1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:04,660 Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Peter Zion here, coming to you from a warm Colorado autumn afternoon. Today 2 00:00:04,660 --> 00:00:10,140 Speaker 1: we're taking a question from the Patreon crowd, specifically, is the United States about to 3 00:00:10,140 --> 00:00:15,140 Speaker 1: get sucked into a fresh war in the Middle East in Yemen? And if so, is that something we 4 00:00:15,140 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: want? 5 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:22,040 Speaker 1: Yemen is a mountainous country in the southwestern extremity of the Arabian Peninsula, and 6 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: like all mountainous areas that get enough rain to have a population, that population tends 7 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: to be a little ornery. uh so basically think of it as chechnya or scotland or west virginia 8 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 1: just warmer 9 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:35,280 UNKNOWN: uh 10 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: and it has rebelled against whatever the order has happened to be in the region um jeez at 11 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 1: least since the time of the late egyptian pharaoh so at least 3 000 years ago uh it's been 12 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 1: a problem for everyone who's been the major power in that area and so this is no no 13 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:59,260 Speaker 1: surprise uh that also gives you an idea of how durable the rebellion can be uh let's talk 14 00:00:59,260 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: about the strategic picture in yemen and then we'll talk about what we're up against now so 15 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 1: strategic picture is that these people live in the mountains uh they've got well so they 16 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: have enough water for what they need to do and they have a cash crop in something called 17 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 1: kat which is water intensive and is drying the country out and it's basically a mild 18 00:01:19,320 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: narcotic so everyone in yemen is stoned a lot um but the people who are in charge the ones 19 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:30,320 Speaker 1: that are problematic. The Houthis have enough territory that even if you have a collapse of 20 00:01:30,320 --> 00:01:34,380 Speaker 1: the water table, it's really not a problem. What we've seen in recent weeks is they've 21 00:01:34,380 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 1: taken over a lot of the coastal territory, which a lot of people are like, oh, no, this is 22 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 1: bad because they could threaten the strait. But they were threatening the strait before. 23 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 1: They're using primarily missiles and drones that are wholly provided by the Iranians. Yemen 24 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:52,340 Speaker 1: has no indigenous manufacturing capacity itself. So it's basically just assembling kits 25 00:01:52,340 --> 00:01:57,420 Speaker 1: under Iranian direction. And that means you're talking about weapon systems that have a 26 00:01:57,420 --> 00:02:00,980 Speaker 1: range of over a hundred miles, they don't need the coast to fire. I mean, yes, they could 27 00:02:00,980 --> 00:02:04,300 Speaker 1: have people that can go and see, but you don't actually have to have physical control of 28 00:02:04,300 --> 00:02:07,700 Speaker 1: the entire coast to do that. You just need one guy with a pair of binoculars and then, you 29 00:02:07,700 --> 00:02:13,980 Speaker 1: know, maybe, uh, look at the satellite feed. So if you went in and kicked the Houthis out 30 00:02:13,980 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: of the coast, it really doesn't change the picture. You would actually have to go into the 31 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:23,660 Speaker 1: interior, into the mountains and fight. Uh, which means that if your goal is to 32 00:02:23,660 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: root out this specific problem, you have to invade a country with, you know, 30 million 33 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:35,140 Speaker 1: people, I believe it has, and occupy enough of it that it can't be 34 00:02:35,140 --> 00:02:41,860 Speaker 1: used as a base of operations for forces like this. That means you're combining 35 00:02:41,860 --> 00:02:47,580 Speaker 1: kind of the worst case scenarios of Afghanistan and Iraq into a single fund fight. Now, 36 00:02:47,620 --> 00:02:50,060 Speaker 1: raise your hand if you want to go back into those two countries. 37 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:50,960 UNKNOWN: It's 38 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 1: basically what we're looking at here. It's just that Yemen, unlike Iraq, doesn't even have 39 00:02:55,640 --> 00:03:00,060 Speaker 1: decent infrastructure that U .S. forces could operate from, and it has all of the twisting 40 00:03:00,060 --> 00:03:05,260 Speaker 1: and turning supply chain problems because of mountain roads that Afghanistan had. So, you 41 00:03:05,260 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: know, no fun at all. 42 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:15,920 Speaker 1: In addition, Yemen threatening Gulf infrastructure, Gulf shipments, and 43 00:03:15,920 --> 00:03:20,780 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, if you remove it from the equation completely, you haven't solved any of the 44 00:03:20,780 --> 00:03:25,820 Speaker 1: problem. Keep in mind that these weapon systems that the Iranians are sharing have a range 45 00:03:25,820 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 1: of about 600 miles, and they're pretty basic. You could see that expanded in the future, 46 00:03:30,220 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: but 600 is plenty. And if you look at the attacks that have happened elsewhere in the 47 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:38,620 Speaker 1: region, as we know from the war with the United States in February, March, April, and May, 48 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:43,500 Speaker 1: the Iranians can already hit everything in the region. And as was underlined just last 49 00:03:43,500 --> 00:03:49,060 Speaker 1: month, the Iranians still have influence in southern Iraq. And so recently there was a 50 00:03:49,060 --> 00:03:55,380 Speaker 1: drone and missile attack on what's called the East -West Pipeline, which takes Saudi 51 00:03:55,380 --> 00:04:02,100 Speaker 1: Arabian crude from the Persian Gulf across Arabia and into the Red Sea. 52 00:04:02,540 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: Anyway, an attack from Iraq is the one that damaged it and took it offline for a couple 53 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: weeks. So even if you take Yemen out of the equation, you would then, if you really want to 54 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:19,540 Speaker 1: secure the area, have to go and do the same thing for Iraq again. And even that wouldn't 55 00:04:19,540 --> 00:04:23,340 Speaker 1: fix things because these weapons have more than enough range that can be operated from Iran 56 00:04:23,340 --> 00:04:29,900 Speaker 1: direct during the war. On multiple occasions, the Iranians hit sites on the Saudi coast of 57 00:04:29,900 --> 00:04:34,220 Speaker 1: the Red Sea. So all of this is in range from multiple places. So you're really talking 58 00:04:34,220 --> 00:04:38,900 Speaker 1: about doing something that's significantly more involved than what we did on the global war 59 00:04:38,900 --> 00:04:45,820 Speaker 1: and terror and having to physically occupy Yemen and Iraq and Iran 60 00:04:45,820 --> 00:04:52,020 Speaker 1: all at the same time. So no, I can't say that is something that I would recommend. 61 00:04:52,840 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 1: The flip side, of course, is if the U .S. doesn't do something like this, then there is no 62 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:05,340 Speaker 1: military solution whatsoever to secure Persian Gulf energy. You basically 63 00:05:05,340 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 1: have a really ugly choice to make. You make a political deal with Iran that allows the oil 64 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:17,420 Speaker 1: to flow. And that means giving Iran a whole lot of things that it wants that the United 65 00:05:17,420 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: States has been fighting to not give it since the revolution back in 1979. Or you walk away 66 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 1: and just realize that the Middle East, you can't do anything with it. You can't control it. 67 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:34,100 Speaker 1: You can barely influence it. And the crude isn't going to flow unless the Iranians cut 68 00:05:34,100 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 1: deals then with individual powers in the area. So it's an ugly, ugly, ugly situation. And 69 00:05:39,280 --> 00:05:42,860 Speaker 1: Yemen just underlines just how ugly.