Bitcoin Just Tricked Every Investor... And An Opportunity Like This Won't Come Again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIKXQlEo9B4
Language: en | ASR: large-v3-turbo @ 0a363e9161cbc7ed1431c9597a8ceaf0c4f78fcf

[00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:05.700] Speaker 1: Bitcoin has been consolidating for quite some time and everyone is confused and some even
[00:00:05.700 --> 00:00:10.040] Speaker 1: believe that this entire bull run has been a massive fake out. But we've just seen
[00:00:10.040 --> 00:00:14.380] Speaker 1: something very unusual and some even believe that we're moving towards a financial crisis.
[00:00:14.660 --> 00:00:18.000] Speaker 1: In this video, I'm going to give you all the levels I'm watching at, what direction I
[00:00:18.000 --> 00:00:22.920] Speaker 1: expect Bitcoin to go in and the four warning signs that I look at before I reconsider my
[00:00:22.920 --> 00:00:26.940] Speaker 1: portfolio. So as I said, ladies and gentlemen, Bitcoin has been consolidating for quite a
[00:00:26.940 --> 00:00:32.960] Speaker 1: while. It seemingly found a strong level of resistance here at 84 000 which also happens to
[00:00:32.960 --> 00:00:36.680] Speaker 1: be the point of control of a previous range now more importantly if any of you have been
[00:00:36.680 --> 00:00:41.500] Speaker 1: watching my videos well then you'd know how much i stressed this level as a potential buy
[00:00:41.500 --> 00:00:45.660] Speaker 1: level i have publicly said on this youtube channel for weeks if not months that everyone
[00:00:45.660 --> 00:00:49.740] Speaker 1: should be looking at this level as a great time to buy now bitcoin hit this level and then
[00:00:49.740 --> 00:00:54.520] Speaker 1: immediately went up over four percent and i don't just talk the talk i walk the walk which
[00:00:54.520 --> 00:00:58.360] Speaker 1: is exactly why i'm floating four thousand two hundred dollars in profit with my breakeven
[00:00:58.360 --> 00:01:03.080] Speaker 1: level at the same resistance level that has sent bitcoin down bitcoin is right now as you
[00:01:03.080 --> 00:01:07.640] Speaker 1: guys can see struggling at the 60 period moving average which has also been used as
[00:01:07.640 --> 00:01:12.060] Speaker 1: resistance previously however this time it managed to close above and if it can stay above
[00:01:12.060 --> 00:01:16.740] Speaker 1: that well then i think it highlights that the demand for bitcoin is increasing and later in
[00:01:16.740 --> 00:01:20.600] Speaker 1: this video i'm going to show you something to back that statement up and something that
[00:01:20.600 --> 00:01:24.760] Speaker 1: will likely piss a lot of the bitcoin bears off and right now ladies and gentlemen my
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[00:01:50.520 --> 00:01:54.060] Speaker 1: now do i expect bitcoin to go higher from this point forward well let's have a look at
[00:01:54.060 --> 00:01:57.980] Speaker 1: something that could tell us a little bit more about the direction so first of all i
[00:01:57.980 --> 00:02:02.900] Speaker 1: mentioned the 80 000 level also because it is a level where a lot of trading took place
[00:02:02.900 --> 00:02:07.480] Speaker 1: look at all these green bubbles right here that again represents extremely large orders
[00:02:07.480 --> 00:02:12.720] Speaker 1: being executed at that very level if we go back you can see that at this wick near 80 or 81
[00:02:12.720 --> 00:02:17.400] Speaker 1: 000 there's also a lot of trading volume and that's often where price is going to find
[00:02:17.400 --> 00:02:20.860] Speaker 1: support now if we take a look out here to the right you can see that we do have some
[00:02:20.860 --> 00:02:26.800] Speaker 1: liquidity mostly around 78 8 ,000. If we scroll up, it's not even comparable to the
[00:02:26.800 --> 00:02:30.860] Speaker 1: liquidity we have towards the upside. I mean, you know, it just keeps going. We have 130,
[00:02:31.300 --> 00:02:38.120] Speaker 1: 150, even at $160 ,000, do we have an immense amount of sell orders. And
[00:02:38.120 --> 00:02:43.440] Speaker 1: again, this can often act as a magnet for price and is again, a massive reason for Bitcoin
[00:02:43.440 --> 00:02:47.820] Speaker 1: to continue higher. But that all depends on the macro environment. Recently, we got an
[00:02:47.820 --> 00:02:53.260] Speaker 1: inflation report, core CPI, as well as headline CPI. Following that, we got PPI. Now, the
[00:02:53.260 --> 00:02:59.100] Speaker 1: inflation itself came in at 3 .7, forecasted at 3 .6, which again was expected given the
[00:02:59.100 --> 00:03:03.060] Speaker 1: higher oil prices. But what surprised a lot of people was the core inflation that came in
[00:03:03.060 --> 00:03:08.760] Speaker 1: at 2 .6, expected at 2 .5. This can suggest that inflation is spreading beyond energy,
[00:03:08.980 --> 00:03:13.400] Speaker 1: which can eventually lead to the Fed becoming increasingly hawkish, which can be incredibly
[00:03:13.400 --> 00:03:17.520] Speaker 1: bearish for Bitcoin. But something very interesting happened because as we got that
[00:03:17.520 --> 00:03:22.760] Speaker 1: negative report regarding inflation, the October rate hike odds are now pretty much the
[00:03:22.760 --> 00:03:27.360] Speaker 1: lowest I have ever seen at 16%. And I know a lot of people are looking at this number in
[00:03:27.360 --> 00:03:32.300] Speaker 1: December and thinking, what in the world? We're basically guaranteed a rate hike in
[00:03:32.300 --> 00:03:37.600] Speaker 1: December, but that depends entirely on the response that we get during the October meeting.
[00:03:37.620 --> 00:03:42.840] Speaker 1: So I would not personally take this as a definitive outcome until we have seen the Federal
[00:03:42.840 --> 00:03:47.500] Speaker 1: Reserve meeting in October. There's still a chance that oil can stabilize enough throughout
[00:03:47.500 --> 00:03:52.440] Speaker 1: October and November before the December meeting that could significantly impact the rate
[00:03:52.440 --> 00:03:57.020] Speaker 1: hike probabilities. And we've just gotten a headline that makes this significantly more
[00:03:57.020 --> 00:04:01.960] Speaker 1: probable. You see, oil prices slipped from a five -month high on Monday as investors took
[00:04:01.960 --> 00:04:07.040] Speaker 1: profits after US President Donald Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia that may
[00:04:07.040 --> 00:04:11.680] Speaker 1: lead to more Russian fuel exports. So again, this could provide some relief for energy,
[00:04:11.900 --> 00:04:16.700] Speaker 1: which will inevitably benefit the U .S. economy. Now, do not get me wrong. Oil is still
[00:04:16.700 --> 00:04:21.240] Speaker 1: severely elevated here at $107, but we can only hope that this is going to send it down
[00:04:21.240 --> 00:04:25.980] Speaker 1: further. And again, oil has recently reached the high, which previously sent it down quite
[00:04:25.980 --> 00:04:29.780] Speaker 1: a bit. So we can only hope that the exact same thing is going to happen now. What I'm
[00:04:29.780 --> 00:04:33.780] Speaker 1: specifically paying attention to is this trend line, because that has held up extremely
[00:04:33.780 --> 00:04:38.500] Speaker 1: well with an oil. And I think if we break this alongside the 50 period moving average,
[00:04:38.700 --> 00:04:43.160] Speaker 1: well, then there's a good chance oil is seeing a change in sentiment now regarding bitcoin
[00:04:43.160 --> 00:04:47.840] Speaker 1: itself we've recently seen a pullback and i also told you that that was incredibly probable
[00:04:47.840 --> 00:04:54.100] Speaker 1: because even in very bullish markets you are going to get rebalances specifically towards
[00:04:54.100 --> 00:05:00.080] Speaker 1: equilibrium now what happened when price reached 50 of the range well again it used that as
[00:05:00.080 --> 00:05:05.500] Speaker 1: a massive support level which is a great sign that what we've just seen is nothing more
[00:05:05.500 --> 00:05:10.340] Speaker 1: than a rebalance towards a discount before it then continues its bull run which is a very,
[00:05:10.480 --> 00:05:15.240] Speaker 1: very normal market behavior. If we can get significant displacement above this point of
[00:05:15.240 --> 00:05:19.500] Speaker 1: control, well, then I think it highlights the demand for Bitcoin. It also highlights that
[00:05:19.500 --> 00:05:24.760] Speaker 1: the bulls are now back in control. And so the point of control at about, you know, $84 ,000
[00:05:24.760 --> 00:05:31.440] Speaker 1: alongside the 200 simple moving average at $83 ,000 is my points of interest.
[00:05:31.440 --> 00:05:35.580] Speaker 1: If we can manage to close above both, well, then I think that the Bitcoin bull run is going
[00:05:35.580 --> 00:05:39.580] Speaker 1: to continue and the bulls are now back in control. Now something recently happened that
[00:05:39.580 --> 00:05:44.540] Speaker 1: almost nobody saw coming and that was the 10 -year yield reversing completely. So we hit a
[00:05:44.540 --> 00:05:49.540] Speaker 1: high that I had called out on this YouTube channel at about 2 .3 % and it obviously found a
[00:05:49.540 --> 00:05:56.000] Speaker 1: level of resistance and it has now pulled back a total of 6%. Now this here is great news.
[00:05:56.180 --> 00:06:00.720] Speaker 1: Some people will argue that the reason the yields went down are not beneficial to Bitcoin
[00:06:00.720 --> 00:06:05.200] Speaker 1: but I fundamentally disagree because the lower the yield regardless of reason the lower the
[00:06:05.200 --> 00:06:09.840] Speaker 1: returns they are going to provide which means bitcoin becomes relatively more attractive
[00:06:09.840 --> 00:06:14.700] Speaker 1: what i'm watching for next is of course the consolidation or area of balance price action
[00:06:14.700 --> 00:06:19.460] Speaker 1: right here which obviously acts as some sort of level of support i want to see this get
[00:06:19.460 --> 00:06:24.420] Speaker 1: violated and then following that ideally we see a violation of the 50 simple moving average
[00:06:24.420 --> 00:06:29.000] Speaker 1: but later in this video you'll understand why it is so crucial that we are now seeing a
[00:06:29.000 --> 00:06:32.600] Speaker 1: reversal within the 10 -year yield and i mentioned that i was going to show you something
[00:06:32.600 --> 00:06:37.120] Speaker 1: that was very likely going to piss Bitcoin bears off and something that would support my
[00:06:37.120 --> 00:06:41.860] Speaker 1: statement of higher prices within Bitcoin. Now that is the COT report we received on
[00:06:41.860 --> 00:06:45.960] Speaker 1: Friday. So if you've been watching this channel, you know that leverage funds have been
[00:06:45.960 --> 00:06:51.700] Speaker 1: incredibly bearish pretty much since 2024. But you guys can see that over the last couple
[00:06:51.700 --> 00:06:56.740] Speaker 1: of months, they have become increasingly more bullish. Sure, we've seen these sort of dips
[00:06:56.740 --> 00:07:02.200] Speaker 1: here, but the most recent reports have all been positive, right? You can see that they
[00:07:02.200 --> 00:07:08.180] Speaker 1: added 1 ,008. That is not something we've seen from leveraged funds. And so it is
[00:07:08.180 --> 00:07:12.460] Speaker 1: incredibly significant when we do see that because it signals that they are now shifting
[00:07:12.460 --> 00:07:18.900] Speaker 1: from bearish to bullish. We've also seen asset managers once again add 110 and they are of
[00:07:18.900 --> 00:07:23.260] Speaker 1: course net long still and leveraged funds of course continue to remain net short, but
[00:07:23.260 --> 00:07:27.920] Speaker 1: overall they are becoming increasingly more bullish. So is this a bullish sign in terms of
[00:07:27.920 --> 00:07:32.420] Speaker 1: positioning? Absolutely. And this is one of the most important pieces of data to look at
[00:07:32.420 --> 00:07:37.020] Speaker 1: when trying to determine long -term direction within any asset. Now, something we can add
[00:07:37.020 --> 00:07:41.120] Speaker 1: on top of that, on top of the bullish positioning, is what we're looking at here. Long
[00:07:41.120 --> 00:07:45.420] Speaker 1: -term holder losses have eased well off their cycle peak. So you guys can see that these
[00:07:45.420 --> 00:07:51.380] Speaker 1: massive peaks within long -term holder losses often peak right before a massive bull run,
[00:07:51.400 --> 00:07:56.620] Speaker 1: and this cycle is no different. In fact, we are seeing this signal much, much stronger
[00:07:56.620 --> 00:08:01.580] Speaker 1: relative to something like 2019 and And it's comparable to last cycle, which is, by the
[00:08:01.580 --> 00:08:05.420] Speaker 1: way, the only cycle that I would ever compare today's price action to. And so overall
[00:08:05.420 --> 00:08:10.020] Speaker 1: speaking, this is a great sign that the Bitcoin bull run is actually here, regardless of
[00:08:10.020 --> 00:08:15.180] Speaker 1: what bears might be saying on CT. That being said, right, there are multiple indicators
[00:08:15.180 --> 00:08:19.620] Speaker 1: highlighting that this is almost certainly a sentiment shift within the higher time frame,
[00:08:19.820 --> 00:08:24.680] Speaker 1: one being what we're looking at here. So the indicator up top is a trend indicator, and you
[00:08:24.680 --> 00:08:28.580] Speaker 1: guys can see a clear pattern. Bitcoin closes above the 200 simple moving average, the
[00:08:28.580 --> 00:08:34.140] Speaker 1: momentum indicator shift from negative to positive, and the momentum really starts picking
[00:08:34.140 --> 00:08:40.240] Speaker 1: up when the RSI goes above the threshold of 70, which most people take as a, you know, a
[00:08:40.240 --> 00:08:44.480] Speaker 1: bearish signal. But history shows us that this is in fact when bull markets really pick up.
[00:08:44.600 --> 00:08:48.200] Speaker 1: We saw it again last cycle, Bitcoin closed above the 200 simple moving average, the
[00:08:48.200 --> 00:08:52.360] Speaker 1: indicator flipped from negative to positive, and the momentum really started to pick up
[00:08:52.360 --> 00:08:57.740] Speaker 1: once the RSI you know entered the overbought area and we have seen the exact same pattern
[00:08:57.740 --> 00:09:01.760] Speaker 1: this cycle Bitcoin closed above the 200 simple moving average right the indicator flipped
[00:09:01.760 --> 00:09:07.160] Speaker 1: from negative to positive the only thing we're missing is the RSI moving above the
[00:09:07.160 --> 00:09:12.300] Speaker 1: threshold of 70 but if we compare what we're seeing now to last cycle well then that is not
[00:09:12.300 --> 00:09:18.100] Speaker 1: unusual you guys can see that it took this entire consolidation before the RSI eventually
[00:09:18.100 --> 00:09:22.920] Speaker 1: crossed into overbought which again highlighted the momentum. And so what we're seeing
[00:09:22.920 --> 00:09:29.260] Speaker 1: right now is obviously very similar to the consolidation we saw here in 2023, which means
[00:09:29.260 --> 00:09:34.640] Speaker 1: towards the end of this consolidation, we could anticipate that the RSI moves above 70, the
[00:09:34.640 --> 00:09:39.600] Speaker 1: momentum within Bitcoin starts picking up, and the bull run really begins. And lastly, not
[00:09:39.600 --> 00:09:44.480] Speaker 1: the entire macro environment is negative. Of course, when we're talking about inflation,
[00:09:44.800 --> 00:09:49.580] Speaker 1: yes, it looks negative. But there are other things that we can look at, which is indeed
[00:09:49.580 --> 00:09:54.300] Speaker 1: suggesting the opposite for example the copper gold ratio which is the the ratio you're
[00:09:54.300 --> 00:09:59.540] Speaker 1: seeing up here every single bull run without fail this bottomed and it went higher right it
[00:09:59.540 --> 00:10:06.000] Speaker 1: happened in 2020 it happened in 2017 and it is happening right now the copper gold ratio
[00:10:06.000 --> 00:10:11.180] Speaker 1: has bottomed it is starting to move higher but more importantly it is doing so as the ism
[00:10:11.180 --> 00:10:17.440] Speaker 1: pmi is expanding bitcoin has also bottomed at the electrical cost, which has historically
[00:10:17.440 --> 00:10:22.720] Speaker 1: been where Bitcoin has bottomed every single bull run, right? And if we want to draw a
[00:10:22.720 --> 00:10:27.800] Speaker 1: comparison to 2020, well, then we can also see that it had one initial test, then went
[00:10:27.800 --> 00:10:32.220] Speaker 1: higher, had another test, and then the bull run started. Very similar to what we're seeing
[00:10:32.220 --> 00:10:37.440] Speaker 1: now, right? We had the initial test, went higher, another test, and now we can anticipate
[00:10:37.440 --> 00:10:41.300] Speaker 1: that the bull run is finally starting. So do I think Bitcoin is still within a bull run?
[00:10:41.420 --> 00:10:46.220] Speaker 1: And can we expect upside? Yes, absolutely. But there are certain things that everyone needs
[00:10:46.220 --> 00:10:50.700] Speaker 1: to watch out for, regardless of you caring about cryptocurrency or equities. So when we're
[00:10:50.700 --> 00:10:54.640] Speaker 1: talking about a financial crisis, there are a few things that I'm paying very, very close
[00:10:54.640 --> 00:10:58.800] Speaker 1: attention to ones that have saved me before. Number one, credit spreads, but more
[00:10:58.800 --> 00:11:04.580] Speaker 1: importantly, the HYOS, which has already started to expand, right? It bottomed at 260. It's
[00:11:04.580 --> 00:11:10.460] Speaker 1: now sitting at 3 .23. And if this starts moving towards 5%, that signals extreme stress.
[00:11:10.520 --> 00:11:14.860] Speaker 1: And it is a signal that we should all take incredibly serious. That's number one, right?
[00:11:14.980 --> 00:11:19.880] Speaker 1: The credit spreads exceeding 5%. Now number two is the 10 year yield moving above the
[00:11:19.880 --> 00:11:26.840] Speaker 1: threshold of 5 .5%. When the 10 year yield is trading between 5 .5 and 6%, I consider that
[00:11:26.840 --> 00:11:31.580] Speaker 1: my danger zone. That is when I seriously start paying attention number three inflation
[00:11:31.580 --> 00:11:37.400] Speaker 1: exceeding earnings if inflation starts outpacing the average hourly earnings i consider
[00:11:37.400 --> 00:11:42.000] Speaker 1: that a massive warning sign and we're actually seeing that right now but on its own i don't
[00:11:42.000 --> 00:11:46.060] Speaker 1: consider that a massive warning sign and it's not something that would make me reconsider
[00:11:46.060 --> 00:11:50.360] Speaker 1: my portfolio but if it happens alongside the other things that i've just talked about well
[00:11:50.360 --> 00:11:55.780] Speaker 1: then that is exactly when we should worry the last thing i look at is the VIX, the S &P 500
[00:11:55.780 --> 00:12:00.460] Speaker 1: Volatility Index. This is the last of the indicators, and it's not something that has to
[00:12:00.460 --> 00:12:05.580] Speaker 1: happen, but it is something that you can look at to measure when this financial crisis will
[00:12:05.580 --> 00:12:10.360] Speaker 1: hit equities. And of course, you can connect that to Bitcoin too. So to determine whether a
[00:12:10.360 --> 00:12:14.180] Speaker 1: financial crisis is approaching, look at the three I showed you, the credit spreads, the
[00:12:14.180 --> 00:12:18.100] Speaker 1: average hourly earnings versus inflation, as well as the 10 -year yield. And to confirm
[00:12:18.100 --> 00:12:22.160] Speaker 1: when we can expect this to negatively impact Bitcoin, look at the VIX.
[00:12:23.420 --> 00:12:27.420] Speaker 1: so ladies and gentlemen i sincerely hope you enjoyed this video and you now know a lot more
[00:12:27.420 --> 00:12:31.940] Speaker 1: about what i personally believe about bitcoin again can we see short -term downside within
[00:12:31.940 --> 00:12:37.120] Speaker 1: bitcoin yes i believe worst worst worst case scenario for bitcoin this cycle is seventy two
[00:12:37.120 --> 00:12:41.260] Speaker 1: thousand five hundred dollars or at least in that region but overall i remain cautiously
[00:12:41.260 --> 00:12:45.720] Speaker 1: bullish and you now know the exact warning signs that i am personally looking for when it
[00:12:45.720 --> 00:12:50.740] Speaker 1: comes to a financial crisis and when we should start reconsidering our portfolios if you
[00:12:50.740 --> 00:12:54.540] Speaker 1: enjoyed this video make sure to like it subscribe to the channel maybe even leave a comment
[00:12:54.540 --> 00:12:58.080] Speaker 1: if you want to join my free trading group well then you can find a link for that down below
[00:12:58.080 --> 00:13:01.660] Speaker 1: and without further ado ladies and gentlemen i appreciate every single one of you and i
[00:13:01.660 --> 00:13:03.560] Speaker 1: hope to see you within my next video