Speaker 1: The company holding 4 % of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist is getting thrown out of one of the biggest families of stock indexes on the planet. It's set to trigger billions of dollars worth of forced selling, and the clock is already ticking. In 43 days, at the closing bell on November 30th, every fund tracking MSCI's global stock indexes has to sell Michael Saylor's strategy, up to $2 .8 billion of it. Half of financial media is calling this the start of another Black Monday, and ironically enough, tomorrow is the anniversary of Black Monday, the worst day in stock market history. Saylor went on Bloomberg TV and said that the money involved is too small to matter. I think both camps are reading this completely wrong. The crash camp is missing that this forces zero Bitcoin onto the market, but the too small to matter crowd is missing two things. The timing of the sale and the dangerous precedent it hands every other stock index committee, including the one that runs the S &P 500. And this matters to you whether you own Bitcoin, whether you own MSTR, or you've never touched either one. Because the funds being forced to sell are the same index funds sitting inside most 401ks in America. Strategy stock fell almost 10 % on Friday on the news, and Bitcoin fell about 1%. And this morning, Saylor signaled that he's buying more Bitcoin anyway. Bitcoin is sitting at about $81 ,000 right now. So by the end of this video, you're going to know exactly how big this force selling really is and why Bitcoin barely flinched, the enormous wave of Wall Street money being built to hit Bitcoin that makes this force $2. billion sale look like a rounding error and what all of this means for the price of your Bitcoin. And stick around at the very end because I'm going to show you why $100 ,000 won't be the wall that it was last cycle, why Bitcoin is slated to blow straight through it, and the math on why this bull run could be the biggest dollar move that Bitcoin has ever made. Let's get into it. So there are two things I want you to hold in your head for the rest of this video. The first is a moment, the closing bell on November 30th. And the second is a number. It tells you whether the biggest corporate buyer of Bitcoin on earth keeps buying through all of this. And right now, it's sitting around one. We're coming back to both of those. So here's how we got here in the first place. On October 15th, after the market closed, MSCI locked in rules that put strategy on track to get removed from its stock indexes. On November 11th, 24 days from now, it publishes the final list, and at the close on November 30th, the cut takes effect, and every fund that tracks those indexes has to sell. MSCI builds the world and international indexes that trillions of dollars of index fund money follow. It created a brand new category called non -operating companies, meaning businesses that mainly hold assets instead of running an operation, and when it tested companies against that rule, three of them failed. Strategy, the biggest by far, MetaPlanet, Japan's version of Strategy, and a company called Yellow Cake that just holds physical uranium. The test never mentions Bitcoin explicitly, but it catches anyone who holds an asset and basically sits on it. Saylor went straight at the logic. He said MSCI counts oil, natural gas, land, and machinery as capital. And in his words, refusing to do the same for Bitcoin is a value judgment, with MSCI acting like an unregistered financial advisor. And that's why this matters far past just one stock. Strategy already got passed over for the S &P 500 once last year. If the biggest index provider in the world now says that Bitcoin on a balance sheet doesn't count as running a business, every other committee gets cover to say the exact same thing. JP Morgan puts another $8 .8 billion of selling at risk if they do. So let's take this in three parts. The selling, the money coming in and what it actually means for the price of Bitcoin. So starting with part one, the selling, because this is the number scaring people. Funds tracking MSCI's indexes hold about 3 .1 % of strategy shares, roughly 13 million of them. Estimates for what they'll have to dump run from about $1 .9 billion up to JP Morgan's $2 .8 billion estimate. That sounds like a crushing amount until you set it next to how much of this stock actually trades. Take a look at this chart. Just one week of strategy trading, the week ending October 9th, was $15 .3 billion. An average single day of trading for strategy stock this year is $2 .9 billion. So the entire forced sale that everyone is in a panic about fits inside less than one normal trading day for the stock. Now I'm not going to tell you it's nothing, because the timing is what makes this thing really stink. Index funds don't spread their selling out. Their job is to match the index exactly. So they will sell at the closing bell on the day that the change takes effect, which means most of that $2 .8 billion hits in a single day on November 30th. Every trader on Wall Street knows the date and roughly the size, so they get there first. They front run it and they sell ahead of time in planning to buy the stock back from the index funds at the close. If we go back and look at 30 years worth of data from other stocks getting dropped from the S &P 500, the Russell, and the NASDAQ, it shows the same thing. Nearly all of the price damage happens between the announcement and the deadline. Well, you watched it start on Friday. Strategy closed down 9 .5 % at $136 .72, its ugliest day in months. Now, look at what Bitcoin did on the exact same day, and it'll tell you everything you need to know about whether or not this actually matters for Bitcoin. From Thursday's close to Friday's close, Bitcoin fell about 1%. That's half of what the NASDAQ lost and about a tenth of strategies dropped. It never broke $80 ,000, and it's held there all weekend. Zoom out to October 2nd, and it's the same picture. Strategy stock is down about 15%, chip stocks are down almost 14%, and Bitcoin is down just 4%. For reference, that's better than the NASDAQ and the S &P 500. The index is that Bitcoin is typically more sensitive than. For an asset people still call too volatile to own, Bitcoin just held its ground while basically everything around it that it's supposed to be correlated to is blowing up. I can already hear the comments, wait a minute, Joe, billions of dollars are for selling and Bitcoin is supposed to shrug that off. Well, here's why it can. Not just the price data that I showed you a moment ago, but when index funds sell strategies stock, not one Bitcoin gets sold. The funds just sell shares to other buyers of shares. Think about it like a house getting sold. The deed changes hands, but the house doesn't move an inch. You don't pick it up and move it somewhere else. Strategy is roughly 850 ,000 Bitcoin, worth about $69 billion to stay right on its balance sheet. But there's one place that this can hurt Bitcoin, and it's that number that I told you to hold on to at the beginning. Strategy buys Bitcoin by selling new stock and a dividend -paying share called STRC, and then it turns that cash into new Bitcoin purchases. Well, that only works well when the stock trades for more than the Bitcoin behind it. The number for that is called MNAV, or the ratio of the market value to the net asset value, which is basically the stock's price compared with the Bitcoin the company actually owns. Above 1, every new share strategy sells brings in more Bitcoin than it gives away. And at 1, the machine stalls. Well, right now, it's sitting right around 1, and $2 .8 billion of force selling makes it harder to push back above. So for a stretch, the single biggest corporate buyer of Bitcoin on Earth could buy less. And that's a real headwind into November. And yet, the people paid to study this stock aren't selling. They're actually more bullish on it than basically everything else in the market. Take a look right here. This board ranks the biggest stocks in the market by how bullish analysts are on them. Using Wall Street ratings plus market analysts scored on how often they've been right, with the paid promoters totally thrown out. So this is an objective analysis. And over the last 30 days, 57 analysts weighed in on MSTR, Strategies Common Stock, and it came out 92 % bullish. For reference, this ranked first on the board, ahead of every single one of the Magnificent Seven, the most valuable companies in the world. The bear case they list is Bitcoin itself collapsing. They are more bullish on strategy stock than any other stock in the US stock market today. And none of them list the MSCI removal as a reason to be bearish. And since August 2020, right before its first Bitcoin buy, strategy is up more than 1000 % through Friday's drop, against 128 % for the S &P 500 and 137 % for the NASDAQ. So to say this differently, a rule changed, so a computer is being forced to sell. The people who actually looked are more bullish than ever. So that's part one, that's the selling. Part two is what's lining up on the other side of it. And it's a part that almost nobody's putting next to this doom and gloom headline about MSCI's ruling. On Thursday, the same day that MSCI published his decision, Charles Schwab, one of the biggest brokerages in America, finished rolling out Bitcoin access to its customers. Schwab has 40 .3 million active brokerage accounts and $13 .33 trillion in client assets. Trading opened up in May, and as of this week, customers can now move Bitcoin in and out, not just the Bitcoin ETFs. Vanguard, the giant of index fund investing and a firm that spent years refusing to touch Bitcoin, opened its platform to the Spot Bitcoin Funds last December, and it has more than 50 million brokerage customers and over $11 trillion. In a Bank of America's Merrill, advisors can now recommend putting 1 % to 4 % of a client's portfolio in Bitcoin, retirement accounts included, with no minimum net worth. If you just put Schwamm and Vanguard together, that's roughly $24 trillion in client assets that now sits one click away from Bitcoin. If Schwa's clients put 1 % of their assets into Bitcoin, the low end of what Merrill's advisors can now recommend, that's $133 billion. That's roughly 47 times the entire forced sale of strategy stock, which, to remind you again, is lower than one day of strategy's volume. Coming from one brokerage at the most conservative allocation on the table. The biggest banks are building the plumbing, too. Deutsche Bank, the largest bank in Germany, got the regulatory green light on October 12th, just a few days ago, and it says Bitcoin custody for its corporate and institutional clients is just weeks away with Asia coming next. And the money that's already inside isn't leaving. The U .S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold about 1 .28 million Bitcoin, more than $105 billion, after roughly $57 billion of net inflows since they launched. One asset manager surveyed 15 of the largest institutions in the world, so pensions, endowments and sovereign wealth funds, and not one of them cut its Bitcoin during the brutal 50 % drop from our all -time high at $126 ,000 to $58 ,000. Several of them bought even more. At least one sovereign wealth fund sold part of its gold in currency reserves just to buy more Bitcoin. That's how much the large institutions are valuing Bitcoin right now. And Washington has a proposed rule on the table that would open 401k plans, one of the largest pools of savings in the country to Bitcoin. It isn't final yet, but it's moving. I want to be honest about one thing. The doors are open, and the money hasn't fully walked through them yet. The ETFs have seen about $760 million of net outflows since October 7th. But compare the size of what's being built with the size of what MSCI is forcing out. On one side, $2 .8 billion of a single stock on a single day. On the other, tens of millions of investors and tens of trillions of dollars that just got a Bitcoin button. So that's the answer to what Wall Street kicking Saylor out does to Bitcoin. It hits the stock, it could slow the biggest corporate buyer for a brief period of time, but ultimately it forces zero Bitcoin to be sold onto the market, while the biggest firms on Wall Street build the on -ramps for everyone else. But that still leaves part three, the number that matters most for your Bitcoin. In a minute, I'll show you what Saylor did this morning and why the next trip to $100 ,000 and beyond should look nothing like the last one. Real quick, a word from today's video sponsors, these guys make this content possible. Most people watching this own Bitcoin the exact same way. They paid full price on an exchange, but a smaller group of business owners, family offices, and investors is getting theirs a different way. They own the machines that make it. 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Well, Salt Shield by Salt Lending is the answer to that. It's an optional upgrade to your Bitcoin -backed loan, it's a one -time fee, and it takes price -related liquidation risk off the table for the life of your loan. As long as you're current on payments, Bitcoin can fall as hard as it wants, and your stack doesn't get sold out from under you. Which matters because the reason to borrow hasn't changed. You might need cash, you don't want to sell, and selling costs you everything those coins do afterwards. Not to mention, Salt's been doing this since 2016. They're the original Bitcoin -backed lenders, still here while most of the names you remember from 2022 aren't. I got an exclusive rate discount on a new loan just for you guys. Visit saltlending .com slash joe, that's saltlending .com slash joe, and use code joe50salt to claim it. Never sell it, borrow against it. And every cycle, the drawdown comes, and most holders just sit there and take it. But serious money hedges instead. It hedges the downside on what it already holds, and it hedges the upside on what it's still waiting to buy. Well, now you can do both with Bitcoin perps on call sheet. Open a small short size to the part of your stack you want hedged, and if the cycle turns, gains on that hedge offset part of the drawdown. But if Bitcoin keeps running, the hedge costs you, and that's the price of protection. If you're buying soon and worried price runs first, a small long position covers that side until you can buy a spot. Keep leverage low and treat it like insurance. Use my link below and get $25 once you put your first $50 position on. Special thanks to Simple Mining, Salt, and Colshi for sponsoring today's video, and now back to the show. MSCI publishes the final list of companies that it's going to exclude from its indexes on November 11th. If you want to know the second that it drops, hit subscribe, and I'll break it down that day. Now, back to this morning, because the man at the center of all of this just showed you exactly how he sees it. Tomorrow is October 19th, the same date as the 1987 crash, when the Dow lost 22 .6 % in a single day, its biggest one -day drop ever. Into all of that at 8 .45 a .m. this morning, Michael Saylor posted his chart with one line, we found more room for art. It shows 118 separate Bitcoin purchases since 2020 through both bull markets, bear markets, and we're experiencing now. An average cost of $75 ,444 a coin and a gain of about $5 .2 billion even after the horrible year that Bitcoin has had. Historically, that Sunday post has come the day before strategy announces another purchase it isn't filed yet so treat it as a signal until tomorrow morning but three days after the worst index news that strategy has received in years with its stock under billions of dollars before selling on the eve of the most famous crash anniversary on the calendar the man running the company is signaling he's still buying bitcoin which brings us to part three for years 100 000 was the number most people never thought Bitcoin would even get there. And when it finally did, the selling was enormous. The day Bitcoin first broke $100 ,000, long -term holders, the people who'd held for months or years, took profits at a record $2 .1 billion a day. Over the cycle, they cashed out more than 3 .4 million Bitcoin, more than in the entire 2021 cycle. One investor from Bitcoin's earliest days sold more than 80 ,000 coins, over $9 billion, in one of the largest Bitcoin trades in history. And where every earlier cycle had one big wave of long -term holders selling, this one had three. And that selling is why the last cycle was the smallest on record. We only went from $16 ,500 up to $126 ,000. Look at this chart. From the low to its high, Bitcoin's 2011 cycle ran about 574 times. In 2013, about 539 times. 2017, more than 100 times. 2021, about 21 times. In the last cycle, from about $15 ,500 to $126 ,000, Bitcoin ran just 8 .2 times. Most people take the wrong lesson from that chart and assume Bitcoin's best runs are a thing of the past, and it's not going to be an outperformer anytime soon. A lot of that shrinking is due to Bitcoin just becoming a bigger asset, and it's more difficult to grow a bigger asset by the same percentage just because of the law of large numbers. but a huge share of the last cycle went to absorbing every holder who'd been waiting their entire life to sell Bitcoin at six figures. And that selling is done. The people who wanted out at the psychological milestone of $100 ,000 got out. Selling at a loss by long -term holders is down about 85 % from its August peak. Holders in profit are now moving about four coins for every one sold at a loss. And at the June low, it was one for every 12th. The bear market that followed fell about 52%, the shallowest in Bitcoin's history, against 78%, 84%, and 87 % in the cycles that preceded it. It never closed below the average price that every holder paid for their coins, which it did in both 2018 and 2022. Now look, I'm not going to tell you there's no one left to sell. Plenty of people who bought in the last year or two have an average cost between 88K and 100K, and some of them will sell to get their money back on the way up. And in fact, it's one of the reasons why Bitcoin is stuck where it is right now. We are working through those sellers. But the crowd that sold because $100 ,000 was the dream has already sold. So the next time Bitcoin gets to 100K, I don't think it chops around there. I think it goes straight through it. And the next real milestone after that is $250 ,000, a quarter of the way to million. That's about three times from here and about $5 trillion of market value. Bigger than all but a handful of companies on earth. And it would add roughly $191 ,000 per Bitcoin from this cycle's low. The last cycle added about $111 ,000 per coin. The most Bitcoin had ever gained in a single run. So $250K would be close to double the biggest dollar move in Bitcoin's history. You probably see some resistance at $250K. The real wall is $500 ,000. And that's no coincidence, to beat the last cycle's 8 .2x, Bitcoin has to get to about $482 ,000. That's the level where this becomes a bigger cycle than the last one, and it's where I'd expect a real fight between buyers and sellers. So could the road there get bumpy at first? Of course. Hedge funds are still unwinding, the midterms are November 3rd, and a drift back towards $75k is on the table. Near term, expect plenty of choppiness. But zoom out. In strategy's removal from MSCI is a speed bump on the road to get what could be the biggest run of this entire asset's life. So what does this mean for you? The headline is about a stock, and that stock is going to take hits through November. Your Bitcoin is an entirely separate asset with the same 21 million coins it had last week and the week before that. And a wall of Wall Street money now has a door to it. So let me bring this home. Remember the two things I asked you to hold onto at the start of the video. The first was the closing bell on November 30th. In 43 days, a rulebook forces up to $2 .8 billion of strategy stock onto the market. And history says most of that damage gets done before the bell even rings. The second was that number sitting around one. That's MNAV. If it climbs back above one, once the four sellers are gone, the biggest corporate buyer of Bitcoin on Earth is back with fresh fuel. The index funds have no choice. Sailor, a day before Black Monday's anniversary is choosing to buy more Bitcoin, and firms holding tens of trillions of dollars just put a Bitcoin button in front of tens of millions of investors. And the sellers who spent a decade waiting for $100K already got their exit. Bitcoin fell about 1 % on the worst headline its biggest buyer has had in years. That's what a speed bump on a long and large bull market looks like. Let me know in the comments when Bitcoin gets back to $100 ,000. Do you guys think it chops around or does it go straight through if you want the full map for the next few weeks i laid out the five tests bitcoin has to get through before the midterms in my video from thursday and it's right here go watch that one next and i'll see you over there and if you enjoyed today's video hit the subscribe button down below and turn on the notifications so you get notified whenever a new video goes live and check out the hard money room it's a community i built for serious bitcoin investors weekly live discussions with me plus a live dashboard that shows you exactly where we are in the cycle link for that is at the video description and if you want my take in your inbox every single morning, sign up for my free newsletter down below. I'll see you in the next one.