Speaker 1: let's talk about the story let's go fast all the questions come from patreon first questions from joe one joe one is very interested in the so -called buy borrow die strategy first and foremost thank you for you and your team for all you do it's been life -changing for me so i know you always talk about rotation of assets however i'm a firm believer in a wealth asset strategy of buy borrow die to where you never sell your assets you simply borrow against them to buy more assets what would your advice be to someone like me who strongly believes in that strategy but also takes your advice extremely seriously as far as rotation so i never have to sell my assets and endure huge tax ramifications thank you so much again obviously not financial advice so quick recap on what buy borrow die is my friends in case you didn't know the core idea is you buy something for example in this simple example you buy fifty thousand dollars worth of equity and by the way there are people who put ten thousand dollars into things like home depot 40 years ago and made millions so it's theoretically possible um and then your fit your 50k turns into a few million dollars two million bucks and then after that you can put in a trust in your own name or a revocable trust under depending on your current law and where you are and your kids when they you you live off what you borrow from your assets you still have to pay that back of course or you can just borrow a little bit and as the assets grow it becomes a smaller and smaller percentage so it doesn't really matter and then uh heaven forbid something bad happens but then your kids get your trust and there's no tax on that trust depending on your situation and your stay so your kids can inherit the two million basis there's also stories right now where you could have a big bag of some stock in your schwab account and you can borrow against that you can actually buy real estate with it but remember don't ever get a margin call don't get liquidated or you lose everything so make sure you've got oodles and oodles of margin but so many things are now possible and there'll be even more stuff possible in the future so that's the buy borrow die concept now it works very well in some circumstances but not in others uh hang on am i missing a slide here yeah so for example it can work very well on one condition if you are holding an asset forever it needs to be a very very strong compounder okay you borrow against strength and time is your friend so the amount you borrow actually becomes very insignificant but if you borrow against weakness time is your enemy that's the big problem and never selling is not a strategy in my opinion because everything runs out of steam for the most part unless you are extremely lucky so let's look at what i call the up only compounders this is the list of the best performing stocks and i know people will say oh tesla is not good performing but you remember these are the best performing stocks these are the best kagers but tesla is very young and it's done an awful lot in a very short window of time of 15 years nvidia 28 years the kager is less than tesla despite the fact that tesla hasn't had a great last couple of years that's a separate issue. But all of these are winning names. And you can see all of these cool stocks, Tesla, Nvidia, Netflix, Microsoft, Oracle, Home Depot. If you held Home Depot for 47 years, you made an annual CAGR of 22 .5%, literally 1 .38 million percent return. Cisco, 35 years. But Cisco didn't do anything for like 20 years. Walmart didn't do anything for 12 years. So you get these big flat parts. Adobe, you could argue, is cannibalized. It's going to get itself cannibalized by ai and apple kind of a little bit running out of steam too starbucks also a little bit running out of steam best buy zombie box retailer perhaps costco that's a good one 16 kagger nike we all saw what happened to nike toast fedex so if you take this list you'll see very quickly yes you could have made great money by holding for a long time but there comes a time with every train that you need to step off it's very rare they go up forever and then you rotate into what the next big thing is going to be but you need to get in early that's the miracle and remember if you're holding long -term capital gains taxes is 20 it's worth taking that hit always worth taking that hit too and this is the danger of holding the losers got to be very careful because again a loser does not just cost you the drop in price but it traps your capital that could be compounding somewhere else you know for example crypto has seasons ai has seasons you know telco back in the day had seasons social like facebook etc had seasons amazon had seasons again this is why you do need to rotate and rotation rotation is not only selling when it's early you could just sell part of your bag, not the whole thing. But firing losers so that the winners get more capital is key. Dead money plus leverage is how you blow up a portfolio. So don't do that. Don't do that ever. So there are times and places to buy, borrow, and die, but rotation is still very important. Now, it can work, but you need to be in those incredible companies. Think, as part of my video years ago, the 0 .3 % of stocks. But still, even with that, nothing lasts forever. The rule is simple, hold quality, but rotate out of anything that becomes a broken thesis, or something gets disrupted, etc. And review the thesis, don't worry about the tax bill, you never go broke paying taxes or profits, but you're better off moving. Like imagine you've got a million dollars in one asset, and the thesis is changing, it's about to be completely cannibalized and it's half its value. you shouldn't sweat paying 20 % on that and rotating into something that's going to 10x over the next five or 10 years that's going to be the key and of course i'm not a tax professional and taxes are very local jurisdiction specific so check that as well but don't ever ever hold on to a dog because you're afraid of paying taxes that is dangerous very dangerous all right next question which ties into the first question which is from dumb money asks i would like to rotate half of my micro strategy due to dilution into spacex what would be a good time to do so and do i wait for bitcoin to cross before 100k before i do this a lot of good questions here but let's let's take a step back and look at the two different assets and where we're actually going because that's the most important thing timing it's looking at the pair will come kind of later first of all this is the micro strategy wall street upside target 66 from here that takes us to an average price at 227 from the price we're currently at not bad spacex less upside but i also believe spacex is less understood by wall street it's a very complex company to understand and we're going to go through a lot of spacex stuff today as well but the upside is only 49 versus 66 here or so less less however the other thing you need to look at when you're trading microstrategy is you have to look at the price based on mnav mnav multiple and of course the bitcoin price and then take into account dilution assets on the balance sheet and i don't agree with all they're doing with strc they're diluting us to buy more strc to try get it back to 100 to try get the flywheel going again i don't think the flywheel is going to go again maybe it will now that they're moving to daily dividends in november but i'm not sure but when i share these price targets too people go oh gasp but bitcoin's going to a million dollars we don't know where bitcoin's going and i always sandbag stuff in fact my third video ever i said micro strategy will go to $1 ,200 by 2030. And that was a 10 year out target. Okay, we didn't go to $1 ,200. We actually went to $5 ,400 way earlier, like years ago. So that's how I sandbag things. But I'd rather sandbag things to be cautious so people can build plans. So here, my bull target for Bitcoin, if you assume it's 130k, you got microstrategy at an m nav of one that would take us maybe to 270 274 230 depending on exactly how much dilution there is going forward if you get to a nav premium 1 .5 it becomes 400 bucks at 130k that's the difference if we get a euphoric time where bitcoin's going to the moon scarcity supply crunch hits everyone wants a bit of bitcoin because they have so much money from ai and they want to diversify that could happen we could go to 200k if we go to 200k now i have premium of one microstrategy go to 420 bucks so that's the story but it's it's based on many many different things now spacex this is my 2028 spacex target which i shared with aaron burnett a while and this is a 3 .6x from here and this assumes they start building out compute like crazy okay it assumes they dominate the hyperscalers and neoscalers and get to over 10 gigawatts of coherent compute by the year end 2027 that is the assumption behind this and if that's the case guess what yeah spacex is a faster horse safer horse too by 2030 it could be 902 bucks a 6 .18x also assuming they get gigawatts of space -based data centers up there in space so that's what these things are based on now to conclude the verdict between these two different assets they're very different assets okay if you're looking through 2028 and you're looking at probability risk -based basis, I would pick SpaceX as compounding. And by the way, I speak with my allocations, which I share every single Tuesday. Okay, I put my money where my mouth is, always. The median case, for example, at 3 .61x on microstrategy needs two things to go right at the same time. Bitcoin, maybe 265k or higher, and the MNAV, maybe 1 .5. So again, it's tricky. But if either one of those fails, it trails badly. And the ATM dilution is a killer. That works against you on the way up. Therefore, I would say SpaceX is a better deal. But right now, Microsoft is getting hit because the MCSI news, etc. Bitcoin is a little bit weak as well. It's just so many variables, so much risk. I prefer sure things. I believe SpaceX will be a better compounder from here on out through 2030. But again, SpaceX is also very risky if they can't get new power, can't build data centers, can't get Starship to be reusable, can't get data centers in space, you're cooked. But the reward is worth it. The risk is high, but also the upside is huge if they get it right. Anyway, we'll talk more about SpaceX right now, too. This is from Sergeant X. Am I the only person with zero micron? I've been hyper -focused, maybe too much stacking SpaceX, Tesla, Marvel, NVIDIA. All good names, by the way, even though Tesla has not performed in the last two years. But again, we're on the cusp of something big. As Elon said, you don't want to sell your Tesla stock. So he wouldn't say that and lie to us. Anyhow, like the others, it feels a bit like chasing Micron at this stage because of its rapid rise. And the 189 % return year -to -date sounds nice, but other players have greater targets, no? tesla four digits etc tesla the tesla is now a function of spacex we'll get to that in a second too like many hard not to question especially if the cost basis allows for example trim tesla 20 i'd still have my retire on bag and buy a micron at a thousand want to maintain my high conviction lean portfolio few assets in my case i trade straight equity will be in a solo 401k account tax -free so you can rotate as well so that's an option again this is this is actually pretty incredible so i put together my combination assumption my merge spacex and tesla and my base case for the market cap of that combined entity is 10 .32 trillion dollars and micron is 3 .1 trillion dollars so the upside between micron and spacex is almost identical 308 percent on spacex versus tesla combined versus 310 percent for micron this was completely bizarre and the results shocked me so that means it's kind of like a dead heat between both assets very unusual now the other thing that's happening too we can't talk about spacex in isolation anymore because the merger is going to happen here are the odds 29 by year end if you ask people like peter diamantes he thinks it's in the bag year end is going to happen by year end 2027 65 chance i think definitely by year end 2027 they will be one entity no doubt in my mind but the key is where is the puck going to be so we have a couple of things happening we have crazy stuff this is all big part of spacex is their compute big part of tesla is cybercabs and optimus that's it that's the whole bowl of wax where the compute comes from okay and building compute is getting harder and harder and more expensive etc from switchgear to transformers to power to cooling to generators megapacks whatever it keeps on going up and that's the big problem but there's only one guy that can build these things fast now these are my projections of the cost of building a gigawatt of compute next year year after etc currently is 50 billion next year be 58 billion maybe as high as 72 depending on constraints for example memory if you can even get your hands on memory that's the problem there's so many bottlenecks and constraints nobody can get this done but Elon had the foresight to lock in supply for memory for vera ruben gpus for power he's building his own turbines because he can't get his hands on them 2028 62 billion to build a gigawatt 2030 65 billion and maybe 2032 68 billion these numbers are crazy but they could be a lot higher and that's the wild card nobody else can build at these scales and i've shared a whole bunch of posts this weekend from andrew jesse for example at amazon they don't see any way they can get access to anything until maybe year -end 2028 everybody's tapped out google's tapped out amazon's tapped out microsoft's probably tapped out there's only one guy that has the compute and this could be a real treasure for spacex this is oh this is the anti -jesse i have a slide on this this like we're basically out of everything until 2028 late 2028 beyond 2028 even so again this is not like the internet .com bubble this is very different because the demand is off the hook everybody needs compute but you can't build it fast enough therefore we are setting up for a huge bottleneck therefore i'm extremely bullish in spacex and the other thing that makes me extremely bullish in spacex are the only game in town and the whole planet that could put data centers in space and people say oh that's impossible can't happen they have 11 000 satellites up there already which run their own solar cooling they got chips in them they just need to do it in a slightly bigger scale okay so they'll be able to get a gigawatt to orbit with between 100 and 175 flights which is a lot of tonnage to orbit and they need to deploy a whole bunch of satellites a1 class satellites how long it takes them to get a gigawatt out there i don't know but they seem to hope to be able to get some of it up there next year this is going to be very important for the story too if it fails or it slips it will ding the stock that's the reality of where we are so what do you do where do you rotate micron or spacex if spacex can execute and spacex becomes tesla and spacex become one company that's where i believe the real compounding will happen with the most incredible synergy and nobody else has what they're doing and nobody else is building what they're doing as well at the same time so let's get more into this quick question from lummox hey james please give us your take on roadster reveal is it a toy concept car or is there a way to generate revenue here appreciate all the iit members who first of all a lot of people are saying oh there's there's no way that'll be street legal not going to happen And, well, the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, said, we will make sure Tesla's flying roadster is street legal in Florida. Florida wins again. Anyway, shout out to anybody in Florida if they're here. Also, the bad, my takeaway from the bad from the roadster reveal, the flying version is infight only. It'll be for people with their own tracks or compounds or whatever. And, of course, a flying car won't be road legal, at least not for a decade plus, in my opinion. and elon admits it's not optimized for safety and it won't be ready till 2028 they're all the dings and it will not be a needle mover for revenue at all but it is a brand mover that's the whole thing it gets the attention of the minds and the ultra billionaires and the super rich and middle east and other places will want one of these things plus the track version looks incredible especially with that suction anyway the good news uh a big part of it i believe is kind of like a tesla spacex merger roadshow a lot of hints coming out from elon musk etc he's talking about tesla x spacex you know the combo it does defy physics it's definitely the most amazing product demo i've ever seen in my life and i want to test it myself on the norwich life if you know what that is this year to 60 would probably smash my organs on my spine but anyway it's fun real value suction downforce and thruster last manually driven car which is also great to see because their future their future is optimus and cybercabs not this thing but it does grab attention a lot of attention also triggers a lot of people so that's kind of the good and the bad of the whole thing that i see but the big big lesson is and elon said it himself in a tweet a few hours ago he said optimus and cyber cap will be the vast majority of tesla value and they will scale to incredible size kardashiev too and beyond but of course you have to have the first two for the rest to follow he said the roadster is super cool and that's why they're doing it because it's super cool and it also wins the hearts and minds of engineers and attracts engineers to tesla and spacex so they can build cool stuff like this as well anyhow um that's the way i see it next question is from tx ronin and this is a crypto question it's good to see crypto questions back we've seen solana dominates ai agents today but looking a few years out sui's object central centric model and new native quantum safe milestones seem to offer a much safer, horizontally scalable architecture for autonomous AI treasuries. As investors hunting for asymmetric upside, do you see this quantum AI synergy as a true fundamental paradigm shift? If so, what is your playbook for rotation strategy? A lot of rotation talk today. Specifically, if we do not have the capital to deploy, should we rotate and accumulate sui now while it's building the tech or wait two to three years to capture some solid upside until the quantum threat is closer and the AI agent migration actually begins. Let's have a look at all the data. First of all, you're right, Solana does dominate AI agent transactions. It runs, I think, 76 % of them, X402. And Sui's facilitator is still on the test net. It's not even out. Sui's problem also is not technology, it's adoption. I always talk about adoption and distribution and the attraction of dApps, etc. But users, there's not much user adoption, not much stablecoin adoption, not much liquidity and TVL, etc. And wallets and revenue generating apps are also kind of missing, despite all the pumpers. Let's have a look at some real data. okay let's look at uh daily transactions um for both chains so suede is 9 million salon does 146 million that's 1500 percent more daily active users suede is 120 000 salon has over 5 million 5 .2 million daily fees 2 800 bucks versus 624k 24 hour period 22 000 percent more that's just one part of it the other part is sui versus solid tvl tvl is 1100 percent more 492 million versus 6 billion dex volume 16 million versus 10 billion stablecoin market cap 589 million versus 16 .4 billion again not even in the same universe we're talking 1100 better 58 ,500 % better, 2 ,700 % better. It's just different. Now, other thing as well, there's some little headwinds here, which may catch you by surprise. And you seem to realize some of this as well. But the trend is going the wrong way for Sui. First of all, TVL collapse. Sui's TVL has fallen from nearly $3 billion a year ago to half a billion today. Why? What happened? Also, wallet support. Phantom dropped Sui wallet support. Phantom was a huge avenue. And in fact, when I heard that announcement, I said, this is going to be great for Sui and other players. Anyway, Phantom dropped it because there's no usage. There's no money, there's no fun. And then there's some developer friction as well. Sui uses the Move language, so developers can't just copy their EVM apps across. And these are three very distinct headwinds that are causing a bit of a pain. Also, let's talk about the reality versus talk. A lot of times after the annual show for SUI, a lot of talk. First of all, quantum safe, it's a roadmap race, but there's no need to be worried about quantum for now. It's not a shipped advantage. So for example, SUI on DevNet mainnet Q1 2027, Solana shipped opt -in resistant vault already, AI agents, Solana handles 76 % of them. Sui Faciliteria is still in test, so it's not actually live yet. And then Finality is the product for AI agents. I've covered this a thousand times. Sui is 390 milliseconds. Solana is targeting 150 milliseconds. In, let me see, three days. Three days it goes live. So Alpenglow goes live. And most importantly, too, this goes back to kind of adoption and liquidity and revenue and usage. Remember, I always think of a blockchain like a shopping mall. You have your anchor stores and you have all of your dApps and that attracts the customers. And then there's cross -pollination between all of these different stores. People go into the mall to get, I don't know, a coffee and then they end up buying something from another place. That is the value, okay?

UNKNOWN: Now,

Speaker 1: your thought of AI agents choosing a chain because it's quantum safe? The truth is, AI agents don't give a rat's ass. They don't care, okay? They want finality. They want liquidity. They want to be on a loop. They want to do this hundreds of times a day. And that's what they care about, not the quantum safety. They want things to be reliable as well. That's the key. So again, don't pin your hopes and dreams to all this quantum talk. For years, I've been saying quantum is way, way, way. Ignore it for now. Be far more concerned with AI and that adoption. So hope that helps. Next question is from Mr. Burns. Interesting one as well, because I hinted at this in my video with Joe Bakhti. By the way, Joe Bakhti is back on the show next Friday, same time, 10 a .m. Pacific, I think 7 Central European time. This is from Mr. Burns. Mr. Burns wants to know if the idea that meta, open AI, anthropic, et cetera, were to naturally shift to the biotech space, would it change my opinion and ownership of neither of the frontier labs, open AI or anthropic? everything else aside if they were the gatekeepers to most of all massive health breakthroughs they could sell to big pharma reef massive profits from you name it cures for cancer etc etc as they go forward so this is a a very very big topic and i did hint on this before in a previous video and i do believe i do believe they're thinking about this so for example some anecdotal bread crumbs that i have one anthropic has already set up a wet lab in san francisco and they're looking into leveraging their ai capabilities to identify new drug capabilities also it's rumored that open ai have already started investing in version 6 and version 7 of their product but they are putting 70 to 80 percent of their compute into this version 6 and version 7 so they can in turn build stuff for themselves what that is we don't know but it's not really designed for the public market you know if you've got all this great super intelligence why not keep it for yourself rather than sharing it with the world you know don't give away your super intelligence to big pharma that can build their own drugs when you can do it yourself i definitely think that's happening i see all the breadcrumbs that point in that direction also what's bigger than ai glp1 weight loss drugs make more money that's hard to believe but it's true now how will this play out i'm not sure but a couple of things i do believe could happen one uh i do believe uh medical breakthroughs are a top priority for the labs not only because of all this ai safety kind of garbage over the last few weeks or months but if for example ai cures cancer. Can you imagine how good that is for the PR, for AI? Absolutely massive. And they are doing a lot of investing in this area. And OpenAI is talking about things like building 50x improvements in stem cell markers as well, which is critical to curing of any complex cancers too. And the prize is enormous. The current big pharma market's $2 .3 trillion. Now, can you imagine if you crack longevity you can make people live 10 years longer how much would a billionaire pay to live 10 years longer the answer is billions um how much would people pay to cure their cancer or whatever ailment they have trillions billions i mean the market's huge and the ai labs know this they may not be able to make it up on 20 a month subscriptions but if they have a breakthrough it's a very quick way to huge money. Now, the other angle of this as well, and I do know enough about the big pharma biotech industry to be dangerous, but I don't think the air labs want to become drug owners. I think they want to be able to identify the breakthrough and then sell that to the Salofis, the Novo Nordics, the Genentex, whatever, the Pfizer's of the world, and sell them the IP. I don't think they're going to be running pipelines and human trials and all that type of stuff or dealing with the FDA. Too much high headache. So my thoughts is, yes, they will use their compute to discover new breakthroughs. And then they'll license those breakthroughs to big pharma so they can handle all the nitty gritty stuff. That takes years as well. FDA approval, human trials, et cetera. But they'll take the upfronts and all the royalties in advance. And that'll avoid spending years wasting time dealing with government agencies and tests, et cetera. So I think they're definitely doing it. And I think this is how they would play it. This is what I would do if I was them. Identify the breakthrough, sell it. Identify another one, sell it. And the good news is, there's going to be so many medical breakthroughs over the next three to five years, it's going to be mind -blowing. And that should give everybody a very positive view of AI. Of course, there will be some negatives of AI, Things like maybe bank accounts will be hacked or government agencies are already being hacked. We just saw the Danish government lost all their citizens' information. We know the French government is looking to capture all citizen information about how much Bitcoin, crypto they have. Can you imagine the honeypot? Imagine how easy it is to break into a government entity. These are the downsides, but the upsides are also heavy. So, hope that helps. And this week as well, we donated to Chaba, Chaba the baby elephant. and this is a favorite part of the week as well before we get into the live q a we are investing in save the elephant in thailand program to help care food and shelter and medical needs for the animals there and that's shabba the baby elephant her and her mom had a very hard life in an elephant show and riding camp but now they're in a sanctuary where they can shine and have a good time so big thank you we love our elephants and i hope you all learned something let's get some live questions sorry about that audio screw up at the beginning but that's what i'm best at screwing up audio we're back on the edge browser which i've never used for anything else but this all right let's get into the live question and thanks again to the mods in the chat uh bryce assets if you weren't good at options and are a long hold investor had half of your personal wealth and pure bitcoin and cold storage wallets would you one keep them there where they are or two take the tax hit and turn some or all into etfs or i 13 so bryce we now live in a world where you can deposit your bitcoin from your cold storage wallet to a company like fidelity or other people and they will custody it for you no fees then because you're not selling you don't incur taxes and at those places you can also borrow against your bitcoin so we've come we've come to the stage of bitcoin maturity where things are actually great and schwab also announced this week they're going to do the same thing that you'll be able to send your bitcoin into their custody accounts um and that's what i did by the way i sent mine into fidelity so not financial advice i hope they well they'll definitely have better security than i would but uh i i hope that helps um what you could do as well if your long -term capital gains you know don't worry about that 20 or whatever you got to pay um i do believe there are faster horses than bitcoin unless of course we get the supply crunch and everything goes to the moon that's also theoretically possible but i don't know i do think we're in the diminishing returns phase of bitcoin the good old glory days of the 21x's are probably over unless of course we get the supply crunch i don't know there's just so much so many new shiny toys out there in the market to invest in uh buckhorn thank you james for all that you do uh both bought broadcom in the last dip and what would be the expected kegger and the retire for the retire on model i have my excuse me i gotta dig dig up my my broadcom target if i can find them hang on a second um 13 price targets yes i haven't i haven't punched it to i haven't done a retire on for broadcom but uh my bull target for 2030 is 1300 and that's a 6 .3 x from here so that's a print that's the second 6 .6 .1 x 6 .2 x 6 .3 x so far today uh so that's where i see it going the custom chip market's massive and they're a huge player along with amd so i and they've done a lot of really big deals now the bear target on the other side is about 550 so depending on where we go i think you easily get to 550 but anyway that's the target for that in terms of broadcom is one of those areas was my smallest i13 allocation and we got back then that big dip last week i thought it was good we could get more red next week and then we'll see we'll see if we double down even more as well uh row one one hi james Last week, Q &A, you put Broadcom, A -Lab, Marvel in the top tier. Which of these do you think 3X is first from here? Marvel, maybe A -Lab. I just went through the Broadcom. So I think Marvel is currently a $200 billion company. It's going to get to a trillion. I don't know when. Actually, let me check now that I have it here. Marvel could go as high as $1 ,500. That is my bull target for 2030. And that would be a very, very juicy CAGR of 71 .34%. By the way, the CAGR on Broadcom is about 40 % from here. So Marvel is one of my high flyers, but also don't discount the big Musk industry one as well. But either way, AI is not slowing down. The names are fantastic. And things like connectivity is extremely important in data centers. and marvel are doing some of the best work there too so roe and buckhorn and bryce i hope that helps um a big thank you to dbf of course piper dbf again hello you kayla b -man roe signal 103 nalem appreciate you all and of course sean d tnd cypher sniper k8 have a good evening we did that in 40 minutes. That's excellent. Including sound interruption at the beginning. Alright, goodnight everybody. See you tomorrow. Bye.