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Now, to some degree, the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 98.41, "end": 98.79, "word": " 80", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 98.79, "end": 99.15, "word": "%", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 99.15, "end": 99.69, "word": " chance", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 99.69, "end": 100.29, "word": " the", "probability": 0.765625 }, { "start": 100.29, "end": 100.55, "word": " Fed", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 100.55, "end": 100.73, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 100.73, "end": 100.83, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 100.83, "end": 100.93, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 100.93, "end": 101.23, "word": " hold", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 101.23, "end": 101.67, "word": " rates", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 101.67, "end": 102.21, "word": " steady.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 102.45, "end": 102.99, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 103.21, "end": 103.85, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 103.85, "end": 104.23, "word": " some", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 104.23, "end": 104.65, "word": " degree,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 104.97, "end": 105.19, "word": " the", "probability": 0.998046875 } ] }, { "start": 105.19, "end": 110.55, "text": "market is obviously the market today is different than 2018. I'm not trying to imply that", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 105.19, "end": 105.47, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 105.47, "end": 105.77, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 105.77, "end": 106.27, "word": " obviously", "probability": 0.787109375 }, { "start": 106.27, "end": 106.49, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 106.49, "end": 106.77, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 106.77, "end": 107.19, "word": " today", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 107.19, "end": 107.65, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 107.65, "end": 108.09, "word": " different", "probability": 0.970703125 }, { "start": 108.09, "end": 108.41, "word": " than", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 108.41, "end": 108.91, "word": " 2018.", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 108.91, "end": 109.29, "word": " I'm", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 109.29, "end": 109.45, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 109.45, "end": 109.81, "word": " trying", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 109.81, "end": 110.03, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 110.03, "end": 110.31, "word": " imply", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 110.31, "end": 110.55, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 110.55, "end": 117.19, "text": "it's the same. But to some degree, this does in feel like deja vu from", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 110.55, "end": 110.75, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 110.75, "end": 110.87, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 110.87, "end": 111.21, "word": " same.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 111.35, "end": 111.89, "word": " But", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 111.89, "end": 112.11, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 112.11, "end": 112.37, "word": " some", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 112.37, "end": 112.73, "word": " degree,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 112.95, "end": 113.55, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 113.55, "end": 113.85, "word": " does", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 113.85, "end": 114.13, "word": " in", "probability": 0.7119140625 }, { "start": 114.13, "end": 114.47, "word": " feel", "probability": 0.00019097328186035156 }, { "start": 114.47, "end": 115.57, "word": " like", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 115.57, "end": 115.93, "word": " deja", "probability": 0.7880859375 }, { "start": 115.93, "end": 116.29, "word": " vu", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 116.29, "end": 117.19, "word": " from", "probability": 0.99462890625 } ] }, { "start": 117.19, "end": 124.01, "text": "2018. 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Like a lot of times this just changes constantly. 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Even the Federal Reserve often gets it wrong. 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And this is before the pandemic, right? Like, we're not talking about 2020 where", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 238.77, "end": 239.31, "word": " right?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 239.31, "end": 239.63, "word": " And", "probability": 0.7734375 }, { "start": 239.63, "end": 239.79, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 239.79, "end": 239.91, "word": " is", "probability": 0.76611328125 }, { "start": 239.91, "end": 240.19, "word": " before", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 240.19, "end": 240.37, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 240.37, "end": 240.77, "word": " pandemic,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 240.95, "end": 240.99, "word": " right?", "probability": 0.99072265625 }, { "start": 241.07, "end": 241.17, "word": " Like,", "probability": 0.6181640625 }, { "start": 241.21, "end": 241.27, "word": " we're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 241.27, "end": 241.39, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 241.39, "end": 241.73, "word": " talking", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 241.73, "end": 241.91, "word": " about", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 241.91, "end": 242.37, "word": " 2020", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 242.37, "end": 242.65, "word": " where", "probability": 0.437744140625 } ] }, { "start": 242.65, "end": 248.35, "text": "they were projecting 3 .1. We're just saying, look, at the end of 2018, the Fed was", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 242.65, "end": 242.75, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 242.75, "end": 242.87, "word": " were", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 242.87, "end": 243.23, "word": " projecting", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 243.23, "end": 243.41, "word": " 3", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 243.41, "end": 243.77, "word": ".1.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 243.97, "end": 244.37, "word": " We're", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 244.37, "end": 244.51, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 244.51, "end": 244.69, "word": " saying,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 244.77, "end": 244.89, "word": " look,", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 244.99, "end": 245.07, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 245.07, "end": 245.19, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 245.19, "end": 245.37, "word": " end", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 245.37, "end": 245.47, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 245.47, "end": 246.01, "word": " 2018,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 246.41, "end": 246.97, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 246.97, "end": 247.39, "word": " Fed", "probability": 0.9951171875 }, { "start": 247.39, "end": 248.35, "word": " was", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 248.35, "end": 253.27, "text": "essentially penciling in two more rate hikes in 2019.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 248.35, "end": 248.85, "word": " essentially", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 248.85, "end": 249.61, "word": " penciling", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 249.61, "end": 249.93, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 249.93, "end": 250.53, "word": " two", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 250.53, "end": 250.83, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 250.83, "end": 251.11, "word": " rate", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 251.11, "end": 251.55, "word": " hikes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 251.55, "end": 252.67, "word": " in", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 252.67, "end": 253.27, "word": " 2019.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 255.85, "end": 262.71, "text": "If you look today, the market is assuming, let's get past the December meeting,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 255.85, "end": 256.33, "word": " If", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 256.33, "end": 256.45, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 256.45, "end": 256.65, "word": " look", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 256.65, "end": 257.09, "word": " today,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 257.79, "end": 258.27, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 258.27, "end": 258.65, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 258.65, "end": 260.19, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 260.19, "end": 261.09, "word": " assuming,", "probability": 0.95654296875 }, { "start": 261.35, "end": 261.51, "word": " let's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 261.51, "end": 261.67, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 261.67, "end": 262.01, "word": " past", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 262.01, "end": 262.15, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 262.15, "end": 262.47, "word": " December", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 262.47, "end": 262.71, "word": " meeting,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 262.87, "end": 268.47, "text": "let's pretend like we're already at four and a quarter. The market is penciling in two more", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 262.87, "end": 262.97, "word": " let's", "probability": 0.999267578125 }, { "start": 262.97, "end": 263.21, "word": " pretend", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 263.21, "end": 263.39, "word": " like", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 263.39, "end": 263.55, "word": " we're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 263.55, "end": 263.79, "word": " already", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 263.79, "end": 264.01, "word": " at", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 264.01, "end": 264.25, "word": " four", "probability": 0.9326171875 }, { "start": 264.25, "end": 264.35, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 264.35, "end": 264.43, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 264.43, "end": 264.67, "word": " quarter.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 265.51, "end": 265.99, "word": " The", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 265.99, "end": 266.31, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 266.31, "end": 266.69, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 266.69, "end": 267.19, "word": " penciling", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 267.19, "end": 267.43, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 267.43, "end": 268.27, "word": " two", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 268.27, "end": 268.47, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 268.47, "end": 270.71, "text": "rate hikes in 2027.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 268.47, "end": 268.65, "word": " rate", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 268.65, "end": 269.03, "word": " hikes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 269.03, "end": 270.03, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 270.03, "end": 270.71, "word": " 2027.", "probability": 0.99365234375 } ] }, { "start": 272.27, "end": 278.97, "text": "So it's clear that the market does not always know what's going to happen. It often does", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 272.27, "end": 272.91, "word": " So", "probability": 0.97216796875 }, { "start": 272.91, "end": 273.55, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.948486328125 }, { "start": 273.55, "end": 274.03, "word": " clear", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 274.03, "end": 274.71, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 274.71, "end": 275.59, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 275.59, "end": 275.91, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 275.91, "end": 276.43, "word": " does", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 276.43, "end": 276.59, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 276.59, "end": 276.85, "word": " always", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 276.85, "end": 277.09, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 277.09, "end": 277.35, "word": " what's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 277.35, "end": 277.49, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 277.49, "end": 277.59, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 277.59, "end": 277.87, "word": " happen.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 278.09, "end": 278.53, "word": " It", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 278.53, "end": 278.77, "word": " often", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 278.77, "end": 278.97, "word": " does", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 278.97, "end": 285.87, "text": "not. And the Fed does not often know what's going to happen. Because back in 2018, when the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 278.97, "end": 279.29, "word": " not.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 279.41, "end": 279.89, "word": " And", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 279.89, "end": 280.01, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 280.01, "end": 280.23, "word": " Fed", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 280.23, "end": 280.51, "word": " does", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 280.51, "end": 280.69, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 280.69, "end": 281.01, "word": " often", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 281.01, "end": 281.25, "word": " know", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 281.25, "end": 281.53, "word": " what's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 281.53, "end": 281.69, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 281.69, "end": 281.83, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 281.83, "end": 282.09, "word": " happen.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 282.55, "end": 283.19, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 283.19, "end": 283.49, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 283.49, "end": 283.69, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 283.69, "end": 284.27, "word": " 2018,", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 284.27, "end": 285.51, "word": " when", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 285.51, "end": 285.87, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 285.87, "end": 292.69, "text": "SEP was calling for two more rate hikes, the Fed didn't raise at all", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 285.87, "end": 286.35, "word": " SEP", "probability": 0.881591796875 }, { "start": 286.35, "end": 286.77, "word": " was", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 286.77, "end": 287.15, "word": " calling", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 287.15, "end": 287.41, "word": " for", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 287.41, "end": 287.87, "word": " two", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 287.87, "end": 288.43, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 288.43, "end": 288.85, "word": " rate", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 288.85, "end": 289.29, "word": " hikes,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 290.05, "end": 290.69, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 290.69, "end": 291.07, "word": " Fed", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 291.07, "end": 291.69, "word": " didn't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 291.69, "end": 292.05, "word": " raise", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 292.05, "end": 292.37, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 292.37, "end": 292.69, "word": " all", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 292.69, "end": 299.63, "text": "in 2019. And by the end of 2019, by September or July, they", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 292.69, "end": 293.35, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 293.35, "end": 293.87, "word": " 2019.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 293.87, "end": 294.79, "word": " And", "probability": 0.828125 }, { "start": 294.79, "end": 295.01, "word": " by", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 295.01, "end": 295.17, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 295.17, "end": 295.37, "word": " end", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 295.37, "end": 295.47, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 295.47, "end": 295.97, "word": " 2019,", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 296.53, "end": 296.77, "word": " by", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 296.77, "end": 297.29, "word": " September", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 297.29, "end": 298.33, "word": " or", "probability": 0.96728515625 }, { "start": 298.33, "end": 298.75, "word": " July,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 299.19, "end": 299.63, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 299.63, "end": 306.59, "text": "had already started cutting rates again. 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The Fed does not raise rates.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 497.56, "end": 498.08, "word": " midterms.", "probability": 0.9998372395833334 }, { "start": 498.38, "end": 498.82, "word": " The", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 498.82, "end": 499.2, "word": " Fed", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 499.2, "end": 500.48, "word": " does", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 500.48, "end": 500.76, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 500.76, "end": 501.0, "word": " raise", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 501.0, "end": 501.36, "word": " rates.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 502.9, "end": 508.5, "text": "The long end is spooked by this going into the midterm, so it spikes, but then it comes", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 502.9, "end": 503.34, "word": " The", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 503.34, "end": 503.68, "word": " long", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 503.68, "end": 504.0, "word": " end", "probability": 0.95703125 }, { "start": 504.0, "end": 505.1, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 505.1, "end": 505.5, "word": " spooked", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 505.5, "end": 505.68, "word": " by", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 505.68, "end": 505.96, "word": " this", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 505.96, "end": 506.22, "word": " going", "probability": 0.96826171875 }, { "start": 506.22, "end": 506.38, "word": " into", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 506.38, "end": 506.48, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 506.48, "end": 506.68, "word": " midterm,", "probability": 0.90966796875 }, { "start": 506.76, "end": 506.82, "word": " so", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 506.82, "end": 506.94, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 506.94, "end": 507.46, "word": " spikes,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 507.5, "end": 508.02, "word": " but", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 508.02, "end": 508.1, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 508.1, "end": 508.2, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 508.2, "end": 508.5, "word": " comes", "probability": 0.998046875 } ] }, { "start": 508.5, "end": 515.06, "text": "down on the other side of it. 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And if the two year yield were to drop, then they're basically the same", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 531.46, "end": 531.62, "word": " four", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 531.62, "end": 531.72, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 531.72, "end": 531.8, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 531.8, "end": 531.96, "word": " quarter.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.26, "end": 532.52, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.52, "end": 532.68, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.68, "end": 532.78, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.78, "end": 532.98, "word": " two", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 532.98, "end": 533.2, "word": " year", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 533.2, "end": 533.52, "word": " yield", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 533.52, "end": 533.7, "word": " were", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 533.7, "end": 533.86, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 533.86, "end": 534.34, "word": " drop,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 535.08, "end": 536.18, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 536.18, "end": 536.38, "word": " they're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 536.38, "end": 536.68, "word": " basically", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 536.68, "end": 536.88, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 536.88, "end": 537.04, "word": " same", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 537.04, "end": 543.46, "text": "thing, right? So that is how you could get a situation where they don't necessarily have to", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 537.04, "end": 537.32, "word": " thing,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 537.5, "end": 537.64, "word": " right?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 537.74, "end": 537.88, "word": " So", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 537.88, "end": 538.26, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 538.26, "end": 538.52, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 538.52, "end": 538.8, "word": " how", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 538.8, "end": 539.12, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 539.12, "end": 539.34, "word": " could", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 539.34, "end": 539.52, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 539.52, "end": 539.66, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 539.66, "end": 540.36, "word": " situation", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 541.28, "end": 541.68, "word": " where", "probability": 0.96826171875 }, { "start": 541.68, "end": 542.08, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 542.08, "end": 542.36, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 542.36, "end": 542.9, "word": " necessarily", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 542.9, "end": 543.3, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 543.3, "end": 543.46, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 543.46, "end": 549.8, "text": "raise rates as much in 2027, just like they didn't have to raise rates as much as they", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 543.46, "end": 543.8, "word": " raise", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 543.8, "end": 544.14, "word": " rates", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 544.14, "end": 544.58, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 544.58, "end": 545.18, "word": " much", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 545.18, "end": 546.02, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 546.02, "end": 546.8, "word": " 2027,", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 546.8, "end": 547.84, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 547.84, "end": 548.06, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 548.06, "end": 548.2, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 548.2, "end": 548.38, "word": " didn't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 548.38, "end": 548.5, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 548.5, "end": 548.62, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 548.62, "end": 548.84, "word": " raise", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 548.84, "end": 549.18, "word": " rates", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 549.18, "end": 549.36, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 549.36, "end": 549.54, "word": " much", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 549.54, "end": 549.66, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 549.66, "end": 549.8, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 549.8, "end": 556.32, "text": "thought they would have needed to in 2019. So I hope that that I mean, it might be clear as", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 549.8, "end": 550.04, "word": " thought", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 550.04, "end": 550.24, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 550.24, "end": 550.36, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 550.36, "end": 550.46, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 550.46, "end": 550.62, "word": " needed", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 550.62, "end": 550.9, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 550.9, "end": 551.9, "word": " in", "probability": 0.98681640625 }, { "start": 551.9, "end": 552.34, "word": " 2019.", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 552.68, "end": 553.08, "word": " So", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 553.08, "end": 553.68, "word": " I", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 553.68, "end": 554.4, "word": " hope", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 554.4, "end": 554.96, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 554.96, "end": 555.28, "word": " that", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 555.28, "end": 555.46, "word": " I", "probability": 0.52392578125 }, { "start": 555.46, "end": 555.52, "word": " mean,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 555.62, "end": 555.62, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 555.62, "end": 555.72, "word": " might", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 555.72, "end": 555.86, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 555.86, "end": 556.16, "word": " clear", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 556.16, "end": 556.32, "word": " as", "probability": 0.998046875 } ] }, { "start": 556.32, "end": 561.96, "text": "mud. But hopefully, some of you guys are, you know, picking up what I'm throwing down,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 556.32, "end": 556.6, "word": " mud.", "probability": 0.96533203125 }, { "start": 556.86, "end": 557.26, "word": " But", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 557.26, "end": 558.0, "word": " hopefully,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 558.16, "end": 558.24, "word": " some", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 558.24, "end": 558.36, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 558.36, "end": 558.44, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 558.44, "end": 558.8, "word": " guys", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 558.8, "end": 559.62, "word": " are,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 559.72, "end": 560.62, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9853515625 }, { "start": 560.62, "end": 560.68, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 560.82, "end": 560.94, "word": " picking", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 560.94, "end": 561.16, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 561.16, "end": 561.3, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 561.3, "end": 561.42, "word": " I'm", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 561.42, "end": 561.64, "word": " throwing", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 561.64, "end": 561.96, "word": " down,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 562.18, "end": 566.68, "text": "right in the sense that it seems like a very similar setup, right? 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Okay, I think one more rate hike is in the cards before the end of the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 628.14, "end": 628.38, "word": " so", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 628.38, "end": 629.06, "word": " deterministic.", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 629.28, "end": 629.6, "word": " Okay,", "probability": 0.93994140625 }, { "start": 629.72, "end": 629.84, "word": " I", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 629.84, "end": 630.06, "word": " think", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 630.06, "end": 630.3, "word": " one", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 630.3, "end": 630.46, "word": " more", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 630.46, "end": 630.62, "word": " rate", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 630.62, "end": 630.78, "word": " hike", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 630.78, "end": 630.94, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 630.94, "end": 631.02, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 631.02, "end": 631.08, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 631.08, "end": 631.46, "word": " cards", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 632.16, "end": 632.6, "word": " before", "probability": 0.96435546875 }, { "start": 632.6, "end": 632.8, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 632.8, "end": 632.9, "word": " end", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 632.9, "end": 632.98, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 632.98, "end": 633.04, "word": " the", "probability": 0.998046875 } ] }, { "start": 633.04, "end": 640.02, "text": "year. But once we get out of 2027, you have to start to wonder if the long", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 633.04, "end": 633.28, "word": " year.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 633.56, "end": 634.0, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 634.0, "end": 634.3, "word": " once", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 634.3, "end": 634.46, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 634.46, "end": 634.58, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 634.58, "end": 634.74, "word": " out", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 634.74, "end": 634.86, "word": " of", "probability": 0.7158203125 }, { "start": 634.86, "end": 635.52, "word": " 2027,", "probability": 0.994384765625 }, { "start": 635.52, "end": 636.72, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.72, "end": 636.88, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.88, "end": 637.0, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 637.0, "end": 637.18, "word": " start", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 637.18, "end": 637.38, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 637.38, "end": 637.74, "word": " wonder", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 637.74, "end": 638.62, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 638.62, "end": 639.28, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 639.28, "end": 640.02, "word": " long", "probability": 0.99365234375 } ] }, { "start": 640.02, "end": 646.34, "text": "end going up as much as it has, if that's going to start to weigh on on businesses.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 640.02, "end": 640.24, "word": " end", "probability": 0.8701171875 }, { "start": 640.24, "end": 640.56, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 640.56, "end": 640.96, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 640.96, "end": 641.44, "word": " as", "probability": 0.98828125 }, { "start": 641.44, "end": 641.74, "word": " much", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 641.74, "end": 641.9, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 641.9, "end": 642.02, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 642.02, "end": 642.5, "word": " has,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 642.74, "end": 643.4, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 643.4, "end": 643.7, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 643.7, "end": 643.82, "word": " going", "probability": 0.97705078125 }, { "start": 643.82, "end": 643.9, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 643.9, "end": 644.1, "word": " start", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 644.1, "end": 644.32, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 644.32, "end": 644.68, "word": " weigh", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 644.68, "end": 645.62, "word": " on", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 645.62, "end": 645.94, "word": " on", "probability": 0.9794921875 }, { "start": 645.94, "end": 646.34, "word": " businesses.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 646.7, "end": 652.38, "text": "And if it does, and you start to see growth scares, then there's not going to be, you know,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 646.7, "end": 647.14, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 647.14, "end": 647.32, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 647.32, "end": 647.46, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 647.46, "end": 647.9, "word": " does,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 647.9, "end": 648.42, "word": " and", "probability": 0.94921875 }, { "start": 648.42, "end": 648.54, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 648.54, "end": 648.74, "word": " start", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 648.74, "end": 648.86, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 648.86, "end": 649.08, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 649.08, "end": 649.5, "word": " growth", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 649.5, "end": 649.92, "word": " scares,", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 650.32, "end": 650.82, "word": " then", "probability": 0.98828125 }, { "start": 650.82, "end": 651.08, "word": " there's", "probability": 0.974609375 }, { "start": 651.08, "end": 651.26, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 651.26, "end": 651.5, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 651.5, "end": 651.62, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 651.62, "end": 651.86, "word": " be,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 652.12, "end": 652.22, "word": " you", "probability": 0.85693359375 }, { "start": 652.22, "end": 652.38, "word": " know,", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 652.58, "end": 658.96, "text": "those rate hikes just simply might not manifest at all. Okay, so, and remember with the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 652.58, "end": 653.0, "word": " those", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 653.0, "end": 653.3, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 653.3, "end": 653.78, "word": " hikes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 653.78, "end": 654.6, "word": " just", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 654.6, "end": 654.86, "word": " simply", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 654.86, "end": 655.04, "word": " might", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 655.04, "end": 655.2, "word": " not", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 655.2, "end": 655.62, "word": " manifest", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 655.62, "end": 655.84, "word": " at", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 655.84, "end": 656.02, "word": " all.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 656.58, "end": 657.1, "word": " Okay,", "probability": 0.82177734375 }, { "start": 657.32, "end": 657.74, "word": " so,", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 657.98, "end": 658.42, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 658.42, "end": 658.68, "word": " remember", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 658.68, "end": 658.86, "word": " with", "probability": 0.78759765625 }, { "start": 658.86, "end": 658.96, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 658.96, "end": 664.14, "text": "long end, what normally happens in the last couple of midterm years is it tops in October,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 658.96, "end": 659.26, "word": " long", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 659.26, "end": 659.54, "word": " end,", "probability": 0.98583984375 }, { "start": 659.74, "end": 659.78, "word": " what", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 659.78, "end": 660.14, "word": " normally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.14, "end": 660.56, "word": " happens", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.56, "end": 660.82, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.82, "end": 660.9, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.9, "end": 661.1, "word": " last", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 661.1, "end": 661.32, "word": " couple", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 661.32, "end": 661.42, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 661.42, "end": 661.7, "word": " midterm", "probability": 0.998779296875 }, { "start": 661.7, "end": 662.04, "word": " years", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 662.04, "end": 662.62, "word": " is", "probability": 0.97265625 }, { "start": 662.62, "end": 662.76, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 662.76, "end": 663.14, "word": " tops", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 663.14, "end": 663.76, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 663.76, "end": 664.14, "word": " October,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 664.76, "end": 670.54, "text": "it puts in a top in October, it then drops, and then it rallies back into the midterms.", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 664.76, "end": 665.28, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99365234375 }, { "start": 665.28, "end": 665.5, "word": " puts", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 665.5, "end": 665.6, "word": " in", "probability": 0.98193359375 }, { "start": 665.6, "end": 665.76, "word": " a", "probability": 0.9853515625 }, { "start": 665.76, "end": 665.96, "word": " top", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 665.96, "end": 666.14, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 666.14, "end": 666.54, "word": " October,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 666.9, "end": 667.28, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 667.28, "end": 667.44, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 667.44, "end": 667.9, "word": " drops,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 668.16, "end": 668.8, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 668.8, "end": 668.92, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 668.92, "end": 669.04, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 669.04, "end": 669.46, "word": " rallies", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 669.46, "end": 669.74, "word": " back", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 669.74, "end": 669.96, "word": " into", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 669.96, "end": 670.06, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 670.06, "end": 670.54, "word": " midterms.", "probability": 0.9998372395833334 } ] }, { "start": 671.14, "end": 672.44, "text": "Sometimes it's a higher high,", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 671.14, "end": 671.66, "word": " Sometimes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 671.66, "end": 671.9, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.998779296875 }, { "start": 671.9, "end": 671.96, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 671.96, "end": 672.16, "word": " higher", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 672.16, "end": 672.44, "word": " high,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 673.66, "end": 679.82, "text": "sometimes it's a lower high, and then it drops after the midterms. So I feel like the", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 673.66, "end": 674.18, "word": " sometimes", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 674.18, "end": 674.46, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 674.46, "end": 674.52, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 674.52, "end": 674.7, "word": " lower", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 674.7, "end": 674.96, "word": " high,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 675.72, "end": 676.24, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 676.24, "end": 676.34, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 676.34, "end": 676.46, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 676.46, "end": 676.88, "word": " drops", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 676.88, "end": 677.24, "word": " after", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 677.24, "end": 677.38, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 677.38, "end": 677.82, "word": " midterms.", "probability": 0.9998372395833334 }, { "start": 677.9, "end": 678.46, "word": " So", "probability": 0.89599609375 }, { "start": 678.46, "end": 679.44, "word": " I", "probability": 0.86572265625 }, { "start": 679.44, "end": 679.6, "word": " feel", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 679.6, "end": 679.72, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 679.72, "end": 679.82, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 679.82, "end": 685.82, "text": "playbook's there and it's like, it seems like this is what's likely going to happen. So", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 679.82, "end": 680.24, "word": " playbook's", "probability": 0.9788411458333334 }, { "start": 680.24, "end": 680.5, "word": " there", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 680.5, "end": 681.12, "word": " and", "probability": 0.3017578125 }, { "start": 681.12, "end": 681.8, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.828369140625 }, { "start": 681.8, "end": 681.94, "word": " like,", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 682.08, "end": 682.44, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 682.44, "end": 682.68, "word": " seems", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 682.68, "end": 682.94, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 682.94, "end": 683.16, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 683.16, "end": 683.3, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 683.3, "end": 683.74, "word": " what's", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 683.74, "end": 684.16, "word": " likely", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 684.16, "end": 684.36, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 684.36, "end": 684.48, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 684.48, "end": 684.74, "word": " happen.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 685.38, "end": 685.82, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 685.82, "end": 691.06, "text": "let's see if it does, because if it does, then we might just be running the same playbook", "speaker_id": "Speaker 1", "words": [ { "start": 685.82, "end": 686.12, "word": " let's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 686.12, "end": 686.24, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 686.24, "end": 686.38, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 686.38, "end": 686.48, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 686.48, "end": 686.78, "word": " does,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 686.92, "end": 687.08, "word": " because", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 687.08, "end": 687.3, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 687.3, "end": 687.42, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 687.42, "end": 687.92, "word": " does,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 688.38, "end": 688.68, "word": " then", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 688.68, "end": 689.66, "word": " we", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 689.66, "end": 689.84, "word": " might", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 689.84, "end": 690.0, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 690.0, "end": 690.12, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 690.12, "end": 690.34, "word": " running", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 690.34, "end": 690.46, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 690.46, "end": 690.62, "word": " same", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 690.62, "end": 691.06, "word": " playbook", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 691.06, "end": 696.24, "text": "eight years later. Right. So those are my views. 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So you have an 80% chance the Fed is", "avg_logprob": -0.08035714027224755, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 93.35, "end": 93.57, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.56182861328125 }, { "start": 93.57, "end": 93.69, "word": " actually", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 93.69, "end": 93.87, "word": " an", "probability": 0.81640625 }, { "start": 93.87, "end": 94.07, "word": " 80", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 94.07, "end": 94.35, "word": " something", "probability": 0.95751953125 }, { "start": 94.35, "end": 94.59, "word": " percent", "probability": 0.9453125 }, { "start": 94.59, "end": 94.87, "word": " chance", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 94.87, "end": 95.05, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 95.05, "end": 95.57, "word": " hold", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 95.57, "end": 96.33, "word": " rates.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 96.83, "end": 97.37, "word": " So", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 97.37, "end": 97.95, "word": " you", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 97.95, "end": 98.25, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 98.25, "end": 98.41, "word": " an", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 98.41, "end": 98.79, "word": " 80", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 98.79, "end": 99.15, "word": "%", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 99.15, "end": 99.69, "word": " chance", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 99.69, "end": 100.29, "word": " the", "probability": 0.765625 }, { "start": 100.29, "end": 100.55, "word": " Fed", "probability": 0.9912109375 }, { "start": 100.55, "end": 100.73, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 100.73, "end": 107.65, "text": "going to hold rates steady. Now, to some degree, the market is obviously the market today is", "avg_logprob": -0.08035714027224755, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 100.73, "end": 100.83, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9970703125 }, { "start": 100.83, "end": 100.93, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 100.93, "end": 101.23, "word": " hold", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 101.23, "end": 101.67, "word": " rates", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 101.67, "end": 102.21, "word": " steady.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 102.45, "end": 102.99, "word": " Now,", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 103.21, "end": 103.85, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 103.85, "end": 104.23, "word": " some", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 104.23, "end": 104.65, "word": " degree,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 104.97, "end": 105.19, "word": " the", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 105.19, "end": 105.47, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 105.47, "end": 105.77, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 105.77, "end": 106.27, "word": " obviously", "probability": 0.787109375 }, { "start": 106.27, "end": 106.49, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99462890625 }, { "start": 106.49, "end": 106.77, "word": " market", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 106.77, "end": 107.19, "word": " today", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 107.19, "end": 107.65, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 107.65, "end": 114.13, "text": "different than 2018. I'm not trying to imply that it's the same. 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Because imagine if the if the two year yield or imagine if the Fed funds rate", "avg_logprob": -0.06675347288449605, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 524.22, "end": 524.72, "word": " territory.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 524.9, "end": 525.22, "word": " Because", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 525.22, "end": 525.72, "word": " imagine", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 525.72, "end": 526.0, "word": " if", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 526.0, "end": 526.12, "word": " the", "probability": 0.99169921875 }, { "start": 526.12, "end": 526.34, "word": " if", "probability": 0.171142578125 }, { "start": 526.34, "end": 526.58, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 526.58, "end": 526.76, "word": " two", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 526.76, "end": 527.0, "word": " year", "probability": 0.9716796875 }, { "start": 527.0, "end": 527.24, "word": " yield", "probability": 0.6806640625 }, { "start": 527.24, "end": 527.42, "word": " or", "probability": 0.8916015625 }, { "start": 527.42, "end": 527.76, "word": " imagine", "probability": 0.90673828125 }, { "start": 527.76, "end": 527.92, "word": " if", "probability": 0.96435546875 }, { "start": 527.92, "end": 528.02, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 528.02, "end": 528.2, "word": " Fed", "probability": 0.96826171875 }, { "start": 528.2, "end": 528.48, "word": " funds", "probability": 0.97314453125 }, { "start": 528.48, "end": 528.74, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 528.74, "end": 533.86, "text": "goes up to four and a quarter, it goes up to four and a quarter. And if the two year yield were to", "avg_logprob": -0.06675347288449605, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 528.74, "end": 529.34, "word": " goes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 529.34, "end": 529.54, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 529.54, "end": 529.66, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 529.66, "end": 529.88, "word": " four", "probability": 0.994140625 }, { "start": 529.88, "end": 530.0, "word": " and", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 530.0, "end": 530.1, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 530.1, "end": 530.32, "word": " quarter,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 530.68, "end": 531.04, "word": " it", "probability": 0.9638671875 }, { "start": 531.04, "end": 531.24, "word": " goes", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 531.24, "end": 531.38, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 531.38, "end": 531.46, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 531.46, "end": 531.62, "word": " four", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 531.62, "end": 531.72, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 531.72, "end": 531.8, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 531.8, "end": 531.96, "word": " quarter.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.26, "end": 532.52, "word": " And", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.52, "end": 532.68, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.68, "end": 532.78, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 532.78, "end": 532.98, "word": " two", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 532.98, "end": 533.2, "word": " year", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 533.2, "end": 533.52, "word": " yield", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 533.52, "end": 533.7, "word": " were", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 533.7, "end": 533.86, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 533.86, "end": 540.36, "text": "drop, then they're basically the same thing, right? So that is how you could get a situation", "avg_logprob": -0.06675347288449605, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 533.86, "end": 534.34, "word": " drop,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 535.08, "end": 536.18, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 536.18, "end": 536.38, "word": " they're", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 536.38, "end": 536.68, "word": " basically", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 536.68, "end": 536.88, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 536.88, "end": 537.04, "word": " same", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 537.04, "end": 537.32, "word": " thing,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 537.5, "end": 537.64, "word": " right?", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 537.74, "end": 537.88, "word": " So", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 537.88, "end": 538.26, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 538.26, "end": 538.52, "word": " is", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 538.52, "end": 538.8, "word": " how", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 538.8, "end": 539.12, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 539.12, "end": 539.34, "word": " could", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 539.34, "end": 539.52, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 539.52, "end": 539.66, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 539.66, "end": 540.36, "word": " situation", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 541.28, "end": 548.62, "text": "where they don't necessarily have to raise rates as much in 2027, just like they didn't have to", "avg_logprob": -0.05266927092646559, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 541.28, "end": 541.68, "word": " where", "probability": 0.96826171875 }, { "start": 541.68, "end": 542.08, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 542.08, "end": 542.36, "word": " don't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 542.36, "end": 542.9, "word": " necessarily", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 542.9, "end": 543.3, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 543.3, "end": 543.46, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 543.46, "end": 543.8, "word": " raise", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 543.8, "end": 544.14, "word": " rates", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 544.14, "end": 544.58, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 544.58, "end": 545.18, "word": " much", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 545.18, "end": 546.02, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99853515625 }, { "start": 546.02, "end": 546.8, "word": " 2027,", "probability": 0.986328125 }, { "start": 546.8, "end": 547.84, "word": " just", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 547.84, "end": 548.06, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 548.06, "end": 548.2, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 548.2, "end": 548.38, "word": " didn't", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 548.38, "end": 548.5, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 548.5, "end": 548.62, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 548.62, "end": 555.46, "text": "raise rates as much as they thought they would have needed to in 2019. So I hope that that I", "avg_logprob": -0.05266927092646559, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 548.62, "end": 548.84, "word": " raise", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 548.84, "end": 549.18, "word": " rates", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 549.18, "end": 549.36, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 549.36, "end": 549.54, "word": " much", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 549.54, "end": 549.66, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 549.66, "end": 549.8, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 549.8, "end": 550.04, "word": " thought", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 550.04, "end": 550.24, "word": " they", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 550.24, "end": 550.36, "word": " would", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 550.36, "end": 550.46, "word": " have", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 550.46, "end": 550.62, "word": " needed", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 550.62, "end": 550.9, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 550.9, "end": 551.9, "word": " in", "probability": 0.98681640625 }, { "start": 551.9, "end": 552.34, "word": " 2019.", "probability": 0.99560546875 }, { "start": 552.68, "end": 553.08, "word": " So", "probability": 0.9931640625 }, { "start": 553.08, "end": 553.68, "word": " I", "probability": 0.98388671875 }, { "start": 553.68, "end": 554.4, "word": " hope", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 554.4, "end": 554.96, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 554.96, "end": 555.28, "word": " that", "probability": 0.98974609375 }, { "start": 555.28, "end": 555.46, "word": " I", "probability": 0.52392578125 } ] }, { "start": 555.46, "end": 561.3, "text": "mean, it might be clear as mud. But hopefully, some of you guys are, you know, picking up what", "avg_logprob": -0.05266927092646559, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 555.46, "end": 555.52, "word": " mean,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 555.62, "end": 555.62, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 555.62, "end": 555.72, "word": " might", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 555.72, "end": 555.86, "word": " be", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 555.86, "end": 556.16, "word": " clear", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 556.16, "end": 556.32, "word": " as", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 556.32, "end": 556.6, "word": " mud.", "probability": 0.96533203125 }, { "start": 556.86, "end": 557.26, "word": " But", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 557.26, "end": 558.0, "word": " hopefully,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 558.16, "end": 558.24, "word": " some", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 558.24, "end": 558.36, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 558.36, "end": 558.44, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 558.44, "end": 558.8, "word": " guys", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 558.8, "end": 559.62, "word": " are,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 559.72, "end": 560.62, "word": " you", "probability": 0.9853515625 }, { "start": 560.62, "end": 560.68, "word": " know,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 560.82, "end": 560.94, "word": " picking", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 560.94, "end": 561.16, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 561.16, "end": 561.3, "word": " what", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 561.3, "end": 565.88, "text": "I'm throwing down, right in the sense that it seems like a very similar setup, right? Like,", "avg_logprob": -0.05266927092646559, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 561.3, "end": 561.42, "word": " I'm", "probability": 0.999755859375 }, { "start": 561.42, "end": 561.64, "word": " throwing", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 561.64, "end": 561.96, "word": " down,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 562.18, "end": 562.34, "word": " right", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 562.34, "end": 562.52, "word": " in", "probability": 0.7138671875 }, { "start": 562.52, "end": 562.64, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 562.64, "end": 562.9, "word": " sense", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 562.9, "end": 563.2, "word": " that", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 563.2, "end": 564.0, "word": " it", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 564.0, "end": 564.36, "word": " seems", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 564.36, "end": 564.58, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 564.58, "end": 564.68, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 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So I could see us getting one more rate hike in December. But after that,", "avg_logprob": -0.06557190823323518, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 620.46, "end": 620.74, "word": " actually", "probability": 0.98291015625 }, { "start": 620.74, "end": 621.02, "word": " happened.", "probability": 0.99755859375 }, { "start": 621.4, "end": 621.84, "word": " So", "probability": 0.982421875 }, { "start": 621.84, "end": 622.78, "word": " I", "probability": 0.98046875 }, { "start": 622.78, "end": 622.94, "word": " could", "probability": 0.94580078125 }, { "start": 622.94, "end": 623.08, "word": " see", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 623.08, "end": 623.22, "word": " us", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 623.22, "end": 623.38, "word": " getting", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 623.38, "end": 623.58, "word": " one", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 623.58, "end": 623.72, "word": " more", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 623.72, "end": 623.88, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 623.88, "end": 624.1, "word": " hike", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 624.1, "end": 625.02, "word": " in", "probability": 0.99658203125 }, { "start": 625.02, "end": 625.4, "word": " December.", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 625.68, "end": 626.12, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 626.12, "end": 626.34, "word": " after", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 626.34, "end": 626.58, "word": " that,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 626.7, "end": 631.46, "text": "I would I would not be so deterministic. 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But once we get out of 2027, you have to start to wonder if the long", "avg_logprob": -0.06557190823323518, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 632.16, "end": 632.6, "word": " before", "probability": 0.96435546875 }, { "start": 632.6, "end": 632.8, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 632.8, "end": 632.9, "word": " end", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 632.9, "end": 632.98, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 632.98, "end": 633.04, "word": " the", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 633.04, "end": 633.28, "word": " year.", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 633.56, "end": 634.0, "word": " But", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 634.0, "end": 634.3, "word": " once", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 634.3, "end": 634.46, "word": " we", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 634.46, "end": 634.58, "word": " get", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 634.58, "end": 634.74, "word": " out", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 634.74, "end": 634.86, "word": " of", "probability": 0.7158203125 }, { "start": 634.86, "end": 635.52, "word": " 2027,", "probability": 0.994384765625 }, { "start": 635.52, "end": 636.72, "word": " you", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.72, "end": 636.88, "word": " have", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 636.88, "end": 637.0, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 637.0, "end": 637.18, "word": " start", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 637.18, "end": 637.38, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 637.38, "end": 637.74, "word": " wonder", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 637.74, "end": 638.62, "word": " if", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 638.62, "end": 639.28, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 639.28, "end": 640.02, "word": " long", "probability": 0.99365234375 } ] }, { "start": 640.02, "end": 647.9, "text": "end going up as much as it has, if that's going to start to weigh on on businesses. And if it does,", "avg_logprob": -0.06557190823323518, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 640.02, "end": 640.24, "word": " end", "probability": 0.8701171875 }, { "start": 640.24, "end": 640.56, "word": " going", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 640.56, "end": 640.96, "word": " up", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 640.96, "end": 641.44, "word": " as", "probability": 0.98828125 }, { "start": 641.44, "end": 641.74, "word": " much", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 641.74, "end": 641.9, "word": " as", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 641.9, "end": 642.02, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 642.02, "end": 642.5, "word": " has,", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 642.74, "end": 643.4, "word": " if", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 643.4, "end": 643.7, "word": " that's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 643.7, "end": 643.82, "word": " going", "probability": 0.97705078125 }, { "start": 643.82, "end": 643.9, "word": " to", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 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the last couple of midterm years", "avg_logprob": -0.24021946519385767, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 659.74, "end": 659.78, "word": " what", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 659.78, "end": 660.14, "word": " normally", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.14, "end": 660.56, "word": " happens", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.56, "end": 660.82, "word": " in", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.82, "end": 660.9, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 660.9, "end": 661.1, "word": " last", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 661.1, "end": 661.32, "word": " couple", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 661.32, "end": 661.42, "word": " of", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 661.42, "end": 661.7, "word": " midterm", "probability": 0.998779296875 }, { "start": 661.7, "end": 662.04, "word": " years", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 662.04, "end": 664.14, "text": "is it tops in October,", "avg_logprob": -0.24021946519385767, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, 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"probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 674.18, "end": 674.46, "word": " it's", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 674.46, "end": 674.52, "word": " a", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 674.52, "end": 674.7, "word": " lower", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 674.7, "end": 674.96, "word": " high,", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 675.72, "end": 677.82, "text": "and then it drops after the midterms.", "avg_logprob": -0.24021946519385767, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 675.72, "end": 676.24, "word": " and", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 676.24, "end": 676.34, "word": " then", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 676.34, "end": 676.46, "word": " it", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 676.46, "end": 676.88, "word": " drops", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 676.88, "end": 677.24, "word": " after", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 677.24, "end": 677.38, "word": " the", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 677.38, "end": 677.82, "word": " midterms.", "probability": 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" like,", "probability": 0.998046875 }, { "start": 682.08, "end": 682.44, "word": " it", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 682.44, "end": 682.68, "word": " seems", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 682.68, "end": 682.94, "word": " like", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 682.94, "end": 683.16, "word": " this", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 683.16, "end": 683.3, "word": " is", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 683.3, "end": 683.74, "word": " what's", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 683.74, "end": 684.16, "word": " likely", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 684.16, "end": 684.36, "word": " going", "probability": 0.9990234375 }, { "start": 684.36, "end": 684.48, "word": " to", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 684.48, "end": 684.74, "word": " happen.", "probability": 0.99951171875 } ] }, { "start": 685.38, "end": 692.1, "text": "So let's see if it does, because if it does, then we might just be running the same playbook eight years later.", 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So those are my views.", "avg_logprob": -0.1631196093713415, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 692.52, "end": 692.76, "word": " Right.", "probability": 0.796875 }, { "start": 693.08, "end": 693.52, "word": " So", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 693.52, "end": 693.84, "word": " those", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 693.84, "end": 693.94, "word": " are", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 693.94, "end": 694.04, "word": " my", "probability": 1.0 }, { "start": 694.04, "end": 694.34, "word": " views.", "probability": 1.0 } ] }, { "start": 694.52, "end": 702.56, "text": "My guess is the Fed's not going to raise rates in October, which is coming up in about nine days, the FOMC meeting about nine days.", "avg_logprob": -0.1631196093713415, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [ { "start": 694.52, "end": 694.82, "word": " My", "probability": 0.99951171875 }, { "start": 694.82, "end": 695.14, "word": " guess", "probability": 0.99609375 }, { "start": 695.14, "end": 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