🚀 Buy Borrow Die, SPCX vs MSTR, SOL vs SUI. Compute Is the New Oil | IA Q&A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAz7aHH_tOs Language: en | ASR: large-v3-turbo @ 0a363e9161cbc7ed1431c9597a8ceaf0c4f78fcf [00:00:00.300 --> 00:00:04.420] Speaker 1: let's talk about the story let's go fast all the questions come from patreon first [00:00:04.420 --> 00:00:10.640] Speaker 1: questions from joe one joe one is very interested in the so -called [00:00:10.640 --> 00:00:15.340] Speaker 1: buy borrow die strategy first and foremost thank you for you and your team for all you do [00:00:15.340 --> 00:00:19.920] Speaker 1: it's been life -changing for me so i know you always talk about rotation of assets however [00:00:19.920 --> 00:00:26.520] Speaker 1: i'm a firm believer in a wealth asset strategy of buy borrow die to where you never sell [00:00:26.520 --> 00:00:32.400] Speaker 1: your assets you simply borrow against them to buy more assets what would your advice be to [00:00:32.400 --> 00:00:36.600] Speaker 1: someone like me who strongly believes in that strategy but also takes your advice extremely [00:00:36.600 --> 00:00:41.260] Speaker 1: seriously as far as rotation so i never have to sell my assets and endure huge tax [00:00:41.260 --> 00:00:46.420] Speaker 1: ramifications thank you so much again obviously not financial advice so quick recap on what [00:00:46.420 --> 00:00:53.220] Speaker 1: buy borrow die is my friends in case you didn't know the core idea is [00:00:53.220 --> 00:00:58.280] Speaker 1: you buy something for example in this simple example you buy fifty thousand dollars worth [00:00:58.280 --> 00:01:02.600] Speaker 1: of equity and by the way there are people who put ten thousand dollars into things like [00:01:02.600 --> 00:01:09.360] Speaker 1: home depot 40 years ago and made millions so it's theoretically possible um and [00:01:09.360 --> 00:01:16.260] Speaker 1: then your fit your 50k turns into a few million dollars two million bucks and then [00:01:16.260 --> 00:01:22.940] Speaker 1: after that you can put in a trust in your own name or a revocable trust [00:01:22.940 --> 00:01:29.400] Speaker 1: under depending on your current law and where you are and your kids when they you you live [00:01:29.400 --> 00:01:35.980] Speaker 1: off what you borrow from your assets you still have to pay that back of course or you can [00:01:35.980 --> 00:01:39.840] Speaker 1: just borrow a little bit and as the assets grow it becomes a smaller and smaller percentage [00:01:39.840 --> 00:01:46.680] Speaker 1: so it doesn't really matter and then uh heaven forbid something bad happens but then your [00:01:46.680 --> 00:01:53.640] Speaker 1: kids get your trust and there's no tax on that trust depending on your situation and your [00:01:53.640 --> 00:01:58.800] Speaker 1: stay so your kids can inherit the two million basis there's also stories right now where [00:01:58.800 --> 00:02:03.560] Speaker 1: you could have a big bag of some stock in your schwab account and you can borrow against [00:02:03.560 --> 00:02:09.060] Speaker 1: that you can actually buy real estate with it but remember don't ever get a margin call [00:02:09.060 --> 00:02:12.900] Speaker 1: don't get liquidated or you lose everything so make sure you've got oodles and oodles of [00:02:12.900 --> 00:02:17.340] Speaker 1: margin but so many things are now possible and there'll be even more stuff possible in the [00:02:17.340 --> 00:02:23.920] Speaker 1: future so that's the buy borrow die concept now it works very well in some [00:02:23.920 --> 00:02:30.800] Speaker 1: circumstances but not in others uh hang on am i missing a slide here yeah so for [00:02:30.800 --> 00:02:37.780] Speaker 1: example it can work very well on one condition if you are holding an asset forever it needs [00:02:37.780 --> 00:02:44.780] Speaker 1: to be a very very strong compounder okay you borrow against strength and time is [00:02:44.780 --> 00:02:48.980] Speaker 1: your friend so the amount you borrow actually becomes very insignificant but if you borrow [00:02:48.980 --> 00:02:54.100] Speaker 1: against weakness time is your enemy that's the big problem and never selling is not a [00:02:54.100 --> 00:02:58.260] Speaker 1: strategy in my opinion because everything runs out of steam for the most part unless you [00:02:58.260 --> 00:03:04.760] Speaker 1: are extremely lucky so let's look at what i call the up only compounders this is the list [00:03:04.760 --> 00:03:08.980] Speaker 1: of the best performing stocks and i know people will say oh tesla is not good performing [00:03:08.980 --> 00:03:14.540] Speaker 1: but you remember these are the best performing stocks these are the best kagers but tesla [00:03:14.540 --> 00:03:19.280] Speaker 1: is very young and it's done an awful lot in a very short window of time of 15 years nvidia [00:03:19.280 --> 00:03:24.580] Speaker 1: 28 years the kager is less than tesla despite the fact that tesla hasn't had a great last [00:03:24.580 --> 00:03:28.940] Speaker 1: couple of years that's a separate issue. But all of these are winning names. And you can [00:03:28.940 --> 00:03:35.480] Speaker 1: see all of these cool stocks, Tesla, Nvidia, Netflix, Microsoft, Oracle, Home Depot. If you [00:03:35.480 --> 00:03:42.460] Speaker 1: held Home Depot for 47 years, you made an annual CAGR of 22 .5%, literally 1 [00:03:42.460 --> 00:03:48.260] Speaker 1: .38 million percent return. Cisco, 35 years. But Cisco didn't do anything for like 20 [00:03:48.260 --> 00:03:53.020] Speaker 1: years. Walmart didn't do anything for 12 years. So you get these big flat parts. Adobe, you [00:03:53.020 --> 00:03:57.980] Speaker 1: could argue, is cannibalized. It's going to get itself cannibalized by ai and apple kind of [00:03:57.980 --> 00:04:02.520] Speaker 1: a little bit running out of steam too starbucks also a little bit running out of steam best [00:04:02.520 --> 00:04:09.120] Speaker 1: buy zombie box retailer perhaps costco that's a good one 16 kagger nike [00:04:09.120 --> 00:04:15.540] Speaker 1: we all saw what happened to nike toast fedex so if you take this list [00:04:15.540 --> 00:04:20.920] Speaker 1: you'll see very quickly yes you could have made great money by holding for a long time but [00:04:20.920 --> 00:04:26.840] Speaker 1: there comes a time with every train that you need to step off it's very rare they go up [00:04:26.840 --> 00:04:32.100] Speaker 1: forever and then you rotate into what the next big thing is going to be but you need to get [00:04:32.100 --> 00:04:36.160] Speaker 1: in early that's the miracle and remember if you're holding long -term capital gains taxes [00:04:36.160 --> 00:04:43.100] Speaker 1: is 20 it's worth taking that hit always worth taking that hit too and this [00:04:43.100 --> 00:04:49.040] Speaker 1: is the danger of holding the losers got to be very careful because again a loser does not [00:04:49.040 --> 00:04:54.620] Speaker 1: just cost you the drop in price but it traps your capital that could be compounding [00:04:54.620 --> 00:05:01.580] Speaker 1: somewhere else you know for example crypto has seasons ai has seasons you know [00:05:01.580 --> 00:05:07.580] Speaker 1: telco back in the day had seasons social like facebook etc had seasons amazon had seasons [00:05:07.580 --> 00:05:12.920] Speaker 1: again this is why you do need to rotate and rotation rotation is not only selling when it's [00:05:12.920 --> 00:05:18.660] Speaker 1: early you could just sell part of your bag, not the whole thing. But firing losers so that [00:05:18.660 --> 00:05:24.860] Speaker 1: the winners get more capital is key. Dead money plus leverage is how you blow up a [00:05:24.860 --> 00:05:30.700] Speaker 1: portfolio. So don't do that. Don't do that ever. So there are times and places to buy, [00:05:30.880 --> 00:05:37.680] Speaker 1: borrow, and die, but rotation is still very important. Now, it can work, but you need to be [00:05:37.680 --> 00:05:43.660] Speaker 1: in those incredible companies. Think, as part of my video years ago, the 0 .3 % of stocks. [00:05:44.060 --> 00:05:50.700] Speaker 1: But still, even with that, nothing lasts forever. The rule is simple, hold quality, but [00:05:50.700 --> 00:05:57.380] Speaker 1: rotate out of anything that becomes a broken thesis, or something gets disrupted, etc. And [00:05:57.380 --> 00:06:01.360] Speaker 1: review the thesis, don't worry about the tax bill, you never go broke paying taxes or [00:06:01.360 --> 00:06:05.500] Speaker 1: profits, but you're better off moving. Like imagine you've got a million dollars in one [00:06:05.500 --> 00:06:09.800] Speaker 1: asset, and the thesis is changing, it's about to be completely cannibalized and it's half [00:06:09.800 --> 00:06:14.220] Speaker 1: its value. you shouldn't sweat paying 20 % on that and rotating into something that's going [00:06:14.220 --> 00:06:19.500] Speaker 1: to 10x over the next five or 10 years that's going to be the key and of course i'm not a [00:06:19.500 --> 00:06:25.120] Speaker 1: tax professional and taxes are very local jurisdiction specific so check that as well but [00:06:25.120 --> 00:06:31.260] Speaker 1: don't ever ever hold on to a dog because you're afraid of paying taxes that is dangerous [00:06:31.260 --> 00:06:38.140] Speaker 1: very dangerous all right next question which ties into the first question which is [00:06:38.140 --> 00:06:43.840] Speaker 1: from dumb money asks i would like to rotate half of my micro strategy due to dilution into [00:06:43.840 --> 00:06:50.060] Speaker 1: spacex what would be a good time to do so and do i wait for bitcoin to cross before 100k [00:06:50.060 --> 00:06:56.040] Speaker 1: before i do this a lot of good questions here but let's let's take a step back and look at [00:06:56.040 --> 00:07:00.760] Speaker 1: the two different assets and where we're actually going because that's the most important [00:07:00.760 --> 00:07:07.140] Speaker 1: thing timing it's looking at the pair will come kind of later first of all this is the [00:07:07.140 --> 00:07:14.020] Speaker 1: micro strategy wall street upside target 66 from here that takes us to an average [00:07:14.020 --> 00:07:20.280] Speaker 1: price at 227 from the price we're currently at not bad spacex [00:07:20.280 --> 00:07:27.040] Speaker 1: less upside but i also believe spacex is less understood by wall street [00:07:27.040 --> 00:07:30.880] Speaker 1: it's a very complex company to understand and we're going to go through a lot of spacex [00:07:30.880 --> 00:07:37.800] Speaker 1: stuff today as well but the upside is only 49 versus 66 here or so [00:07:37.800 --> 00:07:44.240] Speaker 1: less less however the other thing you need to look at when you're trading [00:07:44.240 --> 00:07:51.180] Speaker 1: microstrategy is you have to look at the price based on mnav mnav multiple and of course [00:07:51.180 --> 00:07:56.360] Speaker 1: the bitcoin price and then take into account dilution assets on the balance sheet and i [00:07:56.360 --> 00:08:02.120] Speaker 1: don't agree with all they're doing with strc they're diluting us to buy more strc to try [00:08:02.120 --> 00:08:05.840] Speaker 1: get it back to 100 to try get the flywheel going again i don't think the flywheel is going [00:08:05.840 --> 00:08:10.440] Speaker 1: to go again maybe it will now that they're moving to daily dividends in november but i'm [00:08:10.440 --> 00:08:17.380] Speaker 1: not sure but when i share these price targets too people go oh gasp but bitcoin's [00:08:17.380 --> 00:08:21.580] Speaker 1: going to a million dollars we don't know where bitcoin's going and i always sandbag stuff [00:08:21.580 --> 00:08:27.780] Speaker 1: in fact my third video ever i said micro strategy will go to $1 ,200 by 2030. [00:08:28.320 --> 00:08:35.200] Speaker 1: And that was a 10 year out target. Okay, we didn't go to $1 ,200. We actually went to $5 [00:08:35.200 --> 00:08:42.100] Speaker 1: ,400 way earlier, like years ago. So that's how [00:08:42.100 --> 00:08:48.260] Speaker 1: I sandbag things. But I'd rather sandbag things to be cautious so people can build plans. [00:08:48.460 --> 00:08:54.720] Speaker 1: So here, my bull target for Bitcoin, if you assume it's 130k, you got microstrategy at an m [00:08:54.720 --> 00:09:01.440] Speaker 1: nav of one that would take us maybe to 270 274 230 depending on exactly [00:09:01.440 --> 00:09:06.480] Speaker 1: how much dilution there is going forward if you get to a nav premium 1 .5 it becomes 400 [00:09:06.480 --> 00:09:11.980] Speaker 1: bucks at 130k that's the difference if we get a euphoric time where bitcoin's going to the [00:09:11.980 --> 00:09:16.440] Speaker 1: moon scarcity supply crunch hits everyone wants a bit of bitcoin because they have so much [00:09:16.440 --> 00:09:21.900] Speaker 1: money from ai and they want to diversify that could happen we could go to 200k if we go to [00:09:21.900 --> 00:09:28.780] Speaker 1: 200k now i have premium of one microstrategy go to 420 bucks so that's the story but it's [00:09:28.780 --> 00:09:35.560] Speaker 1: it's based on many many different things now spacex this is my 2028 spacex target [00:09:35.560 --> 00:09:42.220] Speaker 1: which i shared with aaron burnett a while and this is a 3 .6x from here and [00:09:42.220 --> 00:09:49.020] Speaker 1: this assumes they start building out compute like crazy okay it [00:09:49.020 --> 00:09:54.780] Speaker 1: assumes they dominate the hyperscalers and neoscalers and get to over 10 gigawatts of [00:09:54.780 --> 00:10:01.460] Speaker 1: coherent compute by the year end 2027 that is the assumption behind this and if that's the [00:10:01.460 --> 00:10:08.020] Speaker 1: case guess what yeah spacex is a faster horse safer horse too by 2030 it could be [00:10:08.020 --> 00:10:14.780] Speaker 1: 902 bucks a 6 .18x also assuming they get gigawatts of space [00:10:14.780 --> 00:10:20.880] Speaker 1: -based data centers up there in space so that's what these things are based on now to [00:10:20.880 --> 00:10:25.480] Speaker 1: conclude the verdict between these two different assets they're very different assets okay [00:10:25.480 --> 00:10:32.000] Speaker 1: if you're looking through 2028 and you're looking at probability risk -based basis, [00:10:32.480 --> 00:10:38.240] Speaker 1: I would pick SpaceX as compounding. And by the way, I speak with my allocations, which I [00:10:38.240 --> 00:10:44.820] Speaker 1: share every single Tuesday. Okay, I put my money where my mouth is, [00:10:45.020 --> 00:10:51.200] Speaker 1: always. The median case, for example, at 3 .61x on microstrategy needs two things to go [00:10:51.200 --> 00:10:58.140] Speaker 1: right at the same time. Bitcoin, maybe 265k or higher, and the MNAV, maybe 1 .5. So [00:10:58.140 --> 00:11:03.900] Speaker 1: again, it's tricky. But if either one of those fails, it trails badly. And the ATM dilution [00:11:03.900 --> 00:11:09.360] Speaker 1: is a killer. That works against you on the way up. Therefore, I would say SpaceX is a [00:11:09.360 --> 00:11:15.960] Speaker 1: better deal. But right now, Microsoft is getting hit because the MCSI news, etc. Bitcoin is [00:11:15.960 --> 00:11:22.800] Speaker 1: a little bit weak as well. It's just so many variables, so much risk. I prefer sure [00:11:22.800 --> 00:11:29.160] Speaker 1: things. I believe SpaceX will be a better compounder from here on out through 2030. [00:11:29.500 --> 00:11:36.040] Speaker 1: But again, SpaceX is also very risky if they can't get new power, can't build data centers, [00:11:36.240 --> 00:11:42.000] Speaker 1: can't get Starship to be reusable, can't get data centers in space, you're cooked. But the [00:11:42.000 --> 00:11:48.520] Speaker 1: reward is worth it. The risk is high, but also [00:11:48.520 --> 00:11:52.840] Speaker 1: the upside is huge if they get it right. Anyway, we'll talk more about SpaceX right now, [00:11:52.840 --> 00:11:58.880] Speaker 1: too. This is from Sergeant X. Am I the only person with zero micron? I've been hyper [00:11:58.880 --> 00:12:03.540] Speaker 1: -focused, maybe too much stacking SpaceX, Tesla, Marvel, NVIDIA. All good names, by the [00:12:03.540 --> 00:12:08.100] Speaker 1: way, even though Tesla has not performed in the last two years. But again, we're on the [00:12:08.100 --> 00:12:12.220] Speaker 1: cusp of something big. As Elon said, you don't want to sell your Tesla stock. So he [00:12:12.220 --> 00:12:18.960] Speaker 1: wouldn't say that and lie to us. Anyhow, like the others, it feels a bit like chasing [00:12:18.960 --> 00:12:24.520] Speaker 1: Micron at this stage because of its rapid rise. And the 189 % return year -to -date sounds [00:12:24.520 --> 00:12:31.280] Speaker 1: nice, but other players have greater targets, no? tesla four digits etc tesla the tesla is [00:12:31.280 --> 00:12:36.520] Speaker 1: now a function of spacex we'll get to that in a second too like many hard not to question [00:12:36.520 --> 00:12:42.620] Speaker 1: especially if the cost basis allows for example trim tesla 20 i'd still have my retire on [00:12:42.620 --> 00:12:47.780] Speaker 1: bag and buy a micron at a thousand want to maintain my high conviction lean portfolio few [00:12:47.780 --> 00:12:53.520] Speaker 1: assets in my case i trade straight equity will be in a solo 401k account tax -free so you [00:12:53.520 --> 00:13:00.320] Speaker 1: can rotate as well so that's an option again this is this is actually pretty incredible [00:13:00.320 --> 00:13:07.280] Speaker 1: so i put together my combination assumption my merge spacex and tesla [00:13:07.280 --> 00:13:13.380] Speaker 1: and my base case for the market cap of that combined entity is 10 .32 trillion dollars and [00:13:13.380 --> 00:13:20.080] Speaker 1: micron is 3 .1 trillion dollars so the upside between micron and spacex [00:13:20.080 --> 00:13:26.760] Speaker 1: is almost identical 308 percent on spacex versus tesla [00:13:26.760 --> 00:13:32.960] Speaker 1: combined versus 310 percent for micron this was completely bizarre and the results shocked [00:13:32.960 --> 00:13:39.540] Speaker 1: me so that means it's kind of like a dead heat between both assets very unusual now the [00:13:39.540 --> 00:13:43.060] Speaker 1: other thing that's happening too we can't talk about spacex in isolation anymore because [00:13:43.060 --> 00:13:48.180] Speaker 1: the merger is going to happen here are the odds 29 by year end if you ask people like peter [00:13:48.180 --> 00:13:54.800] Speaker 1: diamantes he thinks it's in the bag year end is going to happen by year end 2027 65 chance [00:13:54.800 --> 00:14:01.300] Speaker 1: i think definitely by year end 2027 they will be one entity no doubt in my mind but the key [00:14:01.300 --> 00:14:06.880] Speaker 1: is where is the puck going to be so we have a couple of things happening we have crazy [00:14:06.880 --> 00:14:13.380] Speaker 1: stuff this is all big part of spacex is their compute big part of tesla is [00:14:13.380 --> 00:14:19.400] Speaker 1: cybercabs and optimus that's it that's the whole bowl of wax where the compute comes from [00:14:19.400 --> 00:14:25.780] Speaker 1: okay and building compute is getting harder and harder and more expensive [00:14:25.780 --> 00:14:32.480] Speaker 1: etc from switchgear to transformers to power to cooling to generators megapacks [00:14:32.480 --> 00:14:37.840] Speaker 1: whatever it keeps on going up and that's the big problem but there's only one guy that can [00:14:37.840 --> 00:14:42.620] Speaker 1: build these things fast now these are my projections of the cost of building a gigawatt of [00:14:42.620 --> 00:14:49.020] Speaker 1: compute next year year after etc currently is 50 billion next year be 58 billion maybe as [00:14:49.020 --> 00:14:53.540] Speaker 1: high as 72 depending on constraints for example memory if you can even get your hands on [00:14:53.540 --> 00:14:58.160] Speaker 1: memory that's the problem there's so many bottlenecks and constraints nobody can get this [00:14:58.160 --> 00:15:04.940] Speaker 1: done but Elon had the foresight to lock in supply for memory for vera ruben gpus for [00:15:04.940 --> 00:15:08.960] Speaker 1: power he's building his own turbines because he can't get his hands on them [00:15:10.220 --> 00:15:16.980] Speaker 1: 2028 62 billion to build a gigawatt 2030 65 billion and maybe 2032 68 billion [00:15:17.980 --> 00:15:24.880] Speaker 1: these numbers are crazy but they could be a lot higher and that's the wild card nobody [00:15:24.880 --> 00:15:28.980] Speaker 1: else can build at these scales and i've shared a whole bunch of posts this weekend from [00:15:28.980 --> 00:15:35.280] Speaker 1: andrew jesse for example at amazon they don't see any way they can get access to anything [00:15:35.280 --> 00:15:40.800] Speaker 1: until maybe year -end 2028 everybody's tapped out google's tapped out amazon's tapped out [00:15:40.800 --> 00:15:44.800] Speaker 1: microsoft's probably tapped out there's only one guy that has the compute and this could be [00:15:44.800 --> 00:15:49.860] Speaker 1: a real treasure for spacex this is oh this is the anti -jesse i have a slide on this this [00:15:49.860 --> 00:15:56.460] Speaker 1: like we're basically out of everything until 2028 late 2028 beyond [00:15:56.460 --> 00:16:03.240] Speaker 1: 2028 even so again this is not like the internet [00:16:03.240 --> 00:16:08.120] Speaker 1: .com bubble this is very different because the demand is off the hook everybody needs [00:16:08.120 --> 00:16:14.800] Speaker 1: compute but you can't build it fast enough therefore we are setting up for a huge [00:16:14.800 --> 00:16:18.660] Speaker 1: bottleneck therefore i'm extremely bullish in spacex and the other thing that makes me [00:16:18.660 --> 00:16:22.800] Speaker 1: extremely bullish in spacex are the only game in town and the whole planet that could put [00:16:22.800 --> 00:16:27.100] Speaker 1: data centers in space and people say oh that's impossible can't happen they have 11 000 [00:16:27.100 --> 00:16:32.720] Speaker 1: satellites up there already which run their own solar cooling they got chips in them they [00:16:32.720 --> 00:16:37.220] Speaker 1: just need to do it in a slightly bigger scale okay so they'll be able to get a gigawatt to [00:16:37.220 --> 00:16:43.920] Speaker 1: orbit with between 100 and 175 flights which is a lot of tonnage to orbit and they need to [00:16:43.920 --> 00:16:48.460] Speaker 1: deploy a whole bunch of satellites a1 class satellites how long it takes them to get a [00:16:48.460 --> 00:16:52.400] Speaker 1: gigawatt out there i don't know but they seem to hope to be able to get some of it up there [00:16:52.400 --> 00:16:57.900] Speaker 1: next year this is going to be very important for the story too if it fails or it slips it [00:16:57.900 --> 00:17:04.180] Speaker 1: will ding the stock that's the reality of where we are so what do you do where do you [00:17:04.180 --> 00:17:10.320] Speaker 1: rotate micron or spacex if spacex can execute and spacex becomes [00:17:10.320 --> 00:17:16.360] Speaker 1: tesla and spacex become one company that's where i believe the real compounding will happen [00:17:16.360 --> 00:17:21.260] Speaker 1: with the most incredible synergy and nobody else has what they're doing and nobody else is [00:17:21.260 --> 00:17:27.340] Speaker 1: building what they're doing as well at the same time so let's get more into this quick [00:17:27.340 --> 00:17:31.620] Speaker 1: question from lummox hey james please give us your take on roadster reveal is it a toy [00:17:31.620 --> 00:17:36.920] Speaker 1: concept car or is there a way to generate revenue here appreciate all the iit members who [00:17:36.920 --> 00:17:41.900] Speaker 1: first of all a lot of people are saying oh there's there's no way that'll be street legal [00:17:41.900 --> 00:17:46.020] Speaker 1: not going to happen And, well, the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, said, we will make sure [00:17:46.020 --> 00:17:50.820] Speaker 1: Tesla's flying roadster is street legal in Florida. Florida wins again. Anyway, shout out [00:17:50.820 --> 00:17:55.320] Speaker 1: to anybody in Florida if they're here. Also, the bad, my takeaway from the bad from the [00:17:55.320 --> 00:18:00.260] Speaker 1: roadster reveal, the flying version is infight only. It'll be for people with their own [00:18:00.260 --> 00:18:06.880] Speaker 1: tracks or compounds or whatever. And, of course, a flying car won't be road legal, at least [00:18:06.880 --> 00:18:13.440] Speaker 1: not for a decade plus, in my opinion. and elon admits it's not optimized for safety [00:18:13.440 --> 00:18:19.700] Speaker 1: and it won't be ready till 2028 they're all the dings and it will not be a needle mover for [00:18:19.700 --> 00:18:26.280] Speaker 1: revenue at all but it is a brand mover that's the whole thing it gets the attention [00:18:26.280 --> 00:18:31.300] Speaker 1: of the minds and the ultra billionaires and the super rich and middle east and other places [00:18:31.300 --> 00:18:35.960] Speaker 1: will want one of these things plus the track version looks incredible especially with that [00:18:35.960 --> 00:18:42.020] Speaker 1: suction anyway the good news uh a big part of it i believe is kind of like a tesla spacex [00:18:42.020 --> 00:18:48.960] Speaker 1: merger roadshow a lot of hints coming out from elon musk etc he's talking about tesla x [00:18:48.960 --> 00:18:54.380] Speaker 1: spacex you know the combo it does defy physics it's definitely the most amazing product [00:18:54.380 --> 00:19:00.020] Speaker 1: demo i've ever seen in my life and i want to test it myself on the norwich life if you know [00:19:00.020 --> 00:19:06.240] Speaker 1: what that is this year to 60 would probably smash my organs on my spine but anyway it's fun [00:19:06.240 --> 00:19:12.420] Speaker 1: real value suction downforce and thruster last manually driven car which is also [00:19:12.420 --> 00:19:19.380] Speaker 1: great to see because their future their future is optimus and cybercabs not this thing [00:19:20.000 --> 00:19:25.120] Speaker 1: but it does grab attention a lot of attention also triggers a lot of people so that's kind [00:19:25.120 --> 00:19:30.920] Speaker 1: of the good and the bad of the whole thing that i see but the big big lesson is and elon [00:19:30.920 --> 00:19:35.840] Speaker 1: said it himself in a tweet a few hours ago he said optimus and cyber cap will be the vast [00:19:35.840 --> 00:19:41.740] Speaker 1: majority of tesla value and they will scale to incredible size kardashiev too and beyond [00:19:41.740 --> 00:19:47.060] Speaker 1: but of course you have to have the first two for the rest to follow he said the roadster is [00:19:47.060 --> 00:19:52.980] Speaker 1: super cool and that's why they're doing it because it's super cool and it also wins the [00:19:52.980 --> 00:19:57.480] Speaker 1: hearts and minds of engineers and attracts engineers to tesla and spacex so they can build [00:19:57.480 --> 00:20:04.060] Speaker 1: cool stuff like this as well anyhow um that's the way i see it next question is from tx [00:20:04.060 --> 00:20:10.940] Speaker 1: ronin and this is a crypto question it's good to see crypto questions back we've [00:20:10.940 --> 00:20:16.800] Speaker 1: seen solana dominates ai agents today but looking a few years out sui's object central [00:20:16.800 --> 00:20:21.800] Speaker 1: centric model and new native quantum safe milestones seem to offer a much safer, [00:20:22.160 --> 00:20:28.460] Speaker 1: horizontally scalable architecture for autonomous AI treasuries. As investors hunting for [00:20:28.460 --> 00:20:34.000] Speaker 1: asymmetric upside, do you see this quantum AI synergy as a true fundamental paradigm shift? [00:20:34.280 --> 00:20:38.800] Speaker 1: If so, what is your playbook for rotation strategy? A lot of rotation talk today. [00:20:39.000 --> 00:20:43.020] Speaker 1: Specifically, if we do not have the capital to deploy, should we rotate and accumulate sui [00:20:43.020 --> 00:20:47.180] Speaker 1: now while it's building the tech or wait two to three years to capture some solid upside [00:20:47.180 --> 00:20:52.800] Speaker 1: until the quantum threat is closer and the AI agent migration actually begins. Let's have a [00:20:52.800 --> 00:20:58.220] Speaker 1: look at all the data. First of all, you're right, Solana does dominate AI agent [00:20:58.220 --> 00:21:04.960] Speaker 1: transactions. It runs, I think, 76 % of them, X402. And Sui's [00:21:04.960 --> 00:21:10.120] Speaker 1: facilitator is still on the test net. It's not even out. Sui's problem also is not [00:21:10.120 --> 00:21:16.900] Speaker 1: technology, it's adoption. I always talk about adoption and distribution and the attraction [00:21:16.900 --> 00:21:23.800] Speaker 1: of dApps, etc. But users, there's not much user adoption, not [00:21:23.800 --> 00:21:29.140] Speaker 1: much stablecoin adoption, not much liquidity and TVL, etc. And wallets and revenue [00:21:29.140 --> 00:21:34.920] Speaker 1: generating apps are also kind of missing, despite all the pumpers. Let's have a look at [00:21:34.920 --> 00:21:40.800] Speaker 1: some real data. okay let's look at uh daily transactions um [00:21:40.800 --> 00:21:47.520] Speaker 1: for both chains so suede is 9 million salon does 146 million that's [00:21:47.520 --> 00:21:54.400] Speaker 1: 1500 percent more daily active users suede is 120 000 salon has over 5 million 5 .2 million [00:21:54.400 --> 00:22:00.900] Speaker 1: daily fees 2 800 bucks versus 624k 24 hour period 22 000 percent more [00:22:00.900 --> 00:22:07.680] Speaker 1: that's just one part of it the other part is sui versus solid tvl tvl is 1100 percent more [00:22:07.680 --> 00:22:14.680] Speaker 1: 492 million versus 6 billion dex volume 16 million versus 10 billion stablecoin [00:22:14.680 --> 00:22:21.420] Speaker 1: market cap 589 million versus 16 .4 billion again not even in the same universe [00:22:21.420 --> 00:22:23.320] Speaker 1: we're talking 1100 better [00:22:24.860 --> 00:22:30.940] Speaker 1: 58 ,500 % better, 2 ,700 % better. It's just different. [00:22:31.820 --> 00:22:38.160] Speaker 1: Now, other thing as well, there's some little headwinds here, which may catch you by [00:22:38.160 --> 00:22:42.460] Speaker 1: surprise. And you seem to realize some of this as well. But the trend is going the wrong [00:22:42.460 --> 00:22:48.940] Speaker 1: way for Sui. First of all, TVL collapse. Sui's TVL has fallen from nearly $3 billion a year [00:22:48.940 --> 00:22:54.780] Speaker 1: ago to half a billion today. Why? What happened? Also, wallet support. [00:22:55.540 --> 00:23:00.240] Speaker 1: Phantom dropped Sui wallet support. Phantom was a huge avenue. And in fact, when I heard [00:23:00.240 --> 00:23:03.360] Speaker 1: that announcement, I said, this is going to be great for Sui and other players. Anyway, [00:23:04.060 --> 00:23:08.100] Speaker 1: Phantom dropped it because there's no usage. There's no money, there's no fun. And then [00:23:08.100 --> 00:23:12.420] Speaker 1: there's some developer friction as well. Sui uses the Move language, so developers can't [00:23:12.420 --> 00:23:17.480] Speaker 1: just copy their EVM apps across. And these are three very distinct headwinds that are [00:23:17.480 --> 00:23:18.360] Speaker 1: causing a bit of a pain. [00:23:19.780 --> 00:23:25.520] Speaker 1: Also, let's talk about the reality versus talk. A lot of times after the annual show for [00:23:25.520 --> 00:23:31.640] Speaker 1: SUI, a lot of talk. First of all, quantum safe, it's a roadmap race, but there's no need to [00:23:31.640 --> 00:23:33.340] Speaker 1: be worried about quantum for now. [00:23:35.220 --> 00:23:40.980] Speaker 1: It's not a shipped advantage. So for example, SUI on DevNet mainnet Q1 2027, Solana shipped [00:23:40.980 --> 00:23:47.520] Speaker 1: opt -in resistant vault already, AI agents, Solana handles 76 % of them. Sui [00:23:47.520 --> 00:23:52.080] Speaker 1: Faciliteria is still in test, so it's not actually live yet. And then Finality is the [00:23:52.080 --> 00:23:57.020] Speaker 1: product for AI agents. I've covered this a thousand times. Sui is 390 milliseconds. Solana [00:23:57.020 --> 00:24:03.900] Speaker 1: is targeting 150 milliseconds. In, let me see, three days. Three days it goes live. So [00:24:03.900 --> 00:24:10.240] Speaker 1: Alpenglow goes live. And most importantly, too, this goes back to kind of adoption and [00:24:10.240 --> 00:24:15.780] Speaker 1: liquidity and revenue and usage. Remember, I always think of a blockchain like a shopping [00:24:15.780 --> 00:24:20.420] Speaker 1: mall. You have your anchor stores and you have all of your dApps and that attracts the [00:24:20.420 --> 00:24:23.820] Speaker 1: customers. And then there's cross -pollination between all of these different stores. [00:24:24.040 --> 00:24:28.080] Speaker 1: People go into the mall to get, I don't know, a coffee and then they end up buying [00:24:28.080 --> 00:24:30.940] Speaker 1: something from another place. That is the value, okay? [00:24:32.040 --> 00:24:32.480] UNKNOWN: Now, [00:24:32.480 --> 00:24:38.700] Speaker 1: your thought of AI agents choosing a chain because it's quantum safe? The truth is, AI [00:24:38.700 --> 00:24:44.620] Speaker 1: agents don't give a rat's ass. They don't care, okay? They want finality. They want [00:24:44.620 --> 00:24:51.180] Speaker 1: liquidity. They want to be on a loop. They want to do this hundreds of times a day. [00:24:51.860 --> 00:24:56.920] Speaker 1: And that's what they care about, not the quantum safety. They want things to be reliable as [00:24:56.920 --> 00:25:02.140] Speaker 1: well. That's the key. So again, don't pin your hopes and dreams to all this quantum talk. [00:25:02.280 --> 00:25:07.760] Speaker 1: For years, I've been saying quantum is way, way, way. Ignore it for now. Be far more [00:25:07.760 --> 00:25:13.820] Speaker 1: concerned with AI and that adoption. So hope that helps. Next question is from Mr. Burns. [00:25:15.220 --> 00:25:18.540] Speaker 1: Interesting one as well, because I hinted at this in my video with Joe Bakhti. By the way, [00:25:18.620 --> 00:25:23.700] Speaker 1: Joe Bakhti is back on the show next Friday, same time, 10 a .m. Pacific, I think 7 Central [00:25:23.700 --> 00:25:30.200] Speaker 1: European time. This is from Mr. Burns. Mr. Burns wants to know if the idea [00:25:30.200 --> 00:25:35.800] Speaker 1: that meta, open AI, anthropic, et cetera, were to naturally shift to the biotech space, [00:25:35.940 --> 00:25:40.780] Speaker 1: would it change my opinion and ownership of neither of the frontier labs, open AI or [00:25:40.780 --> 00:25:46.520] Speaker 1: anthropic? everything else aside if they were the gatekeepers to most of all massive health [00:25:46.520 --> 00:25:53.200] Speaker 1: breakthroughs they could sell to big pharma reef massive profits from you name it cures for [00:25:53.200 --> 00:25:59.980] Speaker 1: cancer etc etc as they go forward so this is a a very very big topic and i [00:25:59.980 --> 00:26:05.620] Speaker 1: did hint on this before in a previous video and i do believe i do believe they're thinking [00:26:05.620 --> 00:26:10.840] Speaker 1: about this so for example some anecdotal bread crumbs that i have one anthropic has already [00:26:10.840 --> 00:26:16.680] Speaker 1: set up a wet lab in san francisco and they're looking into leveraging their ai capabilities [00:26:16.680 --> 00:26:23.420] Speaker 1: to identify new drug capabilities also it's rumored that open ai have already started [00:26:23.420 --> 00:26:28.220] Speaker 1: investing in version 6 and version 7 of their product but they are putting 70 to 80 percent [00:26:28.220 --> 00:26:33.100] Speaker 1: of their compute into this version 6 and version 7 so they can in turn build stuff for [00:26:33.100 --> 00:26:38.520] Speaker 1: themselves what that is we don't know but it's not really designed for the public market [00:26:38.520 --> 00:26:44.420] Speaker 1: you know if you've got all this great super intelligence why not keep it for yourself [00:26:44.420 --> 00:26:47.980] Speaker 1: rather than sharing it with the world you know don't give away your super intelligence to [00:26:47.980 --> 00:26:52.840] Speaker 1: big pharma that can build their own drugs when you can do it yourself i definitely think [00:26:52.840 --> 00:26:57.420] Speaker 1: that's happening i see all the breadcrumbs that point in that direction also what's bigger [00:26:57.420 --> 00:27:03.220] Speaker 1: than ai glp1 weight loss drugs make more money that's hard to believe but it's true now [00:27:03.220 --> 00:27:10.220] Speaker 1: how will this play out i'm not sure but a couple of things i do believe could [00:27:10.220 --> 00:27:16.920] Speaker 1: happen one uh i do believe uh medical breakthroughs are a top priority for the labs not [00:27:16.920 --> 00:27:23.800] Speaker 1: only because of all this ai safety kind of garbage over the last few weeks or months but if [00:27:23.800 --> 00:27:29.820] Speaker 1: for example ai cures cancer. Can you imagine how good that is for the PR, for AI? [00:27:30.140 --> 00:27:36.260] Speaker 1: Absolutely massive. And they are doing a lot of investing in this area. And OpenAI is [00:27:36.260 --> 00:27:41.960] Speaker 1: talking about things like building 50x improvements in stem cell markers as well, which is [00:27:41.960 --> 00:27:47.520] Speaker 1: critical to curing of any complex cancers too. And the prize is enormous. The current big [00:27:47.520 --> 00:27:54.060] Speaker 1: pharma market's $2 .3 trillion. Now, can you imagine if you crack longevity [00:27:54.060 --> 00:27:58.120] Speaker 1: you can make people live 10 years longer how much would a billionaire pay to live 10 years [00:27:58.120 --> 00:28:04.660] Speaker 1: longer the answer is billions um how much would people pay to cure their cancer or [00:28:04.660 --> 00:28:11.300] Speaker 1: whatever ailment they have trillions billions i mean the market's huge and the ai labs know [00:28:11.300 --> 00:28:15.860] Speaker 1: this they may not be able to make it up on 20 a month subscriptions but if they have a [00:28:15.860 --> 00:28:22.340] Speaker 1: breakthrough it's a very quick way to huge money. Now, the other angle of this as well, and [00:28:22.340 --> 00:28:28.900] Speaker 1: I do know enough about the big pharma biotech industry to be dangerous, but [00:28:28.900 --> 00:28:32.920] Speaker 1: I don't think the air labs want to become drug owners. I think they want to be able to [00:28:32.920 --> 00:28:39.840] Speaker 1: identify the breakthrough and then sell that to the Salofis, the Novo [00:28:39.840 --> 00:28:46.620] Speaker 1: Nordics, the Genentex, whatever, the Pfizer's of the world, and sell them the IP. [00:28:46.980 --> 00:28:52.020] Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to be running pipelines and human trials and all that type of [00:28:52.020 --> 00:28:57.460] Speaker 1: stuff or dealing with the FDA. Too much high headache. So my thoughts is, yes, they will [00:28:57.460 --> 00:29:02.520] Speaker 1: use their compute to discover new breakthroughs. And then they'll license those [00:29:02.520 --> 00:29:06.440] Speaker 1: breakthroughs to big pharma so they can handle all the nitty gritty stuff. That takes years [00:29:06.440 --> 00:29:11.900] Speaker 1: as well. FDA approval, human trials, et cetera. But they'll take the upfronts and all the [00:29:11.900 --> 00:29:17.660] Speaker 1: royalties in advance. And that'll avoid spending years wasting time dealing with government [00:29:17.660 --> 00:29:22.660] Speaker 1: agencies and tests, et cetera. So I think they're definitely doing it. And I think this is [00:29:22.660 --> 00:29:25.800] Speaker 1: how they would play it. This is what I would do if I was them. Identify the breakthrough, [00:29:26.200 --> 00:29:31.580] Speaker 1: sell it. Identify another one, sell it. And the good news is, there's going to be so many [00:29:31.580 --> 00:29:34.520] Speaker 1: medical breakthroughs over the next three to five years, it's going to be mind -blowing. [00:29:34.880 --> 00:29:39.780] Speaker 1: And that should give everybody a very positive view of AI. Of course, there will be some [00:29:39.780 --> 00:29:46.120] Speaker 1: negatives of AI, Things like maybe bank accounts will be hacked or government agencies are [00:29:46.120 --> 00:29:49.960] Speaker 1: already being hacked. We just saw the Danish government lost all their citizens' [00:29:50.240 --> 00:29:54.820] Speaker 1: information. We know the French government is looking to capture all citizen information [00:29:54.820 --> 00:29:59.260] Speaker 1: about how much Bitcoin, crypto they have. Can you imagine the honeypot? Imagine how easy it [00:29:59.260 --> 00:30:03.760] Speaker 1: is to break into a government entity. These are the downsides, but the upsides are also [00:30:03.760 --> 00:30:10.200] Speaker 1: heavy. So, hope that helps. And this week as well, we donated to Chaba, Chaba the baby [00:30:10.200 --> 00:30:13.840] Speaker 1: elephant. and this is a favorite part of the week as well before we get into the live q a [00:30:14.540 --> 00:30:20.980] Speaker 1: we are investing in save the elephant in thailand program to help care food and shelter and [00:30:20.980 --> 00:30:25.180] Speaker 1: medical needs for the animals there and that's shabba the baby elephant her and her mom had [00:30:25.180 --> 00:30:30.260] Speaker 1: a very hard life in an elephant show and riding camp but now they're in a sanctuary where [00:30:30.260 --> 00:30:34.900] Speaker 1: they can shine and have a good time so big thank you we love our elephants and i hope you [00:30:34.900 --> 00:30:38.880] Speaker 1: all learned something let's get some live questions sorry about that audio screw up at the [00:30:38.880 --> 00:30:45.100] Speaker 1: beginning but that's what i'm best at screwing up audio we're back on the edge browser [00:30:45.100 --> 00:30:49.040] Speaker 1: which i've never used for anything else but this all right let's get into the live question [00:30:49.040 --> 00:30:55.920] Speaker 1: and thanks again to the mods in the chat uh bryce assets if you weren't good at options and [00:30:55.920 --> 00:31:01.840] Speaker 1: are a long hold investor had half of your personal wealth and pure bitcoin and cold storage [00:31:01.840 --> 00:31:06.480] Speaker 1: wallets would you one keep them there where they are or two take the tax hit and turn some [00:31:06.480 --> 00:31:13.100] Speaker 1: or all into etfs or i 13 so bryce we now live in a world where you can [00:31:13.100 --> 00:31:18.300] Speaker 1: deposit your bitcoin from your cold storage wallet to a company like fidelity or other [00:31:18.300 --> 00:31:22.840] Speaker 1: people and they will custody it for you no fees then because you're not selling you don't [00:31:22.840 --> 00:31:27.360] Speaker 1: incur taxes and at those places you can also borrow against your bitcoin so we've come [00:31:27.360 --> 00:31:32.620] Speaker 1: we've come to the stage of bitcoin maturity where things are actually great and schwab also [00:31:32.620 --> 00:31:35.600] Speaker 1: announced this week they're going to do the same thing that you'll be able to send your [00:31:35.600 --> 00:31:42.560] Speaker 1: bitcoin into their custody accounts um and that's what i did by the way i sent [00:31:42.560 --> 00:31:47.440] Speaker 1: mine into fidelity so not financial advice i hope they well they'll definitely have better [00:31:47.440 --> 00:31:53.460] Speaker 1: security than i would but uh i i hope that helps um what you could do as well if your long [00:31:53.460 --> 00:31:58.360] Speaker 1: -term capital gains you know don't worry about that 20 or whatever you got to pay um i do [00:31:58.360 --> 00:32:02.320] Speaker 1: believe there are faster horses than bitcoin unless of course we get the supply crunch and [00:32:02.320 --> 00:32:08.820] Speaker 1: everything goes to the moon that's also theoretically possible but i don't know i do think [00:32:08.820 --> 00:32:15.580] Speaker 1: we're in the diminishing returns phase of bitcoin the good old glory days of [00:32:15.580 --> 00:32:22.380] Speaker 1: the 21x's are probably over unless of course we get the supply crunch i don't know there's [00:32:22.380 --> 00:32:29.100] Speaker 1: just so much so many new shiny toys out there in the market to invest in uh buckhorn thank [00:32:29.100 --> 00:32:35.660] Speaker 1: you james for all that you do uh both bought broadcom in the last dip and what would be the [00:32:35.660 --> 00:32:42.560] Speaker 1: expected kegger and the retire for the retire on model i have my excuse me i [00:32:42.560 --> 00:32:49.180] Speaker 1: gotta dig dig up my my broadcom target if i can find them hang on a second um [00:32:51.010 --> 00:32:57.070] Speaker 1: 13 price targets yes i haven't i haven't punched it to i haven't done a retire on for [00:32:57.070 --> 00:33:03.810] Speaker 1: broadcom but uh my bull target for 2030 is 1300 and that's a 6 [00:33:03.810 --> 00:33:10.710] Speaker 1: .3 x from here so that's a print that's the second 6 .6 .1 x 6 .2 x 6 .3 x so [00:33:10.710 --> 00:33:17.450] Speaker 1: far today uh so that's where i see it going the custom chip market's massive and they're a [00:33:17.450 --> 00:33:23.210] Speaker 1: huge player along with amd so i and they've done a lot of really big deals now the bear [00:33:23.210 --> 00:33:30.070] Speaker 1: target on the other side is about 550 so depending on where we go i think you easily get to [00:33:30.070 --> 00:33:36.890] Speaker 1: 550 but anyway that's the target for that in terms of broadcom is one of those areas [00:33:36.890 --> 00:33:43.090] Speaker 1: was my smallest i13 allocation and we got back then that big dip last week i thought it was [00:33:43.090 --> 00:33:47.810] Speaker 1: good we could get more red next week and then we'll see we'll see if we double down even [00:33:47.810 --> 00:33:53.670] Speaker 1: more as well uh row one one hi james Last week, Q &A, you put Broadcom, A -Lab, Marvel in [00:33:53.670 --> 00:33:59.910] Speaker 1: the top tier. Which of these do you think 3X is first from here? Marvel, maybe A -Lab. [00:34:01.770 --> 00:34:08.730] Speaker 1: I just went through the Broadcom. So I think Marvel is currently a $200 billion company. [00:34:09.010 --> 00:34:14.750] Speaker 1: It's going to get to a trillion. I don't know when. Actually, let me check now that I have [00:34:14.750 --> 00:34:19.930] Speaker 1: it here. Marvel could go as high as $1 ,500. That is my bull target for 2030. [00:34:21.190 --> 00:34:28.190] Speaker 1: And that would be a very, very juicy CAGR of 71 .34%. By the way, the CAGR on Broadcom [00:34:28.190 --> 00:34:35.090] Speaker 1: is about 40 % from here. So Marvel is one of my high flyers, but also don't [00:34:35.090 --> 00:34:41.930] Speaker 1: discount the big Musk industry one as well. But either way, AI [00:34:41.930 --> 00:34:47.690] Speaker 1: is not slowing down. The names are fantastic. And things like connectivity is extremely [00:34:47.690 --> 00:34:52.990] Speaker 1: important in data centers. and marvel are doing some of the best work there too so roe and [00:34:52.990 --> 00:34:59.630] Speaker 1: buckhorn and bryce i hope that helps um a big thank you to dbf of course [00:34:59.630 --> 00:35:06.090] Speaker 1: piper dbf again hello you kayla b -man roe signal 103 nalem [00:35:06.090 --> 00:35:12.830] Speaker 1: appreciate you all and of course sean d tnd cypher sniper k8 have a good [00:35:12.830 --> 00:35:17.970] Speaker 1: evening we did that in 40 minutes. That's excellent. Including sound interruption at the [00:35:17.970 --> 00:35:20.150] Speaker 1: beginning. Alright, goodnight everybody. See you tomorrow. Bye.