue higher. But that all depends on the macro environment. Recently, we got an 37 00:02:47,820 --> 00:02:53,260 Speaker 1: inflation report, core CPI, as well as headline CPI. Following that, we got PPI. Now, the 38 00:02:53,260 --> 00:02:59,100 Speaker 1: inflation itself came in at 3 .7, forecasted at 3 .6, which again was expected given the 39 00:02:59,100 --> 00:03:03,060 Speaker 1: higher oil prices. But what surprised a lot of people was the core inflation that came in 40 00:03:03,060 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: at 2 .6, expected at 2 .5. This can suggest that inflation is spreading beyond energy, 41 00:03:08,980 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 1: which can eventually lead to the Fed becoming increasingly hawkish, which can be incredibly 42 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: bearish for Bitcoin. But something very interesting happened because as we got that 43 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 1: negative report regarding inflation, the October rate hike odds are now pretty much the 44 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:27,360 Speaker 1: lowest I have ever seen at 16%. And I know a lot of people are looking at this number in 45 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:32,300 Speaker 1: December and thinking, what in the world? We're basically guaranteed a rate hike in 46 00:03:32,300 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 1: December, but that depends entirely on the response that we get during the October meeting. 47 00:03:37,620 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: So I would not personally take this as a definitive outcome until we have seen the Federal 48 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:47,500 Speaker 1: Reserve meeting in October. There's still a chance that oil can stabilize enough throughout 49 00:03:47,500 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: October and November before the December meeting that could significantly impact the rate 50 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:57,020 Speaker 1: hike probabilities. And we've just gotten a headline that makes this significantly more 51 00:03:57,020 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: probable. You see, oil prices slipped from a five -month high on Monday as investors took 52 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: profits after US President Donald Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia that may 53 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: lead to more Russian fuel exports. So again, this could provide some relief for energy, 54 00:04:11,900 --> 00:04:16,700 Speaker 1: which will inevitably benefit the U .S. economy. Now, do not get me wrong. Oil is still 55 00:04:16,700 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 1: severely elevated here at $107, but we can only hope that this is going to send it down 56 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:25,980 Speaker 1: further. And again, oil has recently reached the high, which previously sent it down quite 57 00:04:25,980 --> 00:04:29,780 Speaker 1: a bit. So we can only hope that the exact same thing is going to happen now. What I'm 58 00:04:29,780 --> 00:04:33,780 Speaker 1: specifically paying attention to is this trend line, because that has held up extremely 59 00:04:33,780 --> 00:04:38,500 Speaker 1: well with an oil. And I think if we break this alongside the 50 period moving average, 60 00:04:38,700 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 1: well, then there's a good chance oil is seeing a change in sentiment now regarding bitcoin 61 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:47,840 Speaker 1: itself we've recently seen a pullback and i also told you that that was incredibly probable 62 00:04:47,840 --> 00:04:54,100 Speaker 1: because even in very bullish markets you are going to get rebalances specifically towards 63 00:04:54,100 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 1: equilibrium now what happened when price reached 50 of the range well again it used that as 64 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:05,500 Speaker 1: a massive support level which is a great sign that what we've just seen is nothing more 65 00:05:05,500 --> 00:05:10,340 Speaker 1: than a rebalance towards a discount before it then continues its bull run which is a very, 66 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 1: very normal market behavior. If we can get significant displacement above this point of 67 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:19,500 Speaker 1: control, well, then I think it highlights the demand for Bitcoin. It also highlights that 68 00:05:19,500 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: the bulls are now back in control. And so the point of control at about, you know, $84 ,000 69 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: alongside the 200 simple moving average at $83 ,000 is my points of interest. 70 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:35,580 Speaker 1: If we can manage to close above both, well, then I think that the Bitcoin bull run is going 71 00:05:35,580 --> 00:05:39,580 Speaker 1: to continue and the bulls are now back in control. Now something recently happened that 72 00:05:39,580 --> 00:05:44,540 Speaker 1: almost nobody saw coming and that was the 10 -year yield reversing completely. So we hit a 73 00:05:44,540 --> 00:05:49,540 Speaker 1: high that I had called out on this YouTube channel at about 2 .3 % and it obviously found a 74 00:05:49,540 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: level of resistance and it has now pulled back a total of 6%. Now this here is great news. 75 00:05:56,180 --> 00:06:00,720 Speaker 1: Some people will argue that the reason the yields went down are not beneficial to Bitcoin 76 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: but I fundamentally disagree because the lower the yield regardless of reason the lower the 77 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:09,840 Speaker 1: returns they are going to provide which means bitcoin becomes relatively more attractive 78 00:06:09,840 --> 00:06:14,700 Speaker 1: what i'm watching for next is of course the consolidation or area of balance price action 79 00:06:14,700 --> 00:06:19,460 Speaker 1: right here which obviously acts as some sort of level of support i want to see this get 80 00:06:19,460 --> 00:06:24,420 Speaker 1: violated and then following that ideally we see a violation of the 50 simple moving average 81 00:06:24,420 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 1: but later in this video you'll understand why it is so crucial that we are now seeing a 82 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,600 Speaker 1: reversal within the 10 -year yield and i mentioned that i was going to show you something 83 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: that was very likely going to piss Bitcoin bears off and something that would support my 84 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:41,860 Speaker 1: statement of higher prices within Bitcoin. Now that is the COT report we received on 85 00:06:41,860 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 1: Friday. So if you've been watching this channel, you know that leverage funds have been 86 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:51,700 Speaker 1: incredibly bearish pretty much since 2024. But you guys can see that over the last couple 87 00:06:51,700 --> 00:06:56,740 Speaker 1: of months, they have become increasingly more bullish. Sure, we've seen these sort of dips 88 00:06:56,740 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: here, but the most recent reports have all been positive, right? You can see that they 89 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:08,180 Speaker 1: added 1 ,008. That is not something we've seen from leveraged funds. And so it is 90 00:07:08,180 --> 00:07:12,460 Speaker 1: incredibly significant when we do see that because it signals that they are now shifting 91 00:07:12,460 --> 00:07:18,900 Speaker 1: from bearish to bullish. We've also seen asset managers once again add 110 and they are of 92 00:07:18,900 --> 00:07:23,260 Speaker 1: course net long still and leveraged funds of course continue to remain net short, but 93 00:07:23,260 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 1: overall they are becoming increasingly more bullish. So is this a bullish sign in terms of 94 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:32,420 Speaker 1: positioning? Absolutely. And this is one of the most important pieces of data to look at 95 00:07:32,420 --> 00:07:37,020 Speaker 1: when trying to determine long -term direction within any asset. Now, something we can add 96 00:07:37,020 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 1: on top of that, on top of the bullish positioning, is what we're looking at here. Long 97 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:45,420 Speaker 1: -term holder losses have eased well off their cycle peak. So you guys can see that these 98 00:07:45,420 --> 00:07:51,380 Speaker 1: massive peaks within long -term holder losses often peak right before a massive bull run, 99 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:56,620 Speaker 1: and this cycle is no different. In fact, we are seeing this signal much, much stronger 100 00:07:56,620 --> 00:08:01,580 Speaker 1: relative to something like 2019 and And it's comparable to last cycle, which is, by the 101 00:08:01,580 --> 00:08:05,420 Speaker 1: way, the only cycle that I would ever compare today's price action to. And so overall 102 00:08:05,420 --> 00:08:10,020 Speaker 1: speaking, this is a great sign that the Bitcoin bull run is actually here, regardless of 103 00:08:10,020 --> 00:08:15,180 Speaker 1: what bears might be saying on CT. That being said, right, there are multiple indicators 104 00:08:15,180 --> 00:08:19,620 Speaker 1: highlighting that this is almost certainly a sentiment shift within the higher time frame, 105 00:08:19,820 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: one being what we're looking at here. So the indicator up top is a trend indicator, and you 106 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:28,580 Speaker 1: guys can see a clear pattern. Bitcoin closes above the 200 simple moving average, the 107 00:08:28,580 --> 00:08:34,140 Speaker 1: momentum indicator shift from negative to positive, and the momentum really starts picking 108 00:08:34,140 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: up when the RSI goes above the threshold of 70, which most people take as a, you know, a 109 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: bearish signal. But history shows us that this is in fact when bull markets really pick up. 110 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:48,200 Speaker 1: We saw it again last cycle, Bitcoin closed above the 200 simple moving average, the 111 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 1: indicator flipped from negative to positive, and the momentum really started to pick up 112 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:57,740 Speaker 1: once the RSI you know entered the overbought area and we have seen the exact same pattern 113 00:08:57,740 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: this cycle Bitcoin closed above the 200 simple moving average right the indicator flipped 114 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: from negative to positive the only thing we're missing is the RSI moving above the 115 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:12,300 Speaker 1: threshold of 70 but if we compare what we're seeing now to last cycle well then that is not 116 00:09:12,300 --> 00:09:18,100 Speaker 1: unusual you guys can see that it took this entire consolidation before the RSI eventually 117 00:09:18,100 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 1: crossed into overbought which again highlighted the momentum. And so what we're seeing 118 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:29,260 Speaker 1: right now is obviously very similar to the consolidation we saw here in 2023, which means 119 00:09:29,260 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: towards the end of this consolidation, we could anticipate that the RSI moves above 70, the 120 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 1: momentum within Bitcoin starts picking up, and the bull run really begins. And lastly, not 121 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: the entire macro environment is negative. Of course, when we're talking about inflation, 122 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:49,580 Speaker 1: yes, it looks negative. But there are other things that we can look at, which is indeed 123 00:09:49,580 --> 00:09:54,300 Speaker 1: suggesting the opposite for example the copper gold ratio which is the the ratio you're 124 00:09:54,300 --> 00:09:59,540 Speaker 1: seeing up here every single bull run without fail this bottomed and it went higher right it 125 00:09:59,540 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: happened in 2020 it happened in 2017 and it is happening right now the copper gold ratio 126 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:11,180 Speaker 1: has bottomed it is starting to move higher but more importantly it is doing so as the ism 127 00:10:11,180 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 1: pmi is expanding bitcoin has also bottomed at the electrical cost, which has historically 128 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 1: been where Bitcoin has bottomed every single bull run, right? And if we want to draw a 129 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: comparison to 2020, well, then we can also see that it had one initial test, then went 130 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:32,220 Speaker 1: higher, had another test, and then the bull run started. Very similar to what we're seeing 131 00:10:32,220 --> 00:10:37,440 Speaker 1: now, right? We had the initial test, went higher, another test, and now we can anticipate 132 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,300 Speaker 1: that the bull run is finally starting. So do I think Bitcoin is still within a bull run? 133 00:10:41,420 --> 00:10:46,220 Speaker 1: And can we expect upside? Yes, absolutely. But there are certain things that everyone needs 134 00:10:46,220 --> 00:10:50,700 Speaker 1: to watch out for, regardless of you caring about cryptocurrency or equities. So when we're 135 00:10:50,700 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 1: talking about a financial crisis, there are a few things that I'm paying very, very close 136 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: attention to ones that have saved me before. Number one, credit spreads, but more 137 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:04,580 Speaker 1: importantly, the HYOS, which has already started to expand, right? It bottomed at 260. It's 138 00:11:04,580 --> 00:11:10,460 Speaker 1: now sitting at 3 .23. And if this starts moving towards 5%, that signals extreme stress. 139 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:14,860 Speaker 1: And it is a signal that we should all take incredibly serious. That's number one, right? 140 00:11:14,980 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 1: The credit spreads exceeding 5%. Now number two is the 10 year yield moving above the 141 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 1: threshold of 5 .5%. When the 10 year yield is trading between 5 .5 and 6%, I consider that 142 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:31,580 Speaker 1: my danger zone. That is when I seriously start paying attention number three inflation 143 00:11:31,580 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: exceeding earnings if inflation starts outpacing the average hourly earnings i consider 144 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: that a massive warning sign and we're actually seeing that right now but on its own i don't 145 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:46,060 Speaker 1: consider that a massive warning sign and it's not something that would make me reconsider 146 00:11:46,060 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 1: my portfolio but if it happens alongside the other things that i've just talked about well 147 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:55,780 Speaker 1: then that is exactly when we should worry the last thing i look at is the VIX, the S &P 500 148 00:11:55,780 --> 00:12:00,460 Speaker 1: Volatility Index. This is the last of the indicators, and it's not something that has to 149 00:12:00,460 --> 00:12:05,580 Speaker 1: happen, but it is something that you can look at to measure when this financial crisis will 150 00:12:05,580 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: hit equities. And of course, you can connect that to Bitcoin too. So to determine whether a 151 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:14,180 Speaker 1: financial crisis is approaching, look at the three I showed you, the credit spreads, the 152 00:12:14,180 --> 00:12:18,100 Speaker 1: average hourly earnings versus inflation, as well as the 10 -year yield. And to confirm 153 00:12:18,100 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: when we can expect this to negatively impact Bitcoin, look at the VIX. 154 00:12:23,420 --> 00:12:27,420 Speaker 1: so ladies and gentlemen i sincerely hope you enjoyed this video and you now know a lot more 155 00:12:27,420 --> 00:12:31,940 Speaker 1: about what i personally believe about bitcoin again can we see short -term downside within 156 00:12:31,940 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: bitcoin yes i believe worst worst worst case scenario for bitcoin this cycle is seventy two 157 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:41,260 Speaker 1: thousand five hundred dollars or at least in that region but overall i remain cautiously 158 00:12:41,260 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 1: bullish and you now know the exact warning signs that i am personally looking for when it 159 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:50,740 Speaker 1: comes to a financial crisis and when we should start reconsidering our portfolios if you 160 00:12:50,740 --> 00:12:54,540 Speaker 1: enjoyed this video make sure to like it subscribe to the channel maybe even leave a comment 161 00:12:54,540 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 1: if you want to join my free trading group well then you can find a link for that down below 162 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:01,660 Speaker 1: and without further ado ladies and gentlemen i appreciate every single one of you and i 163 00:13:01,660 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 1: hope to see you within my next video