China Gets a New Base in Southeast Asia || Peter Zeihan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usc6AXAKNrM
Language: en | ASR: large-v3-turbo @ 0a363e9161cbc7ed1431c9597a8ceaf0c4f78fcf

[00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.820] Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Peter Zion here coming to you from Colorado. It's a nice fall day. I figured
[00:00:04.820 --> 00:00:09.180] Speaker 1: I'd get out and stretch the legs. Today we're going to talk about a new development in
[00:00:09.180 --> 00:00:14.020] Speaker 1: Southeast Asia. It appears, I don't want to overplay it, but it appears that the Chinese
[00:00:14.020 --> 00:00:20.880] Speaker 1: are laying the foundations for their first overseas base that they can actually supply
[00:00:20.880 --> 00:00:26.260] Speaker 1: without outside help. Keep in mind that they only have one until now and that one is in
[00:00:26.260 --> 00:00:30.360] Speaker 1: Djibouti. It's part of the whole anti -pirate operation, but that is completely dependent
[00:00:30.360 --> 00:00:36.680] Speaker 1: upon countries like Vietnam and India allowing their navy to operate
[00:00:36.680 --> 00:00:42.680] Speaker 1: unfettered, and the United States even facilitating actively Chinese supply lines. They
[00:00:42.680 --> 00:00:46.880] Speaker 1: just, they can't project power that far. The new one is in Laos, the country in Southeast
[00:00:46.880 --> 00:00:53.200] Speaker 1: Asia. It's landlocked. It is, let's be kind, it's a failed state, and the only reason that
[00:00:53.200 --> 00:00:57.220] Speaker 1: it even gets talked about at all is because Chinese investment basically controls it.
[00:00:57.620 --> 00:01:01.540] Speaker 1: Chinese security forces basically run the intelligence services. It is not an independent
[00:01:01.540 --> 00:01:06.060] Speaker 1: power in any stretch of the imagination. It's much more under the Chinese thumb than, say,
[00:01:07.880 --> 00:01:12.720] Speaker 1: Belarus is under Russia's thumb, for example. Anyway, it's landlocked. It's got Vietnam on
[00:01:12.720 --> 00:01:19.020] Speaker 1: one side, Thailand to the south, and Myanmar to the west. And so what it really has is
[00:01:19.020 --> 00:01:23.860] Speaker 1: strategic position among countries that really matter now and will really matter in the
[00:01:23.860 --> 00:01:28.780] Speaker 1: future. Because if you look forward 10, 20, 30 years, these three countries, Vietnam,
[00:01:29.140 --> 00:01:35.140] Speaker 1: Thailand, and Laos, have a combination of industrial capacity and geographic potential, and
[00:01:35.140 --> 00:01:38.860] Speaker 1: for the most part, a good demographic structure. So they're going to be major industrial
[00:01:38.860 --> 00:01:45.500] Speaker 1: powers moving forward. Anyway, the new base is just south of
[00:01:45.500 --> 00:01:51.640] Speaker 1: Viettian, which is the capital of Laos and it's basically hard up spitting distance of the
[00:01:51.640 --> 00:01:57.960] Speaker 1: Thai border and with the airbase it seems to be under construction. Satellite photos have
[00:01:57.960 --> 00:02:00.960] Speaker 1: shown a number of Chinese aircraft that have been there and not just overnight so it's not
[00:02:00.960 --> 00:02:05.320] Speaker 1: an exercise. The Chinese would be able to project power really throughout land -based
[00:02:05.320 --> 00:02:10.560] Speaker 1: Southeast Asia which is something that could be a problem for anyone in the area. Pros and
[00:02:10.560 --> 00:02:14.380] Speaker 1: cons from the Chinese point of view. Pros of course is the new reach that they have and
[00:02:14.380 --> 00:02:21.280] Speaker 1: turning a client state into a military satrapy. Not a bad idea. Cons, the country that
[00:02:21.280 --> 00:02:28.280] Speaker 1: this is on the border of is Thailand. And Thailand is arguably the most capable country in
[00:02:28.280 --> 00:02:33.320] Speaker 1: the region from an economic and from a security point of view. So if you put an air base
[00:02:33.320 --> 00:02:37.240] Speaker 1: hard on the border of a country that actually has, you know, a functional army, if you ever
[00:02:37.240 --> 00:02:41.660] Speaker 1: use that air base, you're going to be hating life in the not too distant future. Also keep
[00:02:41.660 --> 00:02:46.280] Speaker 1: in mind that Thailand is not a normal country in many respects. It's not it's pro -american
[00:02:46.280 --> 00:02:52.880] Speaker 1: although as a rule it is it's that thailand has a deep cultural
[00:02:52.880 --> 00:02:58.220] Speaker 1: muscle tone that isn't just part of the post -world war ii era even at the height of the
[00:02:58.220 --> 00:03:04.960] Speaker 1: age of empires in the colonial age thailand was never fully colonized the core of it
[00:03:04.960 --> 00:03:10.460] Speaker 1: including right up to the border that this base is now on always remained under domestic
[00:03:10.460 --> 00:03:16.780] Speaker 1: thai control so if the chinese were looking to pick a fight with someone who can fight
[00:03:16.780 --> 00:03:22.000] Speaker 1: back, they picked well. And if they're looking to undermine a country, this is the one they
[00:03:22.000 --> 00:03:27.120] Speaker 1: have to undermine. So one way or another, this is really colorful. And I don't think we're
[00:03:27.120 --> 00:03:29.740] Speaker 1: gonna have to wait more than a couple of years to see how Thailand and other countries
[00:03:29.740 --> 00:03:31.260] Speaker 1: respond. That's it.