Bitcoin's Next Big Move Might Have Nothing To Do With Bitcoin... We Have Waited 1,093 Days For This
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpCE6FtQpKw
Language: en | ASR: large-v3-turbo @ 0a363e9161cbc7ed1431c9597a8ceaf0c4f78fcf

[00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.840] Speaker 1: Bitcoin started crashing and everyone was asking themselves, was this all just a massive
[00:00:04.840 --> 00:00:09.680] Speaker 1: fake out? There's a report that highlights how different this cycle is relative to others.
[00:00:09.900 --> 00:00:14.080] Speaker 1: The bond market doesn't really make sense. And there's overall so many things going on
[00:00:14.080 --> 00:00:18.020] Speaker 1: right now that half of it could be enough. In today's video, you're going to see the large
[00:00:18.020 --> 00:00:22.440] Speaker 1: position that I have just put on on Bitcoin, the levels I'm watching and exactly what I'm
[00:00:22.440 --> 00:00:26.380] Speaker 1: going to do with my money. Now, before we get into the boring but important data, let's
[00:00:26.380 --> 00:00:31.340] Speaker 1: just have a look at Bitcoin on its own so ever since the high we put in bitcoin made a low
[00:00:31.340 --> 00:00:36.820] Speaker 1: about 8 .2 away now here's the thing ladies and gentlemen if you've been watching this
[00:00:36.820 --> 00:00:42.160] Speaker 1: channel you know how much i was talking about this level as a potential very very strong
[00:00:42.160 --> 00:00:47.080] Speaker 1: support level and yesterday we actually ended up hitting that uh perfectly right we've
[00:00:47.080 --> 00:00:51.240] Speaker 1: already started to see the market reverse and this right here is the area which i am paying
[00:00:51.240 --> 00:00:56.660] Speaker 1: attention to next i want to see bitcoin of course break the downtrend that has existed
[00:00:56.660 --> 00:01:01.560] Speaker 1: since you know early october but more importantly this level right here is extremely strong
[00:01:01.560 --> 00:01:06.940] Speaker 1: not only is it the value area high but it's also the point of control and we have the 50
[00:01:06.940 --> 00:01:12.660] Speaker 1: simple moving average that bitcoin by the way used as resistant when we had the last sort
[00:01:12.660 --> 00:01:17.880] Speaker 1: of flash crash towards eighty thousand dollars so it is obvious that this is a massive
[00:01:17.880 --> 00:01:22.740] Speaker 1: resistance level and so if bitcoin can end up breaking this i don't think we'll come back
[00:01:22.740 --> 00:01:27.640] Speaker 1: down but there's a chance bitcoin won't now again i don't just talk the talk i walk the
[00:01:27.640 --> 00:01:31.940] Speaker 1: walk so the level i gave you all publicly many many times on this channel i actually took
[00:01:31.940 --> 00:01:36.420] Speaker 1: along from currently floating about three thousand dollars in profit my breakeven level is
[00:01:36.420 --> 00:01:40.700] Speaker 1: that extremely strong resistance level which i just showed you and i have my take profit
[00:01:40.700 --> 00:01:45.880] Speaker 1: right now at about 90 000 now again if you want to know pretty much my every move well then
[00:01:45.880 --> 00:01:50.060] Speaker 1: you can join my free telegram group it's literally entirely free and i post videos like
[00:01:50.060 --> 00:01:55.500] Speaker 1: this one where i give you market outlooks i post my trades uh and we you know eventually
[00:01:55.500 --> 00:01:59.940] Speaker 1: we'll do private sunday meeting so again if that's of any interest it's literally free well
[00:01:59.940 --> 00:02:03.340] Speaker 1: then check out the link down below and in case you're interested uh what i'm trading on
[00:02:03.340 --> 00:02:07.440] Speaker 1: here is blowfin that's my personal exchange it's simply where my money goes the furthest
[00:02:07.440 --> 00:02:11.540] Speaker 1: and i've just managed to the scope and i've just managed to pull in another massive offer
[00:02:11.540 --> 00:02:15.920] Speaker 1: for you guys so you can right now claim a thousand dollars as a deposit bonus but you could
[00:02:15.920 --> 00:02:21.740] Speaker 1: also claim less than that right you deposit 100 you get 20 500 you get 100 2500 you get 500
[00:02:21.740 --> 00:02:26.320] Speaker 1: and if you do a net deposit of ten thousand dollars you get one thousand dollars entirely
[00:02:26.320 --> 00:02:30.660] Speaker 1: for free so again if you're on an exchange that does not have this well then you're simply
[00:02:30.660 --> 00:02:34.680] Speaker 1: losing out on so much free cash and if that's of any interest and if you want to trade with
[00:02:34.680 --> 00:02:38.560] Speaker 1: me under my team during this bull run make sure you check out the link down below again it
[00:02:38.560 --> 00:02:42.840] Speaker 1: is no necessity but this is actually the exchange that i use myself oh and fyi if you're in
[00:02:42.840 --> 00:02:47.080] Speaker 1: the us or canada all you have to do is enable a vpn and part of the reason why i decided to
[00:02:47.080 --> 00:02:51.380] Speaker 1: long bitcoin from eighty thousand dollars was first of all, because we had a massive buy
[00:02:51.380 --> 00:02:55.800] Speaker 1: order. Okay, so there was just an immense amount of liquidity buildup right at $80 ,000.
[00:02:56.080 --> 00:03:00.600] Speaker 1: And as price was sort of selling off here, I of course anticipated ever since the top of
[00:03:00.600 --> 00:03:05.260] Speaker 1: this consolidation, that it was going to revisit $80 ,000. And I was prepared to take along
[00:03:05.260 --> 00:03:09.560] Speaker 1: from that area, which is exactly what I did. It is also an area, you can see all these
[00:03:09.560 --> 00:03:13.740] Speaker 1: green and red bubbles, right? It's an area where a lot of trading volume took place. And
[00:03:13.740 --> 00:03:17.940] Speaker 1: that's often when we can expect the reaction. Right now, there are two potential scenarios
[00:03:17.940 --> 00:03:21.300] Speaker 1: for Bitcoin. Obviously, it's going to go up or down. But if we have a look at the actual
[00:03:21.300 --> 00:03:27.820] Speaker 1: buy orders, you can see at 78 ,000 and at 75 ,000, we have relatively large buy orders. So
[00:03:27.820 --> 00:03:32.060] Speaker 1: could that suggest that Bitcoin is going towards 75 ,000? Yes. Do I think it's going to
[00:03:32.060 --> 00:03:36.940] Speaker 1: happen? Not necessarily. Why? Because if we have a look out here, have a look at how much
[00:03:36.940 --> 00:03:42.860] Speaker 1: liquidity there is to the upside. So 90 ,000, 95, 99, 100, and it just gets, you know,
[00:03:43.000 --> 00:03:48.700] Speaker 1: worse and worse. We have so many sell orders resting above $100 ,000. $80 ,000 was the
[00:03:48.700 --> 00:03:52.420] Speaker 1: worst one. That was the largest buy order that has now been liquidated. Therefore,
[00:03:52.680 --> 00:03:57.300] Speaker 1: depending on the macro environment, we can hope for a push towards $100 ,000 at any given
[00:03:57.300 --> 00:04:02.960] Speaker 1: moment. But recently, we got the PPI results, and they were not as great as one could have
[00:04:02.960 --> 00:04:08.520] Speaker 1: hoped. So you can see that the producer price index for final demand increased 1 .3 % in
[00:04:08.520 --> 00:04:14.000] Speaker 1: September. That's quite insane. What we can also see is on an adjusted basis, the index for
[00:04:14.000 --> 00:04:20.160] Speaker 1: final demand climbed 6 .3 % by the 12 months ended in September, which is the largest 12
[00:04:20.160 --> 00:04:26.880] Speaker 1: -month increase since moving up 6 .4 % in December of 2022. Now, this suggests that
[00:04:26.880 --> 00:04:31.280] Speaker 1: inflation is starting to spread beyond energy, right? Before, it was mostly concentrated in
[00:04:31.280 --> 00:04:34.900] Speaker 1: energy due to the supply disruption in the Middle East, and that was sort of more
[00:04:34.900 --> 00:04:40.140] Speaker 1: manageable. But now, everything suggests that inflation is starting to spread beyond energy
[00:04:40.140 --> 00:04:44.460] Speaker 1: and, you know, throughout the broader economy. But then something very weird happened
[00:04:44.460 --> 00:04:49.140] Speaker 1: because this was supposed to be incredibly negative. Yet for the first time this year, the
[00:04:49.140 --> 00:04:53.760] Speaker 1: yields, both the two -year yield and the 10 -year yield, you know, are crashing. So the 10
[00:04:53.760 --> 00:04:58.520] Speaker 1: -year yield has gone down approximately 6 % and the two -year yield has gone down
[00:04:58.520 --> 00:05:04.160] Speaker 1: approximately 5 .6%. Now, following the report, they both crashed additionally and more
[00:05:04.160 --> 00:05:09.060] Speaker 1: specifically the 10 -year yield, which was the one that seemed impossible to correct. So
[00:05:09.060 --> 00:05:14.020] Speaker 1: why did the yields collapse if inflation got worse? Well, in my opinion, it's because the
[00:05:14.020 --> 00:05:18.720] Speaker 1: bond market is concerned about financial stress elsewhere, and particularly, in my opinion,
[00:05:19.040 --> 00:05:24.680] Speaker 1: debt -heavy AI companies like CoreWeave. So if we take a look at CoreWeave, right, we can
[00:05:24.680 --> 00:05:30.680] Speaker 1: see that these standouts were five -year CDS spreads for CoreWeave, which blew past 1 ,100
[00:05:30.680 --> 00:05:35.540] Speaker 1: basis points according to the S &P Global Market Intelligence data. And its bond yields
[00:05:35.540 --> 00:05:41.800] Speaker 1: rose to as much as 16 % before retreating to around 14%. This right here is typically a
[00:05:41.800 --> 00:05:46.780] Speaker 1: benchmark for extreme stress. But here's what you have to understand, okay, treasury yields
[00:05:46.780 --> 00:05:51.920] Speaker 1: falling because inflation improves is totally different from treasury yields falling
[00:05:51.920 --> 00:05:56.560] Speaker 1: because investors fear financial stress. The former is generally favorable for risk assets,
[00:05:56.800 --> 00:06:02.700] Speaker 1: and the latter can initially be dangerous. Nevertheless, despite the inflation surprise, we
[00:06:02.700 --> 00:06:07.960] Speaker 1: also saw a decrease in the October rate hike probability. So when the core CPI and CPI
[00:06:07.960 --> 00:06:13.000] Speaker 1: earlier this week actually came in a lot hotter than anticipated, this briefly went from 18
[00:06:13.000 --> 00:06:18.920] Speaker 1: % all the way up to 44%. And now it has made its way all the way back down to 16%. But
[00:06:18.920 --> 00:06:24.900] Speaker 1: here's the thing, the December probability has increased from about 84 % to 90%, which is
[00:06:24.900 --> 00:06:29.220] Speaker 1: negative. So what we have to hope for is a more dovish tone during the October meeting,
[00:06:29.240 --> 00:06:34.640] Speaker 1: that would almost certainly change the December meeting probability. I don't find this as
[00:06:34.640 --> 00:06:40.300] Speaker 1: an accurate number just yet, because this almost always changes entirely depending on what
[00:06:40.300 --> 00:06:44.520] Speaker 1: is being said during the previous meeting, in this case, the October meeting. So the macro
[00:06:44.520 --> 00:06:48.900] Speaker 1: environment remains dangerous. I'm sure we all know that. But yields and the dollar are
[00:06:48.900 --> 00:06:53.320] Speaker 1: finally able to give risk assets some breathing room, well -needed breathing room. And
[00:06:53.320 --> 00:06:58.380] Speaker 1: what's fascinating is that Bitcoin's underlying holder behavior was already changing before
[00:06:58.380 --> 00:07:03.120] Speaker 1: any of that happened. so this cycle bitcoin did something for the first time which is
[00:07:03.120 --> 00:07:07.420] Speaker 1: something we have again literally never seen before so the bitcoin bear market has
[00:07:07.420 --> 00:07:11.780] Speaker 1: historically followed a script they all had a closure below the realized price so you guys
[00:07:11.780 --> 00:07:16.700] Speaker 1: can see that the bottom here in 2019 closed below the realized price we saw it again here
[00:07:16.700 --> 00:07:21.820] Speaker 1: in last cycle 2023 it went below the realized price and then we of course saw the bull run
[00:07:21.820 --> 00:07:27.060] Speaker 1: but we didn't see that this time around right so for the first time bitcoin started a bull
[00:07:27.060 --> 00:07:31.340] Speaker 1: run without closing below its realized price but what does that even mean well in order to
[00:07:31.340 --> 00:07:35.380] Speaker 1: understand that we have to look at this long -term holders have largely stopped selling at
[00:07:35.380 --> 00:07:41.080] Speaker 1: a loss their realized loss peaked on august 12th and has since fallen by about 85 percent
[00:07:41.080 --> 00:07:46.540] Speaker 1: now this suggests that the capillation phase has already cooled substantially even though
[00:07:46.540 --> 00:07:52.020] Speaker 1: the macro environment you know remains incredibly hostile so while this may in some eyes be
[00:07:52.020 --> 00:07:56.720] Speaker 1: negative it actually isn't. It's incredibly positive because it does suggest that the vast
[00:07:56.720 --> 00:08:01.800] Speaker 1: majority of the capitalization is past us, right? It's already happened. And as I said just
[00:08:01.800 --> 00:08:05.780] Speaker 1: moments ago, right, the dollar is finally giving us the breathing room that we were waiting
[00:08:05.780 --> 00:08:10.960] Speaker 1: for. And this level is something I called months in advance. I said, expect the dollar to
[00:08:10.960 --> 00:08:15.580] Speaker 1: go from this low to this resistance level. And we, of course, got that. And then I was
[00:08:15.580 --> 00:08:19.300] Speaker 1: hoping for a reaction lower from this resistance level forward. If you've been watching the
[00:08:19.300 --> 00:08:22.900] Speaker 1: videos, well, then you know exactly what I'm talking about. Now the dollar finally arrived,
[00:08:23.080 --> 00:08:27.160] Speaker 1: right? It's been about a week there consolidating. But now it has hit, of course, the
[00:08:27.160 --> 00:08:31.860] Speaker 1: resistance level and also the 200 simple moving average, and we are seemingly pulling back.
[00:08:32.080 --> 00:08:36.380] Speaker 1: So if the dollar can continue this trend, and it can continue to go lower, what I'm
[00:08:36.380 --> 00:08:41.280] Speaker 1: watching for next is of course, the 50 simple moving average, but more so the trend line
[00:08:41.280 --> 00:08:47.420] Speaker 1: that has previously sent the dollar up literally every single time it tried to break it so
[00:08:47.420 --> 00:08:53.020] Speaker 1: what i'm looking for here is a break of this trend line if that happens i think bitcoin is
[00:08:53.020 --> 00:08:58.680] Speaker 1: in really good hands especially if the yields can continue falling now let's talk about the
[00:08:58.680 --> 00:09:03.540] Speaker 1: worst case scenario for bitcoin okay because not that i think bitcoin is going to go there
[00:09:03.540 --> 00:09:07.940] Speaker 1: but in case it does well then you're all prepared and you know exactly what i am going to
[00:09:07.940 --> 00:09:12.940] Speaker 1: do so one thing that bitcoin hasn't done this cycle which it has during other cycles is
[00:09:12.940 --> 00:09:19.860] Speaker 1: retrace towards equilibrium, which is the 50 % level of the entire range. So this is
[00:09:19.860 --> 00:09:23.920] Speaker 1: typically how Wall Street evaluates an asset. When it's trading above equilibrium, it's a
[00:09:23.920 --> 00:09:28.260] Speaker 1: premium. When it's trading below equilibrium, it's a discount. And so even during extremely
[00:09:28.260 --> 00:09:33.860] Speaker 1: strong markets, you will often get these pullbacks, right? Towards a discount, people will
[00:09:33.860 --> 00:09:38.720] Speaker 1: buy the asset in discount and it will continue the uptrend. That is a very, very normal
[00:09:38.720 --> 00:09:42.420] Speaker 1: market behavior. And it is something that we could expect. does it mean it's going to
[00:09:42.420 --> 00:09:46.240] Speaker 1: happen no and i certainly don't hope it will but in case it does well then you know exactly
[00:09:46.240 --> 00:09:50.860] Speaker 1: what level i'm watching the 200 simple moving average also remains very very close to
[00:09:50.860 --> 00:09:55.520] Speaker 1: equilibrium and so overall this is a very strong level in my opinion if we go back here
[00:09:55.520 --> 00:10:00.940] Speaker 1: right you can see this massive massive order both sell and buy order which happens to
[00:10:00.940 --> 00:10:05.800] Speaker 1: overlap almost perfectly with equilibrium we're looking at here so in my opinion this is
[00:10:05.800 --> 00:10:11.300] Speaker 1: one massive support level. And I will be looking at a lot more to my Bitcoin longs if we
[00:10:11.300 --> 00:10:15.180] Speaker 1: end up dropping all the way down here to the low 70s. But again, we're not talking about a
[00:10:15.180 --> 00:10:19.540] Speaker 1: sentiment shift at all, right? Bitcoin is actually holding up the 50 simple moving average
[00:10:19.540 --> 00:10:25.000] Speaker 1: extremely well. And right below that, we have very, very large volume nodes, which can also
[00:10:25.000 --> 00:10:30.480] Speaker 1: act as a massive support level. So I think as long as Bitcoin holds this level between 80
[00:10:30.480 --> 00:10:35.960] Speaker 1: and let's say 77 ,000, I wouldn't classify any of this as a sentiment shift. In fact, I
[00:10:35.960 --> 00:10:41.980] Speaker 1: wouldn't call it a true sentiment shift until Bitcoin starts violating equilibrium here. So
[00:10:41.980 --> 00:10:46.280] Speaker 1: if we start moving towards mid 60s, that's when I would, you know, seriously consider this
[00:10:46.280 --> 00:10:50.120] Speaker 1: a sentiment shift. Now, there's one level on Bitcoin right now that I am watching closer
[00:10:50.120 --> 00:10:54.580] Speaker 1: than anything and one level that we seriously hope Bitcoin can hold. And that, ladies and
[00:10:54.580 --> 00:10:57.840] Speaker 1: gentlemen, is the gamma flip at $79 ,750.
[00:10:59.300 --> 00:11:04.140] Speaker 1: You see, right now, Bitcoin is trading within positive gamma. What happens when it's
[00:11:04.140 --> 00:11:07.900] Speaker 1: trading within positive gamma is that dealers are going to buy the weakness and they're
[00:11:07.900 --> 00:11:13.100] Speaker 1: going to sell the strength. This causes price suppression, but it's not a bad environment
[00:11:13.100 --> 00:11:17.200] Speaker 1: to be within when you're expecting an uptrend. But as soon as this flips, okay, they are
[00:11:17.200 --> 00:11:22.020] Speaker 1: going to be selling the weakness and buying the strength, which means the moves are going
[00:11:22.020 --> 00:11:25.360] Speaker 1: to be much more aggressive and they're going to be much larger. And because the flip
[00:11:25.360 --> 00:11:32.020] Speaker 1: currently sits beneath price, if Bitcoin drops below $79 ,750 and stays there sustained,
[00:11:32.360 --> 00:11:36.000] Speaker 1: well, then we can expect whatever downside comes following that is going to be much more
[00:11:36.000 --> 00:11:42.020] Speaker 1: aggressive. So ideally, we hold the level of $79 ,750. And we, of course, still have the
[00:11:42.020 --> 00:11:47.880] Speaker 1: massively positive gex level at $90 ,000, which can also be another reason for Bitcoin to
[00:11:47.880 --> 00:11:52.680] Speaker 1: want to move higher once again. Previously, we had the put wall at $80 ,000. That has now
[00:11:52.680 --> 00:11:57.480] Speaker 1: been completely wiped out. And we can only hope that $80 ,000 was the bottom and $100 ,000
[00:11:57.480 --> 00:12:02.240] Speaker 1: is next. Now what I'm personally looking for to determine this is a very specific level
[00:12:02.240 --> 00:12:05.880] Speaker 1: that I believe a lot of people have missed entirely. What I'm talking about here is the
[00:12:05.880 --> 00:12:10.540] Speaker 1: orange line that you're looking at here. Okay, this represents people who bought Bitcoin
[00:12:10.540 --> 00:12:14.640] Speaker 1: six to 12 months ago. So short term holders, if you will. And you can see the last time we
[00:12:14.640 --> 00:12:20.360] Speaker 1: tried to retest this was earlier, you know, this year and price got rejected. Then we tried
[00:12:20.360 --> 00:12:25.040] Speaker 1: to retest the more long term holder break even price which again is people that bought you
[00:12:25.040 --> 00:12:30.300] Speaker 1: know bitcoin within the last one to two years and it again got rejected okay and you guys
[00:12:30.300 --> 00:12:33.500] Speaker 1: can see that we're now approaching those two levels again so the first level i'm paying
[00:12:33.500 --> 00:12:37.360] Speaker 1: attention to is eighty seven thousand seven hundred dollars if we can break above that
[00:12:37.360 --> 00:12:41.560] Speaker 1: great i think demand is obviously a lot stronger than it has been previously when it got
[00:12:41.560 --> 00:12:45.680] Speaker 1: rejected and if we break that well then i think a hundred thousand dollars is imminent and
[00:12:45.680 --> 00:12:49.760] Speaker 1: whether we go higher from that point forward depends whether we can close above the level
[00:12:49.760 --> 00:12:56.260] Speaker 1: 99 ,500. Ladies and gentlemen, the macro environment is still extremely rough. Yeah,
[00:12:56.540 --> 00:13:00.780] Speaker 1: Bitcoin has held up tremendously well. In fact, it has held up much better relative to the
[00:13:00.780 --> 00:13:05.980] Speaker 1: stock market as of recently, but Bitcoin is not immune. And so if inflation continues to
[00:13:05.980 --> 00:13:09.880] Speaker 1: run higher, and there's, you know, if there's no solution in the Middle East, and that
[00:13:09.880 --> 00:13:14.240] Speaker 1: continues to worsen, well, then Bitcoin will inevitably get hit. And there are a few levels
[00:13:14.240 --> 00:13:18.300] Speaker 1: that I'm watching within the yields, as well as the credit spreads. If you want to know
[00:13:18.300 --> 00:13:21.720] Speaker 1: exactly how I'm moving forward with this and how i'm going to prepare for this in case it
[00:13:21.720 --> 00:13:25.680] Speaker 1: does happen well then of course make sure you join my free telegram group i'm sure i will
[00:13:25.680 --> 00:13:30.140] Speaker 1: also end up talking about it on this channel if we do end up seeing that and so joining the
[00:13:30.140 --> 00:13:34.020] Speaker 1: group is of course entirely up to you but ladies and gentlemen you now know exactly what i
[00:13:34.020 --> 00:13:38.180] Speaker 1: believe about bitcoin what levels i'm watching where i'm long from and what signals i'm
[00:13:38.180 --> 00:13:43.200] Speaker 1: waiting for to confirm whether bitcoin is going much much higher or not so again i hope you
[00:13:43.200 --> 00:13:47.500] Speaker 1: enjoyed this video if you enjoy my content if you enjoy the analysis i I put a lot of hours
[00:13:47.500 --> 00:13:52.820] Speaker 1: into this. And what I do here is try and separate myself from the usual, very, very loud
[00:13:52.820 --> 00:13:56.820] Speaker 1: influencers that look at data that simply do not matter. I take my time with my research.
[00:13:56.900 --> 00:14:00.780] Speaker 1: I've studied macroeconomics for years and I applied within the crypto market. And if you
[00:14:00.780 --> 00:14:05.040] Speaker 1: enjoy this content, well then please like the video, subscribe to the channel, maybe even
[00:14:05.040 --> 00:14:08.840] Speaker 1: leave a comment. It would help me out a lot and it's entirely free. If not, well then
[00:14:08.840 --> 00:14:13.200] Speaker 1: that's okay. All you have to do to make me satisfied is show up in the next video.