1 00:00:06,930 --> 00:00:13,770 Speaker 1: hello a little different today we're not going to do bitcoin microstrider because nothing 2 00:00:13,770 --> 00:00:18,570 Speaker 1: basically has happened it's like every week is the same so but we will talk about bitcoin 3 00:00:18,570 --> 00:00:22,470 Speaker 1: at the end of this video and we have a live poll going and i want to thank everybody for 4 00:00:22,470 --> 00:00:27,790 Speaker 1: coming i really do appreciate you all coming up here every day and uh thank you for taking 5 00:00:27,790 --> 00:00:34,350 Speaker 1: the time this one i think about this one a lot space spacex compute 6 00:00:34,350 --> 00:00:41,250 Speaker 1: moats and i have been burning my brains on this one now for 7 00:00:41,250 --> 00:00:47,830 Speaker 1: oh well since even before the ipo and i'm just going to look at the business 8 00:00:47,830 --> 00:00:54,730 Speaker 1: the rumors the mergers the odds the valuations and yet another 9 00:00:54,730 --> 00:01:01,190 Speaker 1: price prediction models So we're up to like 12 or 13 now. And just on compute alone, 10 00:01:01,190 --> 00:01:06,390 Speaker 1: that's a very interesting thing. Big thank you to CyberSniper, Sean D, TND, K8 for being 11 00:01:06,390 --> 00:01:11,770 Speaker 1: here. And of course, Bookhorn, GQTrader, and B -Man. Love you guys. Let's get into it. And 12 00:01:11,770 --> 00:01:18,130 Speaker 1: this sounds like copium, crazy, bullishness, etc. But I've done the numbers. And I've also 13 00:01:18,130 --> 00:01:25,030 Speaker 1: analyzed the competition. And I tell you, the results are insane. Anyway, hope my mic is 14 00:01:25,030 --> 00:01:26,130 Speaker 1: working. I think it is. 15 00:01:27,810 --> 00:01:32,530 Speaker 1: Let's go. Not financial advice. Just a guy on the internet. Shout out to Donna Felix. I 16 00:01:32,530 --> 00:01:36,190 Speaker 1: love the information you share with us. And I enjoy being part of your Patreon family. 17 00:01:36,550 --> 00:01:41,290 Speaker 1: Thank you, Donna. We love to have women in the community. We're still dominated by men, 18 00:01:41,490 --> 00:01:47,130 Speaker 1: probably 92, 93%. But one day, hopefully we'll get to 10 % female. Anyway, 19 00:01:47,430 --> 00:01:53,930 Speaker 1: let's move on. First of all the big story is just how much 20 00:01:53,930 --> 00:01:59,930 Speaker 1: elon has been tweeting and how extremely bullish he is it is almost 21 00:01:59,930 --> 00:02:06,570 Speaker 1: bonkers it's almost like he's hallucinating or something but when you look at all the 22 00:02:06,570 --> 00:02:12,670 Speaker 1: numbers and back them all down it may be he's on to something but basically he has never 23 00:02:13,950 --> 00:02:20,910 Speaker 1: ever in the history sounded this bullish on spacex okay uh you know he 24 00:02:20,910 --> 00:02:26,950 Speaker 1: now is talking about spacex being worth over a hundred trillion dollars in 10 years okay 25 00:02:26,950 --> 00:02:32,830 Speaker 1: that's a 50x from here from where we are and he backed it up with post after post after 26 00:02:32,830 --> 00:02:38,310 Speaker 1: post so the reason i'm making this video is should you own some spacex and how bullish 27 00:02:38,310 --> 00:02:43,550 Speaker 1: should you be and i'm going to share all the receipts in detail and this video today is 28 00:02:43,550 --> 00:02:48,690 Speaker 1: backed up by many real live tweets as well so you can go dig them up yourself and sometimes 29 00:02:48,690 --> 00:02:53,010 Speaker 1: the best value of a tweet is looking at the comments below it too little tip there but here 30 00:02:53,010 --> 00:02:59,710 Speaker 1: this is the spacex compute roadmap q4 2026 and i want to take a second on this 31 00:02:59,710 --> 00:03:05,650 Speaker 1: not only is this compute roadmap insane but they're ramping way faster than anybody else 32 00:03:05,650 --> 00:03:11,310 Speaker 1: they're the only people that can build coherent compute they're the only people that can 33 00:03:11,310 --> 00:03:17,550 Speaker 1: build the energy the cooling they can build a facility in 20 weeks they can set up 100 000 34 00:03:17,550 --> 00:03:23,530 Speaker 1: gpus in like 90 days which or is it whatever whatever days it was that jensen said it was 35 00:03:23,530 --> 00:03:30,210 Speaker 1: super superhuman most other competitors takes two to four years to do this this is the big 36 00:03:30,210 --> 00:03:36,690 Speaker 1: problem. Now, I'm not talking bottlenecks. I'm talking scarcity. We're moving into a world 37 00:03:36,690 --> 00:03:42,250 Speaker 1: where I can prove a thousand ways to Sunday that the demand for compute is going completely 38 00:03:42,250 --> 00:03:42,810 Speaker 1: parabolic. 39 00:03:44,270 --> 00:03:50,590 Speaker 1: But what's not going parabolic is the ability to scale to deliver that compute. That's 40 00:03:50,590 --> 00:03:55,370 Speaker 1: where this story gets very interesting. There's one player on the planet that can do it 41 00:03:55,370 --> 00:04:00,950 Speaker 1: fast and efficiently and in a coherent manner that nobody else has been able to stream more 42 00:04:00,950 --> 00:04:07,030 Speaker 1: than 30 ,000 GPUs together. Elon does 220 ,000 GPUs again and again and again and again. 43 00:04:07,390 --> 00:04:12,050 Speaker 1: That's the point of this slide. So before we do anything else, I just want to lay the 44 00:04:12,050 --> 00:04:17,770 Speaker 1: groundwork with this. Not hopium, but real facts. Okay, and we have the earnings call as 45 00:04:17,770 --> 00:04:22,390 Speaker 1: well tomorrow, if I'm not mistaken. And then Tesla on Wednesday is going to be a big week, 46 00:04:22,750 --> 00:04:29,710 Speaker 1: exciting week. But Colossus 100, 50 ,000 H100s, 50K H200s, 30K GB200s. Colossus 2, 47 00:04:29,990 --> 00:04:36,950 Speaker 1: 110 ,000 GB200s, 440 ,000 GB300s. That's monstrous. And then 48 00:04:36,950 --> 00:04:42,690 Speaker 1: he's building another 220K GB300s, which will be fully operational next week. That was 49 00:04:42,690 --> 00:04:48,410 Speaker 1: October 1st. That's up and running. Another 220K in November. We're heading into November 50 00:04:48,410 --> 00:04:54,690 Speaker 1: in, what, two weeks? and if we get lucky another 220k it must be that sweet sweet spot 51 00:04:54,690 --> 00:04:59,930 Speaker 1: where he can ramp these very fast by late december putting this all together is a monstrous 52 00:04:59,930 --> 00:05:05,290 Speaker 1: amount of compute and as i say he or she who has the most compute wins and that's the 53 00:05:05,290 --> 00:05:12,110 Speaker 1: simple story but there's more now this is a place called brownsville 54 00:05:12,110 --> 00:05:17,070 Speaker 1: texas it's near starbase and they are building there and moving fast and i think this is 55 00:05:17,070 --> 00:05:22,950 Speaker 1: where they're going to house, not one of those little micro harders, these smaller 56 00:05:22,950 --> 00:05:27,730 Speaker 1: buildings that have the same amount of compute, but a bunch of them at the same time. And 57 00:05:27,730 --> 00:05:34,210 Speaker 1: according to CERN Basher, friend of the channel, shout out to CERN, he looked into this 58 00:05:34,210 --> 00:05:40,950 Speaker 1: and some other data available, but they have 444 .45 acres, they have water, 59 00:05:41,610 --> 00:05:47,830 Speaker 1: they have the land, they've got the buildings they've got the 400 megawatts of wind 60 00:05:47,830 --> 00:05:54,730 Speaker 1: turbines on site for one mini heart and they'll do more okay and they can make at least 22 61 00:05:54,730 --> 00:06:01,330 Speaker 1: billion a year on the 220 000 mini hearts gb300s and 30 billion on 62 00:06:01,330 --> 00:06:08,270 Speaker 1: 220 000 vera rubens when are they getting the vera rubens very soon and i will get to 63 00:06:08,270 --> 00:06:13,090 Speaker 1: some rumors later that i heard from very good sources that we may be able to take to the 64 00:06:13,090 --> 00:06:19,790 Speaker 1: bank and they can spin all these up in 20 weeks okay six buildings could be 132 to 65 00:06:19,790 --> 00:06:26,470 Speaker 1: 180 billion dollars in revenue per year that's monstrous 180 billion dollars is 66 00:06:26,470 --> 00:06:30,390 Speaker 1: basically twice the revenue that tesla makes after being in operation for nearly two 67 00:06:30,390 --> 00:06:30,770 Speaker 1: decades 68 00:06:32,610 --> 00:06:39,350 Speaker 1: again they've they've found a way of pivoting rocket scientists into 69 00:06:39,350 --> 00:06:44,050 Speaker 1: building data centers better, quicker, faster than anybody else. That's the big story. Then 70 00:06:44,050 --> 00:06:50,990 Speaker 1: Ron Barron came out and he sees SpaceX being worth $50 trillion in 10 years. That's a 71 00:06:50,990 --> 00:06:55,810 Speaker 1: 25x from here. Yes, 10 years is a long time. I know, I know. Stay healthy, my friends. 72 00:06:56,070 --> 00:07:02,870 Speaker 1: That's what I say. Thank you for coming. But Ron Barron knows that he has huge bags in both 73 00:07:02,870 --> 00:07:08,050 Speaker 1: SpaceX and Tesla. He's a big believer in elon musk and has been for a long time and again 74 00:07:08,050 --> 00:07:13,250 Speaker 1: this is a combination of things like starlink alone would be worth 14 to 15 trillion of 75 00:07:13,250 --> 00:07:18,930 Speaker 1: that 50 trillion so consider one -third starlink but i think there's more value in a whole 76 00:07:18,930 --> 00:07:25,130 Speaker 1: bunch of other things too anyway this is 25x but that's not the important tweet 50 trillion 77 00:07:25,130 --> 00:07:31,510 Speaker 1: 25x it's what elon said he said unless there's a major world war spacex probably gets to 78 00:07:31,510 --> 00:07:37,770 Speaker 1: more than 100 trillion dollars in less than 10 years more than 100 trillion less than 10 79 00:07:37,770 --> 00:07:44,530 Speaker 1: years this is my favorite dr evil 100 trillion dollars it's 80 00:07:44,530 --> 00:07:49,950 Speaker 1: bonkers numbers we'll get to the valuation model and the price predictions in a minute and 81 00:07:49,950 --> 00:07:54,330 Speaker 1: we'll get to why i've said for a long time how many spacex shares you need to have a 82 00:07:54,330 --> 00:08:01,050 Speaker 1: different future but this is crazy crazy and you know he knows that tweets don't go 83 00:08:01,050 --> 00:08:05,130 Speaker 1: anywhere there's people that have bookmarked this a thousand times maybe 10 000 times maybe 84 00:08:05,130 --> 00:08:10,330 Speaker 1: a million times again greater than 100 trillion dollars in valuation in less than a decade 85 00:08:10,330 --> 00:08:15,910 Speaker 1: insane now the other thing that's completely insane too is the spacex total address in 86 00:08:15,910 --> 00:08:21,970 Speaker 1: market they had it in the s1 i read the s1 twice, $28 .5 trillion. 87 00:08:22,810 --> 00:08:29,270 Speaker 1: And James Katz said SpaceX claims its TAM is $28 .5 trillion. No offense, Elon, but I will 88 00:08:29,270 --> 00:08:34,510 Speaker 1: need to verify that independently from the comfort of my own bedroom. Elon Musk said, we 89 00:08:34,510 --> 00:08:41,450 Speaker 1: are wrong. It's vastly higher than that. So the TAM of $28 .5 trillion, which blew 90 00:08:41,450 --> 00:08:47,410 Speaker 1: people's socks off, they said it's wrong. Now, the key thing is I build a lot of my price 91 00:08:47,410 --> 00:08:52,850 Speaker 1: prediction models off of total address for markets. Then I calculate market share. Then I 92 00:08:52,850 --> 00:08:58,470 Speaker 1: calculate revenue and profitability and all that type of stuff. If the TAM is wrong, that 93 00:08:58,470 --> 00:09:05,050 Speaker 1: means every model I have built so far is wrong. It means it's completely understated. Very 94 00:09:05,050 --> 00:09:11,870 Speaker 1: important to understand how I model things out. Insane. Hey, Mike, good to see you. And 95 00:09:11,870 --> 00:09:18,370 Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley says, everybody has ignored the real engine. Think about 96 00:09:18,370 --> 00:09:22,790 Speaker 1: inference from space, data centers in space, but also terrestrial data centers are going to 97 00:09:22,790 --> 00:09:28,710 Speaker 1: be huge because of the point I mentioned at the very beginning. Nobody has enough and 98 00:09:28,710 --> 00:09:33,510 Speaker 1: demand is off the hook and you can't build these things. You can't hook up the power. You 99 00:09:33,510 --> 00:09:38,310 Speaker 1: can't get the professional trades in, nothing. and Morgan Stanley was in a room full of 100 00:09:38,310 --> 00:09:44,490 Speaker 1: people and he asked, does anybody own SpaceX? Not one hand went up, not one. 101 00:09:45,590 --> 00:09:52,530 Speaker 1: Now, he also said, it is the whole SpaceX inference, data centers in space, orbit, etc. is 102 00:09:52,530 --> 00:09:58,010 Speaker 1: completely ignored and he said it's very close to breaking out gradually then suddenly from 103 00:09:58,010 --> 00:10:04,950 Speaker 1: Sawyer Vera 2. And Musk responded to this too and said this is a very big deal. So Musk 104 00:10:04,950 --> 00:10:10,110 Speaker 1: is basically, I shouldn't say pumping his SpaceX, but he's literally pumping his SpaceX 105 00:10:10,110 --> 00:10:14,050 Speaker 1: pretty hard. And then we have TeraFab, which nobody believes they'll ever be able to pull 106 00:10:14,050 --> 00:10:20,730 Speaker 1: off. But last week, we just heard that TSMC is in working with them. NVIDIA is in working 107 00:10:20,730 --> 00:10:26,450 Speaker 1: with them. Intel is in working with them. Everybody wants to go to this party because it's 108 00:10:26,450 --> 00:10:30,990 Speaker 1: going to be huge. And what they're going to do, again, of course, chips will be a 109 00:10:30,990 --> 00:10:37,170 Speaker 1: bottleneck, power will be a bottleneck, etc. but the value of the output of this factory 110 00:10:37,170 --> 00:10:42,630 Speaker 1: will be in the top 20 of country gb gdps in the world i think it's 180 countries in the 111 00:10:42,630 --> 00:10:48,130 Speaker 1: world think of the top 20 you got italy germany france u .s canada etc china japan 112 00:10:48,130 --> 00:10:54,910 Speaker 1: and that is his vision huge vision monstrous and 113 00:10:54,910 --> 00:10:58,570 Speaker 1: then they've already talked about how much they're going to invest in the first phase be 17 114 00:10:58,570 --> 00:11:03,130 Speaker 1: billion dollars create 3 ,000 jobs and it'll be completely vertically integrated and 115 00:11:03,130 --> 00:11:08,070 Speaker 1: they're going to unthink how chips have been made in the past and they're going to do their 116 00:11:08,070 --> 00:11:11,830 Speaker 1: own memory and everything else but they've got help from some very powerful friends which 117 00:11:11,830 --> 00:11:16,610 Speaker 1: will help them pull it off then I'm going to turn off my camera to the bottom right for 118 00:11:16,610 --> 00:11:23,590 Speaker 1: this boo okay Starlink global comms direct to sell all that stuff as well there's a guy 119 00:11:23,590 --> 00:11:28,610 Speaker 1: called John Ehrlich man who's very good at predicting things like profit growths, revenue 120 00:11:28,610 --> 00:11:33,370 Speaker 1: growths, follow him on Twitter. He said Starlink revenue could grow 121 00:11:33,370 --> 00:11:37,770 Speaker 1: 925 % in five years. 122 00:11:39,510 --> 00:11:45,670 Speaker 1: Okay, that's a 10x in five years, my friends. Revenue, Starlink, global forums. Of course, 123 00:11:45,770 --> 00:11:51,610 Speaker 1: Elon comes and gets on the bottom and they said, of course, easy peasy, no problem. Okay, 124 00:11:51,730 --> 00:11:56,950 Speaker 1: so Starlink, et cetera, Ron Barron in the beginning said it's worth 15 trillion and the 125 00:11:56,950 --> 00:12:00,810 Speaker 1: growth rate is through the roof, global comms, nobody will be able to touch them. Yes, you 126 00:12:00,810 --> 00:12:06,630 Speaker 1: have countries like Europe and China and Russia will all want to build their own satellite 127 00:12:06,630 --> 00:12:13,050 Speaker 1: networks. They don't have a chance. Now that Starship is running and moving huge payloads 128 00:12:13,050 --> 00:12:19,730 Speaker 1: of 100 to 150 tons up in space with massive, you know, satellites, like they put, 129 00:12:20,110 --> 00:12:25,650 Speaker 1: I think, 60 of them in one of these Starships. and when they open up they're wider than a 130 00:12:25,650 --> 00:12:32,410 Speaker 1: 787 or 747 whatever big plane it is it's the the world is so far behind 131 00:12:32,410 --> 00:12:39,270 Speaker 1: it's it's actually unfair very unfair anyhow that's starling two and 132 00:12:39,270 --> 00:12:45,290 Speaker 1: starship speaking of starship as well the faa is reviewing a starbase expansion and 133 00:12:45,290 --> 00:12:52,010 Speaker 1: approving up to 456 launches per year and get that 912 landings per year which means the 134 00:12:52,010 --> 00:12:57,110 Speaker 1: starship goes up with the booster and then the spaceship on top and they both come down 135 00:12:57,110 --> 00:13:02,510 Speaker 1: separately so that's why there's two to one ratio between landings and launches and I'm 136 00:13:02,510 --> 00:13:07,730 Speaker 1: sure for the kids at home we should multiply it by 456 by two, what do you get? Hopefully 137 00:13:07,730 --> 00:13:08,730 Speaker 1: successful landings 138 00:13:10,170 --> 00:13:15,530 Speaker 1: anyway, that is more than one a day, my friends and there may be restrictions on weekends 139 00:13:15,530 --> 00:13:20,970 Speaker 1: and evenings, I don't know, weather but either way, it's nutty and that is in for approval 140 00:13:20,970 --> 00:13:27,810 Speaker 1: not approved yet and last week as well we had the big dip got time to buy some things 141 00:13:27,810 --> 00:13:34,710 Speaker 1: because markets get rattled very easily we had what i call the core weave kerfuffle i hope 142 00:13:34,710 --> 00:13:41,390 Speaker 1: i spelled that right um the you know their yield spiked etc but the point of this was 143 00:13:41,390 --> 00:13:47,650 Speaker 1: yet again elon responded to zero hedge that talked about all the danger for core weave and 144 00:13:47,650 --> 00:13:53,250 Speaker 1: maybe bankruptcy risk probable in one or two years all that stuff but the thing that elon 145 00:13:53,250 --> 00:13:59,770 Speaker 1: tried to point out here for everybody to make it abundantly clear what's going on is core 146 00:13:59,770 --> 00:14:05,130 Speaker 1: weave kind of sells stuff and then it gets in money and then it buys stuff and then it has 147 00:14:05,130 --> 00:14:10,650 Speaker 1: to build the data centers and procure the gpus etc it takes two and a half years three 148 00:14:10,650 --> 00:14:16,310 Speaker 1: years in some cases to do it and it's getting harder and harder and harder to build these 149 00:14:16,310 --> 00:14:21,910 Speaker 1: AI data centers. That's the point. Elon's point is getting the money in to build is the 150 00:14:21,910 --> 00:14:27,430 Speaker 1: easy part. What is incredibly difficult is to build the complex hardware. And I know some 151 00:14:27,430 --> 00:14:32,870 Speaker 1: people in the audience here work with data centers. So I see you and you know exactly how 152 00:14:32,870 --> 00:14:38,850 Speaker 1: hard it is. But getting the money in to build them, the massive power, the cooling, the 153 00:14:38,850 --> 00:14:45,830 Speaker 1: racks, the wiring, the connectivity, etc. is extremely difficult. And 154 00:14:45,830 --> 00:14:50,930 Speaker 1: Elon Musk has a crack team of SpaceX rocket scientists who are building the data centers. 155 00:14:51,330 --> 00:14:56,950 Speaker 1: And he said as well, we even find it extremely difficult to do, but nobody does it faster. 156 00:14:57,190 --> 00:15:01,910 Speaker 1: And if you buy these chips, the GPUs that cost billions of dollars, you want to be able to 157 00:15:01,910 --> 00:15:05,390 Speaker 1: turn them on and monetize them as quickly as possible so you can get the money in the door. 158 00:15:05,790 --> 00:15:12,350 Speaker 1: And Elon Musk, CFO for SpaceX, said they can get full return on investment on a data center 159 00:15:12,350 --> 00:15:17,850 Speaker 1: in 9 to 12 months, which is absolutely unheard of. Most people, it takes them that long, 160 00:15:18,050 --> 00:15:22,390 Speaker 1: two and a half times that long to even get it stood up, never mind turning on the revenue. 161 00:15:22,790 --> 00:15:27,470 Speaker 1: So, again, just like Starship and everything else, they have a bonkers advantage. 162 00:15:29,210 --> 00:15:29,690 UNKNOWN: Now, 163 00:15:29,690 --> 00:15:34,070 Speaker 1: the other big thing, which goes to the very first point I made at the beginning, is there 164 00:15:34,070 --> 00:15:38,390 Speaker 1: enough power on the planet to turn all this stuff in the first place? Because we know 165 00:15:38,390 --> 00:15:42,490 Speaker 1: there's plenty of chips, and the chip makers are building them as quickly as they can. But 166 00:15:42,490 --> 00:15:48,850 Speaker 1: this is North America. Think of the production of compute. 33, 167 00:15:49,050 --> 00:15:51,130 Speaker 1: 35 gigawatts is planned for next year. 168 00:15:52,670 --> 00:15:59,630 Speaker 1: But there is a problem. they may not be able to turn them all on because the power and 169 00:15:59,630 --> 00:16:05,050 Speaker 1: the transformers may not be there and the shortfall could be as high as 13 to 15 gigawatts 170 00:16:05,050 --> 00:16:11,630 Speaker 1: of that 33 35 gigawatts that's the big problem china um 40 to 45 171 00:16:11,630 --> 00:16:16,770 Speaker 1: gigawatts they could also have a shortfall of two so that is the big problem you can have 172 00:16:16,770 --> 00:16:20,450 Speaker 1: all the chips in the world but if you don't have the facilities the power to actually turn 173 00:16:20,450 --> 00:16:25,690 Speaker 1: them on, which could be a big problem. But this is where this is important. If the demand 174 00:16:25,690 --> 00:16:27,510 Speaker 1: continues to go up, and I'll repeat this again, 175 00:16:28,710 --> 00:16:32,930 Speaker 1: and nobody else can deliver compute, what happens to the price of compute? The answer is it 176 00:16:32,930 --> 00:16:38,610 Speaker 1: goes to the moon, and SpaceX make even more money per gigawatt. They'll be able to pull in 177 00:16:38,610 --> 00:16:44,510 Speaker 1: maybe $50 billion per gigawatt or $60 billion per gigawatt, which is all built and up and 178 00:16:44,510 --> 00:16:48,330 Speaker 1: running. And the simple graphic here I'm trying to share is 179 00:16:49,670 --> 00:16:54,490 Speaker 1: as compute demand goes to the roof and nobody has the ability to deliver in time or at 180 00:16:54,490 --> 00:16:59,330 Speaker 1: least not for two and a half plus three years, the demand will explode. And there's only 181 00:16:59,330 --> 00:17:05,150 Speaker 1: one company in the catbird seat to take advantage of this. And that is SpaceX. That's why 182 00:17:05,150 --> 00:17:11,290 Speaker 1: they've been building hand over fist and have huge crack teams of SpaceX engineers building 183 00:17:11,290 --> 00:17:17,810 Speaker 1: out these data centers because it is a gateway to massive revenue and profits. Massive. 184 00:17:17,810 --> 00:17:21,490 Speaker 1: That's why it'll be very interesting to be on the earnings call this week to see exactly 185 00:17:21,490 --> 00:17:22,650 Speaker 1: what they've achieved. 186 00:17:24,450 --> 00:17:24,910 UNKNOWN: Anyhow, 187 00:17:24,910 --> 00:17:29,430 Speaker 1: back to the stuff you're interested in as well. Merge your update with Tesla, facts versus 188 00:17:29,430 --> 00:17:36,010 Speaker 1: rumors. So much stuff flying around. You know, poly markets and Calci's and experts and 189 00:17:36,010 --> 00:17:40,710 Speaker 1: analysts and everything is kind of at this stage like, just merge already. You're tired of 190 00:17:40,710 --> 00:17:45,110 Speaker 1: hearing about it. So first of all, Barclays came out last week as well. They modeled SpaceX 191 00:17:45,110 --> 00:17:50,370 Speaker 1: acquiring Tesla in an all stock deal is the likelier structure again it was speculation no 192 00:17:50,370 --> 00:17:57,030 Speaker 1: it's not a deal uh tesla has their annual meeting on december 3rd uh there's no mention of 193 00:17:57,030 --> 00:18:01,430 Speaker 1: a merger in the ballot etc so that's another thing so it's not going to happen that soon i 194 00:18:01,430 --> 00:18:08,110 Speaker 1: don't believe um tesla has of course a big multi -billion dollar stake in 195 00:18:08,110 --> 00:18:14,270 Speaker 1: xai which became spacex shares so that's good there's already kind of co -ownership there 196 00:18:14,270 --> 00:18:21,110 Speaker 1: but again there's no ak's there's no press releases no nothing but elon is also 197 00:18:21,110 --> 00:18:27,910 Speaker 1: hinting at it in some very breadcrumb like spacex x tesla tweets 198 00:18:27,910 --> 00:18:32,550 Speaker 1: and things and of course we had the car show last week the best demo i've ever seen in my 199 00:18:32,550 --> 00:18:39,490 Speaker 1: life cost a lot of eds but it still was fun anyhow um these 200 00:18:39,490 --> 00:18:43,810 Speaker 1: two companies are going together the question is when and when we look at the prediction 201 00:18:43,810 --> 00:18:49,950 Speaker 1: markets the odds of spacex tesla merger spiked over the last few days to nearly 60 202 00:18:49,950 --> 00:18:56,950 Speaker 1: circa spring 2027 that is what five six months away 203 00:18:56,950 --> 00:19:02,930 Speaker 1: not far 60 chance is pretty high if you go to calci you'll see the same thing this could be 204 00:19:02,930 --> 00:19:08,430 Speaker 1: calci this is calci if you go to polymarket it's pretty much the same thing too the odds 205 00:19:08,430 --> 00:19:13,910 Speaker 1: are spiking so something is cooking for sure now getting back before we get into the 206 00:19:13,910 --> 00:19:18,310 Speaker 1: numbers and some new price predictions too this is where it gets interesting so how bullish 207 00:19:18,310 --> 00:19:24,370 Speaker 1: should you be okay they have so many moats they have so much ability to do stuff so fast 208 00:19:24,370 --> 00:19:29,410 Speaker 1: they got jensen wang in the pocket rumors i heard from a visual source they've locked up 30 209 00:19:29,410 --> 00:19:33,370 Speaker 1: to 40 percent of the vera rubin allocation from nvidia some of those are going to go into 210 00:19:33,370 --> 00:19:37,270 Speaker 1: space next year as well they're building a special version of that that is going to be 211 00:19:37,270 --> 00:19:44,190 Speaker 1: what's it called radiation capable for ICU cypher sniper he's a space 212 00:19:44,190 --> 00:19:50,610 Speaker 1: guru understands the importance of radiation proofing your chips up there um there's also 213 00:19:50,610 --> 00:19:55,270 Speaker 1: rumor of 40 billion dollar nvidia financing which is in talks of apollo remember if jensen 214 00:19:55,270 --> 00:19:59,690 Speaker 1: and elon want 40 billion dollars they just wave their hand and say give it to me they have 215 00:19:59,690 --> 00:20:06,290 Speaker 1: no problem raising cash no problem at all uh arc believe tesla space x will get to 216 00:20:06,290 --> 00:20:13,210 Speaker 1: 66 to 67 gigawatts by 2031 that goes into my valuation model by the way and musk said he 217 00:20:13,210 --> 00:20:18,270 Speaker 1: would be very disappointed if that's all they get to so again they've got the moats they've 218 00:20:18,270 --> 00:20:22,730 Speaker 1: got the advantages the ability to build nobody else is able to keep up with them or 219 00:20:22,730 --> 00:20:27,930 Speaker 1: monetize things quicker this means you should be very bullish and i'm only talking compute 220 00:20:27,930 --> 00:20:34,630 Speaker 1: nothing more so this is my latest number 12 or 13 i do like the number 221 00:20:34,630 --> 00:20:41,590 Speaker 1: 13 by the way of spacex elon web services compute by 2031 price 222 00:20:41,590 --> 00:20:48,090 Speaker 1: target target only and again the more compute they have the more scale they have the more 223 00:20:48,090 --> 00:20:52,570 Speaker 1: profitability they have so bear that in mind when you look at the ebitda and we're going to 224 00:20:52,570 --> 00:20:58,510 Speaker 1: go into way more depth or depth regarding these price prediction models but just my base 225 00:20:58,510 --> 00:21:05,410 Speaker 1: case of 66 .5 gigawatts of online compute by 2031. Elon says it's going to be a lot higher 226 00:21:05,410 --> 00:21:12,330 Speaker 1: than that. That would take the price of just, just the compute business alone of SpaceX. 227 00:21:12,630 --> 00:21:19,210 Speaker 1: Nothing else. No value attributed to launch or Star Shield or 228 00:21:19,210 --> 00:21:25,410 Speaker 1: any of the other goods, Starlink. Nothing. Just compute. That would take the share price, 229 00:21:25,610 --> 00:21:32,570 Speaker 1: and a very conservative multiple, of $825 from here. That's a 5 .65x. If we get 230 00:21:32,570 --> 00:21:36,370 Speaker 1: to the bull case of doubling the gigawatts online, that would take the share price to 231 00:21:36,370 --> 00:21:43,170 Speaker 1: nearly $4 ,000 to 21 .7x from here. That is just compute. Please don't confuse 232 00:21:43,170 --> 00:21:49,810 Speaker 1: this with anything else. And remember, as I said before, many times, the retire -on bag for 233 00:21:49,810 --> 00:21:50,230 Speaker 1: SpaceX 234 00:21:51,590 --> 00:21:57,190 Speaker 1: needs to be about 655 shares. So if we go back here, 655 shares 235 00:21:57,190 --> 00:22:04,130 Speaker 1: times that price target 825 gets you 236 00:22:04,130 --> 00:22:09,290 Speaker 1: about $540 ,000 approximately. And of course, nearly $4 ,000, 237 00:22:09,790 --> 00:22:16,490 Speaker 1: 655 shares is about 2 .4 million just for the compute piece. And the idea of that target, 238 00:22:16,650 --> 00:22:23,270 Speaker 1: by the way, is what gets you to a million dollars of value in the year 2032. Two, the point 239 00:22:23,270 --> 00:22:28,610 Speaker 1: I'm trying to make here is the compute business alone gets you there very fast. So 240 00:22:28,610 --> 00:22:35,290 Speaker 1: my job was to build a SpaceX retire -on bag. I got that 241 00:22:35,290 --> 00:22:40,530 Speaker 1: done and Tesla doesn't go away either. They're going to merge. There will be a premium. We 242 00:22:40,530 --> 00:22:47,090 Speaker 1: don't know how much yet. So let's finish with, this was inspired by So in the community. 243 00:22:47,290 --> 00:22:52,490 Speaker 1: He put together, you have to pick one, which will outperform the next four years by the way 244 00:22:52,490 --> 00:22:59,450 Speaker 1: 0 .18 of a bitcoin is $15 ,000 100 shares of spacex is $15 ,000 and the 245 00:22:59,450 --> 00:23:05,990 Speaker 1: poll results were one vote that bitcoin would outperform spacex 100 shares of spacex 246 00:23:05,990 --> 00:23:12,290 Speaker 1: 78 of the vote ignore the last part brothers waste time but we did a different poll as well 247 00:23:12,290 --> 00:23:18,910 Speaker 1: shout out to the team behind me who should have sent it to me Here we are. Which will 248 00:23:18,910 --> 00:23:25,750 Speaker 1: perform better? So the poll said 0 .18 of a Bitcoin. 26 % of you believe Bitcoin will 249 00:23:25,750 --> 00:23:32,730 Speaker 1: outperform SpaceX and outperform 100 shares of SpaceX. 0 .18 Bitcoin. 74 % of 250 00:23:32,730 --> 00:23:39,710 Speaker 1: you said 100 shares of SpaceX. So it's good to have both. But I do very much believe 251 00:23:39,710 --> 00:23:46,690 Speaker 1: that AI is the faster horse. Bitcoin is there in case the world goes to poop, which it is. 252 00:23:47,090 --> 00:23:48,850 Speaker 1: That direction is pretty clear. 253 00:23:50,230 --> 00:23:54,050 Speaker 1: Anyway, that was the story today, my friends. I hope you enjoyed it. I hope you all learned 254 00:23:54,050 --> 00:23:58,750 Speaker 1: something new. Big thank you to everybody for coming. And of course, huge shout out to Boat 255 00:23:58,750 --> 00:24:04,270 Speaker 1: Corn again, GQ Trader, B -Man, Booth McDuck, Nick M, I am Colt, Holly Akayle, long -term 256 00:24:04,270 --> 00:24:09,350 Speaker 1: holder. Never seen a company like this in my life, ever. And I used to say I've never seen 257 00:24:09,350 --> 00:24:13,250 Speaker 1: a company like Tesla either, But, wow, can you imagine the two of them together? That's 258 00:24:13,250 --> 00:24:18,210 Speaker 1: going to be wild. Thank you, Sean D, CyberSniper, T &D, Tesla. Everybody take care. Back 259 00:24:18,210 --> 00:24:19,630 Speaker 1: tomorrow for Okta. 260 00:24:21,070 --> 00:24:23,290 Speaker 1: Get, start building a bag of Teslax, 261 00:24:24,730 --> 00:24:29,950 Speaker 1: SpaceX, if you haven't already. I know that the prices are different. There's unlocks 262 00:24:29,950 --> 00:24:33,190 Speaker 1: coming and everything else. But this will be interesting from an earnings perspective. 263 00:24:33,630 --> 00:24:37,690 Speaker 1: Let's see if we get some nice earnings surprises, too. Thanks all. Have a good night. Bye.