Elon Says $100T  Is LOW: How SPCX Compute Could Break Every Model 🚀
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmL-jIAApCQ
Language: en | ASR: large-v3-turbo @ 0a363e9161cbc7ed1431c9597a8ceaf0c4f78fcf

[00:00:06.930 --> 00:00:13.770] Speaker 1: hello a little different today we're not going to do bitcoin microstrider because nothing
[00:00:13.770 --> 00:00:18.570] Speaker 1: basically has happened it's like every week is the same so but we will talk about bitcoin
[00:00:18.570 --> 00:00:22.470] Speaker 1: at the end of this video and we have a live poll going and i want to thank everybody for
[00:00:22.470 --> 00:00:27.790] Speaker 1: coming i really do appreciate you all coming up here every day and uh thank you for taking
[00:00:27.790 --> 00:00:34.350] Speaker 1: the time this one i think about this one a lot space spacex compute
[00:00:34.350 --> 00:00:41.250] Speaker 1: moats and i have been burning my brains on this one now for
[00:00:41.250 --> 00:00:47.830] Speaker 1: oh well since even before the ipo and i'm just going to look at the business
[00:00:47.830 --> 00:00:54.730] Speaker 1: the rumors the mergers the odds the valuations and yet another
[00:00:54.730 --> 00:01:01.190] Speaker 1: price prediction models So we're up to like 12 or 13 now. And just on compute alone,
[00:01:01.190 --> 00:01:06.390] Speaker 1: that's a very interesting thing. Big thank you to CyberSniper, Sean D, TND, K8 for being
[00:01:06.390 --> 00:01:11.770] Speaker 1: here. And of course, Bookhorn, GQTrader, and B -Man. Love you guys. Let's get into it. And
[00:01:11.770 --> 00:01:18.130] Speaker 1: this sounds like copium, crazy, bullishness, etc. But I've done the numbers. And I've also
[00:01:18.130 --> 00:01:25.030] Speaker 1: analyzed the competition. And I tell you, the results are insane. Anyway, hope my mic is
[00:01:25.030 --> 00:01:26.130] Speaker 1: working. I think it is.
[00:01:27.810 --> 00:01:32.530] Speaker 1: Let's go. Not financial advice. Just a guy on the internet. Shout out to Donna Felix. I
[00:01:32.530 --> 00:01:36.190] Speaker 1: love the information you share with us. And I enjoy being part of your Patreon family.
[00:01:36.550 --> 00:01:41.290] Speaker 1: Thank you, Donna. We love to have women in the community. We're still dominated by men,
[00:01:41.490 --> 00:01:47.130] Speaker 1: probably 92, 93%. But one day, hopefully we'll get to 10 % female. Anyway,
[00:01:47.430 --> 00:01:53.930] Speaker 1: let's move on. First of all the big story is just how much
[00:01:53.930 --> 00:01:59.930] Speaker 1: elon has been tweeting and how extremely bullish he is it is almost
[00:01:59.930 --> 00:02:06.570] Speaker 1: bonkers it's almost like he's hallucinating or something but when you look at all the
[00:02:06.570 --> 00:02:12.670] Speaker 1: numbers and back them all down it may be he's on to something but basically he has never
[00:02:13.950 --> 00:02:20.910] Speaker 1: ever in the history sounded this bullish on spacex okay uh you know he
[00:02:20.910 --> 00:02:26.950] Speaker 1: now is talking about spacex being worth over a hundred trillion dollars in 10 years okay
[00:02:26.950 --> 00:02:32.830] Speaker 1: that's a 50x from here from where we are and he backed it up with post after post after
[00:02:32.830 --> 00:02:38.310] Speaker 1: post so the reason i'm making this video is should you own some spacex and how bullish
[00:02:38.310 --> 00:02:43.550] Speaker 1: should you be and i'm going to share all the receipts in detail and this video today is
[00:02:43.550 --> 00:02:48.690] Speaker 1: backed up by many real live tweets as well so you can go dig them up yourself and sometimes
[00:02:48.690 --> 00:02:53.010] Speaker 1: the best value of a tweet is looking at the comments below it too little tip there but here
[00:02:53.010 --> 00:02:59.710] Speaker 1: this is the spacex compute roadmap q4 2026 and i want to take a second on this
[00:02:59.710 --> 00:03:05.650] Speaker 1: not only is this compute roadmap insane but they're ramping way faster than anybody else
[00:03:05.650 --> 00:03:11.310] Speaker 1: they're the only people that can build coherent compute they're the only people that can
[00:03:11.310 --> 00:03:17.550] Speaker 1: build the energy the cooling they can build a facility in 20 weeks they can set up 100 000
[00:03:17.550 --> 00:03:23.530] Speaker 1: gpus in like 90 days which or is it whatever whatever days it was that jensen said it was
[00:03:23.530 --> 00:03:30.210] Speaker 1: super superhuman most other competitors takes two to four years to do this this is the big
[00:03:30.210 --> 00:03:36.690] Speaker 1: problem. Now, I'm not talking bottlenecks. I'm talking scarcity. We're moving into a world
[00:03:36.690 --> 00:03:42.250] Speaker 1: where I can prove a thousand ways to Sunday that the demand for compute is going completely
[00:03:42.250 --> 00:03:42.810] Speaker 1: parabolic.
[00:03:44.270 --> 00:03:50.590] Speaker 1: But what's not going parabolic is the ability to scale to deliver that compute. That's
[00:03:50.590 --> 00:03:55.370] Speaker 1: where this story gets very interesting. There's one player on the planet that can do it
[00:03:55.370 --> 00:04:00.950] Speaker 1: fast and efficiently and in a coherent manner that nobody else has been able to stream more
[00:04:00.950 --> 00:04:07.030] Speaker 1: than 30 ,000 GPUs together. Elon does 220 ,000 GPUs again and again and again and again.
[00:04:07.390 --> 00:04:12.050] Speaker 1: That's the point of this slide. So before we do anything else, I just want to lay the
[00:04:12.050 --> 00:04:17.770] Speaker 1: groundwork with this. Not hopium, but real facts. Okay, and we have the earnings call as
[00:04:17.770 --> 00:04:22.390] Speaker 1: well tomorrow, if I'm not mistaken. And then Tesla on Wednesday is going to be a big week,
[00:04:22.750 --> 00:04:29.710] Speaker 1: exciting week. But Colossus 100, 50 ,000 H100s, 50K H200s, 30K GB200s. Colossus 2,
[00:04:29.990 --> 00:04:36.950] Speaker 1: 110 ,000 GB200s, 440 ,000 GB300s. That's monstrous. And then
[00:04:36.950 --> 00:04:42.690] Speaker 1: he's building another 220K GB300s, which will be fully operational next week. That was
[00:04:42.690 --> 00:04:48.410] Speaker 1: October 1st. That's up and running. Another 220K in November. We're heading into November
[00:04:48.410 --> 00:04:54.690] Speaker 1: in, what, two weeks? and if we get lucky another 220k it must be that sweet sweet spot
[00:04:54.690 --> 00:04:59.930] Speaker 1: where he can ramp these very fast by late december putting this all together is a monstrous
[00:04:59.930 --> 00:05:05.290] Speaker 1: amount of compute and as i say he or she who has the most compute wins and that's the
[00:05:05.290 --> 00:05:12.110] Speaker 1: simple story but there's more now this is a place called brownsville
[00:05:12.110 --> 00:05:17.070] Speaker 1: texas it's near starbase and they are building there and moving fast and i think this is
[00:05:17.070 --> 00:05:22.950] Speaker 1: where they're going to house, not one of those little micro harders, these smaller
[00:05:22.950 --> 00:05:27.730] Speaker 1: buildings that have the same amount of compute, but a bunch of them at the same time. And
[00:05:27.730 --> 00:05:34.210] Speaker 1: according to CERN Basher, friend of the channel, shout out to CERN, he looked into this
[00:05:34.210 --> 00:05:40.950] Speaker 1: and some other data available, but they have 444 .45 acres, they have water,
[00:05:41.610 --> 00:05:47.830] Speaker 1: they have the land, they've got the buildings they've got the 400 megawatts of wind
[00:05:47.830 --> 00:05:54.730] Speaker 1: turbines on site for one mini heart and they'll do more okay and they can make at least 22
[00:05:54.730 --> 00:06:01.330] Speaker 1: billion a year on the 220 000 mini hearts gb300s and 30 billion on
[00:06:01.330 --> 00:06:08.270] Speaker 1: 220 000 vera rubens when are they getting the vera rubens very soon and i will get to
[00:06:08.270 --> 00:06:13.090] Speaker 1: some rumors later that i heard from very good sources that we may be able to take to the
[00:06:13.090 --> 00:06:19.790] Speaker 1: bank and they can spin all these up in 20 weeks okay six buildings could be 132 to
[00:06:19.790 --> 00:06:26.470] Speaker 1: 180 billion dollars in revenue per year that's monstrous 180 billion dollars is
[00:06:26.470 --> 00:06:30.390] Speaker 1: basically twice the revenue that tesla makes after being in operation for nearly two
[00:06:30.390 --> 00:06:30.770] Speaker 1: decades
[00:06:32.610 --> 00:06:39.350] Speaker 1: again they've they've found a way of pivoting rocket scientists into
[00:06:39.350 --> 00:06:44.050] Speaker 1: building data centers better, quicker, faster than anybody else. That's the big story. Then
[00:06:44.050 --> 00:06:50.990] Speaker 1: Ron Barron came out and he sees SpaceX being worth $50 trillion in 10 years. That's a
[00:06:50.990 --> 00:06:55.810] Speaker 1: 25x from here. Yes, 10 years is a long time. I know, I know. Stay healthy, my friends.
[00:06:56.070 --> 00:07:02.870] Speaker 1: That's what I say. Thank you for coming. But Ron Barron knows that he has huge bags in both
[00:07:02.870 --> 00:07:08.050] Speaker 1: SpaceX and Tesla. He's a big believer in elon musk and has been for a long time and again
[00:07:08.050 --> 00:07:13.250] Speaker 1: this is a combination of things like starlink alone would be worth 14 to 15 trillion of
[00:07:13.250 --> 00:07:18.930] Speaker 1: that 50 trillion so consider one -third starlink but i think there's more value in a whole
[00:07:18.930 --> 00:07:25.130] Speaker 1: bunch of other things too anyway this is 25x but that's not the important tweet 50 trillion
[00:07:25.130 --> 00:07:31.510] Speaker 1: 25x it's what elon said he said unless there's a major world war spacex probably gets to
[00:07:31.510 --> 00:07:37.770] Speaker 1: more than 100 trillion dollars in less than 10 years more than 100 trillion less than 10
[00:07:37.770 --> 00:07:44.530] Speaker 1: years this is my favorite dr evil 100 trillion dollars it's
[00:07:44.530 --> 00:07:49.950] Speaker 1: bonkers numbers we'll get to the valuation model and the price predictions in a minute and
[00:07:49.950 --> 00:07:54.330] Speaker 1: we'll get to why i've said for a long time how many spacex shares you need to have a
[00:07:54.330 --> 00:08:01.050] Speaker 1: different future but this is crazy crazy and you know he knows that tweets don't go
[00:08:01.050 --> 00:08:05.130] Speaker 1: anywhere there's people that have bookmarked this a thousand times maybe 10 000 times maybe
[00:08:05.130 --> 00:08:10.330] Speaker 1: a million times again greater than 100 trillion dollars in valuation in less than a decade
[00:08:10.330 --> 00:08:15.910] Speaker 1: insane now the other thing that's completely insane too is the spacex total address in
[00:08:15.910 --> 00:08:21.970] Speaker 1: market they had it in the s1 i read the s1 twice, $28 .5 trillion.
[00:08:22.810 --> 00:08:29.270] Speaker 1: And James Katz said SpaceX claims its TAM is $28 .5 trillion. No offense, Elon, but I will
[00:08:29.270 --> 00:08:34.510] Speaker 1: need to verify that independently from the comfort of my own bedroom. Elon Musk said, we
[00:08:34.510 --> 00:08:41.450] Speaker 1: are wrong. It's vastly higher than that. So the TAM of $28 .5 trillion, which blew
[00:08:41.450 --> 00:08:47.410] Speaker 1: people's socks off, they said it's wrong. Now, the key thing is I build a lot of my price
[00:08:47.410 --> 00:08:52.850] Speaker 1: prediction models off of total address for markets. Then I calculate market share. Then I
[00:08:52.850 --> 00:08:58.470] Speaker 1: calculate revenue and profitability and all that type of stuff. If the TAM is wrong, that
[00:08:58.470 --> 00:09:05.050] Speaker 1: means every model I have built so far is wrong. It means it's completely understated. Very
[00:09:05.050 --> 00:09:11.870] Speaker 1: important to understand how I model things out. Insane. Hey, Mike, good to see you. And
[00:09:11.870 --> 00:09:18.370] Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley says, everybody has ignored the real engine. Think about
[00:09:18.370 --> 00:09:22.790] Speaker 1: inference from space, data centers in space, but also terrestrial data centers are going to
[00:09:22.790 --> 00:09:28.710] Speaker 1: be huge because of the point I mentioned at the very beginning. Nobody has enough and
[00:09:28.710 --> 00:09:33.510] Speaker 1: demand is off the hook and you can't build these things. You can't hook up the power. You
[00:09:33.510 --> 00:09:38.310] Speaker 1: can't get the professional trades in, nothing. and Morgan Stanley was in a room full of
[00:09:38.310 --> 00:09:44.490] Speaker 1: people and he asked, does anybody own SpaceX? Not one hand went up, not one.
[00:09:45.590 --> 00:09:52.530] Speaker 1: Now, he also said, it is the whole SpaceX inference, data centers in space, orbit, etc. is
[00:09:52.530 --> 00:09:58.010] Speaker 1: completely ignored and he said it's very close to breaking out gradually then suddenly from
[00:09:58.010 --> 00:10:04.950] Speaker 1: Sawyer Vera 2. And Musk responded to this too and said this is a very big deal. So Musk
[00:10:04.950 --> 00:10:10.110] Speaker 1: is basically, I shouldn't say pumping his SpaceX, but he's literally pumping his SpaceX
[00:10:10.110 --> 00:10:14.050] Speaker 1: pretty hard. And then we have TeraFab, which nobody believes they'll ever be able to pull
[00:10:14.050 --> 00:10:20.730] Speaker 1: off. But last week, we just heard that TSMC is in working with them. NVIDIA is in working
[00:10:20.730 --> 00:10:26.450] Speaker 1: with them. Intel is in working with them. Everybody wants to go to this party because it's
[00:10:26.450 --> 00:10:30.990] Speaker 1: going to be huge. And what they're going to do, again, of course, chips will be a
[00:10:30.990 --> 00:10:37.170] Speaker 1: bottleneck, power will be a bottleneck, etc. but the value of the output of this factory
[00:10:37.170 --> 00:10:42.630] Speaker 1: will be in the top 20 of country gb gdps in the world i think it's 180 countries in the
[00:10:42.630 --> 00:10:48.130] Speaker 1: world think of the top 20 you got italy germany france u .s canada etc china japan
[00:10:48.130 --> 00:10:54.910] Speaker 1: and that is his vision huge vision monstrous and
[00:10:54.910 --> 00:10:58.570] Speaker 1: then they've already talked about how much they're going to invest in the first phase be 17
[00:10:58.570 --> 00:11:03.130] Speaker 1: billion dollars create 3 ,000 jobs and it'll be completely vertically integrated and
[00:11:03.130 --> 00:11:08.070] Speaker 1: they're going to unthink how chips have been made in the past and they're going to do their
[00:11:08.070 --> 00:11:11.830] Speaker 1: own memory and everything else but they've got help from some very powerful friends which
[00:11:11.830 --> 00:11:16.610] Speaker 1: will help them pull it off then I'm going to turn off my camera to the bottom right for
[00:11:16.610 --> 00:11:23.590] Speaker 1: this boo okay Starlink global comms direct to sell all that stuff as well there's a guy
[00:11:23.590 --> 00:11:28.610] Speaker 1: called John Ehrlich man who's very good at predicting things like profit growths, revenue
[00:11:28.610 --> 00:11:33.370] Speaker 1: growths, follow him on Twitter. He said Starlink revenue could grow
[00:11:33.370 --> 00:11:37.770] Speaker 1: 925 % in five years.
[00:11:39.510 --> 00:11:45.670] Speaker 1: Okay, that's a 10x in five years, my friends. Revenue, Starlink, global forums. Of course,
[00:11:45.770 --> 00:11:51.610] Speaker 1: Elon comes and gets on the bottom and they said, of course, easy peasy, no problem. Okay,
[00:11:51.730 --> 00:11:56.950] Speaker 1: so Starlink, et cetera, Ron Barron in the beginning said it's worth 15 trillion and the
[00:11:56.950 --> 00:12:00.810] Speaker 1: growth rate is through the roof, global comms, nobody will be able to touch them. Yes, you
[00:12:00.810 --> 00:12:06.630] Speaker 1: have countries like Europe and China and Russia will all want to build their own satellite
[00:12:06.630 --> 00:12:13.050] Speaker 1: networks. They don't have a chance. Now that Starship is running and moving huge payloads
[00:12:13.050 --> 00:12:19.730] Speaker 1: of 100 to 150 tons up in space with massive, you know, satellites, like they put,
[00:12:20.110 --> 00:12:25.650] Speaker 1: I think, 60 of them in one of these Starships. and when they open up they're wider than a
[00:12:25.650 --> 00:12:32.410] Speaker 1: 787 or 747 whatever big plane it is it's the the world is so far behind
[00:12:32.410 --> 00:12:39.270] Speaker 1: it's it's actually unfair very unfair anyhow that's starling two and
[00:12:39.270 --> 00:12:45.290] Speaker 1: starship speaking of starship as well the faa is reviewing a starbase expansion and
[00:12:45.290 --> 00:12:52.010] Speaker 1: approving up to 456 launches per year and get that 912 landings per year which means the
[00:12:52.010 --> 00:12:57.110] Speaker 1: starship goes up with the booster and then the spaceship on top and they both come down
[00:12:57.110 --> 00:13:02.510] Speaker 1: separately so that's why there's two to one ratio between landings and launches and I'm
[00:13:02.510 --> 00:13:07.730] Speaker 1: sure for the kids at home we should multiply it by 456 by two, what do you get? Hopefully
[00:13:07.730 --> 00:13:08.730] Speaker 1: successful landings
[00:13:10.170 --> 00:13:15.530] Speaker 1: anyway, that is more than one a day, my friends and there may be restrictions on weekends
[00:13:15.530 --> 00:13:20.970] Speaker 1: and evenings, I don't know, weather but either way, it's nutty and that is in for approval
[00:13:20.970 --> 00:13:27.810] Speaker 1: not approved yet and last week as well we had the big dip got time to buy some things
[00:13:27.810 --> 00:13:34.710] Speaker 1: because markets get rattled very easily we had what i call the core weave kerfuffle i hope
[00:13:34.710 --> 00:13:41.390] Speaker 1: i spelled that right um the you know their yield spiked etc but the point of this was
[00:13:41.390 --> 00:13:47.650] Speaker 1: yet again elon responded to zero hedge that talked about all the danger for core weave and
[00:13:47.650 --> 00:13:53.250] Speaker 1: maybe bankruptcy risk probable in one or two years all that stuff but the thing that elon
[00:13:53.250 --> 00:13:59.770] Speaker 1: tried to point out here for everybody to make it abundantly clear what's going on is core
[00:13:59.770 --> 00:14:05.130] Speaker 1: weave kind of sells stuff and then it gets in money and then it buys stuff and then it has
[00:14:05.130 --> 00:14:10.650] Speaker 1: to build the data centers and procure the gpus etc it takes two and a half years three
[00:14:10.650 --> 00:14:16.310] Speaker 1: years in some cases to do it and it's getting harder and harder and harder to build these
[00:14:16.310 --> 00:14:21.910] Speaker 1: AI data centers. That's the point. Elon's point is getting the money in to build is the
[00:14:21.910 --> 00:14:27.430] Speaker 1: easy part. What is incredibly difficult is to build the complex hardware. And I know some
[00:14:27.430 --> 00:14:32.870] Speaker 1: people in the audience here work with data centers. So I see you and you know exactly how
[00:14:32.870 --> 00:14:38.850] Speaker 1: hard it is. But getting the money in to build them, the massive power, the cooling, the
[00:14:38.850 --> 00:14:45.830] Speaker 1: racks, the wiring, the connectivity, etc. is extremely difficult. And
[00:14:45.830 --> 00:14:50.930] Speaker 1: Elon Musk has a crack team of SpaceX rocket scientists who are building the data centers.
[00:14:51.330 --> 00:14:56.950] Speaker 1: And he said as well, we even find it extremely difficult to do, but nobody does it faster.
[00:14:57.190 --> 00:15:01.910] Speaker 1: And if you buy these chips, the GPUs that cost billions of dollars, you want to be able to
[00:15:01.910 --> 00:15:05.390] Speaker 1: turn them on and monetize them as quickly as possible so you can get the money in the door.
[00:15:05.790 --> 00:15:12.350] Speaker 1: And Elon Musk, CFO for SpaceX, said they can get full return on investment on a data center
[00:15:12.350 --> 00:15:17.850] Speaker 1: in 9 to 12 months, which is absolutely unheard of. Most people, it takes them that long,
[00:15:18.050 --> 00:15:22.390] Speaker 1: two and a half times that long to even get it stood up, never mind turning on the revenue.
[00:15:22.790 --> 00:15:27.470] Speaker 1: So, again, just like Starship and everything else, they have a bonkers advantage.
[00:15:29.210 --> 00:15:29.690] UNKNOWN: Now,
[00:15:29.690 --> 00:15:34.070] Speaker 1: the other big thing, which goes to the very first point I made at the beginning, is there
[00:15:34.070 --> 00:15:38.390] Speaker 1: enough power on the planet to turn all this stuff in the first place? Because we know
[00:15:38.390 --> 00:15:42.490] Speaker 1: there's plenty of chips, and the chip makers are building them as quickly as they can. But
[00:15:42.490 --> 00:15:48.850] Speaker 1: this is North America. Think of the production of compute. 33,
[00:15:49.050 --> 00:15:51.130] Speaker 1: 35 gigawatts is planned for next year.
[00:15:52.670 --> 00:15:59.630] Speaker 1: But there is a problem. they may not be able to turn them all on because the power and
[00:15:59.630 --> 00:16:05.050] Speaker 1: the transformers may not be there and the shortfall could be as high as 13 to 15 gigawatts
[00:16:05.050 --> 00:16:11.630] Speaker 1: of that 33 35 gigawatts that's the big problem china um 40 to 45
[00:16:11.630 --> 00:16:16.770] Speaker 1: gigawatts they could also have a shortfall of two so that is the big problem you can have
[00:16:16.770 --> 00:16:20.450] Speaker 1: all the chips in the world but if you don't have the facilities the power to actually turn
[00:16:20.450 --> 00:16:25.690] Speaker 1: them on, which could be a big problem. But this is where this is important. If the demand
[00:16:25.690 --> 00:16:27.510] Speaker 1: continues to go up, and I'll repeat this again,
[00:16:28.710 --> 00:16:32.930] Speaker 1: and nobody else can deliver compute, what happens to the price of compute? The answer is it
[00:16:32.930 --> 00:16:38.610] Speaker 1: goes to the moon, and SpaceX make even more money per gigawatt. They'll be able to pull in
[00:16:38.610 --> 00:16:44.510] Speaker 1: maybe $50 billion per gigawatt or $60 billion per gigawatt, which is all built and up and
[00:16:44.510 --> 00:16:48.330] Speaker 1: running. And the simple graphic here I'm trying to share is
[00:16:49.670 --> 00:16:54.490] Speaker 1: as compute demand goes to the roof and nobody has the ability to deliver in time or at
[00:16:54.490 --> 00:16:59.330] Speaker 1: least not for two and a half plus three years, the demand will explode. And there's only
[00:16:59.330 --> 00:17:05.150] Speaker 1: one company in the catbird seat to take advantage of this. And that is SpaceX. That's why
[00:17:05.150 --> 00:17:11.290] Speaker 1: they've been building hand over fist and have huge crack teams of SpaceX engineers building
[00:17:11.290 --> 00:17:17.810] Speaker 1: out these data centers because it is a gateway to massive revenue and profits. Massive.
[00:17:17.810 --> 00:17:21.490] Speaker 1: That's why it'll be very interesting to be on the earnings call this week to see exactly
[00:17:21.490 --> 00:17:22.650] Speaker 1: what they've achieved.
[00:17:24.450 --> 00:17:24.910] UNKNOWN: Anyhow,
[00:17:24.910 --> 00:17:29.430] Speaker 1: back to the stuff you're interested in as well. Merge your update with Tesla, facts versus
[00:17:29.430 --> 00:17:36.010] Speaker 1: rumors. So much stuff flying around. You know, poly markets and Calci's and experts and
[00:17:36.010 --> 00:17:40.710] Speaker 1: analysts and everything is kind of at this stage like, just merge already. You're tired of
[00:17:40.710 --> 00:17:45.110] Speaker 1: hearing about it. So first of all, Barclays came out last week as well. They modeled SpaceX
[00:17:45.110 --> 00:17:50.370] Speaker 1: acquiring Tesla in an all stock deal is the likelier structure again it was speculation no
[00:17:50.370 --> 00:17:57.030] Speaker 1: it's not a deal uh tesla has their annual meeting on december 3rd uh there's no mention of
[00:17:57.030 --> 00:18:01.430] Speaker 1: a merger in the ballot etc so that's another thing so it's not going to happen that soon i
[00:18:01.430 --> 00:18:08.110] Speaker 1: don't believe um tesla has of course a big multi -billion dollar stake in
[00:18:08.110 --> 00:18:14.270] Speaker 1: xai which became spacex shares so that's good there's already kind of co -ownership there
[00:18:14.270 --> 00:18:21.110] Speaker 1: but again there's no ak's there's no press releases no nothing but elon is also
[00:18:21.110 --> 00:18:27.910] Speaker 1: hinting at it in some very breadcrumb like spacex x tesla tweets
[00:18:27.910 --> 00:18:32.550] Speaker 1: and things and of course we had the car show last week the best demo i've ever seen in my
[00:18:32.550 --> 00:18:39.490] Speaker 1: life cost a lot of eds but it still was fun anyhow um these
[00:18:39.490 --> 00:18:43.810] Speaker 1: two companies are going together the question is when and when we look at the prediction
[00:18:43.810 --> 00:18:49.950] Speaker 1: markets the odds of spacex tesla merger spiked over the last few days to nearly 60
[00:18:49.950 --> 00:18:56.950] Speaker 1: circa spring 2027 that is what five six months away
[00:18:56.950 --> 00:19:02.930] Speaker 1: not far 60 chance is pretty high if you go to calci you'll see the same thing this could be
[00:19:02.930 --> 00:19:08.430] Speaker 1: calci this is calci if you go to polymarket it's pretty much the same thing too the odds
[00:19:08.430 --> 00:19:13.910] Speaker 1: are spiking so something is cooking for sure now getting back before we get into the
[00:19:13.910 --> 00:19:18.310] Speaker 1: numbers and some new price predictions too this is where it gets interesting so how bullish
[00:19:18.310 --> 00:19:24.370] Speaker 1: should you be okay they have so many moats they have so much ability to do stuff so fast
[00:19:24.370 --> 00:19:29.410] Speaker 1: they got jensen wang in the pocket rumors i heard from a visual source they've locked up 30
[00:19:29.410 --> 00:19:33.370] Speaker 1: to 40 percent of the vera rubin allocation from nvidia some of those are going to go into
[00:19:33.370 --> 00:19:37.270] Speaker 1: space next year as well they're building a special version of that that is going to be
[00:19:37.270 --> 00:19:44.190] Speaker 1: what's it called radiation capable for ICU cypher sniper he's a space
[00:19:44.190 --> 00:19:50.610] Speaker 1: guru understands the importance of radiation proofing your chips up there um there's also
[00:19:50.610 --> 00:19:55.270] Speaker 1: rumor of 40 billion dollar nvidia financing which is in talks of apollo remember if jensen
[00:19:55.270 --> 00:19:59.690] Speaker 1: and elon want 40 billion dollars they just wave their hand and say give it to me they have
[00:19:59.690 --> 00:20:06.290] Speaker 1: no problem raising cash no problem at all uh arc believe tesla space x will get to
[00:20:06.290 --> 00:20:13.210] Speaker 1: 66 to 67 gigawatts by 2031 that goes into my valuation model by the way and musk said he
[00:20:13.210 --> 00:20:18.270] Speaker 1: would be very disappointed if that's all they get to so again they've got the moats they've
[00:20:18.270 --> 00:20:22.730] Speaker 1: got the advantages the ability to build nobody else is able to keep up with them or
[00:20:22.730 --> 00:20:27.930] Speaker 1: monetize things quicker this means you should be very bullish and i'm only talking compute
[00:20:27.930 --> 00:20:34.630] Speaker 1: nothing more so this is my latest number 12 or 13 i do like the number
[00:20:34.630 --> 00:20:41.590] Speaker 1: 13 by the way of spacex elon web services compute by 2031 price
[00:20:41.590 --> 00:20:48.090] Speaker 1: target target only and again the more compute they have the more scale they have the more
[00:20:48.090 --> 00:20:52.570] Speaker 1: profitability they have so bear that in mind when you look at the ebitda and we're going to
[00:20:52.570 --> 00:20:58.510] Speaker 1: go into way more depth or depth regarding these price prediction models but just my base
[00:20:58.510 --> 00:21:05.410] Speaker 1: case of 66 .5 gigawatts of online compute by 2031. Elon says it's going to be a lot higher
[00:21:05.410 --> 00:21:12.330] Speaker 1: than that. That would take the price of just, just the compute business alone of SpaceX.
[00:21:12.630 --> 00:21:19.210] Speaker 1: Nothing else. No value attributed to launch or Star Shield or
[00:21:19.210 --> 00:21:25.410] Speaker 1: any of the other goods, Starlink. Nothing. Just compute. That would take the share price,
[00:21:25.610 --> 00:21:32.570] Speaker 1: and a very conservative multiple, of $825 from here. That's a 5 .65x. If we get
[00:21:32.570 --> 00:21:36.370] Speaker 1: to the bull case of doubling the gigawatts online, that would take the share price to
[00:21:36.370 --> 00:21:43.170] Speaker 1: nearly $4 ,000 to 21 .7x from here. That is just compute. Please don't confuse
[00:21:43.170 --> 00:21:49.810] Speaker 1: this with anything else. And remember, as I said before, many times, the retire -on bag for
[00:21:49.810 --> 00:21:50.230] Speaker 1: SpaceX
[00:21:51.590 --> 00:21:57.190] Speaker 1: needs to be about 655 shares. So if we go back here, 655 shares
[00:21:57.190 --> 00:22:04.130] Speaker 1: times that price target 825 gets you
[00:22:04.130 --> 00:22:09.290] Speaker 1: about $540 ,000 approximately. And of course, nearly $4 ,000,
[00:22:09.790 --> 00:22:16.490] Speaker 1: 655 shares is about 2 .4 million just for the compute piece. And the idea of that target,
[00:22:16.650 --> 00:22:23.270] Speaker 1: by the way, is what gets you to a million dollars of value in the year 2032. Two, the point
[00:22:23.270 --> 00:22:28.610] Speaker 1: I'm trying to make here is the compute business alone gets you there very fast. So
[00:22:28.610 --> 00:22:35.290] Speaker 1: my job was to build a SpaceX retire -on bag. I got that
[00:22:35.290 --> 00:22:40.530] Speaker 1: done and Tesla doesn't go away either. They're going to merge. There will be a premium. We
[00:22:40.530 --> 00:22:47.090] Speaker 1: don't know how much yet. So let's finish with, this was inspired by So in the community.
[00:22:47.290 --> 00:22:52.490] Speaker 1: He put together, you have to pick one, which will outperform the next four years by the way
[00:22:52.490 --> 00:22:59.450] Speaker 1: 0 .18 of a bitcoin is $15 ,000 100 shares of spacex is $15 ,000 and the
[00:22:59.450 --> 00:23:05.990] Speaker 1: poll results were one vote that bitcoin would outperform spacex 100 shares of spacex
[00:23:05.990 --> 00:23:12.290] Speaker 1: 78 of the vote ignore the last part brothers waste time but we did a different poll as well
[00:23:12.290 --> 00:23:18.910] Speaker 1: shout out to the team behind me who should have sent it to me Here we are. Which will
[00:23:18.910 --> 00:23:25.750] Speaker 1: perform better? So the poll said 0 .18 of a Bitcoin. 26 % of you believe Bitcoin will
[00:23:25.750 --> 00:23:32.730] Speaker 1: outperform SpaceX and outperform 100 shares of SpaceX. 0 .18 Bitcoin. 74 % of
[00:23:32.730 --> 00:23:39.710] Speaker 1: you said 100 shares of SpaceX. So it's good to have both. But I do very much believe
[00:23:39.710 --> 00:23:46.690] Speaker 1: that AI is the faster horse. Bitcoin is there in case the world goes to poop, which it is.
[00:23:47.090 --> 00:23:48.850] Speaker 1: That direction is pretty clear.
[00:23:50.230 --> 00:23:54.050] Speaker 1: Anyway, that was the story today, my friends. I hope you enjoyed it. I hope you all learned
[00:23:54.050 --> 00:23:58.750] Speaker 1: something new. Big thank you to everybody for coming. And of course, huge shout out to Boat
[00:23:58.750 --> 00:24:04.270] Speaker 1: Corn again, GQ Trader, B -Man, Booth McDuck, Nick M, I am Colt, Holly Akayle, long -term
[00:24:04.270 --> 00:24:09.350] Speaker 1: holder. Never seen a company like this in my life, ever. And I used to say I've never seen
[00:24:09.350 --> 00:24:13.250] Speaker 1: a company like Tesla either, But, wow, can you imagine the two of them together? That's
[00:24:13.250 --> 00:24:18.210] Speaker 1: going to be wild. Thank you, Sean D, CyberSniper, T &D, Tesla. Everybody take care. Back
[00:24:18.210 --> 00:24:19.630] Speaker 1: tomorrow for Okta.
[00:24:21.070 --> 00:24:23.290] Speaker 1: Get, start building a bag of Teslax,
[00:24:24.730 --> 00:24:29.950] Speaker 1: SpaceX, if you haven't already. I know that the prices are different. There's unlocks
[00:24:29.950 --> 00:24:33.190] Speaker 1: coming and everything else. But this will be interesting from an earnings perspective.
[00:24:33.630 --> 00:24:37.690] Speaker 1: Let's see if we get some nice earnings surprises, too. Thanks all. Have a good night. Bye.