1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:04,840 Speaker 1: Bitcoin started crashing and everyone was asking themselves, was this all just a massive 2 00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: fake out? There's a report that highlights how different this cycle is relative to others. 3 00:00:09,900 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: The bond market doesn't really make sense. And there's overall so many things going on 4 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:18,020 Speaker 1: right now that half of it could be enough. In today's video, you're going to see the large 5 00:00:18,020 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 1: position that I have just put on on Bitcoin, the levels I'm watching and exactly what I'm 6 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:26,380 Speaker 1: going to do with my money. Now, before we get into the boring but important data, let's 7 00:00:26,380 --> 00:00:31,340 Speaker 1: just have a look at Bitcoin on its own so ever since the high we put in bitcoin made a low 8 00:00:31,340 --> 00:00:36,820 Speaker 1: about 8 .2 away now here's the thing ladies and gentlemen if you've been watching this 9 00:00:36,820 --> 00:00:42,160 Speaker 1: channel you know how much i was talking about this level as a potential very very strong 10 00:00:42,160 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: support level and yesterday we actually ended up hitting that uh perfectly right we've 11 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: already started to see the market reverse and this right here is the area which i am paying 12 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:56,660 Speaker 1: attention to next i want to see bitcoin of course break the downtrend that has existed 13 00:00:56,660 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: since you know early october but more importantly this level right here is extremely strong 14 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:06,940 Speaker 1: not only is it the value area high but it's also the point of control and we have the 50 15 00:01:06,940 --> 00:01:12,660 Speaker 1: simple moving average that bitcoin by the way used as resistant when we had the last sort 16 00:01:12,660 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: of flash crash towards eighty thousand dollars so it is obvious that this is a massive 17 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:22,740 Speaker 1: resistance level and so if bitcoin can end up breaking this i don't think we'll come back 18 00:01:22,740 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: down but there's a chance bitcoin won't now again i don't just talk the talk i walk the 19 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:31,940 Speaker 1: walk so the level i gave you all publicly many many times on this channel i actually took 20 00:01:31,940 --> 00:01:36,420 Speaker 1: along from currently floating about three thousand dollars in profit my breakeven level is 21 00:01:36,420 --> 00:01:40,700 Speaker 1: that extremely strong resistance level which i just showed you and i have my take profit 22 00:01:40,700 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 1: right now at about 90 000 now again if you want to know pretty much my every move well then 23 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:50,060 Speaker 1: you can join my free telegram group it's literally entirely free and i post videos like 24 00:01:50,060 --> 00:01:55,500 Speaker 1: this one where i give you market outlooks i post my trades uh and we you know eventually 25 00:01:55,500 --> 00:01:59,940 Speaker 1: we'll do private sunday meeting so again if that's of any interest it's literally free well 26 00:01:59,940 --> 00:02:03,340 Speaker 1: then check out the link down below and in case you're interested uh what i'm trading on 27 00:02:03,340 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 1: here is blowfin that's my personal exchange it's simply where my money goes the furthest 28 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:11,540 Speaker 1: and i've just managed to the scope and i've just managed to pull in another massive offer 29 00:02:11,540 --> 00:02:15,920 Speaker 1: for you guys so you can right now claim a thousand dollars as a deposit bonus but you could 30 00:02:15,920 --> 00:02:21,740 Speaker 1: also claim less than that right you deposit 100 you get 20 500 you get 100 2500 you get 500 31 00:02:21,740 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 1: and if you do a net deposit of ten thousand dollars you get one thousand dollars entirely 32 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:30,660 Speaker 1: for free so again if you're on an exchange that does not have this well then you're simply 33 00:02:30,660 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: losing out on so much free cash and if that's of any interest and if you want to trade with 34 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 1: me under my team during this bull run make sure you check out the link down below again it 35 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: is no necessity but this is actually the exchange that i use myself oh and fyi if you're in 36 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 1: the us or canada all you have to do is enable a vpn and part of the reason why i decided to 37 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:51,380 Speaker 1: long bitcoin from eighty thousand dollars was first of all, because we had a massive buy 38 00:02:51,380 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 1: order. Okay, so there was just an immense amount of liquidity buildup right at $80 ,000. 39 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: And as price was sort of selling off here, I of course anticipated ever since the top of 40 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:05,260 Speaker 1: this consolidation, that it was going to revisit $80 ,000. And I was prepared to take along 41 00:03:05,260 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 1: from that area, which is exactly what I did. It is also an area, you can see all these 42 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:13,740 Speaker 1: green and red bubbles, right? It's an area where a lot of trading volume took place. And 43 00:03:13,740 --> 00:03:17,940 Speaker 1: that's often when we can expect the reaction. Right now, there are two potential scenarios 44 00:03:17,940 --> 00:03:21,300 Speaker 1: for Bitcoin. Obviously, it's going to go up or down. But if we have a look at the actual 45 00:03:21,300 --> 00:03:27,820 Speaker 1: buy orders, you can see at 78 ,000 and at 75 ,000, we have relatively large buy orders. So 46 00:03:27,820 --> 00:03:32,060 Speaker 1: could that suggest that Bitcoin is going towards 75 ,000? Yes. Do I think it's going to 47 00:03:32,060 --> 00:03:36,940 Speaker 1: happen? Not necessarily. Why? Because if we have a look out here, have a look at how much 48 00:03:36,940 --> 00:03:42,860 Speaker 1: liquidity there is to the upside. So 90 ,000, 95, 99, 100, and it just gets, you know, 49 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:48,700 Speaker 1: worse and worse. We have so many sell orders resting above $100 ,000. $80 ,000 was the 50 00:03:48,700 --> 00:03:52,420 Speaker 1: worst one. That was the largest buy order that has now been liquidated. Therefore, 51 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:57,300 Speaker 1: depending on the macro environment, we can hope for a push towards $100 ,000 at any given 52 00:03:57,300 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 1: moment. But recently, we got the PPI results, and they were not as great as one could have 53 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: hoped. So you can see that the producer price index for final demand increased 1 .3 % in 54 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: September. That's quite insane. What we can also see is on an adjusted basis, the index for 55 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: final demand climbed 6 .3 % by the 12 months ended in September, which is the largest 12 56 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: -month increase since moving up 6 .4 % in December of 2022. Now, this suggests that 57 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:31,280 Speaker 1: inflation is starting to spread beyond energy, right? Before, it was mostly concentrated in 58 00:04:31,280 --> 00:04:34,900 Speaker 1: energy due to the supply disruption in the Middle East, and that was sort of more 59 00:04:34,900 --> 00:04:40,140 Speaker 1: manageable. But now, everything suggests that inflation is starting to spread beyond energy 60 00:04:40,140 --> 00:04:44,460 Speaker 1: and, you know, throughout the broader economy. But then something very weird happened 61 00:04:44,460 --> 00:04:49,140 Speaker 1: because this was supposed to be incredibly negative. Yet for the first time this year, the 62 00:04:49,140 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: yields, both the two -year yield and the 10 -year yield, you know, are crashing. So the 10 63 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: -year yield has gone down approximately 6 % and the two -year yield has gone down 64 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 1: approximately 5 .6%. Now, following the report, they both crashed additionally and more 65 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:09,060 Speaker 1: specifically the 10 -year yield, which was the one that seemed impossible to correct. So 66 00:05:09,060 --> 00:05:14,020 Speaker 1: why did the yields collapse if inflation got worse? Well, in my opinion, it's because the 67 00:05:14,020 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 1: bond market is concerned about financial stress elsewhere, and particularly, in my opinion, 68 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: debt -heavy AI companies like CoreWeave. So if we take a look at CoreWeave, right, we can 69 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 1: see that these standouts were five -year CDS spreads for CoreWeave, which blew past 1 ,100 70 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:35,540 Speaker 1: basis points according to the S &P Global Market Intelligence data. And its bond yields 71 00:05:35,540 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 1: rose to as much as 16 % before retreating to around 14%. This right here is typically a 72 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:46,780 Speaker 1: benchmark for extreme stress. But here's what you have to understand, okay, treasury yields 73 00:05:46,780 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 1: falling because inflation improves is totally different from treasury yields falling 74 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: because investors fear financial stress. The former is generally favorable for risk assets, 75 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:02,700 Speaker 1: and the latter can initially be dangerous. Nevertheless, despite the inflation surprise, we 76 00:06:02,700 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 1: also saw a decrease in the October rate hike probability. So when the core CPI and CPI 77 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: earlier this week actually came in a lot hotter than anticipated, this briefly went from 18 78 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 1: % all the way up to 44%. And now it has made its way all the way back down to 16%. But 79 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:24,900 Speaker 1: here's the thing, the December probability has increased from about 84 % to 90%, which is 80 00:06:24,900 --> 00:06:29,220 Speaker 1: negative. So what we have to hope for is a more dovish tone during the October meeting, 81 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: that would almost certainly change the December meeting probability. I don't find this as 82 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:40,300 Speaker 1: an accurate number just yet, because this almost always changes entirely depending on what 83 00:06:40,300 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: is being said during the previous meeting, in this case, the October meeting. So the macro 84 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:48,900 Speaker 1: environment remains dangerous. I'm sure we all know that. But yields and the dollar are 85 00:06:48,900 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: finally able to give risk assets some breathing room, well -needed breathing room. And 86 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:58,380 Speaker 1: what's fascinating is that Bitcoin's underlying holder behavior was already changing before 87 00:06:58,380 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 1: any of that happened. so this cycle bitcoin did something for the first time which is 88 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:07,420 Speaker 1: something we have again literally never seen before so the bitcoin bear market has 89 00:07:07,420 --> 00:07:11,780 Speaker 1: historically followed a script they all had a closure below the realized price so you guys 90 00:07:11,780 --> 00:07:16,700 Speaker 1: can see that the bottom here in 2019 closed below the realized price we saw it again here 91 00:07:16,700 --> 00:07:21,820 Speaker 1: in last cycle 2023 it went below the realized price and then we of course saw the bull run 92 00:07:21,820 --> 00:07:27,060 Speaker 1: but we didn't see that this time around right so for the first time bitcoin started a bull 93 00:07:27,060 --> 00:07:31,340 Speaker 1: run without closing below its realized price but what does that even mean well in order to 94 00:07:31,340 --> 00:07:35,380 Speaker 1: understand that we have to look at this long -term holders have largely stopped selling at 95 00:07:35,380 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: a loss their realized loss peaked on august 12th and has since fallen by about 85 percent 96 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:46,540 Speaker 1: now this suggests that the capillation phase has already cooled substantially even though 97 00:07:46,540 --> 00:07:52,020 Speaker 1: the macro environment you know remains incredibly hostile so while this may in some eyes be 98 00:07:52,020 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: negative it actually isn't. It's incredibly positive because it does suggest that the vast 99 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: majority of the capitalization is past us, right? It's already happened. And as I said just 100 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,780 Speaker 1: moments ago, right, the dollar is finally giving us the breathing room that we were waiting 101 00:08:05,780 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 1: for. And this level is something I called months in advance. I said, expect the dollar to 102 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:15,580 Speaker 1: go from this low to this resistance level. And we, of course, got that. And then I was 103 00:08:15,580 --> 00:08:19,300 Speaker 1: hoping for a reaction lower from this resistance level forward. If you've been watching the 104 00:08:19,300 --> 00:08:22,900 Speaker 1: videos, well, then you know exactly what I'm talking about. Now the dollar finally arrived, 105 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 1: right? It's been about a week there consolidating. But now it has hit, of course, the 106 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:31,860 Speaker 1: resistance level and also the 200 simple moving average, and we are seemingly pulling back. 107 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:36,380 Speaker 1: So if the dollar can continue this trend, and it can continue to go lower, what I'm 108 00:08:36,380 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: watching for next is of course, the 50 simple moving average, but more so the trend line 109 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:47,420 Speaker 1: that has previously sent the dollar up literally every single time it tried to break it so 110 00:08:47,420 --> 00:08:53,020 Speaker 1: what i'm looking for here is a break of this trend line if that happens i think bitcoin is 111 00:08:53,020 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 1: in really good hands especially if the yields can continue falling now let's talk about the 112 00:08:58,680 --> 00:09:03,540 Speaker 1: worst case scenario for bitcoin okay because not that i think bitcoin is going to go there 113 00:09:03,540 --> 00:09:07,940 Speaker 1: but in case it does well then you're all prepared and you know exactly what i am going to 114 00:09:07,940 --> 00:09:12,940 Speaker 1: do so one thing that bitcoin hasn't done this cycle which it has during other cycles is 115 00:09:12,940 --> 00:09:19,860 Speaker 1: retrace towards equilibrium, which is the 50 % level of the entire range. So this is 116 00:09:19,860 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: typically how Wall Street evaluates an asset. When it's trading above equilibrium, it's a 117 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:28,260 Speaker 1: premium. When it's trading below equilibrium, it's a discount. And so even during extremely 118 00:09:28,260 --> 00:09:33,860 Speaker 1: strong markets, you will often get these pullbacks, right? Towards a discount, people will 119 00:09:33,860 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 1: buy the asset in discount and it will continue the uptrend. That is a very, very normal 120 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:42,420 Speaker 1: market behavior. And it is something that we could expect. does it mean it's going to 121 00:09:42,420 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: happen no and i certainly don't hope it will but in case it does well then you know exactly 122 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:50,860 Speaker 1: what level i'm watching the 200 simple moving average also remains very very close to 123 00:09:50,860 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 1: equilibrium and so overall this is a very strong level in my opinion if we go back here 124 00:09:55,520 --> 00:10:00,940 Speaker 1: right you can see this massive massive order both sell and buy order which happens to 125 00:10:00,940 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 1: overlap almost perfectly with equilibrium we're looking at here so in my opinion this is 126 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:11,300 Speaker 1: one massive support level. And I will be looking at a lot more to my Bitcoin longs if we 127 00:10:11,300 --> 00:10:15,180 Speaker 1: end up dropping all the way down here to the low 70s. But again, we're not talking about a 128 00:10:15,180 --> 00:10:19,540 Speaker 1: sentiment shift at all, right? Bitcoin is actually holding up the 50 simple moving average 129 00:10:19,540 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 1: extremely well. And right below that, we have very, very large volume nodes, which can also 130 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: act as a massive support level. So I think as long as Bitcoin holds this level between 80 131 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 1: and let's say 77 ,000, I wouldn't classify any of this as a sentiment shift. In fact, I 132 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:41,980 Speaker 1: wouldn't call it a true sentiment shift until Bitcoin starts violating equilibrium here. So 133 00:10:41,980 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: if we start moving towards mid 60s, that's when I would, you know, seriously consider this 134 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: a sentiment shift. Now, there's one level on Bitcoin right now that I am watching closer 135 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:54,580 Speaker 1: than anything and one level that we seriously hope Bitcoin can hold. And that, ladies and 136 00:10:54,580 --> 00:10:57,840 Speaker 1: gentlemen, is the gamma flip at $79 ,750. 137 00:10:59,300 --> 00:11:04,140 Speaker 1: You see, right now, Bitcoin is trading within positive gamma. What happens when it's 138 00:11:04,140 --> 00:11:07,900 Speaker 1: trading within positive gamma is that dealers are going to buy the weakness and they're 139 00:11:07,900 --> 00:11:13,100 Speaker 1: going to sell the strength. This causes price suppression, but it's not a bad environment 140 00:11:13,100 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 1: to be within when you're expecting an uptrend. But as soon as this flips, okay, they are 141 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:22,020 Speaker 1: going to be selling the weakness and buying the strength, which means the moves are going 142 00:11:22,020 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: to be much more aggressive and they're going to be much larger. And because the flip 143 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:32,020 Speaker 1: currently sits beneath price, if Bitcoin drops below $79 ,750 and stays there sustained, 144 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: well, then we can expect whatever downside comes following that is going to be much more 145 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:42,020 Speaker 1: aggressive. So ideally, we hold the level of $79 ,750. And we, of course, still have the 146 00:11:42,020 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 1: massively positive gex level at $90 ,000, which can also be another reason for Bitcoin to 147 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 1: want to move higher once again. Previously, we had the put wall at $80 ,000. That has now 148 00:11:52,680 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 1: been completely wiped out. And we can only hope that $80 ,000 was the bottom and $100 ,000 149 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: is next. Now what I'm personally looking for to determine this is a very specific level 150 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 1: that I believe a lot of people have missed entirely. What I'm talking about here is the 151 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:10,540 Speaker 1: orange line that you're looking at here. Okay, this represents people who bought Bitcoin 152 00:12:10,540 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 1: six to 12 months ago. So short term holders, if you will. And you can see the last time we 153 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: tried to retest this was earlier, you know, this year and price got rejected. Then we tried 154 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: to retest the more long term holder break even price which again is people that bought you 155 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:30,300 Speaker 1: know bitcoin within the last one to two years and it again got rejected okay and you guys 156 00:12:30,300 --> 00:12:33,500 Speaker 1: can see that we're now approaching those two levels again so the first level i'm paying 157 00:12:33,500 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: attention to is eighty seven thousand seven hundred dollars if we can break above that 158 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: great i think demand is obviously a lot stronger than it has been previously when it got 159 00:12:41,560 --> 00:12:45,680 Speaker 1: rejected and if we break that well then i think a hundred thousand dollars is imminent and 160 00:12:45,680 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: whether we go higher from that point forward depends whether we can close above the level 161 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:56,260 Speaker 1: 99 ,500. Ladies and gentlemen, the macro environment is still extremely rough. Yeah, 162 00:12:56,540 --> 00:13:00,780 Speaker 1: Bitcoin has held up tremendously well. In fact, it has held up much better relative to the 163 00:13:00,780 --> 00:13:05,980 Speaker 1: stock market as of recently, but Bitcoin is not immune. And so if inflation continues to 164 00:13:05,980 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 1: run higher, and there's, you know, if there's no solution in the Middle East, and that 165 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: continues to worsen, well, then Bitcoin will inevitably get hit. And there are a few levels 166 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:18,300 Speaker 1: that I'm watching within the yields, as well as the credit spreads. If you want to know 167 00:13:18,300 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: exactly how I'm moving forward with this and how i'm going to prepare for this in case it 168 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: does happen well then of course make sure you join my free telegram group i'm sure i will 169 00:13:25,680 --> 00:13:30,140 Speaker 1: also end up talking about it on this channel if we do end up seeing that and so joining the 170 00:13:30,140 --> 00:13:34,020 Speaker 1: group is of course entirely up to you but ladies and gentlemen you now know exactly what i 171 00:13:34,020 --> 00:13:38,180 Speaker 1: believe about bitcoin what levels i'm watching where i'm long from and what signals i'm 172 00:13:38,180 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 1: waiting for to confirm whether bitcoin is going much much higher or not so again i hope you 173 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:47,500 Speaker 1: enjoyed this video if you enjoy my content if you enjoy the analysis i I put a lot of hours 174 00:13:47,500 --> 00:13:52,820 Speaker 1: into this. And what I do here is try and separate myself from the usual, very, very loud 175 00:13:52,820 --> 00:13:56,820 Speaker 1: influencers that look at data that simply do not matter. I take my time with my research. 176 00:13:56,900 --> 00:14:00,780 Speaker 1: I've studied macroeconomics for years and I applied within the crypto market. And if you 177 00:14:00,780 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: enjoy this content, well then please like the video, subscribe to the channel, maybe even 178 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 1: leave a comment. It would help me out a lot and it's entirely free. If not, well then 179 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 1: that's okay. All you have to do to make me satisfied is show up in the next video.