1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:04,820 Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Peter Zion here coming to you from Colorado. It's a nice fall day. I figured 2 00:00:04,820 --> 00:00:09,180 Speaker 1: I'd get out and stretch the legs. Today we're going to talk about a new development in 3 00:00:09,180 --> 00:00:14,020 Speaker 1: Southeast Asia. It appears, I don't want to overplay it, but it appears that the Chinese 4 00:00:14,020 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: are laying the foundations for their first overseas base that they can actually supply 5 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:26,260 Speaker 1: without outside help. Keep in mind that they only have one until now and that one is in 6 00:00:26,260 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: Djibouti. It's part of the whole anti -pirate operation, but that is completely dependent 7 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: upon countries like Vietnam and India allowing their navy to operate 8 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: unfettered, and the United States even facilitating actively Chinese supply lines. They 9 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 1: just, they can't project power that far. The new one is in Laos, the country in Southeast 10 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 1: Asia. It's landlocked. It is, let's be kind, it's a failed state, and the only reason that 11 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:57,220 Speaker 1: it even gets talked about at all is because Chinese investment basically controls it. 12 00:00:57,620 --> 00:01:01,540 Speaker 1: Chinese security forces basically run the intelligence services. It is not an independent 13 00:01:01,540 --> 00:01:06,060 Speaker 1: power in any stretch of the imagination. It's much more under the Chinese thumb than, say, 14 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: Belarus is under Russia's thumb, for example. Anyway, it's landlocked. It's got Vietnam on 15 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:19,020 Speaker 1: one side, Thailand to the south, and Myanmar to the west. And so what it really has is 16 00:01:19,020 --> 00:01:23,860 Speaker 1: strategic position among countries that really matter now and will really matter in the 17 00:01:23,860 --> 00:01:28,780 Speaker 1: future. Because if you look forward 10, 20, 30 years, these three countries, Vietnam, 18 00:01:29,140 --> 00:01:35,140 Speaker 1: Thailand, and Laos, have a combination of industrial capacity and geographic potential, and 19 00:01:35,140 --> 00:01:38,860 Speaker 1: for the most part, a good demographic structure. So they're going to be major industrial 20 00:01:38,860 --> 00:01:45,500 Speaker 1: powers moving forward. Anyway, the new base is just south of 21 00:01:45,500 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: Viettian, which is the capital of Laos and it's basically hard up spitting distance of the 22 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: Thai border and with the airbase it seems to be under construction. Satellite photos have 23 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: shown a number of Chinese aircraft that have been there and not just overnight so it's not 24 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: an exercise. The Chinese would be able to project power really throughout land -based 25 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 1: Southeast Asia which is something that could be a problem for anyone in the area. Pros and 26 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:14,380 Speaker 1: cons from the Chinese point of view. Pros of course is the new reach that they have and 27 00:02:14,380 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: turning a client state into a military satrapy. Not a bad idea. Cons, the country that 28 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: this is on the border of is Thailand. And Thailand is arguably the most capable country in 29 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: the region from an economic and from a security point of view. So if you put an air base 30 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 1: hard on the border of a country that actually has, you know, a functional army, if you ever 31 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:41,660 Speaker 1: use that air base, you're going to be hating life in the not too distant future. Also keep 32 00:02:41,660 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 1: in mind that Thailand is not a normal country in many respects. It's not it's pro -american 33 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 1: although as a rule it is it's that thailand has a deep cultural 34 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:58,220 Speaker 1: muscle tone that isn't just part of the post -world war ii era even at the height of the 35 00:02:58,220 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: age of empires in the colonial age thailand was never fully colonized the core of it 36 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:10,460 Speaker 1: including right up to the border that this base is now on always remained under domestic 37 00:03:10,460 --> 00:03:16,780 Speaker 1: thai control so if the chinese were looking to pick a fight with someone who can fight 38 00:03:16,780 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 1: back, they picked well. And if they're looking to undermine a country, this is the one they 39 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: have to undermine. So one way or another, this is really colorful. And I don't think we're 40 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,740 Speaker 1: gonna have to wait more than a couple of years to see how Thailand and other countries 41 00:03:29,740 --> 00:03:31,260 Speaker 1: respond. That's it.