The 4-year crypto cycle is dead...
The halving, ETF flows, and macroeconomics
Speaker 1: 00:00
Bitcoin's four-year cycle is dead, and the math proves it. The whole cycle was built on one thing: the halving. Every four years, new supply gets cut in half, and price used to explode.
But look at what the last halving actually did. It removed 450 Bitcoin a day. At today's price, that's about $37 million. Now compare that to the ETFs. On their biggest day, they pulled in $1.37 billion. That's 37 times more than the halving's entire daily effect in one session.
Bar chart comparing $37M for “Halving · 1 day” with $1.37B for “ETFs · 1 day,” displaying the speaker's 37× comparison (00:29).So the halving didn't disappear; it just got drowned out. Bitcoin isn't driven by its issuing schedule anymore. It's driven by institutions, liquidity, and the Fed, just like every other macro asset.
And yes, the last top still landed relatively close to schedule. But if you're waiting for the calendar to tell you when to buy and sell, you're waiting for the wrong thing.
If you want to know more about how to incorporate macroeconomics, well then I have a completely free trading group in my bio.